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The Rising Tide in Boston: Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding due to Climate Change Ellen M. Douglas 1 , Paul H. Kirshen 2 and Chris Watson 1 1 Environmental, Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Massachusetts, Boston 2 Battelle Institute, Lexington, MA Boston Harbor Sea Level Rise Forum November 9-10, 2010 This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 444 Castro Street, Suite 900, Mountain View, California, 94041, USA.
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Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

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Page 1: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

The Rising Tide in Boston: Sea Level

Rise and Coastal Flooding due to

Climate Change

Ellen M. Douglas1, Paul H. Kirshen2

and Chris Watson1

1Environmental, Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Massachusetts, Boston2Battelle Institute, Lexington, MA

Boston Harbor Sea Level Rise Forum

November 9-10, 2010This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License.

To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 444 Castro Street, Suite 900, Mountain View, California, 94041, USA.

Page 2: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

Boston Harbor Sea Level Rise Forum

November 9-10, 2010

Planning Committee Members

Deborah Hadden, Massport, and Jack Wiggin, Urban Harbors Institute, UMass Boston-Co-Chairs

Richard Dimino, A Better City

Jamie Fay, Fort Point Associates

Jim Hunt, City of Boston Environmental & Energy Services

Julia Knisel, MA Office of Coastal Zone Management

Richard McGuinness, Boston Redevelopment Authority

Charles Norris, Norris and Norris

Scott Rickards, Equity Office Properties

Bud Ris, New England Aquarium

Carl Spector, City of Boston Environment Department

John Sullivan, Boston Water and Sewer Commission

Ellen Douglas and Chris Watson, UMass Boston

Paul Kirshen, Battelle Institute

Vivien Li and Patrice Todisco, The Boston Harbor Association

The Boston Harbor Association thanks the Barr Foundation for their generous support of the Forum and follow up meetings.

Page 3: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC) finds that:

• it is “unequivocal” that Earth’s climate is

warming

• it is “very likely” that human emission have

caused most of the observed increase in

global averaged temperature

Source: IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis—Summary for Policymakers.

Climate change is already underway.

Page 4: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

Souce: IPCC (2007)

How is our planet responding?

Page 5: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

Souce: IPCC (2007)

How is our planet responding?

Ocean Heat Content

Page 6: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

Souce: IPCC (2007)

How is our planet responding?

Page 7: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

What causes sea level rise?

Page 8: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

The most recent SLR projections

Source: Vermeer, M. and S. Rahmstorf, 2009. PNAS, 106:21527-21532

Page 9: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

The most recent SLR projections

Source: Vermeer, M. and S. Rahmstorf, 2009. PNAS, 106:21527-21532

5 ft

2.5 ft

Page 10: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

So what does this mean for Boston?

Increases in daily tide heights

Affects basements, sewers, piers, beaches, wetlands, low-lying roads

Page 11: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

So what does this mean for Boston?

Increases in daily tide heights

Affects basements, sewers, piers, beaches, wetlands, low-lying roads

Possible bi-monthly flooding due to astronomically high tides

More of the above

Page 12: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

So what does this mean for Boston?

Increases in daily tide heights

Affects basements, sewers, piers, beaches, wetlands, low-lying roads

Possible bi-monthly flooding due to astronomically high tides

More of the above

Storm surge reaches further inland

Flooding in areas not flooded before

Page 13: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

Low tide

Page 14: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

High tide

Page 15: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

Low tide

Page 16: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

High tide

Page 17: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

WICKED high tide

Page 18: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

Low tide with SLR

Page 19: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

High tide with SLR

Page 20: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

WICKED high tide plus SLR…uh-oh!

