Earned Value Analisys

*What Is It ?

Why Do I Need It ?

How Do I Do It?Earned Value Analysis

*Todays SituationNeed for accurate and consistent status informationNumerous complex (and interrelated) projectsProjects with many WBS activitiesVirtual officesDiverse technology platforms

*Theres Room For Improvement70% of projects are:Over budgetBehind schedule

52% of all projects finish at 189% of their initial budget

And some, after huge investments of time and money, are simply never comple

Source:The Standish Group

*How to answer the question: Have we done what we said wed do?% complete estimating % of Budget spent% of work done% of time elapsedsubjective, incomplete draws false conclusions

*Enter Earned Value AnalysisEarned Value Analysis is:an industry standard way to:measure a projects progress,forecast its completion date and final cost, andprovide schedule and budget variances along the way.

By integrating three measurements, it provides consistent, numerical indicators with which you can evaluate and compare projects.

*Whats more Important?Knowing where you are on schedule?

Knowing where you are on budget?

Knowing where you are on work accomplished?

*EVA Integrates All ThreeIt compares the PLANNED amount of work with what has actually been COMPLETED, to determine if COST , SCHEDULE, and WORK ACCOMPLISHED are progressing as planned.Work is Earned or credited as it is completed.

*Earned Value needed because...Different measures of progress for different types of tasks

Need to roll up progress of many tasks into an overall project status

Need for a uniform unit of measure (dollars or work-hours).

*Earned Value needed because...Provides an Early Warning signal for prompt corrective action.

Bad news does not age well.

Still time to recover

Timely request for additional funds

*And One More ReasonWhy You Need EVA?

*Because You Gotta !These Set the Stage:GPRA; 1993FASA, Title V; 1994Clinger-Cohen Act; 1996And Then Along Came OMB! (Circular A-11, Part 7)"Agencies must use a performance based acquisition management system, based on ANSI/EIA Standard 748, to measure achievement of the cost, schedule, and performance goals."

*OK, So What Is This Stuff?

*So, Is This Stuff New ?Its been around since the sixties.

Cost/Schedule Control Systems Criteria(C/SCSC)

*Examples of informal Earned Value AnalysisIts done informally without realizing it.30% time used,30% $$ spentSo, if 30% of the work is done, I must be OK ??

Shop floor estimates

Cost comparisonsBudget vs. Actual

*Hows this project doing?

EVA Chart

500050005000

120001100012500

190001750019000

290002620029000

390003500039000

550004900055000

650005600065000

800003783437834

900003786537865

950003789537895

1000003792637926

1020003795637956

Project is:

13.8% Behind Schedule16.1% Over Cost

BCWS

BCWP

ACWP

Typical Chart

90008640

1800017280

2700025920

3600034560

4500043200

5400051840

6300060480

7200037834

8100037865

9000037895

9900037926

10800037956

Projected

Actual

Typical Data

1/1/032/1/033/1/034/1/035/1/036/1/037/1/038/1/039/1/0310/1/0311/1/0312/1/03

Projected900018000270003600045000540006300072000810009000099000108000

Actual8640172802592034560432005184060480

Factor0.96

EVA Data

1/1/032/1/033/1/034/1/035/1/036/1/037/1/038/1/039/1/0310/1/0311/1/0312/1/03

BCWS5000120001900029000390005500065000800009000095000100000102000

BCWP5000110001750026200350004900056000

ACWP5000125001900029000390005500065000

Schedule Variance0-1000-1500-2800-4000-6000-9000

Sched. Var. %0.0%-8.3%-7.9%-9.7%-10.3%-10.9%-13.8%

Schedule Perf. Index1.0000.9170.9210.9030.8970.8910.862

Cost Variance0-1500-1500-2800-4000-6000-9000

Cost Var. %0.0%-13.6%-8.6%-10.7%-11.4%-12.2%-16.1%

Cost Perf. Index1.0000.8800.9210.9030.8970.8910.8621.161

EAC 1

VAC 1

VAC % 1

EAC 2

Project is:


*Lets Take A Look Under The Hood

*But First! - We gotta get organizedEVA works best when work is compartmentalized.

Compartmentalization is best achieved with a well-planned Work Breakdown Structure.

So, how do I create a WBS for a really complex project?

*Obviously in small bites.How am I gonna eat this elephant?

