Eiar physical report

Making Ethiopian Agriculture Climate Resilient: Towards Networking and

Coordination to Mainstream Climate Change Adaptation into Food Security and Sustainable

Development

Annual Performance Report for the period June 2010 – May 2011

Submitted to: The Rockefeller Foundation

Agreement No.: 2010 CLI304

Submitted by: The Biometrics, GIS and Agro meteorology Research Process Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR)

Date of report submission: August 29, 2011

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….............1

2. Introduction ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….2

2.1 Project overview…….………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….2

2.2 Anticipated climate change impact on Ethiopian agriculture……………………………………………………………..2

2.3 Project vision……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..4

2.4 Project goal ……………………………………………………………………………………………………….………………………………4

2.5 Project objectives………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………4

3. Progresses: Major outputs and outcomes…………………………………………………………………………………………..4

3. 1 Project Ramp up………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………4

3.2 Project Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) Tool: The Logical Framework approach………………………5

3.2.1 Preamble to monitoring and evaluation………………………………………………………………………………………..5

3.2.2 Project outputs framing…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………6

3.3 Baseline data on partner institutions: power mapping with respect to CCA mainstreaming…………..17

3.4 Communication system and tools for the consortium …………………………………………………………………….17

3.5 Tools for CCA mainstreaming………………………………………………………………………………………………………….18

3.5.1 Project level Climate Change Adaptation Mainstreaming Tool…………………………………………………….18

3.5.2 Higher Learning Institute level entry point for mainstreaming CCA……………………………………………..18

3.5.3 Famer training center level entry point for mainstreaming CCA…………………………………………………..19

3.6 Capacity building trainings………………………………………………………………………………………………………………20

3.7 Documentation of current data handling process and national data use policy of NMA………………..20

3.8 Implementation of postgraduate study at Arba Minch University………………………………………………….21

3.9 Procuring and placing climate related physical facilities………………………………………………………………….22

3.10 Installing High Performance Computers (HPCs)……………………………………………………………………………22

3.11 Development and sharing vulnerability mapping with partners…………………………………………………..23

3.12 Sharing the impact analyses results on key crops with partners………………………………………………….23

3.13 Developing and sharing list of adaptation options with partners…………………………………………………23

3.13.1 Holding seminar with key stakeholders…………………………………………………………………………………….23

3.13.2 Participatory selection of crops and varieties……………………………………………………………………………25

3.13.3 Providing a dekadal weather forecast information to farmers and DAs……………………………………26

3.13.4 Information communication tool on seasonal climate prediction and weather forecasting….…27

4. Emerging opportunities………………………………………………………….……………………………………………………….27

5. Lessons learnt and key challenges……………………………………………………………………………………….………….28

6. Next Step…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….………….29

7. Annex……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..30

Annex 1: Number of focal persons by partner institution…………………………………………………………………..30

Annex 2. Terms of Reference (ToR) for focal personnel……………………………………………………………………..30

Annex 3: Structure of M.Sc. study in Climate Change and Development…………………………………………..32

Annex 4: Abstract of the paper entitled <The potential impacts of climate change - maize farming

system complex in Ethiopia: Towards retrofitting adaptation and mitigation options>…………………....33

Annex 5. Abstract of the paper entitled <Towards Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation into

Natural Resources Management Research: Key in Food Security Assurance and Sustainable

Development……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..34

Annex 6. Farm level adaptation responses in maize to the highly likely climate change in Ethiopia……35

Annex 7: Poster used for advertising the project ……………………………………………………………………………….36

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1. Executive Summary

Owing to its direct reliance on existing local natural resources (soil, water and climate), agriculture is an open roof business with high sensitivity to climate change that degrades those natural resources to a varying scope and magnitude. In acknowledging climate change projections of both increased temperatures along with rainfall alterations in volume and occurrence, climate change reports specific to Ethiopian are identified to adversely affect the country’s agriculture development plan. This EIAR-RF collaborative project is initiated in the broad context of the current Ethiopian ambitious development plan known as ‘Growth and Transformation Plan’ for 2010-2015. Very recently too, the country has planned for another jump-termed climate resilient green economy (CRGE) that works trough 2030. Being the first of its kind in Africa, this program is anticipated to ensure the country’s attainment of the middle income status by 2025, while at the same time leaving the legacy to the global clean development efforts through better environmental services. Through the implementation of the project to-date, a number of salient successes have been achieved from the perspective of the project objectives. With the project ramp up, the briefing of the State Minister of MoA was followed by a series of awareness raising workshops at key partner institutions (five research centers, four high schools, three universities, and eight farmer communities). A total of 822 male and 480 female were participated in the awareness raising workshops. Further a total of 63 key activities leading towards achieving the five cardinal objectives were embarked up on. Of these, the capacity building training of 58 researchers and academicians who are the project focal persons was remarkable. Further, about 36 development experts, decision makers and development agents have been imparted with the initial training particularly with respect to the community based adaptation (CBA) for the climate risk management. Currently, 12 development agents, 44 male and 4 female farmers are participating in the CBA based experiment. The project also supports institutionalization and accreditation of climate change courses at four model higher learning universities (Adama, Jimma, Hawassa and Arba Minch). The same also complements the ongoing coordination role of two climate concerned institutions; Environmental Protection Authority (EPA) - government agency that coordinates climate change issues at national level and Climate Change Forum-Ethiopia (CCF-E) - civic society organization that coordinates climate research and development nationwide. Both EPA and CCF-E play pivotal roles with respect to linking climate change research and development efforts into policy and practices. The project outputs have been framed in sequential ways to the purposes and the goal of the Rockefeller Foundation. In addition, it links to CAADP Pillar IV and MDGs which is now proposed to play a key financial architecture for effectiveness of the ongoing global support to the climate adaptation and mitigation efforts in Africa. To start with, the baseline data on partner institutions was conducted under the umbrella term ‘power mapping’ with respect to CCA mainstreaming, so that any change from the baseline could be the product of the project intervention. For this, effective communication tool has been recently put in place, i.e the website that makes the construction of agro climate dBase the centre stage, while at the same time ensuring the agro meteorological data and forecast service provision to the end users (researchers, farmers and investors). This also forms the best entry points to the much desired climate change adaptation (CCA) mainstreaming activities at various levels (project level, higher learning institution and farmers levels), More importantly, the postgraduate study at local university known as Arba Minch University has been launched through this project and currently four MSc students with background of meteorology are attending the courses with two years of formative period. The project team has also mapped the vulnerability and shared the result with partners through various forums; during which the possible adaptation options were drawn for research purpose. Collaborative on-farm experimentation is underway with eight FTCs with which climate early warning information is exchanged every 10 days (termed ‘dekadal’). For this, appropriate communication tool has been developed.

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2. Introduction

2.1 Project overview

The world today faces the biggest challenges of the 21st century viz., how to feed 9 billion people by 2050 in the face of climate change under the growing competition for natural resources. This challenge is even more crucial given that the world has not yet come close to achieving the MDGs of halving the number of people living in extreme poverty and hunger by 2015. Owing to its direct reliance on existing local natural resources (soil, water and climate), agriculture is the most sensitive of all sectors to climate change that degrades those natural resources to a varying scope and magnitude. Also, farmers engaged in subsistence agriculture are described as being at the greatest risk to climate change impacts due to: (i) lack of capacity to exert influence and respond to alterations in their local environment; (ii) dependence on small land holdings that make them unable to afford agricultural losses. These circumstances, common in Ethiopia, position subsistence farmers not only as those at the greatest risk to climate change, but those who have the lowest means available to adjust to environmental change.

Table 1: Truths about current and projected climate change scenario for Ethiopia

2.2 Anticipated climate change impact on Ethiopian agriculture

In acknowledging climate change projections of both increased temperatures along with rainfall alterations in volume and occurrence, climate change reports specific to Ethiopian agriculture are summarized (Table 1).

These comprehensive climate change impacts on Ethiopian agriculture are anticipated to be further exacerbated by the ongoing competing claims for resources between cropping and land degradation, particularly deforestation and farming on steep slopes. Confronting future climate change impacts in Ethiopia is therefore no longer an option that it requires new level of thinking and advanced technologies, for the society to come to terms with anticipated climate change. It is with this broad context that the EIAR, as one of the key government organs concerned with climate-agriculture has initiated this time-critical project with the financial support of The Rockefeller Foundation (RF). The objective of The RF is to ensure the ability of poor and vulnerable smallholder African farmers in a changing climate. The RF’s strategy includes assisting national agricultural research and development programs, testing interventions that could be implemented more extensively through Africa in general and in the wake of changing climate in particular. Developing the necessary scientific evidence and policy environment, as well as

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building institutional capacity to maintain, increase and improve African farmers own agricultural production, despite the changing climate also forms the central concern of RF. This EIAR-RF collaborative project is initiated in the broad context of the current Ethiopian ambitious development plan known as ‘Growth and Transformation Plan’ for 2010-2015. The first and cost effective entry point involves redefining of ongoing government funded research and development projects to expand them to include climate change issues than strategizing for a standalone climate proof development plans. Envisioning any new research and development projects to take climate as a variable will be the second entry point. The project also supports institutionalization and accreditation of climate change courses at four model higher learning universities (Adama, Jimma, Hawassa and Arba Minch). Farmers Training Centers (FTCs) are also key partners, where the output of the project (be as it may research finding or indigenous) will be verified before further scaling up. The project also supports and strengthens the ongoing coordination role of two climate concerned institutions; Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), a government agency that coordinates climate change issues at national level and Climate Change Forum-Ethiopia (CCF-E), a civic society organization. Both EPA and CCF-E will play pivotal roles with respect to linking climate change research and development efforts into policy and practices towards the establishment of the government institution that coordinates climate change efforts economy-wide.

