FY13 Budget and Caseload Update Fiscal Committee February 4, 2013

FY13 Budget and Caseload Update

Fiscal CommitteeFebruary 4, 2013

FY13 Caseload Overview Income Eligible: The Income Eligible account full year forecast is projecting a

surplus of $13.1M which is approximately $400K more than last month’s projected surplus of $12.7M. Effective January 30, 2013 Contract Providers and Family Child Care Systems with 5% or less vacancies in relation to total awarded slots received a 5.714% increase in slots. The contracts and systems have been instructed to allocate 385 slots to the programs with a self-assessed QRIS level 2 or above. Slots are limited to Infants, Toddlers, and Preschoolers. School Age is excluded. The estimated cost is $1.28M. This estimate is subject to change once the region and age groups have been distributed. Subsequent attrition will be reviewed each month and may result in additional contract slots. The forecast includes Summer Only care for 779 children for June 2013.

DTA-Related Caseload: The forecasted deficit has decreased to $5.8M, a decrease of $150K. The December caseload forecast projected the following for November to December:

a 1.7% increase for School Age children; we are reporting a .7% decrease, a variance of 2.4%.

a 7% decrease for Infants, Toddlers and Preschoolers combined; we are reporting a 11% decrease for Toddlers, a variance of 4%.

Supportive: The projected surplus of $2.8M decreased to a surplus of $2.5M. Total children served in December was 1% greater than forecasted resulting in the forecast increase in spending of approximately $235k.

Summary: After accounting for the additional 385 contract slots ($1.28M), reducing the current surplus by the forecasted DTA deficit ($5.8M), and adding the anticipated DCF surplus, the overall surplus in the caseload accounts is approximately $9.8M.

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FY13 Caseload Overview SummaryAs of December2012

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FY2013 Caseload Spending FY2013 Budget Forecast

Variance Forecast vs.

Budget Income Eligible Contract/Flex 134,436,467$ 124,634,256$ 9,802,211$ Voucher 88,414,709$ 85,152,392$ 3,262,317$ Grants 9,019,276$ 9,019,276$ -$

231,870,452$ 218,805,924$ 13,064,528$

DTA Voucher 125,495,740$ 131,311,150$ (5,815,410)$

Supportive Contract/Flex 76,630,875$ 74,049,733$ 2,581,142$ Voucher 100,000$ 142,277$ (42,277)$ Grants 600,000$ 600,000$ -$

77,330,875$ 74,792,010$ 2,538,865$ Total 434,697,067$ 424,909,084$ 9,787,983$

FY13 Caseload Overview Summary

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FY2013 Caseload Spending -November FY2013 Budget Forecast

Variance Forecast vs.

Budget I ncome Eligible Contract/Flex 134,436,467$ 125,208,236$ 9,228,231$ Voucher 88,414,709$ 84,929,055$ 3,485,654$ Grants 9,019,276$ 9,019,276$ -$

231,870,452$ 219,156,568$ 12,713,884$ DTA *Voucher 125,495,740$ 131,467,835$ (5,972,095)$

Supportive Contract/Flex 76,630,875$ 73,780,144$ 2,850,731$ Voucher 100,000$ 157,433$ (57,433)$ Grants 600,000$ 600,000$ -$

77,330,875$ 74,537,577$ 2,793,298$ Total 434,697,067$ 425,161,980$ 9,535,087$

FY2013 Caseload Spending - October FY2013 Budget Forecast

Variance Forecast vs.

Budget I ncome Eligible Contract/Flex 134,436,467$ 125,370,240$ 9,066,227$ Voucher 88,414,709$ 85,661,580$ 2,753,129$ Grants 9,019,276$ 9,019,276$ -$

231,870,452$ 220,051,097$ 11,819,355$ DTA *Voucher 125,495,740$ 132,243,742$ (6,748,002)$

Supportive Contract/Flex 76,630,875$ 74,710,829$ 1,920,046$ Voucher 100,000$ 87,795$ 12,205$ Grants 600,000$ 600,000$ -$

77,330,875$ 75,398,623$ 1,932,252$ Total 434,697,067$ 427,693,462$ 7,003,605$

FY13 Caseload Overview Summary

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FY2013 Caseload Spending - September FY2013 Budget Forecast

