Evolving the u.s. criminal justice system a dynamic transformative scenario planning approach

1Arturo J. Bencosme, PhD 1

Evo l v ing the U.S. Cr imina l Jus t i ce Sys tem- A Dynamic Transformative Scenario Planning Approach -

A Preliminary, Exploratory Work for a Full Scale Study by

Arturo J. Bencosme, PhDAugust, 2014

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Arturo J. Bencosme, PhD 2

Introduction

I - About Systems Thinking

II - Systems Mapping of the U.S. Criminal Justice System

IV - Searching for Transformative Scenarios for the U.S. Criminal Justice System

III - Simulating the Dynamics of the U.S. Criminal justice System

V - Utilizing the Combined Systems Thinking / Transformative Scenario Approach to plan for evolving Criminal Justice in the U.S.

CONTENTS

E v o l v i n g t h e U. S . C r i m i n a l J u s t i c e S y s t e m

- A Dynamic Transformative Scenario Planning Approach -





In the U.S., criminality, incarceration and social morale is a story tale about the interactions of two competing paradigms:

Crime & Punishment vs. Human Potential

While the former feeds on criminality and exerts its influence quickly through stiffer laws and stronger law enforcement,

the latter aims at bringing out over time the best in peopleespecially through mindfulness training and college level education,

counseling & therapy when needed plus in-prison distributive leadership development.

A combined systems thinking & transformative scenario planning approach is proposed herein. It promises to be of use in policy making and strategy formulation

to evolve the U.S. criminal justice system into one that will better serve society.

INTRODUCTION


INTRODUCTION(Cont.)

Systems thinking lays the ground for developing the scenarios by visualizing the patterns of interactions among the Criminal Justice System’s components. Based on these patterns, leverage points for designing effective policies can be identified.

Transformative scenario planning uses the analytical consistency brought about by systems thinking to introduce fundamental, long term policies aimed at improving the Criminal Justice System as a whole, thus enhancing its contribution to the U.S. society’s wellbeing.


Systems Thinking is the learning discipline of seeing reality as collections of people, other living beings and objects which interact with each other to function as a

whole. Its power is in complexity handling within a dynamic perspective.

This power provides an analytical underlayment for the transformative scenario work.

Through the systemic perspective, short term and long term effects of policies and strategies,

as well as their desired and unintended consequences can be visualized.

The result is a solid foundation for understanding the underpinnings in creating a different future for the U.S. Criminal Justice System.

I - About Systems Thinking


Systems Thinking utilizes feedback loop causal diagrams, a visual language for depicting the structure that causes behavior:

I - About Systems Thinking (Cont.)


Two Types of Feedback Loops

The reinforcing feedback loops are also called “Vicious Circles” and “Virtuous Circles”,

depending on the starting action’s direction. They are signaled by a “Snow Ball”

+ EmployeePerformance

Supervisor’sSupportiveBehavior

+


The Balancing Loops are also called “Correcting” or “Negative” feedback loops.

They attempt to bring in an equilibrium and are signaled by a “Balance Scale”.

Gap

Cash Replenishing

Cash on Hand

DesiredCash on Hand

+

+

+

-


… Are causal diagrams that might include multiple feedback loops where the action started at a variable comes back to same variable, possibly through several other variables.

… Constitute a useful way to represent dynamic interrelationships as one understands them that is, one’s mental model.

… Offer a drawing table for developing policies and strategies to guide effective actions based on a complex feedback perspective rather than on a linear, simplistic one.

Feedback Loop Causal Diagrams …




The tools of systems thinking are appropriate for exploring the dynamic complexity

in the interplay of the two competing paradigms relative to the U.S. Criminal Justice System

through a feedback loop causal diagram that encompasses key variables

and the patterns of their interactions over time.

Systems Thinking



OFFENDERSAT LARGE

OFFENDERSINCARCERATED

Appare

nt

Sh

ort

term

Su

ccess

+

+

-

ARRESTS / INCARCERATION

Mid

-ter

mFa

ilure

RECIDIVISM+

+

But not too long thereafter,Recidivism brings offenders back into action thus replenishing the quantity of offenders at large.

