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Economic Development in Economic Development in Nigeria: Nigeria: A Demographic Perspective A Demographic Perspective Committee on African Studies Committee on African Studies Harvard Africa Seminar, Harvard Africa Seminar, April 13, 2010 David E. Bloom and Salal Humair Department of Global Health and Population, HSPH
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Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Jan 16, 2015

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Presentation given by David Bloom and Salal Humair to the Committee on African Studies Harvard Africa Seminar, setting out the details and aims of the NextGenerationNigeria project. This presentation also contains the speaking notes
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Page 1: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Economic Development in Economic Development in Nigeria:Nigeria:

A Demographic PerspectiveA Demographic Perspective

Committee on African StudiesCommittee on African StudiesHarvard Africa Seminar, Harvard Africa Seminar, April 13, 2010

David E. Bloom and Salal HumairDepartment of Global Health and Population,

HSPH

Page 2: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria
Page 3: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Nigeria’s economy has stagnated:No growth in income per capita

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1980 1990 2000 2006

GD

P p

er c

apit

a

PPP, constant 2005 intl $ Exchange-rate, constant 2000 US $

Source: World Development Indicators 2008

Page 4: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Indonesia and Pakistan have seen economic growth

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1980 1990 2000 2006

GD

P p

er

ca

pit

a,

PP

P (

co

ns

tan

t 2

00

5 i

nt'

l $

)

Nigeria

Indonesia

Pakistan

Source: World Development Indicators 2008

Page 5: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Nigeria’s economy compared with world regions

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

1980 1990 2000 2006

GD

P p

er

ca

pit

a,

PP

P (

co

ns

tan

t 2

00

5 i

nt'

l $

)

Nigeria

East Asia & Pacific

Sub-Saharan Africa

World

Source: World Development Indicators 2008

Page 6: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Comparing economic growth rates

Nigeria 0.0%Indonesia 3.6%Pakistan 2.5%East Asia & Pacific 6.6%Sub-Saharan Africa 0.0%World 1.6%

average annual growth rate of GDP/capita (PPP), 1980 - 2006

Source: World Development Indicators 2008

Page 7: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Nigeria’s fertility rate has started to fall

Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

2

3

4

5

6

7

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Ch

ild

ren

per

wo

man

Page 8: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

The infant mortality rate has fallen, but not steadily

Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

0

50

100

150

200

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Dea

ths

per

1,0

00 li

ve b

irth

s

Page 9: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Life expectancy has risen, but not steadily

Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Lif

e ex

pec

tan

cy a

t b

irth

, ye

ars

Page 10: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Crude birth and death rates are falling

Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

0

10

20

30

40

50

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Per

1,0

00 p

op

ula

tio

n

Crude birth rate Crude death rate

Page 11: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Population growth has been rapid

Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Po

pu

lati

on

gro

wth

rat

e (%

)

Page 12: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

The ratio of working-age to non-working-age people has been pretty

steady

Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Rat

io o

f w

ork

ing

-ag

e to

no

n-w

ork

ing

-ag

e p

op

ula

tio

n

Page 13: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Changing Age Structure, 1950-2010:A 3-dimensional view

Source: UN, World Population Prospects 2008

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Po

pu

lati

on

(m

illi

on

s)

0 - 4

10 -

1420

- 24

30 -

3440

- 44

50 -

5460

- 64

70 -

7480

- 84

90 -

9410

0+

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Age group

Page 14: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Average annual growth rate of GDP per capita, 1975-2005

Source: World Development Indicators 2008

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

East Asia & Pacific Sub-Saharan Africa

East Asian "miracle"

Sub-Saharan African debacle

Page 15: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Changing age structure, 1960-2005

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Ra

tio

of

wo

rkin

g-a

ge

to

no

n-w

ork

ing

-ag

e p

op

ula

tio

n

East Asia & Pacific Sub-Saharan Africa

Source: UN, World Population Prospects 2008

Page 16: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Population growth rate

time

Death rate

Birth rate

The demographic transition

Page 17: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Population age structure is a robust and powerful predictor of economic

growth

Demographics

One third (about 2 percentage points) of the growth of income per capita in East Asia during 1965-90 is attributable to the independent influence of changes in age structure.

