Gdansk, 7 April 2014 Gdansk, 7 April 2014. Report by Hungarian unions affiliated to industriAll Europe Mining and Energy Industry Workers' Trade Union.

Gdansk, 7 April 2014

Report by Hungarian unions affiliated to industriAll Europe

• Mining and Energy Industry Workers' Trade Union (Miners & Light industry)

• Building, Wood and Building Material Workers' Unions (Builders)

• MOL Miners' Union / Oil & Gas (MOL)• Metalworkers' Trade Union Federation (Metal)• Hungarian Chemical, Energy and Allied Workers'

Unions (Chemical)• United Federation of Workers' Trade Union of

Electricity (Electricity)

Elections

• 6 April 2014• one round system – two round before• there are no practical numbers• Hungarian citizens not residing in Hungary may

vote for the party-list• New constituency borders, reduced number of

constituencies (from 176 to 106), 93 seats form party-list; alltogether 186 seats less than before

Elections

• National list: for constituency seats at least 500 signatures are needed. A nationallist can be set up by the party having set candidates in at least 27 constituencies (out of the 106) in at least 9 counties (out of 19) and Budapest. Every citizen may support candidates of several parties.

• Mandates will be distributed among candidate organizations above the

threshold (5% in case of one-party-list, and 10% in case of two parties' joint list, 15% in case of three or more parties' joint list and and minority representatives above 5% thershold respectively).

• Minorities, that will not reach the 5% threshold (out of all minority-list

votes, not out of all votes) or will not get at least one seat, will be able to send a minority spokesman to the National Assembly from 2014, who has right only to speak but not to vote.

Results of the preliminary poll:

• Number of parties running candidates in the election : 31

• 1707 canndidates – number of candidates has significantly increased

• The present governing conservative party Fidesz-KDNP …. mandates

• The opposition league (MSZP, DK, Együtt-PM)• Jobbik – a right wing exstremist party • LMP – a liberal, green party

Effectiveness of Governance

Development of the CDS spreads and the economic policy

Changing figures of GDP %compared with the same period of the previous year

I. II. III.

IV. I. II. III.

IV. I. II. III.

IV. I. II. III.

IV. I. II. III.

IV. I. II. III.

IV. I. II. III.

IV.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

1.4-0.2-0.3

-0.4

2.1 2.41.7

-2.3

-7.2-8.1

-7.6

-4.4

0.11

1.8 1.92.5

1.5 1.4 1.4

-0.70000000000000

1-1.3-1.5

-2.7

-0.9

0.5

1.82.7

Macroeconomic indicators

2009 2010 2011 2012

Budget deficit (percentage of GDP) 3,6 % 3,2% 2,94% 2,1 %

GDP growth(annual average) -6,75% 1,2% 1,7 % - 1,7%

Inflation4,2 % 4,9% 3,9% 5,7 %

Unemployment10,5 % 11.2% 10,7 % 10,9

Real wages-2,4 % 1,9% 1,4% -0,3

2014: economic course according to the budget act

The main macroeconomic factors according to the various forecasts, (%)

Megnevezés

Economic forecast 2014

Governme

ntSzázadvég GKI

Business actor A'

Business actor B'

OECD

EC

 September

November

September

November

September

November

September

November

November 

November 

1. GDP growth 2,0 1,8 2,2 1,3 1,3 1,9 1,9 1,7  - 2,0 1,8

2. Houshold consumption

1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 2,1 2,1 1,7  - 1,2 1,2

3. Public consumption 0,0 . . . . 0,0 0,0 0,1  - . 1,5

4. Gross fixed asset accumulation

5,9 1,7 . 2,0 2,0 3,0 3,0 3,7  - 1,1 4,0

5. 4. Consumers’ price index (yearly average)

2,4 2,7 2,7 2,5 2,1 2,9 2,9 1,7  - 2,1 2,2

6. State budget deficit (ESA95)

-2,9 -2,6 -2,8 -2,9 -2,9 -3,1 -3,1 -3,0  - -2,9 -3,0

EUR/HUF rate

Before the elections 2010 – 261,60

Before the elections 2014 – 308,62

difference: 19 % (~50 HUF)

State debt

Liquidation of the private pension fund

Development of inflation

Forrás: KSH

Rezsicsökkentés

Development of industrial productioncompared to the same period of the previous year

Employment in the national economy (figures in thousands)

national economy

private sectora budget

Költségvetés without public

workerspublic workers

2010 2 701,90 1 826,70 772,6 682,5 97,7

2011 2 691,50 1 851,20 734,6 667,5 71,1

2012 2 674,40 1817,2 751,3 654,5 106,3

2013 2 698,60 1817,9 786,0 671,1 114,9Forrás: KSH

Number of employed in the private sector(in thousands)

Structure of the changes in employment

2012. január

2012. febru

ár

2012. márci

us

2012.április

2012.május

2012.június

2012.júliu

s

2012.augusztus

2012.szeptember

2012.október

2012.november

2012.december

2013.január

2013.febru

ár

2013.márci

us

2013.április

2013.május

2013.június

2013.júliu

s

2013.augusztus

2013.szeptember

2013.október

2013.november

2013.december

3400

3500

3600

3700

3800

3900

4000

4100

4200

4300foglalkoztatottság

foglalkoztatottság mínusz közmunka

foglalkoztatottság mínusz közmunka mínusz külföldön dolgozók

Forrás: KSH

Ennyivel lett több állás 2012-2013, ezer fő

Unemployment in the EU

Development of the average gross wage of employed workers a nemzetgazdaságban

PeriodNational economy

IndustryExtractive industry

Electricity,gas and

steam production

air-conditioning

Construction

2010. 188 048 190 230 209 746 306 646 146 613

2011. 197 911 199 895 225 290 315 943 149 741

2012. 208 636 217 088 239 884 337 446 156 764

2013. 215 676 226 270 248 555 344 240 169 550

Development of the minimum wage and its real value

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000Gross minimum

wage

Net minimum wage

Net minimium wage at 2009 prices

Ft

Forrás: Focus Economics, CEE : Visegrádi országok és Románia illetve Bulgária

Expected economic growth(Focus Economics, September 2013; %)

