Educator & Regional Airline Consortium Preparing First Officers for Part 121 Operations Using Competency-Based Education 1.

Educator & Regional Airline Consortium

Preparing First Officers forPart 121 Operations

Using Competency-Based Education

1


Context & Mission Statement• Advocate competency-based training for first officers• Help the Administrator create rational rules to

qualify part 121 first officer candidatesVision: And thereby:

• Encourage talented young people to consider “airline pilot” as an aviation career

• Support the industry with a strong cadre of enthusiastic candidates in the pilot supply chain

2


StrategyProvide tools to the Administrator that lead to rational rulemaking,

promoting safety and the public interest:

1. Expert opinion through responses to the ANPRM2. Pilot indoctrination success: Pilot Source Study3. A plausible framework of entry level competencies4. UAA Professional Pilot Curriculum Survey5. Testimony, anecdote, and success stories6. Damage consequence analysis

These assets become available to the Administrator and/or an Aviation Rulemaking Committee (ARC) in a time frame consistent with

current legislative proposals and rulemaking3


Strategy - DetailsProvide tools to the Administrator that lead to rational rulemaking, promoting safety

and the public interest:1. Expert opinion through responses to the ANPRM

– Position papers from each organization, company/institution, or individual

2. Pilot indoctrination success: Pilot Source Study– De-identified data, many researchers, many sources, no sponsors

3. A plausible framework of entry level competencies– Specific competencies: KSAs; demonstrable by education/accreditation or examination

4. UAA Professional Pilot Curriculum Survey– Investigation into collegiate program curricula alignment with competency based education

5. Testimony, anecdote, and success stories– Appeal through emotional connection to young pilots

6. Damage consequence analysis– Econometric and qualitative impact to pilot supply/aviation system if arbitrary ATP (1500 hours) is enacted by law

These assets become available to the Administrator and/or an Aviation Rulemaking Committee (ARC) in a time frame consistent with

current legislative proposals and rulemaking

4


Expert Opinion: ANPRM Response• Organization responses; i.e. AABI, UAA, PCI, PABC, RAA, etc.;

drafted to reflect mission• Institutional responses; i.e. Purdue, UND, ERAU, etc.;

composed to reflect individual program• Industry responses; i.e. ASA, American Eagle, Cape Air,

Horizon, etc.; composed to reflect airline perspective• Individual responses• Ad hoc responses; i.e. NTAS Employer/Educator panel

outcome

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Pilot Source Study• Follow on to 2008 Pilot Yield Study

– One institution, one airline– Portrayed at Hearings as flawed and self-serving

• Independent study, many researchers, many sources– Pilot subjects & airline sources de-identified– Fast track Phase 1 to meet legislative/ANPRM time table

• Similar dependent variable to 2008 Pilot Yield Study• Simpler input• Research team includes liaison and statistical expertise• Four airlines committed, recruiting others

– Possible multi-variant Phase 2

• Ecumenical methodology – Unbranded, unsponsored, unfunded– Identified only by researchers and sources– Resistive to special interest criticism

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1. BACKGROUND– Survey ID, Year Hired

2. COLLEGE– Undergrad College Degree (None, Associates, Bachelors)– Undergrad Degree (Name) & University (Name)

3. PILOT TRAINING– Military (Pilot - Fixed or Rotary, Non-Pilot Aviator)– Advanced Pilot Training (Military, College, Part 142/141, or Part 61)

4. CFI (Y/N) – Dual given (Hrs)

5. PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE– Total Hours (#)– Previous Corporate or Airline

6. OUTCOME– Extra Training Events (#)– Completed Training (Y/N)

2010 Pilot Source Study

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Institution Liaison and Airlines

Airline Contact Institution Liaison

ASA Darrin Greubel Auburn Ray Hamilton

Cape Air Craig Bentley ERAU Guy Smith

American Eagle Allen Hill Purdue Tom Carney

Horizon LaMar Haugaard UND Beth Bjerke

Mesa Arizona State Bill McCurry

Pinnacle

Cogan

Other

Other

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Schedule Summary• First milestone: First Data Complete by Wednesday, March 10• Second milestone: Research Volunteers by Monday, March 15• Third milestone: Data Analyzed by Wednesday, March 24• Fourth milestone: Validate Results by Monday, March 29• Fifth milestone: Validate Report by Thursday, April 1• Sixth milestone: Deliver Report Draft by Monday, April 5• Seventh milestone: Deliver Report to Administrator by