Table 2: Summary impacts of climate change on Ethiopian agriculture

Highly likely impact Consequences of the likely impacts

Increased likelihood of Droughts and Floods

Drought and flood cycles are anticipated to occur at shorter intervals of every 3-5 years

Increased likelihood of crop damage and/or failure due to short and intense rainfall events

Heat buildup in crop plants, resulting in prematurity; thus increasing risk of reduction in yield quality and quantity

Heat buildup in animals, resulting in reduced feeding habit and low resource use efficiency; thus increasing risk of reduction in yield quality and quantity

Increased Risk of Soil Erosion and Emission of

Green House Gases (GHGs)

Higher temperatures increases evaporation and soil moisture loss, thus damage in soil structure and increasing risk of wind erosion

High intensity, short season duration rainfall events increases the likelihood of water erosion

Increased emission of green houses gases (CO2 at large) to the atmosphere due to deforestation, resulting in reduced agricultural system productivity

Shift in rainfall Pattern (onset and cessation

dates, amount, intensity, number of rainy days,

length of growing season and extent of dry spells)

Belg (short rain) decline; shift from bimodal to monomodal in central, southern and southeastern Ethiopia Shortened length of growing season for meher (long rain), mainly for long cycle ones

Extended dry spell during crop critical growth stages increases risk of crop yield reduction and crop failure

Decline in water availability

Reduced ground water recharge due to shortened duration of rainfall and decrease in levels of perennial streams

Overall limitation to irrigation (ground / surface supply) and yield potential

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2.3 Project vision

To witness the positive contribution of the EIAR-RF project towards Ethiopia’s desire to attain middle income status by 2025, through reducing the negative effects of climate change on agriculture and livelihoods.

2.4 Project goal

To strengthen climate change adaptation mainstreaming among climate-agriculture sectors through improved networking and the provision of adaptation advice for improved policy decisions and practices. The system will develop a methodological framework for mainstreaming and coordinating the network in climate change adaptation.

2.5 Project objectives

To form a consortium that ensures networking among climate and agriculture institutions for mainstreaming climate change adaptations;

To develop a standard methodological tool for monitoring progresses from mainstreaming of CCA and sustain the impact beyond the project life

To assess vulnerability (social, economic, environmental) and map impacts To create relevant climate risk adaptation policies and practices suited to effective

networking To develop institutional capacity for technology dissemination, uptake and impact pathways

to enhance climate change adaptations

3. Progresses: Major outputs and outcomes

3. 1 Project Ramp up

The project ramp up that formed an entry point to the CCA mainstreaming was conducted by visiting and debriefing of the project purposes and objectives to the partner institutions and higher officials, primarily the State Minister of MoA at his office. After the debriefing, the minister firstly has expressed his appreciation for such a broad based collaboration, as well its strong link with the country’s long aspired development plan and secondly, he gratefully acknowledged the chairmanship position offered to him.

The second visit was paid to the CCF-E, an umbrella civic organization that strives to bridge the fragmented climate related research and development projects at national level. It was agreed that all activities related to awareness raising on CCA mainstreaming, policy and strategy aspects would be addressed through the CCF-E. From the universities, an effective relationship was established with Arba Minch University, at which climate science courses are offered for degree award. The other key partner is the National Meteorology Agency (NMA); a power house not only for provision of seasonal forecasts, but also for knowledge in climate science. Currently a tripartite activity is underway among NMA-MoA and EIAR. The NMA, despite existing challenges has a fairly strong agrometeorological advisory service unit that can substantially contribute to the success of the project. Overall, about 42 focal personnel have been identified (annex 1) which was followed by trainings and drawing of terms of reverence (TOR) that brought all the focal personnel on board and with which communication and c0-working pursued (annex 2). This was then followed by a series of awareness raising workshops among partner institutions, including the preparatory and secondary schools (Table 3).

To close the loop of chain of partners, ten farmers training centers (FTCs) have been identified, for which the corresponding level of institutional capacity has been recorded to serve as a baseline for measuring changes after intervention.

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Table 3 : Summary of Awareness raising workshops conducted at different project partner institutions

No Institution Number of participants

Date Conducted

Male Female 1 Melkassa Research Center 200 70 Jan 3-7, 2011 2 Forestry Research Center 70 30 Feb 1-5, 2011 3 Debrezeit Research Center 95 55 Feb 28 –Mar 4,2011 4 Holeta Research Center 103 57 Apr 11-15, 2011 5 Kulumsa Research Center 74 26 May 23-28, 2011 6 Andenet Secondary School (Asela) 90 82 May 30-31,2011 7 Chilalo Terara Secondary School (Asela) 100 78 May 30-31,2011 8 Hawas Preparatory School (Adama) 50 50 June 1-2, 2011 9 St. Joseph Preparatory School (Adama) 40 32 June 1-2, 2011 Total 822 480

3.2 Project Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) Tool: The Logical Framework

approach

3.2.1 Preamble to monitoring and evaluation

Evidence is clear that Ethiopia urgently needs to find more comprehensive adaptation strategies to build new resilience, despite anticipated climate risks. This also points to the wake-up call to engage in trust building and forming a genuine partnership towards strong institutional capacity to sustain gains in CCA across partner institutions. This also needs mainstreaming of CCA into their core businesses. Thus, mainstreaming will require a shared understanding among policy makers-sector officials- agriculture professionals and local practitioners. The development of methodological framework/tool is to better understand the scope of the indicator variables and data collection that permits to sustain the new system beyond the project life. This also demands for examination of the current status and drawing of working conceptual framework within and among the participating institutions. This allows improving reliability of resulting information and statistics, while also ensuring the sustainability and a dynamic building on existing and new CCA activities in project partner institutions. At the end of the project period, adjustments (institutional, capacity building, frequency of data collection) and improvements in data services and exchange must be improved. A set of core indicators for monitoring the CCA mainstreaming even beyond the project life are given in Table 4 and 5. Among many others, logical framework (LFW) approach has been adopted to ensure effective and performance based M & E of the project outputs. Firstly, process monitoring refers to checking the progress of an intervention for timely adjustments of early mistakes or to capitalize on potential early gains, while process evaluation is a periodic reflection on direction, challenges, successes, implication for design and implementation of the physical activities and the financial performance. Secondly, ex-post evaluation (after project cycle ends) assesses the impact, effectiveness, efficiency, relevance and sustainability of an intervention. Indeed, the primary purpose of M&E tool in this project context is to facilitate improvement by focusing towards the explicitly valued directions; eg. what do we really want to achieve and how will we produce more of it?, as well as to contribute to summative evaluation through providing information about unexpected outputs concerning best case, expected and worst case scenario/stories from the project.

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This LFW tool is indeed, the result of a thorough review of the project document and discussion with stakeholders and project partners. The plan specifically draws on clear strategy (roadmap) and tactics that define and describe the expected level of outputs across the implementation process and periodic targets towards achievement of the impact. It defines the performance indicators, clearly showing the value of each monitoring indicator data collection, quality checking, analyses and reporting. The outputs are the same as those in the original project document and the indicators have been modified to make them more precise, adequate and valid.

• By whom?– Rockefeller

Foundation– Project Mgt Team – Principal

Investigator Need to have clearly defined roles and responsibilities for accountability

• How it is done?– Traveling at identified

growth stages – Periodical progress

review meetings– Field days– Informal/formal

feedback from farmers and partners

– Final workshop– Final Report

Monitoring the progress and attainment of:

AgreedActivities, Milestones, Outputs, Outcomes

Figure 1: Simplified schema of process monitoring and evaluation in the project

3.2.2 Project outputs framing

The project framework stitches the outputs in sequential ways to the purposes and the goal of the Rockefeller Foundation. In addition, it links to CAADP Pillar IV and MDGs (Table 1) which is now proposed to play a key financial architecture for effectiveness of the ongoing global support to the climate adaptation and mitigation efforts in Africa.

7

Table 4: Logical Framework of the project Narrative summary Objectively verifiable indicators Means of Verification Important assumptions

(external forcing) Goal of Rockefeller Foundation in the project context

Enhance sustainable growth and resilience to climate change

Purpose/Objective Ensure the ability of poor and vulnerable smallholder African farmers in a changing

climate.