Variance Forecast vs. Budget

I ncome Eligible Contract/Flex 134,436,467$ 125,545,863$ 8,890,604$ Voucher 88,414,709$ 85,644,765$ 2,769,944$ Grants 9,019,276$ 9,019,276$ -$

231,870,452$ 220,209,904$ 11,660,548$ DTA *Voucher 125,495,740$ 129,037,458$ (3,541,718)$

Supportive Contract/Flex 76,630,875$ 75,999,574$ 631,301$ Voucher 100,000$ 135,320$ (35,320)$ Grants 600,000$ 600,000$ -$

77,330,875$ 76,734,894$ 595,981$ Total 434,697,067$ 425,982,255$ 8,714,812$

FY2013 Caseload Spending - August 2012 FY2013 Budget Forecast

Variance Forecast vs. Budget

I ncome Eligible Contract/Flex 134,436,467$ 125,502,294$ 8,934,173$ Voucher 88,414,709$ 86,603,751$ 1,810,958$ Grants 9,019,276$ 9,019,276$ -$

231,870,452$ 221,125,321$ 10,745,131$ DTA *Voucher 125,495,740$ 129,038,794$ (3,543,054)$

Supportive Contract/Flex 76,630,875$ 76,637,299$ (6,424)$ Voucher 100,000$ 148,086$ (48,086)$ Grants 600,000$ 600,000$ -$

77,330,875$ 77,385,385$ (54,510)$ Total 434,697,067$ 427,549,500$ 7,147,567$

FY13 Caseload Overview Summary

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FY2013 Caseload

Spending - July 2012

FY2013 Budget Forecast

Variance Forecast vs.

Budget I ncome Eligible

Contract/Flex 134,436,467$ 126,063,350$ 8,373,117$ Voucher 88,414,709$ 82,629,533$ 5,785,176$ Grants 9,019,276$ 9,019,276$ -$

231,870,452$ 217,712,159$ 14,158,293$ DTA

*Voucher 125,495,740$ 128,621,652$ (3,125,912)$

Supportive

Contract/Flex 76,630,875$ 77,047,992$ (417,117)$ Voucher 100,000$ 157,583$ (57,583)$ Grants 600,000$ 600,000$ -$

77,330,875$ 77,805,575$ (474,700)$ Total 434,697,067$ 424,139,386$ 10,557,681$

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FY 2013 Income Eligible(3000-4060)

Income Eligible SFY13 Forecast for December 2012

MonthCaseload Budget

Actual Caseload Variance

Budget Spending P lan P rojection

2013 Actual**/Forecast

Expenditures YTD Variance

Jun-12 32,215 32,215 N/AJul-12 31,364 31,400 36 18,607,517$ 18,481,277$ 18,931,315$ Aug-12 31,325 31,561 236 18,902,260$ 18,939,848$ 18,893,727$ Sep-12 30,933 30,638 (295) 17,350,379$ 14,967,281$ 21,276,826$ Oct-12 30,457 29,845 (612) 17,632,030$ 17,689,214$ 21,219,642$ Nov-12 30,398 29,721 (677) 17,302,718$ 16,871,260$ 21,651,100$ Dec-12 30,237 29,392 (845) 16,902,323$ 16,185,526$ 22,367,897$ Jan-13 29,950 17,423,935$ 18,762,529$ 21,029,303$ Feb-13 30,048 16,954,176$ 16,448,451$ 21,535,028$ Mar-13 29,955 17,050,124$ 17,355,541$ 21,229,611$ Apr-13 29,788 17,311,495$ 18,011,156$ 20,529,950$ May-13 29,256 17,370,697$ 18,574,981$ 19,325,666$ Jun-13 29,924 17,487,919$ 17,499,586$ 19,313,999$

GRANTS 9,019,276$ 9,019,276$ TOTAL 219,314,849$ 218,805,924$

231,870,452 231,870,452 12,555,603 13,064,528

- Blue : FY13 Actual/ Forecast Expenditures

* Budgeted caseload assumes access is closed (Vouchers) and terminations will be consistent with historical trend.

