Decryption Affirmative Supplement - JDI 2015

7/23/2019 Decryption Affirmative Supplement - JDI 2015

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Case



Economy UQ



High — Workforce

Econ high now — workforce growingSchwartz 7/2 — senior staf writer or the New York Times, Recipient o the

Nathaniel Nash Award(Nelson D. Schwartz, !"!"#$%, &'.S. conom) Adds ""*,### +os- 'nemplo)mentat %.*,& http/00www.n)times.com0"#$%0#0#*01siness0econom)02os!report!hirin3!1nemplo)ment!21ne.html45r6#, Date Accessed/ !7!"#$%8 00N9Not too hot, not too cold. :1t not, alas, 21st ri3ht. The economy added a heathy 22!"### $o%s ast month, the ;aor Department reported Th1rsda), 1t with other indicators showin3 wa3es <at andman) Americans remainin3 on the sidelines, the o=erall economic pict1re or workers was not nearl) as ri3ht.

&tho'gh the 'nem(oyment rate fe to )*! (ercent" the owest in se+enyears" that was dri+en argey %y an e,od's from the work force" ratherthan more (eo(e -nding $o%s. 9oreo=er, the stron3 pa)roll 3ains or April and 9a), which had ledman) anal)sts to concl1de that the econom) mi3ht >nall) e 3ainin3 moment1m, were re=ised downward )

7#,### 2os. ?This was an @.. report, 1t the 'nem(oyment rate didn.t go down for theright reasons,B said ;iz Ann Sonders, chie in=estment strate3ist at Charles Schwa. erhaps most

disco1ra3in3, a=era3e ho1rl) earnin3s didnEt 1d3e in +1ne despite the drop in the 1nemplo)ment rate rom %.%percent in 9a), disappointin3 hopes that wa3es were >nall) increasin3 or most workers. Ft was a stron3 si3n thatplent) o slack remains in the 2o market, and that companies do not )et eel m1ch press1re to raise pa) to attract

needed emplo)ees. The share of &merican ad'ts either working or ooking for a $o%" which in many ways is a %etter ga'ge of economic strength than theof cited 'nem(oyment rate" fe #*! (ercentage (oint in 'ne* With 'ne.sdro( to 02*0 (ercent" the so caed a%or (artici(ation rate is now at itsowest since 177. Amon3 prime a3e ad1lts, those "% to %G, there has een no impro=ement inparticipation this )ear. The latest 2os report is likel) to sharpen deate amon3 Hederal Reser=e oIcials ao1t when

to start raisin3 the HedEs enchmark interest rate. +anet ;. Yellen, the HedEs chairwoman, and other o3ciasha+e (ointed to the heathy (ace of $o% growth as a reason to raise ratesater this year* The) sa) a stron3er laor market will ine=ital) res1lt in aster in<ation, and the Hed needs

to start mo=in3 in anticipation o that trend. Some o3cias, howe=er, (oint to the weak (ace of

wage growth" which aso contin'ed in 'ne" as e+idence that concernsa%o't in4ation are (remat're.



5ow — Cons'mer S(ending

6es(ite recent growth" ack of cons'mer s(ending is h'rtingthe economy

cCarthy 7/0 — roessor o histor) at the 'ni=ersit) o ;o1is=ille(+1stin, !7!"#$%, ?'.S. Cons1mer Spendin3 Hlat in +1ne, at JK#?,http/00www.3all1p.com0poll0$L*K$0cons1mer!spendin3!<at!21ne.aspM, DateAccessed/ !7!"#$%8 00N9

ASOFNPT@N, D.C. !! &mericans8 daiy sef9re(orts of s(ending a+eraged :# forthe month of 'ne" essentiay 'nchanged from the (re+io's two months. The latest a=era3e is also consistent with the +1ne a=era3es in "#$* and "#$G. Pall1pQs dail) spendin3 meas1reasks Americans to estimate the total amo1nt the) spent &)esterda)& in resta1rants, 3as stations, stores or online !!not co1ntin3 home, =ehicle or other ma2or p1rchases, or normal monthl) ills !! to pro=ide an indication o

AmericansQ discretionar) spendin3. The 'ne 2#1) a+erage is %ased on ;a'( 6aiytracking inter+iews with more than 1<"### U*S* ad'ts. &mericans8re(orted s(ending had %een rather stagnant from 2##92#12 on the hees

of the go%a -nancia crisis. :e3innin3 in late "#$", the metric %egan to rise andcontin'ed to do so into 2#1!* Since then" it has ho+ered aro'nd the :#mark , compared with m1ch lower a=era3es near the J# mark in "##K!"#$". Altho13h this year8s 'nea+erage is no di=erent from the 'ne 2#1! and 2#1< a+erages, it remains wellao=e the +1ne >31res Pall1p recorded etween "##K and "#$". Spendin3 each +1ne has t)picall) dipped sli3htl)compared with 9a), makin3 the J$ decline this )ear consistent with the a=era3e J* decline each +1ne rom "##Kthro13h "#$G. Spendin3 etween +1ne and +1l), howe=er, has 1s1all) increased a little, so it co1ld increase thismonth as well. Hrom a recent =anta3e point, the lack o increase in spendin3 co1ld e related to AmericansQsta3nant =iew o the econom) as a whole. Pas prices dipped sli3htl) d1rin3 the second hal o +1ne, so the lowercosts co1ld mean Americans are recaliratin3 their spendin3 in accordance with the relie the)Qre eelin3 at the

p1mp. The recent >o'rth of 'y weekend was sated to ha+e the owesthoiday weekend gas (rices in -+e years. Pi=en the 1s1al 1mp in +1l) spendin3, the nationalholida) had the potential to kick of a hei3htened le=el o month!lon3 spendin3. Res1lts or this Pall1p poll areased on telephone inter=iews cond1cted +1ne $!*#, "#$%, on the Pall1p '.S. Dail) s1r=e), with a random sample

o $G,7L% ad1lts, a3ed $L and older, li=in3 in all %# '.S. states and the District o Col1mia. Hor res1lts ased on thetotal sample o national ad1lts, the mar3in o samplin3 error is $ percenta3e point at the K% con>dence le=el. The mar3in o error or the spendin3 mean is J%. All reported mar3ins o samplin3 error incl1de comp1ted desi3nefects or wei3htin3. ach sample o national ad1lts incl1des a minim1m 1ota o %# cellphone respondents and%# landline respondents, with additional minim1m 1otas ) time zone within re3ion. ;andline and cell1lartelephone n1mers are selected 1sin3 random!di3it!dial methods.



5ow — ;reece

;reek de%t is disr'(ting US markets?im 7/0 — A:C di3ital reporter

(S1sanna, !7!"#$%, &Oow PreeceQs conom) Afects Americans ,&http/00acnews.3o.com0:1siness03reeces!econom)!afect!1s0stor)4id6*""%"7*$,Date Accessed/ !7!"#$%8 00N9;reece8s economic crisis contri%'ted to a di( in U*S* stocks today, 1t

Americans ma) ha=e learned their lesson rom their past eMpos1re to the nation. &fter the ;reek(eo(e +oted @no@ for creditors8 a'sterity meas're, a &PreMit,& or a ;reek e,itfrom the E'ro(ean Union" may or may not ha((en. ith two pre=io1s ailo1ts or Preece

on the ooks, many in+estors ha+e imited their e,(os're to ;reek de%t"ea+ing many &mericans8 <#1AkBs reati+ey 'nto'ched. Preece/ OereQs hat OappensNeMt Rice 'ni=ersit) economist Ted ;och!Temzelides acknowled3es thereQs concern, 1t he said he doesnQt elie=e

Americans will e afected in an) noticeale wa) ) PreekQs crisis. &arkets don8t ike 'ncertaintyand they react %rie4y to 'n's'a news ike this,& he said. &Oowe=er, the Preek risk hasalread) een priced in and F do not anticipate an) 1rther conse1ences or the '.S.& Fn=estor 1ncertaint) o=er

Preece this )ear started as earl) as +an1ar), when Preek elections rocked markets as the ar!let S)riza part) cameinto power. Preece isnQt a ma2or eMporter to the '.S., tho13h the co1ntr) pro=ides ao1t "% percent o the 1ropean'nionQs oli=e oil. The Association o Cretan @li=e 91nicipalities told @li=e @il Timeslast month that PreeceQsreerend1m anno1ncement and ank holida) stopped 1lk oli=e oil transactions. The association did not respond toa re1est or comment rom A:C News. :1t other economists ear the lar3er macroeconomic efects o a &PreMit.&

& T'rmoi in ;reece and a (otentia e,it co'd ca'se market shock wa+es in

the U*S* ,& said ;indse) ie3za, StielQs chie economist. She added, &E'ity markets are ikey to

st'm%e 'nder the %anket of not knowing what is ne,t.& Hirst, there is'ncertainty o+er what co'd ha((en to the U*S* doar. &Hears o what a PreMit means

and the possile conta3ion to other indeted co1ntries is likel) to ca1se =olatilit) >rst and oremost, with'(ward (ress're on the U*S* doar,& she said* The +a'e of the U*S* doarcosey a=ects the co'ntry8s many e,(orters. &&ready a strengtheningdoar has eroded e,(orts and man'fact'ring" sending %'siness andre+en'es o+erseas99 a trend that wi ikey %e e,acer%ated"& she said. There8saso concern a%o't not ony the U*S* e'ities %'t aso the %ond market.ie3za adds that a &<i3ht to 1alit)& trade is alread) 1nderwa) with )ields on Perman and '.S. onds allin3 andperipheral )ields on the rise. 1rope is more eMposed to PreekQs >nancial prolems. The e1ro slid to a one!week lowa3ainst the dollar recentl) eore o1ncin3 ack toda) to more than J$.$#.



Econ Dm(act Scenarios



F China Cy%er War

Economic decine eads to China cy%er war

Hs' 11 ?conomic Ties Co1ld Oelp re=ent 'S!China arB +erem) Os1,

Fnno=ation News Dail) Senior riter- #$ No=emer "#$$ #%/*" 9 T-http/00www.inno=ationnewsdail).com077#!china!militar)!c)er!national!sec1rit).htmlU

&s the U*S* faces China8s economic and miitary rise" it aso hods a

dwinding hand of cards to (ay in the 'nikey case of o(en con4ict*

Cy%erattacks aimed at com('ter networks" targeted disa%ing of sateites

or economic warfare co'd end '( %ringing down %oth of the frenemies*

That means ens'ring the U*S* economy remains strong and we9%aanced"

with China8s economy (ossi%y re(resenting the %est deterrent" accordin3 to a new

report. The Gand Cor(oration8s anaysts p1t low odds on a China!'.S. militar) con<ict takin3 place, 1t still

ay o't danger scenarios where the U*S* and China face greater risks of

st'm%ing into an 'nwanted war with one another. They (oint to the

economic code(endence of %oth co'ntries as the %est %et against o(en

con4ict" similar to how n1clear weapons ens1red m1t1all) ass1red destr1ction or the '.S. and So=iet 'nion d1rin3 the Cold

ar. ar 9ilitaria Collectors www.+CAmericana.come :1) ar Artiacts V 9ilitaria Hree Appraisals or A1thenticit);earn Perman in

$# Da)s imsle1rApproach.com0;earn!Permanorld!amo1s imsle1r 9ethod. As seen on :S ! JK.K% w0 Hree SVO.WA Oome ;oan

or Weterans www.WA9ort3a3eCenter.comPet a X1ote in " 9in1tes WA ;oans now 'p to J"K,### with J# Down. Ads ) Poo3le &Ft is

oten said that a stron3 econom) is the asis o a stron3 deense,& the Rand report sa)s. &Dn the case of China" a

strong U*S* economy is not $'st the %asis for a strong defense" it is itsef

(erha(s the %est defense against an ad+ent'ro's China*@ S'ch @m't'ay

ass'red economic destr'ction@ wo'd de+astate %oth the U*S* and China"

gi+en how China re(resents &merica8s main creditor and man'fact'rer*

The economic fao't co'd ead to a go%a recession worse than that

ca'sed %y the -nancia crisis of 2##92##. The '.S. still spends more than >=e times on deensecompared with China, 1t Rand anal)sts s133est that ChinaQs deense 1d3et co1ld o1tstrip that o the '.S. within the neMt "#

)ears. The '.S. Air Horce and Na=)Qs c1rrent ed3e in the aci>c has also e31n to shrink as China de=elops aircrat, ships,

s1marines and missiles capale o strikin3 arther o1t rom its coast. Mistin3 '.S. ad=anta3es in c)erwar and anti!satellite

capailities also donQt ofset the act that the '.S. militar) depends ar more hea=il) on comp1ter networks and satellites than

ChinaQs militar). That makes a 1ll!o1t c)erwar or satellite attacks too risk) or the '.S., 1t perhaps also or China. &There are no

li=es lost — 21st eMtensi=e harm, hei3htened anta3onism, and loss o con>dence in network sec1rit),& Rand anal)sts sa). &There

wo1ld e no Qwinner.Q& I(en miitary con4ict %etween China and the U*S* co'd aso

ha+e @historicay 'n(araeed@ economic conse'ences e+en if neither

co'ntry acti+ey engages in economic warfare" Gand anaysts say* The U*S*

co'd %oth %oost direct defense in the 'nikey case of war and red'ce the

risk of escaation %y strengthening China8s neigh%ors* S'ch neigh%ors"

inc'ding Dndia" So'th ?orea" a(an and Taiwan" aso re(resent (ossi%e

4ash(oints for China9U*S* con4ict in the scenarios aid o't %y the Gand

re(ort* Ither (ossi%e danger zones inc'de the So'th China Sea" where

China and many neigh%oring co'ntries ha+e dis('tes o+er territoria

caims" as we as in the m'rkier ream of cy%ers(ace* 'nderstandal), China has shown

ears o ein3 encircled ) semi!hostile '.S. allies. ThatQs wh) Rand anal)sts 1r3ed the '.S. to make China a partner rather than ri=al

or maintainin3 international sec1rit). The) also pointed o1t, enco1ra3in3l), that China has mostl) taken &ca1tio1s and pra3matic&

policies as an emer3in3 world power. &&s China %ecomes a tr'e (eer com(etitor" it aso



%ecomes (otentiay a stronger (artner in the defense as we as economic

-ed"@ the Gand anaysts say*

US9China con4ict eads to n'cear e,tinction ohnson" 2##1

(Chalmers, resident o +apan olic) Research Fnstit1te, The Nation, %0$G, l0n8China is another matter. No sane >31re in the enta3on wants a war with China, and a serio's USmiitarists know that China8s min'sc'e n'cear ca(acity is noto=ensi+e %'t a deterrent against the o+erwheming US (ower arrayedagainst it (twent) archaic Chinese warheads =ers1s more than ,### 'S warheads8. Taiwan, whose stat1sconstit1tes the still incomplete last act o the Chinese ci=il war, remains the most dan3ero1s place on earth.

91ch as the $K$G assassination o the A1strian crown prince in Sara2e=o led to a war that no one wanted, amisste( in Taiwan ) an) side co'd %ring the United States and China into acon4ict that neither wants* S'ch a war wo'd %ankr'(t the United States"dee(y di+ide a(an and (ro%a%y end in a Chinese +ictory" gi+en thatChina is the word8s most (o('o's co'ntry and wo'd %e defendingitsef against a foreign aggressor* 9ore serio1sl), it co'd easiy escaateinto a n'cear hooca'st. Oowe=er, 3i=en the nationalistic challen3e to ChinaQs so=erei3nt) o an)

Taiwanese attempt to declare its independence formay" forward9de(oyed US forces onChina8s %orders ha+e +irt'ay no deterrent e=ect .



F 55

;rowth key to so+e a a'ndry ist of (ro%ems F war"(roiferation" en+ironment" disease and dr'g tra3cking

Sik ! (;eonard. ?Dan3ers o Slow Prowth.B Horei3n Afairs. Wol " Fss1e $.$KK*0$KKG. 8

The last s1ch asset de<ation, credit cr1nch and wa=e o ankr1ptcies ollowed the Preat Crash o $K"K. >isca"monetary" and trade (oicy %'nders he(ed to t'rn that earier assetde4ation into the ;reat 6e(ression of the 1!#s" which asted a f'decade!!1ntil the o1treak o orld ar FF. F shall alwa)s rememer the phrase o m) old oss, lliott W. :ell/

&I't of the wreckage of de(ression sithered the ser(ents of Jazism andwar.& Nowada)s, re=ersin3 the celerated maMim o Peor3e Santa)ana, we elie=e or hope that those whorememer the past are not condemned to repeat it. Yet it is alread) e=ident that the lon3 period o slow 3rowth,which some ha=e called a &controlled depression,& has prod1ced re=ol1tionar) conse1ences o its own. Ft helped toshatter the So=iet empire. As the :ritish editor illiam Rees!9o33 has written/ &A world economic crisis is a t)pe oworld re=ol1tion. Ft destro)s old str1ct1res, economic and political. The So=iet 'nion, with its ri3id inailit) to adapt,was the >rst to all eore the 1ll orce o the storm. S1ch a crisis destro)s well!meanin3 politicians and promotesmen o power . . . . Ft destro)s respect or 3o=ernment, as people disco=er that their leaders cannot controle=ents.&LU The 1rst o optimism that 3reeted the downall o So=iet comm1nism has 3i=en wa) to anMiet) that)ears will pass eore the new states in the ast can ecome efecti=e market economies and democracies!!andthat some ma) not make it at all eore dictatorship ret1rns. The end o the Cold ar was eMpected to rin3 3reatene>ts to people in man) co1ntries as reso1rces were shited rom militar) to social pro3rams. Th1s ar, howe=er,the peace di=idend onl) shows 1p in lost 2os and allin3 incomes. Theoreticall) there is no reason wh) this m1st eso- in a rational world, the impro=ed prospects or peace sho1ld ha=e led to 3reater spendin3 on cons1mer 3oodsand prod1cti=it)!raisin3 in=estment. :1t that can happen onl) i workers can e shited to new 2os!!and >nancialreso1rces reallocated to create those 2os. Fn the asence o s1ch shits o h1man and capital reso1rces toeMpandin3 ci=ilian ind1stries, there are stron3 economic press1res on arms!prod1cin3 nations to maintain hi3hle=els o militar) prod1ction and to sell weapons, oth con=entional and d1al!1se n1clear technolo3), where=er

1)ers can e o1nd. Witho't a re+i+a of nationa economies and the go%aeconomy" the (rod'ction and (roiferation of wea(ons wi contin'e, creatin3more Fras, Y13osla=ias, Somalias and Camodias!!or worse. ;ike the Preat Depression, the c1rrent economic sl1mphas anned the >res o nationalist, ethnic and reli3io1s hatred aro1nd the world. conomic hardship is not the onl)

ca1se o these social and political patholo3ies, 1t it a33ra=ates all o them, and in t1rn the) eed ack oneconomic de=elopment. The) also 'ndermine e=orts to dea with s'ch go%a (ro%emsas en+ironmenta (o'tion, the prod1ction and traIckin3 o dr13s, crime, sickness, famine"&D6S and other pla31es. Prowth will not sol=e all those prolems ) itsel. :1t economic growth99andgrowth aone99creates the additiona reso'rces that make it (ossi%e toachie+e s'ch f'ndamenta goas as hi3her li=in3 standards, national and collecti=e sec1rit), ahealthier en=ironment, and more lieral and open economies and societies.



F S(ace Coonization

;rowth gets 's o= the rock — so+es ine+ita%e e,tinction ands'staina%iity

&shworth" .1# (Stephen Ashworth is a lon3!standin3 Hellow o the :ritishFnterplanetar) Societ). Oe works in academic p1lishin3 in the Woltaire Ho1ndation,part o @Mord 'ni=ersit) Z Towards the Sociolo3) o the 'ni=erse, part " Z $LDecemer "#$# Z http/00www.astronist.demon.co.1k0space!a3e0essa)s0Sociolo3)".html8

There are th's two pla1sile end9(oints to o'r c'rrent (hase of growth/

coa(se %ack to a (re9ind'stria e+e (the s1perno=a 1rns o1t8, or contin'ed growth

takin3 1s onto a s1stainale le=el o technolo3ical mat1rit) (the a) 3rows 1p8. The di=erence %etweenthese two 1t1re co'rses is immense. Fn terms o pop1lation, the carrying ca(acity ofEarth or h1man pop1lations is greater than the c'rrent 0 or 7 %iion" %'t not +erym'ch so, perhaps a ew tens o illions (dependin3 on the technolo3ies a=ailale8. &ny retreat to medie=al le=els o

technolo3) wo'd c't this -g're %y a factor of ten" (ro%a%y down to ess thana %iion* :1t the carrying ca(acity of the Soar System is at east a miiontimes greater than that of a high9tech Earth, and that o the PalaM) at least a illion times 3reatera3ain than that o the Solar S)stem. The present!da) sit1ation o h1man societ) is thereore that it >nds itsel at a cross!roads o

1nparalleled si3ni>cance. Df growth is not maintained, then, 1nless the) can rei3nite that 3rowth phase, o'rdescendants are fore+er restricted to (anet Earth. :1t m1st the) necessaril) all ack to amedie=al or e=en more primiti=e le=el4 Co1ld ind1strial ci=ilisation s1r=i=e or a while in a zero!3rowth phase at aro1nd its present!da) le=el o de=elopment, and i so, or how lon34 Fn an) disc1ssion o mankind and space, this is a ke) 1estion which m1st eaddressed. Certainl), pre!ind1strial ci=ilisations ha=e s1r=i=ed with little chan3e o=er millennial timespans, 1t to what eMtent does

ind1strial technolo3) chan3e this pict1re4 And what ao1t million!)ear timespans4 The ony ty(es of ind'striaci+iisation we ha+e o%ser+ed so far ha+e %een that %ased on ca(itaisteconomics" and that %ased on sociaism, in which a political ideolo3) takes o=er the role o capital.Capitalist societies wo1ld seem to e eMpansionar) in their =er) nat1re/ the) are de>ned ) the sel!m1ltipl)in3 power o capital. :1t

co'd a sociaist society" one with a s1itale ideolo3) which was s1Icientl) se=erel) imposed, (reser+e

zero growth inde-niteyK D think not, eca1se societies e=ol=e in an 1npredictale manner.

;o+ernments which ha+e tried to maintain control in, sa), Tok13awa +apan ($7#*!$L7L8 or So=iet R1ssia

($K$!$KLK8 ha+e faied in their goas o stailit) (+apan8 or planned 3rowth (R1ssia8, and modern lieraldemocrac) works ) limitin3 its amitions and cedin3 m1ch power to the econom) at lar3e. =en a 3loal dictatorship, which 1nlikethose two historical eMamples wo1ld ) de>nition not ace competition rom aroad, wo1ld, F think, e 1nale to control all the

disr1pti=e political, technolo3ical and economic orces emer3in3 1npredictal) worldwide o=er cent1ries and millennia. Theres't wo'd then %e either the %reako't of a new (hase of growth" ordecine and collapse* Dn +iew of the ikeihood of lon3!term ad+erse cimate change

(whether tri33ered ) ind1strial poll1tion, or asteroid im(act, or an o1treak o s1per!=1lcanism, or the ret1rn o ice!

a3e conditions, or solar =ariations8, and in addition the (ersistent threat of 3loal hi3h!tech con<ict

(whether spreadin3 destr1ction ) n'cear wea(ons" or comp1ter =ir1ses, or geneticayengineered organisms, or microscopic or macroscopic roots8, decine wo'd %e the more(a'si%e o'tcome* Ne=ertheless, the 1estion as to how lon3 a 3loal zero!3rowth ind1strial ci=ilisation co1ld

s1r=i=e in a stale state on one planet is an interestin3 one, tho13h not one that is likel) to attract 1niased anal)sis ) modern

sociolo3). What" howe+er" if growth is maintainedK S1rel) arth will ecome o=er1rdened and that

3rowth will lead to en=ironmental and social collapse4 The point here is that, whie the reso'rces of Earthare imited" those of the Soar System are +ery m'ch greater. Prowth in pop1lationsizes and in the 1sa3e o ener3) and raw materials ma) thereore contin1e or a n1mer o cent1ries into the 1t1re, pro=ided thattwo conditions are met/ [ 9aterial 3rowth on arth le=els of- [ 9aterial 3rowth in space and on other planets takes o=er the

1pward trend. Ds this not e'i+aent to saying that Earth m'st sette down with azero9growth society %efore s(ace de+eo(ment %eginsK Jo" so ong as theterrestria and e,traterrestria economies are inked. hile this remains tr1e, it will epossile or in=estors on arth to in=est capital in eMtraterrestrial de=elopment, and recei=e di=idends ack rom that de=elopment.



hile most arth!dwellin3 people will remain on the mother planet, there will also e <ows o people, 3oods and ideas etweenarth and her colonies, which m1st also ha=e a proo1nd economic efect. A net in<ow o =al1e to arth is in an) case necessar) inorder that terrestrial in=estment in o1ter space does not merel) prod1ce in<ation in the home econom). :1t that in<ow need not eo material 3oods, and is more likel) to consist o ener3) (solar power deli=ered on microwa=es or lasers8 and inormation (sotwareand prod1ct de=elopment8. :1t s1rel) 1ltimatel) the limits o the Solar S)stem will e reached, and the interplanetar) ci=ilisationha=e to settle down as a zero!3rowth societ)4 Yes, 3ranted. :1t this difers rom a zero!3rowth planet arth d1e to the immense sizeo the Solar S)stem, which is lar3er than arth ) etween o1r and siM orders o ma3nit1de, dependin3 how ar o1t one wants to 3o

Z to the distance o 9ars, sa), or to the @ort comet clo1d ar e)ond l1to. &n inter(anetary ind'stria

ci+iisation is sec're for the ong term in a way that a mono(anetary oneis not, eca1se it is too lar3e to orm a 1nit), either politicall) or en=ironmentall), and eca1se it is orced to adapt to a wide

ran3e o hostile en=ironmental conditions. Dt wi thereore %e sec're against any concei+a%een+ironmenta or miitary disaster, eca1se s1ch a disaster can onl) afect a sin3le planet, or at most alimited re3ion o the s)stem. Climate chan3e or world war on arth has no efect on 9ars, and =ice =ersa. And with the ma2orit) othe pop1lation in oritin3 arti>cial space colonies, e=en a ma2or chan3e in solar l1minosit) co1ld e tolerated (tho13h s1ch a chan3eis not eMpected to ha=e a noticeale efect or h1ndreds o millions o )ears )et8. ith interplanetar) ci=ilisation, the social s)stemas a whole can tolerate decline and collapse in partic1lar locations, eca1se the) can then e recolonised rom o1tside. @nce

h1manit) achie=es interstellar stat1s, this sec1rit) actor is clearl) =astl) enhanced. Howe+er" in order forinter(anetary growth to occ'r in the -rst (ace" an economic mechanismm'st %e in (ace to dri+e it* The most s'ita%e economic mechanism thathas %een demonstrated so far is ca(itaism. Fts need or contin1o1s eMpansion makes it hi3hl)appropriate as an economic s)stem or a societ) colonisin3 its local planetar) s)stem.



Hegemony



Heg S'staina%e

6es(ite at ca'ses" US hegemony is resiientLa%ones 1)Sal=atore :aones, proessor o sociolo3) and social polic) at the 'ni=ersit) oS)dne), American Oe3emon) Fs Oere to Sta), 70$$0$%,http/00nationalinterest.or30eat1re0american!he3emon)!here!sta)!$*#LKFS RTRAT rom 3loal he3emon) in AmericaEs national interest4 No idea has percolated more widel) o=er the past

decade—and none is more o31s. The United States is not headed for the skids andthere is no reason it sho'd %e* The tr'th is that &merica can and sho'dseek to remain the word.s to( dog. The idea of &merican hegemony is as old

as :en2amin Hranklin, 1t has its (ractica roots in Word War DD* The United Statesemerged from that war as the dominant economic" (oitica andtechnoogica (ower. The onl) ma2or comatant to a=oid serio1s dama3e to its inrastr1ct1re, its ho1sin3stock or its demo3raphic pro>le, the 'nited States ended the war with the 3reatest na=al order o attle e=er seenin the histor) o the world. Ft ecame the postwar home o the 'nited Nations, the Fnternational 9onetar) H1nd and

the orld :ank. And, o co1rse, the 'nited States had the om. &merica was" in e+ery sense of

the word" a hegemon* MHegemonyN is a word 'sed %y socia scientists todescri%e eadershi( within a system of com(eting states. AmericaEs onl) 3loal ri=alin the twentieth cent1r) was the So=iet 'nion. The So=iet 'nion ne=er prod1ced more than ao1t hal o AmericaEstotal national o1tp1t. Fts nominal allies in astern 1rope were in act resti=e occ1pied co1ntries, as were man) oits constit1ent rep1lics. Fts client states o=erseas were at est partners o con=enience, and at worst eMpensi=edrains on its limited reso1rces. The So=iet 'nion had the power to resist American he3emon), 1t not to displace it.

