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Ipsos Croatia Ipsos 2012 1 EU CBS IN ADRIA REGION Paris, Dec 2015
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EU CBS IN ADRIA REGIONec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/...EU CBS IN ADRIA REGION 1. Adria region 2. CBS in Adria region 3. MCD 4. Correlations 3 1. ADRIA REGION Name:

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Page 1: EU CBS IN ADRIA REGIONec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/...EU CBS IN ADRIA REGION 1. Adria region 2. CBS in Adria region 3. MCD 4. Correlations 3 1. ADRIA REGION Name:

Ipsos Croatia

Ipsos 2012 1

EU CBS IN ADRIA REGION

Paris, Dec 2015

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EU CBS IN ADRIA REGION

1. Adria region

2. CBS in Adria region

3. MCD

4. Correlations

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1. ADRIA REGION

Name:

• Adria or Adriatic region (business people)

• West Balkan (politicians)

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1. ADRIA REGION

8 Countries / 25M citizens

7 nations & 7 official languages

6 currencies

4 countries on the refugees route

3 big religions

2 letters

1 Nikola TESLA

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1. ADRIA REGION

Negative:

• WW1 started in Sarajevo (Bosnia - 1914)

• Last war in Europe took place there

• Balkan refugee routes

• Low GDP growth

• High unemployment rate

Positive:

• Tennis, basketball, football, water ball, handball, …

• Adriatic sea,…..

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1. ADRIA REGION

GDP

per capita PPP 2012 2013 2014 % of EU

EU 28 34.950 35.300 36.200 100%

Albania 9.667 9.926 10.429 29%

Bosna 9.370 9.550 9.923 27%

Croatia 21.114 21.351 21.252 59%

Kosovo* 8.388 8.613 8.804 24%

Macedonia 11.874 12.468 13.142 36%

Montenegro 13.589 14.136 14.323 40%

Serbia 12.806 13.020 12.660 35%

Slovenia 28.450 28.859 29.917 83%

World Bank, Eurostat

GDP per capita, PPP (current international $),

*Est 2012, 2013

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1. ADRIA REGION

GDP growth (annual %)

2012 2013 2014

EU 28 -0,5 0,2 1,4

Slovenia -2,6 -1,0 2,6

Croatia -2,2 -0,9 -0,4

Kosovo -3,0 8,7 2,8

Macedonia -0,5 2,7 3,8

Montenegro -2,5 3,3 1,5

Serbia -1,0 2,6 -1,8

Albania 1,6 1,4 1,9

Bosnia & Herzegovina -1,2 2,5 1,2

World Bank - annual percentage growth rate of GDP at market prices based on constant

local currency. Aggregates are based on constant 2005 U.S. dollars.

Eurostat

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2. EU CBS IN ADRIA REGION

Slovenia: since 1995 CSO

Croatia: IPSOS

• Consumer since 1999 (started by Croatian Central Bank)

• Business since May 2008

Macedonia: since May 2008 IPSOS

Montenegro: since May 2012 IPSOS & CBM / ISSP

(possible changes from 2016)

Serbia: since may 2012 CSO

Albania: coming soon (may 2016) Open, evaluation process in place

Bosna & Herzegovina and Kosovo: not yet

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2. PUBLISHING & USAGE OF RESULTS

Serbia and Montenegro still do not publish results (to short period)

Slovenia:

• results are regularly and professionally published by CSO

• Paper: „Finanace” (regularly); „Delo” (occasionally)

• TV stations (occasionally): RTV Slo, POP TV, Planet TV

• WEB sites (regularly): siol.net, sta.si, rtvslo.si, 24ur.com

Main users:

• Central Bank of Slovenia („Bilten”)

• UMAR - Office for macroeconomic analysis („Economic mirror”)

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1. PUBLISHING & USAGE OF RESULTS

Croatia (since 2008):

• results are regularly and professionally published by Croatian

National Bank (partner in BCS in Croatia)

• very occasionally by daily paper

Main users (still very passive, test mode):

• Croatian National Bank

• Institute of Economics, Zagreb

Macedonia (since 2008):

• results are regularly and professionally published by National

Bank of the Republic of Macedonia

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2. AVAILABILITY OF BCS IN ADRIA

Industry Reference series* BCS survey data **

Volume of Ind.

