FY12 Budget and Caseload Update Fiscal Committee December 5, 2011.

FY12 Budget and Caseload Update

Fiscal CommitteeDecember 5, 2011

FY12 Caseload Overview Late Billing: Part of EEC’s monthly projections is to report late billing.

The Fiscal Year 2012 late billing to date is approximately $2.4M. In comparison, July 2010 thru October 2010 (FY11) was $4.5M. Historical trends have been incorporated into the forecast. As actual numbers are incorporated, the forecasted deficit decreases. The total FY11 late billing accumulated total was $12.2M. If the late billing trend for FY12 continues, the realized savings will initially offset the deficit in contracts, which was caused by Contract/Flex spending over maximum obligation.

Income Eligible: The deficiency in Income Eligible account has decreased to $1M. Caseload continues to decrease with access closed driving the change in the projections. Voucher access remains closed; savings is offset by Contract/Flex Spending. Current projections anticipate Contract/Flex spending to be approximately $2.5M over maximum obligation.

DTA-Related Caseload: The forecasted surplus has decreased from $4.0M to $3.4M. The change in the projected surplus is driven by a 3% increase in caseload. It includes approximately $2M for the DTA policy change for parent work hours for 6-8 year olds. (The anticipated full year cost of this is $4M.) DTA anticipates the policy will be fully implemented by November but impact to spending may not occur until January 2012. FY11 caseload on average was 16,377 children; EEC expended $133.7M in FY11.

Supportive: After processing four months of actual expenditures, a surplus of $3.8M is projected. The increase in surplus is driven by a decrease in caseload by approximately 6%. Discussions with DCF indicate there will be an effort to fill the open slots which will result in the current surplus being reduced. Original projected budgeted caseload is based on a 3 year historical caseload trend for service months.2

FY12 Caseload Overview SummaryAs of November 2011

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FY2012 Caseload Spending FY2012 Budget Forecast

Variance Forecast vs.

Budget Income Eligible Contract/Flex 124,061,866$ 125,382,381$ (1,320,515)$ Voucher 99,809,111$ 99,457,641$ 351,470$ Grants 9,026,963$ 9,019,276$ 7,687$

232,897,940$ 233,859,298$ (961,358)$ DTA *Voucher 132,458,313$ 129,037,442$ 3,420,871$

Supportive Contract/Flex 76,848,576$ 72,543,072$ 4,305,504$ Voucher -$ 507,654$ (507,654)$ Grants 600,000$ 600,000$ -$

77,448,576$ 73,650,726$ 3,797,850$ Total 442,804,829$ 436,547,466$ 6,257,363$

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FY 2012 Income Eligible(3000-4060)

Forecast for December 2011

MonthCaseload Budget

Actual Caseload Variance

Spending P lan P rojection

Sept. Spending P lan/ Forecast

YTD Forecast Change

Nov , 2011 Actual/Forecast

Expenditures

YTD Variance (Original

Spending P lan)

Jun-11 35,124 35,388 N/A

Jul-11 34,172 33,826 (346) 19,605,263$ 19,605,263$ (0)$ 19,585,454$ 19,809$

Aug-11 34,650 33,475 (1,175) 21,710,402$ 20,960,402$ 750,000$ 20,735,441$ 994,771$

Sep-11 33,317 32,946 (371) 19,038,544$ 19,297,252$ 491,292$ 17,633,379$ 2,399,936$

Oct-11 33,145 30,676 (2,469) 18,109,837$ 18,218,215$ 382,914$ 16,850,579$ 3,659,194$

Nov-11 33,183 0 18,988,207$ 19,080,987$ 290,135$ 18,406,172$ 4,241,230$

Dec-11 33,249 0 19,032,445$ 19,080,987$ 241,592$ 18,386,318$ 4,887,356$

Jan-12 33,247 0 19,049,544$ 19,080,987$ 210,149$ 19,003,436$ 4,933,464$

Feb-12 33,574 0 18,409,311$ 18,218,215$ 401,245$ 18,726,348$ 4,616,427$

Mar-12 33,212 0 19,104,901$ 18,894,866$ 611,281$ 19,083,792$ 4,637,536$

Apr-12 32,777 0 18,027,323$ 17,866,974$ 771,629$ 18,321,242$ 4,343,617$

May-12 31,887 0 19,614,583$ 19,338,189$ 1,048,023$ 19,386,708$ 4,571,492$

Jun-12 30,410 0 16,803,604$ 18,141,442$ (289,814)$ 18,721,153$ 2,653,943$

GRANTS 9,019,276$ 9,019,276$ (289,814)$ 9,019,276$ 2,653,943$

232,897,940 232,897,940 232,897,940

(3,615,301) (3,905,114) (961,358)

- Yellow: FY11 Actual Expenditures

- Blue: FY12 Actual/ Forecast Expenditures - Green: FY12 Spending Plan/ Forecast Expenditures

* J uly and August budget includes $1.0M for ARRA expenditures to be paid by FY12 IE appropriation for both vouchers and contracts.