Ft had the om and an impressi=e space pro3ram, 1t little else. When the So+iet Union -naydisintegrated in 11" &merican hegemony was com(ete* The UnitedStates sat at the to( of the internationa system" facing no serio's ri+asfor go%a eadershi(* This M'ni(oar momentN asted a mere decade*Se(tem%er 11" 2##1" signaed the emergence of a new kind of threat togo%a sta%iity" and the ens'ing rise of China and reemergence of G'ssia('t (aid to the era of 'nchaenged &merican eadershi(* Jow" &merica.s

interna (oitics ha+e deadocked and the U*S* go+ernment shrinks from(aying the roe of go%a (oiceman* Dn the second decade of the twenty9-rst cent'ry" &merican hegemony is widey (ercei+ed to %e in terminadecine* Ir so the story goes. Fn act, reports o the passin3 o '.S. he3emon) are 3reatl)eMa33erated. AmericaEs costl) wars in Fra and A3hanistan were relati=el) minor afairs considered in lon3!termperspecti=e. The strate3ic challen3e posed ) China has also een eMa33erated. To3ether with its inner circle o1nshakale n3lish!speakin3 allies, the 'nited States possesses near!total control o the worldEs seas, skies,airwa=es and c)erspace, while American 1ni=ersities, think tanks and 2o1rnals dominate the world o ideas. 1t

aside all the alarmist p1nditr)* &merican hegemony is now as -rm as or -rmer than ithas e+er %een" and wi remain so for a ong time to come* THE &SSDOEfedera de-cit" negati+e credit9agency re(orts" re(eated de%t9ceiingcrises and the 2#1! go+ernment sh'tdown a created the im(ression thatthe U*S* go+ernment is %ankr'(t" or cose to it* The U*S* economy im(orts

haf a triion doars a year more than it e,(orts* &mong the &merican(o('ation" (o+erty rates are high and ordinary workers. wages ha+e %eenstagnant Ain rea termsB for decades. ashin3ton seems to e paral)zed ) perpet1al 3ridlock.@n top o all this, strate3ic eMha1stion ater two costl) wars in A3hanistan and Fra has s1stantiall) de3raded '.S.militar) capailities. Then, at the =er) moment the militar) needed to re3ro1p, re1ild and rearm, its 1d3et was hit

) se1estration. Df economic (ower forms the ong9term fo'ndation for (oiticaand miitary (ower" it wo'd seem that &merica is in termina decine* L't(oicy anaysts tend to ha+e short memories* Cyces of hegemony r'n incent'ries" not decades (or seasonsB* When the United ?ingdom -nay



defeated Ja(oeon at Wateroo in 11)" its nationa reso'rces werecom(etey e,ha'sted* Lritain.s ('%ic9de%t9to9;6P ratio was o+er 2)#(ercent" and eary nineteenth9cent'ry go+ernments acked access to thef' range of -sca and -nancia toos that are a+aia%e today* et theLritish Cent'ry was ony $'st %eginnin3. The aM :ritannica and the ele=ation o X1een Wictoria

to ecome empress o Fndia were 21st aro1nd the corner. Ly com(arison" &merica.s c'rrent

('%ic9de%t9to9 ;6P ratio of ess than # (ercent is reati+ey %enign. Thosewith e=en a limited historical memor) ma) rememer the da) in +an1ar) "##$ when the then chairman o the

Hederal Reser=e" &an ;reens(an" testi-ed to the Senate :1d3et Committee that ?if c'rrent(oicies remain in (ace" the tota 'ni-ed s'r('s wi reach :## %iion in-sca year 2#11* * * * The emerging key -sca (oicy need is to address theim(ications of maintaining s'r('ses.B As the poet said, liss was it in that dawn to e ali=e

Two taM c1ts, two wars and one >nancial crisis later" &merica.s %'dget de-cit was ro'ghythe size of the (ro$ected s'r('s that so worried ;reens(an*

Heg is s'staina%e F maintain com(arati+e ad+antage in tech iskey?ar 70"*01< (Da=id +. arl is president o the Asia Strate3) Fnitiati=e, an anal)sis

and ad=isor) >rm, and senior director o Peoskope, an intelli3ence compan)oc1sed on emer3in3 markets, +1ne "*rd, "#$G, ?The Preatest Challen3e to '.S.National Sec1rit)/ A eak conom)B, http/00nationalinterest.or30eat1re0the!3reatest!challen3e!1s!national!sec1rit)!weak!econom)!$#"#4pa3e6"00mmFn his recent orei3n!polic) address at est oint, President I%ama ('shed %ack against caims that &merica.s go%a eadershi( is in termina decine* He.sright to do so" since many of these caims are e,aggerated and take itteacco'nt of the signi-cant (ro%ems that are starting to weigh downChina.s economic tra$ectory" inc'ding signs of a gigantic credit %'%%ethat has s(arked tak that the co'ntry is a((roaching its own M5ehmanmoment*N Dt.s aso tr'e that the (ro(hets of &merican decine ignore keyfactors" ike demogra(hic ad+antages and the ca(acity for technoogica

inno+ations" which reinforce U*S* strategic (ower*

The US is the go%a hegemon now F s'(erior miitaryca(a%iities g'arantee com%at s'ccess F their a'thors areincom(etent?agan 12 Z Roert, senior ellow at :rookin3s, ?Not Hade Awa),Bhttp/00www.newrep1lic.com0article0politics0ma3azine0KK%"$0america!world!power!declinism4passthr16\Dk)NzXz\Tk*YY*Yz#@9%9PRi\mFwNPXwND:i\mFV1tm5so1rce6ANTO@N5STRFDV1tm5campai3n6ANTO@N5STRFDV1tm5medi1m6ANTO

@N5STRFD, 0L0$G 00mm5ess than a decade ago, most o%ser+ers s(oke not of &merica.s decine %'tof its end'ring (rimacy. Fn "##", the historian a1l enned), who in the late$KL#s had written a m1ch!disc1ssed ook on ?the rise and all o the 3reat powers,BAmerica incl1ded, declared that ne=er in histor) had there een s1ch a 3reat?disparit) o powerB as etween the 'nited States and the rest o the world.Fkenerr) a3reed that ?no other 3reat powerB had held ?s1ch ormidalead=anta3es in militar), economic, technolo3ical, c1lt1ral, or political capailities....

The preeminence o American powerB was ?1nprecedented.B Dn 2##<" the ('ndit

http://www.newrepublic.com/article/politics/magazine/99521/america-world-power-declinism?passthru=ZDkyNzQzZTk3YWY3YzE0OWM5MGRiZmIwNGQwNDBiZmI&utm_source=PANTHEON_STRIPPED&utm_campaign=PANTHEON_STRIPPED&utm_medium=PANTHEON_STRIPPED










>areed Rakaria descri%ed the United States as en$oying a Mcom(rehensi+e'ni9(oarityN 'nike anything seen since Gome* L't a mere fo'r years aterRakaria was writing a%o't the M(ost9&merican wordN and Mthe rise of therest"N and enned) was disco1rsin3 a3ain 1pon the ine=itailit) o Americandecline. 6id the f'ndamentas of &merica.s reati+e (ower shift sodramaticay in $'st a few short yearsK The answer is no* ;etEs start with the

asic indicators. Dn economic terms" and e=en despite the c1rrent )ears orecession and slow 3rowth, &merica.s (osition in the word has not changed*Dts share of the word.s ;6P has hed remarka%y steady, not onl) o=er thepast decade 1t o+er the (ast fo'r decades. Fn $K7K, the 'nited States prod1cedro13hl) a 1arter o the worldEs economic o1tp1t. Toda) it still prod1ces ro13hl) a1arter, and it remains not ony the argest %'t aso the richest economy inthe word. Peo(e are righty mesmerized %y the rise of China" Dndia" andother &sian nations whose share of the go%a economy has %een cim%ingsteadiy" %'t this has so far come amost entirey at the e,(ense of E'ro(eand a(an" which ha+e had a decining share of the go%a economy.@ptimists ao1t ChinaEs de=elopment predict that it will o=ertake the 'nited Statesas the lar3est econom) in the world sometime in the neMt two decades. This co1ld

mean that the 'nited States will ace an increasin3 challen3e to its economicposition in the 1t1re. :1t the sheer size of an economy is not %y itsef a goodmeas're of o+era (ower within the internationa system* Df it were" theneary nineteenth9cent'ry China" with what was then the word.s argesteconomy" wo'd ha+e %een the (redominant (ower instead of the(rostrate +ictim of smaer E'ro(ean nations. E+en if China does reach this(innace again—and Chinese leaders ace si3ni>cant ostacles to s1stainin3 theco1ntr)Es 3rowth inde>nitel)—it wi sti remain far %ehind %oth the UnitedStates and 1rope in terms of (er ca(ita ;6P. 9ilitar) capacit) matters, too, asearl) nineteenth!cent1r) China learned and Chinese leaders know toda). As Yan]1eton3 recentl) noted, Mmiitary strength 'nder(ins hegemony*N Here theUnited States remains 'nmatched. Dt is far and away the most (owerf'nation the word has e+er known" and there has %een no decine in&merica.s reati+e miitary ca(acity—at least not )et. &mericans c'rrentys(end ess than :0## %iion a year on defense" more than the rest of theother great (owers com%ined* (This >31re does not incl1de the deplo)ment inFra, which is endin3, or the comat orces in A3hanistan, which are likel) todiminish steadil) o=er the neMt co1ple o )ears.8 The) do so, moreo=er, whilecons1min3 a little less than G percent o PD ann1all)—a hi3her percenta3e thanthe other 3reat powers, 1t in historical terms lower than the $# percent o PDthat the 'nited States spent on deense in the mid!$K%#s and the percent it spentin the late $KL#s. The s1perior eMpendit1res 1nderestimate AmericaEs act1als1periorit) in militar) capailit). American land and air orces are e1ipped with themost ad=anced weaponr), and are the most eMperienced in act1al comat. Theywo'd defeat any com(etitor in a head9to9head %atte* &merican na+a(ower remains (redominant in e+ery region of the word*

6ecine.s not ine+ita%e F The US is 'n(araeed in miitarystrengthSoare 1! Z Simona, FSD9O, Deense St1dies, Researcher0ractitioner, ?PloalPoliath =s. Ploal ;eader/ the 'nited StatesE DiIc1lt Choice,B



https/00www.academia.ed10G%7*%0Ploal5Poliath5=s.5Ploal5;eader5Americas5DiIc1lt5Choice, 070$G 00mm

This article starts of ) askin3 what makes this (artic'ar (eriod in &mericanhistory so di=erent from the (re+io's fo'r decinist wa+es o Americanorei3n polic). And the answer it comes 1p with ater takin3 a closer look at thepinnacle o s)stemic power Z militar) power Z is that the U*S* is (oised to

remain the systemic ;oiath for the foreseea%e f't're. Fn partic1lar, F ar31ethe em(irica e+idence o=ered %y the decinist schoo of &merican foreign(oicy is circ'mstantia and %arey 'anti-a%e. Fn other words, the go%a;oiath is sti 'ndefeated in the miitary -ed where no signs of decineare (ertinenty +isi%e at this point.

Heg is s'staina%e Fchina can.t ste( '(White 1!(Thomas hite is c1rrentl) in law school at Col1mia. Oe has a :A and 9Ain politics and international afairs rom New York 'ni=ersit) and has st1died inworked in oth the 'A and China.e 899http/00www.h1In3tonpost.com0thomas!white0wh)!1s!he3emon)!is!here!

t55G"%L"7G.html'.S. he3emonic decline has een deated or decades, and the newest oil to itsa1thorit) is China. The U*S* c'rrenty e,ists as the word8s one and onys'(er(ower. L't it is foy to %eie+e that the U*S* wi %e de(osed %y Chinaanytime soon" e+en with its do'%e9digit growth and increasing regionain4'ence* Ge(orts foreteing the end of U*S* hegemony rey on raw data"when it is internationa reationshi(s that tr'y 'ndergird words'(er(owers* Jo economic" miitary" and ('%ic o(inion form'a wi decidethe word8s ne,t go%a hegemon* These com(onents matter99%'t notwitho't internationa egitimacy" as deri+ed from" and de-ned %y" a go%acoaition of the wiing* Dt is here that the U*S* reigns s'(reme* The U*S*has won o+er" howe+er %egr'dgingy" the internationa comm'nity as a

whoe* &nd 'nti this aegiance to the U*S* %reaks down" she wi remainthe a%so'te word s'(er(ower. The U*S* wieds a (ower of in4'ence"(ers'asion" and eadershi( on the internationa stage that no other statecomes cose to* She sets internationa aw" ignores internationa aw" andis acco'nta%e to no one* China" whie ceary $ockeying for a'thority and(ower" does not yet ha+e egitimacy. Take HranceQs in=asion o 9ali last )ear. Ftwas the '.S. who pro=ided the necessar) s1pport, in efect r1nnin3 the operation tocomat Fslamic militants. A scenario where Hrance, a co1ntr) with a permanent seaton the 'N Sec1rit) Co1ncil, calls >rst on China or tactical s1pport is to13h toima3ine. China has seen its regiona in4'ence increase s'%stantiay inrecent years" %'t a sit'ation where China and not the U*S* eads as'ccessf' internationa coaition of aies is fantasy* Dn fact" the o((ositeis tr'e* China is far from %eing considered a tr'stworthy ay to theinternationa comm'nity" sitting on the (eri(hery of many internationadecision9making (rocesses" for a n'm%er of reasons* China commitsdee(y tro'%ing h'man rights +ioations at home* China has yet todisa+ow the %r'ta o((ression of President Lashar a9&ssad" and" aongwith G'ssia" has hed '( UJ reso'tions condemning the regime* China isaso Jorth ?orea8s ast ay" a thoro'ghy 'nfort'nate distinction* China8sreationshi( to h'man rights is anything %'t (rogressi+e* Censorshi( of

https://www.academia.edu/4576375/Global_Goliath_vs._Global_Leader_Americas_Difficult_Choice






the (ress and the Dnternet" restrictions on freedoms of reigion"e,(ression" association" (rohi%ition of many inde(endent a%or 'nions andorganizations" and the re(ressi+e (oicies against many (eo(e in WesternChina and Ti%et s(e tro'%e for the eaders in Lei$ing on the internationastage. =en tho13h the '.S. is no h1man ri3hts saint, she c1rrentl) holdsle3itimac) with a team o allies who prize consistenc) and stailit), making a

go%a shift in (ower highy 'nikey* Df China contin'es on this (ath of'estiona%e go+ernance and ca+orting with 'estiona%e aies" noserio's %ock of internationay in4'entia states wi s'((ort a Chinesehegemony o+er the c'rrent U*S* one* &nd so" China wi remain a strongregiona and internationa (ayer" %'t one that (ays second -dde to theU*S* Sti" the dogged sentiment of decining U*S* a'thority remains* Chinapredicts its econom) will o=ertake that o the '.S. ) "#$K. :1t the likes o the '..,Hrance, Perman), +apan, etc. will not simpl) t1rn aro1nd and s1pport China themoment its PD crosses some aritrar) threshold. Rich, ind1strialized nations arenot ao1t to li=e in an international s)stem dictated ) Chinese r1le. The U*S* andChina wi engage in (enty of (ower str'gges in the coming decades99%'tit is 'nikey that China wi chaenge U*S* a'thority and garner s'((ort

from the word8s ind'striaized nations* The U*S*" regardess of its faiings"rightf'y hods -rmy its in4'ence o+er word +a'es" and wi do soinde-nitey" regardess of its economic and miitary strength in reation toChina* &midst economic crises and an em%arrassing era of (oiticadysf'nction ASee go+ernment sh'tdownB" the U*S* remains the word8sony s'(er(ower* An 1phea=al o the international power d)namic, in this cent1r),re1ires more than economic or militar) mi3ht. Ft re1ires democratic =al1es,respectale allies, and an appreciation o h1man ri3hts. &nd 'nti China can (assthese tests" the U*S* is in no danger of osing its aies or in4'ence*

china eaders ha+e no interest in chaenging US hegChen 1)(Din3din3 Chen is an assistant proessor o Po=ernment and 1licAdministration at the 'ni=ersit) o 9aca1800mmhttp/00thediplomat.com0"#$%0#$0relaM!china!wont!challen3e!1s!he3emon)0Needless to sa), the Sino!'.S. relationship is one o the most important )etcomplicated ilateral relationships in the world toda). This eMplains wh) ChineseWice remier an3 Yan3Es recent comments on Sino!'.S. relations ha=e stirred 1p adeate online (here and here8. an3 Yan3 stated that China Mhas neither thea%iity nor the intent to chaenge the United States*N Party %eca'se it israre for a senior Chinese eader to make s'ch soft remarks with regard toSino9U*S* reations and (arty %eca'se Wang.s remarks are seemingyinconsistent with China.s recent asserti+e foreign (oicies" there has %eena -erce de%ate a%o't the tr'e meaning of Wang.s remarks in the UnitedStates. 9ost American anal)sts, howe=er, are skeptical toward an3Es conciliator)remarks and contin1e to elie=e that ChinaEs 1ltimate aim is to estalish a China!centric order in Asia at the eMpense o the '.S. in<1ence in Asia. Fn other words,China seeks to replace the '.S. as the new 3loal he3emon. The reactions rom the'.S. side, a3ain, re=eal the deep mistr1st with re3ard to ChinaEs lon3 term 3oals.:1t s1ch skepticism is mis31ided and e=en dan3ero1s to AsiaEs peace and stailit)i let 1ncorrected. h)4 :eca1se Wang ang was sincere when he said thatChina does not ha+e the ca(a%iities and desires to chaenge the United



States* The e+idence of his sincerity is a((arent* >irst et 's ook atChina.s ca(a%iities" which need to %e es(eciay formida%e if China wantsto chaenge the United States* &tho'gh China.s com(rehensi+eca(a%iities ha+e %een growing ra(idy for the (ast three decades" amosta anaysts inside and o'tside of China agree that there is sti a h'ge ga(%etween China and the U*S* in terms of com(rehensi+e ca(a%iities"

(artic'ary when the U*S* is far ahead of China in miitary andtechnoogica reams* China.s economy might ha+e aready (assed the U*S*economy as the argest one in 2#1<" %'t the 'aity of China.s economysti remains a ma$or weakness for Lei$ing* Th's" it wo'd %e a serio'smistake for China to chaenge the U*S* directy gi+en the wide ga( ofca(a%iities %etween the two* E+en if one day China.s com(rehensi+eca(a%iities catch '( with the United States" it wo'd sti %e a h'gemistake for China to chaenge the U*S* %eca'se %y then the twoeconomies wo'd %e m'ch more cosey interconnected" creating asit'ation of m't'a de(endence %ene-ting %oth co'ntries* Lesides imitedca(a%iities" China aso has imited am%itions which ha+e not %een(ro(ery 'nderstood %y many U*S* anaysts. Ft is tr1e that ChinaEs 3rand

strate3) is to realize the ?China dreamB — a dream that will rin3 wealth, 3lor), andpower to China a3ain — %'t this" %y no means" s'ggests that China wants to%ecome a hegemon in &sia" or to create a Sino9centric tri%'tary systemaro'nd which a smaer states m'st o%ey China.s orders* Perha(s these(erce(tions e,ist in the United States %eca'se many U*S* anaysts ha+e'nconscio'sy et 'tra9reaist thinking si( into their minds" there%y%eie+ing that states are constanty engaged in the r'thess ('rs'it of(ower and in4'ence* :1t the str1ct1re o international politics has 1ndamentall)chan3ed since the end o the Cold ar, th1s renderin3 an) serio1s possiilit) oworld he3emon) inefecti=e or e=en impossile. Fn essence, the costs o he3emon)o1twei3h the ene>ts o he3emon) in this new era o international politics, thanksto risin3 nationalism, n1clear weapons, and increasin3 economic interdependenceetween ma2or powers* The Chinese eaders 'nderstand this new andchanged str'ct're of internationa (oitics and %ased on theirassessments" they ha+e decided not to seek hegemony" which is a osing%'siness in this new era. 'nort1natel), the '.S. is still osessed with theconcept (or ill1sion8 o he3emon), as Simon Reich and Richard Ned ;eow ha=epointed o1t recentl). The he3emon) mentalit) is precisel) the reason wh) the'nited States has declined (slowl)8 in the post!Cold ar era. ron3l) elie=in3 thata stale 3loal order needs '.S. he3emon), American leaders ha=e adopted a 3randstrate3) o lieral inter=entionism, which has onl) ca1sed sel!in<icted wo1nds orthe '.S. econom) and its 3loal stat1s. The tra3ed), howe=er, is that within '.S.elite circles, this misperception ao1t '.S. he3emon) (here and here8 sticks and is1nlikel) to 3o awa) or a lon3 time arrin3 a ma2or ail1re or crisis * &t the end ofthe day" o'r word can s'r+i+e and (ros(er witho't a hegemon" regardessof whether the hegemon is &merican or Chinese* The sooner &mericaneaders 'nderstand this (oint and %eie+e Chinese eaders. words" thehigher the chances of (eace and sta%iity wordwide*



US heg is here to staySal=atore La%ones 0/110$% (Salvatore Babones is an associate professor ofsociology and social policy at the University of Sydney. He is a comparativesociologist who writes on comparative international development and onquantitative methods for the social sciences.8http/00nationalinterest.or30eat1re0american!he3emon)!here!sta)!$*#LKFS RTRAT rom 3loal he3emon) in AmericaEs national interest4 No idea haspercolated more widel) o=er the past decade—and none is more o31s. The 'nitedStates is not headed or the skids and there is no reason it sho1ld e. The tr'th isthat &merica can and sho'd seek to remain the word.s to( dog* The ideaof &merican hegemony is as od as Len$amin >rankin" %'t has its (racticaroots in Word War DD* The United States emerged from that war as thedominant economic" (oitica and technoogica (ower* The onl) ma2orcomatant to a=oid serio1s dama3e to its inrastr1ct1re, its ho1sin3 stock or itsdemo3raphic pro>le, the 'nited States ended the war with the 3reatest na=al ordero attle e=er seen in the histor) o the world. Ft ecame the postwar home o the'nited Nations, the Fnternational 9onetar) H1nd and the orld :ank. And, o co1rse,the 'nited States had the om. &merica was" in e+ery sense of the word" ahegemon* MHegemonyN is a word 'sed %y socia scientists to descri%eeadershi( within a system of com(eting states* The ;reek historianTh'cydides 'sed the term to characterize the (osition of &thens in the;reek word in the midde of the -fth cent'ry LC. Athens had the 3reatest<eet in the 9editerranean- it was the home o Socrates and lato, Sophocles andAesch)l1s- it crowned its central Acropolis with the solid!marle temple to Athenaknown to histor) as the arthenon. Athens had a power1l ri=al in Sparta, 1t no onedo1ted that Athens was the he3emon o the time 1ntil Sparta deeated it in a ittertwent)!se=en!)ear war. AmericaEs onl) 3loal ri=al in the twentieth cent1r) was theSo=iet 'nion. The So+iet Union ne+er (rod'ced more than a%o't haf of&merica.s tota nationa o't('t* Dts nomina aies in Eastern E'ro(e werein fact resti+e occ'(ied co'ntries" as were many of its constit'entre('%ics* Dts cient states o+erseas were at %est (artners of con+enience"and at worst e,(ensi+e drains on its imited reso'rces. The So=iet 'nion hadthe power to resist American he3emon), 1t not to displace it. Ft had the om andan impressi=e space pro3ram, 1t little else. hen the So=iet 'nion >nall)disinte3rated in $KK$, American he3emon) was complete. The United States satat the to( of the internationa system" facing no serio's ri+as for go%aeadershi(* This M'ni(oar momentN asted a mere decade* Se(tem%er 11"2##1" signaed the emergence of a new kind of threat to go%a sta%iity"and the ens'ing rise of China and reemergence of G'ssia ('t (aid to theera of 'nchaenged &merican eadershi(* Jow" &merica.s interna (oiticsha+e deadocked and the U*S* go+ernment shrinks from (aying the roe of

go%a (oiceman* Dn the second decade of the twenty9-rst cent'ry"&merican hegemony is widey (ercei+ed to %e in termina decine*

U*S* (rimacy is s'staina%e e #) (9in, h.D Candidate, rinceton 'ni=ersit), ?The '.S. Oe3emon) andFmplication or China,B +an *#, http/00www.chinaipa.or30cpa0=$i$0aper5Ye.pd, +O8Clearl) Watz arg'ed that the 'ni(oarity in the wake of the Cod War wastem(orary* Hor one, nations rise and decine* The U*S relati=e (ower wi decineand it wi increasingy %ecome di3c't for it to (reser+e 'ni(oarity, as



Roert Pilpin ar31ed. H1rthermore, other nations wi come into each other. aid to%aance against the U*S" %eca'se minor states fee safer to %e with otherminor states. Watz.s (rediction may not hod, howe=er, if we consider thefoowing as(ects of U*S (ower* >irst, rom the a33re3ate power perspecti=e, the U*S issim(y too (owerf' for the other nations to catch '(. illiam ohlorth has done a

comprehensi=e empirical st1d) o '.S power, and concl1ded that U*S has enormo's s'(remacy in

a as(ects of miitary (ower and amost a as(ects of economic (ower aswe, not to mention its normati+e and c't'ra (owers* Oe aso pointed o1t theU*S is a M%enign hegemonN and it is in the word.s %ene-t for its (resence*

Similarl), +oanne Powa oser=ed that aies of the U*S %ene-ted from trading with theU*S" hence it is in the nations. interest to ha+e an end'ring U*S hegemony.

Second, aiance against the U*S is 'nikey and ine=ecti+e* Stephen alt has listedthe ca1ses or alliance ormation. Alliances orm not to alance the i33est power 1t to alance a3ainst thei33est threat. Threat, in t1rn, is determined ) ($8 a33re3ate power, ("8 3eo3raphic proMimit), (*8 ofensi=e power,

and (G8 a33ressi=e intention. The U*S is distant from a ma$or (owers geogra(hicay"atho'gh the most (owerf' nation in the word* Clearl) the U*S does notdemonstrate aggressi+e intentions against other ma$or (owers* Hence their

%aancing against the U*S is 'nikey* ohlorth oser=ed that the other ma$or

(owers %efore they %aance against the U*S face co'nter%aancing of theirown* China was (ercei+ed as a (otentia %aancer of the U*S in man) cases. et,

China faces co'nter%aancing from Taiwan" ?orea" a(an" G'ssia" and Dndiain the &sian continent aone* Simiary" the other ma$or (owers— G'ssia" a(an" Dndia" and E'ro(e—ha+e more di3c'ties deaing with theirreationshi(s than their reations with the U*S* Fn elie, the &mericanhegemon not ony does not face s'%stantia %aancing %'t ser+e as a%aancer against others. %aancing actions* &s a res't" we see moreM%andwagoningN with the U*S s'(er(ower rather than M%aancingN* >inay,

as +ohn Fkenerr) and other scholars oser=ed, the U*S 'ni(oarity is a hegemony %ased onMconstit'tiona orderN* &t the end of the Word War DD" aongside itss'(remacy in (ower" the U*S aso esta%ished the UJ" D>" Word Lank" and

other instit'tions in deaing with wea(ons (roiferation and managingreations with aies* U*S e,ercise of (ower was sef restraint thro'gh itsmem%ershi(s in the internationa instit'tions* Conse'enty" the othernations in the word can not ony %ene-t from this constit'tiona order %'tto an e,tent e,ercise checks on the soe s'(er(ower and fee safer e+en inthe 'ni(oar word*



&2 Heg Ca'ses Con4ict

U*S* withdrawa is worse than the stat's 'oFescaation andeconomic coa(se wo'd draw wi ca'se m'ti(e escaatory

con4icts go%ay dragging the United States %ack into con4ictRoert +. 5ie%er (roessor o Po=ernment and Fnternational Afairs ^ Peor3etown'ni=ersit)8 2##) The American ra/ ower and Strate3) or the "$st Cent1r) p %*!GWithdrawa from foreign commitments might seem to %e a means ofe+ading hostiity toward the United States" %'t the conse1ences wo1ldalmost certainl) e harm1l oth to re3ional stailit) and to '.S. national interests.Altho13h 1rope wo1ld almost certainl) not see the ret1rn to competiti=e alancin3amon3 re3ional powers (i.e., competition and e=en militar) ri=alr) etween Hranceand Perman)8 o the kind that some realist scholars o international relations ha=epredicted,"$ elsewhere the dangers co'd increase. Fn Asia, a(an" So'th?orea" and Taiwan word ha+e strong moti+ation to ac'ire n'cearwea(ons — which the) ha=e the technolo3ical capacit) to do 1ite 'icky*

Dnsta%iity and regiona com(etition co'd aso escaate, not onl) %etweenDndia and Pakistan" %'t also in So1theast Asia in=ol=in3 Oietnam" Thaiand"Dndonesia" and possil) the Phii((ines* Gisks in the idde East wo'd %eikey to increase" with regiona com(etition among the ma2or co1ntries o theP1l re3ion (Dran" Sa'di &ra%ia" and DraB as we as Egy(t" Syria" and Dsrae*a$or regiona wars" e+ent'ay in+o+ing the 'se of wea(ons of massdestr'ction ('s h'man s'=ering on a +ast scae" 4oods of ref'gees"economic disr'(tion" and risks to oi s'((ies are a readiy concei+a%e*Lased on (ast e,(erience" the United States wo'd amost certainy %edrawn %ack into these areas" whether to defend friendy states" to co(ewith a h'manitarian catastro(he" or to (re+ent a hostie (ower fromdominating an entire region. Ste=en eter Rosen has th1s >ttin3l) oser=ed, ?F

the lo3ic o American empire is 1nappealin3, it is not at all clear that thealternati=es are that m1ch more attracti=e.B"" Similarl), Niall Her31son has addedthat those who dislike American predominance o13ht to ear in mind that theaternati+e may not %e a word of com(eting great (owers" %'t one withno hegemon at a. Her31sonEs warnin3 ma) e h)perolic, 1t it hints at theperils that the asence o a dominant power, Ma(oarity"N co'd %ring Mananarchic new 6ark &ge o wanin3 empires and reli3io1s anaticism- o endemicpl1nder and pilla3e in the worldEs or3otten re3ions- of economic stagnation andci+iization.s retreat into a few forti-ed enca+es.B"*

U*S* withdrawa wo'd ea+e %ehind a (ower +ac''m" s('rring

terrorism" economic t'rmoi and m'ti(e n'cear wars*Niall >erg'son, +1l)0A131st 2##< ?A orld itho1t ower,B H@RFPN @;FCY Fss1e$G*So what is let4 Waning em(ires* Geigio's re+i+as* Dnci(ient anarchy. Acomin3 retreat into orti>ed cities. These are the 6ark &ge e,(eriences that aword witho't a hy(er(ower might 'icky -nd itsef rei+ing. The tro1le is,o co1rse, that this Dark A3e wo1ld e an alto3ether more dan3ero1s one than theDark A3e o the ninth cent1r). Hor the world is m1ch more pop1lo1s!ro13hl) "#



times more!!so friction etween the worldQs disparate &tries& is %o'nd to %emore fre'ent. Technolo3) has transormed prod1ction- now h1man societiesdepend not merel) on reshwater and the har=est 1t also on s1pplies o ossil 1elsthat are known to e >nite. Technoogy has '(graded destr'ction, too, so it isnow possile not 21st to sack a cit) 1t to oliterate it. Hor more than two decades,3loalization!!the inte3ration o world markets or commodities, laor, and capital!!

has raised li=in3 standards thro13ho1t the world, eMcept where co1ntries ha=e sh1tthemsel=es of rom the process thro13h t)rann) or ci=il war. The re+ersa ofgo%aization99which a new 6ark &ge wo'd (rod'ce99wo'd certainy eadto economic stagnation and e+en de(ression. As the 'nited States so13ht toprotect itsel ater a second Septemer $$ de=astates, sa), Oo1ston or Chica3o, itwo1ld ine=ital) ecome a less open societ), less hospitale or orei3ners seekin3to work, =isit, or do 1siness. 9eanwhile, as E'ro(e8s 'sim enca+es grew"Dsamist e,tremists8 in-tration of the EU wo'd %ecome irre+ersi%e"increasing trans9&tantic tensions o+er the idde East to the %reaking(oint* &n economic metdown in China wo'd ('nge the Comm'nistsystem into crisis" 'neashing the centrif'ga forces that 'ndermined(re+io's Chinese em(ires. estern in=estors wo1ld lose o1t and concl1de that

lower ret1rns at home are preerale to the risks o dea1lt aroad. The worstefects o the new Dark A3e wo1ld e elt on the ed3es o the wanin3 3reat powers.The weathiest (orts of the go%a economy99from Jew ork to Gotterdamto Shanghai99wo'd %ecome the targets of ('nderers and (irates. ithease, terrorists co1ld disr1pt the reedom o the seas, tar3etin3 oil tankers, aircratcarriers, and cr1ise liners, while estern nations ranticall) concentrated on makin3their airports sec1re. 9eanwhile, limited n'cear wars co'd de+astaten'mero's regions" %eginning in the ?orean (enins'a and ?ashmir"(erha(s ending catastro(hicay in the idde East. Fn ;atin America,wretchedl) poor citizens wo1ld seek solace in =an3elical Christianit) imported )'.S. reli3io1s orders. Fn Arica, the great (ag'es of aids and maaria wo'dcontin'e their deady work . The ew remainin3 sol=ent airlines wo1ld simpl)s1spend ser=ices to man) cities in these continents- who wo1ld wish to lea=e theirpri=atel) 31arded sae ha=ens to 3o there4 Hor all these reasons, the (ros(ect ofan a(oar word sho'd frighten 's today a great dea more than itfrightened the heirs of Charemagne* Df the United States retreats fromgo%a hegemony!!its ra3ile sel!ima3e dented ) minor setacks on the imperialrontier!!its critics at home and a%road m'st not (retend that they are'shering in a new era of m'ti(oar harmony" or e+en a ret'rn to the goodod %aance of (ower. :e care1l what )o1 wish or. The aternati+e to'ni(oarity wo'd not %e m'ti(oarity at a* Dt wo'd %e a(oarity99a go%a+ac''m of (ower* &nd far more dangero's forces than ri+a great (owerswo'd %ene-t from s'ch a not9so9new word disorder.

