Energy Environment Economics

By Dr. Faisal Tajir 1

When and Where do you think lies the milestone when the ever more affordable alternative energy sources will be more affordable than the ever more expensive fossil fuels.Wake up to be advised that such a day was folded into history while you were seeking profit elsewhere.

Spending Energy is

Fun.Spend it!

Allah does not punish you for a crime you have not committed.

Stop torturing yourself in the dark.Stop burning your money.

ENERGY RESCUE




Energysources and economics


Seminar Objectives

• Appreciate current state of the energy market in Pakistan.

• Pointing to more cost effective sources of energy in the market.

• Identify upcoming technologies and opportunities.

• Discuss various energy sources separately.• Identifying responsibilities of the consumer.



Prevalent Pattern

• 86.2% from Fossil Fuels that are only to get more and more expensive

• Electric supply (grid) offering an ever decreasing uptime

• $6.7billion of foreign exchange being lost in importing oil – each year

• Strategic dependency on imported fuel and shipping lanes

• The psychological impact of knowing one is damaging the environment for his/her children


Global Fossil Fuel Cost Increase in six years




19711972

19731974

19751976

19771978

19791980

19811982

19831984

19851986

19871988

19891990

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

0

1,000,000,000

2,000,000,000

3,000,000,000

4,000,000,000

5,000,000,000

6,000,000,000

7,000,000,000

8,000,000,000

Consequences

• Decreasing Demand Growth Rate!!!









Action






Reaction



Can Things Really Be This Bad?

Have We Checked Everything?












No.Something Better.

Much, Much Better.



International Cost

Cents/kWhOur QuotePaisa/kWh

Water Required? Water Offered? Local Effect Global Effect Grid

Dependency

PV 10 No No - Heating No

Lens 5 93 Yes Desalination - Heating No

Tower 2 160 No No - Heating Little

Kite 0.4 No No - Heating Yes

Ocean Current ? - No - Cooling Yes

Ocean Thermal 11 - Yes Cooling Heating Yes

Geo Thermal 3 Yes Desalination Heating Cooling Yes

Bio Mass 5 Yes Desalination Heating ? No

Mist 32 Yes No Cooling Heating Little

RBP 138 Yes No Cooling Heating No

Nuclear 5.5 Optional Desalination Heating Heating Yes


PV Len

s

Tower Kite

Ocean Th

ermal

Geo Th

ermal

Bio Mass

Mist

RBP

Nuclear

Commercial

Industrial

Minimum Resi

dential

Maxim

um Residen

tial0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,00085

0

425

170

34

933

255

425 46

8

1,90

0

1,10

0

600

1,30

0

93

160

32

138

Paisa/kWh

Our Best CompetitorsOur Quote



Worried about the Environment?


Global Effect Heat Cool

Warm Areas:Local effect = cooling

1. Mist2. RBP

3. OTEC

1. Artificial Rain2. Brackish Groundwater:

Permanganate Cycle

No local effect1. Wind2. Wave 3. Hydro4. Solar

1. Ocean Current

Cool Areas:Local effect = heating

1. Artificial Rain2. Water Cooled Thermal /

Nuclear power stations 3. Exothermic Release of

other greenhouse gases

1. Geothermal


SHOPPING!It is ALL a matter of



Appreciating your requirement

• 1W=8.766kWh/yr.• Your electricity bill lets you know how much

money you pay for how many kWhs.• Your demand fluctuates, you can calculate your

maximum possible demand by summing the power rating on all appliances.

• Before arranging for your electricity, you want to eliminate pointless wastages such as loose connections and magnet attracting wiring.


Typical Diurnal Variation in a Household’s Consumption


In the cooler localities...



Annual Variation


SOLAR OPTIONS






Geographical Availability
























Assembly Types

• Solar Panels– Electricity generation anywhere under the sun

• Sunlight Intensification– Detour the cost of the panels, if there is room for

the heliostat– Most cost effective means of heating

• Hybrid Installations – typically harnessing wind AND solar energy



Solar 101

• At the smallest level, you would rather buy solar cells rather than panels. This substantially reduces cost and gives you options such as making flexible panels: upon your clothes.

• Instead of crying about there being no sunlight at night, consider how comfortable life would be if your mobile phone recharged automatically. Appreciate limitations, yet search for applications.




Solar 102

• Solar water heaters are already quite economically available in Pakistan and elsewhere. Don’t try to compete with the economies of scale of mass production – just buy the complete product!