Outputs

1. A Consortium that ensures networking for mainstreaming climate change adaptation (CCA)

1.1. Number of Temporary Focal Personnel reporting directly to the DG of EIAR

1.2. Number of office space set up/strengthened 1.3 Number of Climate Change Consultant recruited..Girma 1.4 Number of project staff recruited at identified

institutions 1.5 Project sensitization workshop and conference (for

research staff, national and international level) 1.6 Number of sensitized staff working for partner institutions 1.7 List of minimum facilities procured and placement

• Conceptual framework of the consortium

• Reports by Focal Persons at the DG Office and submitted to the Donor

• Workshop/seminar report

• Financial and physical progress reports

• Facilities placed in office

• Political goodwill continues to be supportive

• Financial expenditure system remains conducive

2. A standard framework/tool of monitoring progresses towards ensuring continuity /sustainability of networking and CCA impact through and beyond the project life

2.1 Direction/trend of government annual financial appropriation/investment for CCA in agriculture 2.2 Number of trained and high caliber climate researchers working on CCA 2.3 Number of attendant partner institutions to the CCA related global knowledge, methods and models (software) brokering and use in climate research system 2.4 Level of facilities (hardware) for using in climate research and development system in partner institutions 2.5 Award of certificate to graduated institution and research centers in mainstreaming CCA into their core

• Annual budget appropriation registry of MoFED for CCA

• Publications in reputed journals

• List of models acquired and updated with time

• Number of partners engaged in acquiring and updating the models

• Research Directory

• Updated Course Directory

• Smooth collaboration among partner institutions

• CCA in agriculture continue receiving policy-science-technology-academics development interface support

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businesses at the end of the project 2.6 Award of graduation certificate, marking the sustainability of the genuine partnership among partner institutions beyond the project life. 2.7 Number of government financed ongoing research projects re-examined to include CCA by core research processes 2.8 Annual number of new research projects involving CCA. 2.9 Number of MSc students graduated in CCA stream or department at Arba Minch university

3. Vulnerability (social, economic, environmental) and impacts maps....Prof. Mark Jury .

3.1. Number of reviewed global climate change model (GCMs) outputs.

3.2 Number of downscaling of selected GCMs outputs to specific localities.

3.3 Number of more representative model for Ethiopia’s future climate.

3.4 Number of CC vulnerability maps 3.5. Number of CC impact disaggregated maps 3.6 Number of improved adaptation options (existing

technologies and best practices) linked to pilot forecast product for decisions at identified communities.

3.7 Number of localized field testing at identified communities

3.8 Number of improved AEZs map of Ethiopia showing shifts in climate pattern Ethiopia

3.9 Number of generic CCA guideline/manual. 3.10 Number of researchers trained in and awarded certificates on climate modelling.

• Project progress reports

• Published manuals/guidelines on application of CCA and mitigation techniques/options

• Certificates and post graduates degrees

• List of adaptation options at identified institution

• Vulnerability maps at respective offices

• Impact maps at respective offices

• Interest in scientific evidence continued to build up

4. CCA policies and strategies suited to effective networking and coordination

4.1 Policy document for proper institutional setting in CCA 4.2 Number of national climate risk proof policy/strategy

documents 4.3 Number of climate data use policy document 4.4 Number of briefings/workshops for policy makers,

parliamentarians and top management bodies

• Document of governance structure of government institute that links environment and development in place.

• Climate risk management policy documents at each partner institution.

• Climate data available to users for rich analyses and information use in agricultural decisions

• Progress reports

• Government’s long standing interest and commitment in values of climate science in research and development

9

5. Institutional capacity for improved technology dissemination and uptake in place (research, extension, farming communities

5.1 Number of researchers trained in climate change adaptation related research proposal writing

5.2 Number of digitized, and updated data (ground and remotely sensed) for enriching climate database for effective data provision service

5.3 Frequency of pilot agriculture tailored forecast products provision for improved seasonal agricultural decisions at identified farming communities

5.4 Number of steps in CCA technology delivery at the farmers doorsteps by the National Extension System.

5.5 Number of DAs and target farming communities trained in climate change risk management

5.6 Number of universities at which climate change courses institutionalized and accredited.

5.7 Number of thesis projects engaging postgraduate students on CCA (MSc level) in identified universities

5.8 Number of improved area/yield assessment methods for crop monitoring and yield estimation

• Training Report

• Research Directory

• Recorded digitized climate data and database at NMA

• Extension Department Progress Report showing reduced discrepancy between MoARD and CSA data

• Effective technology and best practices communication pathway/flow document in NARS

• Number of students enrolled for the CCA course

• Graduates working in the partner institutions

• Joint Reports of MoA & CSA on crops yield and area accounting

• Value added chain approach honoured at all levels (research-policy-development-academics-communication scales

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Table 5: Performance Monitoring and Evaluation indicator table

Plan Detail Objectively verifiable indicators Baseline value

End of Project target

Annual targets

Overall Objective/Goal of Rockefeller Foundation

2010/11 2011/12 Responsibility

Enhance sustainable growth and resilience to climate change

Purpose/Objective Ensure the ability of poor and vulnerable smallholder African

farmers in a changing climate.

Expected Outputs of the project

1. A Consortium that ensures networking for mainstreaming climate change adaptation

1.1. Number of Focal Officer reporting directly to the project coordinating office (EIAR)

6 38 38 All partners

1.2. Number of office space set up/strengthened 6 38 38 All partners

1.3. Number of Climate Change Consultant recruited 0 1 - -

1.4 Project sensitization workshop (for partners, national and international level)

1 3 3 EIAR

1.5 Number of sensitized staff working for partner institutions 50 2000+ 2000+ EIAR

1.6 Number of project staff recruited at identified institutions 0 12 12 EIAR

1.7 List of minimum facilities procured and placement

0 15 20 5 All partners

2. A standard framework/tool of monitoring progresses towards ensuring mainstreaming of CCA on sustainable basis

2.1 Direction of government annual financial appropriation for CCA in agriculture (billion birr)

0.5 10 5 5 MoFED

2.2 Number of trained researchers/development workers in CCA 10 20 10 10 “”

2.3 Facilities (hardware) for using in climate research and development system

20 200 90 90 EIAR, NMA, Universities

2.4 Number of attendants of CCA related global knowledge, methods and models (software) by partners institution

0 5 3 2 All institutions

2.5 Certificate of graduation, marking the formation of genuine and sustainable partnerships among partner institutions in confronting challenges of climate change beyond the project period

0 12 12 EIAR

11

2.6 Certificate of graduation, marking the success in mainstreaming of CCA into core businesses of the research institutions and research centres at the end of the project period

1 36 - 36 “

2.7 Number of government financed ongoing research projects re-examined to include CCA by core research processes.

5 20+ 7+ 8+ EPA, NMA, NARS

2.8 Annual number of new research projects involving CCA. 1 31+ 10+ 20+ NARS, NMA, universities, high schools

2.9 Number of MSc students graduated in CCA stream at Arba Minch university.

0 6 - 6 EIAR, universities

3. Vulnerability (social, economic, environmental) and impacts maps

3.1 Number of reviewed global climate change model (GCMs) outputs

1 26 25 NMA,NARS, Universities, CCF-E

3.2. Number of CC vulnerability maps at national/regional scale 0 26 26 -, “”

3.3 Number of CC disaggregated impact maps at national/regional scale

0 3 1 2 ‘’

3.4 Number of downscaling of selected GCMs outputs to specific localities

0 26 26 - ‘’

3.5 Number of downscaled models more realistically representing Ethiopia’s future climate

0 3 3 - ‘’

3.6 Number of improved AEZs map of Ethiopia showing shifts in climate pattern over Ethiopia

0 2 2 2 NARS,NMA, CCF-E, MoARD, Universities

3.7 Number of improved adaptation options (crops/livestock, forestry ) piloted with forecast product for decisions at identified FTCs (farming communities)

0 10 - 10 NARS, NMA, Universities

3.8 Number of localized field testing at identified FTCs 0 10 - 10 NARS,NMA,

3.9 Number of generic CCA guideline/manual 0 1 - 1 NARS,NMA, CCF-E, MoA, Universities, high school

3.10 Number of researchers trained in and awarded certificates on climate modelling

13 73 30 30 NARS, NMA, Universities

4. Climate change adaptation policies and strategies suiting effective networking and coordination

4.1 Policy document for proper institutional setting in CCA developed

0 1 1 CCF-E, EPA, EIAR, NMA, MoA

4.2 Number of trainings/policy brief workshops to decision policy makers and parliamentarians

0 2 1 1

4.3 Number of National Climate risk (drought, flood, frost) management policy and strategy documents

0 1 - 1 “”

12

4.4 Number of climate data use policy and use right document 0 1 1 - NMA, EIAR, CCF-E, EPA, EPA

5. Institutional capacity for improved technology dissemination and uptake in place (research, extension, farming communities)

