energy crisis in pakistan

Assignment: Energy crisis in Pakistan

ENERGY CRISIS IN PAKISTAN

In times of such technological advancement, energy has become the only standing lifeline for a nation to rely upon. Energy is deemed to be the right hand of any developing nation. A country at the centre stage of attention since the 9/11 attacks, Pakistan has had its share of great demise with regards to solving their energy crisis, a crisis that was born and bred soon after their partition from India in 1947.For Pakistan and for any other nation, energy is the fuel that powers that imperative economic engine. It is the only pushing force that allows the industrial and agricultural sector to move forward or at the same time, equally backwards.

Pakistan's energy sector constitutes mainly of oil, natural gas and Hydro/Nuclear power where the contribution is listed as 30.5% usage of oil, 47.5% natural gas and 10.9% of Hydro electricity, shown below.

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Pakistan's social sector has crumbled further and formed a crater deeper than ever only because their energy consumption per capita has decreased to an all time low. Many governments have come and gone by all promising to give the energy sector a new start, however to the unfortunate fate of the citizens of Pakistan, a formidable sketch to diminish the menace of the energy crisis has always been far away from reality. An electricity shortage is felt most by those who depend on electricity for their heating, cooking and water supply. In these

circumstances a sustained energy crisis may become a humanitarian crisis. The long power outages across the country, urban 8-12 hours and rural 12-20 hours a day has made it an issue of extreme volatility causing suffering in the daily life of Pakistani and putting Pakistan’s economic future in serious jeopardy . 

Currently, the government of Pakistan states optimistically that the energy crisis will end by the year 2010, something the citizens of Pakistan openly laugh about after the promise of getting rid of load shedding by the end of 2009 was a major failure of the government. The current scenario of the energy crisis in Pakistan faces about a shortfall of a whopping 5,500 MW (April 2010). To make things worse, the government of Pakistan's inability to deal with the energy crisis has forced many industries all across Pakistan to shut their business down due to the unavailability of electricity and natural gas. The problem doesn't end here, sadly it actually begins. The collapsing, if not already collapsed energy sector of Pakistan has drowned in its own circular debt of over Rs. 300 billion. The fingers mostly point at the Karachi Electrical Supply Corporation (KESC) and FATA who although have received subsidies by the government, have failed to pay what they owe. With a circular debt that is eventually hoarded and piled on top of the fragile government's head, oil companies consequently have not been paid and thus have stopped the transfer of oil supplies to the government. As almost as 3000 MW of electricity has thus been prevented to reach the homes of many. furthermore, Pakistan has big line losses which according to some experts account for 4000-5000mw ,the alternate energy helps cut line losses internationally accepted standards of 5-7% against Pakistan’s reported line losses exceeding 45 percent of total production, (independent observers put at 65%), which in turn forces per unit electricity prices increase to recover cost of lines losses and thefts.

Sources of energy can be classified into renewable and non-renewable energy.

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Pakistan’s energy mix consists of almost 90 % non-renewable energy sources. Developments of Renewable energy resources are not moving ahead beyond symposiums and conferences or in other crude words lip services. Pakistan's future as economic leader in the region is at stake if sustainable cheap energy resources are not developed on priority. We have to cut down our dependency on foreign oil, depleting natural gas resources because they coat a lot as well as contribute to the pollution thus resulting in global warming. Pakistan has great potential in renewable energy sources it just needs to be exploited without wasting time; we don’t have a century left to think we have only a few years till our current gas resources would be depleted.

NON-Renewable energy sources:

Natural Gas:- Shortage of gas and increasing price is creating fears for the futureDepleting gas reserves and interruptedSupply to the domestic, industrialConsumers and refuelling stations hasBecome a burning issue in Pakistan, asPakistan is now the largest CNG user inThe world. Gas is scarce and we are facing gas supply cuts due to a widening supply-demand gap recently due to the huge number of vehicles converted to CNG thus increasing the demand. The current gas production is at 4 billion cubic feet a day(BCFD), it is being apprehended that the crisis will worsen next year with the gas shortfall likely to almost double to more than two billion cubic feet a day (BCFD), despite liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports planned over the next few months.The gap between gas demand and supply stood at around one BCFDThis year and this would go up to 2.1 BCFD by next year. Going forward,the gas shortfalls would increase by more than 300% to 6.5 BCFD by 2020. A substitute for natural gas liquefied petroleum gas LPG is environment-friendly and an economical fossil fuel available in the country. It is mainly used by people living in remote areas of the country having no access to natural gas. Annual LPG consumption is 600,000 tonnes out of which 20% is met through imports. Total investment US $ 200 million has already been made to develop the LPG supply infrastructure.