- Additional savings may be realised by parent fees.* Spending P lan P rojection is maximum obligation, flex , teen and homeless contracts. * Actual caseload count is the count of services rendered for the reporting month. P lease note a child could receive multiple services.

* Caseload changes for a prior reporting month is driven by late billing.

Surplus/DeficiencyFY13 Appropriation

**2013 Actuals/Forecast include Infant/Toddler Increase P rojection - Actual dollars represent expenditures billed and paid as of the date the forecast was prepared and may include late billing.

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FY 2013 DTA Related(3000-4050)

MonthCaseload

BudgetActual

Caseload VarianceBudget Spending P lan Projection

2013 Actual**/Forecast

Expenditures

YTD Variance (Original Spending

P lan)Jun-12 16,920 16,920 N/AJul-12 16,019 16,298 279 10,717,525$ 11,013,445$ (295,919)$

Aug-12 16,060 16,376 316 11,233,530$ 11,425,630$ (488,020)$ Sep-12 16,419 16,336 (83) 9,986,720$ 9,449,917$ 48,784$ Oct-12 16,201 16,799 598 11,002,439$ 11,587,681$ (536,458)$ Nov-12 16,428 16,922 494 10,991,409$ 11,372,577$ (917,626)$ Dec-12 16,358 16,563 205 10,447,142$ 10,869,617$ (1,340,101)$ Jan-13 15,912 11,129,920$ 11,412,188$ (1,622,368)$ Feb-13 16,180 10,333,239$ 10,091,255$ (1,380,384)$ Mar-13 16,462 10,513,483$ 10,778,076$ (1,644,978)$ Apr-13 16,631 11,127,055$ 11,370,754$ (1,888,677)$ May-13 16,498 11,539,709$ 11,780,551$ (2,129,519)$ Jun-13 16,374 9,959,024$ 10,159,460$ (2,329,954)$

TOTAL 128,981,195$ 131,311,150$ 125,495,740$

(5,815,410)$

* Caseload changes for a prior reporting month is driven by late billing.

DTA SFY13 Forecast for December 2012

* Actual caseload count is the count of services rendered for the reporting month. Please note a child could receive multiple services.

- Actual dollars represent expenditures billed and paid as of the date the forecast w as prepared and may include late billing. **2013 Actuals/Forecast include Infant/Toddler Increase Projection

- Blue: FY13 Actual/Forecast Expenditures

FY13 AppropriationSurplus/Deficiency

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MonthCaseload Budget

Actual Caseload Variance

Budget Spending

P lan Projection

2013 Actual**/Forecast

Expenditures

YTD Variance (Original

Spending P lan)Jun-12 6,010 6,010 N/AJul-12 6,097 6,013 (84) 6,588,626$ 6,386,341$ 202,285$ Aug-12 6,071 5,961 (110) 6,865,945$ 6,514,398$ 553,832$ Sep-12 6,084 5,814 (270) 5,983,846$ 5,609,805$ 927,873$ Oct-12 6,084 5,644 (440) 6,876,242$ 6,284,024$ 1,520,092$ Nov-12 6,159 5,584 (575) 6,635,389$ 6,075,820$ 2,079,660$ Dec-12 6,188 5,583 (605) 6,321,780$ 6,016,159$ 2,385,281$ Jan-13 6,172 6,911,188$ 6,516,763$ 2,779,706$ Feb-13 6,216 6,341,848$ 5,691,090$ 3,430,464$ Mar-13 6,313 6,411,617$ 6,025,661$ 3,816,421$ Apr-13 6,314 6,717,704$ 6,317,011$ 4,217,114$ May-13 6,314 7,023,054$ 6,609,832$ 4,630,335$ Jun-13 6,541 6,562,792$ 6,145,105$ 5,048,022$

GRANTS 600,000$ 600,000$ TOTAL 79,840,032$ 74,792,010$

77,330,875$ 2,538,865$

- Blue : FY13 Actual/ Forecast Expenditures

**2013 Actuals/Forecast include Infant/Toddler Increase P rojection

* Caseload changes for a prior reporting month is driven by late billing.