'ti(oarity is worse and transition wi %e ro'gh E+en if ama$or (ower $oined they wi not re(ace &merican eadershi(\i3niew Lrzezinski (Co1nselor at the Center or Strate3ic and FnternationalSt1dies and a proessor o orei3n polic) ^ +ohns Oopkins8 2##< ?The Choice/Ploal Domination or Ploal ;eadershipB p "!GFn an) case, the e+ent'a end of &merican hegemony wi not in+o+e arestoration of m'ti(oarity among the famiiar ma$or (owers that



dominated world afairs or the last two cent1ries. Jor wi it yied to anotherdominant hegemon that wo'd dis(ace the United States ) ass1min3 asimilar political, militar), economic, technolo3ical, and socioc1lt1ral worldwidepreeminence. The famiiar (owers of the ast cent'ry are too fatig'ed or tooweak to ass'me the roe the United States now (ays. Ft is noteworth) thatsince $LL#, in a comparati=e rankin3 o world powers (c1m1lati=el) ased on their

economic stren3th, militar) 1d3ets and assets, pop1lations, etc.8, the top >=e slotsat se1ential twent)!)ear inter=als ha=e een shared ) 21st se=en states/ the'nited States, the 'nited in3dom, Perman), Hrance, R1ssia, +apan, and Ch1la. @nl)the 'nited States, howe=er, 1nami31o1sl) earned incl1sion amon3 the top >=e ine=er)one o the twent)!)ear inter=als, and the 3ap in the )ear "### etween thetop!ranked 'nited States and the rest was =astl) wider than e=er eore.Q Theformer ma$or E'ro(ean (owers—;reat Lritain" ;ermany" and >rance—aretoo weak to ste( into the %reach. Fn the neMt two decades, it is 'ite 'nikeythat the E'ro(ean Union wi %ecome s'3cienty 'nited (oiticay tom'ster the (o('ar wi to com(ete with the United States in the (oitico9miitary arena* G'ssia is no onger an im(eria (ower" and its centrachaenge is to reco+er socioeconomicay est it ose its far eastern

territories to China* a(an8s (o('ation is aging and its economy hassowed- the con=entional wisdom o the $KL#s that +apan is destined to e the neMt&s1perstate& now has the rin3 o historical iron). China" e+en if it s'cceeds inmaintaining high rates of economic growth and retains its interna(oitica sta%iity A%oth are far from certainB" wi at %est %e a regiona(ower sti constrained %y an im(o+erished (o('ation" anti'atedinfrastr'ct're" and imited a((ea wordwide. The same is tr1e of Dndia, whichadditionay faces 'ncertainties regarding its ong9term nationa 'nity*E+en a coaition among the a%o+e—a most 'nikey (ros(ect" gi+en theirhistorica con4icts and cashing territoria caims—wo'd ack thecohesion" m'sce" and energy needed to %oth ('sh &merica o= its(edesta and s1stain 3loal stailit). Some eading states, in an) case, wo'dside with &merica if ('sh came to sho+e* Dndeed" any e+ident &mericandecine might (reci(itate e=orts to reinforce &merica8s eadershi(* 9ostimportant, the shared resentment o American he3emon) wo1ld not dampen thedashes o interest amon3 states. The more intense collisions—in the e=ent oAmericaQs decline—co1ld spark a wild>re o re3ional =iolence, rendered all the moredan3ero1sl) the dissemination o weapons o mass destr1ction.

U*S* (rimacy so+es n'cear warThayer #7 (:radle) A.- Associate roessor in the Dept. o Deense and Strate3icSt1dies at 9isso1ri State 'ni=ersit)- American mpire/ A Deate Z Repl) toChristopher ;ane/ The Stren3th o American mpire- p3 $#*8Df the United States ado(ted o=shore %aancing" many of those aieswo'd terminate their reationshi( with the United States. They wo'd %eforced to increase their own armaments" ac'ire n'cear wea(ons" and(erha(s ay against the United States" e+en aiming their n'cear wea(onsat the United States* Dn those circ'mstances" the United States wo'd %efar ess sec're and m'ch worse of than it is now. That mi3ht e the 1t1re ithe 'nited States chan3ed its 3rand strate3). To e s1re, at present the 'nitedStates is a 3reat all). Ft is rich and power1l, with man) allies all o=er the world. Dt



wieds enormo's in4'ence in internationa instit'tions as we* When ago%a (ro%em arises" co'ntries t'rn to the United States to so+e it*



6isease



6isease E,tensions

The %'%onic (ag'e is aready infecting h'ndredsDana Do=e) ^6anado+ey 1), $!"L!"#$%, &hat Yo1 Need To now Ao1t9ada3ascarQs :1onic la31e @1treak,& 9edical Dail),http/00www.medicaldail).com01onic!pla31e!"#$%!mada3ascars!c1rrent!pla31e!more!=ir1lent!strain!dark!a3es!*$KKGNo, )o1 did not misread the headline to this stor). Jot ony does the %'%onic (ag'e stie,ist" %'t it.s infected h'ndreds of indi+id'as on the isand ofadagascar" o= the coast of &frica* Dn fact" this is neary an ann'aocc'rrence for the isand nation* Unike the (ag'e of the (ast" howe+er"this form is not ony harder to contain %'t can ki neary 2< ho'rs afterinitia e,(os're* The :lack Death At one point in time the 1onic pla31e was the sin3le most terri)in3disease on the planet. Also known as the :lack Death, this acterial inection literall) shaped 1rope into thecontinent we reco3nize toda) ater killin3 of an 1nelie=ale 7# percent o its pop1lation in the $Gth cent1r). ;ikeall thin3s in lie, howe=er, the rei3n o the :lack Death co1ld not last ore=er, and toda), thanks to recent medicine,it is arel) a shadow o its ormer sel. 9odern medicine has made it so that the pla31e that once killed siM in $#people now has an L% percent s1r=i=al rate. The pla31e is ca1sed ) a acteri1m o1nd mainl) in rodents, and

eca1se itEs impossile (and not ad=isale8 to kill e=er) rat on the planet, itEs likel) that remnants o the pla31e willpersist ore=er. hile the random occ1rrence o the pla31e is eMpected, o1treaks are completel) 1nnecessar),

accordin3 to orld Oealth @r3anization director 9ar3aret Chan, and they8re what the WHI @wasdesigned to contain*@ So far" they ha+en.t %een a%e to do a +ery good $o%of this* The death rate of the (ag'es has neary do'%ed since theo't%reak -rst %egan in Jo+em%er of ast year" Ge'ters re(orted* As reported )

Wice, the pla31e, has, well, pla31ed 9ada3ascar on a near ann1al asis since the earl) $KK#s* adagascaris not aone in its (ag'e res'rgence" tho'gh" since e+en (aces asde+eo(ed as Jew ork City are home to rat s(ecies known to carry the(athogen* Oowe=er, the widespread po=ert), 1nplanned 1ranization, and poor health care in 9ada3ascar has

helped to propel a ew isolated instances o the 1onic pla31e into a 1ll!lown o1treak. =en worse, theWHI warns that if something isn.t done fast the s(read of the (ag'e in

'r%an areas of the co'ntries wi ra(idy increase* h) The Rest @ The orld Sho1ld :eConcerned 'nort1natel), it seems that the preser=ation o h1man lie is not eno13h or an e=ent to 3ain

widespread reco3nition. Still, this form of the (ag'e is not yo'r a+erage %acteriainfection" and it8s %est to sto( it %efore it reaches (andemic (ro(ortions*Ine of the most Mdist'r%ing dimensionsN of the c'rrent o't%reak , accordin3 to

Chan, is that the s(ecies of 4eas which carry it ha+e de+eo(ed an imm'nityagainst the insecticide detamethrin* In to( of %eing imm'ne to o'r -rstine of defense" this form of the (ag'e" the (ne'monic (ag'e kis withincredi%e s(eed* Within 2< ho'rs of %eing infected death is a high(ossi%iity* :ack in No=emer, onl) aro1nd two percent o reported pla31e cases were o the pne1monic orm,

1t Wice reported this n1mer has since risen. The (ne'monic (ag'e aso doesn.t need a4ea host to s(read and can %e transmitted from (erson to (erson +iaco'ghing* @Ft doesnQt spread 1ite as m1ch as the <1 in this case,& Dr. Stephen 9orse, epidemiolo3) proessorat Col1mia 'ni=ersit), told Wice, addin3 that it itQs a &m1ch more eIcient transmission method than ein3 itten) <eas.& arl) inter=ention is the est et in oth treatin3 and pre=entin3 the spread o the pla31e. FtEs eenreported that to3ether, the O@ and the local partner it s1pports, Fnstit1t aste1r, ha=e created an ineMpensi=e testthat rin3s ack a pla31e dia3nosis in $% min1tes. Oope1ll), this will help to red1ce the death toll and control thespread o the condition



Df a new (andemic %reaks o't in the U*S* we wi %edefenseessLear1<, $!*$!"#$G, &Co1ld the la31e Ret1rn to ill 1s All4,& 9)sterio1s 'ni=erse,http/00m)sterio1s1ni=erse.or30"#$G0#$0co1ld!the!pla31e!ret1rn!to!kill!1s!all0FtEs eas) to re=el in the knowled3e that s1ch a scenario is >ction howe=er a new report p1lished in the +an1ar)"#$G edition o the 2o1rnal ;ancet Fnectio1s Disease spec1lates that the de=astatin3 :1onic la31es o the past

co1ld ret1rn with de=astatin3 orce. h) rin3 this 1p now4 CanEt we treat the acteria that ca1ses la31e withmodern antiiotics4 Yes, we can 1t an international team o researchers s133est that new strains of(ag'e %acteria" ersinia (estis" co'd s(ontaneo'sy rise again and wemay ha+e imited a%iity to -ght it* Com%ine that with o'r moderntrans(ort infrastr'ct're and it.s the (erfect storm for a (andemic ofgo%a (ro(ortions* As part o the st1d), researchers anal)sed the remains o two people who died romthe la31e o +1stinian which occ1rred etween %G$ and %G* A.D. ;ike the :lack Death o the $Gth cent1r) itsimpact 1pon societ) was o=erwhelmin3. Dist1rin3l), it was o1nd that two diferent strains o Yersinin pestis were

responsile or each pla31e. This means that these deady (athogens arose inde(endentytwice %efore" s'ggesting that it co'd ha((en again* Gight now" there may%e another deady strain waiting to s(ring '(on an o+ercon-dant and'ns's(ecting ('%ic* Whie %'%onic (ag'e is now treata%e" it co'd tearthro'gh de+eo(ing nations where access to heath care is signi-canty

red'ced* &dditionay" sho'd an o't%reak occ'r in a de+eo(ed nation" the+ir'ence of the (athogen co'd %e so great that it 'icky o+erwhems('%ic heath res(onse a%iities* Sho'd the new strain ha+e ac'iredantimicro%ai resistant genes" anti%iotics wi %e 'seess and we wi %e $'st as defenceess as peasents on $Gth cent1r) 1rope. DonEt think )o1 are sae 21st eca1se )o1 li=e ina de=eloped nation either. :1onic pla31e arose in S)dne) in the earl) $K##Es and as recentl) as "#$" in the 'S. Fnact there are $# to $% reported cases o 1onic pla31e in the 'S e=er) )ear accordin3 to the CDC

Pandemic (redication and e=orts are essentia9att ccarthy 1), $!K!"#$%, &These Wir1ses Co1ld Ca1se the NeMt ola!;ikeandemics,& Slate 9a3azine,http/00www.slate.com0articles0health5and5science0medical5eMaminer0"#$%0#$0prepar

in35or5pandemics5what5diseases5will5e5the5neMt5eolas.html The ola epidemic in est Arica isnEt o=er, 1t as it recedes rom the headlines,it.s time to consider what.s coming for 's ne,t* Pandemic (rediction isn.tchea(" %'t waiting for an o't%reak to ha((en can %e e+en more costy*Economic osses d'e to S&GS were estimated to %e anywhere from :1)%iion to more than :)# %iionV the cost of the E%oa o't%reak wi amostcertainy e,ceed that -g're* Ly contrast" 6aszak estimates that it wo'dcost a tota of :0*! %iion to disco+er a of the +ir'ses that infectmammas—a fraction of the cost re'ired to res(ond to a go%a (andemicike E%oa or S&GS—and that information wi 'timatey ead to %etterdisease monitoring" treatment" and (re+entati+e meas'res at the c's( ofthe ne,t o't%reak* Dt.s a massi+e endea+or" %'t a necessary one . @nce we

know whatEs o1t there, weEll e ale to >31re o1t whatEs comin3 or 1s.

U*S* disease (re(aredness is e,tremey owCinica &d+isor 1), *!"G!"#$%, &Po=ernments need to prepare or inectio1sdisease o1treaks,& http/00www.clinicalad=isor.com0news0inectio1s!disease!o1treak!ill!3ates!eola0article0G#%$L"0?Df anything kis o+er 1# miion (eo(e in the ne,t few decades" it8s mostikey to %e a highy infectio's +ir's" rather than a war,B :ill Pates told a crowd at a



TD Talk in Wanco1=er. To i'strate the ack of (re(aredness co'ntries ha+e toaddress a (otentia disease o't%reak" ;ates and associates %'it an E%oaTreatment Unit AETUB sim'ation* &'dience mem%ers were asked to ('t ona of the safety gear re'ired of a heath9care (ro+ider working in West&frica — and then take it o= witho't getting contaminated* Cinicians whohad worked in West &frica d'ring the e(idemic were there to he(

a'dience mem%ers 'nderstand the (rocess. The attendees were re1ired to 3i=e o1tplaceo pills, dress a cot with sheets, and set 1p an FW — all while donnin3 i3 r1er oots, a plastic s1it, mask,hood, and second set o 3lo=es and other protecti=e e1ipment. Nina Pre3or), o NR, was at the TD Talk andshared her eMperience/ ?hen F ca13ht si3ht o m) own re<ection — and saw those l1merin3 aro1nd in the mockT' s1ited 1p like this alon3 with me — it was 1nner=in3,B Pre3or) wrote. ?Fma3ine ein3 on the other side/ sick,d)in3 o ola, and this 3iant, anon)mo1s >31re with not one ra3ment o skin or hair showin3, is there to treat )o1,to tr) to sa=e )o1r lie.B &e wanted to 3i=e people the sensor) and =is1al limitations we had in workin3 in est

Arica,B ;1anne Hreer, an emer3enc) medicine doctor rom 9ontana told NR. ?Ince yo' ('t the s'iton" yo' ony ha+e # min'tes with yo'r (atients in the hot zone. %eca'se(eo(e wearing the (rotecti+e s'its are at risk of fainting*N My team hadto care for 1) (eo(e"@ said >reer* @Df o'r %odies wo'd ony et 's stay inthe hot zone for # min'tes" some of o'r (atients co'dn8t get care* Wewere faced with a So(hie8s Choice 6o D ea+e or do D feed that %a%yK &nd

we sho'd ne+er ha+e to make that choice*@

&merica needs to (re(are for diseases %etteralter Tso' 1<, $#!"L!"#$G, &;essons rom ola/ The Fnectio1s Disease ra, And

The Need To repare, ill Ne=er :e @=er,& No 1lication,http/00healthafairs.or30lo30"#$G0$#0"L0lessons!rom!eola!the!inectio1s!disease!era!and!the!need!to!prepare!will!ne=er!e!o=er0@ne thin3 F can sa) with certaint)/ E%oa wi not %e the ast or most deadyinfectio's disease o't%reak in &merica* The era of infectio's diseases isnot o+er and sho'd ne+er %e treated as s'ch* Dn the ('%ic heath word"we know that nat're reg'ary reminds 's of the h'%ris of ignoring

infectio's diseases* The onl) wa) to prepare or the neMt 1nknown o1treak is toconsistentl) s1pport p1lic health and health care s)stems. The U*S* E%oares(onse shows we need to rethink how the co'ntry is managing%ioogica threats* The a((ointment of an emergency9%asis E%oacoordinator was an im(ortant ste( — %'t it aso raised the fact thatthere.s a f'ndamenta ga( in the e,isting eadershi( str'ct're. Ftdemonstrated the need mo=in3 orward or the hite Oo1se to ha=e a permanent,1ll!time p1lic health leader — one who can lead a consistent and coordinated3o=ernment!wide approach to preparedness, and who can efecti=el) mana3epre=ention, response and reco=er) acti=ities or 1t1re crises, as well as theon3oin3, da)!to!da) inectio1s disease threats that we are treatin3 all too cas1all)as ro1tine. A stron3 leader wo1ld e ale to impro=e risk comm1nications to etter

inorm the p1lic as e=ents 1nold in an honest, respect1l wa), there) 31ardin3a3ainst 3rat1ito1s ear mon3erin3 and clari)in3 what the 3o=ernment act1all) canor cannot do (=ers1s the pri=ate health care s)stemEs role in estalishin3 andmaintainin3 inection control, treatment and trainin3 practices in hospitals andacilities8. Whie the E%oa crisis raises many concerns" it aso shows howm'ch the rest of the word t'rns to and reies on the United States for thee,(ertise and eadershi( — from the Centers for 6isease Contro andPre+ention to the Jationa Dnstit'tes of Heath to medica and ('%icheath e,(erts — to manage serio's go%a infectio's threats. :1t, witho1t



s1Icient and s1stained in=estments, o1r deenses and capailities alter, and o1rcomplacenc) ecomes o1r i33est threat.



&2 Circ'm+ention F Gog'eThe JS& is not a rog'e agency F its acti+ities are o+erseen andre(orted

5owry )/20 (Rich ;owr), editor o National Re=iew, ?The 1n!scar) tr1th ao1tNSA _sp)in3EB, %0"70$%, http/00n)post.com0"#$%0#%0"70the!1n!scar)!tr1th!ao1t!nsa!sp)in308F the National Sec1rit) A3enc)Es 1lk data pro3ram eMpires, the coroner sho1ld concl1de that it was ?Death )

:1mper Sticker.B Garey has a contro+ersia go+ernment (rogram %een so-ercey de%ated and so (oory 'nderstood* A1thorized ) soon!to!eMpire Section "$% o theatriot Act, it has een ro13ht to the ed3e o eMtinction ) a co1ple o simple 1t inacc1rate phrases, incl1din3?listenin3 to )o1r phone callsB and ?domestic sp)in3.B Yo1 can listen to orations on the NSA pro3ram or ho1rs ande o1tra3ed ) its =iolation o o1r lierties, inspired ) the 3lories o the Ho1rth Amendment and prepared to mo1ntthe arricades to stop the NSA in its tracks — and still ha=e no idea what the pro3ram act1all) does. ThatEs what

the opponents lea=e o1t or distort, since their case against the (rogram %ecomes som'ch ess com(eing '(on 4eeting contact with reaity* The pro3ram in=ol=es so!!

called metadata, inormation ao1t phone calls, 1t not the content o the calls — thin3s like the n1mers

called, the time o the call, the d1ration o the call. The phone companies ha=e all this inormation, which the NSAac1ires rom them. hat happens neMt proal) wonEt shock )o1, and it sho1ldnEt. As Rachel :rand o the ri=ac)

and Ci=il ;ierties @=ersi3ht :oard writes, ?Ft is stored in a data%ase that may %e searchedony %y a handf' of trained em(oyees" and e+en they may search it onyafter a $'dge has determined that there is e+idence connecting a s(eci-c(hone n'm%er to terrorism*B The char3e o domestic sp)in3 is redolent o the da)s when +. d3ar

Ooo=er tar3eted and harassed 9artin ;1ther in3 +r. Jot ony is there zero e+idence of anys'ch a%'se" it isn.t e+en (ossi%e %ased on the JS& data%ase aone* Thereare no names with the n'm%ers. As ormer prosec1tor Andrew C. 9cCarth) points o1t,

whitepa3es.com has more personal identi)in3 inormation. The JS& is hardy a rog'e agency*Dts (rogram is o+erseen %y a s(ecia (ane of $'dges" and it has %riefedCongress a%o't its (rogram for years* Dn the conte,t of a that is known

a%o't 's %y (ri+ate com(anies" the JS& is a (iker* Take the retailer Tar3et, or eMample.

Accordin3 to The New York Times, it collects )o1r ?demo3raphic inormation like )o1r a3e, whether )o1 are marriedand ha=e kids, which part o town )o1 li=e in, how lon3 it takes )o1 to dri=e to the store, )o1r estimated salar),whether )o1E=e mo=ed recentl), what credit cards )o1 carr) in )o1r wallet and what e sites )o1 =isit.B @ co1rse,the Ho1rth Amendment applies to the 3o=ernment, not pri=ate entities like Tar3et. The amendment protects a3ainst1nreasonale searches and seiz1res o o1r ?persons, ho1ses, papers, and efects.B F the NSA were reakin3 intohomes and seizin3 metadata that people had care1ll) hidden awa) rom pr)in3 e)es, it wo1ld e in <a3rant=iolation o the Ho1rth Amendment. :1t no one is in possession o his or her own metadata. =en i the NSA didnEt

eMist, metadata wo1ld e controlled ) someone else, the phone companies. The S'(reme Co'rt hashed that yo' don.t ha+e an e,(ectation of (ri+acy for s'ch information inthe (ossession of a third (arty* @ne ri3htenin3 wa) to look at mail deli=er) is that a3ents o the

state eMamine and handle the correspondence o co1ntless o millions o Americans. They aren.t+ioating anyone.s >o'rth &mendment rights, tho13h, eca1se no one eMpects the o1tsideo their en=elopes to e pri=ate. There are le3itimate criticisms o the NSA pro3ram. Ft c1rrentl) han3s on =a31ephrasin3 in the atriot Act. Con3ress sho1ld make it 1nmistakale that it is a1thorizin3 eMactl) what the NSA is

doin3. :1t the (rogram doesn.t deser+e the ignominy that has it in s'ch(oitica (eri* The Ho'se has (assed a reform that might render the(rogram 'nworka%e, and the Senate hasnEt )et een ale to act. Ft is hard to match the power o a1mper sticker.



JS& acti+ities are %eing thoro'ghy o+erseen %y >DS& andother co'rtsSchanger 1) (9ar3o Schlan3er, roessor o ;aw at the 'ni=ersit) o 9ichi3an;aw School, ?Fntelli3ence ;e3alism and the National Sec1rit) A3enc)Qs Ci=il ;iertiesPap,B Her1ar) "#$%, http/00har=ardns2.or30wp!

content01ploads0"#$%0#"0Schlan3er.pd 8 The opinions s133est that the co'rt is s'(er+ising the s'r+eiance (rocess withcose attention — 1t not ad21dicatin3 its merit. And in some wa)s, that a((roach is inherentin the $'dicia roe* F ha=e distin31ished thro13ho1t this Article etween ?ri3htsB or ?complianceB or ?lawBon the one hand, and ?interestsB or ?alancin3B or ?polic)B on the other. Co1rts, incl1din3 the HFSA Co1rt, sit on thelaw side o that di=ide. The d)namics o 21dicial law ! prono1ncement are, howe=er, =er) diferent than or eMec1ti=ecompliance work. Mec1ti=e ranch law)ersE role commits them to the search or ?_)esE when it can e,B e=en ithe) are sim1ltaneo1sl) capale o deli=erin3 ?_noE when it m1st e.B And eMec1ti=e law)ers tend to consider their

clientsE preerences close to indin3 on polic) iss1es, when s1ch iss1e arise. 'dges, ) contrast, %eginwith a norm of im(artiaity rather than cient ser+ice" and are far essconstrained with res(ect to whate+er (oicy iss'es %ear on their egadecision9making" as we as with res(ect to ega inter(retation itsef* Th'sthe >DS& Co'rt co'd ser+e as a %ody that engages in the Msho'dN

'estion" at east to some e,tent" as (art of the ega inter(reti+e (rocess*Ither co'rts e,amining the (ermissi%iity of the JS&.s >DS& s'r+eianceha+e done $'st that* ""L That the HFSA Co1rt did not take on the ?sho1ldB 1estion in an) si3ni>cantwa), prior to the Snowden disclos1res, ma) e in part d1e to the asence o ad=ersarial rie>n3 , as elaorated1pon in art FW . ""K :1t m) sense is that one ! sided rie>n3 is onl) part o the eMplanation. The HFSA Co1rtEs one !part) proced1res ha=e a deeper impact, as well. The eM parte modalit) alters not 21st who comm1nicates with theco1rt 1t how the 3o=ernment and co1rt comm1nicate with each other. Sometimes HFSA 21d3es make theirin<1ence elt ) the traditional 21dicial process o iss1in3 a decision/ the "##K order s1spendin3 the NSAEs access tointernet metadata "*# is one eMample. :1t m1ch more oten, acilitated ) the eM parte nat1re o the proceedin3s,

it seems that the co1rtEs =iews are deli=ered in the orm o less ormal ad=ice to the 3o=ernment. I6JD;enera Co'nse Go%ert 5itt e,(ained in congressiona testimony in 2#1!When we (re(are an a((ication for a >DS& order" whether itEs 1nder Section #" U ora traditional HFSA warrantU, we >rst s1mit to the co1rt whatEs called a read cop), which the co1rt staf will re=iew

and comment on. And they wi amost in+aria%y come %ack with 'estions"

concerns" (ro%ems that they see" and there.s an iterati+e (rocess %ackand forth %etween the go+ernment and the >DS& co'rt to take care ofthose concerns so that at the end of the day we.re con-dent that we.re(resenting something that the >DS& Co'rt wi a((ro+e* That is hardy ar'%%er stam(* Dt.s rather e,tensi+e and serio's $'dicia o+ersight of this(rocess*

http://harvardnsj.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Schlanger.pdf






&2 China >DT CP



So+ency 6e-cits

The Liatera Trade Dn+estment wo'd not so+e* China wo'dtake ad+antage of US com(anies*

Scissors 1<Derek, a resident scholar at the American nterprise Fnstit1te (AF8, where hest1dies Asian economic iss1es and trends. Fn partic1lar, he oc1ses on the Chineseand Fndian economies and 'S economic relations with China and Fndia. Oe is a1thoro the China Ploal Fn=estment Tracker, an ad21nct proessor at Peor3e ashin3ton'ni=ersit), where he teaches a co1rse on the Chinese econom). :eore 2oinin3 AF,Scissors was a senior research ellow in the Asian St1dies Center at the Oerita3eHo1ndation. Oe has also worked in ;ondon or Fntelli3ence Research ;td., ta13hteconomics at ;in3nan 'ni=ersit) in Oon3 on3, and ser=ed as an action oIcer ininternational economics and ener3) or the 'S Department o Deense. Stop the 'S!China :ilateral Fn=estment Treat) (:FT8 Talks, American nterprise Fnstit1te,https/00www.aei.or30p1lication0stop!the!1s!china!ilateral!in=estment!treat)!it!

talks0 00NAWashington and Lei$ing are ostensi%y ha+ing serio's disc'ssions of a%iatera in+estment treaty to im(ro+e trans(arency and other as(ects ofthe trans9Paci-c in+estment en+ironment* Ine ho(es it.s not reay tr'e"that the &merican side is $'st h'moring the Chinese" %eca'se it.sim(ossi%e at (resent to see s'ch an agreement %ene-ting the US* Mcl1din3 onds, Chinese in=estment in the 'S set a record last )ear. FtEs on pace toset another record this )ear. +1st last week, Chinese technolo3) 3iant ;eno=o wasappro=ed ) the 'S to 1) F:9Es low!end ser=er 1nit. A Chinese 3ro1p that incl1desstate!owned enterprises id or American chip!maker @mni=ision. ThereEs alsoChinese in=estment in propert), ener3), and >nance. The main com(aint :ei2in3can ofer in this conteMt is that a co1rt decision in a=or o a Chinese enterprise o=er

the 'S 3o=ernment took too lon3. Fn stark contrast, American ac1isitions in theRC are on co1rse or their worst perormance in o=er a decade, e=en while there isstron3 American spendin3 elsewhere in the world. There is 3ood reason or theChina!speci>c a=ersion/ the Comm'nist Party is harassing foreign com(anies"with &merican technoogy -rms near the to( of the ist* X1alcomm has eeno1nd 31ilt) o =iolatin3 ChinaEs anti!monopol) law, p1nishment )et to eanno1nced. 9icrosot is neMt in line. &t %est" the aw is %izarrey and harmf'ya((ied" witness tin) FnterDi3ital acc1sed o 1ll)in3 3iant O1awei. &t worst" it isLei$ing coercing ower (rices and technoogy transfer* The RC did not treatm1ltinationals well prior to Peneral Secretar) ]i +inpin3Es 3o=ernment takin3 oIceand has treated them consideral) worse since. American 1siness can e short!si3hted in its approach to China (tho13h others can apparentl) e worse8.