5.1 Number of researchers trained in climate change adaptation related research proposal writing

20 200 90 90 NARS, Universities, NMA

5.2 Number of ongoing government funded research projects expanded to include CCA

5 20+ 7+ 8+ NARS, Universities

5.3 Annual number of government funded new research projects targeting CCA.

1 31+ 10+ 20+ NARS, NMA, universities, high schools

5.4 Number of digitized, and updated national database for enriching climate database for effective data provision service

0 1 1 1 NMA

5.5 Frequency of pilot agriculture tailored forecast products provision for improved seasonal agricultural decisions at identified farming communities (10 FTCs)

0 8 4 4 NMA,NARS, Universities, MoA

5.6 Number of improved steps in CCA technology delivery at the farmers doorsteps by the National Extension System.

0 5 5 NMA,NARS, Universities, MoA

5.7 Number of DAs and target farming communities trained in climate change risk management

0 700 400 300 NMA,NARS, Universities, MoA

5.8 Number of universities at which climate change course institutionalized and accredited.

0 3 2 1 EIAR, Hawass, Jimma and Assela Universities

5.9 Number of thesis projects engaging postgraduate students on CCA (MSc level) at Arba Minch University.

0 6 - 6 EIAR

5.10 Number of improved area/yield assessment methods for crop monitoring and yield estimation

0 2 2 MoA, NARS, NMA, Universities

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Table 6: Activities: Plan of Action

Out

put

s

Activity Quantity 2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Jun-Aug

Sep-Nov Dec-Feb

Mar-May

Jun-Aug

Sep-Nov

Dec-Feb

Mar-May

Gen

eral

: E

ntr

y po

ints

to

imp

lem

enta

tion

(fir

st r

epo

rt)

Establish a detailed table for indicators and the respective data collections (including units of measure, frequency, scale etc) that are necessary to build the CCA mainstreaming indicators (list of variables by institution).

1 - - 1

Narrate the sources of CCA monitoring indicator data collection for each of the variables in each of the institutions (List of data sources) and reporting to the coordination office at the outset

1 - - 1

Narrate how the collected information is processed, analyzed and published 1 - - 1

Describe how frequent CCA monitoring indicator data are actually collected (where exist) at each institution

1 - - 1

Engage in CCA monitoring indicator data collection processes (field/lab measurements/reordering disaggregated and aggregated (No of reports from each partner institution)

6 - - 1 1 1 1 1 1

1.1 Establish a Consortium of partners (number of members) 12 11 - 1

1.2 Establish a multidisciplinary team of experts/Technical Task Force/Focal personnel (No of members)

25 25 - -

1.3 Draw a consortium conceptual framework 1 - 1

1.2 Office space setup (No of office/desk) 34 20 14

1.4 Conduct sensitization workshop 17 13 4

1.5 Release posters, brochures/flyers etc 5 1 - 1 - 1 1 1

1.6 Conduct press conference 3 1 1 1

1.7 Conduct national workshop 1 1

1.8 Conduct international workshop 1 1

1.9 Establish community of best practice (No of FTCs) 10 10

1.10 Advertize position and recruit CC consultant 1 1

1.11 Advertising positions project staff (No of persons) 12 12

1.12 Conduct a comprehensive review and mapping of partner institutions with respect to climate change adaptation (No of partners)

6 6

1.13 Develop communication systems/tools for consortium (No of communication tools) 3 2 1

1.14 Complete, updated monitoring and evaluation plan (No of plan document) 1 1

2.1 Pay visit to MoFED and brows websites and other secondary sources (No of visit) 2 1 1

14

2.2 Keep track/record of direction of government annual financial appropriation for CCA in agriculture (No of government institutions supported/from MoFED)—No of visit

8 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

2.3 Conduct training need assessment

2.4 Conduct series of training on identified areas (proposal writing, simulation

software—No of trainings 8 2 2 2 2

2.5 Procurement of facilities(hardware and software)—types 30 6 6 6 6 6

2.5 Undertake series of monitoring on frequency of global knowledge and models

obtained, updated and used by partners institutions (research, NMA, universities)—Frequency of monitoring

6 1 1 1 1 1 1

2.6 Undertake frequent (quarterly basis) monitoring and evaluation of all the partners on

the key success indicators 6 1 1 1 1 1 1

2.7 Conduct training in CCA related new research proposal writing (No of trainees) 360 20 50 80 80 80 50

2.8 Revisiting the ongoing research projects: federal or regional research institutes and

academics with a view to expanding to include CCA (No of revisited ongoing projects)

50 15 15 15 5

2.9 Making formal communication with Research Processes and revisiting the ongoing

research projects for sensitivity to climate change and making amendments 3 1 1 1

2.10.1 Participation in review processes and commenting for sensitivity of the new research

projects and making amendments with respect to CCA 3 1 1 1

2.10.2 Accessing the finalized new research proposals through Research Process Directors

for comments pertaining to CCA by climate personnel , as well as keep tracking 3 1 1 1

2.11.1 Communicating with officials at Arba Minch University on the launching of a new

MSc program in climate change adaptation 2 2

2.11.2 Reviewing the existing MSc curriculum on meteorology and climate change and designing a new curriculum for masters program in climate change together with experts from Arba Minch University

1 1

2.11.3 Identification of resource persons available locally and internationally for offering the

designed climate change courses 1 1

2.11.4 Accreditation of the program and courses by the University Senate 1 1

2.11.5 Recruit post graduate students to be fully sponsored by the project to study on climate

change at identified universities (No of students) 6 6

2.11.6 Sponsoring financially and support technically the enrolled MSc students for climate

change proposals relevant to the EIAR-RF project objectives at Arba Minch 6 6

2.11.7 Developing research concept notes on CCA and inviting those students enrolled for

MSc students at relevant universities –No of students 15 15

2.11.8 Advise on thesis projects engaging postgraduate students (MSc level) in identified

agricultural universities (Quarter of a year)

2.11.9 Keep track/record of number of trained researchers working in CCA (No of trained personnel in climate science)—both short and long terms

200 50 50 50 50

2.11.10 Organize a forum to map the sustainable partnership among project partners beyond the project life (No of forum/workshops).

2 1 2

15

2.11.11 Preparation and award of certificate for the project partners for their success in mainstreaming CCA into their strategies, programs and projects

38 38

2..12

Conduct gap analyses in CCA monitoring indicator data generation (eg; seasonal climate outlook, data quality assurance, database construction, data use policy etc) and data collection frequency for ultimate optimization of efforts on overall scale and across model institutions (No of quarters)

7 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

2.13 Describe corresponding solutions to the gaps for future optimization of efforts,

including data collection frequency, facilities, knowledge etc (No of quarters) 7 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

3.1.1 Undertake reviewing global climate change model outputs (No of models) 26 13 13 3.1.2 Identify most representative GCMs outputs 3 3

3.2.1 Conduct climate analyses/trends from past observations & future scenarios (data type)

5 3 2

3.2,2 Downscaling of GCMs outputs, using most representative one/s (No of to target locations representative models)

2 1 1

3.3.1 Draw CC social, economic and environmental vulnerability map to design and implement community-based adaptation/CBA (No of vulnerability maps)

3 2 1

3.3.2 Map climate change disaggregated impacts on Ethiopian agriculture using simulation modeling tools (No of impact maps)

3 2 1

3.4 Identify alternative adaptation options (crops/livestock, forestry) piloted with forecast product for decisions at a target place and period (No of adaptation options)

20 6 6 6 2

3.5 Con duct ground truth verification survey at selected farming zones

3.6 Localized field testing of the model outputs at selected farming zones (No of localized field testing)

20 6 6 6 2

3.7 Collect data, analyze and develop AEZs map showing shifts in climate pattern over Ethiopia (No of map)

1 1

3.8 Produce generic CCA guideline/manual (No of manuals) 1 1 3.9 Conduct training of relevant researchers on GCMs modelling (No of trainings) 10 2 2 2 2 2

4.1 Undertake gap analyses on agricultural research policy of the country (No of sources

of information) 3 1 1 1

4.2 Scoping the existing Agricultural Research Policy document to include the CCA (No

of document) 1 0.5 0.5

4.3 Scoping the existing Agricultural Research Strategy document to include CCA 1 0.5 0.5

4.4 Conduct awareness raising workshops and trainings for policy makers (No of trainings)

3 1 1 1

4.5 Building on the ongoing national CCA and mitigation policy document, including

governance structure of the new government coordination office (Time quarters)

2 1 1

4.6 Building on the ongoing national CCA and mitigation strategy document for

implementation (Quarter of a year) 2 1 1

4.7 Building on the ongoing national climate risk (drought, flood, frost) management policy document (Quarter of a year)

2 1 1

16

4.8 Building on the existing national climate risk (drought, flood, frost) management

strategy document (Quarter of a year) 2 1 1

4.9 Documentation of current data handling process by National Meteorology Agency (No of document)

1 1

4.10 Conduct gap analyses on climate data use policy and operational guideline (time quarter)

2 1 1

4.11 Building on the existing data use policy framework 1

5.1 Conduct training for the existing Extension System in climate change risk

management (No of trainees) 200 40 40 40 40 40

5.2 Conduct training for target farming communities in climate change risk management

(No of trainees) 500 100 100 100 100 100

5.3 Conduct gaps analyses for delivery of technology and best practices against the

existing extension and comparison in the face of the changing climate (No of thought of methods in technology extension)

