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This document is downloaded from DR‑NTU (https://dr.ntu.edu.sg) Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. Energy scenario and perspectives in SAARC countries : case study of Bangladesh Rafidul Islam Khan 1988 Rafidul Islam Khan. (1988). Energy scenario and perspectives in SAARC countries ‑ case study of Bangladesh. In Economic perspectives of SAARC : Dacca, Bangladesh, 19‑24 November 1988. Singapore: Asian Mass Communication Research and Information Centre. https://hdl.handle.net/10356/90759 Downloaded on 23 Dec 2021 14:43:45 SGT
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Page 1: Energy scenario and perspectives in SAARC countries : case ...

This document is downloaded from DR‑NTU (https://dr.ntu.edu.sg)Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.

Energy scenario and perspectives in SAARCcountries : case study of Bangladesh

Rafidul Islam Khan

1988

Rafidul Islam Khan. (1988). Energy scenario and perspectives in SAARC countries ‑ casestudy of Bangladesh. In Economic perspectives of SAARC : Dacca, Bangladesh, 19‑24November 1988. Singapore: Asian Mass Communication Research and Information Centre.

https://hdl.handle.net/10356/90759

Downloaded on 23 Dec 2021 14:43:45 SGT

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Energy Scenario And Perspectives In SAARC Countries Case Study Of Bangladesh

By

Rafidul Islam Khan

Paper No.12

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SEMINAR ON ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES OF SAARC DHAKA, NOVEMBER 19-21]., 1988

SPONSORED BY PRESS INSTITUTE OF BANGLADESH

\ND .-XIAN MASS COMMUNICATION RESEARCH AND INFORMATION CENTRE. SINGAPORE

•17

ENERGY SCENARIO AND PERESPECTIVES IN SAARS COUNTRIES - A CASE STUDY OF

BANGLADESH

BY RAFIDUL ISLAM KHAN

JOINT CHIEF PLANNING COMMISSION

THE 21 NOVEMBER, 1988 DHAKA,BANGLADESH

TL\3 v i e v s e x p r e s s e d i n t h i s p a p e r a r e t h o s e of t h e a u t h o r , a n d do n o t n e c e s s a r i l y r e f l e c t t h e v i e w s of P l a n n i n g Commiss ion .

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60NTENTS

INTRODUCTION

1, ENERGY SCENARIO IN BANGLADESH

1.1 General

1.2 Commercial Energy Si tuat ion

1.3 T rad i t i ona l Energy Si tua t ion

2 , ENERGY INSTITUTIONS IN BANGLADESH

3 , ENERGY RESOURCES IN BANGLADESH

3.1 Commercial Energy Resources

3.2 T r a d i t i o n a l Energy Resources

3 . 3 N o n - C o n v e n t i o n a l / A l t e r n a t i v e E n e r g y

R e s o u r c e s

2+c ENERGY DEMAND SUPPLY SITUATION IN 2000 AD,

ij.,1 C o m m e r c i a l E n e r g y Demand S i t u a t i o n

it-c.2 C o m m e r c i a l Ene rgy Supp ly S i t u a t i o n

I(-.3 T r a d i t i o n a l Ene rgy Demand-Supply S i t u a t i o n

? e ENERGY POLICY AND DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY

5o1 G e n e r a l 5<»2 E n e r g y P o l i c y and Development S t r a t e g y

>c SUCCESS AND FAILURE IN ENERGY SECTOR DEVELOPMENT

6.1 Success

6 . 2 F a i l u r e

\, SOME ASPECTS OF ENERGY SITUATION IN SAARC COUNTRIES

, 1 7 .1 G e n e r a l 7.2 Uncommon Aspects

7.3 Common Aspects

r REGIONAL CO-OPERATION

c ROLE OF JOURNALISTS

„ CONCLUSIONS

, REFERENCES

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LIST OF TABLES

Relationship between p r-capita commercial energy consumption and per-capita GDP of a few selected countries for the year 1986

Primary commercial energy consumption pattern in Bangladesh, 197^-75 to 1987-88

Estimated traditional energy consumption in"Bangladesh in 1987-88

Commercial energy consumption pattern (fuel-wise and sector-wise) in Bangladesh in 1987-83

Energy Import cost as percentage of march-andide export earnings

Commercial energy resources in SAARC countries

A few energy and energy-related parameters in SAARC countries

Dependence on domestic commercial energy, non-commercial energy and imported energy (in percentage) in SAARC countries

Share of various type of commercial energy in the consumption of commercial energy * i:Z x in South Asia

Commercial energy intensity and oil inten­sity in a few selected countries for the year 1983 using index of 1970-100

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Energy is a vital input for socio-economic development of

a countryt It is a principal production factor in industry, agri-in domestic sector for

culture and services. It serves as a key consumer good/cooking

and lighting and influences the external sector by its importance

as an export-import commodity. The economic growth and balanced

socio-economic development are, therefore, closely related to the

quantum of energy consumption in a country. The more or less dire-

cc relationship between per capita GNP of a country end its per-

capita commercial energy consumption is a testimony to the above

statement (Table-l). The importance of energy as a factor of deve­

lopment is further evidenced when we see how the 'Oil Crises' of

1970s paralyzed the economic activities of the oil-importing coun­

tries leading to large scale inflation, recession, unemployment

and trade ,' ap, although oil constitutes only one of the major

sources of energy supplies.

Bangladesh, a country of about 110 million people thruscing

over an area of Ilili,000 Sq„ Km., is striving hard for the last

or° decade snd a half to improve its socio-economic condition,

7uL one of the major constraints that stood in its way was ina­

dequate supply of commercial energy resources. The'Oil Crises'

of 1970s aggravated the situation. The disastrous effect of oil

nhocks on the economy was, however, averted by two appropriate

: nd timely government policy, namely, substitution of imported

rii by the indigenous natural f as and subsidizing oil prices in

Sorr.estjc market. The situation has, however, been improved by

tow due to declining oil prices in the international market since

I 983 and containing the quantum of oil import through increased

pse of indigenous natural gas. The share of natural gas in the

~otal commercial energy consumption increases from about 25% in

97I4--75 to over 60% in 1987-88.