Leie+ing a %iatera in+estment treaty ALDTB is a so'tion to the c'rrent%o't of mercantiism wo'd %e e,ce(tionay short9sighted* 5ooking%ackward" the esson from China.s WTI accession is cear do not sign anagreement ho(ing to %ind the PGC when the Party has anotherde+eo(ment (ath in mind* ;ookin3 orward, the recent polic) shit Z what Chinawants Z indicates that an) :FT concessions Z what the 'S wants Z wo1ld eima3inar). The) wo1ld shortl) e >nessed, sidestepped, or simpl) i3nored. A :FTsi3ned in "#$%, or eMample, wo1ld see American 1siness in "#$L complainin3 thatthe Chinese are cheatin3 and callin3 or a ree trade a3reement to create a tr1l)

https://www.aei.org/publication/stop-the-us-china-bilateral-investment-treaty-bit-talks/






open market. A3ain. Hor :ei2in3 to merel) ret1rn to the pre!]i 3o=ernment da)swo1ld e an impro=ement. :1t the new go+ernment.s hy(ocrisy in its words+ers's its actions ro%s it of the credi%iity needed for a (ro(er LDTnegotiation* Hor that, there m1st also e clear and s1stained pro3ress in showin3that market competition is welcome rom all comers, incl1din3 m1ltinationals. @nthis side o the aci>c, the 'S sho1ld treat Chinese in=estment on the asis o how

it afects o1r econom). That the RC is a poor partner is not a 3ood reason to shooto1rsel=es in the oot ) lockin3 ene>cial transactions. Ft is, howe=er, a 3oodreason to p1t a :FT on hold or a 3ood while.

China wo'd not %e a reia%e (artner* China %atantydisregards US aws and reg'ations*S'zas" 0/1Roin, Assistant to Mec. Dir., Triton Colle3e Ho1ndation, Can the 'S tr1st China intrade deals4, Chica3o Tri1ne,http/00www.chica3otri1ne.com0news0opinion0letters0ct!can!the!1s!tr1st!china!in!trade!deals!"#$%#7$K!stor).html 00NAWhie D recognize that the Trans9Paci-c Partnershi( is a ogica ste( to(romote f't're %'siness growth for the U*S*" D sti ha+e reser+ations*S(eci-cay" there sho'd %e concern a%o't China.s (enchant for 4agrantdisregard of U*S* trade reg'ations and cy%ersec'rity (rotections. 9ostrecentl), it is tho13ht (1t not )et pro=ed8 that China hacked into the '.S. @Ice oersonnel 9ana3ement comp1ters, compromisin3 millions o AmericansE personalinormation. Dt occ'rs to me that Chinese +a'es regarding %'siness are+asty di=erent from o'r own* D ha+e no reason to %eie+e that %'it9inen+ironmenta" a%or and inteect'a (ro(erty (rotections wo'd %ehonored* Dt $'st doesn.t seem to %e the Chinese way of doing %'siness*>'rther" it is ass'med that U*S* com(any im(orts wo'd %e we9recei+ed%y the Chinese (o('ace at arge" gi+ing the U*S* access to an e+er9growing Chinese midde cass* y 'estion is" why wo'd the Chinesego+ernment want to %'y o'r im(orts when they may ha+e the a%iity tostea o'r (rod'ction and cy%ersecrets and then 'se them to ('t a %iionChinese nationas to workK Df D were Chinese" D.d %e thinking" MWhy (ayim(ort tari=s and shi((ing costs when D can make e+erything in9ho'seKN&nd how do we sto( them from committing cy%er9 and ind'striaes(ionageK How do we sto( them from %'ying smaer &sian/Pan9Paci-cco'ntries into doing things their wayK How do we make s're China staystr'e to the %'it9in (rotections of the agreementK Sim(y ('t" they.re%igger than 's with a ot more (eo(e. Theoreticall) F think the Trans!aci>cartnership sho1ld happen. :1t F worr) that China is not a tr'stworthy %'siness

(artner" and the U*S* has no way of ens'ring it wi %e*LDT is %ad for %oth US and China a'ndry ist of reasons6rake 1!Celeste, Trade V Ploalization olic) Specialist at the AH;!CF@ (American Hederationo ;aor and Con3ress o Fnd1strial @r3anizations8, :FT with China Fs the ron3Sol1tion to the ron3 rolem, AH;!CF@, http/00www.a<cio.or30:lo30olitical!Action!;e3islation0A!:FT!with!China!Fs!the!ron3!Sol1tion!to!the!ron3!rolem 00NA

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/letters/ct-can-the-us-trust-china-in-trade-deals-20150619-story.html


http://www.aflcio.org/Blog/Political-Action-Legislation/A-BIT-with-China-Is-the-Wrong-Solution-to-the-Wrong-Problem








The United States is c'rrenty negotiating a %iatera in+estment treatyALDTB with China. hen most people think o a ?it,B the) think o somethin3 that3oes in a horseEs mo1th, or ma)e a small piece o somethin3. 'nort1natel), thiskind o :FT can e m1ch more harm1l than either o those thin3s. A :FT is a treat)etween two co1ntries in which each co1ntr) promises to 3i=e ri3hts and pri=ile3es—1t impose no oli3ations—to in=estors rom the other co1ntr). 's1all) these

in=estors are lar3e corporations. Df yo' wonder why the United States wo'dnegotiate a treaty that grants rights and (ri+ieges to foreign cor(orations(ri3hts and pri=ile3es home!3rown corporations donEt ha=e, ) the wa)8, yo'.re notaone* &nd if yo' are wondering why the United States wo'd negotiates'ch a treaty with China right now—when the United States aready has a:!1) %iion merchandise trade de-cit with China—yo'.re aso not aone*

The AH;!CF@ opposes the mo=e to ne3otiate a :FT with China. Here are somereasons yo' sho'd %e concerned, too/ 1* The United States is negotiatingfrom a Mmode LDTB (and 1nlike other trade ne3otiations, this sample teMt isp1lic, so we know or the most part what a :FT with China wo1ld look like8. Themode LDT does not e=ecti+ey (rotect f'ndamenta a%or rights" inc'dingfreedom of association" coecti+e %argaining and freedom from forced

a%or* ;i+en that the Chinese go+ernment does not ade'atey (rotect itsworkers in these critica areas" making it easier for U*S*9%ased com(aniesto in+est in China co'd e,acer%ate" rather than im(ro+e a%or a%'ses inChina* "* U*S* com(anies attracted to China %y the (ros(ect of a ow9a%orrights regime co'd act'ay make o'r trade de-cit with China worse ifthey e,(ort their arti-ciay chea(er (rod'cts to the United States"dis(acing (rod'cts from the United States or other co'ntries* This(ractice is sometimes caed Msocia d'm(ing*N *. Witho't ade'ate ande=ecti+e a%or (rotections" go%a cor(orations essentiay (it %othco'ntries against each another in a com(etition to ower their costs" whichs'((resses wages and working conditions for a* This is sometimes caedthe Mrace to the %ottom*N G. The mode LDT contains in+estor9to9statedis('te settement ADS6SB" a (rocess that aows foreign in+estors whothink a aw or reg'ation may im(act the +a'e of its in+estment to ski( aco'ntry.s domestic co'rts and %ring their caims to a (ri+ate (ane (thisprocess is called aritration8. Dn other words" foreign in+estors can %y(assstate and federa co'rts (the co1rts where all '.S.!owned 1sinesses ha=e torin3 their claims8 and instead ('rs'e their ega caims in front of'ndemocratic" 'nacco'nta%e (anes of attorneys—not $'dges* %. 9ost othe attorne)s who orm the aritration panels come rom elite law >rms, andalternate etween actin3 as panelists and actin3 as mo1thpieces or 3loalin=estors. 7. DS6S has %een 'sed to chaenge democraticay9enacted awsdesigned to (romote ('%ic good* When cor(orations win" citizens ose"either %eca'se their go+ernment has to fork o+er (recio's ta,(ayerdoars to (ay o= the in+estor" or %eca'se the go+ernment agrees towithdraw the aw or reg'ation at iss'e. . 6es(ite the fact that the U*S*go+ernment and +ario's state go+ernments aready ha+e s(ent miionsdefending DS6S caims" the U*S* go+ernment sti inc'ded it in the modeLDT* L. Fn the China conteMt, state!owned enterprises, which are essentiall) an armo the Chinese 3o=ernment, co1ld 1se FSDS. This wo1ld allow a orei3n co1ntr) to1se what is s1pposed to e a commercial process to en3a3e in what sho1ld eresol=ed thro13h diplomac). K. The mode LDT wo'd do nothing to address



the Chinese go+ernment.s record of +ioating trade commitments* Since it $oined the Word Trade Irganization AWTIB" the Chinese go+ernment hasignored commitments regarding market access for U*S* -rmsV enforcementof inteect'a (ro(erty rightsV s'%sidiesV d'm(ingV e,(ort restrictionsVc'rrency e,change mani('ationV and according e'a stat's to nationaand foreign (rod'cts* The U*S* go+ernment has had to resort to ega

chaenges o+er a wide +ariety of infractions" from chicken feet toeectronic (ayment (rocessing to rare earth mineras* $#. U*S* workersaready ha+e %een h'rt %y trade with China—osing more than 2*7 miion $o%s since 2##1 and ha+ing their wages s'((ressed—%y :!7*# %iion inost wages in 2#11 aone* Workers cannot a=ord more %ad trade (oicydecisions* The c1rrent U*S* a((roach to LDTs is 'nacce(ta%y 4awed" and ifthe United States ('rs'es a LDT with China now" it is ikey to ca'sef'rther harm to U*S*9%ased (rod'cers and &merica.s working famiies*Workers in %oth the United States and China deser+e %etter*

LDT shows itte res'ts in com%ating Chinese cy%er9attacks5ea+enworth 0/2)St1art, :ei2in3 :1rea1 Chie, 9cClatch) Newspapers, Heds Slow to Conront Chinaao1t C)erattacks, Po=ernment Technolo3), http/00www.3o=tech.com0opinion0Heds!Slow!to!Conront!China!ao1t!C)erattacks.html 00NADn a teeconference %rie-ng on onday" a senior State 6e(artment o3ciatod re(orters that cy%er iss'es wi certainy %e disc'ssed at this week.sStrategic Sec'rity 6iaog'e, an ann1al '.S.!Sino meetin3 that has een held or the last siM )ears. This )earEs talks, which e3an T1esda) and end ednesda), incl1de Secretar) o State +ohn err) and Treas1r)Secretar) +aco ;ew and their Chinese co1nterparts, Wice remier an3 Yan3 and State Co1ncilor Yan3 +iechi.?Some o the (hackin38 re=elations are airl) recent, and those will certainl) e talked ao1t in =er) direct terms,oth at the Strate3ic Sec1rit) Dialo31e, 1t also in all o the other sort o tracks where we ha=e a chance to raisethese iss1es,B said the oIcial, who a3reed to talk to reporters on the condition o anon)mit). '.S. oIcials sa) the)are partic1larl) concerned ao1t Chinese militar) 1nits reportedl) assi3ned to hack into '.S. companies to stealintellect1al propert) or the ene>t o Chinese ind1stries. The @ama administration sees this acti=it) as separaterom traditional sp)in3, and last )ear it indicted >=e memers o the eopleEs ;ieration Arm) or ind1strial

espiona3e. Sega said the U*S*9Sino taks may we (rod'ce some kind of'(%eat anno'ncement" (erha(s on a %iatera in+estment treaty* L't thetwo sides don.t a((ear ready to serio'sy engage on cy%er concerns" hesaid* Oe also eMpressed do1ts the administration is takin3 steps to pre=ent 1rther reaches o 3o=ernmentcomp1ters. ;ast week, the hite Oo1se anno1nced a ?*#!da) c)er sec1rit) sprintB to shore 1p ederal networks

and pre=ent s1ccess1l hackin3. ?The o(timist in me wants to %eie+e it wi res't insome change"N said Sega" director of the Co'nci on >oreign Geations.6igita and Cy%ers(ace Poicy Program* MThe (essimist isn.t s're*N

http://www.govtech.com/opinion/Feds-Slow-to-Confront-China-about-Cyberattacks.html






&d+antage CP &nswers



&2 ISW Co'nter(an AEcon/Heg/Tech5eadershi(B



So+ency 6e-cits

6oesn.t so+e foreign tr'st F that.s the most im(ortant internaink

Washington Log 1)ashin3ton :lo3, ?% a)s 9ass S1r=eillance Fs Destro)in3 @1r conom),B "0$0$%,http/00www.washin3tonslo3.com0"#$%0#"0nsa!destro)in3!american!econom).html S+

Pri+acy is a (rere'isite for a (ros(ero's economy . =en the hite Oo1se admits/

Peo(e m'st ha+e con-dence that data wi tra+e to its destinationwitho't disr'(tion* &ss'ring the ree <ow o inormation, the sec1rit) and (ri+acy of data,

and the inte3rit) o the interconnected networks themsel=es are all essentia to &merican andgo%a economic (ros(erity, sec1rit), and the promotion o 1ni=ersal ri3hts. :elow, we disc1ss >=e

wa)s that mass s1r=eillance h1rts o1r econom). $. Horei3ners Stop :1)in3 American >oreigners arestarting to shy away from U*S* Dnternet com(anies" d'e to the risk that&merican s(ooks wi s(y on them* &merican tech com(anies Z incl1din3 Werizon,

Cisco, F:9 and others Z are getting hammered for coo(erating with the JS& and ailin3

to protect pri=ac). The costs to the U*S* economy ha+e %een estimated to %e inthe h'ndreds of %iions of doars . And see this and this. That doesnEt e=en take into acco1nt

the 21st!re=ealed NSA pro3ram o inectin3 =irt1all) all pop1lar estern hard dri=es with sp)ware. This will ca1seh13e markets like China to insist that locall)!prod1ced hard dri=es e 1sed, to make it harder or the NSA to hack

into them. So the JS&.s shenanigans are h'rting d'a (iars of the U*S* techsector com('ters and Dnternet. (The sale o moile de=ices mi3ht not e ar ehind.8 ". Tr1st and

the R1le o ;aw Z Two 9ain determinants o rosperit) Z Are 'ndermined :) S1r=eillance Tr'st is ?E for a(ros(ero's economy* FtEs hard to tr1st when )o1r 3o=ernment, )o1r internet ser=ice pro=ider and )o1r

a=orite wesites are all sp)in3 on )o1. The destr'ction of (ri+acy %y the JS& directyharms internet com(anies" Siicon Oaey" Caifornia ` and the entire U*S*economy (Haceook lost $$ millions 1sers as o April mainl) d1e to pri=ac) concerns ` and that was eore theSnowden re=elations8. F people donEt tr1st the companies to keep their data pri=ate, the)Ell 1se orei3n companies.

And destr'ction of tr'st in go+ernment and other instit'tions is destroying

o'r economy*

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/02/nsa-destroying-american-economy.html

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/02/nsa-destroying-american-economy.html





The &merican Wind Energy &ssociation has made eMtendin3 the rod1ction TaM Credit (QTCQ8 itsprimar) oc1s this )ear. Doc1ments a=ailale on the trade 3ro1pQs wesite show that ao1t JG million o its "#$" 1d3et (J*#million8 was directed toward sec1rin3 eMtension o the TC. ith 2o 3rowth the n1mer one political iss1e in the 'nited States,

AAQs strate3ic plan cas for re%randing of the wind ind'stry as an economicengine that wi (rod'ce steady $o% growth" (artic'ary in theman'fact'ring sector*b The (ro%em or AA is that the ind'stry8s own recordon $o% growth acks credi%iity* &cc'rate information a+aia%e in the ('%ics'ggests the ind'stry has in4ated its o+era $o% n'm%ers*b Section 10#! and o%sb

Se+enty9-+e (ercent of the Section 10#! argesse was a+ished on %igwind" yet" despite illions in p1lic 1ndin3, the wind sector e,(erienced a oss of 1#"###direct and indirect $o%s in "#$# rin3in3 AAQs reported total to %,### 2os$U.b Fn April, NR; released itsestimates o direct and indirect 2os created ) pro2ects recei=in3 $7#* 1ndin3. The agency reied on the E6D mode (&+os and conomic De=elopment Fmpacts&8 to estimate gross $o%s" earnings" andeconomic o't('t s'((orted thro'gh the constr'ction and o(eration ofsoar (hoto+otaic APOB and arge wind (ro$ects*b :1t an in=esti3ation ) the Oo1se

S1committee on @=ersi3ht and Fn=esti3ations ri3htl) o2ected to NR;Qs concl1sions. The S'%committee fo'ndthat JGE5 o+erstated the n'm%er of $o%s created 'nder 10#!" that it faiedto re(ort on the more im(ortant net $o% creation" and ignored (otentia

$o%s that wo'd %e created gi+en aternati+e s(ending of >edera f'nds.

The key sticking (oint was that JGE5 did not +aidate its modes 'singact'a data from com(eted (ro$ects*b The S1committee concl1ded that models 1sed to estimate 2ocreation were no s1stit1te or act1al data and added/ &The Section $7#* 3rant pro3ram was sold to the American people as a

necessar) stim1l1s 2os pro3ram, and )et, the Treas'ry and Energy 6e(artments do not ha+ethe n'm%ers to %ack '( the I%ama &dministration8s caims of its s'ccessin creating $o%s*@b The (ro%em with E6Db Since NR;Qs +DF model pro=ides a 3ross anal)sis onl), it does notconsider how 1ildin3 a renewale ener3) acilit) mi3ht displace ener3) or associated 2os, earnin3s, and o1tp1t related to othereMistin3 or planned ener3) 3eneration reso1rces (e.3., 2os lost or 3ained related to chan3es in electric 1tilit) re=en1es andincreased cons1mer ener3) ills, amon3 other impacts8.b Fn other words, the model is one!sided, onl) considerin3 the ene>t side o

a cost!ene>t comparison and i3nores e=er)thin3 else.b So what data do we ha+e on wind ind'stry $o%sK Jot m'ch.b Apparentl), &WE& is the ony so'rce of nationwide em(oymentstatistics in the United States for wind9reated $o%s*b @ the p1rported %,### direct andindirect 2os, the ma2orit) (aro1nd 7#8 work in >nance and cons1ltin3 ser=ices, contractin3 and en3ineerin3 ser=ices, andtransportation and lo3istics. Twent) tho1sand are emplo)ed in wind!related man1act1rin3 with the remainin3 2os tied toconstr1ction and @V9.b :1t =alidatin3 this inormation is not possile since no ind1str) codes eMist that isolate wind powerestalishments or wind t1rine and wind components estalishments. The North American Fnd1str) Classi>cation S)stem (NAFCS81ndles wind!related man1act1rers 1nder the same code as the &T1rine and T1rine Penerator Set 'nits& man1act1rin3 ind1str)(NAFCS ***7$$8, which incl1des &estalishments primaril) en3a3ed in man1act1rin3 t1rines (eMcept aircrat8 and complete t1rine3enerator set 1nits, s1ch as steam, h)dra1lic, 3as, and wind.&b At the end o "#$#, the :1rea1 o ;aor Statistics reported "7,"$Ltotal 2os in this ind1str). FtQs not credile that AAQs estimated man1act1rin3 2os co1ld represent the =ast ma2orit) oemplo)ment 1nder the NAFCS ***7$$ classi>cation."Ub Na=i3antQs 9a3icb Fn Decemer, AA commissioned Na=i3ant Cons1ltin3, Fnc. to st1d) the impact o the TC on 2o 3rowth in the wind ind1str). The st1d), also ased on the +DF model, considered twoscenarios, one where the TC is eMtended or G )ears ("#$*!"#$78- the other where the TC eMpires at the end o this )ear.b Na=i3antQs model showed that eMtension o the TC wo1ld pro=ide a stale economic en=ironment and allow the wind ind1str) to3row to nearl) $##,### American 2os o=er o1r )ears, incl1din3 a 21mp to G7,### man1act1rin3 positions. Mpiration o the TCshowed a loss o *,### 2os.b The messa3e to Con3ress was clear/ eMtend the TC or )o1 will e lamed or American 2os ein3lost. =en Fnterior Secretar) Salazarpeddled AAQs n1mers despite the Con3ressional report that raised do1ts ao1t the model.b Recent statements ) AA prompted 1s to look at the n1mers e=en 1rther. Fn 9a), AAQs Denise :ode told indpower 9onthl) that o the estimated %,### wind 2os, at least *#,### were man1act1rin3 2os !! a 21mp o $#,### 2osb here did the additionalman1act1rin3 2os come rom4b As it t1rns o1t, Na=i3ant ta1lated direct and indirect 2os 1t also 1ietl) added FND'CD 2os !!those 2os created when the o=erall le=el o spendin3 in an econom) rises d1e to workers newl) recei=in3 incomes.b Hactorin3 inQind1ced emplo)mentQ was a radical depart1re rom 2o >31res pre=io1sl) pro=ided ) AA. Fnd1ced 2o >31res are more astract

and inherentl) 1nreliale 1t a con=enient wa) to in<ate 2o n1mers. e co1ld >nd no doc1mentation that eMplained this chan3e in 2o reportin3 nor was the chan3e ootnoted in the Na=i3ant st1d).b e spoke with a Na=i3ant represent who s133ested AA mi3htha=e een incorrectl) treatin3 Qind1ced 2osQ as Qindirect 2osQ in its prior reports 1t that wo1ld not eMplain the in<ation inman1act1rin3 2os. Total 2o co1nts wo1ld ha=e sta)ed ao1t the same.b Fn lookin3 at the Na=i3ant modeled n1mers, it appearsthe wind ind1str) c1rrentl) onl) pro=ides %L,### direct and indirect 2os, not %,###. A o1r!)ear eMtension o the TC co1ld res1lt ina possile #,### direct and indirect 2os ) "#$7 (scenario "8 !! 5,000 less than the number !" touts today# b Conc'sionb

The change in $o% co'nts raises serio's credi%iity iss'es a%o't theind'stry8s em(oyment strength. :1t the asol1te n1mers tell onl) a piece o the stor). Since Na=i3antQsst1d) is ased on +DF, the 2o >31res represent 3ross n1mers and do not consider them in the conteMt o the lar3er econom). Fnthat sense, Na=i3antQs >ndin3s, like NR;Qs st1d), tell 1s nothin3 ao1t the tr1e impact o the TC.b :1t one thin3 does appear to etr1e/ AAQs 2o >31res, datin3 ack to least "##K, ma) e nothin3 more than >31res p1lled rom thin air. b $U ;awrence :erkele)

National ;aorator) reports (p. 8/ &The American ind ner3) Association, meanwhile, estimates that the entire

http://www.treasury.gov/initiatives/recovery/Documents/Status%20overview.pdf


http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/52739.pdf


http://energycommerce.house.gov/sites/republicans.energycommerce.house.gov/files/analysis/20120618greenjobs.pdf



http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42023.pdf



http://www.census.gov/epcd/ec97sic/def/D3511.TXT

http://www.bls.gov/cew



http://www.navigant.com/


http://www.awea.org/Advocacy/Content.aspx?ItemNumber=879



http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/235921-salazar-blames-congress-for-layoffs

http://www.windpowermonthly.com/news/1128501/Interview%E2%80%94AWEA-chief-executive-Denise-Bode



http://www1.eere.energy.gov/wind/pdfs/51783.pdf








http://www.census.gov/epcd/ec97sic/def/D3511.TXT





http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/235921-salazar-blames-congress-for-layoffs


http://www1.eere.energy.gov/wind/pdfs/51783.pdf



wind energy sector directy and indirecty em(oyed 7)"### f'9timeworkers in the United States at the end of 2#1# 9 a%o't 1#"### fewer f'9time9e'i+aent $o%s than in 2##" mosty d'e to the decrease in new wind(ower (ant constr'ction*@ A recent AA lo3 (Her1ar) *, "#$"8 con>rms the %,### is still c1rrent. b "U

Wind man'fact'ring re(resents 'nder 1X of the 11*) miion domesticman'fact'ring $o%s in 2#1#



2&C F ISW Jot ?ey to an'fact'ringWind not key to o+era U*S* man'fact'ring 999 (arts wi $'st %eim(ortedDEG" 11 ($$0$G0"#$$, Fnstit1te or ner3) Research, ?Re1ttin3 9s. :odeEs ind

Comments,B http/00www.instit1teorener3)research.or30"#$$0$$0$G0re1ttin3!odes!"#!percent!)!"#*#08C1rrent ind Fnd1str) +os &ccording to the Congressiona Gesearch Ser+ice ACGSB"the n'm%er of wind man'fact'ring $o%s has remained reati+ey 4at o+erthe (ast ! years at an estimated 2#"### $o%s* (See chart elow.8 The ma2orit) o the %,### 2os (7# percent8 that 9s. :ode 1otes are in >nance and cons1ltin3 ser=ices, contractin3 and en3ineerin3 ser=ices,and transportation and lo3istics. @nl) *,%## 2os were in constr1ction and G,### in operations and maintenance in

"#$#. Wind t'r%ine man'fact'ring is res(onsi%e for a +ery sma share Aessthan 1 (ercentB of the tota man'fact'ring $o%s A11*) miionB in the UnitedStates in 2#1#* &ccording to the 6IE re(ort that e+a'ated the 2# (ercentwind energy in 2#!#" t'r%ine assem%y and com(onent (ants wo'ds'((y a%o't !2"### man'fact'ring $o%s in 2#20* L't the &merican Wind

Energy &ssociation.s assessment is that the n'm%er wo'd %e ! to < timesthat amo'nt 'nder a ong9term sta%e (oicy en+ironment* &s CGS notes"the rea n'm%er wi %e de(endent not ony on the demand for wind" %'taso on cor(orate decisions of where to (rod'ce the needed com(onents*Those decisions co'd +ery we res't in man'fact'ring $o%s o'tside of theUnited States* As CRS notes, imports o wind 3eneratin3 e1ipment increased rom JGL".% million in "##%to J".% illion in "##L, held at J".* illion in "##K and decreased to J$." illion in "#$# d1e to lower relati=e

demand or new wind ener3), declinin3 prices, and new man1act1rin3 plants in the 'nited States. WhieE'ro(ean s'((iers were the eaders in wind e'i(ment im(orts to theUnited States" So'th ?orea and China are now %ecoming (ayers in theU*S* market*

I=shore Wind T'r%ines wi $'st %e man'fact'red in China and%oost their hegemonic rise F 6IE grants (ro+e F Chea(er (ricesand e,(erience

'an 'an 1< (;i1 Y1an)1an, international correspondant or Renewale ner3)orldU, ?China :oosts @fshore ind De=elopmentB, %0""0$G,http/00www.renewaleener3)world.com0news0"#$G0#%0china!oosts!de=elopment!o!ofshore!wind!power.html800ORCAn ind1str) eMpert at NDRC indicated that the comined capacit) o a((ro+ed o=shore wind farmsin China, incl1din3 intertidal pro2ects, has e,ceeded <"### W. The comined capacit) o ofshore

wind pro2ects sched1led to start constr1ction ) "#$% will eMceed *## 9, accordin3 to data rom CNRC. TheU*S* 6e(artment of Energy A6IEB said in eary ay that it wi aocate '(to :1<1 miion to three (ioneering o=shore wind demonstration (ro$ects

o+er the ne,t fo'r years to help speed 1p the deplo)ment o more eIcient ofshore wind powertechnolo3ies. Lene-ting from the s'((ort for o=shore wind (ro$ects in the U*S*">ishermen8s Energy8s 2)W o=shore windmi %acked %y Yiangtan Eectrican'fact'ring" a China9%ased eectrica e'i(ment man'fact'rer" won aUS:< miion grant from the 6IE, s12ect to re31lator) appro=als.

http://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/2011/11/14/rebutting-bodes-20-percent-by-2030/


http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/content/rew/en/articles/2014/05/doe-picks-winners-for-u-s-offshore-wind-development.html










1&G F ISW Jot ?ey to an'fact'ringWind not key to man'fact'ring $o%sPatzer 11 9ichaela D. Con3ressional Research Ser=ice, &'.S. ind T1rine9an1act1rin3/ Hederal S1pport or an mer3in3 Fnd1str)& K0"*0$$ Cornell 'ni=ersit)

F;R School, http/00di3italcommons.ilr.cornell.ed10c3i0=iewcontent.c3i4article6$L$VconteMt6ke)5workplace, L0"$0$"Wind t'r%ine man'fact'ring is res(onsi%e for a +ery sma share of the11*) miion domestic man'fact'ring $o%s in 2#1#" we 'nder 1X* Dt seems'nikey" e+en gi+en a s'%stantia increase in U*S* man'fact'ring ca(acity"that wind t'r%ine man'fact'ring wi %ecome a ma$or so'rce ofman'fact'ring em(oyment* Fn "##L, the '.S. Department o ner3) orecast that i wind powerwere to pro=ide "# o the nationEs electrical s1ppl) in "#*#, '.S. t1rine asseml) and component plants co1lds1pport ro13hl) *",### 1ll!time man1act1rin3 workers in "#"7.L" AAEs more optimistic pro2ection is that thewind ind1str) co1ld s1pport three to o1r times as man) man1act1rin3 workers as at present i a lon3!term stale

polic) en=ironment were in place, which implies a total o L#,### 2os.L* >'rther em(oymentgrowth in the sector is ikey to de(end not ony '(on f't're demand forwind energy" %'t aso on cor(orate decisions a%o't where to (rod'ce

towers" %ades" nacees" and their most so(histicated com(onents" s'chas gear%o,es" %earings" and generators*

Cean energy doesn.t %oost man'fact'ring—de+eo(edo+erseas&SLC 811American S1stainale :1siness Co1ncil, &American S1stainale :1siness Co1ncilhite Oo1se :rie>n3/ Creatin3 +os and :1ildin3 a S1stainale conom),& 70"0$$http/00www.comm1nit)!wealth.or305pds0news0recent!articles0$#!$$0paper!asc.pdAD L0$K0$$

Despite its hardships, American man1act1rin3 still represents a considerale

share o the '.S. econom). The sectorEs 3ross o1tp1t in "##% was JG.% trillion,and it still s1pports nearl) $* million 2os, or nearl) $# percent o total non!arm emplo)ment. The clean ener3) sector is pro2ected to reach J""7 illionann1all) ) "#$7. Demand or solar and wind power will contin1e to eMpando=er the neMt twent) )ears, and 1pwards to L# o these new 2os will e inthe man1act1rin3 sector. Cean energy man'fact'ring o=ers ano((ort'nity to strengthen and eMpand &merica.s midde cass. L'tthere.s one %ig (ro%em we don.t make most of these systems herein the U*S* >'y haf of AmericaEs eMistin3 wind t'r%ines wereman'fact'red o+erseas* We rank -fth among co'ntries that

man'fact're soar com(onents, e=en tho13h the solar cell was orn inAmerica. The fact that other co'ntries are (re(ared to dei+er these(rod'cts — and we are not — means that e+ery new &merican %icreating demand for renewa%e energy systems and ener3) eIcienc)ser=ices act1all) creates new $o%s o+erseas, e=en tho13h we the 'S has aro1st man1act1rin3 inrastr1ct1re and skilled workorce.