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Repercussions:1. Sky rocketing price of electricity and gas would lead to massive inflation in the country. This price hike carries both direct and indirect implications for inflation. Transport, fuel and lighting have 14.6% weightage in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). However, the natural gas head has 2.04% representation in overall CPI basket. This means that every 1% increase in gas price would result in 2 bases points increase in CPI ceteris paribus. In the wake of escalating wrath of International Monetary Fund (IMF) 13.6% raise in power tariff is being enforced in staggering form. IMF has recently given the fourth tranche of $1.2 billion of its bailout package. World Bank (WB) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) are also annoyed for not increasing the power tariff by 6% from 2009. The government was reluctant to pass on the effect of raise to its lifeline and agri tube wells consumers.

2. Rapid increase in power and gas tariffs has raised cost of doing business manifold and a number of small and medium sized units areat the verge of closure. These units includehosiery, textile, weaving, and engineering. Business community wants the government to extend support to industries, especiallyin textile and value-added sector.

3. Acute shortage of gas andNon-availability of petrol andCompressed Natural Gas (CNG) has troubled the life of a common man too and they are compelled to stage protest by coming to streets and disrupting traffic. Currently 2700 CNG stations are operating with an investment of Over US$ 1 billion, serving 2 million vehicles in the country. CNG stations have registered their anger by going on strike against the twice-weekly closure of gas stations. This stance has not only aggravated the issue by raising the cost of commuting but also by hurting the flourishing businesses of pump owners. At the time CNG vehicles were introduced in the local market, it was argued that it is an environment friendly and cheap fuel. But the energy crunch is now forcing the government to discourage the use of CNG by making its price equivalent to petrol. The CNG-run transport has come to a halt, with serious consequences for the commuting public.

4. Gas load shedding and sporadic supply has multiplied the miseries of housewives and also children, who are unable to cook food and keep their houses warm. Low pressure and unscheduled outages have disturbed everyday life badly.

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Nothing is being done to prevent the collapse of energy and power sector. Projects to explore and import gas are being delayed because of various issues and constraints. There exists a sheer lack of competence and efficiency at the gas utilities compounded by the government’s lack of planning to augment supplies.According to ADB Pakistan’s natural gas Production is estimated to level off by 2011 and by 2030 more than 70% of domestic demand for natural gas will have to be met through imports. As per a report on the energy outlook 2030, the ADB implies that, to import natural gas several options were under consideration of Pakistan, including pipelines from Iran and Turkmenistan to supply gas and import of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar and Australia. But they are exorbitantly delayed due to law and order situation in the country. To overcome this fiasco each sector needs to play its due role by adopting measures to ensure sustainable supplies of gas countrywide. Generating renewable gas for fuelling vehicles by turning biogas produced in waste landfills into compressed gas should also be considered.It is heart rending to know that the present government has callously discarded a vital gas extraction project into cold storage in 2008. The reserves at Kunar Peshaki near Hyderabad could produce 280mcf of gas per day. These reserves could be vital to improve the supply position and bridge the present shortfall. There are known gas reserves at Kohlu exploration block also, spread over an area of 2500 square kilometres. These are projected to be about 22 trillion cubic feet (TCF), vis-à-vis Pakistan’s total current proven gas reserves of about 29 trillion cubic feet (TCF). Out of 22 TCF, 15.4 TCF is recoverable and their monetary value comes to $ 80 billion or Rs. 6,800 billion. This huge reserve can not be put on the back burner and needs to be explored immediately as it is sufficient to meet Pakistan’s energy requirements for several decades. It is pertinent to relate that the Kohlu block (block 2968-3) is located in Kohlu and Dera Bugti districts. There are geopolitical and security concerns for proceeding with the exploration work.