* Spending Plan Projection is maximum obligation, flex , teen and homeless contracts.

* Actual dollars represent expenditures billed and paid as of the date the forecast was prepared and may include late billing.

* Actual caseload count is the count of services rendered for the reporting month. Please note a child could receive multiple services.

* Caseload changes for a prior reporting month is driven by late billing. ARRA flex included in J uly and August.

* Budgeted caseload assumes access is closed (Vouchers) and terminations will be consistent with historical trend.

* Caseload changes for a prior reporting month are driven by late billing.

Surplus/Deficiency

FY12 Appropriation

Figures in these columns w ill never change.

Data source: Data extract 11/23/2011

This report tracks unbilled services for non-terminated children based on service month (multiple services may be counted per month per child). Terminated cases are reported separately and are not included in this report (effective FY12 reporting). The report has a two month lag. For example, unbilled billing report with the service month of August 2011 represents the number of children EEC has not been billed for since June 2011.

FY12 Voucher Late Billing

There are 6,122 billing records ($2.1M) associated with late billing for the billing months August for July services September for August services October for September services

There are 1,402 providers who have submitted late billing.

Of the 6,122 billing records, 4,887 are first time billed. The first time billed indicator captures when a child is

billed for the first time relative to their current placement. The billing records make up the majority of the $2.1M in expenses.

The balance (1235) of the billing records represents a net dollar impact of approximately $6K.

Of the 1235 billing records that are not related to first time billing, 932 of them are over one month late, 254 are two months late, and 49 are three months late.

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Total

Funding Source Billing Records Dollars

ARRA 68 $ 28,647

DSS 21 $ 5,921

DTA 2,500 $ 971,224

Income Eligible 3,533 $ 1,098,032

Grand Total 6,122 $ 2,103,824

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Data source: Data extract 11/23/2011

This report tracks unbilled services for non-terminated children based on service month (multiple services may be counted per month per child). Terminated cases are reported separately and are not included in this report (effective FY12 reporting). The report has a two month lag. For example unbilled billing report with the service month of August 2011 represents the number of children EEC has not been billed for since June 2011.

FY12 Contract Late Billing

There are 702 billing records ($212.7K) associated with late billing for billing months August for July services, September for August services, and October for September services.

There are 265 Contract providers who have submitted late billing.

Of the 702 billing records, 274 are first time billed. The first time billed indicator captures when a child is being billed for the first time relative to their current placement. These billing records make up the majority of the $161.6K in expenses. The balance of the billing records (428) represent a dollar impact of approximately $51K.

Of the 428 that are not related to first time billing, 368 of the billing records are one month late, 46 are two months, and 14 are three months late. Of the first time billed records (274), 239 were billed late by one month, 28 by two months and 7 by three months.

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TotalFunding Source Billing Records Dollars ARRA 23 $ 7,686 DSS 517 $ 120,599 DTA 128 $ 50,772 Income Eligible 34 $ 33,658 Grand Total 702 $ 212,716

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YTD Forecast Change

Nov, 2011 Actual/Forecast

Expenditures YTD Variance

Jun-11 16,399 16,539 N/A

Jul-11 16,318 15,760 (558) 10,956,346$ 10,956,346$ -$ 10,131,091$ 825,255$

Aug-11 16,378 15,778 (600) 11,026,254$ 9,901,398$ 1,124,857$ 10,968,712$ 882,798$

Sep-11 16,659 16,296 (363) 11,193,881$ 10,117,931$ 2,200,807$ 9,941,661$ 2,135,019$

Oct-11 16,387 15,859 (528) 11,001,251$ 9,974,208$ 3,227,850$ 9,986,896$ 3,149,375$

Nov-11 16,537 11,114,522$ 10,038,572$ 4,303,800$ 10,958,790$ 3,305,108$

Dec-11 15,948 10,730,752$ 9,654,802$ 5,379,750$ 10,561,494$ 3,474,366$

Jan-12 16,211 10,902,057$ 9,826,107$ 6,455,701$ 11,035,712$ 3,340,712$

Feb-12 16,602 11,141,372$ 10,114,329$ 7,482,744$ 10,879,778$ 3,602,307$

Mar-12 16,736 11,244,010$ 10,168,060$ 8,558,694$ 11,361,281$ 3,485,036$

Apr-12 16,710 11,211,760$ 10,184,717$ 9,585,737$ 10,933,823$ 3,762,973$

May-12 16,511 11,113,157$ 9,988,301$ 10,710,594$ 11,650,293$ 3,225,837$

Jun-12 16,113 10,822,947$ 9,795,904$ 11,737,636$ 10,627,913$ 3,420,871$

TOTAL 132,458,314$ 120,720,677$ 129,037,442$

132,458,313 132,458,313

11,737,636 3,420,871


- Blue: FY12 Actual/ Forecast Expenditures - Green: FY12 Spending Plan/Forecast Expenditures

* The forecasted surplus of $4.2M does include DTA policy change for parent work hours for 6-8 year olds. (Anticipated cost $4M.)

