The Rising Tide in Boston: Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding due to Climate Change Ellen M. Douglas 1 , Paul H. Kirshen 2 and Chris Watson 1 1 Environmental, Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Massachusetts, Boston 2 Battelle Institute, Lexington, MA Boston Harbor Sea Level Rise Forum November 9-10, 2010 This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 444 Castro Street, Suite 900, Mountain View, California, 94041, USA.
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The Rising Tide in Boston: Sea Level
Rise and Coastal Flooding due to
Climate Change
Ellen M. Douglas1, Paul H. Kirshen2
and Chris Watson1
1Environmental, Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Massachusetts, Boston2Battelle Institute, Lexington, MA
Boston Harbor Sea Level Rise Forum
November 9-10, 2010This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License.
To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 444 Castro Street, Suite 900, Mountain View, California, 94041, USA.
Boston Harbor Sea Level Rise Forum
November 9-10, 2010
Planning Committee Members
Deborah Hadden, Massport, and Jack Wiggin, Urban Harbors Institute, UMass Boston-Co-Chairs
Richard Dimino, A Better City
Jamie Fay, Fort Point Associates
Jim Hunt, City of Boston Environmental & Energy Services
Julia Knisel, MA Office of Coastal Zone Management
Richard McGuinness, Boston Redevelopment Authority
Charles Norris, Norris and Norris
Scott Rickards, Equity Office Properties
Bud Ris, New England Aquarium
Carl Spector, City of Boston Environment Department
John Sullivan, Boston Water and Sewer Commission
Ellen Douglas and Chris Watson, UMass Boston
Paul Kirshen, Battelle Institute
Vivien Li and Patrice Todisco, The Boston Harbor Association
The Boston Harbor Association thanks the Barr Foundation for their generous support of the Forum and follow up meetings.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) finds that:
• it is “unequivocal” that Earth’s climate is
warming
• it is “very likely” that human emission have
caused most of the observed increase in
global averaged temperature
Source: IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis—Summary for Policymakers.
Climate change is already underway.
Souce: IPCC (2007)
How is our planet responding?
Souce: IPCC (2007)
How is our planet responding?
Ocean Heat Content
Souce: IPCC (2007)
How is our planet responding?
What causes sea level rise?
The most recent SLR projections
Source: Vermeer, M. and S. Rahmstorf, 2009. PNAS, 106:21527-21532
The most recent SLR projections
Source: Vermeer, M. and S. Rahmstorf, 2009. PNAS, 106:21527-21532
Possible bi-monthly flooding due to astronomically high tides
More of the above
Storm surge reaches further inland
Flooding in areas not flooded before
Low tide
High tide
Low tide
High tide
WICKED high tide
Low tide with SLR
High tide with SLR
WICKED high tide plus SLR…uh-oh!
Storm surge at low tide
Storm surge at high tide
Storm surge at WICKED high tide
Storm surge at WHT with SLR
Seem unbelievable?Long Wharf & Central Wharf, June 2009 –High Tide
Mapping of potential flooding in Boston
Potential flooding at High Tide with
2.5 ft SLR (lower range of possibility)
5 ft SLR (upper range of possibility)
Mapping of potential flooding in Boston
Potential flooding at High Tide with
2.5 ft SLR (lower range of possibility)
5 ft SLR (upper range of possibility)
Potential flooding due to extreme coastal storm (5 ft surge) on top of SLR
Mapping of potential flooding in Boston
Potential flooding at High Tide with
2.5 ft SLR (lower range of possibility)
5 ft SLR (upper range of possibility)
Potential flooding due to extreme coastal storm (5 ft surge) on top of SLR
All maps show flooding at WHT
Mapping of potential flooding in Boston
Potential flooding at High Tide with
2.5 ft SLR (lower range of possibility)
5 ft SLR (upper range of possibility)
Potential flooding due to extreme coastal storm (5 ft surge) on top of SLR
All maps show flooding at WHT.
Mapping of potential flooding in Boston
Potential flooding at High Tide with
2.5 ft SLR (lower range of possibility)
5 ft SLR (upper range of possibility)
Potential flooding due to extreme coastal storm (5 ft surge) on top of SLR
All maps show flooding at WHT.
Mapping of potential flooding in Boston
Potential flooding at High Tide with
2.5 ft SLR (lower range of possibility)
5 ft SLR (upper range of possibility)
Potential flooding due to extreme coastal storm (5 ft surge) on top of SLR
All maps show flooding at WHT.
Boston Circa 1890
Boston with 2.5 ft of SLR
Boston with 5 ft of SLR
Boston with 2.5 ft of SLR
2.5 ft of SLR + 5 ft surge
2.5 ft SLR
5 ft SLR
2.5 ft SLR+
5 ft surge
2.5 ft SLR
5 ft SLR
2.5 ft SLR+
5 ft surge
2.5 ft SLR
5 ft SLR
2.5 ft SLR +
5 ft surge
What can we do about this?
Mitigation Reducing our carbon emissions through
energy efficiency, renewable energy and conservation
What can we do about this?
Mitigation Reducing our carbon emissions through
energy efficiency, renewable energy and conservation
Adaptation Until mid-century, impacts of on-going
climate change are inevitable - we need to do things now to prevent future damage
Why Adaptation ?
Reduce Vulnerability
“Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.” (IPCC 2007)
Forms of Adaptation
Reactive
Proactive
Spontaneous
Must be integrated
Research shows that ‘proactive’ is generally
most effective
General Proactive Adaptation Responses
Do Nothing
Accommodate
Protect
Retreat
A mix of actions may be taken over space and time
Approach to Adaptation PlanningOvercoming the Challenges of Uncertainty
Portfolio Approach
A stakeholder-driven mix of the above responses in different places throughout the Harbor, and over different time periods
Flexible, Adjustable, and Robust strategies
Function well no matter what climate change occurs and can be adjusted as we learn more
Evaluated using multiple criteria
Social, economic, environmental ….
Integrated with sustainability planning
Respond to other pressures on the region and the need for GHG mitigation
No-regrets and co-benefits actions
Integrates protection of ecosystem services with adaptation of human systems
Approach to Adaptation PlanningOvercoming the Challenges of Uncertainty
Flexibility
Timing of Actions
Changing Actions
Adjustable Infrastructure
Safeguarding the Environment
Safeguarding Land for Future Options
Coordination with Other Infrastructure Projects
Two basic types of actions
Here and Now
For new projects and presently threatened areas
Prepare and Monitor
A flexible plan is developed now and implementation options are preserved
Actions taken when a trigger point is reached based upon a monitoring system
Questions for Boston Harbor
What are the key requirements for a possible adaptation plan for the Harbor?
How can we turn adaptation into an opportunity to promote sustainable social, economic and environmental conditions in the Harbor?
How can we make the Harbor an even more desirable destination to live and work in than it is already?