Pakistan’s energy requirements are increasing in geometrical ratio, and not only economic growth but political stability is directly linked with the availability of adequate energy resources. Although Pakistan is trying to discover new gas fields in its territories it would still need to import gas from other countries. Pakistan initiated discussions with Iran in 1985 for construction of a natural gas pipeline linking Karachi with the South Pars natural gas field. The agreement called “peace pipeline” was signed by the president of Iran and Pakistan in Turkey on June 4, 2009, after considerable delay and lengthy negotiations, on price formula, security guarantee and transit royalties. 

Iran has some 15.7 per cent of the world’s natural gas reserves, second only to Russia. The pipeline would run about 1,115 km in Iran, 705 km in Pakistan and 850 km in India, had it joined IPI. Total investment is estimated at $7.04 billion and may take 4-5 years for completion. 

Samuel Bodman, Energy Secretary under Bush administration conveyed US concerns: “If IPI is allowed to be formed in our judgment, this will contribute to the development of nuclear weapons by Iran’’. USA is trying to stop this project despite the fact that energy needs of Pakistan are desperate and immediate; the US ignoring this consideration has mounted strong pressure on Pakistan to abandon Iran pipeline accord and instead explore alternative sources, such as coal, wind or solar energy.  It has instead proposed gas line project with Tajikistan known as TAPI. TAPI is a 1680-km, 56-inch diameter gas pipeline starting from Dauletabad field in Turkmenistan to Fazilka at the Pakistan-India border, passing through Herat and Kandahar in Afghanistan and Multan in Pakistan. It is estimated that the pipeline will carry $3 to 5 trillion oil and natural gas from the Caspian Sea basin via Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Two oil refineries and four thermal power houses, with a 1,000 MW capacity will also be built for shipment of gas to other Asian markets.

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Pakistan government has already awarded the contract for laying the TAPI gas pipeline project to US-based International Oil Company (IOC). The four nation — Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India (TAPI) pipeline — project is part of the grand US design to set up a regional power grid stretching from Almaty to New Delhi. Central Asia with abundance of existing and potential oil gas and electricity sources can meet the growing demands of South. While the prospects for TAPI appear bright, the challenges of security situation in Afghanistan and the state of relations between India and Pakistan put a question mark on the completion of the project within stipulated time frame. The biggest advantage in this proposed pipe line is the linkage of Pakistan’s deep sea port Gwadar with these pipelines which can serve as an international terminal for export of oil and gas to other countries and Gwadar would serve as a gateway for the energy resources of the landlocked Central Asian States. This would in turn generate revenue in terms of royalty and Gwadar would soon become the economic hub of the region.

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Furnace oil: Pakistan’s exports and its all economic activities are dependent on uninterrupted energy supplies, for its energy requirements maximum share is still of furnace which is imported from Middle East countries. Rising prices will bring a wave of inflation. All predictions now failing and the oil prices are rising and now about to reach 100 $ level. Who knows that in market trading if even the customers are buying the oil on +100 $. The reason being given for this enormous rise is the US oil reserves are depleting and therefore customers are ready to purchase the oil at any price available. Already many textile mills closed down due to higher production costs which make it un economical. Further increase in oil prices will definitely bring more strain on existing working units. For 2009 as a whole, we have assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$59.00 per barrel (bbl). For 2010, we expect to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00/bbl in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond. Pakistan’s real GDP growth in 2009 is estimated by Business Monitor International at 2.0%, down from 4.1% in 2008. In 2010- 2014, average annual growth is put at 3.4%. Several state-controlled oil and gas companies are in the throes of privatisation and already work with international oil companies (IOCs) in the upstream segment. We foresee oil and gas liquids production of no more than 68,000b/d by 2014, with the country able to pump an estimated 80,000b/d in 2010. Consumption beyond 2009 is forecast to increase by up to 3.5% per annum to 2014, implying demand of 427,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be approximately 359,000b/d by 2014. Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting a decrease in Pakistan oil production of 33.33%, with crude volumes falling steadily to 50,000b/d in 2019. Oil consumption between 2009 and 2019 is set to increase by 33.06%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 495,000b/d by 2019