* FY11 caseload on average was 16,377. J uly and August reporting reflects a signifcant decrease which is contributing to the forecasted surplus.

* In FY11 caseload resulted in a deficit. The surplus reported does not incorporate potential increases in caseload.

* Budgeted caseload is based on a 2 year historical trend.




FY12 Appropriation

Surplus/Deficiency


FY 2012 DTA Related(3000-4050)

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YTD Forecast Change

Nov , 2011 Actual/Forecast

Expenditures YTD Variance

Jun-11 5,983 5,984 N/A

Jul-11 5,898 5,999 101 6,348,668$ 6,348,668$ -$ 6,194,480$ 154,188$

Aug-11 5,818 5,993 175 6,883,969$ 6,704,454$ 179,515$ 6,501,733$ 536,424$

Sep-11 5,838 5,972 134 6,596,261$ 6,381,222$ 394,554$ 6,076,015$ 1,056,671$

Oct-11 5,564 6,125,768$ 5,894,777$ 625,545$ 5,911,131$ 1,271,307$

Nov-11 5,564 6,415,166$ 6,174,643$ 866,068$ 6,123,609$ 1,562,864$

Dec-11 5,609 6,445,428$ 6,202,328$ 1,109,169$ 6,087,045$ 1,921,248$

Jan-12 5,573 6,416,044$ 6,174,054$ 1,351,158$ 6,113,004$ 2,224,288$

Feb-12 5,573 6,124,406$ 5,893,415$ 1,582,149$ 5,815,721$ 2,532,974$

Mar-12 5,677 6,483,937$ 6,241,947$ 1,824,139$ 6,124,296$ 2,892,615$

Apr-12 5,677 6,189,213$ 5,958,223$ 2,055,129$ 5,820,505$ 3,261,323$

May-12 5,676 6,778,383$ 6,525,394$ 2,308,118$ 6,295,932$ 3,743,774$

Jun-12 5,438 6,039,538$ 6,308,548$ 2,039,109$ 5,987,257$ 3,796,055$

GRANTS 600,000$ 600,000$ 2,039,109$ 600,000$ 3,796,055$

TOTAL 77,446,781$ 75,407,672$ 73,650,726$

77,448,576 77,448,576

2,040,904 3,797,850


- Blue: FY12 Actual/ Forecast Expenditures - Green FY12 Spending Plan/Forecast Expenditures

* Budgeted caseload is based on a 3 year historical trend for service months with caseload decreases.

* Vouchers are no longer available for Supportive Care and are in the process of being phased out.

* Dollar and caseload for vouchers are included in the totals reported.




FY12 Appropriation

Surplus/Deficiency


FY 2012 Supportive (3000-3050)

FY2012 DTA Caseload Actual/Forecast & Budgeted Expenditures

11

Blue: Actual/Forecast Expenditures

Gray : Appropriation Budget (Spending Plan Projection)

Purple: September Board Report (July Actuals/Aug-Jun Forecast)

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FY2012 Income Eligible Total Caseload Actual/Forecast & Budgeted Expenditures

Total Appropriation of $232.9M includes $9,019,276 for GrantsOctober 2011 Voucher Expenditures paid is $7,398,983.20.




FY2012 Supportive Caseload Actual/Forecast & Budgeted Expenditures

13Total Appropriation is $ 77.447 includes $600K for Grants not reported in chart.




FY12 Income Eligible Contract Slots Overview

As of November 29, 2011 there are 14,459 awarded slots. Of the total awarded slots there is a net 1,429.50 open contracted slots. Two hundred and eight slots were filled in November.

The total allowable flex is 856 slots; 623.5 slots are filled. The number of flex slots filled decreased by 16.5. Currently there are 36 providers whose flex slots are over 5% by 473 slots (awarded 77, used 550). Providers under 5% have 705.5 flex slots not filled (awarded 724, used 19).

EEC currently has 175 contracted vendors; 151 (86%) of them have open contracted slots. There are 474 contracts, 152 (32%) of the contracts have open contracted slots.