Page 21: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

Storm surge at low tide

Page 22: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

Storm surge at high tide

Page 23: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

Storm surge at WICKED high tide

Page 24: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

Storm surge at WHT with SLR

Page 25: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

Seem unbelievable?Long Wharf & Central Wharf, June 2009 –High Tide

Page 26: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

Mapping of potential flooding in Boston

Potential flooding at High Tide with

2.5 ft SLR (lower range of possibility)

5 ft SLR (upper range of possibility)

Page 27: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

Mapping of potential flooding in Boston

Potential flooding at High Tide with

2.5 ft SLR (lower range of possibility)

5 ft SLR (upper range of possibility)

Potential flooding due to extreme coastal storm (5 ft surge) on top of SLR

Page 28: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

Mapping of potential flooding in Boston

Potential flooding at High Tide with

2.5 ft SLR (lower range of possibility)

5 ft SLR (upper range of possibility)

Potential flooding due to extreme coastal storm (5 ft surge) on top of SLR

All maps show flooding at WHT

Page 29: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

Mapping of potential flooding in Boston

Potential flooding at High Tide with

2.5 ft SLR (lower range of possibility)

5 ft SLR (upper range of possibility)

Potential flooding due to extreme coastal storm (5 ft surge) on top of SLR

All maps show flooding at WHT.

Page 30: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

Mapping of potential flooding in Boston

Potential flooding at High Tide with

2.5 ft SLR (lower range of possibility)

5 ft SLR (upper range of possibility)

Potential flooding due to extreme coastal storm (5 ft surge) on top of SLR

All maps show flooding at WHT.

Page 31: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

Mapping of potential flooding in Boston

Potential flooding at High Tide with

2.5 ft SLR (lower range of possibility)

5 ft SLR (upper range of possibility)

Potential flooding due to extreme coastal storm (5 ft surge) on top of SLR

All maps show flooding at WHT.

Page 32: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

Boston Circa 1890

Page 33: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

Boston with 2.5 ft of SLR

Page 34: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

Boston with 5 ft of SLR

Page 35: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

Boston with 2.5 ft of SLR

Page 36: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

2.5 ft of SLR + 5 ft surge

Page 37: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728
Page 38: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

2.5 ft SLR

Page 39: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

5 ft SLR

Page 40: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

2.5 ft SLR+

5 ft surge

Page 41: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

2.5 ft SLR

Page 42: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

5 ft SLR

Page 43: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

2.5 ft SLR+

5 ft surge

Page 44: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

2.5 ft SLR

Page 45: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

5 ft SLR

Page 46: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

2.5 ft SLR +

5 ft surge

Page 47: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

What can we do about this?

Mitigation Reducing our carbon emissions through

energy efficiency, renewable energy and conservation

Page 48: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

What can we do about this?

Mitigation Reducing our carbon emissions through

energy efficiency, renewable energy and conservation

Adaptation Until mid-century, impacts of on-going

climate change are inevitable - we need to do things now to prevent future damage

Page 49: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

Why Adaptation ?

Reduce Vulnerability

“Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.” (IPCC 2007)

Page 50: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

Forms of Adaptation

Reactive

Proactive

Spontaneous

Must be integrated

Research shows that ‘proactive’ is generally

most effective

Page 51: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

General Proactive Adaptation Responses

Do Nothing

Accommodate

Protect

Retreat

A mix of actions may be taken over space and time

Page 52: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

Approach to Adaptation PlanningOvercoming the Challenges of Uncertainty

Portfolio Approach

A stakeholder-driven mix of the above responses in different places throughout the Harbor, and over different time periods

Flexible, Adjustable, and Robust strategies

Function well no matter what climate change occurs and can be adjusted as we learn more

Page 53: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

Evaluated using multiple criteria

Social, economic, environmental ….

Integrated with sustainability planning

Respond to other pressures on the region and the need for GHG mitigation

No-regrets and co-benefits actions

Integrates protection of ecosystem services with adaptation of human systems

Approach to Adaptation PlanningOvercoming the Challenges of Uncertainty

Page 54: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

Flexibility

Timing of Actions

Changing Actions

Adjustable Infrastructure

Safeguarding the Environment

Safeguarding Land for Future Options

Coordination with Other Infrastructure Projects

Page 55: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

Two basic types of actions

Here and Now

For new projects and presently threatened areas

Prepare and Monitor

A flexible plan is developed now and implementation options are preserved

Actions taken when a trigger point is reached based upon a monitoring system

Page 56: Douglas Kirshen Watson Thba Symposium Nov2010 20101728

Questions for Boston Harbor

What are the key requirements for a possible adaptation plan for the Harbor?

How can we turn adaptation into an opportunity to promote sustainable social, economic and environmental conditions in the Harbor?

How can we make the Harbor an even more desirable destination to live and work in than it is already?