*Proper WBS DesignOne WBS per programDeliverable-orientedWork not in the WBS is out-of-scopeEach descending level represents more detailFull (and accurate) definition is keyDefined deliverable(s)Timeframe for delivery of productTotal cost (direct and indirect) to deliver product

Lets Look at an example:

*A sample Work Breakdown StructureServe Pizzas to CustomersProvide the PlaceCook the FoodServe Customers(Others)Cook the SauceMake the DoughBuild the Pizza

*WBS Units are Work PackagesLowest level WBS elements

Have an accompanying narrative

Have three measurable componentsScope of work to be accomplishedTotal (direct and indirect) costTimeframe for completion

*Control Account PlansA CAP is essentially a Work Package with some added features:Assignment of responsibilityOrganizationIndividualDivision (if necessary) into lower-level Work Packages.Metrics for measuring EV performanceMilestones% completeOther

The sum of the CAPs constitutes the Performance Measurement Baseline

*Enough With the WBS Stuff Already !We came here to talk about Earned Value.

*Some New TermsBCWS - Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled

ACWP - Actual Cost of Work Performed

BCWP - Budgeted Cost of Work Performed

*Earned Value DefinitionsBCWS: Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled

Planned cost of the total amount of work scheduled to be performed by the milestone date.

*BCWS - Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled

Chart2

5000

12000

19000

29000

39000

55000

65000

80000

90000

95000

100000

102000

BCWS

EVA Chart

500050005000

120001100012500

190001750019000

290002620029000

390003500039000

550004900055000

650005600065000

800003783437834

900003786537865

950003789537895

1000003792637926

1020003795637956

Project is:


BCWS

BCWP

ACWP

Typical Chart

90008640

1800017280

2700025920

3600034560

4500043200

5400051840

6300060480

7200037834

8100037865

9000037895

9900037926

10800037956

Projected

Actual

Typical Data

1/1/032/1/033/1/034/1/035/1/036/1/037/1/038/1/039/1/0310/1/0311/1/0312/1/03

Projected900018000270003600045000540006300072000810009000099000108000

Actual8640172802592034560432005184060480

Factor0.96

EVA Data

1/1/032/1/033/1/034/1/035/1/036/1/037/1/038/1/039/1/0310/1/0311/1/0312/1/03

BCWS5000120001900029000390005500065000800009000095000100000102000

BCWP5000110001750026200350004900056000

ACWP5000125001900029000390005500065000

Schedule Variance0-1000-1500-2800-4000-6000-9000

Sched. Var. %0.0%-8.3%-7.9%-9.7%-10.3%-10.9%-13.8%

Schedule Perf. Index1.0000.9170.9210.9030.8970.8910.862

Cost Variance0-1500-1500-2800-4000-6000-9000

Cost Var. %0.0%-13.6%-8.6%-10.7%-11.4%-12.2%-16.1%

Cost Perf. Index1.0000.8800.9210.9030.8970.8910.8621.161

EAC 1

VAC 1

VAC % 1

EAC 2

Project is:


EVA Data

BCWS

*Earned Value Definitions (cont.)ACWP: Actual Cost of Work Performed

Cost incurred to accomplish the work that has been done to date.

*ACWP - Actual Cost of Work Performed

Chart6

50005000

1100012500

1750019600

2620029900

3500039900

4900056000

3780337803

3783437834

3786537865

3789537895

3792637926

3795637956

BCWP

ACWP

EVA Chart

500050005000

120001100012500

190001750019600

290002620029900

390003500039900

550004900056000

650003780337803

800003783437834

900003786537865

950003789537895

1000003792637926

1020003795637956

Project is:


BCWS

BCWP

ACWP

Typical Chart

90008640

1800017280

2700025920

3600034560

4500043200

5400051840

6300060480

7200037834

8100037865

9000037895

9900037926

10800037956

Projected

Actual

Typical Data

1/1/032/1/033/1/034/1/035/1/036/1/037/1/038/1/039/1/0310/1/0311/1/0312/1/03

Projected900018000270003600045000540006300072000810009000099000108000

Actual8640172802592034560432005184060480

Factor0.96

ACWP

1/1/032/1/033/1/034/1/035/1/036/1/037/1/038/1/039/1/0310/1/0311/1/0312/1/03

BCWP50001100017500262003500049000

ACWP50001250019600299003990056000

ACWP

BCWP

ACWP

BCWP

1/1/032/1/033/1/034/1/035/1/036/1/037/1/038/1/039/1/0310/1/0311/1/0312/1/03

BCWP50001200019000290003900055000

BCWP

BCWP

BCWS

1/1/032/1/033/1/034/1/035/1/036/1/037/1/038/1/039/1/0310/1/0311/1/0312/1/03

BCWS5000120001900029000390005500065000800009000095000100000102000

BCWS

BCWS

EVA Data

1/1/032/1/033/1/034/1/035/1/036/1/037/1/038/1/039/1/0310/1/0311/1/0312/1/03

BCWS5000120001900029000390005500065000800009000095000100000102000

BCWP50001100017500262003500049000

ACWP50001250019600299003990056000

Schedule Variance0-1000-1500-2800-4000-6000

Sched. Var. %0.0%-8.3%-7.9%-9.7%-10.3%-10.9%

Schedule Perf. Index1.0000.9170.9210.9030.8970.891

Cost Variance0-1500-2100-3700-4900-7000

Cost Var. %0.0%-13.6%-12.0%-14.1%-14.0%-14.3%

Cost Perf. Index1.0000.8800.8930.8760.8770.875

EAC 1

VAC 1

VAC % 1

EAC 2

Project is:


*Earned Value Definitions (cont.)BCWP: Budgeted Cost of Work PerformedThe planned (not actual) cost to complete the work that has been done.

*BCWP - Budgeted Cost of Work Performed

Chart2

50005000

1100012000

1750019000

2620029000

3500039000

4900055000

37803

37834

37865

37895

37926

37956

BCWP

BCWS

EVA Chart

500050005000

120001100012500

190001750019600

290002620029900

390003500039900

550004900056000

650003780337803

800003783437834

900003786537865

950003789537895

1000003792637926

1020003795637956

Project is:


BCWS

BCWP

ACWP

Typical Chart

90008640

1800017280

2700025920

3600034560

4500043200

5400051840

6300060480

7200037834

8100037865

9000037895

9900037926

10800037956

Projected

Actual

Typical Data

1/1/032/1/033/1/034/1/035/1/036/1/037/1/038/1/039/1/0310/1/0311/1/0312/1/03

Projected900018000270003600045000540006300072000810009000099000108000

Actual8640172802592034560432005184060480

Factor0.96

ACWP

1/1/032/1/033/1/034/1/035/1/036/1/037/1/038/1/039/1/0310/1/0311/1/0312/1/03

BCWP50001100017500262003500049000

ACWP50001250019600299003990056000

ACWP

BCWP

ACWP

BCWP

1/1/032/1/033/1/034/1/035/1/036/1/037/1/038/1/039/1/0310/1/0311/1/0312/1/03

BCWP50001100017500262003500049000

BCWS50001200019000290003900055000

BCWP

BCWP

BCWS

BCWS

1/1/032/1/033/1/034/1/035/1/036/1/037/1/038/1/039/1/0310/1/0311/1/0312/1/03

BCWS5000120001900029000390005500065000800009000095000100000102000

BCWS

BCWS

EVA Data

1/1/032/1/033/1/034/1/035/1/036/1/037/1/038/1/039/1/0310/1/0311/1/0312/1/03

BCWS5000120001900029000390005500065000800009000095000100000102000

BCWP50001100017500262003500049000

ACWP50001250019600299003990056000


Sched. Var. %0.0%-8.3%-7.9%-9.7%-10.3%-10.9%


Cost Variance0-1500-2100-3700-4900-7000

Cost Var. %0.0%-13.6%-12.0%-14.1%-14.0%-14.3%

Cost Perf. Index1.0000.8800.8930.8760.8770.875

EAC 1

VAC 1

VAC % 1

EAC 2

Project is:


*The Whole Story

Chart4

500050005000

120001100012500

190001750019600

290002620029900

390003500039900

550004900056000

650003780337803

800003783437834

900003786537865

950003789537895

1000003792637926

1020003795637956

BCWS

BCWP

ACWP

EVA Chart

500050005000

120001100012500

190001750019600

290002620029900

390003500039900

550004900056000

650003780337803

800003783437834

900003786537865

950003789537895

1000003792637926

1020003795637956

Project is:


BCWS

BCWP

ACWP

Typical Chart

90008640

1800017280

2700025920

3600034560

4500043200

5400051840

6300060480

7200037834

8100037865

9000037895

9900037926

10800037956

Projected

Actual

Typical Data

1/1/032/1/033/1/034/1/035/1/036/1/037/1/038/1/039/1/0310/1/0311/1/0312/1/03

Projected900018000270003600045000540006300072000810009000099000108000

Actual8640172802592034560432005184060480

Factor0.96

Combined Chart

1/1/032/1/033/1/034/1/035/1/036/1/037/1/038/1/039/1/0310/1/0311/1/0312/1/03

BCWS5000120001900029000390005500065000800009000095000100000102000

BCWP50001100017500262003500049000

ACWP50001250019600299003990056000

Combined Chart

BCWS

BCWP

ACWP

ACWP

1/1/032/1/033/1/034/1/035/1/036/1/037/1/038/1/039/1/0310/1/0311/1/0312/1/03

BCWP50001100017500262003500049000

ACWP50001250019600299003990056000

ACWP

BCWP

ACWP

BCWP

1/1/032/1/033/1/034/1/035/1/036/1/037/1/038/1/039/1/0310/1/0311/1/0312/1/03

BCWP50001100017500262003500049000

BCWS50001200019000290003900055000

BCWP

BCWP

BCWS

BCWS

1/1/032/1/033/1/034/1/035/1/036/1/037/1/038/1/039/1/0310/1/0311/1/0312/1/03

BCWS5000120001900029000390005500065000800009000095000100000102000

BCWS

BCWS

EVA Data

1/1/032/1/033/1/034/1/035/1/036/1/037/1/038/1/039/1/0310/1/0311/1/0312/1/03

BCWS5000120001900029000390005500065000800009000095000100000102000

BCWP50001100017500262003500049000

ACWP50001250019600299003990056000


Sched. Var. %0.0%-8.3%-7.9%-9.7%-10.3%-10.9%


Cost Variance0-1500-2100-3700-4900-7000

Cost Var. %0.0%-13.6%-12.0%-14.1%-14.0%-14.3%

Cost Perf. Index1.0000.8800.8930.8760.8770.875

EAC 1

VAC 1

VAC % 1

EAC 2

Project is:


*Some Derived MetricsSV: Schedule Variance (BCWP-BCWS)A comparison of amount of work performed during a given period of time to what was scheduled to be performed.A negative variance means the project is behind schedule

CV: Cost Variance (BCWP-ACWP)A comparison of the budgeted cost of work performed with actual cost.A negative variance means the project is over budget.

*Schedule Variance & Cost VarianceSchedule Variance = BCWP-BCWS

$49,000- 55,000SV = - $ 6,000

Cost Variance = BCWP-ACWP

$49,000 56,000CV = - $7,000

*SPI: Schedule Performance IndexSPI=BCWP/BCWSSPI

*Performance MetricsSPI: BCWP/BCWS49,000/55,000 = 0.891

CPI: BCWP/ACWP49,000/56000 = 0.875

CSI: SPI x CPI.891 x .875 = 0.780

*Making ProjectionsOnce a project is 10% complete, theoverrun at completion will not be lessthan the current overrun.

Once a project is 20% complete,the CPI does not vary from its currentvalue by morethan 10%.

The CPI and SPI are statistically accurate indicators of final cost results.

Source: Defense Acquisition University

*Making ProjectionsToday

Chart5

500050005000

120001100012500

190001750019600

290002620029900

390003500039900

550004900056000

650005791566188.5714285714

800007128081462.8571428571

900008019091645.7142857143

950008464596737.1428571429

10000089100101828.571428571

10200090882103865.142857143

BCWS

BCWP

ACWP

EVA Chart

500050005000

120001100012500

190001750019600

290002620029900

390003500039900

550004900056000

650003780337803

800003783437834

900003786537865

950003789537895

1000003792637926

1020003795637956

Project is:


BCWS

BCWP

ACWP

Typical Chart

90008640

1800017280

2700025920

3600034560

4500043200

5400051840

6300060480

7200037834

8100037865

9000037895

9900037926

10800037956

Projected

Actual

Typical Data

1/1/032/1/033/1/034/1/035/1/036/1/037/1/038/1/039/1/0310/1/0311/1/0312/1/03

Projected900018000270003600045000540006300072000810009000099000108000

Actual8640172802592034560432005184060480

Factor0.96

Projections

1/1/032/1/033/1/034/1/035/1/036/1/037/1/038/1/039/1/0310/1/0311/1/0312/1/03

BCWS5000120001900029000390005500065000800009000095000100000102000

BCWP50001100017500262003500049000579157128080190846458910090882

ACWP5000125001960029900399005600066189814639164696737101829103865

1.0000.9600.9690.9700.9770.9820.9820.9820.9820.9820.9820.982

CPI0.875

SPI0.8910.891

CSI0.7796250.875

Projections

BCWS

BCWP

ACWP

Combined Chart

1/1/032/1/033/1/034/1/035/1/036/1/037/1/038/1/039/1/0310/1/0311/1/0312/1/03

BCWS5000120001900029000390005500065000800009000095000100000102000

BCWP50001100017500262003500049000

ACWP50001250019600299003990056000

Combined Chart

BCWS

BCWP

ACWP

ACWP

1/1/032/1/033/1/034/1/035/1/036/1/037/1/038/1/039/1/0310/1/0311/1/0312/1/03

BCWP50001100017500262003500049000

ACWP50001250019600299003990056000

ACWP

BCWP

ACWP

BCWP

1/1/032/1/033/1/034/1/035/1/036/1/037/1/038/1/039/1/0310/1/0311/1/0312/1/03

BCWP50001100017500262003500049000

BCWS50001200019000290003900055000

BCWP

BCWP

BCWS

BCWS

1/1/032/1/033/1/034/1/035/1/036/1/037/1/038/1/039/1/0310/1/0311/1/0312/1/03

BCWS5000120001900029000390005500065000800009000095000100000102000

BCWS

BCWS

EVA Data

1/1/032/1/033/1/034/1/035/1/036/1/037/1/038/1/039/1/0310/1/0311/1/0312/1/03

BCWS5000120001900029000390005500065000800009000095000100000102000

BCWP50001100017500262003500049000

ACWP50001250019600299003990056000


Sched. Var. %0.0%-8.3%-7.9%-9.7%-10.3%-10.9%


Cost Variance0-1500-2100-3700-4900-7000

Cost Var. %0.0%-13.6%-12.0%-14.1%-14.0%-14.3%

Cost Perf. Index1.0000.8800.8930.8760.8770.875

EAC 1

VAC 1

VAC % 1

EAC 2

Project is:


*Estimate to CompleteToday

Chart1

500050005000

120001100012500

190001750019600

290002620029900

390003500039900

550004900056000

650005791566188.5714285714

800007128081462.8571428571

900008019091645.7142857143

950008464596737.1428571429

10000089100101828.571428571

10200090882103865.142857143

10200095337108956.571428571

10200099792114048

102000101999.898116571.312

BCWS

BCWP

ACWP

116,571

EVA Chart

500050005000

120001100012500

190001750019600

290002620029900

390003500039900

550004900056000

650003780337803

800003783437834

900003786537865

950003789537895

1000003792637926

1020003795637956

Project is:


BCWS

BCWP

ACWP

Typical Chart

90008640

1800017280

2700025920

3600034560

4500043200

5400051840

6300060480

7200037834

8100037865

9000037895

9900037926

10800037956

Projected

Actual

Typical Data

1/1/032/1/033/1/034/1/035/1/036/1/037/1/038/1/039/1/0310/1/0311/1/0312/1/03

Projected900018000270003600045000540006300072000810009000099000108000

Actual8640172802592034560432005184060480

Factor0.96

Projections

1/1/032/1/033/1/034/1/035/1/036/1/037/1/038/1/039/1/0310/1/0311/1/0312/1/031/1/042/1/043/1/044/1/045/1/046/1/047/1/048/1/049/1/04

BCWS5000120001900029000390005500065000800009000095000100000102000102000102000102000107000112000117000122000127000132000

BCWP5000110001750026200350004900057915712808019084645891009088295337997921020009533799792104247108702113157117612

ACWP5000125001960029900399005600066189814639164696737101829103865108957114048116571108957114048119139124231129322134414

1.0000.9600.9690.9700.9770.9820.9820.9820.9820.9820.9820.9820.9360.8940.8750.9820.9820.9820.9820.9820.982

