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Eric de Jong COO OTTO Work Force Demographic changes in Europe and the impact on labour markets and labour migration 2015 - 2030.

Jan 19, 2016

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Page 1: Eric de Jong COO OTTO Work Force Demographic changes in Europe and the impact on labour markets and labour migration 2015 - 2030.
Page 2: Eric de Jong COO OTTO Work Force Demographic changes in Europe and the impact on labour markets and labour migration 2015 - 2030.

Eric de JongCOO OTTO Work Force

Demographic changes in Europe and the impact on labour markets and labour migration 2015 - 2030

Page 3: Eric de Jong COO OTTO Work Force Demographic changes in Europe and the impact on labour markets and labour migration 2015 - 2030.

OTTO Work ForceEmployment offer on large

scale throughout

Europe

European labour market

without borders

Over 15.000 flex workers

mainly in The Netherlands, Germany and

Poland

Demographic development

is our key factor

Page 4: Eric de Jong COO OTTO Work Force Demographic changes in Europe and the impact on labour markets and labour migration 2015 - 2030.

OTTO Work Force specialist on Labour Migration in EU since 2000

We know the market

resources for our clients

We know and understand our client’s needs

15 years experience on the European Labour Market

Page 5: Eric de Jong COO OTTO Work Force Demographic changes in Europe and the impact on labour markets and labour migration 2015 - 2030.

Turnover in € x 1. 000

Turnover in hours x 1.000

Total recruitment hours x 1.000

Number FTE stafemployees

50

1

Poland

€ 30.1638.397

163

Germany

€ 48.6502.581

64

The Netherlands

€ 158.411

8.391

189

Slovakia

€ 2.054

1.169

1.550

52

3.7082.846

€ 207 mio (2014)€ 237 mio (2015)

-----

Ukraine

€ 141167

9

167

Czech Republic

€ 158

417

417

4

Hungary

€ 55

144

144

2

Turnover 2014/2015

Page 6: Eric de Jong COO OTTO Work Force Demographic changes in Europe and the impact on labour markets and labour migration 2015 - 2030.

Labour migration

PolandBelarusBulgariaUkraineRomania

Denmark

France

Germany

The United Kingdom

Spain

The Netherlands

Page 7: Eric de Jong COO OTTO Work Force Demographic changes in Europe and the impact on labour markets and labour migration 2015 - 2030.

2000 2015 20300

50

100

150

200

250

300

17% 16% 15%

67% 65% 60%

16%19% 25%

00-14 15-64 ages over 64

Million262

279287

Growth p.a.2015-2030

1,9%

-0,3%

-0.1%

0.2%

Western Europe: still growing but greying

- 8.1 mln.

People In working

population

Page 8: Eric de Jong COO OTTO Work Force Demographic changes in Europe and the impact on labour markets and labour migration 2015 - 2030.

- 0,1%

Germany: shrinking and greying

2000 2015 20300

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

15% 13% 13%

69%66%

59%

16%21%

28%

00-14 15-64 ages over 64

MillionGrowth p.a. 2015-2030

1.7%

-0.9%

0%

81.9 80.7 79.3

- 8.1 mln.

People on the labour

market- 6.6 mln.

people in working

population

Page 9: Eric de Jong COO OTTO Work Force Demographic changes in Europe and the impact on labour markets and labour migration 2015 - 2030.

2000 2015 20300

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

18% 15% 14.5%

69%69%

64%

13%16%

21.5%

00-14 15-64 ages over 64

Million127

112

111

1.5%

-1%

-0.8%

Growth p.a. 2015-2030

-0.5%

CEE: shrinking and greying

- 11.3 mln.

people in working

population

Page 10: Eric de Jong COO OTTO Work Force Demographic changes in Europe and the impact on labour markets and labour migration 2015 - 2030.

2015 202536

38

40

42

44

46

48

All educated levels, all in-dustries

(2015 and 2025) in million people

Demand for labour

6.5

0.8

2015 202522

24

26

28

30

32

34

High school educated level, all industries

(2015 and 2025) in million people

Demand for labour Supply of labour

0.2

-2.5

LACK OF HIGH SCHOOL EDUCATED LABOURERS PUTS PRESSURE ON GERMAN LABOUR MARKET

Page 11: Eric de Jong COO OTTO Work Force Demographic changes in Europe and the impact on labour markets and labour migration 2015 - 2030.

Wholesale/Retail

Manufacturing

Other Services

Transportation

Public Administration

Construction

MEA

Hotels and Catering

Health

BPOS

Education

ICT

Financial

Power Generation

Water

Professional services

Mining

Real Estate

Not identified

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%

share in % of total increase of demand for labour all educated levels in 2015-2025

PRESSURE CONCENTRATED ON SPECIFIC SECTORS IN GERMANY

Page 12: Eric de Jong COO OTTO Work Force Demographic changes in Europe and the impact on labour markets and labour migration 2015 - 2030.

Tightening on the labour market 2015 - 2025

Germany total 6 mln.

University 0,8 mlnHigh school 3,1 mlnRest 2,1 mln

Netherlands total 1,3 mln

University 0,2 mlnHigh school 0,5 mlnRest 0,6 mln

Poland total 2.5 mln.

University 0,2 mln.High school + 0,5 mln.Rest 2,8 mln.

Page 13: Eric de Jong COO OTTO Work Force Demographic changes in Europe and the impact on labour markets and labour migration 2015 - 2030.

1.

•WE workforce is shrinking in 2015 -2030 with 8.1 million or 0.3% p.a. due to greying of the population, but the total population increases still with 0.2%.

2.

•In the CEE group the workforce will be shrinking by 11.3 million people or 1% p.a., the total population will shrink with 0.5% in the same period.

3.

•The loss of labourers in CEE causes shortages there at the labour markets.

4.

•Labour shortages in WE, like in Germany will stimulate migration from countries in CEE.

5.

•The German example shows strong demand in wholesale and retail, manufacturing, transport and services .

PRESSURE CONCENTRATED ON SPECIFIC SECTORS IN GERMANY Conclusions

Page 14: Eric de Jong COO OTTO Work Force Demographic changes in Europe and the impact on labour markets and labour migration 2015 - 2030.

Conclusion6. Traditional ‘east to west’ migration will remain

7. Migration inside CEE will remain as well (Ukraine to Poland)

8. Wages will increase in all regions

9. Countries should be attractive for potential labour migrants

10. Labour migrants should integrate (cultural, language)

Page 15: Eric de Jong COO OTTO Work Force Demographic changes in Europe and the impact on labour markets and labour migration 2015 - 2030.

Succesfull labour

migration OTTO Work

Force

Variable job offersOffers for all age groups

Offers for Holiday workersShort term offersLong term offers

Offers for couples and groupsVariable levels of skills

Recruitment processCultural fit testLanguage tests

OTTO best matchOTTO Work Students

Onboarding proces

OTTO 3D Warehousetrainer

Language skills development

OTTO Academy Service

Organized infastructureExpert in managing migration

proces

We deliver not only resources to our

client but also help them in resulting

flexibility and productivity with the

immigrants. This at the end results in

optimising labour costs.

Page 16: Eric de Jong COO OTTO Work Force Demographic changes in Europe and the impact on labour markets and labour migration 2015 - 2030.

Questions?