Electricity Efficiency in Californias Future Mark D. Levine Sacramento, CA May 24, 2006.

Electricity Efficiency in Electricity Efficiency in California’s FutureCalifornia’s Future

Mark D. Levine

Sacramento, CA

May 24, 2006

Ancient HistoryAncient History

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CA Peak Power: Testimony by Goldstein and Rosenfeld CA Peak Power: Testimony by Goldstein and Rosenfeld Dec 1974, updated to show actual peak demand in 1985Dec 1974, updated to show actual peak demand in 1985

HistoryHistory

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Per Capita Electricity Sales (not including self-generation)(kWh/person)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

19

60

19

62

19

64

19

66

19

68

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

California

United States

Per Capita Electricity Sales Per Capita Electricity Sales (not including self-generation)(not including self-generation)

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California Electricity Demand 1980-2004California Electricity Demand 1980-2004

Average annual growth rate: 2.0%

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California Population 1980-2004California Population 1980-2004

Average annual growth rate: 1.8%

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Annual Spending on Electrical Energy Annual Spending on Electrical Energy Efficiency (1976-2002)Efficiency (1976-2002)

CEC Staff Report “Proposed Energy Savings Goals for Energy Efficiency Programs in California” (2003)

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Review of Energy Conservation Funding Review of Energy Conservation Funding and Savings Cycles Over the Last 27 Years and Savings Cycles Over the Last 27 Years

CEC (2005)

The FutureThe Future

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Energy Efficiency Program Effects Energy Efficiency Program Effects Reported in Western Utility Resource PlansReported in Western Utility Resource Plans

• The majority of energy-efficiency program activity is projected to occur in California and the Pacific Northwest

• Note: results are not normalized for utility size

Avi

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PG&

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SDG

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Sier

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c

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Ann

ual E

nerg

y Sa

ving

s (G

Wh) 2004-2008

2004-2013

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Impact ofImpact of EE programs in reducing utility load EE programs in reducing utility load growth (2004-2013)growth (2004-2013)

• Utilities’ forecasted load growth without energy efficiency ranges from 1.1% to 2.4% annually• The three CA utilities expect to reduce electricity growth to <0.5%/year (by >75% from base case expectations)

over coming 10 years!

Avi

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Paci

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PGE

PSE

PG&

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SCE

SDG

&E

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%A

nnua

l Ene

rgy

Load

Gro

wth

(%

)

T otal Energy Requirements

Adjusted Forecast (net of incremental program effects)

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Population Forecasts (2005-2050)Population Forecasts (2005-2050)

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Historical Spending on Electrical Energy Historical Spending on Electrical Energy Efficiency (1976-2002)Efficiency (1976-2002)

CEC Staff Report “Proposed Energy Savings Goals for Energy Efficiency Programs in California” (2003)

Projected Spending on Electrical Energy Projected Spending on Electrical Energy Efficiency (2006-2008)Efficiency (2006-2008)

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

750,000

800,000

2006 2007 2008

Program Years

Dramatic Increase in CA Utility Dramatic Increase in CA Utility DSM Program (2006-2008)DSM Program (2006-2008)

A power plant is a building!

67% of oil used in U.S. goes to vehicles (54% in 1976)

71% of electricity goes to buildings(60% in 1976)

Buildings elec is fastest growing element, 1976-2002: Multiple is 2.1

Spaghetti diagram for U.S., 2002

A larger fraction of electricity goes to buildings in rich countries

“Buildings Electricity” = 100% Commercial and Residential + 15% Industrial + 10% Agricultural.

Data provided by Paul Waide, graphics by Shoibal Chakravarty

All data are for 2002 except U.S. 1976 point

Buildings Electricity as a Fraction of Total Electricity: Dependence on GDP-PPP/capita

World

Non-OECD

OECD

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 10 20 30 40Thousands

GDP-PPP/capita (1995 US Dollars)

Bu

ild

ing

s E

lec

tric

ity

Us

e

World

Non-OECD

Africa

Latin America

Asia exc. China

China

Former SU

non-OECD Europe

Middle East

OECD

Mexico

Japan+Korea

USA+Canada

OECD Europe

Australia+New Zealand

USA (1976)

Weighted Regression Fit(R^2 = .666)

U.S.1976

U.S.2002

All data are for 2002 except U.S. 1976 point.Areas of points: proportional to populations.

BackupBackup

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Electricity Consumption per Capita Electricity Consumption per Capita (1960-2001)(1960-2001)

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

kWh

U.S.

California

Western U.S. (less CA)

Source: EIA, CEC

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Statewide Electricity Consumption per Statewide Electricity Consumption per Capita (1980-2016)Capita (1980-2016)

CEC Staff Final Report September 2005 CEC-400-2005-034-SF-ED2

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0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

year

Inte

nsi

ty (

tho

usa

nd

Btu

s p

er $

mea

sure

d in

yea

r 20

00 $

)

US down to 54% of 1973 intensity

California down to 46% of 1973 intensity

54%

46%

Figure 3

Energy Intensity – California and the Energy Intensity – California and the United StatesUnited States

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Statewide Natural Gas Consumption per Statewide Natural Gas Consumption per Capita (1980-2016)Capita (1980-2016)

CEC Staff Final Report September 2005 CEC-400-2005-034-SF-ED2