Actual BCWS107000112000114478

CPI0.875

SPI0.8910.891

CSI0.7796250.875

Projections

BCWS

BCWP

ACWP

Combined Chart

BCWS

BCWP

ACWP

116,571

ACWP

1/1/032/1/033/1/034/1/035/1/036/1/037/1/038/1/039/1/0310/1/0311/1/0312/1/03

BCWS5000120001900029000390005500065000800009000095000100000102000

BCWP50001100017500262003500049000

ACWP50001250019600299003990056000

ACWP

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

BCWS

BCWP

ACWP

BCWP

1/1/032/1/033/1/034/1/035/1/036/1/037/1/038/1/039/1/0310/1/0311/1/0312/1/03

BCWP50001100017500262003500049000

ACWP50001250019600299003990056000

BCWP

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

BCWP

ACWP

BCWS

1/1/032/1/033/1/034/1/035/1/036/1/037/1/038/1/039/1/0310/1/0311/1/0312/1/03

BCWP50001100017500262003500049000

BCWS50001200019000290003900055000

BCWS

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

BCWP

BCWS

EVA Data

1/1/032/1/033/1/034/1/035/1/036/1/037/1/038/1/039/1/0310/1/0311/1/0312/1/03

BCWS5000120001900029000390005500065000800009000095000100000102000

EVA Data

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

BCWS

1/1/032/1/033/1/034/1/035/1/036/1/037/1/038/1/039/1/0310/1/0311/1/0312/1/03

BCWS5000120001900029000390005500065000800009000095000100000102000

BCWP50001100017500262003500049000

ACWP50001250019600299003990056000


Sched. Var. %0.0%-8.3%-7.9%-9.7%-10.3%-10.9%


Cost Variance0-1500-2100-3700-4900-7000

Cost Var. %0.0%-13.6%-12.0%-14.1%-14.0%-14.3%

Cost Perf. Index1.0000.8800.8930.8760.8770.875

EAC 1

VAC 1

VAC % 1

EAC 2

Project is:


*A New CriteriaActivities earn value as they are completed.The value earned is the WBS budgeted cost of the activity completed to date.

*Value of Earned ValueSchedule Status ReportingCost Status ReportingForecasting

*But How Do I Do All This Stuff ?With an Earned Value Management System

*A-11, Part 7 Requires an EVMS . . . based on ANSI/EIA Standard 748

And what does that mean?

ANSI/EIA 748 provides a list of guidelinesOrganizationPlanning, Scheduling, and BudgetingAccounting ConsiderationsAnalysis and Management ReportsRevisions and Data Maintenance

But, ANSI/EIA 748 doesnt identify approved systems

*A-11, Part 7 Requires an EVMSSo where do I get one?Buy a prepackaged one. (Lot of em around)Make your own.Microsoft ProjectMicrosoft Excel

Or it could be as simple as this:

*Requirements of Earned ValueProper WBS DesignBaseline Budget Control Accounts Baseline ScheduleWork measurement by Control Accountwork-hours, dollars, units, etc.Good Project Management Practices

*Shortcomings of Earned ValueQuantifying/measuring work progress can be difficult.Time required for data measurement, input, and manipulation can be considerable.

*SummaryEVA & EVMS will help reduce guesswork in:Measuring performanceforecastingNeed to get beyond misleading measures of progress.Reasons to use EVA and EVMS:Good project management practiceOMB requirementIncorporate into contracts

*Earned Value Resourceshttp://www.pmi.org/

http://www.acq.osd.mil/pm/

ANSI/EIA 748 is available from:Global Engineering Documents800-854-7179

*Some Compliant SystemsWelcom Cobra http://www.welcom.com/Schedulemakerhttp://www.schedulemaker.com/Planisware OPX2http://www.planisware.com/

RiskTrakhttp://www.risktrak.com/index.htmWinsighthttp://www.cs-solutions.comPrimavera Systemshttp://www.primavera.com

*Earned Value AnalysisQuestions/Discussion

(2) Those three measurements are:time expiredwork accomplishedmoney spent

(2) Thus the name Earned Value; you can actually assign a VALUE to the project at a particular timeGIPRA (performance measures): clearly define missions, set realistic goals, and report on accomplishments.

