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Theodore P. GerberUniversity of Wisconsin-Madison
Juan March Institute, Madrid
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` Use of internet and mobile phone technology
(SMS, Twitter) to obtain and/or disseminate
politically relevant information, exchange political
views, and/or coordinate political actions.` Distinct from internet orsocial media use assuch
` Recent phenomenon
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` New media as alternative sources of politicallyrelevant information to traditional news media
x Internet-based newssites
x Twitter
x Blogsx Advocacy web sites
x Youtube
x Informational web sites, including government-based
Particularly relevant in constrained traditional news
source environments Information dissemination vs. consumption
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` New media as technologies for coordinating
political action Big examples:social media and protest movements
x Iranian election prote
sts,summer 2009
x Arab Spring movements of 2011
x Russias free elections movement in 2011/12?
Other examples: political flash mobs, internet-based
petitions, boycotts, hotlines, etc.
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` Other uses? Election booth webcams
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` Can the distinctive dimensions of electronic
political engagement be empirically disentangled?
` What types of people do and do not engage in thedistinctive dimensions?
` How (if at all) are they associated with specific
political orientations and behaviors?
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` Standard methodologies forstudying social media
and politics are not suitable for addressing these
questions
Content analysis of the blogosphere or othersocialmedia fields in a specific national context
Social network analysis of users
`
Role forsurvey re
search
Challenge: collecting sufficiently detailed data on social
media usage for political purposes
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` Partially constrained traditional news environment No government constraints on new media orsocial network sites
` Surging rates of overall internet and social network use in recent years 50.8 million users in September 2011
Approaching 50% internet penetration
Over5 million facebook users
Growing popularity of domestic social networking sites
` Active and diverse blogosphere, with four major groupings at its core (Etling etal. 2010) Politics and PublicAffairs
x Diverse spectrum of views expressed
x Distinctively high level of cross-linking debate
Culture Regional
Instrumental (paid/commercially oriented blogs)` Culturally distinct blogging styles (Gornyi and Walker 2011)
` Information about instances of official corruption
` Rise ofAleksei Navalnyi
` Role of new social media in free election protests
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` Can the distinctive dimensions of electronic
political engagement within Rusia be empirically
disentangled?
` What types of Russians do and do not engage in
the distinctive dimensions?
` How (if at all) are they associated with specificpolitical orientations and behaviors in Russia?
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` Sponsored by Democracy International implementinga grant from USAID
` Implemented by Levada Center` Two waves of data collection
November 17-30, 2011
December 9-22
` Multi-stage clustersampling, with matched sampleallocation by SSU pre- and post-election
` Total N=2403 in 46 federal subjects` E
xtensive que
stion
sabout internet and
social mediause for political purposes, political attitudes and
behaviors, and socio-economic background
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` 26 questions in fourseparate blocs
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34%
19%
4%
2%
12%
12%
14%
21%
14%
4%
4%
10%
12%
13%
8%
6%
4%
3%
6%
7%
6%
6%
4%
4%
4%
4%
6%
5%
31%
57%
84%
87%
68%
63%
63%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
SMS on a mobile phone
Zhivoi Journal
V Kontakte
Odnoklassniki
Other websites (not email)
How often do you use the following forms of communication and
information?
Almost daily Weekly Monthly Less than once a month Never
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72%
27%
12%
9%
4%
4%
16%
22%
26%
10%
6%
6%
5%
9%
26%
7%
3%
6%
2%
6%
11%
5%
4%
4%
2%
4%
5%
4%
4%
4%
3%
32%
21%
66%
80%
76%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Television
Radio
Newpapers
Russian news websites
Foreign news websites
Blogs on the internet
How often in the last 12 months have you used the following sources to get
information about current political events?
Daily Several times per week Weekly Monthly Less than once a month Never
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5%
7%
5%
1%
2%
1%
10%
10%
8%
3%
5%
4%
6%
7%
7%
4%
5%
4%
4%
5%
5%
2%
6%
3%
5%
4%
3%
2%
5%
3%
70%
68%
72%
87%
76%
85%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Got info about political
events in your city/town
Got info about political
events elsewhere in Russia
Got info about politicalevents in other countries
Looked for people who
share your political views
Looked for new friends
Exchanged views on
political topics with other
people
How often have you used the internet for the following in the last 12
months?