7 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

5.4 Document alternative adaptation options (crops/livestock, forestry) piloted with forecast product for decisions at a target place and period (No of adaptation options)

20 6 6 6 2

5.5 Con duct ground truth verification survey at selected farming zones

5.6 Piloting seasonal climate outlook, weather forecasting for identified community based

adaptation (CBA) (Number of climate forecast) 5 3 2

5.7 Conduct seasonal climate outlook product validation scheme at NMA and measure

values therein with respect to agricultural decisions at specific localities (No of forecast validation)

7 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

5.8 Suitability mapping of high value crops (Number ) 4 2 2

5.9 Pilot soil water balance study in relation to changing climate at least at two one centre 2 1 1

5.10 Prepare new CCA methods and models that fits into the existing national technology

extension architecture (No of new models and methods) 5 2 2 1

5.11 Localized field testing of the model outputs at selected farming zones (No of localized field testing)

20 6 6 6 2

5.12 Redefine the conceptual framework of NMA-Research-Extension-Farmers landscape 5.13 Conduct pilot survey and analyses on area/yield for major crops (No of survey) 1 1

5.14 Pilot monitoring of major food security crops using identified tools (eg; LEAP, PHYGRO) (Quarter of a year) and remote sensing services

5 1 1 1 1 1

5.15 Pilot crop yield estimation of major food security crops using identified tools (eg; LEAP) (No of crops attended)

2 1 1

5.16 Analyse and account for gaps between actual/farmers yields, research results/experimental and potential/biological maximum yields for major crops and selected farming zones (No of trials)

2 1 1

5.17 Develop improved methods on area/yield for data quality assurance (No of improved methods)

2 2

Fin

aliz

atio

n

Report writing (quarterly, semi annual and annual) (No of reports) 14 1 2 1 3 1 2 3 1 Convening final workshop (Once-off) 1 1 Publication of project outputs/proceedings (No of copies) 200 200

17

3.3 Baseline data on partner institutions: power mapping with respect

to CCA mainstreaming

Baseline data that describing the current position of each of the partners has been collected through dispatching a relevant questionnaire to each of the participating institutions that helped for power mapping ‘who is doing what’ with respect to CCA. The analyses shows, none of the partners, except EIAR, NMA and Arba Minch University have structured climate change units at any level. Adama, Jimma and Hawassa Universities have some courses in few streams of their undergraduate programs. Oromiya Agricultural Research Institute has employed three junior meteorologists and one GIS specialist, while it has no single project on CCA. The Southern and Amhara Agricultural Research Institutes have also employed one graduate meteorologist each, with one climate related research activity. The Tigray Institute of Agricultural Research has neither climate change project nor climate man in its system. The pilot high school and preparatory schools have ‘Environmental Clubs/Scouts’ in which climate change issues has been treated very marginally.

3.4 Communication system and tools for the consortium

Different communication tools like the EIAR website, mobile phone, and RANET have been used in the communication process. Very recently, an independent web based Agrometerological database management system and advisory service was developed with the full financial coverage by the Rockefeller Foundation and the technical support of the project team (the home page is attached below).

A webpage was developed with the purpose of easing the chronic challenges embodied in data scarcity and access, as well as, link the users to the early warning information sources. In addition, it provides important web links that enhance the use of forecast products from all over the world; international, regional, national and private forecasters. Included forecast communities, but not limited to, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Center (ICPAC) and National Meteorology Agency (NMA) (Figure 2).

In addition to the above communication tools posters, banners, pamphlets and flyers have been used to announce the official launch of the project as well as to communicate the findings of the project among key stakeholders. Annex xx shows a poster that has been used to introduce the project to key stakeholders.

Figure 2: Home page of the webpage

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3.5 Tools for CCA mainstreaming Different levels of CCA mainstreaming tools have been identified for use in this project. These tools include project level, farmers training centers and higher learning institutions level mainstreaming tools.

3.5.1 Project level Climate Change Adaptation Mainstreaming Tool

This tool focuses on assessing the extent to which projects’ intervention could be influenced by climate risks and the remedies to manage such risks. It is a seven-step approach for mainstreaming climate change adaptation into projects and activities undergoing at a research center or development institutions. It is known as the Climate Vulnerability and Adaptation (CVA) pathway that follows a development path parallel to the project cycle. Figure 3 illustrates the relationship between the project cycle and the CVA Pathway, and the tools available to practitioners to complete each step of the project.

Figure 3: Summary of the project level Tools/pathways for mainstreaming CCA

3.5.2 Higher Learning Institute level entry point for mainstreaming CCA

The comprehensive knowledge review reveals that all the three partner agricultural universities have almost no CCA courses in their curricula. Thus, this tool is designed to help the universities incorporate CCA courses in their curricula and build their institutional capacities to offer the courses by own manpower.

19

Figure 4: Summary of the higher learning institution level Tools/pathways for mainstreaming CCA

3.5.3 Famer training center level entry point for mainstreaming CCA

Figure 5: Farmer training center level CCA mainstreaming tool

Steps Methods Output

Need assessment &

gap Identification

Interviews, Seminar, review

of existing documents

Module

Development

Implementation

M and E

Preparation of training modules

Training module

Background knowledge

Yield improvement

Piloting best bet adaptation

options

Timely monitoring success or

failure using predefined set of

performance indicators

Increased success &reduced

climate risks

FTC selection

Conducting capacity building

trainings for selected DAs &

farmers

Installation of communication

tools

20

3.6 Capacity building trainings

In Ethiopia, smallholder farmers are operating in a highly variable and complex environment. Rainfall patterns are irregular, with soil fertility levels showing considerable variations over short distances. Blanket recommendations regarding fertilizer applications and choice of variety, sowing date etc. are, therefore, unlikely to be effective. On the other hand, the cost and time required for development of site specific recommendation are prohibitive. In such situation, the use of decision support tool may allow cost and time saving and improve the quality of decision making. In this regard, crop simulation models: Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) and Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) are identified as best models while practicing climate risk management options. Table 7 summarizes those series of capacity building trainings conducted on scientific paper writing, climate-crop simulation modeling that were imparted to researchers and academicians drawn from partners. Table 7: Capacity building training given to the project partners (researchers and academicians)

Training course title

Provided by

Type of participants

No. of participants Date Male Female conducted

Scientific proposal writing

Melkassa Agricultural Research center (MARC) (Agmet- Researchers)

Researchers of MARC

15 2

Jun 23, 2010

APSIM Melkassa Agricultural Research center (MARC) (Agmet- Researchers)

Focal persons 18 3 Oct 20-29,2010

DSSAT Melkassa Agricultural Research center (MARC) (Agmet- Researchers)

Focal persons 18 3 Oct 20-29,2010

SDSM Melkassa Agricultural Research center (MARC) (Agmet- Researchers)

Focal persons 18 3 Oct 20-29,2010

Regional climate modeling using ICTP’s RegCM4

International center for theoretical Physics (ICTP)

Focal persons 10 1 Dec 30 – Jan 04, 2010

3.7 Documentation of current data handling process and national data

use policy of NMA

Currently, NMA has more than 1000 meteorological stations, of which 17 are synoptic and approximately 130 are first class or principal that records all climate elements required for full range of analyses and modeling. Around 400 stations are third class stations observing only minimum and maximum temperatures, while the remaining ones are 4th class, recording only rainfall.

NMA has chosen CLIDATA for its database management using a simple excel sheet, while some data like relative humidity and wind speed are not computerized yet. The remote sensing data available at NMA has also not been put to use, while the same institution is the focal point for reception and application of the remotely sensed data at national level. At the HQs, NMA possess two operational dedicated systems for the reception of EUMETCast, one installed by the ESA TIGER Project in 2004, while the other one of more recent date (2007).The products received are those of the EUMETCast Africa service, including all twelve METEOSAT channels, Japanese MITSAT images, some MODIS-based and other NOAA/NESDIS imagery, EUMETSAT meteorological products, the range of VG4AAFRICA products derived from SPOT VEGETATION and disseminated by VITO as well as WMO synoptic data for Africa.

21

It is mainly the VGT4AFRICA images that are consulted by the agromet team during the preparation of various reports. None of the Regional Branches of NMA are equipped with a satellite receiving station or has otherwise access to the imagery. None of the imagery received is republished in any of the bulletins or on the website of NMA, except for the far infrared channel of METEOSAT that is featured on the agency’s website and updated several times each day. On the other hand, the climate data provision policy of NMA is yet to be analysed from which useful recommendation would be released shortly.

