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Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society Kathy E. Gill 18 October 2004
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Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

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Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society. Kathy E. Gill 18 October 2004. Overview. More Theory History of computing technology Networks. Quotable 1. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Page 1: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Kathy E. Gill18 October 2004

Page 2: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Overview More Theory History of computing

technology Networks

Page 3: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Quotable 1

"This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us." -- Western Union internal memo, 1876

Page 4: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Quotable 2

Who the hell wants to hear actors talk? -- H.M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927

Page 5: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Quotable 3

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." -- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

Page 6: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Quotable 4

"Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons." -- Popular Mechanics, 1949

Page 7: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Quotable 5

"640K ought to be enough for anybody." -- Bill Gates, 1981 *

Page 8: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

What is “technology”? tech-nol-o-gy 1: technical

language; 2a: applied science b: a technical method of achieving a practical purpose 3: a totality of the means employed to provide objects necessary for human sustenance and comfort

Page 9: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Technology Knowledge used to solve problems

and extend human potential Technology is about enabling

change and amplifying its direction.

Think of it as facilitating the journey not (necessarily) setting the destination.

Page 10: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Technology and Media Caves in France Paper and charcoal/ink Printing Press Telegraph et al (radio,

television) Computer mediated

communications

Page 11: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Why use a technology - demand Cognitive Needs – Desire (demand) for

information, knowledge, understanding Affective Needs – Aesthetic, pleasurable, and

emotional experiences Personal Integrative Needs – Inner-directed,

deal with credibility, confidence, stability, and status

Social Integrative Needs – Outer-directed, strengthening relationships with family, friends, the world

Escapist Needs – Desire for tension release or diversion

- Katz, Gurevitch, and Haas

Page 12: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Why use a technology - other

Availability Cost Network effects ??

Page 13: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Discussion – Peer Group 3

Chia Fang Tsai Jac De Haan Katherine K Roemer

Page 14: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Discussion – Questions Increasing capacity w/out adding

wires (telegraph). Parallels today?

Grey v Bell …. Jobs v Gates? What is today’s “railroad” sector? Price models: Bell’s renting the

phone, IBM’s renting the mainframe, software constant upgrades …

Page 15: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Rogers - Diffusion Theory Identified four main elements of an

innovation-diffusion process Innovation Social system Time Communications channels

Page 16: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Linear innovation-diffusion

The process by which an innovation is communicated through certain channels over time among the members of a social system. (Rogers, 1995, P.5).

Page 17: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Innovation An idea, practice, or object

that is perceived as new by an individual or other unit of adoption

Page 18: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Communication A process in which participants

create and share information with one another in order to reach mutual understanding (Rogers, 1995)

Page 19: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Time The adoption model follows an

“s” shape curve over time

Page 20: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Innovation-Decision Process

The mental process through which an individual passes from first knowledge to forming an attitude toward the innovation (adopt, reject)

Page 21: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Five steps Knowledge Persuasion Decision (adopt or reject) Implementation Confirmation

Page 22: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Social System A set of interrelated units that

are engaged in joint problem-solving to accomplish a common goal.

Members or units of a social system may be individuals, informal groups, organizations, and/or subsystems.

Page 23: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Critical mass (1/2)

Rogers (1995) : "the critical mass occurs at the point at which enough individuals have adopted an innovation so that the innovation's further rate of adoption becomes self-sustaining.”

Page 24: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Critical mass (2/2)

The critical mass is a social system perspective, while the dominant design is a technology perspective.

The irreversible phase may take place when not only the critical mass point is overcome but also the dominant design is brought about at least in terms of the technological innovation.

Page 25: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Adopter categories Innovators Early adopters Early majority Late majority Laggards

Page 26: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Technological Innovations Hardware - the tool that

embodies the technology as a material or physical object.

Software - the knowledge base for the tool

Page 27: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Japanese Word Processor Shipments

The industrial association of J apan office machines( )

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

year

thou

sand

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

thou

sand

number of shipment

cumulative number of shipment

Page 28: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Unit prices of WP and PC (MITI)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

year

un

it p

rice

(ye

n)

WP

PC

Page 29: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

(Somewhat) Ancient History (1/2)

8500 BC : Bone carved with prime numbers discovered

1000 – 500 BC : Abacus invented 1500 : da Vinci’s mechanical

calculator 1642 : Blaise Pascal, 1st adding

device 1714 : 1st English typewriter

patent

Page 30: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

(Somewhat) Ancient History (2/2)

1801 : Joseph Jacquard, weaving looms 1st to mechanically control a

device’s operations sequence 1822 : Charles Babbage,

Father of the Modern Computer and Ada Byron, Lady Lovelace

Page 31: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Charles Babbage An eccentric British mathematician and

inventor The Difference Engine, 1822; it

calculated and printed mathematical tables

Analytical Engine, the first device considered a computer in the modern sense of the word Would use loops of Jacquard’s punch cards to

control an automatic calculator, which would make decisions based on previous computation results

Page 32: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Analytical Engine, 1858

Page 33: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Ada Byron In 1843, predicted that Babbage’s

“analytical engine” could compose music and produce graphics with both practical and scientific application

Dscribed how Babbage’s engine might calculate Bernoulli numbers; this is regarded as the first “computer program.”