THE MAIN DIFFICULTY IS THAT – BECAUSE OF SOME STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS – HUNGARY IS LAGGING BEHIND IN THE REGION REGARDING ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ON THE MIDDLE RUN

ACCORDING TO THE PRESENT MARKET EXPECTATIONS

CEE Min-Max (Mo. nélkül)

CEE átlag (Mo. nélkül)

Magyarország

Előrejelzés

Investment in proportion to GDP (%)

Forrás: Eurostat, CEE : Visegrádi országok és Románia illetve Bulgária

STRUCTURAL PROBLEM: THE INVESTMENT RATE IS THE LOWEST IN HUNGARY IN THE REGION

* A 2014. évi költségvetési törvényjavaslat szerint a beruházás 2014-ben 5,9%-kal nő. Elkezdődik a felzárkózás.

Forrás: Nemzeti Bankok CEE : Visegrádi országok és Románia illetve Bulgária

Net credit outplacement from the banks to the private sector (seasonally adjusted, in proportion to GDP %)

STRUCTURAL PROBLEM: CREDIT ACTIVITY HAS BEEN THE LOWEST IN THE REGION FOR THE LAST 4 YEARS NOW

Company credit in the region

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

2008

. ok

t.no

v.de

c.20

09.

jan.

feb.

már

c.áp

r.m

áj.

jún.

júl.

aug.

szep

t.ok

t.no

v.de

c.20

10.

jan.

feb.

már

c.áp

r.m

áj.

jún.

júl.

aug.

szep

t.ok

t.no

v.de

c.20

11.

jan.

feb.

már

c.áp

r.m

áj.

jún.

júl.

aug.

szep

t.ok

t.no

v.de

c.20

12.

jan.

feb.

már

c.áp

r.m

áj.

jún.

júl.

aug.

szep

t.ok

t.no

v.de

c.

%% A vállalati hitelezés alakulás a régióban

BG PL CZ HU RO SK Balti államok Eurozóna

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

3043,847,7%

3070,950,3%

3200,151,7%

3132,353,8%

3702,757,2%

4286,959,5%

2163,333,9%

2020,233,1%

1860,530,1% 1462,0

25,1%

1609,424,9%

1657,823%

1172,418,4% 1017,5

16,6%1125,818,2% 1224,6

21,1%

1157,217,9%

1265,317,5%

Gazdálkodó szervezetek be-fizetései

Lakosság befizetései

Fogyasztáshoz kapcsolt adók

Mrd

Ft

Forrás: NGM, ÁSZ*Költségvetési előirányzat

Statistics and structure of tax revenue of the central budget (according to law)

•VAT – 27%, income tax 16 % for everyone, company tax 10% (up to 500 MHUF, over this income19%)

Forrás: Eurostat, Európai Bizottság 2012 őszi előrejelzés 2012-2013-ra

Gross sum of the budget expenditures (in proportion to GDP %)

STRUCTURAL PROBLEM: TOTAL EXPENDITURE OF THE STATE BUDGET IS STILL HIGH COMPARED TO THE REGION

Forrás: Eurostat, Európai Bizottság 2012 őszi előrejelzés 2012-2013-ra; * A 2014. évi költségvetési törvényjavaslat szerint 2014 végére 76,4% várható

The consolidated state debt (in proportion to GDP %)

STRUCTURAL PROBLEM: THE STATE DEBT IN HUNGARY IS STILL THE HIGHEST IN THE REGION WHICH CAUSES VULNERABILITY

81,0

Debt stock in proportion to GDP %

Forrás: NGM, Eurostat, Európai Bizottság

Contracted competitiveness ranking 2008-2013

• Hungary has been falling behind compared to the Visegrad countries from 2008

• The situation of Hungary has been similar to the one of the Mediterranean countries

Actual TU developments

Report on collective bargaining: • Agreement in the Permanent Consultation Forum (VKF):

gross wage increase 3,5 %, qualified minimum wage: 118.000 HUF, minimum wage 101.500 HUF

• Recommendation for subsectors, electricity, mining, industry, company or company level agreements

• Retaining and recruiting members• Training, education (projects)• Inclusion of youth workers, restarting dual vocational training• Close co-operation of industrial trade unions (metalworkers,

mining, construction, typography, meat trade). Meeting of operative bodies on 27 March.

• The new confederation MSZSZ has been officially registered.

• Project on NOx occupational exposure limits and use of chemicals in mining

• EVDSZ-LIGA project• Sectoral social dialogue after the crisis • Quality of collective agreements getting

weaker, conditions of concluding agreements getting worse

• Changing of employers’ behaviour, bargaining getting more difficult

• Consequences of IndustriAll conference in Madrid, tasks regarding the EU Parliament elections

ACTUAL TU DEVELOPMENTS

Demonstration of miners on 29 January 2014

Demands:• Occupational pension for

open pit miners• Average earning calculation• Disabled category III

disability benefits for miners

We may need international support in the future

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

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