Even with a commercial energy growth rate of about Q% in tie

; he last decade, the per capita commercial energy consumption is

I till very low to t.h° r.rd~r of ^0 Kg. of oil equivalent (KgOE) 21 th^ vop-" --"7 -PM. ' ^

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(ii)

The situation in respect of non-commercial/traditional

energy resources is no better than that of commercial energy.

Its per-capita availability richer decreases these years du to

population boom, on one hand, and shrinkages of forest area/re­

sources on the other hand. The highly inefficient energy con *•

version technology for bio-mas^ adds to the situation.

Realizing the importance of energy in development, govern­

ment of Bangladesh has attached high priority for the augmenta­

tion end development of energy resources of the country includ­

ing their efficient use. The allocation for energy development

has been raised in successive plan period, and is about 23% of

the total public sector outlay in Third Five Year Plan(1985-90).

The energy situation of other SAARC countries except India

is no better than that of Bangladesh. All are energy importing

countries to a varying degree. Some of these countries use over

95% traditional energy resources in total energy consumption

and some of them import 100% of their commercial energy resou­

rces „ The present resources base for commercial energy is also

very -T .^ in many of these countries, although some of them

have good potentials/prospects

In this paper, I have attempted to discuss the energy si­

tuation in Bangladesh, its present consumption status, resources

base, future perspectives, energy policy and development strategy

-and the success and failure in the energy area. I have also tou­

ched upon the broad energy situation in SAARC countries and

rhigh-lighted the areas of co-operation and collaboration among

"them. I also underscored the role of journalist in solving

Eeriergy problems of their respective country as well as fostering

rco-operation among the SAARC countries. A conclusion has been

prawn at the end.

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1_ ENERGY SCENARIO IN BANGLADESH

1.1 General :

The economy of Bangladesh is characterized by a very low

energy use. The per-capita energy consumption hardly exceeds

i65 Kg. of oil equivalent (Kg OE) in the year 1987-88. About

30% of this energy is derived frcm commercial ccui-.J c-nd the

rest from traditional sources. According to World Bank Develop­

ment Report of 1988, the per-capita commercial enc/gy consump­

tion of the country was \\S KgOE, only 1l|.% of the average cons­

umption of 36 low-income countries of the World (Table 1). The

•Oil Crises' of 1970s severely affected the economy of the cou­

ntry and its balance of payment situation. The import bill for

oil as a percentage of merchandise export earring rose frcm 10%

in, 1972-73 to 87% in 1981-82. This however has dropped to 25%

in 1987-88 due to fall in oil price in international market

since 1983 and containing the quantum of oil importe The con­

sumption oi energy in its primary form dominates the energy sce­

nario, with domestic sector consuming as much as 70% of the total

fenergy. The energy system of the country is divided into two se­

parate markets by the as yet unbridged Jamuna riverc The East

Zone is relatively energy rich, whereas, the Western Zone with

similar population has no developed resources of significance.

Lhile the dt-;a base and the institutional structure for dealing

«-rith commercial energy is quite developed and organized, these

L.re yet very weak for tradition: 1 energy resources. The very lov/

.evel of the energy consumption along with the greater share of

raditional :nergy indicates a highly under-developed tradition-

1 economy of the country,.

i?.„- Commer'ial Energy Situation :

i) The pe T capita primary commercial energy consumption in

1937-81) in about 50 KgOE. About 63% of this energy is

supplied by indigenous natural gas, 32% from imported

oil an«. the rest from hydel power and imported coal

(Table ';). The average growth rate of commercial energy

I is aboi ! 8% in the last decade.-The sector-wise commercial

energy .consumption pattern is shown in Table -• l\.c

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ii) The consumption of natural gas in the year 1987-88 is

about l\. Billion Cubic metre which is equivalent to 3.k

million tons of oil.

iii) The import of crude oil and oil-products in 1987-88. is

about, 1.8 million tons, i nd this takes a^ay about 25>% of

the export earning. The POL consumption in 1987-88 is

about 1.7 million tons of which the share of diesel and

kerosine is "r'ver 60%.

iv) The per capita scondary energy i.e. electricity genera­

tion is also very low to the tune of 60 KWh in 1987-88.

The total generation capacity is 1600 MW in 1987-88 of

which only 20% is located in the Western Zone, The power

plants in the Eastern Zone is based on natural gas (exc­

ept small hydro-power) and those in the Western Zone is

based on imported oil. The share of electricity in the

total commercial energy is about 30%.

v) An East-West Electric Interconnector to transfer gas-

base i electricity from the East Zone to the West Zone has

been in operation since ',982. The present transmission

line of 132 KV is being upgraded to 230 KV line so as to

enable transfer of about 500 MW of electricity.

vi) The operational efficiency of the power system is not

satisfactory with a high system loss of about 35>-^0%.

It is assumed that 50% of this loss is due to pilferage

or thoft.

vii) The country has only one refinary at Chittagong, with

a designed capacity of 1.5 million tons. However, its

production pattern compared with product demand has con­

sistently shown a shortage of mid-distillate (Kerosine/

diese ) and surplus of naptha and fuel oil.

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viii) The price of commercial energy is reviewed and fixed by

the government taking into consideration of both commer­

cial and social aspects. Differential pricing system for

different categories of consumers and for different fuels

is in practice. At present the prices of natural gas and

electricity are lower than their economic prices, whereas

prices for oil products are higher than their border pri»,

ces.

ix) As on June 30, 1988 a total of 3,35,000 gas connections

and 13,61].,000 electricity connections were given to the

consumers.