Income

Page 18: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Nigeria’s population is set to soar

Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Po

pu

lati

on

(m

illi

on

s)

Page 19: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

The fertility rate is expected to continue falling

2

3

4

5

6

7

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Ch

ild

ren

pe

r w

om

an

Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

Page 20: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

The infant mortality rate is projected to continue falling

0

50

100

150

200

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

De

ath

s p

er

1,0

00

liv

e b

irth

s

Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

Page 21: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Life expectancy will continue to rise

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Lif

e e

xp

ec

tan

cy

at

bir

th,

ye

ars

Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

Page 22: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Crude birth and death rates will continue to fall

0

10

20

30

40

50

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Pe

r 1

,00

0 p

op

ula

tio

n

Crude birth rate Crude death rate

Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

Page 23: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Population growth rate will decline substantially

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Po

pu

lati

on

gro

wth

rat

e (%

)

Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

Page 24: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

The ratio of working-age to non-working-age people is set to increase

dramatically

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Ra

tio

of

wo

rkin

g-a

ge

to

no

n-w

ork

ing

-ag

e p

op

ula

tio

n

Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

Page 25: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Growth of the working-age to non-working-age ratio, 1960-2050 (under 3 UN fertility

scenarios)

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Ra

tio

of

wo

rkin

g-a

ge

to

no

n-w

ork

ing

-ag

e p

op

ula

tio

n

Low Medium High

Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

Page 26: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Comparing the growth rates of the working-age and non-working-age population

Dependent Working-age Dependent Working-agepopulation population population population

Nigeria 2.6% 2.7% 0.7% 2.0%Indonesia 0.9% 2.3% 0.8% 0.4%Pakistan 2.5% 3.0% 1.0% 1.8%East Asia 0.5% 1.9% 0.9% -0.1%Sub-Saharan Africa 2.6% 2.8% 1.1% 2.3%World 1.1% 1.9% 0.8% 0.7%

1970 - 2010 2010 - 2050

Annual average growth rate

Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

Page 27: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Changing Age Structure, 1950-2050:A longer 3-dimensional view of Nigeria’s trajectory

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Po

pu

lati

on

(m

illio

ns

)

1950

1975

2000

2025

2050

Age group

Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

Page 28: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

1950

Page 29: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

1960

Page 30: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

1970

Page 31: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

1980

Page 32: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

1990

Page 33: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

2000

Page 34: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

2010

Page 35: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

2020

Page 36: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

2030

Page 37: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

2040

Page 38: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

2050

Page 39: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Changing Age Structure, 1960-2050:Nigeria compared with East Asia

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Ra

tio

of

wo

rkin

g-a

ge

to

no

n-w

ork

ing

-ag

e p

op

ula

tio

n

East Asia Nigeria low Nigeria medium Nigeria high

Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

Page 40: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Changing Age Structure, 1960-2050:Nigeria compared with Indonesia and Pakistan

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Rati

o o

f w

ork

ing

-ag

e t

on

on

-wo

rkin

g-a

ge p

op

ula

tio

n

Nigeria Indonesia PakistanSource: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

Page 41: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Reaping the demographic dividend is not automatic, and may not be

permanent• Demography is not destiny – it just creates potential• Need to catalyze demographic transition • Need to accelerate demographic transition – esp.

fertility decline• Need compatible policies in other areas

– education– health– labor market– trade– governance– macroeconomic management

• March of the “silver hair” generation• Inequality within Nigeria

Page 42: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

The elderly will make up a larger share of the population

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Pe

rce

nt

% 60+ % 80+

Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

Page 43: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Will demographic heterogeneity

induce economic

inequality and political

instability?

Page 44: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Source: Population and Housing Census, National Population Commission, Nigeria, 1991 and 2006

Ratio, working-age to non-working-age population, by state

Page 45: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Take-home messages so far

• Demography can matter for the pace of economic development.

• It can matter a lot.• There is potentially a sizeable

demographic dividend in Nigeria’s future.

Page 46: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Estimates of the potential size and impact of Nigeria’s demographic

dividend

• The 2030 economy can be 3 times larger than in 2010, instead of 2 times.

• The average Nigerian can enjoy an additional 30% income in 2030.

• Over 30 million additional people can be lifted out of poverty

Source: Bloom et al. 2010. Nigeria’s demographic dividend. Background paper for the NGN project

Page 47: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Central questions

• How do we know how much demographic dividend Nigeria can expect?

• What challenges and opportunities does Nigeria face in trying to collect that dividend?

• What are some recommendations for the Nigerian government and civil society?

Page 48: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

One major challenge in estimating the demographic dividend

Source: Holly Reed, 2010. Capitalizing on Nigeria’s Demographic Dividend. Background paper for the NGN project

• Lack of data• Dubious data quality • Access to data difficult for academics

outside Nigeria• Few peer reviewed studies on Nigeria

compared to similar sized countries like Bangladesh or Indonesia

Page 49: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Demographic data is also a big political issue

Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/4512240.stm

Page 50: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

How much demographic dividend can Nigeria expect?