SUPPORTIVE SFY13 Forecast for December 2012

- Actual dollars represent expenditures billed and paid as of the date the forecast was prepared and may include late billing. * Actual caseload count is the count of services rendered for the reporting month. P lease note a child could receive multiple services.

FY13 AppropriationSurplus/Deficiency

FY 2013 Supportive (3000-3050)

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(Am

ount

in

Thou

sand

s)

FY2013 Income Eligible Total Caseload Actual/Forecast & Budgeted Expenditures

Total Appropriation of $231.9M includes $9,019,276 for Grants and $600K Reserve for Late BillingDecember 2012 Voucher Expenditures paid is $6,414,114Actual/Forecast includes projected cost for Infant Toddler Rate Increase

Gray : FY13 Appropriation (Vouchers, Contracts & Grants)

Blue: Actual/Forecast Expenditures

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun $-

$20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000

$100,000 $120,000 $140,000 $160,000 $180,000 $200,000 $220,000 $240,000

$19

,233

$38

,924

$54

,643

$73

,084

$10

1,98

1

$10

7,64

4

$12

7,15

8

$14

4,35

8

$16

2,46

5

$18

1,22

8

$20

0,55

5

$21

8,80

6

$19

,359

$39

,013

$57

,955

$77

,304

$96

,282

$11

4,81

8

$13

3,95

9

$15

2,54

6

$17

1,23

0

$19

0,21

7

$20

9,30

5

$23

1,87

0

Actual/Forecast FY13 Budget

FY2013 DTA Caseload Actual/Forecast & Budgeted Expenditures

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(Am

ount

in

Thou

sand

s)

Blue: Actual/Forecast Expenditures

Gray : FY13 Appropriation

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun $-

$10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000

$100,000 $110,000 $120,000 $130,000 $140,000

$11

,013

$22

,439

$31

,889

$43

,477

$54

,849

$65

,719

$77

,131

$87

,222

$98

,000

$10

9,37

1

$12

1,15

2

$13

1,31

1

$10

,426

$21

,354

$31

,072

$41

,772

$52

,468

$62

,634

$73

,459

$83

,513

$93

,744

$10

4,57

4

$11

5,80

5

$12

5,49

6

Actual/Forecast FY13 Budget

FY2013 Supportive Caseload Actual/Forecast & Budgeted Expenditures

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(Am

ount

in

Thou

sand

s)

Blue: Actual/Forecast Expenditures

Gray : : FY13 Appropriation

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun $-

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

$100,000

$6,

436

$13

,001

$18

,661

$24

,995

$31

,120

$37

,187

$43

,753

$49

,494

$55

,570

$61

,937

$68

,597

$74

,792

$6,

428

$13

,124

$18

,967

$25

,673

$32

,147

$38

,317

$45

,058

$51

,248

$57

,507

$64

,062

$70

,913

$77

,331

Actual/Forecast FY13 Budget

FY12/13 IE Contract Slots - Regular and Flex

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Total Awarded Slots is 14488 and Allowable Flex Slots is 857

29 Vendors representing 40 contracts are Over 5% Flex (289)

**No. of children filling slots may be greater than slots awarded.

RegularFilled

RegularOpen

FlexFilled

FlexOpen

Flex -Over 5%

Flex -Under

5%11/1/ 2011 12,801.5 1,637.5 640.0 214.0 (495.5) 710.511/29/2011 13,029.5 1,429.5 623.5 232.5 (473.0) 705.51/ 3/2012 12,937.5 1,531.5 596.5 264.0 (438.0) 701.51/ 31/ 2012 13,213.5 1,257.5 585.5 274.5 (437.0) 711.53/ 1/2012 13,271.5 1,194.5 579.5 279.5 (432.0) 711.53/ 30/ 2012 13,391.0 1,071.0 604.5 254.5 (441.5) 696.04/ 30/ 2012 13,388.0 1,074.0 640.5 218.5 (451.0) 669.55/ 29/ 2012 13,266.0 1,197.0 596.5 278.5 (426.0) 704.57/ 1/2012 13,305.0 1,447.0 513.5 345.5 (381.5) 727.08/ 1/2012 12,978.0 1,530.0 492.5 365.5 (368.5) 734.09/ 28/ 2012 12,434.0 2,057.0 427.0 430.5 (309.0) 739.510/30/2012 12,751.5 1,738.5 427.0 430.5 (303.5) 725.011/28/2012 12,881.5 1,608.5 426.5 421.5 (289.0) 719.51/ 1/2013 12,783.5 1,706.5 400.0 457.0 (273.0) 730.01/ 31/ 2013 13,123.0 1,365.0 428.0 429.0 (289.0) 718.0