1.3 Traditional Energy Situation :

i) Abou: 70% of the total energy is supplied from traditional

energy resources, and 85% of the population living in

rural, areas are more or less entirely dependent on it.

Only a small amount of Kerosine is used by them for lig­

hting. Table-3 shows the consumption and composition of

traditional energy supplies in 1987-88,

ii) As mo.it part (about 70%) of the traditional energy reso­

urces are by-product of agricultural development rather

than that of energy planning, their supply is always vul­

nerable to natural calamities like flood and drought, &

hence rery uncertain.

ii) The growth rate of traditional energy supplies is more

or lee s stagnant. The forest area which cover about 1l+%

of the landmass is shrinking due to population boom. The

felling rate of trees execeeds their regeneration rate.

This has resulted ecological imbalance in some part of

the cc?.ntry.

Liv) The pi .'sent energy conversion technologies particularly

the cc;king stove, are highly inefficient resulting in

under- tilization of the scarce resources.

b

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2. INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURE FOR ENERGY PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT

Planning Commission of the Government of Bangladesh is

responsible for overall planning and development of energy

resources of the country. It formulates objectives, policies,

strategies,.priorities and development target in consultation

with concerned ministries for short and medium term ( 5> years),

and provides necessary allocation to the sector. The Ministry

of Energy and Mineral Resources administers and co-ordinates

the development activities as well as formulates specific poli­

cies. The implementation of the development projects and their

operations are done by a number of agencies under the adminis­

trative control of the Energy Ministry. At present there are

seven agencies and attached departments under the Energy Minis­

try. These are :

i) Bangladesh Oil, Gas & Mineral Corporation (BOGMC)-respon­

sible for exploration and development of oil, gas and

minerals of the country. The work is done through its

subsidiaries.

ii) Power Development Board (PDB)-responsible for generation

transmission and partly distribution of electricity in

the country.

iii) Rural Electrification Board (REB)-entrusted with the res­

ponsibility of distribution of electricity to th? rural

areas Jhrough Palli Biddutayan Samity (PBS).

iv) Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC)-responsible for

import of crude oil and petroleum products, refining of

crude and marketing of -POL through three subsidiary mar­

keting companies.

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v) Geological Survey of Bangladesh (GSB)-responsible for

preparation of geological maps of the country and inves­

tigating primarily solid mineral resources.

vi) Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission (BAEC) - responsible

for conducting researches in various field using atomic

energy as well as for developing nuclear power genera­

tion.

vii) Bangladesh Petroleum Institute (BPl)-responsible for

training of petroleum sector manpower and limited rese­

arch.

The activities for rural and renewable energy development

spread over a number of ministries and agencies, and greater

Dart of these activities are being done in private sector,,

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3. ENERGY RESOURCES

3.1 Commercial Energy Resources :

i)Natural Gas - II4. gas fields have so far been discovered

in the country of which c ily one lies in the off-shorec The estimated reserve is about 12 Trillion uubic feet

(TCF). Some of these gas fields contain high amount of

condensate (Diesel/Motor spirit) with an estimated res­

erve of about 20 million barrels. All the gas fields are

located in the eastern zone of the country*

ii) Oil-only one oil field has been discovered at Haripur in

Sylhet. The estimated recoverable reserve is 10-15 million

barrels. There is a bright prospect of finding more oil/

gas fields in the country.

iii) Coal-Two big coal fields have been discovered in the wes­

tern zone of the country. The one at Jamalganj with an

estimated reserve of about 1 billion tons of coal lies at

a de-th of over 900 metres and hence its economic viabi­

lity of exploitation is doubtful. The otner at Barapuku-

ria wjth an estimated reserve of 250 million tons and

lying between the depths of 150-350 metres seems highly

promising for exploitation. A feasibility study for* this

deposit is being undertaken.

iv) Peat ••• Peat occurs throughout the country wit1-', - wo big

deposits in Faridpur and Khulna. The estimated reserve

is abuut 150 million tons on dry weight basis.

v) Hydro-Power-Because of the S":.'.t terrain, the hydro-power

potential of the country is limited. According to the

Power System Master Plan (PSMP), the potential hardly ex­

ceeds '-500 Gwh mostly from Karnafully River „

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3.2 Traditional Energy Resources :

i) Agricultural Residu~3 - It is estimated that 70 million

tons of agricultural residues are produced annually in

the country of which 26.6 million tons are used as fuel.

These resources can, at best, grow at the rate of 1% per

annum in future.

ii) Wood Fuels - The present extraction of woe::~fv•::.:• ..'.: cbout

5.7 million tons of which fuel-wood constitutes k million

tons. As the extraction already exceeded the regenera­

tion capacity, the future availability of these resources

may decrease.

iii) Cowdung - About 6.7 million tons of cow-dung is presently

usee1 as fuel. There is little possibility for its increa­

sed availability in future, but its efficiency of use

can be significantly increase if these can be used as bio-

- gas.

«

.3.3 Non- '-onventional/Allternative Energy Resources :

i) Non-tcnventional - Only solar energy of this group can

find some application in near future provided cost-effec­

tive technologies are developed.

ii)Alternative Energy Resources - Liquefied petroleum gas

(LPG) and Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) have t>uiLe possi­

bility of future use as a substitute for kerosine and

motor spirit respectively in a limited way.