3.8 Implementation of postgraduate study at Arba Minch University

Arba Minch University (AMU) is one of the partner institutions that had launched a postgraduate program in meteorology in 2005. However, the program was closed after two years. Luckily, the advent of the Rockefeller Foundation project has enabled the university to reinstate the program in its academic curricula through the commutations made with the project hosting institution (EIAR) and AMU. To this effect, a group of experts drawn from AMU and EIAR have designed ten courses ( annex 32) that aim at providing advanced study of the key issues in climate change science and adaptation/mitigation relevant policy dimension and impact modeling within the development context. The new M.Sc. program and courses has already been accredited by the University Senate. This has also created an opportunity for the other interested institutions to train professionals in the field of CCA. While the initial plan was to train only two MSc students abroad, presently four students are attending the program under full financial support of the Rockefeller Foundation project for award of masters degree in ‘Climate Change and Development’ in two years of formative period. The students have been drawn from different research institutions (two from Oromiya, one from the Southern Region and one from EIAR). The project is also planning to sponsor at least the thesis works of 3-5 already registered MSc students in the same university. For MU too, this will be a golden opportunity to build institutional capacity in the new program. The sustainability of the new postgraduate program was a concern for the officials; while the project hosting institute (EIAR) has confirmed that full support will be provided through the Rockefeller Foundation project during the years to come,. It was also agreed that the university itself will promote itself, like through joining the UFORUM to solve risks related to sustainability. The university has also been advised to open a summer program be it for a short term training or awarding a degree.

22

Figure 6. Partial view of the dialogue between Arba Minch University Officials and EIAR delegates

3.9 Procuring and placing climate related physical facilities

With the aim of capacitating farmers training centers (FTCs) and also facilitating for easy exchange of early warning information on seasonal climate prediction and weather forecasting, the project has planned to install four computers, together with the communication radio in a RANET system. RANET (Radio and Internet for the Communication of Hydro-Meteorological Information for Rural Development) is a satellite based broadcast that utilizes WorldSpace AfriStar and AsiaStar satellites. The unique advantage of the system for rural applications relates to the simple and inexpensive satellite receiver. Moreover, the system does not require internet connection to have access to data and information except for uploading information at the beginning. With no bigger than a typical personal FM radio is required, the system can be easily installed without any special support from the trained technician. So far, only two desktop computers have been procured and only one space radio is spared from the NMA side for the intended purpose. Further attempt will be made to improve the situation.

3.10 Installing High Performance Computers (HPCs)

Request was made, but not purchased due to administrative reasons

23

3.11 Development and sharing vulnerability mapping with partners

Following the capacity building training on climate change vulnerability mapping and analyses of its impact on selected food security crops, the principal investigator and the other two team members have presented a solicited paper on the Third National Maize Workshop that was recently held in Addis Ababa. Rockefeller Foundation is fully acknowledged for sponsoring the preparation of the paper entitled ‘The potential impacts of climate change-maize farming system complex in Ethiopia: Towards retrofitting adaptation and mitigation options’. For more details see the abstract (Annex 4). The PI of the project has also presented a solicited paper entitled <Towards Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation into Natural

Resources Management Research: Key in Food Security Assurance and Sustainable

Development> at the recently organized Soil and Water Research workshop organized by EIAR (Annex 5). Full paper can be submitted to the Rockefeller Foundation for further distribution

3.12 Sharing the impact analyses results on key crops with partners

The impact analyses for maize crop to continue growing under the climate changed future dates in Ethiopia has been conducted and communicated during the maize workshop indicated above. We have also planned to distribute among the stakeholders using the newly developed website. The same procedure is being under use to conduct impact analyses for the other food security crops (sorghum, wheat, barley and teff) for further publication and knowledge sharing.

3.13 Developing and sharing list of adaptation options with partners

The adaptation and mitigation options under the most likely future climate change scenarios has been communicated for maize farming in dryland benchmarks and action sites ( refer Annex 6).

Acknowledging that climate and weather affect crops through the entire growth cycle, the Rockefeller Foundation project recognizes the seasonal climate prediction and weather forecasting as the best adaption option for improved seasonal agricultural decision. Accordingly, a collaborative (among NMA, EIAR, MoA and FTCs) CBA based adaptation trial is underway in four districts of the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia under the title <Piloting seasonal climate prediction in crop monitoring and yield estimation under identified community based adaptation (CBA) scheme>. Full processes involved in the implementation of this research are discussed in the following section. This experimentation aims at providing early warning (advance) information for improved agricultural production system on key rainy season variables. Prior to the implementation of this research, the following activities have been conducted.

3.13.1 Holding seminar with key stakeholders A seminar was conducted with the aim of introducing the objective of the pilot and arriving at consensus on how to implement. The long term objective of the pilot was enhancing agricultural production by encouraging the farming community to use climate outlooks and weather forecasts in farm level decisions. Local decision makers and experts drawn from the MoA, NMA and EIAR were in attendance to the seminar that eventually led to formulation of the treatments for field experimentation (Fig 7).

24

From the discussion, it was revealing that potential users do not really understand the economic benefit of using meteorological information in their day-to-day agricultural activities, hence there has been low demand for the information and as a result, it was not possible to value the impact of seasonal climate prediction and weather forecasting information. For NMA, the provision of such services also raises its visibility in improving the space-time characteristics of its seasonal climate outlook and weather forecasting information and provision service.

Figure 7. Partial view of seminar : decsion maker and agricultural exstention experts.

In each of the four project districts, two FTC’s were selected (a total of 8 FTCs) of which one FTC is assigned to receive both improved technological package plus agrometeorological information (variable one), while the second FTC is titled to receive only improved technological package (variable 2) as indicated in Fig 8.

Fig. 8 Schematic representation of the selected action sites and treatments

East Showa zone(Central Rift Valley Region)

Ada’a District

Lome District

Adama District

Boset District

Gunda Gurba FTC (TR1)

Kality FTC (TR2)

Deqk FTC (TR1)

Gurma_Tole FTC (TR2)

Dabe_Dengore FTC

(TR1)

Guraja FTC (TR2)

Digalu_Wonga FTC

(TR1)

Tri_Bereti FTC (TR2)

Six Farmers

Six Farmers

Six Farmers

Six Farmers

Six Farmers

Six Farmers

Six Farmers

Six Farmers

25

After the action sites and treatments have been selected, decision had to be made on the field layout and the way forward on the piloting. Table 8 Summary of seminar participant experts by partner institution

No. Institutions Participants

Decision Maker Expert Total

1 NMA 1 3 4

2 MoA 4 6 10

3 EIAR 1 3 4

Total 6 12 18

3.13.2 Participatory selection of crops and varieties After launching the pilot project and engaging partner institutions, the next step was introducing the pilot to selected development agents and farmers and selection of crop and varieties (Table 9). Table 9 List of crops and varieties used for commmnity based adaptation trial.

No. District Crop Variety

1 Ada’a Wheat HAR -604 2 Lome Teff DZ-CR-37 3 Adama Haricot beans AWASH-1 4 Boset Teff DZ-CR-37

Logistics, including agricultural inputs and responsible institution for a given task was determined immediately. Finally, the workshop was winded up with every institution taking its responsibilities and pledges towards the success of the objective underlying the CBA based experimentation. Table 10 Summary of development agents and farmers participated in pilot project

No District

Participants

Development Agent Farmers

Male Female Male Female

1 Ada’a 1

2

12 0

2 Lume 2 1 10 2

3 Adama 2 1

11

1

4 Boset 2 1 11 1

Total 7 5 44 4

26

3.13.3 Providing a dekadal weather forecast information to farmers and DAs

In the process of downscaling the national level forecast product to the community level, enhancing the frequency of the weather information provision and crop monitoring is crucial. Installing plastic rain gauges and providing Crop Monitoring Format were the prior tasks before planting on each of the FTCs fields, who are entitled to receive both technologies plus weather information. In order to ensure the project success, the second training was also conducted for 12 female and 11 male DAS DAs on how to record rain event from the rain gauge and on crop phenology. Following the training, those selected DAs are expected to report the recorded rainfall and observed phenological observations as well as crop performance report every 10 days. Information on the probability of the start of rains and on optimum planting dates of various crops and varieties were also issued at the beginning of the rainy season. Currently, community level forecast and early warning service for any abnormal performance of the rainy season and the possible occurrence of dry spells is issued on dekadal (10 daily) basis. A bulletin composed of crop performance report, whether impact assessment and forecast (outlook) as well as agro meteorological advisories is delivered to development agents every 10 day so that they could advise the farmer. Towards the end of the season, yield forecasting will be conducted and compared with yields obtained by those farmers who did not receive agrometeorological advisory service. Table 11. Data and information to be disseminated and means of dissemination

No. Information Time resolution Means of dissemination

1 Early warning Any time Short message service (SMS) and Regional Mass Media (Radio)

2 Weekly Weather Forecast

Every week Regional Mass Media (Radio)

3 10 daily agro-meteorological advisory service

Every 10 days Fax, e-mail , direct contact

4 Monthly climate, health and agro-meteorological bulletin

Every month Fax, e-mail , direct contact

5 Seasonal climate prediction

Every season (bega, belg, kiremt)

Regional Mass Media (Radio) and climate outlook forum (COF)

6 Seasonal climate, prediction, agro-meteorological bulletin

Every season (bega, belg, kiremt)

Fax, e-mail , Direct contact

27

3.13.4 Information communication tool on seasonal climate prediction and weather forecasting

Information communication tool was prepared, considering the existing reality and current level of communication tools which will be implemented in the pilot project. For details refer Fig. 9.