The import of oil increases the import bill and we have to spend billions of dollars each year. Oil is used in the production of electricity in thermal power plants which is quite expensive and world oil prices are forecasted to rise, this means electricity produced by oil is going to be more expensive, transport industry is still largely dependent on foreign oil, thus Pakistan has to reduce dependence on oil by introducing new inter city trains run by electricity to reduce oil consumption, now we have to look for the future and sustainable economic activity. Developments of Renewable energy resources are not moving ahead beyond symposiums and conferences or in other crude words lip services. Pakistan's future as economic leader in the region is at stake if sustainable cheap energy resources are not developed on priority. We have to cut down our dependency on foreign oil. COAL:-

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One must ponder and wonder over how a country that has the 7th largest coal reserves in the world has to face such devastating shortfalls of electricity. All around the world countries like America, the global superpower avails over 50% of its electricity from coal, China focuses on providing energy to its people by extracting over 75% of its energy from coal and even Pakistan's nemesis for over 62 years, India uses coal to supply 57% of its energy. It is with great shame and distraught that Pakistan doesn't use coal for even 10% for its energy purposes whereas it is hardly used for the production of electricity.The real shame that grinds Pakistan is that although they have the seventh largest coal reserves in the world they are still seen importing over 4 million tonnes on an annual basis.

To further ignite the fire in the hearts of the citizens of Pakistan, that 4 million tons of coal imported isn't even used for producing electricity, it is used by the cement industry

With a substantial amount of coal in various areas of Pakistan, the country doesn't need to rely on importing heavy amounts of oil from various countries, all it needs to do is explore and attain its benefit from the natural resources it has been gifted from. Pakistan spends millions of dollars annually over the purchase of oil from the global market, those millions of dollars it spends purchasing oil for the usage of electricity can be invested elsewhere like the devastating educational sector or even the infrastructure of Pakistan.

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Pakistan needs to realize that by not acting on their large reserves of coal; they are not only cutting their own legs but are faltering on a large basis. They need to form a proper strategy with the help of an international consensus that can provide the correct technology and feasibility that is needed to turn that coal into the much needed electricity, according to some estimations Pakistan can produce 100 years of electricity from Thar coal fields alone keeping in view the % yearly increase. Coal which is a raw material for the cement industry need to be provided from local sources which would cut down costs and save the much needed foreign exchange reserves spent on importing coal. We see a limited progress in alternate energy sector. But so far little efforts are being made to explore and use the coal reserves in Sindh. This is claimed that coal quality is inferior and having low BTU. This is a challenging task. Today technology and boilers are available that can burn any kind of coal. Therefore all possible measures should be adopted to utilize existing resources. The smaller size power plants near the coal mines which can get direct feed and connect to National Grid will be an ideal configuration.

Nuclear energy:- Pakistan has a small nuclear power program, with 425 MWe capacity, but plans to increase this substantially. Pakistan's nuclear weapons capabilities of has arisen independently of the civil nuclear fuel cycle, using indigenous uranium. Because Pakistan is outside the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, due to its weapons program, it is largely excluded from trade in nuclear plant or materials, which hinders its development of civil nuclear energy. In Pakistan, nuclear power makes a small contribution to total energy production and requirements, supplying only 2.34% of the country's electricity.  Total generating capacity is 20 GWe and in 2006, 98 billion kWh gross was produced, 37% of it from gas, 29% from oil. The Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) is responsible for all nuclear energy and research applications in the country. Its first nuclear power reactor is a small (125 MWe) Canadian pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) which started up in 1971 and which is under international safeguards - KANUPP near Karachi, which is operated at reduced power.The second unit is Chashma-1 in Punjab, a 325 MWe (300 MWe net) pressurised water reactor (PWR) supplied by China's CNNC under safeguards. It started up in May 2000 and is also known as CHASNUPP-1. Construction of its twin, Chashma-2, started in December 2005. It is reported to cost PKR 51.46 billion (US$ 860 million, with $350 million of this financed by China). A safeguards agreement with IAEA was signed in 2006 and grid connection is expected in 2011.