Production - monthly INDU

1 Slovenia Yes Yes

2 Croatia Yes Yes

3 Macedonia Yes Yes

4 Montenegro Yes Yes

5 Serbia Yes No

6 Albania No No

7 Bosnia & Herzegovina Yes No

8 Kosovo No No

* Eurostat

** European Commission

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2. AVAILABILITY OF BCS IN ADRIA

Retail trade Reference series* BCS survey data **

Turnover and volume of sales in

retail trade - monthly data RETA

1 Slovenia Yes Yes

2 Croatia Yes Yes (2008)

3 Macedonia No Yes (2008)

4 Montenegro Yes Yes (2012)

5 Serbia Yes No

6 Albania No No

7 Bosnia & Herzegovina Yes No

8 Kosovo No No

* Eurostat

** European Commission

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2. AVAILABILITY OF BCS IN ADRIA

Services Reference series* Reference series* BCS survey data **

Turnover in services

- monthly data

Turnover in services

- quarterly data SERV

1 Slovenia Yes Yes Yes

2 Croatia No Yes Yes (2008)

3 Macedonia No Yes Yes (2008)

4 Montenegro No Yes Yes (2012)

5 Serbia No Yes No

6 Albania No No No

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Bosnia &

Herzegovina No Yes No

8 Kosovo No No No

* Eurostat Database

** EU Commission

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2. AVAILABILITY OF BCS IN ADRIA

Building Reference series* Reference series* BCS survey data **

Production in

construction -

monthly data

Production in

construction -

quarterly data BUIL

1 Slovenia Yes Yes Yes

2 Croatia No Yes Yes (2008)

3 Macedonia Yes Yes Yes (2008)

4 Montenegro No Yes Yes (2012)

5 Serbia No Yes No

6 Albania No No No

7 Bosnia & Herzegovina No Yes No

8 Kosovo No No No

* Eurostat

** European Commission

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3. MCD – REF. MONTHLY SERIES

Country INDU RETAIL

European Union (28) 4 4

Croatia 3 3

Slovenia 4 4

Montenegro 6 6

Macedonia 5 5

Serbia 3 3

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3. MCD – BCS, MONTHLY

EU 28 Slovenia Croatia Macedonia Montenegro

INDU 1 2 3 3 3

SERV 2 2 2 4 6

CONS 2 4 4 4 5

RETA 2 4 4 4 5

BUIL 2 2 2 4 6

ESI 1 2 2 3 NA

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4. CORRELATION BCS – REF. SERIES

INDU EU 28 Slovenia Croatia Macedonia Montenegro

coincident 0,933 0,842 0,702 0,732 0,067

lead 1 0,927 0,885 0,691 0,721 -0,030

lead 2 0,897 0,893 0,711 0,651 -0,101

Ref., monthly index - 2008 May / 2015 Aug, y to y-1 difference, seasonally adjusted

INDU, monthly, seasonally adjusted

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4. CORRELATION BCS – REF. SERIES

Retail EU 28 Slovenia Croatia Macedonia Montenegro

coincident 0,760 0,744 0,792 NA 0,071

lead 1 0,788 0,767 0,770 NA 0,049

lead 2 0,764 0,801 0,776 NA -0,071

Ref., monthly index - 2008 May / 2015 Aug, y to y-1 difference, seasonally adjusted

INDU, monthly, seasonally adjusted

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4. CORRELATION BCS – REF. SERIES

Source of Ref series :Eurostat

Volume index of production in construction, - quarterly data; y – y-1

Seasonally adjusted and adjusted data by working days

BSC: quarterly average

BUIL EU 28 Slovenia Croatia Macedonia Montenegro

coincident 0,68 0,89 0,91 0,20 0,76

lead 1 0,83 0,86 0,86 0,17 0,80

lead 2 0,82 0,72 0,70 0,27 0,82

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4. CORRELATION BCS – REF. SERIES

Serv EU 28 Slovenia Croatia

coincident 0,79 0,63 0,91

lead 1 0,54 0,55 0,78

lead 2 0,18 0,28 0,48

Source of Ref series :Eurostat

Index of turnover in services - quarterly data, y – y-1

Seasonally adjusted and adjusted data by working days

BSC: quarterly average

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CONSUMER SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2015

September 2015, Monthly Questions EU 28 SI HR ME MK BH

Confidence Indicator (Q2 + Q4 - Q7 + Q11) / 4 -5,5 -5,2 -21,5 -19,6 -5,3 -31,48

Financial situation over last 12 months -7,0 -16,3 -20,0 -17,9 -16,0 -19,09

Financial situation over next 12 months 0,6 -3,4 -5,1 3,4 8,6 -7,80

General economic situation over last 12 months -11,1 -21,7 -28,4 -23,7 -18,7 -45,94

General economic situation over next 12

months -4,9 2,1 -8,4 -5,1 4,2 -34,97

Price trends over last 12 months -3,8 -1,2 18,1 15,0 21,0 22,94

Price trends over next 12 months 5,0 -3,4 1,0 -10,0 1,2 16,29

Unemployment expectations over next 12

months 16,3 3,1 21,6 18,5 1,5 31,59

Major purchases at present -0,7 -23,1 -34,8 -51,3 -44,8 -42,07

Major purchases over next 12 months -15,0 -12,6 -28,0 -36,3 -30,1 -31,35

Savings at present 7,3 -23,4 -31,9 -45,7 -6,6 -40,19

Savings over next 12 months -1,2 -16,3 -51,0 -58,3 -32,4 -51,56

Statement on financial situation of household 16,3 21,9 -13,5 -0,6 -7,4 -9,11

We finished one way of Consumer Survey in Bosnia and Herzegovina and

we got results for the same period from CSO of Serbia