J.6oo conc'des negJ.6oo 2/10 (9ichael NEDolo Z Wice resident o Camoin Associates, email to

+aco Oe3na, ?@fshore indQs otential conomic :ene>tsB " Her1ar) "#$%800+OO



+aco/ Fn "#$#, yo' ('%ished an artice that descri%ed the (ossi%e economic%ene-ts of o=shore wind (ower. 9)sel and man) other nationall) competiti=e deaters read that

article to make the arg'ment that witho't o=shore wind" the United Statesman'fact'ring sector wi face a signi-cant decine, howe+er o=shore wind(rod'ction can com(etey re+erse this. o1ld )o1 a3ree or disa3ree with this claim4b

9ichael/ 6isagree* Jo way is o=shore going to com(etey re+erse the

man'fact'ring decine .b +aco/ o1ld )o1 mind i F 1oted this email in a deate ro1nd, ass1min3 F

1se a proper citation4b 9ichael/ S1re. No prolem.



an'fact'ring Jot ?2 Econ

an'fact'ring is not key to the U*S* economyHassett" 1# (e=in, director o economic polic) st1dies at the American nterpriseFnstit1te, ?@amaQs @session Dri=es ro3ress in Re=erse/ e=in Oassett,B L0$%0$#,http/00www.loomer3.com0news0"#$##L$70oamasosessiondri=espro3ressinre=ersecommentar))ke=inhassett.html8an'fact'ring has %een on a moreZorZessZsteady decine as a share ofnationa o't('t for decades" (art of the nat'ra e+o'tion of the U*S*economy. Dt.s time (oiticians sto( caing this a nationa crisis* 5ots of-rms went %ankr'(t d'ring the recession witho't the federa go+ernmentswee(ing in to sa+e them* :i3 man1act1rin3 >rms had to e resc1ed eca1se o their s)molicpower. 9assi=e 3o=ernment inter=ention, it seems, is ad=isale to sa=e the a1to ind1str) eca1se man1act1rin3o1tp1t is somehow more =al1ale than other t)pes o o1tp1t. ;ike the rest o @amaEs economic polic), theo1ndation or this idea is noneMistent. Small wonder his economists are 1ittin3. lan ower ;ater in his talk at P9,@ama pled3ed ?to insist that mana3ement, workers, creditors, s1ppliers, dealers, shareholders, e=er)od) 3etto3ether and come 1p with a plan so that we can start 1ildin3 or the 1t1re.B F 31ess that means the prolem with

the American a1to ind1str) was not that the a'tomakers were swam(ed %y insaney high

a%or costs after years of 'nwise concessions to 'nions- the prolem was that wene=er had a presidential orator rilliant eno13h to 1r3e e=er)one to 3et to3ether and crat a plan to sa=eman1act1rin3. Tr1th is, we alread) know @amaEs plan/ to taM )o1 to keep the r1stladen, 1nionhea=) ind1strialsector a<oat. Sadl), similar thinkin3 seems to e catchin3 like a pla31e. Two da)s eore the presidentEs speech, theOo1se =oted *K to *L to pass O.R. G7K", which recommends estalishin3 a presidential task orce to create aNational 9an1act1rin3 Strate3) to re=i=e '.S. ind1stries. Special Treatment Yo1 mi3ht ask, whatEs the harm in )etanother 3o=ernment st1d)4 OereEs what. @ne pro=ision in the ill wo1ld re1ire the president to incl1de, in each)earEs ederal 1d3et, inormation on how the spendin3 plan ad=ances the man1act1rin3 strate3). That wo1ld 3i=e

man1act1rin3 special treatment in e=er) 1d3et. an'fact'ring has %een decining as ashare of U*S* gross domestic (rod'ct for some time, rom ao1t "L percent in $K%# to

ao1t $$ percent in "##K. &ny economist can te yo' that this decine is notnecessariy a ca'se for concern. I+er the (ast few decades" o'r economyhas transformed dramaticay" and the im(ortance of inno+ation hasincreased shar(y. A "##7 st1d) ) the Hederal Reser=e o1nd that in=estment in intan3ile capital is

more important toda), in the a33re3ate, than in=estment in tan3ile capital. We ha+e %ecome anideas economy* That.s not a (ro%em* Dt.s economic e+o'tion" a nat'raand (ositi+e force* The a3ric1lt1ral sector has seen a similar decline in the last 7# )ears, allin3 to $percent o PD rom ro13hl) percent.



an'f High Jow

an'fact'ring High JowLartash 1< (+efr) :artash, Reporter or 9arketwatch in ashin3tonU,?9an1act1rers oost prod1ction to hi3hest le=el in $# )earsB, $$0*0$G,http/00www.marketwatch.com0stor)0man1act1rers!oost!prod1ction!to!hi3hest!le=el!in!$#!)ears!"#$G!$$!#*800ORCU*S* man'fact'rers %oosted (rod'ction in @ctoer to the highest e+e in 1#years and wracked '( a %ig increase in new orders" a s'r+ey of e,ec'ti+esfo'nd. The Fnstit1te or S1ppl) 9ana3ement said 9onda) its man'fact'ringinde, $'m(ed to )X from )0*0X in the prior month. Geadings o+er )#Xindicate more com(anies are e,(anding instead of shrinking. conomistss1r=e)ed ) 9arketatch has eMpected the indeM to e little chan3ed at %7.%. TheindeM is compiled rom a s1r=e) o eMec1ti=es who order raw materials and others1pplies or their companies. The 3a13e tends to rise or all in tandem with thehealth o the econom) An indeM that tracks prod1ction ed3ed 1p ) #." points to7G.L, markin3 the hi3hest le=el since 9a) "##G. an'fact'rers ha+e %een oneof the stear (erformers in the economy o+er the (ast year" %ene-ting %ys'rging saes of a'tos" air(anes and other %ig9ticket items* Jor doman'fact'rers show any sign of etting '(. The FS9Es new!orders indeMclimed %.L point to 7%.L, trailin3 onl) a 77. readin3 in A131st as the hi3hestle=el since "##K.



2&C F ISW Economy T'rnI=shore wind Si(hons o= $o%s from other more (rod'cti+e(arts of the economy;reen" !!! Resident Scholar at the AF ("0"*0"##K, ?&Preen& Fll1sions,B

http/00www.aei.or30article0ener3)!and!the!en=ironment03reen!ill1sions08;etQs re=iew the reasons wh) 3o=ernments cannot create 2os, and wh) laellin3 them &3reen& doesnQt chan3e theasic d)namics. ;etQs start with the allac) that 3o=ernments can create 2os. This allac) was eMploded all the wa)

ack in $LG% ) a Hrench politician and political economist named Hrdric :astiat. :astiat pointed o1t that theony way go+ernments can create $o%s is %y -rst o%iterating other $o%s*Sometimes" they o%iterate other $o%s %y di+erting ta,(ayer money awayfrom the economic 'ses the ta,(ayer wo'd ha+e ('rs'ed if they had ke(ttheir ta,es* Ither times" they o%iterate $o%s %y im(osing reg'ations thatki o= one ind'stry in fa+o'r of another* Dn sti other sit'ations" theyim(ose mandates" s'ch as 'sing recyced (a(er to create an arti-ciamarket for recyced (a(er which red'ce $o%s in fresh9(a(er (rod'ction* Dnthe green energy case, the) are doin3 all o the ao=e/ TaMpa)er dollars are ein3 1sed to s1sidize therenewale ener3) sector- dama3in3 re31lations are ein3 implemented on the traditional ossil 1el sector, andmandates or the 1se o renewale ener3) are ein3 iss1ed, creatin3 a alse market in wind power at the eMpenseo ossil 1el and n1clear power. Po=ernments also in=arial) siphon of a 3ood part o the mone) or&administration,& creatin3 ci=il ser=ice 2os that pa) comparati=el) hi3her wa3es than the pri=ate sector or similar

acti=it). Fne=ital), go+ernment e=orts to create $o%s cost the economy $o%s and"adding ins't to in$'ry" di+ert imited reso'rces to ine3cient 'ses" ca'singeconomic 'nder(erformance*

Wi destroy the economy with greater costs and eectricity(rices 999 ;ermany (ro+esI.?eefe" 12 !!! C@, Peor3e C. 9arshall Fnstit1te ($"0""0"#$", illiam, ?Theind TaM Credit/ Preen elare,B http/00ener3).national2o1rnal.com0"#$"0$"0sho1ld!con3ress!s1pport!wind!t.php4comments6eMpandallcomments, +989an) 1ropean co1ntries, especiall) ;ermany, ha=e tra+eed the cean energy road and%y doing so ha+e ('t their economies into a ditch* An anal)sis o Perman)Es r1sh to

renewales ) the E'ro(ean Dnstit'te for Cimate and Energy warned ofMim(ending doom for the ;erman economy ca'sed %y the emming ikecharge to the ;reen mirage of a=orda%e renewa%e energy.B The report went on, MThe (ro%em is that these energy so'rces are weather9de(endent andth's their s(oradic s'((y is starting to wreak ha+oc on ;ermany.s (owergrid and is e=en now threatenin3 to destailize power 3rids all across 1rope ` ater tens o illions o e1rosspent on renewale ener3) s)stems and hi3her prices or cons1mers, not a sin3le coal or 3as!>red power plant haseen taken oine. To the contrar), old ineIcient Perman plants ha=e een ro13ht ack into ser=ice in an efort tostailize the 3rid.B ith an econom) that increasin3l) is reliant on electric power 3eneration, we need to oc1s ona1ndant, reliale, and afordale so1rces o electric power 3eneration. Hor the oreseeale 1t1re, that so1rce is

nat1ral 3as. There is a cear esson from <# years of energy ind'stria (oicyinitiati+es" inc'ding the wind ta, credit* Dt is sim(y not (ossi%e to createtechnoogica short c'ts %y throwing money at aternati+e energy systems*

http://www.aei.org/article/energy-and-the-environment/green-illusions/)

http://energy.nationaljournal.com/2012/12/should-congress-support-wind-t.php?comments=expandall#comments


http://www.aei.org/article/energy-and-the-environment/green-illusions/)





2&C F ISW Lacko'ts T'rn

Em(irica technica (ro%ems ca'se %acko'ts" (re+entconstant (ower generation" add e,tra costs

;aertner 1#d3ar, independent editor and cons1ltant on risk e=al1ation and s1stainailit)iss1es, ormer editor!in!chie or the orld ide H1nd or Nat1re, Perman)Es@fshore ind/ asted Reso1rces, n=ironmental :li3ht, $"0$,http/00www.masterreso1rce.or30"#$#0$"03erman!ofshore!wind!prolems0

Larey two months after the ina'g'ration ceremon) for ;ermany.s -rst(iot o=shore wind farm" ?Alpha Went1sB in the North Sea, a si, of thenewy instaed wind t'r%ines were com(etey ide" d'e to gear%o,damage* Two t'r%ines m'st %e re(aced entireyV the other fo'rre(aired* [ Hriends o the pro2ect, especiall) Perman)Es en=ironment minister,Norert Roett3en, talked o ?teethin3 prolems.B The prolem is ar moreserio1s than that, for wind t'r%ines in the high seas are e,tremey

e,(ensi+e for (ower cons'mers" e+en when they r'n smoothy* Whenthey don.t" the (ro%em intensi-es* ;ermany co'd face %acko'ts F anew dark age* [ The Alpha Went1s ail1res created intense press1re or Are=a91ltirid, a s1sidiar) o the semip1lic Hrench n1clear power compan) Are=a.E+ery Mstandsti day"N with the e,(ensi+e towering t'r%ines standingide and not generating a singe kiowatt ho'r of eectricity" ca'sesost re+en'e* [ n=ironmental economist and meteorolo3ist Thomas Oeinzowo the 'ni=ersit) o Oam1r3 estimated the o(erator.s re+en'e shortfa atamost :0")## (%,###8 (er t'r%ine (er standsti day* Fnstillin3 additionalconsternation within Are=a was the certainl) not 1nreasonale ear thatalread) skittish in=estors co1ld 3et cold eet, and wander of in search o less

risk) =ent1res.b Act1all), Are=a, Are=a 91ltirid and the constr1ction en3ineerscan consider themsel=es l1ck) that the North Sea was relati=el) calm, thanksto the s1mmer heat wa=e. Fnstallin3 t1rines and lades is done =ia 2ack!1pplatorms, a trick) 1siness 1nder the est circ1mstances. ith an)thin3ao=e :ea1ort ind Horce * (an LZ$# mph ?3entle reezeB8, the workecomes downri3ht risk).b The siM Are=a 91ltirid wind t'r%ines stand 2#feet (L% meters8 a%o+e the wa+es at the 3earoM and t1rine h1. Theirhea+y %ades are !#9feet ($$7!meters8 in diameter* Each t'r%ineweighs $,### metric tons A2*2 miion (o'nds8, incl1din3 the tripod ase,which rises 1p rom the sea <oor $## eet (*# meters8 eneath the s1race othese notorio1sl) ro13h and ri3id North Sea waters. b Dmagine trying to

disassem%e and then re%'id these monsters in anything other thancam seas* [ The 3ood news is that ?Alpha Went1sB also incl1des siM e=eni33er wind t1rines, s1pplied ) the ormerl) Perman compan) Rpower,which now elon3s to FndiaEs S1zlon Corporation. These t1rines ha=e th1s areen r1nnin3 a1ltlessl). Oowe=er, there are eno'gh other iss'esassociated with o(erating o=shore t'r%ines to send additiona shi+ers'( the s(ine*



1&G F ISW Lacko'ts T'rn

Wind ca'ses %acko'ts and re'ires %ack'( generators999t'rnseectricity cost interna ink and warming

Snyder and ?aiser :rian, ;S' Center or ner3) St1dies, 9ark +, colo3ical and conomic Cost!:ene>tAnal)sis o @fshore ind ner3), Renewale ner3), *G, "##K, pp $%7!$%L,@nline $"

@ne o the most s1stanti=e criticisms o wind (ower is that it is 'na%e to(ro+ide constant" (redicta%e (ower to the grid* The eectricity grid isdesigned to send a constant &C oad to cons'mers and it reies onarge (ower (ants (rod'cing predictale and steady eectricity* Windenergy is not steady and =aries on the scale o min1tes, ho1rs, da)s andmonths and the chan3es in wind power o1tp1t are diIc1lt to predict ahead otime U. Thereore, integrating wind (ower into the electricit) grid wire'ire %ack'( systems Aes(eciay nat'ra gas -red (ower (antsB that can respond 1ickl) to chan3in3 prod1ction rom wind arms LU. Thisincreases the tota nationa cost of eectricity* The D@ has estimatedthat the s1ppl) 1p to "# o the nationEs electrical 1se rom wind power wo1ldcost 1p to J%09 h in inte3ration costs KU.



2&C F ISW Un(o('ar

I=shore wind costs PC F I%ama ('shes des(ite contro+ersy Todd S(erry, CNN correspondent, L!$7!2#12 ?ind arm 3ets 'S appro=al

despite contro=ers)B http/00www.cnn.com0"#$"0#L0$701s0wind!arm!aa0indeM.html DA/ 70L0$G

A massi=e o=shore wind farm (anned or Cape Cod that has generated -erce (oitica and

ega contro+ersy has cleared all ederal and state re31lator) h1rdles. The Hederal A=iation Administration said ednesda) the Cape ind pro2ect, the >rst o

its kind in the 'nited States, wo1ld not interere with air traIc na=i3ation and co1ld proceed with certain conditions. re=io1s a3enc) appro=als were challen3ed in co1rt, incl1din3 a

r1lin3 last )ear that orced the l atest HAA saet) e=al1ation. A leadin3 opposition 3ro1p said another le3al challen3e was possile. The I%ama administration >rst

a((ro+ed the power 3eneratin3 (ro$ect, which has now een on the ooks or more than a decade, in April "#$# despite opposition rom residents.

@pponents o=er the )ears ha=e incl1ded the late Sen. dward enned), a Democrat o 9assach1setts whose amil) compo1nd is in O)annis ort. $"% )ears o wind power

Critics caim the wind farm with its $*# t1rines wo1ldthreaten widife and aesthetics o Nant1cket So1nd. Some

oca residents also fear it wi dri+e down (ro(erty +a'es. The administration

has ('shed a &3reen ener3)& a3enda nationay as a wa) to create 2os and lessen '.S. dependence on oil imports. That efort, howe=er,

has %een shar(y criticized %y congressiona Ge('%icans who ha=e said certain

high9(ro-e (ro$ects are (oiticay dri+en. They also ha=e skewered certain Energy6e(artment (rograms that e,tended miions in ta,(ayer oans and other aid to

alternati=e ener3) companies or (ro$ects that fatered or did not meet eMpectations.The Ge('%ican9ed Ho'seI+ersight and Po=ernment Reorm Committee is in+estigating the political assertions aro1nd Ca(e Wind as part o

a roader re=iew o &3reen ener3)& pro2ects s1pported ) the administration. The panelQs chairman, CaliorniaQs Darrell Fssa, wrote resident :arack @ama last week sa)in3 that

White Ho'se interest in the 9assach1setts (ro$ect is @we known& and that the HAA had een 1nder political

press1re to appro=e it.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/08/16/us/wind-farm-faa/index.html

http://www.cnn.com/2012/08/16/us/wind-farm-faa/index.html



1&G F ISW Un(o('ar

Co'nter(an (ercei+ed as (icking winners F triggers ;IP%ackash and s(is o+er to new contro+ersy o+er o=shore

driing\ack Coeman, " ire TO OF;;Es n=ironment and ner3) :lo3, $$!K!2#12,http/00thehill.com0lo3s0e"!wire0e"!wire0"7#G$!3op!senators!press!interior!on!ofshore!wind!deal DA/ 70$$0$G

;IP senators acc'se Dnterior of (aying fa+orites in o=shore wind dea Two

P@ senators are acc1sin3 the Fnterior Department o pla)in3 a=orites %y o=ering &tantic waters forwind farms %'t not oi and gas de+eo(ment* &t iss'e is a ease forde+eo(ing commercia wind (ower in federa waters of the Delaware coast. The area in

1estion is o= imits to oi9and9gas driers in resident @amaEs >=e!)ear ofshore drillin3 plan. ;IPSens. Da=id Witter (;a.8 and ;amar AleMander (Tenn.8 sent a etter Hrida) to Fnterior Secretar) en Salazar asking

him to e+a'ate the economics of the (otentia wind farm against acom(ara%y sized oi9and9gas dea. ?The administration has a ha%it of

(icking energy9ind'stry winners and osers " and we want an e,(anation*

Secretar) Salazar sho1ld at least e ale to deend the economics o the lease sale or wind ener3). Hor eMample, thefedera go+ernment recei+es signi-cant re+en'e from royaties foro=shore oi and gas (rod'ction in the orm o rents, ro)alties, on1s ids and taMes. Can the same%e said for this o=shore wind pro2ect4B Oitter said in a Hrida) statement. Theadministration has cited en+ironmenta reasons for the restriction on Atlantic

and aci>c o=shore driing. Ft sa)s its plan stil l permits eMploration or % percent o identi>ed reser=es. @ama re=isedhis ofshore drillin3 plan ollowin3 the "#$# : oil spill in the P1l o 9eMico. hen Fnterior released the administrationQs >nal leasin3

plan in +1ne, it descried the l1eprint as &responsile& and &ca1tio1s.& Ge('%icans in %oth the Ho'seand the Senate ha+e criticized Dnterior for its handing of o=shore driingin response to the "#$# spill. The) sa) Fnterior acted too 1ickl) ) imposin3 a drillin3 reeze in the P1l o 9eMico, and complain

that r1les instit1ted since then are o=erl) 1rdensome. ;IP awmakers say I%ama8s >=e!)ear o=shore(an is too imited* They want to o(en the &tantic and Paci-c to driing,

sa)in3 drillers co1ld 1nlock pre=io1sl) 1ndisco=ered reser=es. Oitter and &e,ander said increasingo=shore oi9and9gas eases wo'd generate new re+en'e that co'd he((ay down the de-cit* The) said oil and 3as >rms wo1ld pa) handsomel) or the ri3ht to eMplore those areas, and

noted the) wo1ld owe ederal ro)alties on an)thin3 the) dred3e 1p. The senators wanted to com(arethat to what Dnterior o=ered NRP :l1ewater ind Delaware ;;C for the wind ease sale.

I=shore wind ca'ses contro+ersy F ;IP and en+ironmentaists%ackash to I%ama ('shDarrell 6eamaide is a writer, editor and 2o1rnalist with more than *# )earsQeMperience. Oe is the a1thor o three ooks and has written or ma3azines,newspapers, and online media. A specialist in 1siness and >nance, he li=ed in1rope or man) )ears, has tra=eled widel), and has a masterQs de3ree rom

Col1mia 'ni=ersit)Qs School o Fnternational and 1lic Afairs. G!*#!2#1# ?'.S.Appro=al o Cape Cod @fshore ind ro2ect ill Not nd Contro=ers)Bhttp/00oilprice.com0Alternati=e!ner3)0ind!ower0'.S.!Appro=al!@!Cape!Cod!@fshore!ind!ro2ect!ill!Not!nd!Contro=ers).html DA/ 70L0$G

http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/267041-gop-senators-press-interior-on-offshore-wind-deal


http://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Wind-Power/U.S.-Approval-Of-Cape-Cod-Offshore-Wind-Project-Will-Not-End-Controversy.html








The I%ama administration a((ro+ed the contro+ersia Cape ind pro2ect, which calls or a wind arm o $*# t1rines

in Nant1cket So1nd and will e the >rst o=shore wind (ro$ect in the co1ntr). :1t it is s're to generate more

contro+ersy as o((osition was +oiced %y e+eryone from en+ironmenta

gro'(s to Jati+e &merican tri%es to Cape Cod residents, who are dist1red at the prospect that the) will

see the wind t1rines as specks on the horizon. The t1rines will e >=e miles rom shore at their closest point, and $G miles and their most distant. Thelate Sen. dward enned) opposed the pro2ect eca1se the t1rines will e =isile rom the enned) compo1nd in O)annis ort. 9assach1setts Po=. De=al

atrick, howe=er, welcomed the pro2ect and was present at the :oston anno1ncement o the ederal 3o=ernment appro=al. The state wants to ha=e "#o its ener3) rom renewale so1rces ) "#"#. Fnterior Secretar) en Salazar made it clear that the decision is >nal and that the administration is

con>dent it can withstand the co1rt challen3es that are s1re to come. The (ro$ect has %een 'nder re+iew forneary 1# years* There are ao1t a dozen other ofshore pro2ects ein3 contemplated, most o them of the astern seaoard north o

Chesapeake :a). A n1mer o northern 1ropean co1ntries are alread) operatin3 ofshore wind arms in the north Atlantic. The Cape ind arm iseMpected to e3in 3eneratin3 electricit) ) the end o "#$", pendin3 the o1tcome o the le3al challen3es. Ft will pro=ide s1Icient electricit) or three!1arters o the ""%,### residents o Cape Cod. An attempt to lock the pro2ect ) the American Co1ncil on Oistorical reser=ation, which cited the

historical =al1e o the enned) compo1nd and other sites on the Cape, was o((osed %y atrick and go+ernors rom

Delaware, New York, Rhode Fsland, New +erse) and 9ar)land. En+ironmentaists o((ose the (ro$ect%eca'se it interferes with ha%itats o n1mero1s marine animals and irds, and eca1se o its =is1al impact on the

scener).

I=shore wind f'nding ca'ses contro+ersy F ;IP %'dgetcon4icts

+essica ;oad et a is the 9ana3er o Research and @1treach or the Center orAmerican ro3ressEs 1lic ;ands ro2ect. 9ichael Conathan is the Director o @ceanolic) at the Center. Christ) Pold1ss is the 1lic ;ands ro2ect Director at the

Center. $"!7!2#12 ? a)s that ;oomin3 :1d3et C1ts to 1lic ;ands and @ceansill Afect All AmericansBhttp/00americanpro3ress.or30iss1es03reen0report0"#$"0$"0#70G#%*0!wa)s!that!loomin3!1d3et!c1ts!to!p1lic!lands!and!oceans!will!afect!all!americans0 DA/70$#0$G@n +an1ar) ", "#$* a set o lar3e, across9the9%oard s(ending c'ts to nearl) all federa agencies is set

to take place in accordance with the :1d3et Control Act "#$$. These massi=e slashes—known as the ?>scal showdownB or ?se1estrationB—are a direct res't of

conser+ati+es in Congress hoding the &merican economy hostage in order to

sae31ard taM reaks or the wealthiest Americans. hile m1ch has een written and said ao1t what this wo1ld do to the econom), health care, national sec1rit), and other ma2or

domestic pro3rams, one relati=el) 1neMplored iss1e is the efect it wo1ld ha=e on some o AmericaEs most treas1red assets/ o1r oceans and p1lic lands. The >scal showdown is the

atest in a series of %'dget con4icts that ha+e come to a head o=er the l ast )ear. :eca1se the

+oint Select Committee on De>cit Red1ction—the ?s1per committeeB—was 1nale to come to an a3reement on how to address the de>cit, massi=e, a1tomatic c1ts to ederal pro3ramswill take place 1nless Con3ress a3rees ) )earEs end on an alternati=e set o 1d3etar) meas1res to replace se1estration. F the) ail to do so, ederal spendin3 will e a1tomaticall)slashed ) J$." trillion rom "#$* thro13h "#"$, with approMimatel) J$#K illion in c1ts comin3 in >scal )ear "#$*. Despite the act that Speaker o the Oo1se +ohn :oehner (R!@O8ofered a plan with JL## illion in new re=en1e, he has not o1tlined an) speci>c or realistic path to 3et there and wants to lower taM rates—a plan that heads in the wron3 direction. As ares1lt, the co1ntr) is now in a precario1s sit1ation. @nl) an ele=enth!ho1r deal will pre=ent c1ts that ormer Secretar) o Deense Roert Pates—who ser=ed 1nder oth resident Peor3e. :1sh and resident :arack @ama—has said wo1ld ha=e a ?catastrophic efectB on national sec1rit). Se1estrationEs impacts co1ld e e1all) calamito1s or the mana3ement oederal pro3rams that sae31ard American li=es, 1el o1r econom), and pro=ide treas1red sites or rest and recreation. Se1estration will ha=e a i3—and ne3ati=e—impact on land andocean mana3ement a3encies. OereEs how itEll afect all Americans/ ;ess acc1rate weather orecasts Slower ener3) de=elopment Hewer wildland >re>3hters Clos1res o national parksHewer places to h1nt ;ess >sh on )o1r tale Diminished maritime saet) and sec1rit) Con3ressional Rep1licans are e3innin3 to wake 1p to the realit) that o1r >nancial woes cannot esol=ed simpl) ) slashin3 spendin3—additional so1rces o re=en1e m1st e part o the e1ation. Se=eral conser=ati=es ha=e recentl) roken ranks rom P@ taMation task!master,lo)ist Pro=er Nor1ist, who is most known or the pled3e he con=inced man) in Con3ress to si3n promisin3 to re2ect an) taM increases. Sen. :o Corker (R!TN8 recentl) s133ested thathe is not ?oli3atedB to honor the pled3e he made with Nor1ist to oppose taM increases. This is 3ood news or the American people who en2o) 3o=ernment ser=ices—e=er)thin3 rom astron3 militar) to the interstate hi3hwa) s)stem to p1lic ed1cation—eca1se it means that an honest con=ersation ao1t addressin3 the de>cit that incl1des oth new re=en1es and

c1ts can mo=e orward. :1t 'ness more conser+ati+es $oin this trend, se1estration will e ine=itale, in which case we aregoing to ha+e to start making do witho't some o these +ita ser+ices we now consider 1ndamental to

o1r dail) li=es. Fn this iss1e rie, we eMamine se=en ke) areas where ederal land and ocean mana3ement a3encies, s1ch as the Department o the Fnterior and the National @ceanic andAtmospheric Administration, make critical in=estments on which Americans ha=e come to depend and what c1ttin3 these a3encies mi3ht mean, incl1din3/ ;ess acc1rate weatherorecasts Slower ener3) de=elopment Hewer wildland >re>3hters Clos1res o national parks Hewer places to h1nt ;ess >sh on o1r tales Diminished maritime saet) and sec1rit) @=erall,the @Ice o 9ana3ement and :1d3et predicted in a recent report that se1estration will c1t J".7#* illion in >scal )ear "#$* alone rom the a3encies that mana3e the h1ndreds o

millions o acres o lands and oceans that elon3 to '.S. taMpa)ers. There is no do1t Americans will eel the impacts o s1ch massi=e c1ts. Fn partic1lar, we will see red1ctions in man)ser=ices pro=ided ) land and ocean mana3ement a3encies s1ch as weather satellites, >re>3hters, American!made ener3), and h1ntin3 and >shin3 opport1nities. Additionall)—andperhaps most o=io1sl)—the c1ts will likel) ca1se some le=el o clos1re, i not complete clos1re, at man) o o1r parks, seashores, and other cherished places. ;osin3 1ndin3 or thesecritical ser=ices and inrastr1ct1re also red1ces their tremendo1s =al1e as 2o creators and economic dri=ers. Americans depend on o1r p1lic lands and ocean mana3ement a3encies inthree cr1cial areas/ ro=idin3 saet) and sec1rit) (weather orecastin3, park ran3ers, >re>3hters, the Coast P1ard, etc.8 nhancin3 economic contri1tions (the Department o theFnterior le=era3ed J*L% illion in economic acti=it) s1ch as oil and 3as, minin3, timer, 3razin3, and recreation in "#$$8 reser=in3 AmericaEs shared histor), herita3e, and recreationopport1nities (national parks, orests, seashores, and historic landmarks8 Woters reco3nize the =al1e o these ser=ices and ) nearl) a *!to!$ mar3in oppose red1cin3 conser=ation 1ndsto alance the 1d3et. A poll cond1cted ) the Nat1re Conser=anc) determined that G percent o =oters sa) that, ?e=en with ederal 1d3et prolems, 1ndin3 or conser=ation sho1ldnot e c1t.B And in the "#$" election, =oters across "$ states appro=ed allot meas1res raisin3 J7 million or new parks and conser=ation initiati=es. As these statistics clearl) show,man) citizens are willin3 to pa) a little more in order to 1nd conser=ation and related pro3rams. Fn order to contin1e pro=idin3 these necessar) ser=ices to the American people,

con3ressionalGe('%icans m1st p1t orward a realistic plan that emraces oth re=en1e increases and spendin3 c1ts. S1ch an approach wo1ld maintain as m1ch