Daily Several times per week Weekly Monthly Less than once a month Never
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1%
2%
1%
1%
3%
0%
1%
2%
5%
2%
3%
6%
1%
2%
2%
4%
2%
3%
6%
2%
2%
2%
4%
1%3%
5%
2%
1%
3%
4%
2%
2%
3%
3%
2%
90%
80%
92%
88%
77%
93%
93%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Posted about a political
topic on a web site
Read a blog about a
political theme
Participated in an on-line
discussion/chat about
Posted about a non-
political topic on a web site
Read a blog about a non-
political theme
Used the internet tocontact authorities
Used SMS to contact
authorities
Have you done the following in the last 12 months? If so, how often?
Daily Several times per week Weekly Monthly Less than once a month Never
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Factor Analysis of Measures of Electronic Political Engagement, Duma Election survey
Factor 1 Factor 2 Factor 3 Factor 4 Factor 5 Uniqueness
Use: SMS on a mobile phone -.059 -.058 .809 -.035 .131 .445
Use: E-mail .285 -.114 .661 .102 -.017 .264
Use: Facebook -.001 .091 .191 .687 .033 .333
Use: Zhivoi Journal -.045 .178 .071 .757 .040 .286
Use: V Kontakte .024 -.018 .718 .189 -.062 .321Use: Odnoklassniki -.046 .036 .828 .051 -.014 .298
Use: Other websites (not email) .219 -.063 .599 .167 -.093 .337
For news: Television .022 -.059 .026 -.136 .710 .470
For news: Radio -.082 .050 .100 .119 .740 .456
For news: Newpapers .103 .017 -.148 .102 .726 .419
For news: Russian news websites .788 -.144 .161 .115 .033 .230
For news: Foreign news websites .607 .036 -.066 .365 .025 .318
For news: Blogs on the internet .547 .016 .047 .389 .028 .294
Net for: Get info about political events in your city/town .934 .015 .004 -.082 .019 .169
Net for: Get info about political events elsewhere in Russia .980 -.040 .025 -.080 .002 .118
Net for: Get info about political events in other countries .952 .019 .010 -.103 .008 .143
Net for: Find people who share your political views .306 .657 .012 -.164 .043 .341
Net for: find new friends .135 .410 .519 -.286 -.003 .409
Net for: Exchange views on political topics with other people .357 .620 .049 -.179 .007 .319
Frequency: P osted about a political topic on a web site .022 .824 -.054 .142 -.008 .228
Frequency: Read a blog about a political theme .676 .215 -.111 .154 -.025 .297
Frequency: Participated in an on-line discussion/chat about politics -.024 .856 -.039 .119 -.018 .227
Frequency: Posted about a non-political topic on a web site .018 .670 .042 .210 -.059 .356
Frequency: Read a blog about a non-political theme .565 .145 .098 .124 -.065 .387
Frequency: Used the internet to contact authorities -.086 .905 -.017 .025 .029 .250
Frequency: Used SMS to contact authorities -.156 .858 -.038 .113 .016 .334
Additive Scale Label
Political
info
Political
commu-
nication
Social
network
/Live
journal
Traditio-
nal news
Scale mean .844 .279 1.077 .347 3.252
Standard Deviation 1.309 .745 1.076 .851 1.206
Range 0 to 5 0 to 5 0 to 4 0 to 4 0 to 5
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Correlations among additive scales
Webpolcom Tradnews Webnews Socnet Fablive
Webpolcom 1.000
Tradnews .087 1.000
Webnews .641 .110 1.000
Socnet .489 -.051 .701 1.000
Fablive .512 .038 .566 .597 1.000
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Regression results: measures of electronic political engagement
B rse B rse B rse B rse B rse
Age (40 to 49)Under 30 .142 ** .056 .501 ** .089 1.005 ** .060 .368 ** .060 -.454 ** .083
30 to 39 .140 ** .061 .239 ** .091 .452 ** .062 .194 ** .059 -.195 ** .082
50 to 59 -.161 ** .048 -.302 ** .085 -.335 ** .058 -.052 .054 .250 ** .082
Over 59 -.184 ** .048 -.533 ** .076 -.689 ** .052 -.147 ** .046 .326 ** .080
Education (se condary diploma)
VUZ degree .165 ** .041 .518 ** .064 .339 ** .042 .147 ** .045 .173 ** .057
Less than
Secondary -.074 ** .031 -.259 ** .051 -.263 ** .039 -.154 ** .030 -.263 ** .068
Locality (small/medium cities)
Moscow .046 .061 .785 ** .126 .374 ** .069 .547 ** .094 .295 ** .091