• If your choice of electricity for your premises is solar.– Double and triple check the geographical distribution of

solar energy.– Hire an engineer for the acrylic Fresnel lens and heliostat

rather than bringing in truck loads of panels.



Liquid water / solution (at pressure)

Steam / with any dust – driving any turbine

DC electricity

Steam at pressure pretty good at

cooking!

If this lens has to get large, it also has to be an un-oriented wind

turbine!















Solar 103

• Larger installations should be hybrid – harnessing Solar AND Wind/Mist.

• Automate tasks such as filling your rooftop water tank to happen when the sun is at work.

• The high temperatures that you can achieve at the focus of the lens mean that you can set up a cottage industry – for example extracting oxidized aluminum from soil.

• This is a global revolution. Even if you can’t save yourself, someone else will!




By Dr. Faisal Tajir 104Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

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Average Sunlight in Karachi: hours per day: source BBC weather


Solar 104

• Let’s assume you consume 2000kWhs (ie units) of electricity a month, and you install a 2400W solar electricity supply on your roof.

• In Karachi you will save an average of 596 kWhs (units) on your electricity bill.

• Your solar electricity supply cost you Rs.48,000/- (plus human resource)


Solar 105

• You saved Rs. 7748/ a month in your electricity bill: 16.14%/month.

• Ask your bank what it would have given you on Rs. 48,000/-

• Should all consumers reduce their demand by 29.8% the country will have excess electricity ‐and no load shedding.

• Excess supply will force prices down


WIND OPTIONS






Geographical Availability








Recent Improvements

• More wind at higher altitudes, modern wind turbines are kites rather than towers.

• An Aziz Hussein in Township Lahore developed turbine blades optimized for all wind speeds.

• A funnel type structure around the turbine can adjust the wind speed across the blades to give a consistent generation.

• NEPRA has taken over the “risk factor” of the wind energy industry.



Wind Speed Control

Ability to increase and decrease the radius of the funnel kind structure means ability to increase / decrease wind speed across the turbine!


Shape Changing

TurbinesFrom Aziz Hussein

Township Lahore







Kites

• KiteGen has begun selling around 20MW onto the Italian grid.

• Dozens of other teams elsewhere reaching for the energy from the sky.

• Electricity has become more affordable.• Electricity has become relatively more affordable.• This is the essence of this address: advise all

sleeping beauties of this stud that is yawning in their vicinity.







The American attempt


Pakistani kites are exclusively being developed as missile silos and for other military applications

As we have better energy sources


OCEAN CURRENT


Geographical Distribution

• Kites, only heavier, tapping continuous or tidal currents.

• Even more affordable than wind energy.


OCEAN THERMAL




Interesting Aspects

• Carnot cycle between ocean surface and ocean bed.

• Cycles secondary product – distilled water, cooling / air conditioning.

• Most aggressive air conditioning technology known. Cool largest coastal city, while generating both electricity AND fresh water.



Temperature Difference between surface and Ocean bed


GEO THERMAL




Aspects

• Requires water (fresh, dirty, brackish, or sea) as raw material.

• Carnot cycle between earth’s surface and underlying hot crust.

• By-product steam/hot water/distilled water.• Very cost effective and environment friendly

source of energy and fresh water.• The default climate control tool when you want

to warm up a locality.


Are You Ready For The Max?



MIST



Introduction

• Achieve temperature difference by spraying mist in air.

• Run a Carnot cycle between this temperature difference.

• Hybridize with wind energy.• Use directly to cool / pre-cool.


Mist

Low Pressure RegionTurbines Fans

Dynamo

Mist Energy Schematic



Suggested Prototype (for Karachi)

• 5gpm / 150 psi mist / average net 14.475kW• Carnot efficiency and Karachi average weather

conditions (from BBC weather) used for calculations.• Minimum generation 3.89kW at midnight to 0600

hrs in August.• Maximum generation 30.4kW at 1200 hrs to 1800

hrs in December.• Cooling: a consistent 712kW, or a 203 ton AC.• Consumes water: 316g/s.


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35

Power Output

0 to 66 to 1212 to 1818 to 24kW



Remaining Specifications

• Radius 4.76m. Length 15m.• Estimated cost, Rs. 300,000/- (~Rs. 20/W or

Rs.0.32/kWh) plus human resource• Doesn’t get better than this…• Energy Consuming Air Conditioners (203 ton) cost

way more.• Compare with our grid’s distribution cost of Rs

0.50/kWh• Taps Mist AND Wind Energy.


/ WIND HYBRIDMIST / SOLAR


Minimizing storage in a grid free small enterprise

• Mist Turbine peak production comes with an approximately π/2 phase lag as compared to Solar.