Note that in the chart below the standard deviation of 59.2282 for the Head Start Partner Before & After Program is skewed because one program has 287 awarded slots, but 143 of them are open.

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Standard Deviation by Program TypeNov. 29, 2011 Nov. 01, 2011

CENTER BASED INFANT 1.2067 1.3006CENTER BASED INFANT/TODDLER 3.5178 4.2060

CENTER BASED PRE-SCHOOL 7.1977 9.4735

CENTER BASED SCHOOL-AGE 4.9583 5.9201

CENTER BASED TODDLER 2.6413 3.5202CENTER BASED TODDLER/PRE-SCHOOL

FAMILY CHILD CARE < 2 10.7463 11.0580

FAMILY CHILD CARE > 2 10.7835 2.5171

HEAD START PARTNER B&A 37.8882 *59.2282

Median by Program TypeNov. 29, 2011 Nov. 01, 2011

CENTER BASED INFANT 1.0 1.0CENTER BASED INFANT/TODDLER 0.0 1.0CENTER BASED PRE-SCHOOL 3.0 4.0CENTER BASED SCHOOL-AGE 1.0 4.0CENTER BASED TODDLER 0.5 1.75CENTER BASED TODDLER/PRE-SCHOOL 0.5

.5

FAMILY CHILD CARE < 2 6.8 11.0FAMILY CHILD CARE > 2 -3.0 4.0HEAD START PARTNER B&A 0.0 3.0

FY2012 Contract Slots - Regular and Flex

15

Total Awarded Slots is 14459 and Allowable Flex Slots is 856

36 Providers representing 48 contracts are Over 5% Flex (473)

**No. of children filling slots may be greater than slots awarded.

Addendum:Caseload Waitlist Since 9/2010

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Waiting List Category 9/29/10 Total10/28/10

Total11/30/10

Total12/28/10

Total1/28/11

Total2/28/11

Total3/31/11

Total4/29/11

Total5/31/11

Total6/30/11

Total7/31/11

Total8/31/11 Total*

9/29/11 Total*

10/31/11 Total*

11/30/11 Total*

Child of Foster Care 84 79 88 69 62 60 68 73 96 116 117 116 125 131 137

Child of Homeless family 141 149 145 126 131 123 125 123 126 151 157 133 139 140 144

Child of Military Personnel 30 25 23 28 31 30 33 34 36 42 42 45 48 51 50

Child of Teen Parent 98 121 108 109 82 88 96 103 108 127 138 130 152 160 174

Child w ith Special Needs 750 814 684 625 663 670 753 799 800 885 902 823 849 893 936

Continuity of Care: Aging Out 116 206 123 110 103 86 99 111 113 129 122 171 278 283 285

Continuity of Care: Approved Break in Service 195 203 49 54 67 74 94 88 100 160 179 226 275 286 294

Continuity of Care: Child Left Care w ithin 3 Months 145 189 124 82 74 59 55 53 44 42 40 49 127 127 126

Continuity of Care: Geographic Relocation 26 36 40 35 35 40 50 59 52 71 67 60 69 65 67

Continuity of Care: Homeless Contract 3 4 3 8 5 4 4 4 4 5 7 5 5 5 5

Continuity of Care: NTCC 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 - - - -

Continuity of Care: Supportive Referral 96 103 79 64 84 65 72 68 77 84 88 83 93 98 102

Continuity of Care: Teen Parent Contract 25 23 21 15 12 13 13 13 14 14 15 22 20 20 20

General Priority 15,324 16,547 15,081 13,618 14,292 15,191 16,913 18,300 18,847 21,663 22,074 20,533 21,281 21,742 22,711

No Priority - Other Family Member 6

Grandparent/Guardian Families 241 278 251 236 247 245 249 260 278 330 326 298 317 321 327

Parent w ith Special Needs 343 397 344 321 331 361 402 445 449 503 512 461 473 479 496

Sibling: Contract 216 186 180 149 144 145 154 173 173 224 226 229 240 244 250

Sibling: CPC 1 -

Sibling: Voucher 346 314 300 252 253 272 248 295 313 404 430 447 514 549 575

Summer only care 551 499 445 393 391 395 432 489 524 959 847 590 592 596 591

Grand Total 18,733 20,175 18,089 16,294 17,007 17,921 19,861 21,491 22,155 25,911 26,291 24,421 25,597 26,059 27,296

*Waitlist Data as of August 2011 is reported from KinderWait.

FY12 Budget and Caseload Update Fiscal Committee December 5, 2011.

Documents

billing records

billing months

time billing

late billing trend

unbilled billing report

fy11 caseload

related caseload

year historical caseload