Economic Development in Economic Development in Nigeria: Nigeria: A Demographic Perspective A Demographic Perspective Committee on African Studies Committee on African Studies Harvard Africa Seminar, Harvard Africa Seminar, April 13, 2010 David E. Bloom and Salal Humair Department of Global Health and Population, HSPH
Presentation given by David Bloom and Salal Humair to the Committee on African Studies Harvard Africa Seminar, setting out the details and aims of the NextGenerationNigeria project. This presentation also contains the speaking notes
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Economic Development in Economic Development in Nigeria:Nigeria:
A Demographic PerspectiveA Demographic Perspective
Committee on African StudiesCommittee on African StudiesHarvard Africa Seminar, Harvard Africa Seminar, April 13, 2010
David E. Bloom and Salal HumairDepartment of Global Health and Population,
HSPH
Nigeria’s economy has stagnated:No growth in income per capita
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1980 1990 2000 2006
GD
P p
er c
apit
a
PPP, constant 2005 intl $ Exchange-rate, constant 2000 US $
Source: World Development Indicators 2008
Indonesia and Pakistan have seen economic growth
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1980 1990 2000 2006
GD
P p
er
ca
pit
a,
PP
P (
co
ns
tan
t 2
00
5 i
nt'
l $
)
Nigeria
Indonesia
Pakistan
Source: World Development Indicators 2008
Nigeria’s economy compared with world regions
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
1980 1990 2000 2006
GD
P p
er
ca
pit
a,
PP
P (
co
ns
tan
t 2
00
5 i
nt'
l $
)
Nigeria
East Asia & Pacific
Sub-Saharan Africa
World
Source: World Development Indicators 2008
Comparing economic growth rates
Nigeria 0.0%Indonesia 3.6%Pakistan 2.5%East Asia & Pacific 6.6%Sub-Saharan Africa 0.0%World 1.6%
average annual growth rate of GDP/capita (PPP), 1980 - 2006
Source: World Development Indicators 2008
Nigeria’s fertility rate has started to fall
Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
2
3
4
5
6
7
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Ch
ild
ren
per
wo
man
The infant mortality rate has fallen, but not steadily
Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
0
50
100
150
200
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Dea
ths
per
1,0
00 li
ve b
irth
s
Life expectancy has risen, but not steadily
Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Lif
e ex
pec
tan
cy a
t b
irth
, ye
ars
Crude birth and death rates are falling
Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
0
10
20
30
40
50
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Per
1,0
00 p
op
ula
tio
n
Crude birth rate Crude death rate
Population growth has been rapid
Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Po
pu
lati
on
gro
wth
rat
e (%
)
The ratio of working-age to non-working-age people has been pretty
steady
Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Rat
io o
f w
ork
ing
-ag
e to
no
n-w
ork
ing
-ag
e p
op
ula
tio
n
Changing Age Structure, 1950-2010:A 3-dimensional view
Source: UN, World Population Prospects 2008
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Po
pu
lati
on
(m
illi
on
s)
0 - 4
10 -
1420
- 24
30 -
3440
- 44
50 -
5460
- 64
70 -
7480
- 84
90 -
9410
0+
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Age group
Average annual growth rate of GDP per capita, 1975-2005
Source: World Development Indicators 2008
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
East Asia & Pacific Sub-Saharan Africa
East Asian "miracle"
Sub-Saharan African debacle
Changing age structure, 1960-2005
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Ra
tio
of
wo
rkin
g-a
ge
to
no
n-w
ork
ing
-ag
e p
op
ula
tio
n
East Asia & Pacific Sub-Saharan Africa
Source: UN, World Population Prospects 2008
Population growth rate
time
Death rate
Birth rate
The demographic transition
Population age structure is a robust and powerful predictor of economic
growth
Demographics
One third (about 2 percentage points) of the growth of income per capita in East Asia during 1965-90 is attributable to the independent influence of changes in age structure.
Income
Nigeria’s population is set to soar
Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Po
pu
lati
on
(m
illi
on
s)
The fertility rate is expected to continue falling
2
3
4
5
6
7
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ch
ild
ren
pe
r w
om
an
Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
The infant mortality rate is projected to continue falling
0
50
100
150
200
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
De
ath
s p
er
1,0
00
liv
e b
irth
s
Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
Life expectancy will continue to rise
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Lif
e e
xp
ec
tan
cy
at
bir
th,
ye
ars
Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
Crude birth and death rates will continue to fall
0
10
20
30
40
50
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Pe
r 1
,00
0 p
op
ula
tio
n
Crude birth rate Crude death rate
Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
Population growth rate will decline substantially
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Po
pu
lati
on
gro
wth
rat
e (%
)
Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
The ratio of working-age to non-working-age people is set to increase
dramatically
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ra
tio
of
wo
rkin
g-a
ge
to
no
n-w
ork
ing
-ag
e p
op
ula
tio
n
Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
Growth of the working-age to non-working-age ratio, 1960-2050 (under 3 UN fertility
scenarios)
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ra
tio
of
wo
rkin
g-a
ge
to
no
n-w
ork
ing
-ag
e p
op
ula
tio
n
Low Medium High
Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
Comparing the growth rates of the working-age and non-working-age population
Dependent Working-age Dependent Working-agepopulation population population population
Changing Age Structure, 1950-2050:A longer 3-dimensional view of Nigeria’s trajectory
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Po
pu
lati
on
(m
illio
ns
)
1950
1975
2000
2025
2050
Age group
Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
1950
Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
1960
Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
1970
Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
1980
Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
1990
Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
2000
Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
2010
Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
2020
Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
2030
Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
2040
Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
2050
Changing Age Structure, 1960-2050:Nigeria compared with East Asia
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ra
tio
of
wo
rkin
g-a
ge
to
no
n-w
ork
ing
-ag
e p
op
ula
tio
n
East Asia Nigeria low Nigeria medium Nigeria high
Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
Changing Age Structure, 1960-2050:Nigeria compared with Indonesia and Pakistan
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Rati
o o
f w
ork
ing
-ag
e t
on
on
-wo
rkin
g-a
ge p
op
ula
tio
n
Nigeria Indonesia PakistanSource: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
Reaping the demographic dividend is not automatic, and may not be
permanent• Demography is not destiny – it just creates potential• Need to catalyze demographic transition • Need to accelerate demographic transition – esp.
fertility decline• Need compatible policies in other areas
Log average years of secondary -0.172 -0.429 -0.415 -0.447 -0.450 -0.454 -0.459 -0.450 -0.450 schooling in base year (0.325) (0.334) (0.332) (0.333) (0.332) (0.328) (0.326) (0.332) (0.331) Log life expectancy in base year
Log working-age population to 14.20*** 12.94*** 16.68*** 16.48*** 12.89*** 12.95*** 12.50*** 12.59*** 12.91*** 12.91*** total population in base year (2.420) (2.259) (2.650) (2.597) (3.437) (3.118) (3.287) (3.018) (3.403) (3.084) Log real GDP per capita in base year -0.902*** -1.844*** -1.617*** -1.630*** -1.828*** -1.825*** -1.852*** -1.846*** -1.897*** -1.897***