Ada, the first ISO-standardized OO programming language; developed by the US Department of Defense in 1979.

Page 34: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Modern History (1/3)

1937 : Alan Turing, Turing Machine Theoretical model of a computer

1938 : Claude Shannon’s Master’s Thesis “possibly the most important of the

20th century” Showed how Boole’s concepts of True

and False could be used to represent functions of switches (binary)

Page 35: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Modern History (2/3)

1939-1944 : Howard Aiken Harvard Mark I, 1st large scale

digital computer (IBM Automatic Sequence Control Calculator)

Used Electromagnetic Relays 1943 : Alan Turing & COLOSSUS

WWII machine designed to break German code; 1800 vacuum tubes

Earliest working programmable electronic digital computer

Page 36: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Modern History (3/3)

1943-1946 : ENIAC 1st fully Electronic Computer 18,000 vacuum tubes; 10’ tall, 1000 sq

ft of floor space, weighed ~30 tons 1945 : first computer “bug”

(literally!) 1949 : John VonNeumann

Consultant on Manhattan Project Paper : all basic elements of a stored

program computer

Page 37: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

First Commercial Computers

1951 : 1st Computer Sold to U.S. Bureau of Census - UNIVAC I

1954 : 1st Computer Sold to Private Corp., General Electric Company - UNIVAC I

Page 38: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Recent History (1/5)

1957 : FORTRAN 1st high-level programming

language 1959 : COBOL

Common Business Oriented Language

1961 : John F. Kennedy, Space Program

Page 39: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Recent History (2/5)

1964 : BASIC Beginners All-purpose Symbolic Instruction

Code

1975 : Bill Gates & Paul Allen, Microsoft

1976 : Steve Jobs & Steve Wozniack, Apple

1977 : Commodore “PET” computer

Page 40: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Recent History (3/5)

1979 : 1st “killer app” 1st Electronic Spreadsheet –

VisiCalc What is “killer app” in Winston’s

context? 1980 : PC DOS 1981 : IBM - PC 1983 : Apple Macintosh

Computer (GUI)

Page 41: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Recent History (4/5)

1984 : Laser Printers for PCs High quality affordable printing

1984 : CD-ROMS 1990s : Communications &

Multimedia Audio Video Internet - WWW Browsers

Page 42: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Recent History (5/5)

21st century? Peer-to-peer networks Miniaturization continues DRM DVD (burning) Time-shifting (Tivo, RePlay) Satellite radio

Page 43: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Categories of Computers Mainframes and PCs that run

application software Embedded chips that control

machines

Page 44: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Computing technology advances at exponential rates

Memory capacity quadruples every 3 years

Processor speed doubles every 3 years

Number of hosts doubles every year

Chip transistor densities double every 18 months at constant prices (Moore’s Law)

Page 45: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Computers and Networks Facilitate

Concentration of knowledge and control

Distribution of knowledge and control Have the power to

Amass and analyze enormous volumes of data

Process data at enormous rates for real systems and simulations

Page 46: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Computers and Networks Challenge:

Constitutional definitions Social structures Lifestyle options None more challenging than

“the Net”

Page 47: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Internet History

1964 - Rand Corporation Plan for dealing with military and government communications… in the event of a

“NUCLEAR WAR”

Page 48: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

National Network with No Central Authority

Page 49: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

ARPANET (Rand, MIT, UCLA) 1969 : 1st node on the

Internet 1971 : 15 nodes 1982 : TCP/IP

Page 50: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Picking Up Speed 1987 : Apple’s Hypertext 1991 : Tim Berners-Lee at

European Particle Physics Laboratory in Geneva conceived the World Wide Web

1993 : National Center for Supercomputing Applications [NCSA] - University of Illinois created a WWW browser named Mosiac

Page 51: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Faster... faster... faster

April 94 : Mosaic Communications [Clark & Andreesen]

Oct 94 : Netscape Beta Released Nov 94 : Mosaic Co ==>

Netscape Aug 9, 1995 : Netscape IPO

Page 52: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Internet Hosts

1971 : 15 1981 : 213 1985 : 1,961 1990 : 313,000 1994 : 3,864,000 1996 : 9,472,000 2003 : 171,638,297

http://www.isc.org/ds/host-count-history.html http://earthtrends.wri.org/searchable_db/index.cfm?the

me=10&variable_ID=553&action=select_countries

Page 53: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

What is a Host (aka Server)? A computer running software

that allows it to provide (serve) documents via the WWW.

The computer is assigned an IP address and connected to the Internet

Somewhat analogous to the “printer” of a print document.

Page 54: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

Parts of a Society Education Transportation Private Sector Business Government Entertainment

Housing Currency

(banking) Jobs Space Medicine Anything else?

Page 55: Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society

The Net and Society In recent years this one area

has affected society more than any other

How? What are the issues?