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k. ENERGY DEMAND-SUPPLY SITUATION IN 2000 AD

, 1 Projected Commercial Energy Demand :

As the energy consumption is primarily a function of

upply rather than actual demand, its long-term demand projec-

ion is difficult. The uncertainties in population and economic

rowth further complicate the matter. Besides, it depends on too

any externalities such as resource discovery, price in interna-

ional market, availability of fund for energy resources deve-

Dpment etc. However, some demand projections has been made as

elow :

>urce jj Assumptions jj Projections for

| j 2 Q 0 0 A D (In MTOE)

tngladesl. i) Population: 158 million 12.00 lergy Stvdy in 2000 AD BSS

i i ) Per -capi ta GDP in 2000 in 1972-73 : 1312 pr ices

rig lade si i ) Population in 2000 AD : 10.50 tergy Planning 132e8 m o j e c t (B-.DP)

i i ) Average GDP growth r a t e between 1985-2000 : 5.8c/o

xhor 's i ) Population in 2000 AD: 11+0 m 1ij-,00 ximate ii) Per-capita energy ' 100Kg0E

consumption at a level of 50% of the existing level of India/Pakistan

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1|.3 Demand-Supply Situation in Traditional Energy :

The demand-supply situation in respect of traditional

energy will be more critical in 2000 AD. According to Bangladesh

Energy Planning Project (BEPP), even with all efforts for the a

augmentation of fuel-wood resources and improvement in the energy

conversion- technology, there would be a total deficit of 520 Peta

Joules (PJ) of energy, equivalent to 35.5 million tons of fuel -

wood during the period 1985 - 2000. This has to be met from co­

mmercial/alternative energy resources.

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5„ ENERGY POLICY AND DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY IN BANGLADESH

5.1 General :

Like most other countries of the world energy was virtua­

lly a non-issue in Bangladesh till 1973. This was primarily du

to low consumption of commercial energy in the country and the

availability of very low priced oil in the international market.

The . situation was, however, changed from 197i+ due to two oil

shocks, one in early 197U- and the other in 1979-80. The import

bill for oil in Bangladesh as a percentage of merchandise export

rose from about 10% in 1972-73 to 87% in 1981-82 (Table - 5).

However, with the decline of oil price in international market

since 1983 and sudden fall of oil price in 1986, this situation

has been changed. The import bill for oil in 1987-88 was about

25% of the export earnings.

In order to arest the critical energy situation of 1970s

several quic> policies and measures were adopted by the govern­

ment of Bangladesh. Two of such important measures were substitu*

tion of imported oil by the indigenous natural gas and keeping

the oil prict lower in domestic market than the import price.

These measure" saved the country from disaster. Besides, a number

of other sctit. as were implemented, which included formulation of

a National Energy Policy in 1980, formulation of two master plan on

energy in 1976 and 1987 ; preparation of a power system master

plan (PSMP) in 1985 ; creation of Rural Electrification Board in

1978 to supply electricity to rural areas; a New and Renewable

Energy Wing ani a Energy Modelling and Economic Wing in Planning

"ommission in '982 and 1988 respectively; intensification of hydro­

carbon explJira* rorr. activities, massive afforestation programme ;

and completion a number of feasibility and other studies for

assessment and efficient development of energy resources.

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5.2 Energy Policy and Development Strategy :

The short and long-term energy policy and stretegy of the

government are as follows :

i) To make available increased quantum of energy particularly

the commercial energy at a reasonable cost to the people.

ii) To reduce dependence on imported oil through increased

development of indigenous natural gas.

iii) To intensify exploration activities for the augmentation

of hydrocarbon as well as solid energy minerals, and in­

volve private sector/multinational oil companies through

production sharing contract (PSC).

iv) To aacimise the use of natural gas for power generation

and develop power system according to least cost expan­

sion programmes.

v)To rec.ove regional imbalances in energy consumption by

transfering low-cost gas-based electricity of the East

Zone to the West Zone through Electrical Inter-connectors

as well as taking gas through pipeline.

vi) To ensure efficient use of natural gas and electricity and

reduce system loss in Power.

vii) To intei sify extension of power supply to rural areas.

viii) T0 gradually raise the gas price and power tariff to their

economi^ price level for their efficient and economic use and

and for generation of sufficient revenue for re-investment

keeping in mind the social considerations.

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ix) To augment the bio-mass resources through social fores­

try and other afforestation programme.

x) To develop appropriate cost-effective technology for

efficient uses of bio-mass, harnessing new renewable

energy resources and alternative energy resources.

xi) To reorganize and strengthen existing energy related

organizations for proper planning, timely execution and

efficient operation and maintenance of projects.

xii) To develop appropriate manpower through proper education

and training and reduce dependence on expatriate experts

and consultants.

xiii) "o undertake prompt measures for the development of

Barapukuria coal and study the feasibility of develop­

ing peat domestic and industrial uses.

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6. SUCCESS AND FALLURE IN ENERGY SECTOR

6.1 Success :

i) Substitution of Imported Oil : Through increased use of

natural gas, it has been possible to contain the oil im­

port at the level of around 1.6 million tons during last

decade. The share if natural gas in the total commercial

energy mix increased from about 25% in 1971+-75 to 63% in

1987-88, while that of oil dropped from 56% to 31% in the

same period.

ii) Rural Electrification Programme : The rural electrifica­

tion programme has, by this time, been able to make some

dent; in the development of rural areas not only in terms

of industrial and agricultural development but also in

improving the quality of life of rural people through

hou-e electrification. Till June 1988, a total of 3,32,000

consumers have been provided with electricity.

iii) Pricing Policy of Commercial Energy : The pricing policy

so far pursued in respect of oil, gas and electricity,

although slightly deviated from the standard practice of

fixing price at their economic level, can be considered

adequate as it saved the country from economic disaster

and r.'elped in boosting up economic activities,

iv) Removal of Regional Disparity- By constructing 132 KV East

v/est Interconnector (it is now being upgraded to 230 KV

line) it has been possible to transfer about 1700 Gwh of

gas-based electricity from the eastern ona to meet the during 19o3-oo

energy deficit of the western zone/. This has enabled some

improvement in regional disparity and hence economic deve-

lopme , t.

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Increase in Per-capita Consumption of Commercial Energy:

Inspite of the fact that the per-capita consumption of

commercial energy consumption is very low even today,

yet due to attachment of high priority by the govern­

ment, it has been possible to raise the level of con­

sumption from about 25 KgOE in 1971]--75 is about 50 KgOE

in 1987-88. This is a commendable achievement in the

preval.ing-. socio-economic conditions.