St.Pete . .265 ** .115 .364 ** .170 .273 ** .101 .250 ** .117 .167 .148
Other large
city-.118 ** .041 -.127 .084 -.073 .056 -.145 ** .048 -.045 .090
Rural village -.035 .034 -.133 ** .052 -.107 ** .039 -.041 .036 .067 .058
Woman -.011 .030 -.091 * .048 .070 ** .033 .001 .034 -.098 ** .048Post-election .082 ** .029 .220 ** .047 .080 ** .032 .129 ** .033 .046 .048
Income quintile (second thru fourth)
Lowest -.078 ** .034 -.180 ** .055 -.164 ** .045 -.081 ** .036 -.249 ** .079
Highest .127 ** .058 .264 ** .100 .195 ** .059 .073 .071 .037 .080
Missing .015 .043 .052 .068 .005 .046 .030 .048 .079 .065
Ethnic Russian -.247 ** .057 -.196 ** .073 -.049 .050 -.129 ** .052 -.162 ** .065
Constant .440 ** .072 .835 ** .106 .902 ** .071 .274 ** .069 3.407 ** .097
R-square .468 .135 .080.242.092
Facebook/Live
Journal use
Social media use
scale
Traditional news
sources usage
scale
Web political
information
Web political
communication
scale
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"Effects" of EPE dimensions on support for parties and institutions, based on multivariate models
Results are net of effects of age, education, gender, locality, income, pre- vs. post-duma election, and Russian ethnicity
Support for specific political parties and organizations
United
Russia KPRF LDPR Yabloko
NationalBolshevik
Party PARNAS
Webpolcom - 0 0 0 0 0
Webnews - 0 0 0 0 0
Socnet + 0 + 0 0 +
Fablive 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tradnews 0 + 0 0 0 0
Confidence in institutions and leaders
Political
parties Police
Local
gov't PMPutin
Mass
media
Pres Med-
vedev
The
Duma
The
Army
The
courts
Webpolcom 0 0 - - 0 - 0 - 0
Webnews 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0 0
Socnet + 0 + + 0 0 + 0 0Fablive 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + 0
Tradnews + 0 + + 0 + + 0 +
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"Effects" of EPE dimensions on attitudes toward diverse political issues
Results are net of effects of age, education, gender, locality, income, pre- vs. post-duma election, and Russian ethnicity
Protests are
good for
Russia
Russia on the
right course
Soviet
collapse great
catas-trophe
Pro-Stalin
scale
Agree with
"Russia for
Russians"
Webpolcom + - 0 - 0
Webnews 0 0 0 0 -
Socnet 0 0 - 0 0
Fablive 0 + + 0 0
Tradnews 0 0 + + +
Agree with
"Stop feeding
the Caucasus"
Scale of
suspicion of
foreign
influence
US is enemy
or rival
Anti-eastern
groups scale
Anti-western
groups scale
Webpolcom 0 - 0 0 +
Webnews - - + 0 0
Socnet 0 0 0 0 0
Fablive 0 0 0 0 0
Tradnews 0 + 0 0 0
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` Five different dimensions ofEPE in Russia` Correlates of engagement are intuitive
Steep negative (positive) age gradients for new (traditional)media engagement
Consistent positive education effects for all five dimensions Russian ethnicity: lower web engagement Moscow: high on all dimensions except web political
communication St.Pete: high on all except traditional news Post-Duma election: increase in new media usage Income: low income associated with low levels of all 5 forms;
high income with high web use and social networking
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` Associations ofEPE with political views Social network site usage generally not associated with
political views
Traditional newssource usage linked to more
conservative attitudes
Web-based communication generally linked with more
critical views, less nostalgia forUSSR
x but only some associations are significant
Web-based information seeking has weak andinconsistent associations with political attitudes
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` Studies of electronic political engagement can and
should carefully specify and measure its different
dimensions, both in Russia and elsewhere
` Need for fairly extensive data` To make causal claims, need richer understanding
of correlates of different dimensions in order to
identify causal effects with instrumental variables