• Distributing your investment in Solar/Wind and Mist/Wind you should need only 6 hours of storage.

By Dr. Faisal Tajir 1610 to 6 6 to 12 12 to 18 18 to 24

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Daily Variation

Rs. 300,000 Mist/Wind TurbineRs. 300,000 Solar Electric SupplySum

kW


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10

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30

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40

Annual Variation

MistSolarTotal

kW


ARTIFICIAL RAIN



Recent Developments

• A certain industrial process produces reduced silica: as a waste product, with a grain structure that leaves it as good as a flare: only that this burned silicon then flies up to bring down clouds!

• Rain can be started but not stopped: threat of floods, use will remain limited to hilly areas where there is no drainage issue.


Artificial Rain

• Technology not economically advisable in the absence of over head clouds or in the presence of strong winds.

• Considered the strongest climate control technology: drop the clouds every sunset and you will cool down your locality, drop them only at dawn and you will heat up your vicinity. The more cloud cover you have, the more you control your climate.


Reduced Boiling PointAs a means of tapping evaporation


Concept

• Reduce the pressure above water, it will boil at a much lower temperature.

• The water vapor introduced by the boiling can leave the system via a filter: that only allows monatomic molecules to pass through.


Valve to fill water and remove air

Monatomic tensile membranes to let out

the vapor. Argon in air (10mbar) leaks in

from here.

The pressure above this water is greatly reduced. It boils at a

much reduced temperature: often

lower than the ambient

temperature

Instead of utilizing the low temperature of the water,

we can have the vapor passing across turbines,

giving mechanical energy.


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45

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Average Vapor Pressure in Karachi (mbar)

0 to 66 to 1212 to 1818 to 24


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40

Reduced Boiling Point Karachi Celsius

0 to 66 to 1212 to 1818 to 24


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Ambient Temperature Karachi Celsius

AverageMinMax

By Dr. Faisal Tajir 173Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec0

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30 Maintainable Room Temperature in Karachi by RBP: Celsius


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MinAverageMaxRBP

oC


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Ambient Temperature minus RBP: Celsius

0 to 66 to 1212 to 1818 to 24


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Pressure difference available: if temperature drop is compromised (mbar)

0 to 66 to 1212 to 1818 to 24


Best Solution (Electricity / Air Conditioning) for the Apartment.

• For the entire year, can provide electricity to an apartment that may not harness solar or wind energy: nor has the space for a Mist Turbine. 18 hrs of storage will however be required.

• Does not eliminate but does reduce air conditioning requirements: 34C down to 27C.

• Unlike Mist Energy, does not inflict any too low temperatures in the winters. This superiority could prove decisive.


AIR CONDITIONING


Air Conditioning as an Energy Source!

• Ambient Temperature changes diurnally.• Insulation means that our buildings tend to

maintain the average inside them.• This means that every day we may run a

Carnot cycle between the air in the room and outside: while improving conditions in the room!


0

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Monthly Average Temperatures for Karachi as per BBC weather

AverageMinMax

oC



• In the winter, we can run such a cycle in the day, generating a small amount of electricity, and heating up our cold dwelling.

• In the summer, we can run such a cycle every night, generating a small amount of electricity, and beating the heat in our rooms.



• The amount of energy from such an installation is going to be small, yet hybridization with other energy sources always results in the most cost effective air conditioning AND lower cost for one’s electricity.


BREEDER REACTORS






When the Sun is Not Enough• Enormous growth potential of this family of

technologies needs to be appreciated.• It maintains a monopoly at submarines.• We cannot afford to suffice on fission based

detonation.• We cannot afford to trust the government that failed

in Thar with such a task.• The private technocrat will have to come forward,

develop: and then deploy the design and technology.


International Cost

Cents/kWhOur QuotePaisa/kWh

Water Required? Water Offered? Local Effect Global Effect Grid

Dependency

PV 10 No No - Heating No

Lens 5 93 Yes Desalination - Heating No

Tower 2 160 No No - Heating Little

Kite 0.4 No No - Heating Yes

Ocean Current ? - No - Cooling Yes

Ocean Thermal 11 - Yes Cooling Heating Yes

Geo Thermal 3 Yes Desalination Heating Cooling Yes

Bio Mass 5 Yes Desalination Heating ? No

Mist 32 Yes No Cooling Heating Little

RBP 138 Yes No Cooling Heating No

Nuclear 5.5 Optional Desalination Heating Heating Yes


PV Len

s

Tower Kite

Ocean Th

ermal

Geo Th

ermal

Bio Mass

Mist

RBP

Nuclear

Commercial

Industrial

Minimum Resi

dential

Maxim

um Residen

tial0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,00085

0

425

170

34

933

255

425 46

8

1,90

0

1,10

0

600

1,30

0

93

160

32

138

Paisa/kWh

Our Best CompetitorsOur Quote


ClimateChange and Control


Climate Chronology

• The well established ice ages and interglacials offer a horrific tale of our planets climate.