1ndin3 as possile or these critical and =al1ed 3o=ernment pro3rams. The cost to administer o1r lands and ocean a3encies is a so1nd in=estment or Americans d1e to the economic

and societal ene>ts the) pro=ide. &ttem(ting to %aance the %'dget and a=oid the >scal showdown simpl) %y c'ttings(ending witho1t a plan to increase re=en1emeans we will e less prepared or the neMt O1rricane Sand). Ft means we will e 1nale to control massi=e wild>res

http://americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2012/12/06/47053/7-ways-that-looming-budget-cuts-to-public-lands-and-oceans-will-affect-all-americans/






as 1ickl) as we can toda). And it means we will ha=e ewer places to h1nt, >sh, and relaM. Dm(act on p1lic lands and oceans The hite Oo1se @Ice o

9ana3ement and :1d3et released a report in Septemer determinin3 that the ?se1estration percenta3es or the non!deense 1nction wo1ld e a red1ction o L." percent ordiscretionar) appropriations and .7 percent or direct spendin3.B All o the c1ts descried in this iss1e rie are nondeense discretionar), eMcept or one acco1nt in the Coast P1ard thathas a deense 1nction and wo1ld recei=e a K.G percent c1t totalin3 J%# million in >scal )ear "#$*. Ft is important to note that the @Ice o 9ana3ement and :1d3et does not pro=idem1ch speci>cit) ao1t how these c1ts wo1ld e administered to indi=id1al pro3rams within a3encies. Ft lists them onl) in terms o hi3h!le=el 1d3et line items where appropriations aretracked. Hor eMample, the anal)sis shows that the National ark Ser=ice operations 1d3et will lose J$L* million, 1t it does not speci) which ser=ices or which parks will ear the r1nto this red1ction—those decisions are let to the a3encies and departments themsel=es. Ft is thereore diIc1lt to 31ess what sort o c1ts the a3encies mi3ht make—or eMample, whichareas mi3ht close, which pro3rams mi3ht end, how man) 2os will e lost, and other details. Ne=ertheless, we can easil) ass1me that c1ts on s1ch a massi=e scale will ha=e a ma2orimpact on a n1mer o ronts, and that Americans will eel them with re3ard to the ser=ices and =al1es that the a3encies pro=ide. ;ess acc1rate weather orecasts @ne o the mostimportant and e=ident in=estments that the ederal 3o=ernment makes is in weather prediction. :1t se1estration co1ld threaten the 3o=ernmentEs ailit) to pro=ide acc1rate weatherorecastin3 ) c1ttin3 the 1d3et or the a3enc) where weather prediction is ho1sed. F this happens, Americans will 3et less precise dail) weather reports and will s1fer thro13h lessacc1rate nat1ral disaster predictions or h1rricanes, lizzards, dro13hts, tornadoes, and other weather e=ents rom the m1ndane to the catastrophic. The National @ceanic and

Atmospheric A3enc) is the central a3enc) or critical weather prediction reso1rces. Fts National eather Ser=ice is the nationEs primar) so1rce o the data and anal)sis, ormin3 the asiso e=er)thin3 rom the orecasts )o1 recei=e rom meteorolo3ists on the mornin3 news to the National O1rricane CenterEs storm!trackin3 capailities to the lon3!term pro2ections o3loal climate chan3e. =en the eather ChannelEs orecasts come rom this a3enc)Es data. The 'nited States i s alread) allin3 ehind other nations when it comes to orecastin3capailities. As acc1rate as the National @ceanic and Atmospheric A3enc)Es predictions o the track o O1rricane Sand) pro=ed to e, 1ropean models predicted its landall da)s eore'.S. models did. As a res1lt, when meteorolo3ists so13ht to predict the arri=al and intensit) o the lar3e storm that slammed into the New York0New +erse) area less than a week aterSand), the) re1entl) reerenced the 1ropean modelEs predictions to lend more crediilit) to their reports. =en tho13h o1r domestic weather prediction capailities trail the 1ropeansin man) capacities, se1estrationEs L." percent c1t wo1ld make them e=en worse. @ne speci>c eMample in=ol=es the on3oin3 efort to replace o1r nationEs a3in3 weather monitorin3satellites. The Po=ernment Acco1ntailit) @Ice predicted that e=en at c1rrent spendin3 le=els, to 1) replacement satellites, ?there will li kel) e a 3ap in satellite data lastin3 $ to %*monthsB—the time it takes the old satellite to sh1t down and when its replacement can come online. D1rin3 this time, the acc1rac) o ad=ance warnin3s o impendin3 weather disasterss1ch as h1rricanes and lizzards co1ld decline ) as m1ch as %# percent. The National @ceanic and Atmospheric A3enc)Es ?roc1rement, Ac1isition, and Constr1ctionB acco1nt wo1ldace a J$GK million red1ction, accordin3 to the @Ice o 9ana3ement and :1d3etEs pro2ections. This wo1ld almost certainl) eMtend the amo1nt o time the co1ntr) will ha=e to 3et )

with lower!1alit) storm predictions and warnin3s, potentiall) ca1sin3 more dama3e and atalities d1e to inacc1rate weather prediction. Slower ener3) de=elopment Energyde+eo(ment is an important and le3itimate 1seof o'r lands and oceans. :oth onshore lands and the @1ter Continental Shel (lands owned ) the

'.S. that are 1nderwater ofshore8 pro=ide s1stantial nat1ral reso1rces 1sed or ener3). Fn act, *" percent o the oil, "$ percent o the nat1ral 3as, and G* percent o the coal prod1ced

in the 'nited States comes rom ederal lands and waters. Se'estration, howe=er, co1ld potentiall)hinder 3o=ernment a3encies rom

(anning" st'dying" and (ermitting this ener3) de=elopment ) limitin3 their reso1rces and a=ailale staf. 1lic lands and oceans

also ofer si3ni>cant opport1nities or renewale ener3) de=elopment. Recentl), the Department o the Fnterior anno1nced that it had appro=ed $#,### me3awatts o solar, wind, and3eothermal ener3) on p1lic lands, more than all pre=io1s administrations comined. The a3enc) is also makin3 pro3ress when it comes to ofshore wind de=elopment. The Cape indpro2ect has recei=ed all its permits and is preparin3 to e3in constr1ction on the co1ntr)Es >rst ofshore wind arm, in 9assach1settsE Nant1cket So1nd. And ater completin3 the >rstphase o its ?Smart rom the StartB initiati=e, which identi>es areas of the Atlantic coast that will e ofered to de=elopers, the a3enc) iss1ed its >rst lease 1nder the pro3ram in @ctoer.

:1t all o this pro3ress co1ld e drasticall) slowed 1nder se1estration. ;and and ocean management agencies face c'ts tothe (rograms that allow them to plan or, st1d), permit, and help 1ild ossil 1el and renewale ener3) pro2ects on an eIcient timeline. This means pro2ects will

take lon3er to 3et appro=ed and set 1p, dela)in3 the process o ener3) de=elopment and in some cases potentiall) stoppin3 it completel). The stallin3 o ener3) de=elopment rom o1rown p1lic lands and oceans will also mean a 3reater reliance on orei3n ener3) so1rces—an o1tcome weE=e een tr)in3 to 3et awa) rom or )ears. Speci>call), the Department o theFnteriorEs :1rea1 o ;and 9ana3ement aces an JL% million c1t to its ?9ana3ement o ;ands and Reso1rcesB acco1nt in >scal )ear "#$* alone. art o this acco1nt is de=oted to ener3)and minerals mana3ement, incl1din3 permit processin3 and en=ironmental anal)ses o ener3) pro2ects. The DepartmentEs Hish and ildlie Ser=ice also has 1nds that allow it to st1d)the impacts o ener3) de=elopment on species and haitats, 1t the acco1nt that is in part de=oted to this p1rpose—?Reso1rce 9ana3ementB—will e slashed ) J$#% million in "#$*1nder se1estration. These t)pes o c1ts co1ld dela) the en=ironmental re=iew process, makin3 it more diIc1lt or renewale ener3) pro2ects on p1lic lands to act1all) 3et of the

3ro1nd. Fn terms o ofshore ener3) de=elopment, the L'rea' of Icean Energy anagement wi %e c't )

J$* million in >scal )ear "#$* i the se1ester mo=es orward. This agency manages e,(oration" science"easing" (ermitting" and de+eo(ment of o=shore energy reso'rces , oth ossil and

renewale. S1ch a lar3e c1t to this a3enc)Es 1d3et co1ld slow down the recent pro3ress made on ofshore wind ener3) de=elopment on the @1ter Continental Shel.



&2 Cy%er Treaty Co'nter(anACy%erattackB



So+ency 6e-cit

Co'ntries ref'se to sign the treatyCJJ 12 CNN AleM Hitzpatrick, Hri Decemer $G, "#$", CNN, '.S. re1ses to si3n 'NFnternet treat), http/00www.cnn.com0"#$"0$"0$G0tech0we01n!internet!treat)0The United States, alon3 with the United ? in3dom and Canada, is ref'sin3 to sign aUnited Jations treaty on teecomm'nications and the Dnternet that has een

1nder ne3otiation or the past two weeks. Terr) ramer" the U*S* &m%assador to the WordConference on Dnternationa Teecomm'nications" said Th'rsday that @theU*S* cannot sign the treaty in its c'rrent form*@ @We candidy cannots'((ort an DTU treaty that is inconsistent with a m'ti9stakehoder modeof Dnternet go+ernance"@ said ramer d1rin3 a conerence session. &As the FT' has stated, thisconerence was ne=er meant to oc1s on Fnternet iss1es. Oowe=er, toda) we are in a sit1ation where we still ha=e

teMt and resol1tions that co=er iss1es on spam and also pro=isions on Fnternet 3o=ernance.& @Dnternet(oicy sho'd not %e determined %y mem%er states %'t %y citizens"comm'nities" and %roader society" and s'ch cons'tation from the (ri+atesector and ci+i society is (aramo'nt"@ he contin1ed. &This has not happened here.& The U*S*

decision to withdraw comes ollowin3 a s'r(rise mo=e late ednesda) in which the chair

o the conference caed a +oice +ote on contro+ersia (ro(osa thatenco'rages go+ernments to he( e,(and go%a Dnternet access. Ft was appro=ed in a

contro=ersial manner that let some participants con1sed and 1pset. Additionall), many co'ntries !! theU*S. incl1ded !! are o((osed to incl1din3 in the treaty an) lan31a3e ao1t the Fnternet at all. Dr.Oamado1n F. To1r, chair o the conerence, released a statement ar31in3 the a3reed!1pon treat) does not incl1deFnternet pro=isions. Fnstead, he said the contro=ersial proposal =oted 1pon ednesda) is o1nd in a non!indin3anneMed resol1tion to the treat). &The conerence did N@T sicU incl1de pro=isions on the Fnternet in the treat) teMt,&said To1r. &AnneMed to the treat) is a non!indin3 Resol1tion which aims at osterin3 the de=elopment and 3rowtho the Fnternet.& ramer had initiall) indicated the '.S. wo1ld remain en3a3ed in ne3otiations ater ednesda)Qsdiplomatic r1ck1s. Oe also denied r1mors the '.S. wo1ld e lea=in3 the conerence earlier this week. ;ater on Th1rsda), se=eral other co1ntries indicated the) a3reed the conerence is the wron3 or1m to disc1ss Fnternet

iss1es. Called the orld Conerence on Fnternational Telecomm1nications, or WCDT" the conferencewas intended to '(date a treaty go+erning internationateecomm'nications that hasn8t %een refreshed since 1. Since the conerence

e3an, the &merican deegation has arg'ed that Dnternet go+ernance iss'esare o'tside the sco(e of the conference* @ther co1ntries, incl1din3 R1ssia and China,

disa3reed, s1mittin3 proposals intended to help 3o=ernments >3ht c)erattacks and spam. The &mericans99 and many o(en Dnternet ad+ocates 99 warned those (ro(osas wo'd %e'sed to censor Dnternet 'sers and wo'd o(en the door to f'rtherdisr'(tions to the o(en we%* S A;S@/ 'neMpected contro=ers) er1pts at 'N Fnternet conerence The '.S. also ar31ed in a=or o 3o=ernments takin3 a hands!of approach to the Fnternet. &The Fnternet has 3i=enthe world 1nima3inale economic and social ene>t d1rin3 these past "G )ears,& said ramer. &All witho1t '.N.re31lation.&

& Treaty Wo'd 6o Jothing to Pre+ent Cy%erterrorist ;ro'(s

5in 12 Oerert ;in (Chie Scientist o the Comp1ter Science and Telecomm1nications :oard o the National Research Co1ncil8 +1ne L, "#$" g G/$Gp.m. DT, 'Snews, A Treat) o1ld Do Nothin3 to re=ent C)erterrorist Pro1ps,http/00www.1snews.com0deate!cl10sho1ld!there!e!an!international!treat)!on!c)erwarare0a!treat)!wo1ld!do!nothin3!to!pre=ent!c)erterrorist!3ro1psTraditiona arms control a((roaches do not work we in thinking a%o't theword of cy%erwar" and man) ostacles stand in the wa) o s1ch a treat) toda). & treaty wo'dnot constrain the %eha+ior of s1!national entities (e.3*" terrorist gro'(s, or3anized

crime8, which ha+e some interest and ca(a%iity to wage cy%erwar. The instr1ments o



cy%erwarfare are technicay hard to disting'ish from those o cy%eres(ionage,

and the latter is not ille3al 1nder international law since all nations p1rs1e it. Acco1ntailit) wo1ld e di3c'tto enforce, 3i=en a ack of carity a%o't who might %e res(onsi%e for acy%erattack that rises to the le=el o &warare.& Weri>cation o a treat) that anned the instr1ments oc)erwarare wo1ld e =irt1all) impossile. :eore we are read) to e3in ne3otiatin3 an) kind o treat) re3ardin3c)erwarare, a ew preliminar) steps are in order. Hirst, research is needed on whether some kind o arms control

a3reement in c)erspace, whose scope and nat1re are as )et 1nknown, co1ld still e 1se1l. The fact thattraditiona arms contro doesn8t e,tend we into cy%ers(ace sho'd not %etaken to mean that no form of cy%erarms contro is feasi%e* Second, nations

concerned ao1t cy%erwarfare sho1ld seek common 3ro1nd. &Common 3ro1nd& mi3ht inc'de de=elopin3 a common lan31a3e with which to descrie the iss1es, s1ch as 1nderstandin3 what acti=ities constit1te

a si3ni>cant c)erattack- how mi3ht damage or harm from a cy%erattack e assessed- whatacti=ities mi3ht constit1te e=idence o hostile intent- how sho1ld c)er eMploitation and intelli3ence!3atherin3 ediferentiated rom c)erattacks- how, i at all, sho1ld eMploitations or economic p1rposes e diferentiated romeMploitations or national sec1rit) p1rposes- how, i at all, sho1ld militar) comp1ter s)stems and networks e

separated rom those o the ci=ilian pop1lation- how to determine the si3ni>cance o nonstate (arties that

might a'nch cy%erattacks- and how nations mi3ht respond to s1ch attacks. Third" it may %e(ossi%e to reach agreement regarding certain to(ics in cy%ers(aceo'tside the domain of nationa sec'rity. Hor eMample, man) nations reco3nize ra1d and childporno3raph) as si3ni>cant prolems in c)erspace and ha=e to some eMtent a3reed on meas1res to deal with

them. rotection o national inrastr1ct1res rom third9(arty attacks may %e anothercommon interest* F the steps ao=e ear r1it, the res1ltin3 re3ime ma) 3o a lon3 wa) toward la)in3 theo1ndation or a more ar!reachin3 treat) re3ardin3 c)erwarare sho1ld that e deemed desirale

Treaty on cy%er wea(ons wo'd %e totay 'nenforcea%e5indsay 12 +on ;indsa) (Research Hellow at the 'ni=ersit) o Caliornia Fnstit1te onPloal Con<ict and Cooperation at 'C!San Die3o8 +1ne L, "#$" g G/$G p.m. DT,'Snews, Fnternational C)erwar Treat) o1ld X1ickl) :e Oacked to :its,http/00www.1snews.com0deate!cl10sho1ld!there!e!an!international!treat)!on!c)erwarare0international!c)erwar!treat)!wo1ld!1ickl)!e!hacked!to!itsCas for internationa cy%erwarfare treaties are certainy we9intentioned/ Theri3htenin3 prospect o widespread destr1ction o the comp1tin3 networks that r1n the nationQs power, water,

transportation, and militar) command and control s)stems is somethin3 we wo1ld all like to a=oid. Oowe=er, thea(ocay(tic rhetoric of catastro(hic cy%erwar 'sed to $'stify considerationof a cy%erarms contro treaty is o+er%own and misre(resents the act'athreat. An internationa treaty is the wrong sort o so'tion to this prolem and might e=en

enco'rage the =er) acti+ity it seeks to constrain. A c)erweapon (like St1Mnet, whichdama3ed Franian 1rani1m enrichment8 is not like a n1clear om or a 31n that can e 1sed to dama3e man)diferent t)pes o tar3ets all aro1nd the world. Traditional weapons can e tested on a ran3e, stockpiled in an

arsenal, and >red predictal) at their tar3ets in wartime. & cy%erwea(on, ) contrast, m'st %e

care1ll) engineered against any (artic'ar target" and this re'ires a ot ofinteigence" technica e,(ertise" test infrastr'ct're" and o(erationamanagement. A c)erattack is less like a strate3ic omin3 attack deli=ered ) a ormidale orce oairplanes and missiles and more like a special operation sta3ed ) a darin3 and o commandos ar ehind enem)

lines. & cy%erwea(on or espiona3e (like the sp)ware D11 and Hlame8 likewise re'ire ots of

(anning and e,(ertise to contro. Co=ert operations are risk) 3amles (the) mi3ht ail or e

compromised i mistakes in plannin3 or eMec1tion are made8, and the damage they ca'se is farmore 'n(redicta%e than that of traditiona wea(ons. States resort to co=ert actionoptions onl) when the) donQt ha=e the will or ailit) (or either material or political reasons8 to 1se o=ert orce.hen states act co=ertl), the) reak the domestic laws o other states (which is wh) spies can e ca13ht andtried8. 's1all) states moderate their amitions or co=ert action eca1se the) donQt want to tri33er escalator)

retaliation in the e=ent the operation is compromised. Cy%er9o(erations, like other t)pes o intelli3ence

and co=ert operations" take (ace in the shadows. &n international treaty oncy%erwea(ons wo'd %e like an international treat) a3ainst espiona3e and co=ert action. This is



totay 'nenforcea%e" since s1ch acti=it) is desi3ned to e=ade detection and attri1tion. There will eno comprehensi=e c)erweapons treat) eca1se it is, 1nort1natel), not in the interest o the (=er) ew8 states thatha=e the capailities to create s1ch weapons to come to shared de>nitions, a3reed monitorin3, and enorcement

mechanisms, and credile commitments to rerain rom 1sin3 them. E+en if it were somehow(ossi%e to get agreement not to 'se cy%erwea(ons of a (artic'ar ty(e"this wo'd ony (ro+ide incenti+es for states to disco+er the oo(hoes and

e,ce(tions in the aw* This is 1ndamentall) what malicio1s hackin3 entails, ater all/ s1per>cialoedience to the r1les (in silicon or law8 in order to e=ade deenses and make mischie. The Tro2an Oorse oser=ed

the norms o 3it!3i=in3 in ancient Preece, and this hastened the downall o Tro)- simiary" mawarecan ony e,(oit +'nera%iities eca1se code in the tar3et s)stem allows it to do so. 9oreo=er, the

techni1es or en3ineerin3 compleM cy%erattack and e,(oitation wi e+o+e far, ar

faster than internationa agreements, and states wo1ld e oolish to p1t their aith in protection

o international law alone. The rhetoric o cy%erwar is frightening, 1t the realit) is more complicated.

& word witho't cy%erwea(ons is (ro%a%y more desira%e" %'t aninternationa treaty is not the way to get there. F am not a law)er (F write as aninternational sec1rit) scholar8, 1t F s1spect that eMistin3 international law o war and le3al mechanisms ormana3in3 co=ert operations in this co1ntr) are proal) s1Icient, or at most need 21st mar3inal ad21stments, in

order to deal with the prolems posed ) c)erweapons. Cy%erwar is not a re+o'tionaryde+eo(ment" %'t a com(icating eectronic ea%oration on candestine and

co+ert o(erations" and states ha+e %een cond'cting these for cent'ries



2&C F 5inks to Poitics

iitary Cy%er I(erations Poicies Sa( PCLek \ Joyes 12Roert and 9atthew, Rsch ^ The :eler Center,http/00elercenter.ks3.har=ard.ed10>les0c)ersec1rit)!pae!elk!no)es.pd U

Additionall), there are interagency (oitica iss'es that com(icate 1niorm cy%er(oicy. DOS has the responsiilit) to protect '.S. citizens within the orders, 1t the =ast ma2orit) o c)er

reso1rces reside at NSA and DoD. A "##K National Research Co1ncil (NRC8 report s133ests that miitarye,terna cy%er o(erations wo'd ha+e im(ications for other agencies.missions (incl1din3 DoS and Treas1r)8.%K A consideration or polic) makers, thereore, will e the acilit) inali3nin3 these =ario1s interests.

;astl), the a1thorization or the 1se o orce constit1tionall) rests with Con3ress.Sho'd an agency decide to engage in e,terna cy%er o(erations that co'd%e considered a 'se of force" it may re'ire Congressiona a((ro+a*&chie+ing this (oiticay Aand e,(editio'syB may (ro+e (ro%ematic. This

s133ests that the need eMists or estalishin3 pre!appro=ed a1thorit) le=els, and ha=in3 a ro1st deate toestalish norms or acceptale c)er action.

http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/cybersecurity-pae-belk-noyes.pdf

http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/cybersecurity-pae-belk-noyes.pdf



1&G F 5inks to Poitics

Jo risk of a ink t'rn 9 t'rf %attes mean no agency raiess'((ort

6yc's 1# (Stephen D)c1s, roessor at Wermont ;aw School, #L0$$0$#, +@'RNA;@H NATF@NA; SC'RFTY ;A V@;FCY, ?Con3ressEs Role in C)er arareB,http/002nslp.com0wp!content01ploads0"#$#0#L0$$5D)c1s.pd, A:8

Congress m'st work hand in hand with the E,ec'ti+e, howe=er, to [ confront

these e=ol=in3 threats. The im(ortance of coa%orati+e (anning b can %e seen in arecent eMchan3e o correspondence in which leaders o the b Senate Select Committee on Fntelli3ence wrote to the Director oNational b Fntelli3ence to ask ao1t ?the ade1ac) o the Director o National b Fntelli3ence and Fntelli3ence Comm1nit) a1thorities

o=er c)ersec1rit).B7 The Director answered/ b This is a +ery im(ortant iss'e . . . . A 21d3ment re3ardin3 theb ade1ac) o DNF a1thorities and an) chan3es, additions, or b clari>cations will necessaril) depend on the AdministrationEs b

strate3ic plan on c)er, and where the center o 3ra=it) will e b within the Mec1ti=e ranch. . . . We ha+e morework to do in the [ E,ec'ti+e Lranch %efore D can gi+e yo' a good answer.b

The strategic" technoogica" and (oitica (ro%ems descri%ed here [

(resent chaenges of 'n(recedented com(e,ity. The risks of error %oth in[ the form'ation of a cy%er warfare (oicy and in its e,ec'tion are [

s'%stantia. And des(ite the im(ortance o de=elopin3 a coherent, b coordinated response to this threat,

it seems 'nikey that we wi -nd a way [ to o+ercome entirey the

endess t'rf %attes among federa agencies and [ congressiona

committees.Lb Still, the need is so pressin3 and the stakes are so hi3h that we cannot b aford not to tr). The =er) 1t1re othe Rep1lic ma) depend on o1r aili t) b not onl) to protect o1rsel=es rom enemies armed with c)er weapons, 1t b also to 1ses1ch weapons wisel) o1rsel=es. This article eMamines some o b the rele=ant le3al iss1es and s133ests some possile sol1tions.



&2 e,ican Genewa%es Co'nter(anA;ridB



2&C F CP Jot So+e ;rid

Jo transmission ca(acityWood 12 ! hD in olitical St1dies ^ X1eenEs, roessor ^ FTA9 in 9eMico Cit)

(D1ncan, et al, ilson Center,http/00www.wilsoncenter.or30sites0dea1lt0>les0:order5ind5ner3)5ood.pd800::Hor the state o :a2a Caliornia, this b prolem is made e=en more ac1te eca1se b there is nointerconnection %etween b the state and the nationa grid" making b e,(ort of eectricity to (ri+ate cons'mers b in other states im(ossi%eat the (resent b time* e,ico.s nationa grid is in fact three b grids, with

:a2a Caliornia Norte and b :a2a Caliornia S1r each ha=in3 their own b independent s)stem.b & f'rthere+e of di3c'ty is fo'nd b with cross9%order transmission. A 1ick b s1r=e)

o the ao=e map shows that there are b ony a imited n'm%er ofinterconnectionsb across the %order* >'rthermore" ony ) of b theseconnections are %i9directiona. Fn b :a2a Caliornia, the 9i31el!Ti21ana and the b Fmperial

Walle)!Rosarita interconnections b (oth "*#kW AC8 ha=e a comined capacit) b o L## 9, in Coah1ila the

a3le assiedras Ne3ras interconnection ($*LkW b OWDC8 has a capacit) o onl) *L 9, and in b Tama1lipasthe ;aredo!N1e=o ;aredo ($*LkW b WHT8 and 9cAllen!Re)nosa ($*LkW OWDC8 b interconnections ha=e a

comined capacit) o b "%# 9. These interconnections are ma,ed b o't and

therefore cannot %e considered b for f't're cross9%order eectricitytrade* Dn b addition to these ines o(erated %y C>E" there b are two(ri+atey owned transmission ines of b !1# W (owned ) Fnter3en8 and $"## 9

b (owned ) Sempra8.b The (ro%em of cross9%order b transmission has %eenidenti-ed in a n'm%er b of (re+io's re(orts on wind and renewale b ener3) in

9eMico,%b and in "#$# the two b co1ntries set 1p a task!orce to address b the iss1e.7b Altho13h this 3ro1p

has met a b n1mer o times, there a((ears to %e itte b moment'm ehind the

initiati=e, with each b side %aming the other for ack of (rogress .




CP sa(s (oitica ca(ita F gets drawn into other iss'esWison 1! Z Associate at the 9eMico Fnstit1te o the oodrow ilson

Fnternational. Center or Scholars (Christopher ., +an1ar), ?A '.S.!9eMico conomicAlliance/ olic) @ptions or a Competiti=e Re3ion,Bhttp/00www.wilsoncenter.or30sites0dea1lt0>les0new5ideas51s5meMico5relations.pd8At a time when 9eMico is poised to eMperience ro1st economic 3rowth, aman1act1rin3 renaissance is 1nderwa) in North America and ilateral trade isoomin3, the United States and e,ico ha+e an im(ortant choice to make/sit ack and reap the moderate and perhaps temporal ene>ts comin3 nat1rall)rom the e=ol=in3 3loal conteMt , or implement a ro1st a3enda to impro=e thecompetiti=eness o North America or the lon3 term . ;i+en that $o% creation andeconomic growth in %oth the United States and e,ico are at stake" t hechoice sho'd %e sim(e" %'t a imited 'nderstanding a%o't themagnit'de" nat're and de(th of the U*S*9e,ico economic reationshi(

among the ('%ic and many (oicymakers has made serio's action tos'((ort regiona e,(orters more (oiticay di+isi+e than it o'ght to %e*




CP drains PC>arnsworth 12 Z W o the Co1ncil o the Americas and Americas Societ) (ric,

?The 'nited States and 9eMico/ The ath HorwardB, No= *#,http/00www.americanpro3ress.or30iss1es0sec1rit)0news0"#$"0$$0*#0G7G*#0the!1nited!states!and!meMico!the!path!orward0, C9R8The eection of nri1e ea Jieto and the re9eection of resident I%ama mean that

the U*S*9e,ican reationshi( has a 'ni'e o((ort'nity to grow coser and%ring n'mero's %ene-ts to %oth sides of the %order. To 1ll) appreciate this 1ni1e

opport1nit), %oth sides m'st in+est (oitica ca(ita and %e (re(ared to

engage domestic ('%ic o(inion when it comes to e,(aining why o'rco'ntries are 'nited %y m'ch more than a fence*

H'ge o((osition to the co'nter(an>arah 0 (+oseph, ?TO N @R;D DFS@RDRb C@RNYN ANTS '.S. TA]AYRS

b T@ H'ND 9]FCAN DW;@9NTB, 0$*, http/00www.wnd.com0"##70#0*7KKL0,C9R8

?The ('r(ose of this f'nd is to reinforce e=orts alread) 1nder wa) in 9eMico toens're their (sic8 own economic de+eo(ment,B Corn)n said. ?The 1ndin3 wo1ld make 3rantsa=ailale or pro2ects to constr1ct roads in 9eMico, to acilitate trade, to de=elop and eMpand their ed1cationpro3rams, to 1ild inrastr1ct1re or the deplo)ment o comm1nications ser=ices and to impro=e 2o trainin3 and

workorce de=elopment or hi3h!3rowth ind1stries.Bb As ND reported recentl), o((osition is

mo'nting to simiar (rograms, incl1din3 resident :1shEs North American Sec1rit) and rosperit)

artnership.b Pans ) 3o=ernment a3encies and pri=ate o1ndations aike (romoting dee(ercoo(eration %etween the three co'ntries Z incl1din3 e=en a plan or a common c1rrenc)

called the ?ameroB Z

are getting more scr'tiny in the media,

%y acti=ists and )

('%ico3cias.