Figure 9. Communication tool at various levels

4. Emerging opportunities

Ethiopia is committed to follow the climate resilient green economy approach, that gives wider room for demonstration of values of the Rockefeller Foundation financed in the new national initiative.

The omnipresence of the MOA till grass root level (the establishment of 11,000 Farmer Training Centers and 69,000 development agents positioning at community level.

Enhanced interest of research to expand government funded research projects to include CCA

28

Opportunity of expanding (scaling out) the project idea and practices to Rockefeller Foundation grant receiving countries in East Africa

Strong commitment from African Governments on CCA Public climate money is hovering in the air; thus any one with good idea has an

opportunity access the money. Opportunities are also many, especially since the time is right and ripe to confront

climate change through networking, and that, international donors are demonstrating great interest.

5. Lessons learnt and key challenges

The research system cannot have any priority agenda than considering climate as a variable in its core business. Clearly, adaptation to climate change requires new level of thinking and technologies (business as usual cannot be the way forward). Therefore, re-positioning the existing technologies in response to ensuing opportunities is a key issue. Furthermore, structuring cclimate science courses into the high schools and higher learning institutions is all the more decisive factor. We also learnt that partner institutions need to be graduated for mainstreaming CCA into their core business. While adaptation is recognized as localized action, however, supportive and enabling policies at the national and beyond are also critical to benefit from the ‘low lying fruits’ from the adaptation efforts. Table 12. Key challenges in successful implementation of the CCA mainstreaming project

Climate-agriculture Institution

Critical challenges (key to success)

National Meteorology Agency (NMA)

• Standardizing, computerization and compatible network of national climate database • Making forecast user-tailored, with particular focus on agriculture • Strengthening institutional capacity in space-time quality of the forecast products • Formulate working climate data use policy and use right • Linking its capacity to MoA to provide Agrometeorological Advisory Extension Service

Research • Strengthening institutional capacity to analyze vulnerability and costs of the likely climate change impact

• Aligning existing and future research projects and activities in order to proof adaptation options • Attaching research products to the forecast products and timely communication to clients • Developing innovative adaptation models and methods, scientific and systematic monitoring for the

future climate changed dates • Expanding its partnerships with other development support institutions (development in a changed

climate would be complex, requiring partnership) • Increasing the scalability of the pilot application of the seasonal climate prediction and weather forecast

for improved operational decisions.

Ministry of Agriculture

• Improving area and yield assessment techniques for quality assurance • Strengthening institutional capacity for better technology communication and uptake pathways • Improving the agro-ecological shit map following the climate change impact

Knowledge Institutions (HEIs)

• Review existing curricula and structuring climate change adaptation into research and education at all levels

• Capacity building of teachers, curriculum developers and researchers. • Ensuring accreditation of the courses and working for sustainability of the program

Policy makers • Structuring an independent government body for coordination of climate change issues that also ensures networking

29

6. Next Step Firstly, any activity that has not fully achieved (if any) will be flagged and implemented immediately. Secondly, the thoroughly listed in Table 6 will be implemented, as per the plan of action given therein.

• Formulation of National Drought Policy (NDP) in view of the anticipated adverse climate change impact on Ethiopian economy wide sectors

Farmers Training Centers

• Capacity building (office infrastructure and training) to respond and minimize the threat and losses from drought

• Promote the use of localized/indigenous/traditional knowledge and know-how • Preparedness and trust building to respond to the early warning information

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7. Annex

Annex 1: Number of focal persons by partner institution

No. Institution No of Focal

Person/s Remark

1 Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR) 14

NARS 2 Tigray Research Institute 1 3 Southern Agricultural Research Institute 1 4 Oromiya Agricultural Research Institute 3 5 Amhara Regional Agricultural Research Institute 1 6 Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) 1

Development support

institutions

7 Climate Change Forum-Ethiopia (CCF-E) 1 8 National Meteorology Agency (NMA) 1 9 Extension Directorate, MoA 1 10 Adama University, Assela College of Agriculture 1

Knowledge institutions

11 Jima University, College of Agriculture 1 12 Hawassa University, College of Agriculture 1 13 Arba Minch University 1 14 Andnet Secondary School (Assela) 1 15 Chilalo Terara Secondary School (Assela) 1 16 Hawas Preparatory School (Adama) 1 17 St. Joseph Preparatory School 1 18 Farmers Training Centres (FTCs) 10 Target

beneficiaries Total 42

Annex 2. Terms of Reference (ToR) for focal personnel

1. Set up Office/Desk (including physical facilities) for managing all CCA related matters in his/her duty station/institution. Establishing the long aspired agrometeorology /climate change research and advisory service in his/her respective centre is the target.

2. Prepare Baseline Information (data) together with the Target with respect to CCA mainstreaming that also helps to measure the difference after the project intervention, with ensuring the sustainability of the impact beyond the project life is in perspective.

3. Coordinate CCA mainstreaming activities across all core Research Processes/partners. The earliest entry point towards mainstreaming is to re-define the ONGOING GOVERNMNENT research and development activities for their sensitivity to climate change and expanding them to include the CCA issues whenever this is possible and logical.

4. Ensures the incorporation of CCA issues as a Variable or Treatment into the government funded NEW projects.

5. The Focal Personnel will ensure collection of data on key indicator variables on CCA mainstreaming project that could be analysed and translated into impacts, as well as for database building for sustenance of the impact, despite the project life is too short.

6. Reporting on quarterly basis, on the CCA project at his/her duty place to the Project Coordination Office (EIAR) as per the set Format.

7. Take a stock of the existing and envisioned global & national circumstances, possibilities and opportunities in and around his/her research/development institution and do all what is possible and within his/her reach in sustaining the CCA and its impact…Innovative approach.

8. Liaise BGA with the relevant research and development processes 9. Guiding the Observers of the research centre, strengthen weather data collection, archiving, processing

and reporting, as well as strengthen ‘Weather Station maintenance, establishment and upgrading activities. 10. Keep BGA informed of the progresses, including any unexpected outcomes (be as it may the worst or

best case scenario) with respect to CCA mainstreaming at his/her duty area. 11. Being within the framework of the project objectives and goal, prepare detailed annual work plan and

divide among team members/participants for smooth and successful implementation of the project. 12. Assess and understand existing realities and identify knowledge gaps in CCA and present in the form of

debate or seminars or publish for a follow up measure.

31

13. May build institutional capacity to host meetings/workshops and conferences on CCA mainstreaming and sustainability of the impact from the policy, science and technology perspectives.

14. Work for the excellences of the project outputs from own institution’s interest perspective. 15. Accountable for financial performance preparation and reporting as per the time speculated in the

project document. 16. Provide guidance to the recruited technical personnel assigned to work in the project.

Responsibility of the Project Secretariat & Biometrics, GIS and Agrometeorology Process

1. Provide technical assistance and inspire the Focal Personnel to discharge his/her responsibility 2. Transfer and reimburse due funds in time for carrying out the planed activities as per the agreed plan of

actions and on the basis of accountabilities (reporting) for the previously transferred ones. 3. Organize capacity building/refresher training for Focal Personnel on regular basis (eg; trainings on CCA

related proposal writing, M &E, data analyses and interpretation). 4. Plan and facilitate for participation of the Focal Personnel in the international, regional and national

workshops/conferences/trainings 5. Regular monitoring and creation of every possible enabling environment for the personnel in the process

of discharging their responsibility. 6. Recruit technical personnel for identified institutions that would work under the full guidance of the Focal

Personnel.

