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Detainee Family Demographics: Family Social Structure is Complex 30% 48% 22% O ften Sometimes N ever 66% 45% 59% 43% 5% 6% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Mother Father Brothers Sisters Grandparent(s) Other Does the detainee make the decisions in the household? Who else lives in your household? Most detainees live with extended family jority don’t make the decisions Do you go to your tribal leader to help solve problems? Tribal influence is a factor N = 1016 Transition In Assessment 55% 45% YES NO
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Detainee Family Demographics: Family Social Structure is Complex Does the detainee make the decisions in the household? Who else lives in your household?

Mar 28, 2015

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Violet Gailes
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Page 1: Detainee Family Demographics: Family Social Structure is Complex Does the detainee make the decisions in the household? Who else lives in your household?

Detainee Family Demographics:Family Social Structure is Complex

30%

48%

22%

OftenSometimesNever

66%

45%

59%

43%

5%

6%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Mother

Father

Brothers

Sisters

Grandparent(s)

Other

Does the detainee make the decisions in the household?

Who else lives in your household?

Most detainees live with extended family

Majority don’t make the decisions

Do you go to your tribal leader to help solve problems?

Tribal influence is a factor

N = 1016 Transition In Assessment

55%

45%

YESNO

Page 2: Detainee Family Demographics: Family Social Structure is Complex Does the detainee make the decisions in the household? Who else lives in your household?

Detainee Family Demographics:Marriage, Children Add to Complexity and Financial Burden

Most detainees are married Most detainees live with extended family, even after marriage

Majority: 79% have Children

37%

63%

Are You Married, Yes

Are You Married, No

97%

83%

52%

31%

2%

43%

29%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Wife

Children

Mother

Father

In Laws

Brother(s)

Sister(s)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 morethan10

Number of Children

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

Ma

rrie

d D

eta

ine

e b

y N

um

be

r o

f C

hild

ren

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

50% of married detainees have

two children or fewer

25% of married detainees have five or more children

N = 1016 Transition In Assessment

Page 3: Detainee Family Demographics: Family Social Structure is Complex Does the detainee make the decisions in the household? Who else lives in your household?

Detainees are Not Prepared to Compete More than 60% of the Detainees Have not Completed High

School

60%

5%

24%

31%

18%

11%8%

2%0% 1%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

No fo

rmal

sch

ooling

1-5

yea

rs

6-8

yea

rs

9-1

2 ye

ars

Vocatio

nal s

chool

Colle

ge 4

year

s

Mili

tary

sch

ool

Rel

igio

us sc

hool

College

more

than

4 y

ears

N = 1016 Transition In Assessment

Page 4: Detainee Family Demographics: Family Social Structure is Complex Does the detainee make the decisions in the household? Who else lives in your household?

Most Detainees Say they Are EmployedMajority of Detainees Work as Unskilled Labor

14% Entered Labor Market Since 2003

1%

7%

1%

11%

19%

4%

12%

4%

7%

2%

1%

2%

21%

10%

22%

3%

10%

3%

4%

1%

31%

0.1%

0.2%

24%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Unemployed

Did not work was a student

did not work was retired

Military/Police/FPS

Farmer

Shepard

worked in a store

worked in a factory

worked for a government office

Trade/Craftsman/Construction

Teacher regular school

Teacher religious school

Teacher college or university

Lawyer / Engineer / Doctor What do you do for a living now What did you do under Sadam

N = 1016 Transition In Assessment

Page 5: Detainee Family Demographics: Family Social Structure is Complex Does the detainee make the decisions in the household? Who else lives in your household?

Why do they Fight? What Are Their Motivations?

• Several Motives Explored:– Sectarian animosity– Economic motives– Religious extremism– Revenge as a motive– Attitudes toward coalition

Page 6: Detainee Family Demographics: Family Social Structure is Complex Does the detainee make the decisions in the household? Who else lives in your household?

Sectarian AttitudesSunni Support Secular Shia Allawi as “Best Leader”

Sunni Assessment of Best Leader

14

55

11

2

8

0 2 4 4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Nu

mb

er

of

Resp

on

ses

N=220

Page 7: Detainee Family Demographics: Family Social Structure is Complex Does the detainee make the decisions in the household? Who else lives in your household?

Sectarian AttitudesSunni Support Intermarriage

Intermarriage common before US intervention but interviews reveal some intermarriage still takes place post 2003

Sunni Support of Daughter/Sister Marrying Shia/Sunni

Yes76%

No20%

Do Not Know4%

N=220

Page 8: Detainee Family Demographics: Family Social Structure is Complex Does the detainee make the decisions in the household? Who else lives in your household?

Majority View Both Sunni and Shi’a As Equally Good Muslims

Thinking about the Sunni/Shi’a difference, which of the following do you think is most true?