This is a reinforcing feedback loop that impels the growth of the offenders at large as well as those incarcerated.

Massive Incarceration is a fix that backfires !

On an initial round, Crime & Punishment-oriented actions go after offenders at large

and arrest & incarcerate them. This results in a balancing feedback loop

aimed at keeping offenders at bay: an apparent short term success.


-

HUMAN POTENTIALPARADIGM STRENGTH:

LEVEL OF PERCEIVED NEEDFOR GENERATIVE,

HUMAN POTENTIAL-DRIVENLONG TERM POLICIES

FUNDING TO GENERATIVE,HUMAN POTENTIAL-DRIVEN

LONG TERM POLICIES

Long-te

rm

Succe

ss

+

+

II - Systems Mapping of the U.S. Criminal Justice System (Cont.)

A comprehensive long term fundamental strategy would involve:

1) human potential-oriented strategies in prisons such as motivational interviewing, transformational script-oriented therapies, mindfulness training, and so forth.

2) expanded investments in education to college level and mindfulness training across society.

The perceived need for these policies, however, takes time to take place. The long term, fundamental solution brings a delayed, balancing feedback loop into play.

OFFENDERSAT LARGE


Appare

nt

Sh

ort

term

Su

ccess

+

+

-


Mid

-ter

mFa

ilure

RECIDIVISM+

+


-

BARRIERS POSED

BY FEAR OF BEING UNSAFE

-

SOCIALMORALE

Long

-ter

m

Colla

pse

-

-Low social morale typically escalates criminality.

At a deeper level, massive incarceration undermines social morale.

Social morale are the feelings of enthusiasm and loyalty that people within society have and their psychological well-being based on such factors as a sense of purpose and confidence in the future (Esprit de Corps).

A diminished social morale will eventually signify a social collapse. Together with its negative impacts, a low social morale impels two reinforcing feedback loops that escalates criminality.

-


-





LONG TERM POLICIES

Long-te

rm

Succe

ss

+

+Low social morale-generated fears dampens the need for long term solutions thus weakening the human potential paradigm in society.

OFFENDERSAT LARGE


Appare

nt

Sh

ort

term

Su

ccess

+

+

-


Mid

-ter

mFa

ilure

RECIDIVISM+

+


PRESSURE BY CONSTITUENCIES

FOR CRIME PUNISHMENT

+

CRIME &PUNISHMENT

PARADIGMSTRENGTH

+Side

Effect

This reinforcing feedback loop perpetuates

the crime & punishment paradigm

-

FUNDING TO LAW

ENFORCEMENT

+


-

BARRIERS POSED

BY FEAR OF BEING UNSAFE

-

SOCIALMORALE

Long

-ter

m

Colla

pse

-

-Low social morale typically escalates criminality. --





LONG TERM POLICIES

Long-te

rm

Succe

ss

+

+

As an additional side effect, massive incarceration

strengthens the “crime & punishment” paradigm.

Constituencies then press on for crime punishment…

…resulting in increased funding

to law enforcement which further undermines

the perceived need for long term solutions.

OFFENDERSAT LARGE


Appare

nt

Sh

ort

term

Su

ccess

+

+

-


Mid

-ter

mFa

ilure

RECIDIVISM+

+


III - Systems Mapping of the U.S. Criminal Justice System (Cont.)

It can be seen in the Criminal Justice systems map, that several superimposed “Shifting the Burden” system archetypes are at play:

The burden is shifted from long term, fundamental approaches to short term , symptomatic “solutions”.

Bringing into the open the dynamics involved in the two paradigm interactions

helps realize the need for fundamental, long term policies to move toward society’s well being

rather than remaining trapped in a permanent, ever increasing problem,that is nurtured by the short term “solutions” (such as massive incarceration)

that are actually “fixes that backfire”.



Crime & Punishment-driven actions have positive effects in the short term (i.e., reduces the offenders at large)

but causes long term unintended and undesirable consequences: criminality and incarceration financial and moral burdens increase,

and the possibility of effecting long term, permanent solutions diminishes.

Human Potential–oriented actions address behavioral change at its root: the person,But takes longer to be effective.