• Assembled panel data for 1965-2005 from• World Development Indicators, Penn World

Tables, Barro and Lee, Freedom House

• Estimated cross-country growth models using demographic and other variables• Geographical (tropical location,

landlockedness) • Human development (education, health)• Institutional quality (ICRG, SW, Trade

openness)

• Projected economic growth to 2030

Source: Bloom et al. 2010. Nigeria’s demographic dividend. Background paper for the NGN project

Page 51: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Potential impact of demographic dividend on per capita income

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Business-as-usual With DD and increased LE

Source: Bloom et al. 2010. Nigeria’s demographic dividend. Background paper for the NGN project

Page 52: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Year GDPpC "business-as-usual"

GDPpC with DD & added

LE

GDPpC improved IQ

& LE

2010 $2,070 $2,070 $2,070 2015 $2,521 $2,653 $2,664 2020 $3,070 $3,435 $3,461 2025 $3,738 $4,486 $4,535 2030 $4,553 $5,882 $5,966

Potential impact on per capita income with institutional and health

improvements

Source:Source: Bloom et al. 2010. Nigeria’s demographic dividend. Background paper for the NGN project

Page 53: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Potential impact of the demographic dividend on poverty

Source:Source: Bloom et al. 2010. Nigeria’s demographic dividend. Background paper for the NGN project

Year # lifted out of poverty with

DD and added LE

# lifted out of poverty with improved IQ

& LE2010 - -

2020 5.8 million 5.8 million

2030 31.8 million 34 million

Page 54: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

What are the challenges and opportunities in collecting the

demographic dividend?

• Jobs creation• Education• Health – infant/child mortality, maternal

health, unmet need for family planning

Page 55: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Year WA pop Unempl-oyment

Jobs needed Between years

Jobs to be added

2010 85,525,401 20% 52,358,719 2015 97,731,223 15% 63,570,579 2010-15 11,211,860 2020 111,088,850 10% 76,509,768 2015-20 12,939,189 2025 125,325,513 8% 88,233,036 2020-25 11,723,268 2030 140,036,212 7% 99,661,452 2025-30 11,428,415

Nigeria will need lots of jobs

Source: Author calculations.

Page 56: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

But jobs will also need to be productive: Nigeria’s economic

lifecycle - individual

Source: Mason et al. 2010. Population and economic progress in Nigeria. Background paper for the NGN project

Page 57: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Education will be key in making jobs productive: economic lifecycle -

aggregate

Source: Mason et al. 2010. Population and economic progress in Nigeria. Background paper for the NGN project

Needs of children

Labor surplus

Page 58: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

And results can be achieved with little: Nigeria’s current education

expenditures

Source: Mason et al. 2010. Population and economic progress in Nigeria. Background paper for the NGN project

Page 59: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Nigeria’s education and health spending

Source: Mason et al. 2010. Population and economic progress in Nigeria. Background paper for the NGN project.

Actual ($) % of spending

Education, Public 142 7.33Education, Private 922 47.63 Health, public 39 2.01Health, private 833 43.04 Total 1,936 100Total Public 181 9.33Total Private 1,755 90.67Per capita spending (2004 $s)

Page 60: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Nigeria’s human capital investment compared to other countries

Source: Nigeria: The Next GenerationTask Force secretariat, 2010.

Page 61: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Low health spending reflected in low level of maternal health

Source: Nigeria 2008 demographic and health survey: key findings.

Page 62: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Low health spending reflected in high levels of child mortality

Source: Nigeria 2008 demographic and health survey: key findings.

Page 63: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Low health spending reflected in low level of children vaccination coverage

Source: Nigeria 2008 demographic and health survey: key findings.

Page 64: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Low health spending reflected in high level of unmet need for family planning

Source: Unpublished background memo for the NGN project.

Page 65: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Unmet need in the context of current fertility

Source: Nigeria 2008 demographic and health survey: key findings.

Page 66: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Nigeria’s untapped human capital: the diaspora

Source: US Department of Homeland Security, Office of Immigration Statistics, 2008 Yearbook of Immigration Statistics.

1,500

8,800

35,343

67,232

82,583

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

1961 to 1970 1971 to 1980 1981 to 1990 1991 to 2000 2001 to 2008

Per

son

s

Number of persons obtaining legal permanent residents who were born in Nigeria, fiscal years 1961-2008

Page 67: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

The Nigerian US diaspora is well-educated

Source: Nigerian-born Population in the United States, unpublished background memo, NGN project

10.0

25.9

20.5

40.3

19.0

24.0

12.2

28.0

9.4

27.8

60.8

49.6

73.6

48.9

54.0

34.9

60.6

24.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Natives Nigeria Bangladesh India Indonesia Pakistan Brazil South Africa All otherforeign-born

Per

cen

t am

on

g p

op

ula

tio

n 2

5 ye

ars

old

an

d o

ver

Graduate or professional degree Bachelor's degree or higher

Page 68: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

And the diaspora is a significant resource

Source: The World Bank. Migration remittances factbook 2008. Updated Nigeria data from personal communication.