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Pakistan Nuclear Power Reactors 

Reactor TypeMWe net

Construction start

Commercial operation

Planned close

KarachiPHWR 125 1966 12/72

Chashma 1 PWR 300 1993 6/00

Chashma 2 PWR 300 2005 2011

Total425 operating 

Enriched fuel for the PWRs is imported from China.In 2005 an Energy Security Plan was adopted by the government, calling for a huge increase in generating capacity to more than 160,000 MWe by 2030. It includes plans for lifting nuclear capacity to 8800 MWe, 900 MWe of this by 2015 and a further 1500 MWe by 2020. Plans included four further Chinese reactors of 300 MWe each and seven of 1000 MWe, all PWR. There were tentative plans for China to build two 1000 MWe PWR units at Karachi as KANUPP 2 & 3, but China then in 2007 deferred development of its CNP-1000 type which is the only one able to be exported. Pakistan is now planning to build smaller units with higher local content.In June 2008 the government announced plans to build units 3 and 4 at Chashma, each 320 MWe and largely financed by China.  A further agreement for China's help with the project was signed in October 2008, and given prominence as a counter to the US-India agreement shortly preceding it.  Cost quoted then was US$ 1.7 billion, with a foreign loan component of $1.07 billion. Construction was expected to start in 2009. In March 2009 SNERDI announced that it was proceeding with design of Chasma 3 & 4, with China Zhongyuan Engineering as the general contractor.  An April 2009 report from the government said that it had approved the project at a cost of $2.37 billion, with $1.75 billion of this involving "a foreign exchange component".  In March 2010 Pakistan announced that it had agreed the terms for Chasma 3 & 4, whereby China would provide 82% of the total US$ 1.912 billion financing as three 20-year low-interest loans. The two 320 MWe units are to be completed in eight years.However, there remain some questions about China's supply of Chasma-3 & 4.  Contracts for units 1 & 2 were signed in 1990 and 2000, before 2004 when China joined the Nuclear Suppliers Group, which maintains an embargo on sales of nuclear equipment to Pakistan.

Renewable energy sources:

Hydel energy:-

Pakistan has a potential of 45,000 MW Hydro Power, whereas the existing Hydel capacity in operation is 6,550 MW. Existing total installed Hydel capacity 6550 MW (Ranges from 1990 MW to 6550 MW due to seasonal variations)

According to a report of Pakistan Power Infrastructure Board (PPIB), this figure was identified by the Board after having a detailed survey conducted to prepare a data of power potential in the country. Pakistan has already planned the construction of various small to medium sized Hydel Power Projects in various parts of the country and a number of these are in

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progress.Hydel resources are mostly concentrated in the northern mountainous regions of the country.

In the northern areas of Pakistan, the results of the hydrological surveys revealedthat there are numerous small streams and waterfalls with strong and violent flow having sufficient potential for electricity generation through micro-hydroelectric power plants.The recoverable potential in micro-hydropower (MHP) up to 100 kW, is roughly estimated to be 300 MW on perennial water falls in northern Pakistan .

AT 6% GROWTH RATE POWER SHORTAGE is LIKELY .IN PAST 20 YEARS HYDROPOWER SHARE REDUCED FROM 60% TO 30%.THERMAL POWER GENERATION BEING SEVERAL TIMES AS EXPENSIVE, THE ELECTRICITY TARIFF HAS SHOT UP PAKISTAN’S ECONOMICALLY VIABLE HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL IS ABOUT 45,000 MW

WAPDA is in favour of large dams and thinks that the delay of construction of large dams was the basic reason for the shortage of power. The issue is very controversial subject and it is not expected to resolve soon. Moreover the construction of the dam will take at least 10 years and if the situation persists our economy will then come to a stage where we would spend alot on producing electricity from thermal power plants. Te cheapest source of electricity is hydro produced one which in comparison to thermal energy is a lot cheaper, however the govt as yet to take vital steps to construct large as well as small hydro units. The Diamir-basha dam issue is one example of how slow our decision process can be, due to

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which costs have almost doubled. Furthermore, Kalabagh dam which according to experts is the most feasible dam in Pakistan has been scrapped despite years of research and planning.