This is the case of education to the college level (a prevention effort), counseling & therapy (both a prevention and remedial effort), and mindfulness training (also prevention and remedial effort).



Research has confirmed the positive impacts of human potential-oriented policies:

Education is inversely correlated with criminality & incarceration; mindfulness in prisons improves inmate behavior and reduces criminal orientation;

and so forth …

But as depicted in the systems map of the Criminal Justice System, the longer term nature of human potential efforts

require enduring efforts over time to show its positive results.

Human potential paradigm adherents face challenges in:

1) Overcoming the fear of being unsafe, and the belief that punishment is the only just thing to do, both present in the adherents to the crime & punishment paradigm.

2) Building a bridge between short term measures and long term, fundamental solutions.


The next step consists of deepening the understandingof the behavior of the Criminal Justice Systemvia constructing and experimenting with a System Dynamics simulation model.

Such a systemic understanding can help in developing further a shared perspective on Criminal Justice that in turn can serve as quantitative foundation

for transformative scenarios aimed at enhancing the U.S. Society.

III - Simulating the Dynamics of the U.S. Criminal Justice System

System Dynamics

Arturo J. Bencosme, PhD18

System dynamics modelsare built based followingthe principles of stock & flow system representation. A flow is the rate of accumulation of the stock

Experimenting with a system dynamics prototype model allows exploring the validity of the assumptions

underlying the systems map for the U.S. Criminal Justice that was developed initially

and explore further each of the four scenarios selected.

III - Simulating the Dynamics of the U.S. Criminal Justice System (Cont.)


The following population groups are included: mindful, non-mindful, college, non-college, Incarcerated and ex-convicted.

A significant amount of detail is added to the system map to translate it into a simulation model based on the principles of stock & flow system representation.


The presence of the two

paradigms is apparent.

~ A Prototype Model ~


Dashboards can be readily designed & built for a variety of purposesthus allowing for interactive policy variable inputs and depicting the corresponding results.



Transformative scenario planning goes beyond the traditional scenario planning which asks:What should we do if… ?” to advance to a generative perspective by asking: What should we change so that… ?”

In other words, transformative scenario planning considers the factors that we cannot influence and the uncertainty involved (in order to adapt to them)plus those factors which we are capable of influencing in order to strive for a different future.

IV - Searching for Transformative Scenariosfor the U.S. Criminal Justice System

FUTURE SCENARIO “SQ”

FUTURE SCENARIO

”BT”

FUTURE SCENARIO

“SG”

FUTURE SCENARIO

“PB”

KNOWNS & UNKNOWNS ABOUT THE FUTURE

PLUS AVAILABLE POLICIES & STRATEGIES


Two major axis of uncertainty would be useful to be explored with respect to the conflict between the two paradigms:

• The degree to which society and government can reach a consensus about how strong should the U.S. modify the Criminal Justice System.

• The direction in which the Criminal Justice System should evolve.

IV - Searching for Transformative Scenarios for the U.S. Criminal Justice System (Cont.)

DEGREE OF POLITICAL CONSENSUSIN DRIVING FOR CJS CHANGE

OVERALL SOCIAL ORIENTATION

Low Consensus

High Consensus

Crime & Punishment:Fear of Being Unsafe

Human Potential:Expansion & Mindfulness


1) “Status Quo” plays the baseline role as it extrapolates the current situation into the future.

2) “Spontaneous Generation” is based on the assumption that while there might be acceptance of the human potential paradigm, society lacks sufficient momentum to move forward fast enough.

3) “Bear Traps” scenario presents the likely impacts of allowing a strengthening of the Crime & Punishment paradigm via tougher laws.

4) “Phoenix Bird” scenario depicts the effects of leveraging the human potential in individuals both free and incarcerated.

The intersection of the two axis of uncertainty results in four scenarios for evolving the U.S. Criminal Justice System:


DEGREE OF POLITICAL CONSENSUSIN DRIVING FOR CJS CHANGE

OVERALL SOCIAL ORIENTATION

PHOENIXBIRD

BEARTRAPS

STATUS QUO

SPONTANEOUSGENERATION

Low Consensus

High Consensus

Crime & Punishment:Fear of Being Unsafe

Human Potential:Expansion & Mindfulness


Current rising trend in criminality continues.