(US$ million) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Inward remittance flows 1,167 1,209 1,063 2,273 3,329 5,435 9,221 9,980 Outward remittance flows 1 1 12 21 18 18 103 103

Page 69: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Summary of challenges and opportunities in collecting the

demographic dividend

• Jobs• The number needed …• Low productivity …

• Education:• Very low public investment … but quick

gains …• Low quality schooling …

• Health• Very low public investment … but quick

gains …• Lower fertility can lessen pressure on

services …

Page 70: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Other challenges and opportunities we have not touched on

• Institutional improvements, governance• Infrastructure improvements• Politics, conflict and youth exploitation• Youth attitudes• Regional disparities and cultural

differences• Macro-economics and international

relations

Page 71: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Take home messages

• Nigeria’s demographic dividend opportunity is very significant - and can be crucial to Nigeria’s 2020 vision

• The demographic dividend could have a major impact on poverty in Nigeria

• Nigeria has several challenges to realizing the dividend, but many of these are also opportunities for quick gains

Page 72: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Reaping the demographic dividend:cautionary points regarding Nigeria

• Not all of the general points about the factors needed to realize the demographic dividend necessarily apply to Nigeria.

• In particular:– The development of well-functioning financial markets,

as important as it is, may not be as high a priority for Nigeria as elsewhere.

– Trade policy is important, but it may be more important to focus on diversification of the economy away from dependence on oil exports.

– Minimum wage laws and unions may affect only a small portion of Nigeria’s labor market.

Page 73: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Backup slides

Page 74: Demography and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Estimation results

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)

VARIABLES Geographical

only (OLS)

Geographical and human

only (OLS)

Geo, human

and dem only (OLS)

Geo, human

and dem only (IV)

Column (4) with

ICRG Score (OLS)

Column (4) with

ICRG Score (IV)

Column (5) with

SW Openness

(OLS)

Column (5) with

SW Openness

(IV)

Column (5) with

Trd Openness

(OLS)

Column (5) with

Trd Openness

(IV)

Difference working-age and 2.083*** 1.972*** 1.896*** 1.923*** 1.907*** 1.951*** 1.888*** 1.887*** total population growth (0.602) (0.624) (0.684) (0.620) (0.682) (0.618) (0.674) (0.619) Trade openness

0.00772** 0.00772**

(0.00313) (0.00310)

Sachs Warner openness 0.389 0.391 (0.479) (0.469) ICRG score for quality of institutions

0.108** 0.107** 0.105** 0.104** 0.104** 0.104**

(0.0445) (0.0419) (0.0466) (0.0441) (0.0446) (0.0420)

Log average years of secondary -0.172 -0.429 -0.415 -0.447 -0.450 -0.454 -0.459 -0.450 -0.450 schooling in base year (0.325) (0.334) (0.332) (0.333) (0.332) (0.328) (0.326) (0.332) (0.331) Log life expectancy in base year

8.606*** 5.434** 5.603*** 5.357** 5.317*** 5.146** 5.079** 5.269** 5.271***

(1.926) (2.161) (2.044) (2.154) (1.957) (2.283) (2.081) (2.150) (1.958)

Tropical location -0.699* -0.407 -0.648* -0.635* -0.477 -0.481 -0.533 -0.539 -0.731* -0.731* (0.363) (0.349) (0.344) (0.343) (0.368) (0.361) (0.390) (0.380) (0.392) (0.382) Landlocked 0.332 0.805** 1.008*** 0.998*** 0.725** 0.729** 0.699* 0.705** 0.734** 0.734**

(0.367) (0.386) (0.382) (0.384) (0.358) (0.358) (0.358) (0.358) (0.357) (0.357)

Log working-age population to 14.20*** 12.94*** 16.68*** 16.48*** 12.89*** 12.95*** 12.50*** 12.59*** 12.91*** 12.91*** total population in base year (2.420) (2.259) (2.650) (2.597) (3.437) (3.118) (3.287) (3.018) (3.403) (3.084) Log real GDP per capita in base year -0.902*** -1.844*** -1.617*** -1.630*** -1.828*** -1.825*** -1.852*** -1.846*** -1.897*** -1.897***

(0.280) (0.337) (0.350) (0.342) (0.369) (0.354) (0.370) (0.356) (0.368) (0.353)

Constant 18.85*** -9.351 3.388 -0.490 0.853 -2.463 1.618 -1.619 1.564 -2.027 (3.441) (8.028) (8.945) (8.396) (9.759) (8.752) (10.27) (9.260) (9.762) (8.766) Observations 610 610 610 610 610 610 610 610 610 610 R-squared 0.146 0.198 0.253 0.253 0.274 0.274 0.276 0.276 0.282 0.282 Robust standard errors in parentheses

*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

Source: Bloom et al. 2010. Nigeria’s demographic dividend. Background paper for the NGN project