87%

13%

0.50%

Both can be equally good Muslims who will go to paradise

The (Shi’a/Sunni) are heretics who follow the wrong path and should be punished

The (Shi’a/Sunni)are heretics and God will punish them

This is a historical distinction that shouldn’t matter anymore today

N=1024

Page 9: Detainee Family Demographics: Family Social Structure is Complex Does the detainee make the decisions in the household? Who else lives in your household?

Economic Motives• Economic motives can be divided into two categories

– 1. Subsistence/survival- those who commit and/or support violent acts due to lack of viable alternative employment

– 2. Opportunistic/greed- those who commit and/or support violent acts to supplement income that can provide a viable existence

• The second category seems to be predominant• Many detainees are not totally unemployed; rather they

are underemployed or employed sporadically (e.g. day laborers)– Implicit they may have ended up in detention by

attempting to supplement their income by other means

N=220

Page 10: Detainee Family Demographics: Family Social Structure is Complex Does the detainee make the decisions in the household? Who else lives in your household?

Economic Motives (ii)• The post 2003 environment can be termed “the best of times,

the worst of times”• Detainees interviewed report exponential increase in access to

consumer good– 82% reported and increase in income

– 92% had acquired a satellite dish, 56% a cell phone, and 43% one or more vehicles; other goods acquired included DVD players, refrigerators, computers, air conditioners, etc.

– Access to cell phones and vehicles may have enhanced their utility to insurgency, DVD players (propaganda) may have attracted them to insurgency - but cause and effect very hard to establish

• At the same time, the old patriarchal system of Saddam was gone, creating a chaotic environment

• Entrepreneurs willing to engage in criminal activity can thus prosper from activities ranging from oil smuggling to arms sales

and enjoy the good life • There is a danger that the insurgency is becoming a vocation

N=220

Page 11: Detainee Family Demographics: Family Social Structure is Complex Does the detainee make the decisions in the household? Who else lives in your household?

Economic MotivesMajority Do Not Report Financial Problems; Many

Find It Difficult to Provide for Family

66%

34%

YesNo

Is this enough money to Take care of your family?

Dinars DollarsDay 126,021 $104

Month 3,155,149 $2,600Year 25,769,300 $21,300

Reported Wages

N = 1016 Transition In Assessment

Page 12: Detainee Family Demographics: Family Social Structure is Complex Does the detainee make the decisions in the household? Who else lives in your household?

Economic MotivesWeekly Income of Detainees

Income Before Detention

2%

26%

37%

20%

15%

No Income

1-49,999

50,000-99,000

100,000-200,000

>=200,000

Note: 76% of detainees reported that their weekly income was sufficient to meet the needs of their family; this closely matches the 72% that reported income of 50,000 Iraqi dinar/week or more

N=220

Page 13: Detainee Family Demographics: Family Social Structure is Complex Does the detainee make the decisions in the household? Who else lives in your household?

Religiosity

• Religious motivations seem muted among the majority of Iraqi detainees

• Even some interviewees alleged to be mid-level AQI have not expressed very strong religious feelings

• Some alleged JAM members have seemed very unreligious (heavily tattooed, enjoying alcohol)

N=220

Page 14: Detainee Family Demographics: Family Social Structure is Complex Does the detainee make the decisions in the household? Who else lives in your household?

ReligiosityMost Detainees in Sample Have Traditional/Conservative

Religious Views; Small but Powerful Minority Extreme

130

45

228

370

264

67

19 152 0

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Severity Scale (0 - secularist, 10 Extremist)

Nu

mb

er

in E

ac

h C

ate

go

ry

Secularist Tradition Traditionalist/Extremist Extremist

N = 1016 Transition In Assessment

Page 15: Detainee Family Demographics: Family Social Structure is Complex Does the detainee make the decisions in the household? Who else lives in your household?

ReligiosityMosque Not Central to Most Iraqi Detainees Lives

Mosque Attendance Before DetentionDo Not Know

1%

Other1%

Special Days Only4%

Never36%

Every Week28%

Sometimes30%

Note: 70% of detainees did not attend mosque every week

N=220

Page 16: Detainee Family Demographics: Family Social Structure is Complex Does the detainee make the decisions in the household? Who else lives in your household?

ReligiosityAttitudes Towards Enforcing Religious Behavior

Reaction to Neighbors Not Fasting

Sometimes I Do Not Fast10%

Tell Them They Should Fast

19%

Other1%

Not My Concern70%

Note: 80% either sometimes did not fast themselves or felt it was a private matter

N=220

Page 17: Detainee Family Demographics: Family Social Structure is Complex Does the detainee make the decisions in the household? Who else lives in your household?

ReligiosityAttitudes Towards Women Wearing Hijab are Relaxed

More women are wearing hijab now than in some previous years, and some say they are doing it because they are afraid of being attacked if they don’t. Which of the following do you think?