Global Warming

• Scientists the world over are advising that it is already too late to bring down carbon emissions etc and that the planet is going to go on warming up for the next 500 years even if carbon emissions immediately drop to zero.

• Receding glaciers are now accepted as part of everyday life.


The threat of another Ice Age

• An increasing number of scientists believe that this planet is not capable of housing the kind of temperatures that are being extrapolated and that this excess heat will be released in a big storm sending the planet into its next Ice Age.

• This theory is a bit new, and hence requires some degree of discussion.


The Role of Water

• Global warming will indeed result in more water (vapor) in the atmosphere.

• H2O is our planets primary greenhouse gas.

• The diffusivity (ability to mix / dissolve) of H2O falls exponentially with temperature.

• The uneven heat capacity and absorption spectrum of the atmosphere translates to active weather.

• Stronger winds will mean more dust eroding and being blown up into the atmosphere.


The Role of Wind

• More dust in the atmosphere will reduce the amount of sunlight reaching the surface.

• Recall that this variation (water’s diffusivity vs temperature) is exponential.

• The dust in the atmosphere suddenly takes over, the temperature of the atmosphere falls for a global rain storm to start.

• With the vapor out of the atmosphere before the dust, an ice age starts.


What we know

• We know that shorter wavelengths are getting through, as the ozone layer recedes.

• We know that sunlight in general is decreasing because of more dust in the atmosphere.

• We know that the planet is heating up, yet the higher the temperature the more unstable it is.

• The temperature that is stable is what we call an ice age.


Summary

• Temperature Increase– Vapor Pressure Increase• Temperature Increase

– Diffusivity Decrease• Weather / Wind Activity Increase• Dust Increase• Temperature Reduction• Precipitation• Vapor Pressure Collapse (Before Dust Decrease)• Temperature Collapse (Very Stable Climate)


WE TAKE CHARGE OF THE CLIMATESo what do we do?


Climate Control

• We know very well already that a list of energy sources will alter the climate in one way or another.

• By air conditioning our cities and our plantations, we prepare for any major climatic disaster as well.


Global Effect Heat Cool

Warm Areas:Local effect = cooling

1. Mist2. RBP

3. OTEC

1. Artificial Rain2. Brackish Groundwater:

Permanganate Cycle

No local effect1. Wind2. Wave 3. Hydro4. Solar

1. Ocean Current

Cool Areas:Local effect = heating

1. Artificial Rain2. Water Cooled Thermal /

Nuclear power stations 3. Exothermic Release of

other greenhouse gases

1. Geothermal


Conclusion

• Mist for energy and Permanganate for water are indispensible. Both of these will cool the locality.

• Of the alternatives, solar (lens) and artificial rain are the cost effective and grid free options.

• Once artificial rain is deployed (in conjunction with Mist), the only remaining environmental issue is the ozone layer.


GOVERNMENT


Government Level Recommendations

• Ocean bed water to air condition coastal cities: fresh water and electricity as by products.

• Geo Thermal Power Stations in permafrost areas: melt the glaciers and permafrost.

• Mist and Rain also as climate control tools: electricity as by product.


Government Level Recommendations

• Hydroelectric dams controlling the floods and cashing in on the increased rains.

• Kites for military, law enforcement, and communication.

• Waste to Energy plants.• Breeder Reactors in cooler areas.• When and if even more energy is required:

raise more kites.


BUSINESS


To the Investor

• Intensified sunlight is a distinct form of energy, like heat and electricity, that is often best used directly. Do NOT miss out on…

• Pakistan can best generate around 1.5-2TW of Mist/Wind Energy. Solar will determine the price of electricity in our foreseeable future: 160TW capacity.

• Do not miss out on the cooling from OTEC and Mist or the heating from Solar and GeoThermal.


CITIZEN


To the Citizen

• Ambient heat and dirty / saline water are not things to complain about.

• No one not consuming solar energy is in any position to complain about load shedding or the economy.

• China is consuming ~360GW and the USA ~30TW: you are consuming around 20GW: have to consume >160TW, you have a lot of work to do: stop checking out the girls!