(2,000.0) -

2,000.0 4,000.0 6,000.0 8,000.0

10,000.0 12,000.0 14,000.0 16,000.0

New Children on Waitlist (Jan 2012 thru June 2012)

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Active Since Month Infant Preschool School Age

Toddler Unborn Total

06/01/2012 To 06/30/2012 349 411 648 312 132 1,852 05/01/2012 To 05/31/2012 388 467 570 359 152 1,936 04/01/2012 To 04/30/2012 372 390 444 355 146 1,707 03/01/2012 To 03/31/2012 419 465 458 380 159 1,881 02/01/2012 To 02/29/2012 351 389 353 318 148 1,559 01/01/2012 To 01/31/2012 335 351 352 289 117 1,444

Total 2,214 2,473 2,825 2,013 854 10,379

Note: This report shows the number of children who first time entered waitlist, as active child, within specified period of time and still active when the report is created.

New Children on Waitlist (July 2012 thru Jan 2013)

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Active Since Month Infant Preschool School Age

Toddler Unborn Total

1/1/2013 To 1/30/2013 422 427 493 382 153 1,877 12/01/2012 To 12/31/2012 292 275 315 223 96 1,201 11/01/2012 To 11/30/2012 354 358 313 365 116 1,506 10/01/2012 To 10/31/2012 471 531 591 457 171 2,221 09/01/2012 To 09/30/2012 564 662 695 503 160 2,584 08/01/2012 To 08/31/2012 453 550 676 507 139 2,325 07/01/2012 To 07/31/2012 409 462 542 386 145 1,944

Total 2,965 3,265 3,625 2,823 980 13,658

Note: This report shows the number of children who first time entered waitlist, as active child, within specified period of time and still active when the report is created.

Caseload Waitlist Since 12/2011

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*Waiting List Category 12/31/11 Total

1/31/12 Total

2/29/12 Total

3/31/12 Total

4/30/12 Total

5/31/12 Total

6/30/12 Total

7/31/12 Total

8/30/12 Total

9/30/12 Total

10/31/12 Total

11/30/12 Total

12/31/12 Total

01/31/13 Total

Child of Foster Care 143 153 149 162 205 216 215 227 241 255 269 276 282 288

Child of Homeless family 158 181 186 201 315 342 374 410 435 460 482 520 536 558

Child of Military Personnel 54 56 54 57 68 69 71 71 71 79 95 101 105 116

Child of Teen Parent 187 195 234 247 312 343 355 380 406 427 461 477 481 489

Child w ith Special Needs 975 1,031 1,083 1,149 1,449 1,577 1,676 1,765 1,890 1,978 2,056 2,117 2,198 2,234

Continuity of Care: Prior Year Summer Only

66 83 124 122 123 123 120 135 149

Continuity of Care: Aging Out 280 279 288 289 301 310 312 315 388 405 404 409 411 402

Continuity of Care: Approved Break in Service

301 303 309 315 337 353 359 383 437 448 450 442 451 470

Continuity of Care: ARRA 125 125 143 137 159 162 159 160 153 151 148 146 149 148

Continuity of Care: Geographic Relocation 73 84 86 90 118 123 134 142 168 182 171 182 186 198

Continuity of Care: Homeless Contract 8 8 8 10 16 17 18 19 17 20 20 25 27 29

Continuity of Care: Supportive Referral 100 108 112 114 184 204 226 233 245 247 255 269 279 288

Continuity of Care: Teen Parent Contract 20 20 22 21 23 23 23 23 27 31 32 32 32 28

General Priority 23,638 24,581 26,009 26,946 28,818 30,564 31,958 33,370 35,264 37,113 38,268 39,470 40,431 41,722

No Priority - Other Family Member 14 26 347 32 144 171 482 220 518 542 538 282 295 314