Current reentry rate continues.

Current recidivism rate continues.

The current state of the Criminal Justice System prevails into the future as a result of the currently wide-spread adoption of the Crime & Punishment paradigm in the U.S. society.

As a result, there is an increasing trend in criminality, incarcerated population, and recidivism, as well as a general sense of hopelessness relative to improving this situation.

Low social morale reinforces the permanence of this situation. Negative effects on the economy are also present as a result of having a reduced labor.

In summary,


“STATUS QUO”CRIME & PUNISHMENT PARADIGM,

LOW POLITICAL CONSENSUS TO DRIVE CHANGE IN THE CJS


“STATUS QUO”CRIME & PUNISHMENT PARADIGM,

LOW POLITICAL CONSENSUS TO DRIVE CHANGE IN THE CJS

SCOPE OF MINDFULNESS EFFORTS IN SOCIETY AND IN PRISONS

Current trend in becoming mindful, tiny for the population at large and almost none in prisons.

TRANSFORMATIVE EFFORTS FOR INMATES THROUGH COUNSELING & THERAPY

Current level of investment in traditional behavioral change efforts (MI, Therapy) in prisons.

DISTRIBUTED LEADERSHIP DEVELOPMENT FOR INMATES

Current extent of distributed leadership development (minimal).

INVESTMENT IN EDUCATION K-12 TO COLLEGE LEVEL

Current investment in education K-12 + college equivalent to 5.5% of GDP is maintained.

LAW FLEXIBILIZATION / RIGIDIZATION Law strength is kept as is currently.

POLICIES TO MATERIALIZE THIS SCENARIO:



The rising trend in criminality becomes less accelerated as a result of more flexible laws.

The reentry rate will improve slightly as a result from both more flexible laws, and counseling & therapy for inmates.

The recidivism rate will be somewhat reduced as a result from both more flexible laws, and counseling & therapy aimed at becoming a rehabilitated citizen.

Terrain is gained by human potential advocates: at least, now society is not against counseling & therapy in prisons or against mindfulness training in prisons and elsewhere, and the education to college level remains at the current level.

Nevertheless, the efforts fail shy of attaining the necessary momentum: spontaneous generation of evolution in the Criminal Justice System does not occur to a significant degree. The overall result is similar to that of the “Status Quo” scenario.

“SPONTANEOUS GENERATION”SOME MOVEMENT TOWARD HUMAN

POTENTIAL, LOW POLITICAL CONSENSUS TO DRIVE CHANGE IN THE CJS

In summary,




A exploratory investment is made in mindfulness training for the general population, and in prisons.


A modest investment is made to scale-up behavioral change efforts in prisons (MI, Therapy).


A slight increase in distributed leadership development.


A modest increase in the investment is made in education K-12 + college.

LAW FLEXIBILIZATION / RIGIDIZATIONMore flexible laws favoring less incarceration and more reentry are enacted.

“SPONTANEOUS GENERATION”SOME MOVEMENT TOWARD HUMAN

POTENTIAL, LOW POLITICAL CONSENSUS TO DRIVE CHANGE IN THE CJS




Criminality will increase as a result of more actions being considered as crimes.

The reentry rate will diminish as a result of 1) having stiffer laws,2) having only minimal counseling & therapy.

Recidivism rises as a result of 1) having stiffer laws, and 2) having only minimal counseling & therapy.

Crime & Punishment loyalists have their say, and instead of investing in prevention and rehabilitation, efforts are directed at toughing the legal system and funding the increased law enforcement expenditures.

Incarcerated population raises exponentially and there is a false perception of improved overall safety. But the social morale decline and its system-wide effects attest to otherwise.

“BEAR TRAPS”CRIME & PUNISHMENT PARADIGM,

HIGH POLITICAL CONSENSUS TO DRIVE CHANGE IN THE CJS

In summary,




Same as the status quo scenario: Current trend in becoming mindful, almost none in prisons


Substantially diminished trend in behavioral change efforts in prisons (MI, Therapy, etc).