FASA Said you had to meet 90% of your goals (cost, schedule, and performance)

Clinger-Cohen Act - Tried to ensure that IT investments aligned with mission goals and that they are properly justified(also tried to ensure that systems are secure)

Change to A-11 in July 2002 (A real shot across the bow)Was developed by DoD (As are many very specific metrical techniques.You know, they like for everybody to be:walking in stepcounting cadence togethercalling out the same number,at the same time.

Was in response to a need to keep track of very large and very complex contracts.Were looking at a year-long project; Comparing our budget with our expenditures,Complete through about July, and we dont appear to be TOO far off track.

BUT, what we dont know is:How much WORK have we gotten done?How tough - in terms of BOTH time and money - will it be to get back on track?The more complex the project, the more difficult it is to tell where you are.

The WBS should describeWhat is to be doneWhen it is to be completedHow much it will costWBS needs to be broken down into manageable, meaningful pieces.

The danger here is in getting them too small.

The Work Package needs to be of the size that it can be handed off to a task manager.

Too large and you have multiple people responsible for the work.Too small and the program manager winds up micro-managing everything.

The accompanying narrative is really an SOW or Statement of Work.

If you get into EVA in depth, you may here about a CAP.

Previously called Cost Account Plan.

Thats probably the shortest course on Work Breakdown Structure youll ever see.

(And maybe the longest youll ever want to see.)OK, lets look at some real Earned Value stuff.The Work Package needs to be of the size that it can be handed off to a task manager.

Too large and you have multiple people responsible for the work.Too small and the program manager winds up micro-managing everything.

The accompanying narrative is really an SOW or Statement of Work.Sort of looks like the planned line doesnt it?

At this point, thats all it is. Were looking at how we expect to perform for the year.This is simply the actual cost to date.And heres that dreaded actual vs. planned situation.

Well the project is somewhat over cost.Somewhat could have a lot of different meanings.

So far weve spent 56K when we should have spent 49K.

OK, were 7K over budget, is that bad? Well, lets find out how bad.The next factor is BCWP and this is the factor that rounds out EVA and makes it possible to capture the full picture of where the project stands.

Note that this is the cost of the work performed and,it is the budgeted amount, not the actual amount.

SO, were about half-way through the year now, and you can see that the Budgeted cost of Work Performed is less than the Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled.What does this mean?

It doesnt mean that weve spent less than we planned.Your looking at the cost of what should have been done. The project is behind schedule.

The significance of this situation becomes a lot clearer when you combine cost performance with schedule performance on one chart.And heres the full picture.The project is over budget by a thousand dollars.Weve only gotten 49 thousand dollars worth of work down. And what does that mean? - - - (were behind schedule.)

So what does all this mean?

Well, pay particular attention to the comparison of ACWP compared to BCWP. Oh Boy! Some derived metrics you were all waiting for some of those, werent you?

Cost Variance and Schedule Variance are simply arithmetic differences of where we are and where we should be.Simple arithmetic.

Weve accomplished $6,000 worth of output less than we should have

And were $7,000 over budget

We need some more derived metrics.Well, we know were behind schedule and over cost,and we know exactly much for each one, but so what?

Well, now we can begin to integrate these two pieces of information and get an overall picture.

The Performance Indices are really just a way of calculating, on a percentage basis, where we are.SPICPI

But now, when we combine the two, the percentage figure becomes more significant.

Too many numbers!

OK, were performing at about 89% of where we should be on performance,our cost performance is a little worse,

But look at the impact when you combine the two!

What do we do now? Unlike the stock market, in the program management world,Past Performance is an indicator of future results.

Lets take a look at what this would mean for our sample project.We can expect to finish the year having spent a bit more than was budgeted.

But look at the ACWP curve: We have only delivered 89% of the productbut weve spent everything we had, plus more.

Final line? Without a change in performance, we would have to spend an additional 28% of our budget to complete the job.

Why 28% when were only 11% behind? Because our Cost/Schedule Index says we will only be able to perform to a 78% level, and well continue to fall behind.Prepackaged EVMS may not fit in terms oflevel of WBStask description (SOW)flexibility for a variety of projects

Microsoft Project 2002 purported to support EVA

Calculations are simple in and of themselves.You need the WBS structure to be able to quantify output (what is the deliverable?)

Baselines provide a measuring stick.

And if there are not good management practices in place, it wont work.OMB requirements are going to be strongly focused on Project Management and Performance Measurement

But Earned Value makes sense without OMBs motivation

OMBs requirement applies specifically to contractors.