Jo ink t'rns F s'((ort is minima to non9e,istentSanchez ) (9arcela, ?@1r Sad Ne3lect o 9eMicoB, 9a) "L,http/00www.washin3tonpost.com0wp!d)n0content0article0"##%0#%0"0AR"##%#%"#$$KG.html, C9R8There is a strong sense in this co'ntry that e,ico8s (ro%ems are of itsown making, and m1st e sol=ed ) 9eMico. That is why ormer :1sh oIcial Richard A. Halkenrath and

others sa) a signi-cant inf'sion of U*S* aid into e,ico is a @ nonstarter *@ Fndeed,

9eMico desperatel) needs to collect more taMes and reorm its ener3) sector and laor laws !! healin3 itsel )remo=in3 str1ct1ral constraints that make it more a Third orld nation than the economic powerho1se it co1ldecome.b The North American Hree Trade A3reement, si3ned more than $# )ears a3o ) Canada, 9eMico and the'nited States, was s1pposed to 3enerate more 2os in 9eMico, raise salaries and red1ce peopleQs incenti=e toemi3rate. That pro=ed to e wish1l thinkin3. Fn act, NAHTA has not 3enerated the n1mer o new 2os predicted,nor has it alle=iated r1ral po=ert) in man) areas o 9eMico. That wo1ld re1ire, accordin3 to an 1pcomin3 report onNAHTA ) the Fnstit1te or Fnternational conomics, &a s1stained period o stron3 3rowth and s1stantial income

transers to poorer states.&b There are some in this co1ntr), a minority to e s1re, who say

Washington m'st get in+o+ed more directy* @therwise, the) ar31e, 9eMico wonQt e ale

to red1ce disparities or at least another h1ndred )ears. Amon3 them is Roert Pastor, a ormer Carter

administration oIcial who has tireessy arg'ed for a Jorth &merican Dn+estment>'nd* astor cites a "### orld :ank estimate that 9eMico wo1ld need J"# illion per )ear or a decade in

http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/news/2012/11/30/46430/the-united-states-and-mexico-the-path-forward/


http://www.wnd.com/2006/07/36998/

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/05/27/AR2005052701194.html




http://www.wnd.com/2006/07/36998/





essential inrastr1ct1re and ed1cational pro2ects to red1ce that $## )ears to $#. b Pastor is 'nder noi'sions that s'ch a f'nd wi %e created any time soon. Certainl) the :1shadministration is not talkin3 ao1t an) s1ch ideas within the recentl) la1nched Sec1rit) and rosperit) artnershipo North America, the latest amitio1sl) named pro2ect that wonQt e=en to1ch on immi3ration, altho13h immi3ration

is directl) connected to sec1rit) and prosperit).b The administration and Congress are 'nder

itte (ress're to dee(en the U*S* commitment to e,ico , not when the

('%ic is increasingy fearf' of and resentf' toward immi3rants, partic1larl)e,icans. :1t i an)thin3, s1ch sentiments prolon3 ille3al immi3ration in the sense that the) distract citizensand leaders alike into thinkin3 that i )o1 p1t 1p eno13h arriers, 9eMicans will 3o awa).



&2 H1L Co'nter(an ATechCom(etiti+enessB



2&C F H1Ls Jot ?ey Tech Com(etiti+eness

H91L workers don.t contri%'te to tech s'(remacya* They ha+e ow9e+e" ow9res(onsi%iity $o%s

%* They don.t -t into the M%est and %rightestN categoryc* Dt.s hy(ed %y the tech ind'stryato= Professor of Com('ter Science ] UC 6a+is (Norman, Centeror Fmmi3ration St1dies, ?O!$:s/ Still Not the :est and the :ri3htestB 9a),http/00www.cis.or30articles0"##L0ack%#L.html, 9ike8Dn (ress'ring Congress to e,(and the H91L work +isa and emplo)ment!ased 3reencard pro3rams, ind1str) lo)ists ha=e recentl) adopted a new tack. Seein3 that their past cries o a tech laor

shorta3e are contradicted ) sta3nant or declinin3 wa3es, their new %'zzword is inno+ation.

L'iding on their (erennia assertion that the foreign workers are Mthe%est and the %rightest"N they now say that contin'ed U*S* eadershi( inscience" technoogy" engineering" and mathematics (ST98 hinges on o'ra%iity to im(ort the word.s %est engineers and scientists* Yet, this

Lackgro'nder wi (resent new data anaysis showing that the =ast ma$orityof the foreign workers — incl1din3 those at most ma2or tech >rms — are (eo(e of $'stordinary taent" doing ordinary work* They are not the inno+ators theind'stry o%%yists (ortray them to %e* F presented some initial anal)ses alon3 these lines in anearlier :ack3ro1nder,$ showin3 or instance that ST9 orei3n st1dents at '.S. 1ni=ersities tend to e at the less!

selecti=e 1ni=ersities. Oere F present a m1ch more direct anal)sis, makin3 1se o a sim(e %'t (owerf'idea Df the foreign workers are indeed o'tstanding taents" they wo'd %e(aid accordingy. We can th's easiy determine whether a foreign worker isamong Mthe %est and the %rightestN %y com('ting the ratio of his SDCsaary to the (re+aiing wage -g're stated %y the em(oyer* 5et.s ca thisthe Taent eas're ATB* ?ee( in mind that a T +a'e of 1*# means thatthe worker is merey a+erage" not of o'tstanding taent* F comp1ted median T9 =al1es or

=ario1s s13ro1ps o interest. A s1mmar) o the res1lts is/ The median T9 =al1e o=er all orei3n workers st1died was 21st a hair o=er $.#. The median

T9 =al1e was also essentiall) $.# in each o the tech proessions st1died. 9edian T9 was near $.# or almost all prominent tech >rms that wereanal)zed. Contrar) to the constant h)perole in the press that American (and estern 1ropean8 kids are weak at math in comparison with theirco1nterparts in Asia, T9 =al1es or 31est workers rom estern 1ropean co1ntries tend to e hi3her than those o the Asians. A3ain notin3 that a T9=al1e o $.# means 21st a=era3e, the data show dramaticall) that most orei3n workers, the =ast ma2orit) o whom are rom Asia, are in act not ?the estand the ri3htest.B Note that the stat1tor) de>nition o pre=ailin3 wa3e takes into acco1nt eMperience le=els. Fn other words, the T9 =al1e or a workercompares him to workers o the same le=el o eMperience, not to the workorce as a whole. Th1s the modest T9 =al1es o1nd here or the 31est workerscannot e dismissed ) pointin3 to the act that man) o the 31est workers are )o1n3er. This article also presents 1rther data showin3 an e1all)important point/ 9ost orei3n workers work at or near entr) le=el, descried ) the Department o ;aor in terms akin to apprenticeship. This co1ntersthe ind1str)Es claim that the) hire the workers as ke) inno=ators, and a3ain we will see a stark diference etween the Asians and 1ropeans. 9ethodolo3)

The anal)sis 1ses data rom the 6e(artment of 5a%or.s Permanent a%or Certi-cationProgram (PEG8," which consists o inormation s1pplied ) emplo)ers when the) sponsor orei3n worker or permanent residenc), i.e.

3reen cards. There are ad=anta3es to 1sin3 this dataase rather than its O!$: co1sin. Hirst, it addresses the concern eMpressed ) some that O!$: ;aorCondition Applications (;CAs8 are merel) re1ests or permission to hire orei3n workers, witho1t speci)in3 act1al workers, who ma) e chosen later. :)contrast, each record in the R9 data is or an act1al orei3n worker, containin3 his act1al salar) and other inormation. (The R9 orm allows anemplo)er to speci) salar) as a ran3e rather than as a sin3le =al1e, 1t this is rarel) 1sed.8 Second, the R9 data incl1de inormation concernin3 thenationalit) o the orei3n worker, enalin3 the etween!co1ntr) comparisons in the anal)sis here. Hinall), the R9 data show the c1rrent =isa stat1s othe worker, which is t)picall) O!$: 1t is sometimes @!$. The law de>nes the @!$ =isa as appl)in3 to ?workers o eMtraordinar) ailit).B Since these are the

workers o interest here, it 3i=es 1s a asis o comparison. Note that whie most workers in the PEGdata%ase are H91Ls" the con+erse is not tr'eV many H91Ls are nots(onsored for green cards. T)picall) emplo)ers onl) sponsor their etter O!$:s or permanent

residenc). Th1s if the PEG data show that most workers in the PEG data arenot Mthe %est and the %rightest"N then e+en fewer of the H91Ls o+era arein that category. The anal)sis 1ses the "## R9 data. The data were >rst screened, eliminatin3 ho1rl)workers, clear t)po3raphical errors, and so on. Talent 9eas1re Anal)sis A3ain, F take as o1r Talent 9eas1re (T98the ratio o a workerEs salar) to the pre=ailin3 wa3e claimed ) the emplo)er. The emplo)er is le3all) re1ired topa) at least the pre=ailin3 wa3e, and m1st state on the R9 application how that wa3e le=el was determined.*Since the application will e re2ected i the wa3e ofered is elow the pre=ailin3 wa3e, ) de>nition all =al1es o T9will e at least $.#. The latter =al1e means ?the a=era3e worker,B i.e. o a=era3e talent, so i most workers ha=e T9=al1es close to $.#, then most are proal) not ?the est and the ri3htest.B ith that it mind, letEs look at T9



=al1es, oth o=erall and also or some speci>c occ1pations/ The trend" %oth genera and forSTE occ'(ations" is cear ost T +a'es are ony a itte higher than1*#" indicating that most of the foreign workers are not o'tstandingtaents. The soe e,ce(tiona occ'(ation is mathematicians. Tho13h rather ewworkers are in this cate3or), the T9 =al1e is worth some comment. The anomal) is likel) d1e to the recent interestin data minin3, which has created a de acto two!tier wa3e str1ct1re amon3 mathematicians, in which those whospecialize in data minin3 are paid m1ch more. Since the pre=ailin3 wa3e >31res do not distin31ish etween thesetiers, the oIcial pre=ailin3 wa3e =al1e set or mathematicians will e well elow the market wa3e or data miners.

Th1s it is proale that e=en these orei3n workers are not ?the est and the ri3htest.B 5o%%yists for the%ig -rms often caim that a%'se of the H91L (rogram occ'rs mainy inDndian9owned M%odysho(sN (>rms that s1contract O!$:s to lar3er companies8, whie %ycontrast the %ig -rms are hiring Mthe %est and the %rightest*N et neitherthis sca(egoating of the Dndians nor the caim of hiring the to( taents iswarranted* Consider the T9 =al1es ater disa33re3ation ) >rm/ Tho13h these >31res are sli3htl) ao=e the

o=erall >31res we saw earlier, the) still show that the -rms are not (aying saariesindicating to( taents. E+en icrosoft, on the hi3h end o the companies shown here, is not(aying to( doar" as seen ) restrictin3 attention to 9icrosotEs workers holdin3 the @!$ =isa. As @!$ isspeci>call) or, in the phrasin3 o the stat1te, ?workers o eMtraordinar) ailit),B this 3i=es 1s a meas1re o thesalaries 9icrosot pa)s to those orei3n workers who in act are ?the est and the ri3htest.B The median T9 or9icrosot @!$ workers is $.G#G. That represents a salar) premi1m o more than do1le what the >rm is 3i=in3 itsorei3n workers in 3eneral, so there does not appear to e m1ch s1pport or 9icrosotEs claim that most o their O!

$:s are o eMtraordinar) talent. Th1s a3ain, it is readil) apparent that e=en the most prominenttech >rms, which are in the =an31ard o the ind1str) mo=ement (ress'ringCongress to e,(and foreign worker (rograms" generay do not hire rom?the est and the ri3htestB lea31e* ast =s. est The o%%yists o+e to caim thatthe ind'stry resorts to hiring foreign workers %eca'se &mericans are weak in math and science* Oario's internationa com(arisons of math/sciencetest scores at the !$" le=el are o=ered as Me+idence*N The caims are s(ecio's— after a" %oth ma$or so'rces of foreign tech workers" Dndia and China"ref'se to (artici(ate in those tests" and Dndia contin'es to %e (ag'ed witha high iiteracy rate. Serio1s ed1cational research, incl1din3 an earlier Arizona State 1ni=ersit) reportGand a recent ma2or st1d) ) the 'ran Fnstit1te% show clearl) that mainstream American kids are doin3 >ne in

ST9. Ne=ertheless, the ?Asian m)sti1eB persists. The ima3e is that o1r tech ind1str) owes its s1ccess to armieso mathematical 3eni1ses arri=in3 to '.S. 3rad1ate schools rom Asia. @nce a3ain, tho13h, the data do not s1pportthis perception. Oere is a comparison o T9 =al1es or orei3n workers rom the ma2or Asian co1ntries and their

co1nterparts in 1rope and Canada/ The diferences here are not lar3e, 1t ne=ertheless, a of theWestern nations ha+e higher median T +a'es than a the &sian nations— 'ite the o((osite of the (ortraya %y the ind'stry o%%yists* Taking acoser ook" et.s ta%'ate median T for the ma$or worker9sending nationsin %oth hemis(heres" against the ma$or occ'(ations Whie sti mid" thetrend again indicates that the Western foreign workers are the moretaented ones. Hinall), what ao1t indi=id1al >rms4 Fnterestin3l), the 3ap etween ast and est widens.;etEs check the >rms with the lar3est n1mers o orei3n workers/ There are some interestin3 eMceptions or

China, 1t in 3eneral the trend ollows the pre=io1s pattern. ;e=el o Oire &s noted" recenty theind'stry o%%yists ha+e ado(ted an inno+ation theme" in which they caim

that the U*S* ead in tech de(ends on hiring inno+ators from a%road* Theanaysis a%o+e demonstrates that the foreign workers are in fact 3enerall)not o1tstandin3 talents, th1s castin3 serio1s do1t on the claim that inno=ators areein3 hired * Oere we p1rs1e this point 1rther, ) eMaminin3 the le=el at which the imported workers are hired. The R9 data 1se the ollowin3

classi>cation scheme/7 ;e=el F is de>ned ) the Department o ;aor as or ?e3innin3 le=el emplo)ees who ha=e onl) a asic 1nderstandin3 o theocc1pation and whoU perorm ro1tine tasks that re1ire limited, i an), eMercise o 21d3ment.B orkers at ;e=el FF ?perorm moderatel) compleM tasks thatre1ire limited 21d3ment.B Clearl), neither ;e=el F nor FF is or inno=ators. ;e=el FFF implies more sophisticated responsiilities, 1t onl) ;e=el FW s133eststhat inno=ators are ein3 hired, workers who ?plan and cond1ct work re1irin3 21d3ment and the independent e=al1ation....B re=io1s work anal)zed O!$: data, >ndin3 that most O!$:s are concentrated in ;e=els F and FF. Fn the tales elow we eMtend that work in the R9 data, addin3 anal)sis )occ1pation, nationalit) and >rm. The res1lts >rst show, once a3ain, that rather ew o the orei3n workers are at ;e=el FW, the le=el o real eMpertisewhose description is associated with inno=ation. 9ost are in act in ;e=els F and FF, whose D@; de>nitions are or apprentice!like positions with onl) ?limitedeMercise o 21d3ment,B clearl) not 2os or inno=ators. Second, this pattern also holds indi=id1all) or the most common 2o titles. Third, the ast!=s.!estpattern oser=ed earlier or the T9 data also holds or le=els o eMpertise, with Asians t)picall) ein3 hired into non!inno=ati=e 2os while more 1ropeans



are in the t)pes o positions that co1ld in=ol=e inno=ation. The last tale is strikin3. 9ost o the i3 >rms hire almost no workers at all at ;e=el FW.

Since it is these +ery -rms that are arg'ing they need foreign workers inorder to inno+ate" there a((ears to %e a striking disconnect %etween whatthey say and do. Disc1ssion and Concl1sions The o%%yists for the tech ind'stry andthe &merican Dmmigration 5awyers &ssociation know that cryinged'cationa doom9and9goom ses. E+en tho'gh it was (eo(e %orn and

ed'cated in the United States who were (rimariy res(onsi%e forde+eo(ing the com('ter ind'stry" and e+en tho'gh a ma$or East &siango+ernments ha+e amented their ed'cationa systems8 sti4ing ofcreati+ity" the o%%yists ha+e con+inced Congress that the ind'stry needsforeign workers from &sia in order to inno+ate. The data show otherwise.

ost foreign tech workers" (artic'ary those from &sia" are in fact of onya+erage taent. 9oreo=er, they are hired for ow9e+e $o%s of imitedres(onsi%iity" not (ositions that generate inno+ation* This is tr1e otho=erall and in the ke) tech occ1pations, and most importantl), in the >rms most stridentl)

demandin3 that Con3ress admit more orei3n workers. Note a3ain that the anal)ses presented herecon>rm and pro=ide m1ch sharper 1antitati=e insi3ht into pre=io1s work showin3that the O!$:s are o 21st a=era3e talent. Ft has een shown or instance that orei3n st1dents in the

'.S. tend to e concentrated in the less!selecti=e 1ni=ersities, and that the) recei=e a lower percenta3e o researchawards relati=e to their n1mers in the st1dent pop1lation. Fn the workorce, the orei3n nationals in the '.S.

participate in teams appl)in3 or patents at the same percenta3e as do the '.S. citizens, and so on. To %es're" the a'thor is a strong s'((orter of faciitating the immigration of theword8s %est and %rightest. Oe has acted on that elie, ) championin3 the hirin3 o eMtraordinaril)

talented researchers, mostl) rom Fndia and China, into his department ac1lt). :1t as seen here" +ery few of the foreign workers are of that cai%er* E,(ansion of the g'est worker(rograms 9 %oth H91L +isas and green cards 9 is 'nwarranted. ^;EJ6EGE6 5&J;U&;E S&D6 DJ CIJTEYT



1&G F H1Ls Jot ?ey Tech Com(etiti+eness

Jo interna ink to tech inno+ation9 ma$ority of H91L workersare in %iochem and (hysics research" not tech or com('ters

ato= ! (Norman, roessor o Comp1ter Science, 'ni=ersit) o Caliornia, ?@N TO ND H@R RH@R9 @H TO O!$: N@N!F99FPRANT @R WFSA FN C@9'TR!R;ATD @CC'ATF@NSB8

The ind'stry o%%yists often im(y that a arge fraction of their H91Lworkers are hired from U*S* 'ni+ersities where the workers had %eenst'dying for Ph6s. Hor eMample, Dar)l Oatano o the Semicond1ctor Fnd1str) Association testi>ed toCon3ress, ?Non! '.S. citizens now represent o=er hal o the h.D.s 3rad1atin3 rom '.S. 1ni=ersities insemicond1ctor >elds . . . To ha=e access to the orei3n talent 3rad1atin3 rom AmericaEs 1ni=ersities, '.S.

companies m1st appl) or O!$: =isas or their orei3n proessional workers.B$$ The &mericanEectronics &ssociation arg'ed that Mneary haf of a Ph*6*.s grad'atingfrom &merican 'ni+ersities in the technica -eds of com('ter engineeringand eectrica and eectronic engineering are awarded to foreign nationas.

Pi=en this hea=) in=estment in ed1cation, s1pported ) '.S. dollars, it is in the national interest to retain this talent1sin3 the O!$: pro3ramU.B $" +enn) Werderi, FntelEs 9ana3er o d1cation and orkorce olic), said,$* ?e arenot ale to >nd eno13h 1ali>ed '.S. workers in certain disciplines )ear ater )ear, partic1larl) in the science anden3ineerin3 areas . . . there has een a shorta3e in the areas that we hire at or 1ite some time—and thatEs

primaril) 9asterEs and h.D. desi3n en3ineers.B The lo)istsE >31res ao1t percenta3es oorei3n st1dents in '.S. post3rad1ate pro3rams are indeed correct.$G :1t theimplication that the lo)ists are makin3 or O!$:s is not correct. @n the contrar), theo+era (ro(ortion of H91L.s who transitioned from U*S* 'ni+ersities is onya%o't 2# (ercent.$% Ao1t *0 (ercent of workers in the genera H91L(o('ation ha+e a Ph6*170 That -g're is aready m'ch smaer than theim(ications made %y the ind'stry o%%yists" %'t in fact forcom('terreated H91Ls the -g're is e+en smaer.$ This is d'e argey tothe fact that most of the Ph6 H91Ls are in non9com('ter areas" working as

'ni+ersity (ostdoctora research assistants in %ioogy" chemistry and(hysics* Hor eMample, in the )ear "###, there were $G,L science ?postdocsB on temporar) =isas.$L Then1mer o )earl) O!$: =isas 3ranted aro1nd that time was $$%,###,$K and .7 percent o this is L,G#. =en

acco1ntin3 or the act that man) orei3n postdocs hold +!$ =isas rather than O!$:, it is cear that the+ast ma$ority of Ph6 H91Ls are 'ni+ersity researchers in the (hysica and%ioogica sciences" not com('ter scientists or engineers working inind'stry*

H91Ls don.t so+e tech s'(remacy9The workers aren.t e+enhighy skiediano" awyer and com('ter (rogrammer" +ohn, ?Do e Need Horei3n

Technolo3) orkers4B, G0L, $he %ew &or' $imes,http/00roomordeate.lo3s.n)times.com0"##K0#G0#L0do!we!need!orei3n!technolo3)!workers0U

The act is, o'r immigration (oicy is +ery wecoming to highy skiedworkers, and has een or decades. L't this as(ect of the immigrationsystem tends to get itte attention* Dnstead" m'ch of the de%ate inthis area has %een dri+en %y a d'm%ing down of what @highy skied@means. When the ann'a 'otas on H91L +isas are e,ha'sted" one



often hears o%%yists arg'ing that the word8s %est and %rightest are%eing sh't o't*

:1t or the most part the people who seek O!$: =isas !! and ma) e arred )the 1otas !! are not eMtremel) hi3hl) skilled workers. & coege degree froma corres(ondence schoo can 'aify someone for an H91L +isa*

Em(oyers making ski9%ased (re+aiing wage caims for H91Lcom('ter workers cassify most as %eing at the owest ski e+e* There(orted wages for the ma$ority of H91L com('ter workers is in the%ottom 2)th (ercentie of U*S* wages* Dn short" H91L is a chea( a%or(rogram %eing marketed as a (rogram for the highy9skied*




Co'nter(an is (oitica s'icide on a fronts—com(eteydestroys %i(artisanshi(

SacLee .1# (?@ama 1shes Fmmi3ration Reorm, Hinall),B +1l) $,http/00lo3s.sacee.com0the5swarm0"#$#0#0oama!p1shes!immi3ration!reor.html, 9ike8Fn his >rst ma2or speech on immi3ration reorm as president, :arack @ama said toda) what he had to sa). Fnkeepin3 with his cool persona, he ro13ht some welcome reason and rationalit) amid the o=erheated rhetoric and

o=erreaction to ArizonaQs new law. Almost e+eryone agrees the immigration system is%roken* L't in noting the (oitica gridock on the iss1e, I%ama also

acknowedged that there is no %i(artisan consens's on the so'tion. The(resident %amed @(oitica (ost'ring and s(ecia interest wranging& and

a1lted Rep1licans he said had s1cc1med to the @(ress'res of (artisanshi( and eection9year (oitics.& &FQm read) to mo=e orward, the ma2orit) o Democrats are read) to mo=e orward and F

elie=e the ma2orit) o Americans are read) to mo=e orward. :1t the act is that witho1t ipartisans1pport, as we had 21st a ew )ears a3o, we cannot sol=e this prolem,& @ama (shown in the

Associated ress photo ao=e8 said at American 'ni=ersit) in ashin3ton, D.C. &Geform that %ringsacco'nta%iity to o'r immigration system cannot (ass witho't Ge('%ican+otes,& he added. &That is the (oitica and mathematica reaity*@ That moment@ama reerred to was in "##, when Democratic Sen. dward enned) o 9assach1setts and Rep1lican Sen. +ohn9cCain o Arizona proposed a sweepin3 immi3ration reorm ill. resident Peor3e . :1sh was on oard. :1t

opponents, incl1din3 especiall) =ociero1s oes on the right wing of the ;IP, stopped that

moment1m cold. :) caing s'ch (ro(osas @amnesty,& the) made it political s1icide ora Rep1lican with national amitions to si3n on to s1ch a meas1re . Three )ears later, thesit1ation is, i an)thin3, worse. And r1strations ha=e led to meas1res like the Arizona law, set to take efect laterthis month, which calls on law enorcement to check the immi3ration stat1s o residents i the) ha=e a reasonales1spicion the) mi3ht e ille3al. Critics call it a recipe or racial pro>lin3, and Sacramento and other Caliornia citiesha=e anno1nced o)cotts in response. @ama s1pports a plan similar to the / H1rther sec1re the orders, penalize1sinesses that hire ille3al immi3rants and ofer a path to citizenship or ille3al immi3rants alread) li=in3 here !! i

the) pa) >nes and ack taMes and learn n3lish.

The (resident has %een criticized %yreform ad+ocates for not more aggressi+ey ('shing their ca'se. Oisadministration made the political calc1lation that it wanted to >rst pass an economic stim1l1s, health care reormand a >nancial re31lator) o=erha1l. The >rst two are law, and the third will almost certainl) win >nal passa3e when

the Senate ret1rns rom its +1l) Ho1rth recess. So now it8s time for immigration reform* L'tthat one may t'rn o't to %e the to'ghest to (ass of a .

http://blogs.sacbee.com/the_swarm/2010/07/obama-pushes-immigration-refor.html







Dmmigration is the JEW third rai in (oitics to'ch it and 6DEGotterdam" senior feow at the ohn 5ocke >o'ndation" 79arc, Fmmi3ration/ The New Third Rail o American olitics O'9AN WNTS osted$"0$*0"## http/00www.h1mane=ents.com0article.php4id6"*K*KUDmmigration is the new Mthird raiN of &merican (oitics* F know, eca1se F rememer

the old third rail. The od third rai, o co1rse, was Socia Sec'rity* To'ch it" and die(oiticay* :ack in the ei3hties the Rep1lican art) wo1ld ro1tinel) come 1p with plans in Con3ress to?reormB Social Sec1rit). ;ike clockwork !! when the neMt Con3ressional election came aro1nd !! the Democraticart) led ) then Speaker Thomas ?TipB @Q Neil wo1ld dema3o31e the iss1e- and prono1nce with TW ads that

Rep1licans wanted to pri=atize Social Sec1rit) and, ) the wa), c1t or eliminate 3randmaEs ene>t check. Jow"it.s the 6emocrats. t'rn to to'ch the new third rai" immigration* FtEs happenin3to the Democrats nationall), and itEs happenin3 to them here in North Carolina` Con3ressional rep1lican

inc1ments were orced to pla) ?deenseB- as the late ;ee Atwater 1sed to sa), MDf yo'8re defending incam(aigns 99 yo'8re osingN D1rin3 the &Pin3rich re=ol1tion& o $KKG Rep1lican challen3ers incon3ressional districts thro13h o1t America were schooled that ?words matteredB and that the ?est deense was a3ood a 3ood ofense.B So the Rep1lican messa3e re<ected the will o the ma2orit) o Americans that the social

sec1rit) contract m1st not e roken. And the phrasin3 in speeches and ad=ertisin3 re<ected the will o thema2orit). A ke) phrase was that man) rep1lican 1sed and contin1e to 1se toda) is this !! &e need to preser=e,protect, and stren3then social sec1rit).B Rep1lican inc1ments and challen3ers alike were enco1ra3ed to?inoc1lateB on the iss1e !! in essence to preempti=el) strike with a positi=e messa3e prior to ein3 attacked. Still,and 1ntil this da), social sec1rit) reorm remains a =olatile iss1e with the American electorate and to some de3ree anet pl1s or democrats. @ne onl) look at Peor3e . :1shQs "##% proposal or personal sa=in3s acco1nts or )o1n3erworkers. Ft was ?dead on arri=alB in con3ress and it ell on dea ears with the American p1lic. Ft seems to me that

in the "##L election the new emotiona and s'%stanti+e iss'e that the elite politicians did not

3rasp (+ohn 9cCainEs amnest) ill8 1t now is s1arel) in their ace !! is ille3al immigration with all itsrami>cations. Sec1rin3 the orders and national so=erei3nt) are iss1es that neither part) can i3nore. @ne onl)look at how Oillar) Clinton ?<1edB the 1estion in a recent Democratic deate re3ardin3 New York Po=ernorSpitzerEs decision to iss1e dri=ers licenses to ille3al aliens to see the impact this iss1e can ha=e on ones nationalstandin3 and poll n1mers. (And ) the wa) !! the a directi=e was recentl) rescinded 1nder intense p1lic press1re) Po=ernor Spitzer.8 Fn the Rep1lican presidential primar) oth R1d) Pi1liani and 9itt Romne) ha=e tried to o1tdo each other on the iss1e 1t oth ha=e little crediilit) with the =oters ased on past perormances while inoIce. ?Sanct1ar) citiesB ha=e een the main topic o disc1ssion etween the two campai3ns. Fn the lastRep1lican deate oth 9r. Pi1liani and 9r. Romne) chose to attack each either rather than to ofer s1stanti=esol1tions. @n the campai3n trail oth ha=e een s1pporti=e o a ph)sical ence and or =irt1al ence 1t with nodate certain or completion. Now leadin3 the polls in Fowa and So1th Carolina is ormer Po=ernor 9ike O1ckaeewho has laid o1t a detailed plan or order sec1rit) and enorcement. Ois plan also incl1des a date certain orcompletion o a ph)sical ence. Oere in North Carolina, man) Rep1lican le3islators in the Peneral Asseml) aretr)in3 to hold the asle) Administrations eet to the >re with respect to the r1le o law and asle)Es constantattempts to circ1m=ent the process when it comes to iss1in3 dri=es licenses to ille3al aliens. And recentl) !! thecomm1nit) colle3e s)stemQs law)er iss1ed a directi=e =iolatin3 the law and admittin3 ille3als aliens to comm1nit)colle3es i the) pa) o1t o state t1ition. Deate is ens1in3 within the 'NC s)stem alon3 the same lines. hat is

clear is that iega immigration is %ecoming the de-ning iss'e o the "##L election.