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Annex 3: Structure of M.Sc. study in Climate Change and Development Duration : 2 Years (3 semesters) Eligibility : B.Sc. (Meteorology) or B.Sc. (Physics/Mathematics/Environmental science/Statistics) with meteorological background

Semester-I

S. No.

Course Code Course Title Expected Instructor

Credits L L/T C

1. MHS-601 Atmospheric and Ocean Dynamics Dr. Rao/Prof M.Jury

3 3 4

2. MHS-611 Advanced statistical methods in atmospheric science

Guest ( EIAR)-Dr. Girma Taye

1 3 2

3. MHS 621 Earth system modeling Dr. Rao 3 3 4

4 MHS-631 The science of climate change Guest/Dr. Zewudu)

3 3 4

5 MHS -641 Lab Course-1: Computer Programming and Climate Modeling

Staff/Dr. Gulilat 2 3 3

Total 12 18 17

Semester-II

S. No.

Course Code Course Title Expected Instructur

Credits L L/T C

1. MHS- 602 Climate change: Impact, Adaptation and Mitigation

Prof.M.Jury 2 3 3

2. MHS-612 Agro meteorology: Principle and application of climate studies in agriculture

EIAR (guest)

2 3 3

3. MHS-622 Hydrology: Principles and analysis Dr. Adane 2 3 3

4. MHS-632 Lab Course-2: Hydrological and Agricultural Modeling

Dr. Kassa 2 6 3

5. MHS-642 Research methods (Climate Changes) Dr. Rao 1 3 2

Total 9 18 14

Semester- III

S. No. Course Code Course Title Credit Hour

1. MHS-701 Major Thesis 9

2. MHS-711 Internship/Minor Thesis 6

Total 15

Total Credits = 46

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Annex 4: Abstract of the paper entitled <The potential impacts of climate

change - maize farming system complex in Ethiopia: Towards retrofitting

adaptation and mitigation options>

Girma Mamo, Fikadu Getachew and Gizachew Legesse Agrometeorology Research Group, Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR) Abstract

A decrease in food supply caused by a variable and changing climate is one reason for the current skyrocketing in food prices at global scale. For Ethiopia, results from different global climate models (GCMs) reveal an increasing rainfall trend in the next century, but with (low confidence), while temperature is increasing (high confidence): by 0.28oC per decade. Maize, a tropical crop on which millions depend for their livelihoods, is among those crops responsive to the change in climate. More challenging and uneasy to address involves an age old and poor maize farming practices that enhance green houses gases (GHGs) emission, including but not limited to, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). Concerns in reducing the impact of poor agricultural practices like the inefficient application techniques of synthetic fertilizers, deforestation and soil erosion on global warming has led the Ethiopian government to categorically adopt the program ‘lower emitting techniques’ under the strategy known as Green Growth Economy’ (CRGE) initiative that also becomes highly relevant if maize research and development effort is framed in this initiative. It is against this background of the bi-directional climate - maize farming complex that we found it appealing to analyze and map future climate change, Ethiopia’s degree of vulnerability and impact of the changing climate, followed by identification of maize based adaptation-mitigation options. The seasonal climate variability analyses for two important maize research centers; Bako and Melkassa. Results reveal an average kiremt rainfall onset date for Bako to be on 112th days of year (DOY) or 22nd of April, with the rainy season ending on DOY 283 (October 10). Accordingly, Bako is characterized to have a median 183 days of length of growing period (LGP), with the seasonal rainfall total of 1240 mm. The 95% confidence limits for the true median length of rain season at Bako range from 168 to 196 days and receiving more than 964 mm in 3 out of 4 years. The temperature minima and maxima for the same station would be 26.5 and 15.3 degree Celsius during the growing season. An overall result confirms that Bako can afford maize cultivars with maturity period of 6 to 7 month. For Melkassa, the analytical results for seasonal rainfall features reflect the rainfall onset date turning on DOY 178 or June 27, while end of season is DOY 273 (end of September). Accordingly, the LGP is 95 days with season median rainfall total of 503 mm, while 540 mm is one that takes place in three out of four years. The prevailing temperature maximum of 27.0oC and minimum of 15.7oC characterizes the growing season. The future climate of the study sites were also projected, following the model validation work for temperature and rainfall patterns. The relationship between the accumulated growth degree days (GDD) along the growing season and grain yield of Melkassa-1 revealed a good pattern correlation viz; a change in grain yield also tracking change in GDD curve. The corresponding higher GDD must have also enhanced maize plant development, resulting in early maturation and therefore reduced grain yield. At Bako, longer LGP and seasonal rainfall amount and higher amount of accumulated GDD is expected during the growing period, compared to that of Melkassa. The relationship between GDD and grain yield of maize (BH660) shows similar trend, on the basis of which possible adaptation options were drawn. On the other hand, the impact analyses of maize

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farming practices on climate change through the differential emissions of CO2 equivalent GHGs from three drivers (synthetic fertilizers, manure and incorporation of crop residues) for two benchmark periods (2010 and 2030) illuminates an emission of 0.03 million tons of CO2

equivalent GHGs in 2010 and 0.2 million in year 2030 for crop residue incorporation, while maize manure application results in emission of 0.18 million tons in 2010 and 0.5 million tons in 2030. Similarly, 0.45 million tons in 2010 and 1.2 million tons in 2030 from the increased use of synthetic fertilizers were estimated. Ultimately some possible mitigation options were drawn which were also identified to be included in the CRGE. Overall, the key to learn is the future time would turn hardest to our maize researchers in taking advantages of the good seasons or stabilizing yields during bad seasons, which ever scenario might arise in any one year.

Key words: Green house gases, business as usual, climate resilient green economy, lower emitting techniques

Annex 5. Abstract of the paper entitled <Towards Mainstreaming Climate

Change Adaptation into Natural Resources Management Research: Key in

Food Security Assurance and Sustainable Development

Girma Mamo, Agro meteorologist Ethiopian Institute of Agric-Research (EIAR)

Abstract

Ethiopia is characterized by an extraordinary landscape that ranges from the highland (covering about 44% of the total land mass) to the Denakil depression of 116 m.b.s.l. In between, there also exist large swaths of low and intermediate areas, both of which having varying extents of potential for agricultural development and multiple risks of climate and associated land resource degradation., including soil erosion due to unwise land tilling, salinity, as well as conversion of swathes of forest lands in the process of expanding crop lands. When coupled with the recently much in vogue ‘climate change’ issue that is confronting virtually every nation in the recent times, the challenge must be formidable to the communities of natural resources management and food security attendants in Ethiopia. Best manifested by the changes in frequency and severity of temperatures and rainfall, climate change in this context is defined as the long term shift from the average or increase in amplitude of occurrence of the same and many more other climate variables. The effort made on the other side of the scale to arrest this spiral of land degradation and adapting the changing climate never compensate for the loss. This paper argues that mainstreaming climate change adaptation concepts and practices that converges and balances all efforts to the level of both environmental and economic benefits is the panacea. The paper also discusses resources at hand on CCA, while providing account of the subject in a way the best strategy that corrects the problem could be in place. This also points to the wake-up call to the soil and water research to systematically re-examine its research programs and projects, with the aim of identifying how best climate change adaptation could be mainstreamed into natural resources technology generation, communication and impact slots.

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Annex 6. Farm level adaptation responses in maize to the highly likely

climate change in Ethiopia

Climate change related scenarios Most likely challenges/impacts Adaptation options Regions known for maize production run out of the system due to lack of rainfall (<250 mm)

• Crops water requirements cannot be met at any growth stage and therefore maize production under rain-fed farming is impossible

• Total irrigation

• Specialization

Irreversible shift in rain onset date from early to late

• Planting window of long cycle maize cultivars narrowed,

• High yielding long cycle maize cultivars cannot be grown any longer

• Modifying maize growth cycle cultivars befitting the modified rain season (medium or short duration cultivars)

Early season cessation • Shortened length of growing period implies shortened grain filling period and shriveled grain

• Water harvesting for supplemental irrigation and increase water use efficiency (more yield per drop of water), providing better condition for plants to grow.

• Weather index based insurance scheme (transfer ones risk to the third party)

Soil water deficit, evaporative demand exceeds rainfall amounts

• Maize production is possible, but rainfall insufficient to meet crop water requirement

• Water harvesting for supplemental irrigation at critical growth stages

• Weather index based insurance scheme (partly, package)

• Increasing water productivity (grain yield mm-1) through cultivar choice and improved soil water management practices

Declining seasonal rainfall amount • Maize production is possible, but rainfall insufficient to meet crop water requirement

• Water harvesting for supplemental irrigation at critical growth stages

• Increasing water productivity (grain yield mm-1) through cultivar choice and improved soil water management practices

Shrink in size of belg rainfall areas • Production areas in which belg and kiremt rains used to be merged with long cycle maize cultivars would be impossible

• Switch to the short cycle maize cultivars

Unpredictable rains due to increased variability in rain onset date and extremes

• Difficult to adopt fixed agronomic recommendations (date of sowing, cultivars, planting density and fertilizers)

• Use seasonal rainfall forecast information from the forecast communities for early warning and informed decisions

• Weather index based insurance scheme

Erratic distribution, extended dry spells (once the season sets in)

• Reduced maize yield or total crop failure due to shortage of moisture at critical growth stages

• Modifying maize growth cycle to ensure that plants experience sufficient moisture during the critical stages.

• Develop a suite of maize varieties (early to late maturing), so that the harvest is less vulnerable to stress at critical periods

• Emphasize population breeding than pure line breeding Torrential storms over a short time (days)

• Rainfall exceeds infiltration capacity of the soil, reduced stand establishment, slow growth rate

• Safe disposal of excess water (drainage), harvesting excess water to use at times of deficit

Heat load • Premature switchover from vegetative to reproductive stage (required heat unit met earlier than usual)

• Resurgence of new pests and pathogens

• Shift the temperature optima for crop growth through breeding

• Varieties with roots that can withstand attack by soil-borne pests and diseases

• Develop heat tolerant cultivars

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Annex 7: Poster used for advertising the project