Failure :

Development of Rural Energy Due to low emphasis in this

area both in terms of resource allocation and institu­

tional development very little progress has been made in

a lgmenting traditional energy resources and in develop­

ing and diffusing efficient energy conversion technolo­

gies.

Reduction of Power System Loss - Inspite of some <?fi~

OILS, the power system loss particularly that is due

to theft or pilferage could not be reduced to the desi­

red extent. The total system loss even today is about

35-40%.

Imbalanced Development within the Power and Natural Gas

Gas System - Severe imbalances exist between the gene­

ration of electricity and its transmission and distri­

bution due to lack of integrated development programme.

So c.lso the case with gas sector where production capa­

city is sometimes much higher than the transmission and

distribution capacity. Besides, lack of proper grid sys­

tem ''interconnections among different gas produc.-;;-

fie .ds; surplus capacity remains in "some fields, i-. en

def oit in supply exists in others. Again when there is

suri .us capacity in gas sector, power and industrial

sec. >r fail to utilize it and vice-versa.

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) Disparity in Intra-sectoral Investment - . When big

thrust is given for the exploration and development of

hydro-carbon (oil/gas) resources, there is little empha­

sis as well/allocation for the exploration and develop­

ment of solid energy rineral resources like coal and

peat.

) Conservation and Environmental Protection - Although

these aspects are often talked about, there is little

supporting action programme to implement the policy de­

cision and project in these areas.

) Manpower Development - The present education and trai­

ning system and facilities of the country have not yet

I een properly attuned to cater to the need of the

energy sector manpower in respect of level, category &

number. Foreign education and training also have not

boen very effective as these are not programmed on the

basis of requirement but on opportunities and fund avai­

lability.

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7. SOME ASPECTS OF ENERGY SITUATION IN SAARC COUNTRIES

7.1 General :

Non-availability of adequate and up-to-date data and in­

formation on energy situation of the SAARC countries other than

Bangladesh, it was not possible to depict the energy picture of

these countries in desired form. However, with the little infor­

mation available to the author, an attempt has been made to dis­

cuss a few aspects below. I am sure, this would enable the par­

ticipants at least to have some qualitative idea on energy in

these countries. It is observed that inspite of wide variation

in respect of size and population, geographic location, energy

resource base, level and structure of energy consumption, there

are many aspects which are common in these countries. The com­

mercial anergy resources base of. the SAARC countries is shown

in Table - 6.

7.2 Un common Aspects in the Energy Area :

. i) Commercial Energy Resources Base : There is a signifi­

cant variation in commercial energy resources base of

these countries. While India has a sizeable reserves of

all kind of resources, Maldives has virtually none (Table-6),

ii) Sources of Energy Supply : While 95>% of the total energy

con.'; jmed in Nepal and Bhutan is derived from traditional

resources, for Pakistan it is only 30% (Table - 7)«

iii) Comnercial Energy Consumption : The per capita commer­

cial energy consumption in Nepal is only 23 KgOE in 1986,

while-in India and Pakistan this quantum is over 200 KgOE

(Tali.e - 1).

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iv) Sources of Commercial Energy : While natural gas is

the principal sources of commercial energy in Bangla­

desh and Pakistan, in India it is cc^l and in Srilanka

it is oil (Table - 9).

v) Share of Imported Energy in the Total Commercial Energy:

While this is only about 11+.% in India, for Maldives it

is 100% percent (Table - 7).

vi) Forest Area : Forest area as a percentage of total are,a

of the country varies from 5% in Pakistan to 30% in Nepal

(Table - 7) !

7.3 Common Aspects in the Energy Area :

i) Low level of per-capita commercial energy consumption

comparing to many other low-income countries (Table-1).

ii) All the SAARC countries are energy importing (Table-8),

iii) Except Pakistan, traditional energy dominates the energy

sc^naries of these countries (Table-7)

iv) Greater majority of the population, more or less enti­

rely, depends on traditional energy resources.

v) House-hold sector consumes greater share of the total

energy.

vi) Tho commercial energy intensity of these countries are

higher than other countries (Table-10).

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vii) The potential commercial energy resources of these

countries are yet to be explored and assessed.

viii) All the countries suffer from capital resource cons­

traints for accelerated development of energy resources.

ix) The Energy Policy of these countries are, more or less,

of similar nature, and aimed at :

(a) augmentation of commercial energy resources base

through accelerated exploration for hydro-carbons

and involvement of multinational oil companies in

the activities.

(b) reduce dependence on imported energy by maximising

the use of indigenous resources.

(c) increase efficiency of the energy systems and

develop and diffuse efficient traditional energy

conversion technologies.

.l) harness renewable and non-conventional sources of

energy such as solar, wind mini-hydro etc. through

extensive R & D programme. ,

(e) conservation and environmental protection inclu­

ding ecological balance.

(J) Supply increased quantum of commercial energy to

invigorate development activities.

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: 20 :

8, REGIONAL CO-OPERATION

I strongly feel that regional co-operation among the

SAARC countries for the development of the energy sector

should be no more a desire but a must for common benefit. From

history we have learnt that no country can prosper alone lea­

ving her neighbours behind. That's why regional co-operation

and development concepts have found a high order of momentum

in the past few decades all over the World. Realizing this

truth, the SAARC has already been formed. It is now time to

develop and implement action-oriented programme for common

benefit. Co-operation in the energy sector may play the pion­

eering role in this direction. The SAARC countries can estab­

lish co-operation and collaboration- in the following three

broad areas :

(a) Soft-ware Area :

i) Develop an exchange programme for higher educa­

tion and training,

i) Exchange and disseminate, concerned data, informa­

tion, publications^ research findings etc*

iii) Hold seminar, workshop and conference in a planned

way on general as well as specific topic of common

interest to exchnage ideas, views and share exper­

iences

' /) Organize visits to different relevant research

institutions to have ideas not only on research

programme but also the institutional development,

management, co-ordination etc.

r) Transform one or two research centre in each

country as a H Centre of Excellence " in some • c

specified field for common purpose.