Zero distributed leadership development .


Reduced education investmentand heavier reliance on college loans.

LAW FLEXIBILIZATION / RIGIDIZATIONMore rigid laws encouraging more incarceration and less reentry are enacted.

“BEAR TRAPS”CRIME & PUNISHMENT PARADIGM,





Criminality eventually takes on a downward trend as human potential-based policies put in place lead to better behavior and a higher consciousness.

The reentry rate will improve as a result of mindfulness training and expanded in-prison counseling & therapy aimed at successful reentry.

Recidivism becomes minimal as a result of mindfulness training and expanded counseling & therapy aimed at successful reentry.

Society progressively comes to give its own people –including the incarcerated- a substantial opportunity to unravel their potential as human beings.

Extensive mindfulness training together with investments to college level education gradually transform people into significantly more reflective individuals.

Crime and recidivism rates are increasingly down, while reentry rates increase. The % free population keeps on growing. Social morale shows a recovery trend. The economy also shows improvements.

“PHOENIX BIRD”FULL HUMAN POTENTIAL PARADIGM,


In summary,




Substantial investment is made in mindfulness training for the general population and in-prison.


Scaled-up behavioral change efforts in prisons (MI, Therapy, aimed to generate redemption scripts by the offenders, etc.)

DISTRIBUTEDLEADERSHIP DEVELOPMENT FOR INMATES

Intensive & extensive distributed leadership development takes place in prisons to accelerate behavioral change.


Escalated education investment progressively increases the percent of population who are college graduates.

LAW FLEXIBILIZATION / RIGIDIZATIONMore flexible laws are enacted (less incarceration, more reentry) with emphasis on prevention & rehabilitation.

“PHOENIX BIRD”FULL HUMAN POTENTIAL PARADIGM,





Modest policies to alter current trends, such as “neutrally” observing the emergence of the human potential paradigm, are far from enough to improve on the criminality situation.

Which future scenario is the most desirablefor bringing to life the story about the conflict between

the Crime & Punishment and the Human Potential paradigms ?

The criminality situation in the U.S. society deteriorates further over time if current criminal justice policies are kept in place.

The Phoenix Bird scenario visualizes the positive long term effects of human potential-oriented policies & strategies (such as education, wide spread mindfulness training and distributed leadership-expanded in-prison counseling & therapy). It illustrates policy, making that can actually evolve the U.S. Criminal Justice System to enhance U.S. society’s common good.

Contrary to the belief of adherents to the crime & punishment paradigm, the criminality situation worsens with tougher laws and other policies congruent with that paradigm.

V - Utilizing the Combined Systems Thinking / Transformative Scenario Approachto Plan for Evolving Criminal Justice in the U.S.



(Cont.)

TIME TO CHOOSEBASED UPON:

KNOWNS & UNKNOWNS ABOUT THE FUTURE PLUS

AVAILABLE POLICIES & STRATEGIES

Such a shift involves:

Moving away from the current, unsustainable path described in the “Status Quo” scenario to generating a human potential-powered path – the Phoenix Bird scenario;

avoiding the insufficient and also unsustainable path in the “Spontaneous Generation” scenario;

and definitely avoiding the complete collapse that would bring about the “Bear Traps” scenario.

It can be argued that it is still possible to shift into the human potential paradigm and thus alter the course of the U.S. Criminal Justice System:


Based on the leverage points indentified through the systems map & simulation, and the scenario analysis based on such a systemic perspective, the following strategies exemplify how the U.S. Criminal Justice System can be evolved to enhance social wellbeing:

Steadfastly promote the human potential paradigm.

Diminish the conceptual connection between incarceration and funding to law enforcement.

Pursue human potential-based, long-term strategies such as education, transformational script-centered offender counseling & therapy, distributed leadership, and mindfulness within & without prisons; all the while managing incarceration toward a declining trend.


(Cont.)



(Cont.)

How will the story about the competition betweenCrime & Punishment vs. Human

Potential end ?

The answer is in Our Hands…


Evolving the u.s. criminal justice system a dynamic transformative scenario planning approach

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