Thursday, April 8

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First Officer Competencies• Provided to Administrator/ARC as a suggested working draft in many responses to ANPRM• May be one of many suggested references from educators and industry• Does not specify FAA implementation method; i.e. endorsement, MPL, new rating, etc.• Derived from previous AABI Standards• Contains desired Knowledge, Skills, Attitudes

– 22 Knowledge competencies– 2 Skills competencies– Demonstration in aircraft/high level FTD/simulator suggested

• ABBI prepared to embed competencies in accredited flight education programs– Examination is an alternative means of demonstrating competencies

• Addresses education and training up to first officer indoctrination• Does not address employer indoctrination responsibilities; e.g.

– Airline specific training– Type specific training– IOE– Crew pairing policy

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UAA Professional Pilot Curriculum Survey

• Survey of University flight education Programs• Key commercial aviation-related topics taught• How much time devoted to each topic

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Testimony, Success Stories • Designed to show young, positive attitude,

successful flight crew members• Recruited from participating regional carriers• Counter the image of cynicism about the

career path• Provided by any respondent to the ANPRM as

deemed appropriate• This is the marketing appeal

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Damage Consequence Analysis• There will be a catastrophic impact on aviation substituting logged time for

the current or a future competency-based first officer qualification model• During the last up cycle, employers were already hiring instructors out of

the pilot training supply chain; the phrase “eating the seed corn” was used• If 1500 hours required for SIC, qualitative and quantitative analyses predict:

– Severe adverse affect of pilot education economics on first officer supply– Trainees will seek the least expensive, (also least instructive) path to 1500 hours– Cost of training will escalate x2 to x4, depending on training aircraft chosen– Pilot training is an eight or more year phenomenon, starting with middle/high

school aspiration– Pilot aspirants will opt out of a flight career

• Results: – Crew scarcity for operational availability, and– Parked airplanes at Regionals, interrupted supply chain for Majors

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Pilot Availability Analysis*

• Evaluation of training supply & demand, used ATP/1500 hours for PIC to forecast pilot demand

– Realistic assumptions were used on pilot retirements– Age 65 retirement age change was included

• Analysis was conservative because:– It did not consider a 10% reduction in pilot training career enrollments currently emergent – If ATP is also required for SIC, the analysis will be skewed to a vastly more dire

consequence

• During the next hiring cycle through 2027, analysis predicts a 44,000 pilots shortfall• If ATP required for SIC,

– the pilot demand will increase severely – The pilot supply system will enter a severe compression wave– Once the discouragement model is set, it is impossible to recover swiftly

14*Duggar, Smith, and Harrison (2009):


Damage Consequence Analysis

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*Study FootnoteProposed changes in airline pilot requirements in S1744 would simultaneously increase the demand for ATPs, while severely curtailing the first officer positions that allow pilots to build enough flight hours to become ATPs. Two nominal sensitivities of the growth rate of ATPs are therefore provided for illustrative purposes, -1% CAGR (Compounded Annual Growth Rate) and -2% CAGR. This is an extremely conservative estimate, especially considering the fact that, absent any legislative change, entries into quality aviation programs (accredited universities and academies) are already down by more than 10% at most institutions.

*Duggar, Smith, and Harrison (2009)


Summary & Intended Result• Educators and Regionals are acting together• Pilot Supply Study, Testimony, and Econometric analysis are

available to legislators, administrators, and staffers• Congress will provide Administrator appropriate rulemaking

authority• ANPRM replies, Pilot Supply Study Phase 1, & Competencies

will be provided to an ARC for analysis and recommendation• ARC will recommend appropriate rulemaking• Administrator will release new rule(s) before end 2010• The public safety, pilot supply chain, and airline interests are

all served

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Context & Mission Statement• Advocate competency-based training for first officers• Help the Administrator create rational rules to

qualify part 121 first officer candidatesVision: And thereby:

• Encourage talented young people to consider “airline pilot” as an aviation career

• Support the industry with a strong cadre of enthusiastic candidates in the pilot supply chain

17

Educator & Regional Airline Consortium Preparing First Officers for Part 121 Operations Using Competency-Based Education 1.

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