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(t>) Joint Venture Areas :

i)Undertake joint research programme in common

areas of interest particularly in developing non-

conventional form of energy.

ii)Undertake joint exploration program for hydro­

carbon particularly in areas where geological

boundary transcends geographical/political boun­

dary.

iii)Form a common pool of knowledge and expertise to

undertake feasibility or other studies in any

country as and when needed.

iv)Develop energy resources of a country for meeting

the regional demand where over such opportunities

lie- .

v)Build some industrial plants in suitable country/

location for catering the need of hard-ware requi­

rements i.e. machinery and equipment, gas pipe and

processing stant etc, which does not become feasi­

ble for meeting only self-demand. ,

(c) Trade/Commerce :

Development a system for procuring or supplying

goor.;. and services on and related to energy by one coun-at

try _:rom and tc tr- mother/ concessional prices and easy

tenrr> v/hereaver possible .

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22

9. ROLE OF JOURNALISTS IN SAARC COUNTRIES

Journalists, whom I consider as a catalyst for develop­

ment, can play rather should play a vital role in the solution

of energy problems of their respective countries as well as in

fostering and promoting regional co-operation for common bene­

fit. Through scientific, analytical and logical presentation

of facts and ideas, they can convince the people and the gov­

ernment about the right and realintfjc course of actions to be

pursued in respect of energy sector development and in over­

coming problems and conflicts.

Journalists Can :

i) Create awareness in the people about the energy problems

ai d prospects of the country as well as regional and glo­

be 1 energy situation*

ii) Apprise people of the merit of conservation of energy

re sources and how it pays to the individuals and the

country.

iii) Crexte awarness in the people about the consequences of

deforestation and afforestation and how these affect and

can affact their lives and living.

iv) Mot., vate people in the use of new technologies and app-

liar ;es for the efficient use of bio-mass and explain

the? how these will curtail their expenditure and improve

the. c quality of life.

v) Help government in arriving at right policy decisions by

pro^ 'Cting public views/demand .

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ix) Apprise people of th^ merit of some government deci­

sion which may be disadvantageous to them for short

period but will be beneficial in the long run.

vii) Apprise the educationists and researchers about the

real need/problem of the country and the people so that

they can plan their education and R & D programme acc­

ordingly «

viii) Project areas for regional co-operation and how this

can serve the common cause.

In order to perform the above responsibilities, the

concerned journalists must :

(a) acquire adequate knowledge and correct informa­

tion on technical, administrative, geo-political

aspects in respect of energy arena.

•'b) maintain professional ethics.

( ) provide correct and comprehensive informations

to avoid confusions, contradictions and conflicts.

(i) go beyond self-interest and political bias.

( ) consider human as a race.

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10. CONCLUSIONS

10.1 From the foregoing discussion it appears that inspite of

greater thrust for the development of energy resources by the

government of Bangladesh, the present situation is not a happy

one. The per-capita energy consumption particularly the commer­

cial energy consumption is yet very low. Greater majority of

the population still more or less entirely depend on traditi­

onal energy resources whose per capita supply is declining with

every passing year. The resources base for the commercial enrgy

is inadequate both in terms of type of fuel and their quantum

to meet the energy need. The country still wholly depends on

imported oil to meet its requirement. The efficiency of opera­

tion if the commercial energy systems particularly the power

system is low, the conversion technology for bio-mass is highly

in-effi:ient, the measures for energy conservation and environ­

mental [rotection are minimum. There is also shortage of trai­

ned manpower and logistics for effective planning, proper des­

igning, efficient execution and proper operation and maintenan­

ce of energy programmes and projects.

10.2 In the above circumstances all out effort should be made

to augment the energy resources ; supply adequate commercial

energy to both urban and rural people, maximise the use 'of ex­

isting resources; increase efficiency of energy conversion te­

chnologies ; harness alternative energy resources; diversify

energy structure and reduce energy intensity; adopt appropriate

energy pr: cing policy ; reduce wastage through conservation;

protect ecological balance and develop appropriate manpower.

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10.3 The energy situation of other SAARC countries except

India and partly Pakistan is no better than that of Bangla­

desh. The problems of these countries are of similar nature

to those of Bangladesh except very in degrees. The measures to

be adopted by these countries would be more or less in line

to those discussed in above paragraph for Bangladesh.

10.1+ Fostering greater co-operation and collaboration among

the SAARC countries in the development of energy resources

would not only benefit each country in terms of energy situa­

tion but also strengthen the bond of friendship and fellow-

feeling which are absolutely necessary for peaceful co-exis­

tence. The journalists of these countries, I hope and believe,

would do their best to accelerate this co-operation efforts

and to develop respective country's energy resources for the

welfare of the people.

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Tab le -1

R e l a t i o n s h i p between P e n - c a p i t a Commercial L'nergy Consumption _and P e r - c a p i t a _GITP of a f evj S e l e c t ed _C quntrJL.es .f QJ. A he. Year .1.9.86,

Name J>± t h e Count ry {Per c a p i t a ComfneVcial "~T -p„v p 0 , ^ - + 0 tEnergy Consumption (. in Kg ^ p | o f O i l E q u i v a l e n t ) j ( j n u s & )

_ j .

Nepal 23 150

Bangladesh 46 160

India , 208 290

P a k i s t a n 205 350

S r i l a n k a 139 400

Average cf 36 Low-Income 314 270 Coun t r i e s

China 532 300

I n d o n e s i a 213 490

T h a i l a n d 325 810

Malays i a "62 1,830

Korean Rep, 1,408 2 ,370 •

Saudi Arab ia 3,336 6 ,950

U.K. 3,802 8,870

Japan 3,186 12,840

Canada 8,945 14,120

USA 7,193 17,480

Source : TorId Development R e p o r t , 1988.