Bio diesel:

Developing countries like Pakistan need continuous supply of cheap energy. It is common fear in today’s world that fossil fuels will be depleted soon. The cost of energy is increasing continuously and is expected to be at its peak by 2050. Many technologically advanced countries are successfully using renewable energy sources for their energy needs, however, they still believe in the importance of fossil fuel. In renewable energy field, Pakistan is using hydropower for energy needs successfully, whereas project regarding solar and wind energy is in progress. Biomass, a renewable energy source, is gaining interest in many researchers because it produces similar type of fuel extracted from crude oil. Energy from biomasses only depends upon the availability of cheap raw material.Biodiesel, which is produced by the reaction of vegetable oil and alcohol, can be used with same or with better performance in diesel engine. It is a clean fuel that causes less environment pollution as compared to petro diesel. High cost and non-continuous supply of vegetable oil is the main hurdle for its general acceptance. Many advanced countries have developed strategy for continuous supply of cheap price energy crops (source of biomass). Bio diesel is the only possible reciprocal to petro diesel or otherwise diesel engine will be useless after the depletion of crude oil.With the rising international fuel prices, Bio diesel is set to become much more popular as a fuel option in the farming and transportation industries. The Government plans to gradually introduce Bio diesel Fuel Blends with petroleum diesel so as to achieve a minimum share of 5% of Bio Fuels by volume to the total diesel consumption in the country by the year 2015. Bio diesel as an energy source has been discussed; this is indigenous diesel engine fuel and is beneficial for our environment, economy, and more importantly will increase the income of our farmers.

Unleashing the Power of Wind:

Another area with respect to renewable energy resources is the exploration of wind power. Pakistan has a potential to generate more than 50,000 MW from its 1046 KM coastline, whereas the estimated power potential of Pakistan’s wind corridors is about 135,000 MW. Several IPPs have completed their feasibility studies for 550 MW of wind power projects. Pakistan’s first ever wind power plant with a capacity of 50 MW has been commissioned earlier this year and additional projects with cumulative capacity of 1200 MW are currently being developed. Pakistan has to develop large scale wind farms to generate electricity for far flung areas as well as to supply the national grid. Pakistan should promote the development of wind turbines locally and thus it would prove cheaper rather than importing wind turbines.

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Shedding Light on Solar Energy

Pakistan receives high levels of solar radiation which is available at a rate of 1000 watts per square metre. Solar energy is being increasingly utilised for the electrification of villages, domestic appliances, parks etc. With the increase in the demand for remote power, solar energy based projects offer many business opportunities to the international suppliers and local vendors. Pakistan has huge potential to develop solar energy which it is blessed with, unfortunately this sector as not been developed according to the energy requirements. In far

distant areas solar energy can be of great use because supplying energy to those areas is costly therefore Pakistan’s 40% population still doesn’t have access to electricity. Recently solar energy as been successfully used for powering tube wells in farms, thus cutting down the cost of farming. Te dependence on natural gas for domestic purpose mainly for cooking

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and heating can be greatly reduced with the help of solar cookers and heaters. Solar energy is created trough solar panels which are imported and thus have a one time high cost, these products have to be produced locally to cut down prices and promote this renewable and abundant form of energy.

Geo thermal

Geothermal energy is the energy derived from the heat of the earth’s core. It is clean,abundant, and reliable. If properly developed, it can offer a renewable and sustainableenergy source. People have used geothermal resources in many ways, including healingand physical therapy, cooking, space heating, and other applications. In Tibet, which occupies more or less the same geological position in Himalayan mountain ranges as Pakistan, more than 600 surface indications of geothermal energy resources have been discovered with an estimated potential of 800,000 kilowatts, unfortunately Pakistan as yet to work on this source of renewable energy.

Energy strategy:-

The strategy should be to explore indigenous local resources. For example furnace oil plants are best suited in Karachi where the port and refinery facilities are available. Gas plants to be installed in Baluchistan, Sindh and Khyber-Pakhtunkwa near to existing gas fields. Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa should explore medium, small and micro size hydro projects. Sindh must use its Coal reserves. Wind turbines to be installed in coastal belt, and Punjab must explore bio-gas and city waste plants.

From US and Europe we should borrow and purchase the technology to manufacture various power plants in Pakistan. For example if we start building 1-3 KW micro hydro, wind or solar power plants in Pakistan sufficient to provide energy to one home we can sell to individual families direct at low instalments. The cost will be recovered in utility bills compensation.

For the furnace IPP and captive power plants should be allowed to import furnace oil duty free. Then existing laid up power plants will again become operational.

All efforts should be made that Iran Pakistan gas pipeline project is implemented soonest. Moreover, one additional pipe line for crude oil to be installed to reduce our dependence on sea route.

Pakistan is in need of energy very badly and urgently. Pakistan should look for nuclear energy possibilities. Pakistan is one of seven countries in the world who has an indigenous capability to operate the nuclear power plant for last forty years.