Know thy Enemy


Know thy Enemy

• Pakistan maintains the ability to sterilize India while taking sustainable damage. Please advise if you have problems with this claim.

• Pakistan also maintains the ability to sterilize the United States, while being sterilized in response. Please advise if you have problems with this claim.

• The ease with which a government employee may be tipped in Pakistan remains the enemies weapon of choice: ask NADRA about CNIC# 17201-1557832-9.



Know thy Enemy

• NADRA and our Police serve their objective of sabotaging our design and development projects. Each plays a critical role in neutralizing “the threat” from a Pakistani scientist.

• PEC / HEC serve to misguide you as to who is literate and who is not. Ask Dr. Fida Younas Khattak why Dr. Faisal Tajir walked out of GIKI: after four years: without any accreditation.

• AEDB / KESC / WAPDA try to convince you that every possible effort is being made. Ask AEDB when it was first advised about Mist Energy.


Short Course on Keeping Pakistan from its Energy

• Identify habitual scientists.

• Steal their CNICs.

• Tip NADRA into simply not listening when they ask for a copy.

• Tip the police

into going deaf when they complain.

• Tip any lawyers they hire.

• Send infantry in civil clothes to break up any prototypes: and beat up

whomever tried to make them.

• You find anyone guilty of prototyping, focus on his source of income and his habitat.


Short Course on Energizing Pakistan

• Go to one of the Jihad fronts: learn how to survive in the face of hostility.

• Prefer working on technologies that you know the developed

world will be little interested in.

• The enemy will isolate you: use it to give time to your mission.

• The enemy will sabotage your

resources: make your project even more economical.

• Hold on to your ego, nothing else.

• Because…



YOUIt is only

That needs electricity, energy, or Pakistan




Don’t Worry About Me

I am

PAKISTAN


Nuclear War

The kind of war Man is yet to fight


Aspects

• Overwhelming firepower.• Delivery and intercepting delivery vehicle: yet

what if the latter fails?• Built from money and technology.• Results into a “cold war”: each adversary

sabotaging the other’s technology and economy.


Pakistan

• Created by civilians.• For civilians.• Defended by civilians.• Ruled by civilians.• Run by civilians.• Full of civilians.• Civilian grows beard, becomes more of the

enemy’s nightmare than our nukes.


Fighting the Nuclear War

• Grow a beard.• Tell everyone “your most secret secrets”: – you know how to make a bomb (only won’t tell ‘cause

it’s classified)– You are on your way to Amrica: for establishing peace.

• Very strictly obey the law: so that the authorities don’t get a chance to interview / interrogate you.

• Send nonsense messages across the internet to whomever in Amrica!


Your Contribution

• You now have half a dozen CIA agents, at the other end of the planet, closely keeping their eyes on not a “terrorist”.

• You just added (substantially as well) to the cost of their war!

• You qualified as a mujahid in the eyes of Allah: by inflicting such a cost upon the enemy. Jazakallah Kher!




To the Citizen

• Appreciate how many jobs and business opportunities are to show up: choose your stride in time.


Permanent Losses of Pakistan

• Some technologies will deliver sufficient benefit to the developer even if used by an arch enemy.

• Some technologies will only be made available when and if anyone pays: first.

• Some technologies will only be shared with friends.• Some technologies will NOT be shared.• NADRA and the Police have cost Pakistan the

permanganate cycle. Someone else will have to develop it now, and until then: we will look upon brackish water as a problem!!!


Assessing These Proposals

• If you want the opinion of any HEC / PEC recognized really cool and learned chap on this document: do not forget to ask him for his proposals as well. After all, isn’t he the one who should have written this document in the first place?

• Consider the amount of money to be invested in each plan, and the returns that you are confident of. Is cooling Karachi’s air with 4oC water really going to be difficult?


Word of Caution!

• These sciences are evolving at high pace, and too many suppliers are offering obsolete technology. Make sure you conduct a survey thorough enough, yet rest assured that what you employ will be redundant before it starts serving you!

• Remember to ask how many kWhs are expected from the investment per year.


Dr. Faisal Tajir

Coming Seminars on:• Water: sources and

economics.• Space: how & why.• Terra-Farming: Earth,

Venus, and Mars.• Anti Strategic Delivery

Vehicles.• FTL SETI.

• Highest IQ Level of all SAARC and all OIC• Ph.D. Electronic

Engineering • Ph.D. Mechanical

Engineering• In excess of 300 inventions• CNIC# 17201-1557832-9

• +92-313-2088531• [email protected]