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Primary Commercial, Energy Consumption P a t t e r n in Sanglades>

19 GO-81 nn r Source of i 1,9,7.4-75

Energy Tin " • j ~~c

Jmillionj /c Jmillion ;TOE j jTOr

, _ . . _ _ i . ^% i_

N a t u r a l Gas O.468

/O

11984-85 In

{mi l l ion 'TOE

1987-88

% I n | % m i l l i o r i !

j TOE I

Oil

C o a l

Hydel Power

"ITotal:"

• 1.134

0 .212

23 56 10

0 .230 • 11

"21038" TOO"

P o p u l a t i o n ( In m i l l i o n ) 75

1 042 36 .5 1.520 53 .2

0.139 4 .9

0.155 5.4

"2785TT00"

85

2.31 5 6 . 3 3.40 1.50 36 .5 1.70 0 . 0 8 2.0 0 . 0 8

0.211

63.1

31.5

1.5

Per C a p i t a 27 .1 Consumotion (In Kg CE)

33.6

Source: P lanning Commission 7 SecorP-and Th i rd Eive Year P l a n s , and v a r i o u s r e p o r t s of Energy Wings.

T a b l e - 3

Eatjj:.:ated T r a d i t i o n a l Energy Consumption in Bangladesh in l98%-8£

Source oi Energy

; l n Trade I n i t I n M i l l i o n Tons j P e r c e n -! ( M i l l i o n Tons) } of O i l E q u i v a l e n t i t a g e

j | (KEDpE)~ \ _ _

A g r i c u l t u r a l

Residia.es

Fuel-Wood

Tree Res idues

Cow dung

26.70

4 .00

1.70

6.70

7.80

1.40

0 .50

1.80

67 .8

12.1

4 . 3

15 .8

Source: :';EPP, P l a n n i n g Commission, (Tak ing t h e 1983-84 Consumption f i g u r e C o n s t a n t ) .

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8 :

Ta

ble

-4

Co

mm

erci

al

E'n

eigy

C

on

sum

pti

on

Pa

tte

rn

(Pu

el-

v/i

se

an

d S

ec

tor-

v;i

se)

_in

Ji2

E.

.§A

.-:k

fl-t

9t8

7^-

88

(p

erc

en

tag

es)

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T a b l e - 5

Energy Import Cost As P e r c e n t a g e of Merchandise __ _5xp.or_t. Ea rn ings _ _ _ _

Year jEnergy "import -"cost j ToTaXITalfchand"ise jEnergy Cost a s " ! in m i l l i o n US <•> j ExDor t ( In m i l l i o n ! a P e r c e n t a g e of i j US*&) {Export

1972-73

1973-74

1974-75

1975-76

1976-77

1977-78

1978-79

1979-80

1980-81

1981-82

1982-83

1983-84

1984-85

1985-86

3 4 . 3

91 .1

166.9

145.2

153.1

182.8

189.0

395.3

519.3

574.3

456.0 La

361.O La

378.0 La

342.0 La

354 .2

369.7

344.1

371.9

404 .6 *

489 .8

609 .7

7 2 2 . 3

710 .7

627.0

686.0

780.0

940 .0

845 .0

9 .7

24 .7

48 .5

39.0

3 7 . 8

3 7 . 3

31.0

54 .7

73 .1

91 .1

66 .5

4 6 . 3

40 .2

' 40 .5 :

Source: Planning Commission. La does not include cost of coal :.mport.

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T a b l e - 6

Cornier cjLal Ener_gy__R_e sources , in. .SAARC C o u n t r i e s

Country i t i r t

Coal lOil (Natural|Hydel (Uranium Year of (Billion'(Million! Gas JPov.er |(M¥) fAssess-Tons) ! Tons) (TCP) {(iiW) Jment

Bangladesh'

India b

Pakistan

Srilanka c

Nepal

Bhutan

Maldives

1.0

24.8

0.15

-

-

-

-

1.5

522

17.7

*~

-

-

-

12

16.

16

-

-

-

-

7

400 •(4,000 GFh)

45,242 8,000 •(396,000 GWh)

2,000

3,500

•(80,000 GWh) -

20,000

- -

1987

1984

1985

1987

-

1987

-

Source: a) Planning Commission, Govt, of Bangladesh.

b) UEDP ESCAP - Structural Change and Energy Policy, Page-119 and 151, May, 1987.

Ci- Hossain M. Mosharraf, Hydro Carbon Exploration and Development and SAARC, Page-18 and 38, BOGliC, Dhaka.

• The bracketted figure are taken from UN/ESCAP report on Trans-Country Power Exchange and Development(Page 105) published in May, 1987.

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Tab le -7

A Saw ENERGY,. AND EimiGY-R^LATED PARAMOURS IN SAARC CQUIII'RIES

-,rriv. Country{Bhutan JNepal{Bangladesh{India I Parameter

AreaOOOO Sc . Km)

Population in 1986(million)a

47

F o r e s t Area % of t o t a l Area (1985)

as

Per caoita comm- „ ercial"energy consumption in K^ OE in 1986 a. Share of non- -commercial energy as a % of t o t a l e n e r g y ( l 9 8 5 ) c

Imported energy as a % of t o t a l commercial energy ( I98 '3 )b .

Major commercial -energy r e s o u r c e s (1983) Energy Impor t b i l l as a % of merchan­dise expo r t b i l l ( I 9 8 6 ) a .