Pakistan should look all alternatives to increase its electrical energy production by 10,000 MW in two years. This is a very challenging and difficult task. But if it fails its target then all other indicators will go negative leaving behind a disastrous situation.

The World Bank has advised that besides improving supply efficiency, demand management, addition of new hydro and thermal power stations, Pakistan should expedite importing 1,000MW from Tajikistan and Kyrgyz Republic in the first phase and then increase such imports to 4,000MW in the second phase.

These imports, the World Bank believes, have two major advantages. First, the cost of supply from Sangtuda, Rogun, Talimardjan and Kambarata power stations in the CARs would range between 3-5 Rs per unit compared with existing average generation cost in Pakistan at 12 Rs per unit.

Pakistan is now entering into contracts with independent power producers (IPPs) for thermal power generation at a tariff as high as 22 Rs per unit.

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Second, the attractive feature of the imports form CARs is that Pakistan’s peak demand occurs in summer, when the Central Asian power systems have large surpluses from their hydroelectric generation stations. Categorical change in the pattern of energy consumption and change in lifestyles should be done. The current energy consumption trends in Pakistan are extremely inefficient, whether it be in the domestic, industrial, trade or commercial sectors. With minimal effort, well over ten per cent of national electricity can be saved by applying only the first level of energy conservation that is a change in attitude. It is simple, instant and effective and all it requires is a stop to using energy unnecessarily. Leaving lights and home appliances on even when they are not being used is a common practice in our society. Similarly, many businesses such as shops dealing in cloth and garments, jewellers, cosmetics, home appliances and electronics are usually extravagantly lit. It is commonly observed that shops that could do with two or three 40-watt tube lights to meet the desired level of luminance use as many as 15 to 20 tubes. Not only does this increase power consumption, it also generates heat and makes the environment uncomfortable. A further economy of 10-15 per cent can be achieved by introducing the second level of energy-conservation practices, especially in industry. Collectively, just through conservation, more than half of the electricity deficit can be met. However to do that, public education is essential. With the help of effective electronic and print media campaigns the government can quickly educate the masses. The second part of the solution is a change in lifestyles. It would begin with the acknowledgement that the country is facing a national disaster and every citizen has to pitch in to overcome it. The nation has to draw a clear line between necessities (lighting, fans, TVs, computers, etc) and luxuries (air conditioners, microwaves, etc). There is not enough electricity to meet both requirements. We will have to compromise on luxurious lifestyles in order to meet the necessities. Markets and commercial places can substantially reduce their power consumption by changing their working hours. An early start and early end to capitalize on daylight as much as possible should be recommended rather than having opening hours from afternoon until late at night. Air-conditioning, usually a sign of a luxurious lifestyle, needs to be dropped. Bearing in mind that a typical domestic AC consumes far more electricity in one hour than a fan does over 24 hours, air conditioning should not be allowed except for sensitive applications such as hospitals and research centres. The choice is between using air conditioners for a few hours and then doing without electricity in peak summer months or avoiding air conditioners and other luxury gadgets but having round-the-clock electricity available to meet fundamental needs. Any such policy should be made at the highest level and its implementation should also begin there because charity starts at home. The common man would only be convinced of the looming crisis when he sees the ruling elite practice what it preaches.The ruling class should lead by example in matters of power conservation. If it does so the common man will follow suit. It is time for the elite to take energy-saving initiatives like abandoning the use of central air conditioning, travelling by special flights and irrelevant use of official transport.

The situation demands an urgent decision, a decision which is vital for the safety, stability and survival of Pakistan. Energy is a key factor for the stability and prosperity of Pakistan. If our production units keep on shutting then unemployment will rise and hence street violence will rise.

This is the time to restructure our energy policy. In my opinion instead of many agencies one central ministry should look after the energy issues in Pakistan. This is utmost important that an environment should be created where the investments are made in energy sector. Recently Government is advocating a policy of promoting the investment in Private Sector. Although the response is favourable but the out come is very slow.

Now Government has to make a huge investment in energy sector. And the investment has to be in direct purchase of power plants, manufacturing main and auxiliary units. The objective should be utilization of diversified energy resources. It is imperative that renewable energy resources should be explored but still conventional thermal and coal fired power plants should be established.

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