Grandparent/Guardian Families 329 337 31 361 461 482 631 504 616 590 561 541 547 565

Parent w ith Special Needs 509 531 570 551 657 681 193 734 235 253 268 805 806 805

Sibling: Contract 266 282 330 334 485 460 700 516 764 795 795 654 672 714

Sibling: Voucher 605 641 680 683 685 603 500 684 555 602 630 788 804 833

Summer only care 586 595 619 621 736 748 653 875 712 734 745 899 893 919

N/A - 656 636 944 623 867 876 888 556 541 523

Grand Total 28,371 29,536 31,260 32,320 36,129 38,150 40,066 41,778 44,131 46,311 47,659 49,111 50,261 51,792

* Waitlist Data as of September 2011 is reported from KinderWait** Excludes Unborn children, Children 13 or older, “0” zip codes and towns out of state.

FY14 House 1 Recommendations

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Line Item Descriptor FY12 FY13 GAA 9C ReductionsFY13 Total Available FY14 H.1

Diff FY14 H1 vs. FY13 Total

Available3000-1000 Administration $ 11,683,491 $ 12,322,954 $ (210,000) $ 12,112,954 $ 12,844,972 $ 732,018 3000-2000 Access Management $ 5,933,862 $ 5,933,862 $ - $ 5,933,862 $ 7,933,862 $ 2,000,000 3000-3050 Supportive $ 77,448,576 $ 77,330,875 $ - $ 77,330,875 $ 80,227,189 $ 2,896,314 3000-4050 TANF Related Child Care $ 132,458,313 $ 125,495,740 $ - $ 125,495,740 $ 128,063,499 $ 2,567,759 3000-4060 Income Eligible Child Care $ 232,897,940 $ 231,870,452 $ - $ 231,870,452 $ 226,697,976 $ (5,172,476)

3000-4065Early Education Provider Quality Enhancements $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 30,586,713 $ 30,586,713

3000-4070 Pre-School Initiative $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 25,150,000 $ 25,150,000 3000-4075 Infant Toddler $ - $ 31,600,000 $ 31,600,000 3000-4080 Quality Efforts $ - $ 30,000,000 $ 30,000,000

3000-4090Kindergarten Entry Assessment System $ - $ 3,200,000 $ 3,200,000

3000-5000 Grants to Head Start $ 7,500,000 $ 8,000,000 $ - $ 8,000,000 $ 8,000,000 $ - 3000-5075 UPK $ 7,500,000 $ 7,500,000 $ (67,617) $ 7,432,383 $ 7,432,383 $ - 3000-6075 Mental Health $ 750,000 $ 750,000 $ - $ 750,000 $ 750,000 $ -

3000-7050Services for Infants and Parents $ 18,186,633 $ 18,164,890 $ - $ 18,164,890 $ 18,164,890 $ -

3000-7051

Family Engagement to Support Reading Proficiency by Grade 3 $ 3,000,000 $ 3,000,000

3000-7070 Reach Out and Read $ 800,000 $ 750,000 $ - $ 750,000 $ 750,000 $ -

3000-8000Comprehensive Support Services $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 5,000,000 $ 5,000,000

495,158,815$ 488,118,773$ (277,617)$ 487,841,156$ 619,401,484$ 131,560,328$

FY14 Budget Process Prep •Initial maintenance building process for FY14. starts in the summer of 2012.

GOV

• Released on January 23, 2013. Funded EEC account at $619.4M, making significant investments in child care quality and access totaling $131M. Outside of the investments the Governor offered maintenance funding throughout the accounts

House • Released in April.

Senate • Released in early to mid May

Conf

• To reconcile the difference between the House and Senate versions a Conference committee is established comprising 3 members from each the House and Senate .

• The report of that committee is typically completed by mid to late June. The House and Senate enact the bill and send it to the Governor for his signature

• The bill becomes law upon the Governor’s signature.

Veto & Override •Governor may s ign the bill with objections to certain item s.• Everything outs ide of those vetoed items become law July 1.•The vetoed items must be overridden by 2/ 3 of the House and then the Senate.

FY14 GAA •Once vetoes and overrides are done the FY14 budget is complete.

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