147

17

30

23

95

70

O i l

- 25

144

103

14

i 46

75

46

17*

P a k i s t a n j S r i l a n k a { M o l d i v e

3 ,287 796

781 99

23

208 205

55 30

13.5 34 .3

19 23

6 5 . 6

16

24

139

69

84.5

N a t u r a l Coal N a t u r a l O i l Gas Gas

23

Source a, b, c,

0 .15

105

55

100

O i l

World Development Repor t , 1988.* UNDP c: BSCAP - S t r u c t u r a l Change and Energy P o l i c y , May, 19* CFOGRii, Commonwealth Regiona l C o n s u l t a t i v e Group on Energy Ik-oort of t h e 4 th mee t i ng , Me lbourne , Augus t , 1985.

d. SAARC - Seminar on De l ive ry Systems of Improved Stoves for Rura l U s e s , Dhaka, 19-21 J u n e , 1988 .

* This f i g u r e does not t a l l y wi th t n a t of P l a n n i n g Commissio;

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T a b l e - 8

D e p e n d e n c e on d o m e s t i c c o m m e r c i a l e n e r g y , n o n -coramei,cia_l en> Lrgy An_Q-_i-"ili-J.0-r "ted AA'-*-^X_P^^A't_fiilc s_).

1973 f . ~1983~

, Impor t ed ?Dome s t i c , N o n - } j s

1

D o m e s t i c jNon— j -UUJJUX i t u i j j u i u t u b i u ,I\IUIJ — C o m m e r c i a l ' C o m m e r c i a l { JCommerc ia l jCommor- ; t ;

j j j j c i a l j ^

Bangladesh * 17.5 56.2

India 28.0 70.2

26.3

1.8

27.1

37.8

50 22.9

56.3 5.9

Nepal 1.5 74.9 3.9 1.8 94 4.2

Pakistan 34.5 47.8 18.1 44.4 31.8 23.2

Srilanka 5.3 56.8 37.9 5.0 67.8 22.4

Source: U1TD? and E3CAP Paper on Structural Change and Energy Policy, Pago 31, May, 1987.

* The share between commercial and non-commercial energy .shown in the table differs from that of BEPP, Planning Commission Govt, of Bangladesh, August, 1987.

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:

Tab

led

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Table-10

Cojmiercial Energy . I n t e n s i t y and Oil I n t e n s i t y in a few Selectod Countr ies , for the Year 1983 using Index of 1973 = 100

Country . {Cosimeicial Energy | Oil I n t e n s i t y

Bangladesh 103.5 89.2

India 116.3 111.0

Nopal 127.0 143.6

Pakistan 124.5 119.6

Srilank:- 80.8 119.2

Thailand 81.5 69.7

Korea Rep. 95.6 90.6

J.,pan 71.1 57.7

U.K. 75.2 58.6

U.S.A. 82.1 74.0

Source: UIDP/ESCAP - Structural Change and Energy Policy, ?aae-33. May, 1987.

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B r i e f B i o - d a t a of R a f i d u l I s l am Khan J o i n t Chief , P l a n n i n g Commission.

Name : R a f i a u l I s l am Khan

Date of B i r t h : 22nd J a n u a r y , 1941 .

P l ace of B i r t h : Manikganj , Bang ladesh

E d u c a t i o n a l Q u a l i f i c a t i o n s : (a) M.Sc. i n Geology i n 1963 from U n i v e r s i t y of Dhaka.

(b) M.Sc. i n Hydrogeology i n 1968, U n i v e r s i t y of London, U.K.

P r o f e s s i o n a l C a r e e r :

1963-1965 - Served G e o l o g i c a l Survey of P a k i s t a n ,

Q u e t t a , as A s s t t . G e o p h y s i c i s t and

conducted v a r i o u s g e o p h y s i c a l i n v e s t i ­

g a t i o n s i n d i f f e r e n t p a r t s of t he then

P a k i s t a n .

1965-1977 - Served Bangladesh Atomic Engergy Commission

as S c i e n t i f i c O f f i c e r / S e n i o r S c i e n t i f i c

O f f i c e r and c a r r i e d out r e s e a r c h e s on t h e

a p p l i c a t i o n s of n u c l e a r t e c h n i q u e s f o r

s o l v i n g h y d r o l o g i c a l / h y d r o g e o l o g i c a l

problems of B a n g l a d e s h .

1 9 7 8 - t o d a t e - S e r v i n g P l a n n i n g Commission, Government of

Bang ladesh as J o i n t Chie f s i n c e J a n u a r y 1978.

Engaged i n Sc ience and Technology P l a n n i n g

d u r i n g 1978-83, and Energy ( O i l , Gas andt

M i n e r a l Resources a s w e l l a s New and Renewable

Energy) P l a n n i n g d u r i n g 1983-88 f o r t h e s o c i o ­

economic development of t h e coun t ry* S e r v i n g

a l s o a s D i r e c t o r of a p r o j e c t which p repa red

Energy Mas te r P l a n ( 1988-2000) f o r B a n g l a d e s h .

C o n f e r e n c e / s e m i n a r a t t e n d e d .

P a r t i c i p a t e d i n many n a t i o n a l and i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o n f e r e n c e / seminar /workshop i n U.K. , S u i t z e r l a n d , Canada, I n d i a , T h a i l a n d , New Zea land e t c . on Energy P l a n n i n g & management and Sc i ence and Technology Development .

P u b l i c a t i o n s

have about 15 r e s e a r c h and o t h e r p u b l i c a t i o n s on Geology, wa te r r e s o u r c e s , energy development e t c .

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REFERENCES

1. United Nations, New York

2. 2

3. World Bank, Washington B.C.

5. UNDP and ESCAP

7. 6. CHOGRM-,. Commonwealth Regional Consultative Group on Energy

10. Plann'ng Commission Govt, of Bangladesh,

11. "

12. "

13.

A. Minist .j of P e t r o l e u m & Mine::al Resources Govt, of Bangladesh

15. Science. & Technology D i v i s i o n , Govt, of Bangladesh.

16. Khan, R . I .

>, Hossain,M. Mosharraf

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