5%3%

92%

Its a good development if women dress moremodestly, and it doesn’t matter why they aredoing itIts a bad development because it shows thecountry is moving backward

Its ok if women are doing it voluntarily out ofpiety, but it’s bad if they are doing it out of fear

N = 1016 Transition In Assessment

Page 18: Detainee Family Demographics: Family Social Structure is Complex Does the detainee make the decisions in the household? Who else lives in your household?

Religiosity• Most detainees do not seem religiously motivated• Minority with strong religious motivation have

disproportional influence– Extremist fall into two classes:

• Takfiri (means excommunicate)– Most extreme– Have their own interpretation of Quran– Willing to do anything, including take on Western guise (i.e. eat pork), in

order to accomplish goals– Hated by most of detainee population– Dreaded by those unlucky enough to find themselves in a Tafir

compound– Will recruit through physical threat and mind control

• AQI (Al Qaeda in Iraq)– Motivation is to wage jihad – Influence of foreign fighters in terms of numbers is minimal; AQI is Iraqi– Influence of foreigners in terms of financing and upper echelon direction

of strategy more substantial– Viewed as “foreign” by most detainees and blamed for violence against

people of Iraq– Main recruiting leverage appears to be money

Page 19: Detainee Family Demographics: Family Social Structure is Complex Does the detainee make the decisions in the household? Who else lives in your household?

Revenge as a Motive

• Revenge seems to be a relatively rare but possibly powerful motive

• Question probing ‘violence against friends/family’ (from any source) had significant response

• Forced relocation had relatively few responses• However, some mid to senior AQI leaders note

revenge-related themes (loss of business to JAM or killing of a relative by CF)

N=220

Page 20: Detainee Family Demographics: Family Social Structure is Complex Does the detainee make the decisions in the household? Who else lives in your household?

Coercion as a Motive• Like revenge, coercion hard to estimate

• In TIFs, significant evidence suggests it is a powerful motive, e.g. forced adoption of or compliance with takfiri views

• Outside TIFs, some evidence from a few interviews but still inconclusive

N=220

Page 21: Detainee Family Demographics: Family Social Structure is Complex Does the detainee make the decisions in the household? Who else lives in your household?

Attitudes toward Coalition - Positive• Most detainees expressed qualified positive

feelings towards the Coalition

• This was most clear among Sunni detainees asked about CF withdrawal; the vast majority used vivid language to describe a disaster; e.g. “the Apocalypse,” “the streets will run red”

• All felt treatment by coalition was better than treatment by Iraqis

N=220

Page 22: Detainee Family Demographics: Family Social Structure is Complex Does the detainee make the decisions in the household? Who else lives in your household?

Attitudes toward Coalition - Negative

• However, a significant fraction had friends or family who had been killed by CF, most commonly near CF convoys

• Many blame coalition for detention

• Many have or have had family members detained

N=220

Page 23: Detainee Family Demographics: Family Social Structure is Complex Does the detainee make the decisions in the household? Who else lives in your household?

61%

10%

10%

4%

15%

Coalition Iraqi Govt Neighbors Yourself Tribal enemies

Attitudes toward CoalitionDetainees hold coalition responsible

Who do you blame for your detention?

N = 1016 Transition In Assessment

Page 24: Detainee Family Demographics: Family Social Structure is Complex Does the detainee make the decisions in the household? Who else lives in your household?

Attitude Toward CoalitionInsurgency & Detention Impacts Extended Family –

57% had family member detained

27%

6%

3%

10%0%11%

43%

Brothers

Father

Son

Cousin

Grandparents

Uncles

None

Have any of your family members been detained by the Coalition?

N = 1016 Transition In Assessment

Page 25: Detainee Family Demographics: Family Social Structure is Complex Does the detainee make the decisions in the household? Who else lives in your household?

Detainees Report “Security in Iraq” as Biggest Concern

Most Difficult Issues

5 3 3

55

85

15 13

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Elect

ricity

Wate

r

Food

Securit

y

Emplo

ymen

t or B

usines

s

Do Not K

now

There A

re N

o Pro

blem

s

Oth

er

Nu

mb

er o

f R

esp

on

ses

N=220

Page 26: Detainee Family Demographics: Family Social Structure is Complex Does the detainee make the decisions in the household? Who else lives in your household?

Majority of Detainees Have Been Personally Affected by Fighting

Family or Friends Killed/ Injured

Yes60%

No38%

Do Not Know2%

N=220

Page 27: Detainee Family Demographics: Family Social Structure is Complex Does the detainee make the decisions in the household? Who else lives in your household?

Many Detainees Exhibit Signs of Psychological Trauma and Anxiety; Very Few Have Ideas of

Martyrdom and AggressionPsychological Assessment

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Anxiety

Psychological Trauma

Depression

Aggressive Behavior

Martyrdom

Unknown 0% 0% 0% 6% 6%

No 36% 56% 75% 88% 91%

Yes 64% 44% 25% 6% 3%

AnxietyPsychological Trauma

DepressionAggressive Behavior

Martyrdom

N = 1016 Transition In Assessment