Those who stand for amnesty" dri+ers icenses for iega aiens" in state oro't of state t'ition for iega aiens at o'r instit'tions of earning ando(en %orders wi (ay a (rice at the (os* Con+ersey those who res(ectthe r'e of aw" o'r so+ereignty and the wi of the &merican (eo(e wi %e

rewarded (oiticay when the citizens of this co'ntry cast their +otes inthe fa*

5i%eraizing Dmmigration is too hot to hande5&T" 7 TO NATF@N- NS ANA;YSFS- Fmmi3ration pro=ed too hot or :1sh,Con3ress to handle. +anet Oook. ;os An3eles Times. +1l $, p3. A."#U



Hor most o this )ear, immi3ration reorm looked like an iss1e whose time had >nall) come, with the 1n1s1al

con<1ence o a Rep1lican president, a Democratic Con3ress and the p1lic all demandin3 a sol1tion. :1t thes(ectac'ar coa(se of the SenateQs ipartisan immigration egisation last week

demonstrated that the seemin3l) a's(icio's (oitica en+ironment was nomatch for an iss'e that was 21st too hot to handle* The illQs demise rele3ates ille3al

immi3ration to a acklo3 o national prolems !! s1ch as Social Sec1rit)Qs impendin3 insol=enc) and the ederal

1d3et de>cit !! that the president and Con3ress ha=e not een ale to sol=e. &Ft smells an aw1l lot like SocialSec1rit),& said ormer Rep. ;eon . anetta, a Caliornia Democrat who had a i3 hand in the last o=erha1l o

immi3ration law, in $KL7. &Peo(e are hesitant to to'ch a so'tion" %eca'se it isgoing to a33ra=ate some =er) power1l constit1encies who are going to comeafter them *& The ostacles to reachin3 a consens1s on immi3ration speak =ol1mes ao1t the nationQs politics and c1lt1re !! and how

m1ch the) ha=e chan3ed in the two decades since Con3ress last dealt with the prolem. Since resident Rea3an si3ned the landmark le3islation,which le3alized some * million 1ndoc1mented immi3rants, the media en=ironment has een transormed ) talk radio and a "G0 cale news c)clethat 1els emotions on the political eMtremes. An in<1M o ille3al immi3rants has altered the pop1lation across the nation, not 21st in a hand1l o

order states. And the (oitica system has %ecome so (oarized that awmakers8com(romise!1ildin3 skis seem to ha=e atro(hied. Fn the wake o those chan3es, theSenate %atte o+er immigration showed how hard it now is or Con3ress and the

president to confront emotiona iss'es when an incensed minorit) tries toderai the e=orts* olls ha=e shown that most &mericans fa+or aowing iega

immigrants to %ecome citizens if they earn Engish" (ay -nes and meetother re'irements* L't the o(inions e,(ressed on senatoria (honesand in e9mais were o+erwhemingy those o the (oiticay agitatedo((osition* roponents o le3alization contend the prolem o ille3al immi3rants will onl) 3et harder to

sol=e as the n1mer 3rows !! and as p1lic an3er intensi>es. @The di+isions get dee(er andwider with the (assage of time"@ said Sen. Christopher +. Dodd (D!Conn.8, a presidential candidate. :1t the iss1e is

not an eas) one to o=erlook/ Flle3al immi3ration is wo=en ti3htl) into the aric o da)!to!da) li=es across the co1ntr). Hail1re to decide how to handlethe estimated $" million ille3al immi3rants in the '.S. is tantamo1nt to estalishin3 a permanent 1nderclass lar3er than the pop1lation o @hio.Asent o ederal action, a ma2or shit co1ld occ1r in the national alance o power on ille3al immi3ration/ 9ore state and local 3o=ernments are likel)to act on their own in response to clamor or a crackdown. The res1lt wo1ld e to the detriment o those who seek a sol1tion more acceptin3 o ille3al

immi3rants and co1ld create a patchwork o con<ictin3 laws. Ne=ertheless, it is hard to see :1sh and Con3ress re=isitin3 the iss1e soon. ?ey(ayers in the de%ate 99 es(eciay those who took the ead in seeking acom(rehensi+e so'tion 99 are 'nikey to risk another dramatic fai're* Hor

:1sh, the immi3ration initiati=e was the domestic polic) capstone o his second!term a3enda !! and the cornerstone o his plan to eMpand the P@ )makin3 his part) more welcomin3 to ;atinos. Now, his domestic polic) c1poard is are, and his hopes o 1ildin3 a lastin3 P@ ma2orit) are intatters. Sen. +ohn 9cCain (R!Ariz.8, a leadin3 :1sh all) on the iss1e, has seen his presidential prospects dim in no small meas1re eca1se o hiss1pport or the immi3ration ill. Ois ri=als or the presidenc) deli3ht in pointin3 o1t that he cosponsored the ill with lieral icon Sen. dward 9.enned) (D!9ass.8. Hor Democrats, who control the Oo1se and Senate, another ailed attempt at immi3ration o=erha1l co1ld e eMploited )Rep1licans who criticize their stewardship o Con3ress as 1nprod1cti=e. And inc1ments o oth parties risk the wrath o a p1lic that is increasin3l) 2a1ndiced ao1t ashin3tonQs ailit) to address ma2or prolems. &Americans donQt elie=e the 3o=ernment is representin3 them, actin3 on theirehal,& said Sen. +on )l (R!Ariz.8. &e will not restore their con>dence i we ail to act.& The immi3ration ill, the prod1ct o a &3rand ar3ain& ) aipartisan coalition incl1din3 )l and enned), died in part eca1se its ackersQ enth1siasm wasnQt stron3 eno13h a3ainst the intensit) o its

opponents. Fts a1thors were o(erating in a +ery di=erent (oitica en+ironment thanin 10* :ack then, there were ar ewer ille3al immi3rants, concentrated in a hand1l o states. Cratin3 an

immi3ration compromise re1ired lawmakers onl) to alance the competin3 concerns o special interests

directl) afected ) the polic) !! emplo)ers, immi3rant 3ro1ps, a3ri1siness- awmakers argeydidn8t ha+e to worry a%o't managing (owerf' nationa (oitica forces*>ew politicians tho'ght of it as a lie!or!death political iss1e. &Ft was m1ch more an

insidersQ deate,& said Doris 9eissner, who ser=ed as immi3ration commissioner d1rin3 the Clinton

administration. &Ft did not en3a3e the co1ntr) in the wa) this deate is en3a3in3 the co1ntr). Ft was not a3al=anizin3 iss1e.& Now immigration is a nationa iss'e that reaches far %eyondthe interests directy a=ected* And %order sec'rity concerns ha+eheightened since the Se(t* 11 terrorist attacks. & ;a'( Po in 2### fo'ndthat ony 1)X of those s'r+eyed worried a great dea a%o't iegaimmigrationV that $'m(ed to <)X this year* hatQs more, (os indicate thatthe iss'e is -g'ring more (rominenty in how +oters size '( (oiticacandidates* Fn a poll ) the ew Research Center or the eople V the ress last month, %G said a



presidential candidateQs stand on immi3ration wo1ld e =er) important in their decision on how to =ote- *G

said it wo1ld e somewhat important. &s recenty as 2##<" immigration was not e+enin the to( 2# iss'es* &hat is clear is the e+e of an,iety a%o't iegaimmigration has %een rising" and een acceerating in the ast few years"@said Roerto S1ro, director o the nonpartisan ew Oispanic Center. &@ne element o the anMiet) is a sense theederal 3o=ernment has ailed in one o its asic responsiilities.& Pro=er Nor1ist, a conser=ati=e acti=ist whos1pported the :1sh immi3ration initiati=e, contends that politicians and anal)sts ha=e eMa33erated the potentialpolitical allo1t rom s1pportin3 lieralization o immi3ration law. &Yo1 cannot show me an election whereimmi3ration was the decidin3 iss1e,& Nor1ist said. &F this was a sil=er!1llet iss1e, where is resident Tancredo4& he said, reerrin3 to the lon3shot presidential campai3n o Rep. Tom Tancredo (R!Colo.8, a leadin3

critic o ille3al immi3ration. :1t it is not s1rprisin3 that awmakers 99 especiall) in conser=ati=e states !! fear (oitica fao't %eca'se the %i (ro+oked o((osition that wasstriking in its intensity and +icio'sness* Critics threatened to seek(rimary o((onents for Rep1lican %ackers of the %i* Pro(onents were%ooed and hecked at part) con=entions and town!hall meetin3s. Some awmakersrecei+ed threats and reported them to the Capitol olice. &Yo1 sho1ld 3o into the witness protection

pro3ram eca1se o )o1r work on this iss1e,& said one letter to Senate 9a2orit) ;eader Oarr) Reid (D!Ne=.8. Thecr1cial Senate roll call last week re<ected a ipartisan consens1s that the ill was ra13ht with risk or an)one

acin3 =oters soon. If the !! senators who may r'n for reeection in 2##" 2!

+oted to ki the immigration %i* That s133ests that one egacy of theimmigration im%rogio is a transformation of the iss'e from a shinin3

opport1nit) or ipartisan cooperation into the new &third rail& o American politics 99 aniss'e that" ike Socia Sec'rity reform" (oiticians wi 4ee as i theirpolitical li=es are at stake.

Dmmigration is the new !rd rai of (oitics" ignites massi+e and+oca o((osition—it.s a key nationa 4ash(ointChicago Tri%'ne" 7 Fmmi3ration iss1e ecomes politicsQ newest third rail- +ill\1ckman. +1n *#, "##. p3. $UCon3ressQ dramatic ail1re this week to reach consens1s on immi3ration reorm is almost certainl) a harin3ero whatQs not to come/ ma2or le3islati=e accomplishments thro13h the end o resident :1shQs term. The Oo1se

and Senate are sharpl) di=ided, and :1sh, his pop1larit) low, is mired in lame!d1ck stat1s. Con3ress t)picall)ecomes dormant d1rin3 a presidential election )ear, and ipartisan cooperation will likel) slide 1rther o1t oreach in "##L on e=er)thin3 rom ener3) to ed1cation to retirement to health!care le3islation. Hew iss1es

showcase this paral)sis as m1ch as immigration reform" which has %ecome the newthird rail of (oitics 99 to1ch it and )o1 die, the sa)in3 3oes. Dega immigrantsha+e %ecome a li3htnin3 rod for im(assioned discontent in some 1arters, making it increasin3l) di3c't for (oiticians to -nd common gro'nd witho'triskin3 the retri1tion o =oters. P'%ic o(inion (oing shows +oters areincreasingy concerned a%o't the (ro%em" worrying that immigrantsare taking $o%s and straining go+ernment ser+ices* @=erwhelmin3l)" theyo((ose e=orts to make it easier for 'ndoc'mented immigrants to%ecome citizens" 1t the) are split on other potential remedies. The ill that died Th1rsda) had s1pport

rom 21st *# percent o Americans, recent polls showed. 9emers o Congress re4ect thesentiments of their constit'ents" es(eciay the most +oca ones, and the

immigration meas1re was doomed in lar3e part %y a we9organized grass9rootscam(aign %y angry o((onents* F the immi3ration ill had not ailed in the Senate, it was s1rel)

doomed in the Oo1se. &Dt to'ched a ner+e" and the shock of it shot rightthro'gh the Senate"@ said Senate 9inorit) ;eader 9itch cConne (R!).8. &Dt it '( theswitch%oards here for weeks and ignited a de%ate that strained o'rnorma aiances here and at home in o'r states*@ National <ash point =en while



>3hts o=er iss1es s1ch as 3a) ri3hts, aortion and 31n control ma) e losin3 some o their ener3), in part

eca1se Democratic leaders ha=e sotened their more p1rist stands, immigration seems to %emo+ing to center stage to - that roe of 4ash (oint for the nation8semotiona de%ates o+er its identity* Fronicall), oth sides a3ree that the nationQs

immi3ration s)stem is roken, with poro1s orders posin3 a national sec1rit) threat and an estimated $" million

1ndoc1mented immi3rants li=in3 inside the '.S. with an 1ncertain 1t1re. @There8s a consens1s on the

prolem, 1t no consens's on the so'tion"@ said Par) aco%son" a (oiticascientist at the Uni=ersit) o Caliornia, San 6ie3o. &Con3ress has a hard time dealin3 with iss1es where

p1lic di=isions are stron3 and there isnQt an) si3n o a p1lic consens1s on an) partic1lar sol1tion.& The iss1edi=ided oth parties, with Rep1lican opponents the most adamantl) a3ainst the immi3ration compromise asthe) laeled it an &amnest)& ill that 1ndermined the r1le o law. :1siness!oriented Rep1licans ha=e eenm1ch more in a=or o accommodatin3 immi3rants than c1lt1ral conser=ati=es, strainin3 the P@ coalition. @nthe Democratic side, man) o2ected to the illQs pro=ision that wo1ld ha=e 3i=en preerence to skilled workers

when awardin3 =isas, at the eMpense o re1nitin3 amilies. S'((orters o the meas1re, meanwhile,

co'd not match the o((onents8 intensityV e=en its creators called it an imperect

compromise. &Dt was a complicated challen3e that was +ery contro+ersia,& said Sen. Dick D1rin

o Fllinois, the assistant Democratic leader. &Ft was easy for its critics to e,(oit*@



6isads



Poitics 5ink T'rnsS6& is %i(artisan and (o('ar with the ('%icWickander 1)

Carl, reporter or the Fndependent Woter Network, ?:ipartisan Sec1re Data Act OasWotes to ass Oo1se, :1t ill ;awmakers Dra3 Their Heet4,B "0K0$%,http/00i=n.1s0"#$%0#"0#K0ipartisan!sec1re!data!act!=otes!pass!ho1se!will!lawmakers!dra3!eet0 S+;ast week, a %i(artisan gro'( of egisators introd'ced a ill intended to protect AmericansEpri=ac) and online data. Fn a press release, '.S. Reps. Thomas 9assie (R!).8, +ames Sensenrenner (R!is.8, and

\oe ;o3ren (D!Cali.8 anno1nced that the p1rpose o the Sec're 6ata &ct o "#$% is not to restrict theailit) o intelli3ence a3encies to collect data in 3eneral. Oowe=er, the) do intend to re!assert the role o Con3ressin re31latin3 these acti=ities/ ?Con3ress has allowed the AdministrationEs s1r=eillance a1thorities to 3o 1nchecked) ailin3 to enact ade1ate reorm. . . . ith threats to o1r homeland e=er pre=alent, we sho1ld not tie the hands

o the intelli3ence comm1nit). :1t 'nwarranted, %ackdoor s'r+eiance is indefensi%e. The Sec1re Data Act is an important step in re1ildin3 p1lic tr1st in o1r intelli3ence a3encies and strikin3 theappropriate alance etween national sec1rit) and ci=il liert).B The ill is an attempt to speci>call) 31ard a3ainstackdoor searches, incl1din3 those where ?identi>ersB s1ch as phone n1mers and e!mail addresses known to

elon3 to Americans are emplo)ed to cond1ct the searches. Hor )ears, pri=ac) ad=ocates ha=e deno1nced theset)pes o searches as a wa) to skirt the law. Accordin3 to the Re3ister, a '!ased tech site, ?'nder the proposedSec1re Data Act, de=elopers cannot e orced to insert sec1rit) holes into de=ices and code.B An AC;' law)er1oted in the stor) said that the pre=io1s illEs s1ccess mi3ht indicate ?that at least in the Oo1se the) know how

important it is to sec1re encr)ption eforts.B assie" 5ofgren" and Sensen%renner tried to(ass a simiar +ersion of the Sec're 6ata &ct near the end o the $$*th Con3ress. Theegisation (assed with %road s'((ort" 2!912!" %'t was not inc'ded inthe omni%'s %i that (assed at the end of the session. A Senate =ersion o the Sec1reData Act was introd1ced ) @re3on '.S. Sen. Ron )den (D8 in +an1ar). Ois ill is still waitin3 to mo=e thro13h theSenate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation. Re3ainin3 the peopleEs tr1st ma) e one o the

harder ostacles when it comes to re31lations on sp)in3 and s1r=eillance. Pos ha+e consistentyshown that &mericans do not a((ro+e of the c'rrent methods ofs'r+eiance and data coection*

S6& has o+erwheming %i(artisan s'((ortWhi((y 1)eter, Con3ressional Stafer, ?Sensenrenner, 9assie V ;o3ren Fntrod1ce Sec1reData Act,B US House of (epresentatives )ress (eleases, "0G0$%,https/00lo3ren.ho1se.3o=0news0doc1mentsin3le.aspM4Doc1mentFD6*KL* S+Li(artisan awmakers toda) reintrod'ced the Sec're 6ata &ct to protect AmericansEpri=ac) and data sec1rit) ) prohiitin3 s1r=eillance a3encies rom re1irin3 or compellin3 s1r=eillance

?ackdoorsB in prod1cts and ser=ices. & simiar amendment to the Department o Deense

Appropriations Act ast year (assed the Ho'se o Representati=es %y an o+erwheming

"K*!$"* +ote. This amendment was not incl1ded in the CRomni1s. '.S. Reps. +im Sensenrenner (R! is.8, Thomas 9assie (R! ).8, and \oe ;o3ren (D!Cali.8, sponsors o the Sec1re Data Act o "#$%, iss1ed the ollowin3statement/ ?Con3ress has allowed the AdministrationEs s1r=eillance a1thorities to 3o 1nchecked ) ailin3 to enact

ade1ate reorm. 5ast Congress" the 9assie!Sensenrenner!;o3ren amendment garnereds'((ort from an o+erwheming %i9(artisan ma$ority in the Oo1se as a pro=ision to the

Deense Appropriations ill, %'t 1nort1natel), was not inc'ded in the CGomni%'s* iththreats to o1r homeland e=er pre=alent, we sho1ld not tie the hands o the intelli3ence comm1nit). :1t1nwarranted, ackdoor s1r=eillance is indeensile. The Sec1re Data Act is an important step in re1ildin3 p1lictr1st in o1r intelli3ence a3encies and strikin3 the appropriate alance etween national sec1rit) and ci=il liert).B

http://ivn.us/2015/02/09/bipartisan-secure-data-act-votes-pass-house-will-lawmakers-drag-feet/


https://lofgren.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=397873



https://lofgren.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=397873



Em%argo Dm(act T'rns



Tra3cking

5ifting the Em%argo wi increase se, tra3cking F thego+ernment is em(iricay wiing to hide it*

CD& %0$%/1! Central Fntelli3ence A3enc). (Do the) need 1ali>cations4 +k Z the) are anindependent 'S 3o=ernment a3enc) responsile or pro=idin3 national sec1rit) intelli3ence8.9a) $%, "#$*. ?The orld Hactook.B https/00www.cia.3o=0lirar)0p1lications0the!world!actook03eos0c1.html Accessed 0%0$* 00SOC'%a is a so'rce co'ntry for ad'ts and some chidren s'%$ected to forceda%or and se, tra3ckingV prostit1tion o children reportedl) occ1rs in C1a asprostit1tion is not criminalized or an)one ao=e $7 )ears old- the scope otraIckin3 within C1a is partic1larl) diIc1lt to 3a13e d1e to the closed nat1re othe 3o=ernment and sparse non!3o=ernmental or independent reportin3 tier ratin3/

Tier * 9 C'%a does not f'y com(y with the minim'm standards for theeimination of tra3cking and is not making signi-cant e=orts to do soV thego+ernment did not ('%icize information a%o't go+ernment meas'res toaddress h'man tra3cking thro'gh (rosec'tion" (rotection" or (re+entione=orts d1rin3 the reportin3 period ("#$#8 Fllicit dr13s/ Territorial waters and airspace ser=e as transshipment zone or 'S! and 1ropean!o1nd dr13s- estalishedthe death penalt) or certain dr13!related crimes in $KKK ("##L8

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/cu.html%20Accessed%207/5/13






Liodi+ersity

aintaining the em%argo is +ita to s'staining C'%an%iodi+ersity

Canney 12 A&e,is" MThe Threat of 5ifting the US Em%argoN" &kismet" arch 1 2#12"htt(//(ages*+assar*ed'/c'%antransitions/the9threat9of9ifting9the9's9em%argo/B//CL

C'%a.s (oitica isoation and economic imitations ha+e s(eed s'ccessfor its widife in the ast )# years. ith C1aEs limited ailit) to de=elop as other Carieannations ha=e, and the contin1in3 'S emar3o helpin3 to keep C1a in the past, C1aEs nat1ral reso1rces ha=e een

preser=ed in a wa) not seen in most o the world. Howe+er" no em%argo can ast fore+er" andmany %eie+e that the US em%argo wi end soon* Whie some might ookforward to cee%rating the end to the hostiity and the new (otentia toenrich the C'%an economy" others worry a%o't the f't're of C'%a.s 'ni'enat'ra en+ironment. ;ike an) other co1ntr), C1a does ha=e a histor) o en=ironmental eMploitation.@nl) a ew )ears ater Col1m1sE ?disco=er),B Spanish settlers arri=ed and e3an to clear the land to estalishplantations. This deorestation onl) worsened thro13h the ollowin3 cent1ries. C1aEs ori3inal orest co=er had eenK#. Fn $K%K, it stood at a mea3er $G. Oowe=er, one o Hidel CastroEs priorities since $K%K has een to conser=eC1aEs nat1ral reso1rces. Since then, reorestation has slowl) taken place, and toda) o=er "7 o the co1ntr) isorested.b Altho13h Castro, and C1a as a whole, sho1ld e reco3nized or its dedication to conser=ation, in tr1th, alot o the preser=ation o C1aEs land has een d1e to C1aEs inailit) to de=elop it as most >rst world co1ntrieswo1ld ha=e done. ith the withdrawal o s1pport rom the So=iet 'nion in $KK$, C1aEs econom) collapsed.

itho1t access to modern technolo3ies, C1an t1rned to s1stainale or3anic armin3 practices. Witho'tca(itaism dri+ing its de+eo(ment" C'%a has a+oided m'ch of theen+ironmenta destr'ction seen in other -rst word co'ntries* [ 6'e tothese (oitica and economic factors, and also to the act that C1a is an island, C1a has

de=eloped in a 1ni1e wa). C'%a %oasts incredi%e %iodi+ersity and is home to more than ,###endemic species o plants and animals. @ne o these incl1des the ee h1mmin3ird, the smallest ird in eMistence.C1aEs coral rees are o partic1lar eMcitement or marine scientists. As coral rees worldwide ha=e een s1ferin3the efects o 3loal warmin3, poll1tion, oats, and >shin3, C1aEs rees ha=e een the least afected.'nort1natel), this paradise is threatened ) man) prolems, despite eforts, incl1din3 poll1tion, iodi=ersit) loss,

and deorestation. @n top o this, threat o 'S to1rism looms. Df the em%argo is ifted" US

to'rists wi 4ood the isand" (romoting the constr'ction of new resortswhich wi destroy %each ha%itats aong the coasts. ith the econom) also <ooded with'S dollars, possil) p1llin3 C1a o1t o its economic downt1rn, will C1a contin1e to re1se the temptin3technolo3ies which ha=e de=astated richer co1ntriesE en=ironments4 ith 'S companies ea3er to drill or oil ofC1aEs shores, p1ttin3 press1re on the 3o=ernment to lit the emar3o, this 1estion ecomes especiall) 1r3ent. b

To com(icate matters f'rther" en+ironmentaists from %oth C'%a and theUS are imited in the amo'nt of work they can do %y the em%argo*Comm'nication is tricky. Calls to the 'S in C1a are eMpensi=e, while the internet is restricted to mostC1ans. hile scientists can sometimes recei=e academic permits to st1d) in C1a, the 'S rarel) allows C1an

scientists to enter the co1ntr). &tho'gh ifting the em%argo wo'd end these(ro%ems" as we as enriching the C'%an economy" the 'estion is" asaways" wo'd the en+ironmenta degradation %e worth itK As it mo=es orward, isthere a wa) that C1a can preser=e its 1ni1e en=ironment4

http://pages.vassar.edu/cubantransitions/the-threat-of-lifting-the-us-embargo/

http://pages.vassar.edu/cubantransitions/the-threat-of-lifting-the-us-embargo/



Criti'es



Jeoi% ;ood

>ree arkets are key to (re+enting war" and tech inno+ation

Landow #)(Doug Bandow is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, specializing in foreign policy and civilliberties. He worked as special assistant to resident !eagan and editor of the political"agazine Inquiry.# $ove"ber %&&'

http/00www.cato.or30p1lications0commentar)0spreadin3!capitalism!is!3ood!peaceUa world that seems constantl) a<ame, one nat1rall) asks What ca'ses (eace4 9an) people, incl1din3

'.S. resident Peor3e . :1sh, hope that s(reading democracy wi disco'rage war* L'tnew research s'ggests that e,(anding free markets is a far moreim(ortant factor" leadin3 to what Col1mia 'ni=ersit)Es Erik ;artzke cas a Mca(itaist(eace*N Dt.s a reason for e+en the eft to s'((ort free markets* The capitalistpeace theor) isnEt new/ 9ontes1ie1 and Adam Smith elie=ed in it. 9an) o :ritainEs classical lierals, s1ch asRichard Coden, p1shed ree markets while opposin3 imperialism. :1t orld ar F demonstrated that increasedtrade was not eno13h. The prospect o economic r1in did not pre=ent rampant nationalism, ethnic hatred, andsec1rit) ears rom tr1mpin3 the power o markets. An e=en 3reater con<ict ollowed a 3eneration later. Thank1ll),orld ar FF let war essentiall) 1nthinkale amon3 leadin3 ind1strialized ! and democratic ! states. S1pport 3rew

or the ar31ment, 3oin3 ack to Fmman1al ant, that rep1lics are less warlike than other s)stems. Today.scoroary is that creating democracies o't of dictatorshi(s wi red'cecon4ict* This contention animated some s'((ort o'tside as we as insidethe United States for the in+asion of Dra* L't ;artzke arg'es that Mthedemocratic (eace. is a mirage created %y the o+era( %etween economicand (oitica freedom*N That is" democracies ty(icay ha+e freereconomies than do a'thoritarian states* Th's" whie Mdemocracy isdesira%e for many reasons"N he notes in a cha(ter in the atest +o'me ofEconomic >reedom in the Word" created %y the >raser Dnstit'te"Mre(resentati+e go+ernments are 'nikey to contri%'te directy to

internationa (eace*N Ca(itaism is %y far the more im(ortant factor* The

shit rom statist mercantilism to hi3h!tech capitalism has transormed the economics ehind war. arketsgenerate economic o((ort'nities that make war ess desira%e* Territoriaaggrandizement no onger (ro+ides the %est (ath to riches* Hree!<owin3 capital

markets and other aspects o go%aization sim'taneo'sy draw nations togetherand raise the economic (rice of miitary con4ict* oreo+er" sanctions"which interfere with economic (ros(erity" (ro+ides a coerci+e ste( short of war to achie+e foreign (oicy ends* ositi=e economic trends are not eno13h to pre=ent war, 1tthen, neither is democrac). Ft lon3 has een o=io1s that democracies are willin3 to >3ht, 21st 1s1all) not eachother. Contends Partzke, ?lieral political s)stems, in and o themsel=es, ha=e no impact on whether states >3ht.B

Fn partic1lar " (oorer democracies (erform ike non9democracies . Oe eMplains/

M6emocracy does not ha+e a meas'ra%e im(act" whie nations with +eryow e+es of economic freedom are 1< times more (rone to con4ict thanthose with +ery high e+es*N Partzke considers other =ariales, incl1din3 alliance memerships,n1clear deterrence, and re3ional diferences. Altho13h the ca1ses o con<ict =ar), the relationship etweeneconomic liert) and peace remains. Ois concl1sion hasnEt 3one 1nchallen3ed. A1thor R.+. R1mmel, an a=idproponent o the democratic peace theor), challen3es PartzkeEs methodolo3) and worries that it ?ma) well leadintelli3ent and polic)!wise anal)sts and commentators to draw the wron3 concl1sions ao1t the importance odemocratization.B Partzke responds in detail, notin3 that he relied on the same data as most democratic peacetheorists. F it is tr1e that democratic states donEt 3o to war, then it also is tr1e that ?states with ad=anced ree

market economies ne=er 3o to war with each other, either.B The point is not that democrac) is =al1eless. >ree



(oitica systems nat'ray entai free eections and are more ikey to(rotect other forms of i%erty 9 ci+i and economic" for instance* Howe+er"democracy aone doesn.t yied (eace* To %eie+e is does is dangero'sThere.s no (anacea for creating a con4ict9free word* That doesn.t meanthat nothing can %e done* L't (romoting o(en internationa markets 9 thatis" s(reading ca(itaism 9 is the %est means to enco'rage (eace as we as

(ros(erity* Notes Partzke/ ?arare amon3 de=elopin3 nations will remain 1nafected ) the capitalist peaceas lon3 as the economies o man) de=elopin3 co1ntries remain ettered ) 3o=ernmental control.B Hreein3 those

economies is critical. Dt.s a (artic'ary im(ortant esson for the anti9ca(itaisteft* >or the most (art" the enemies of economic i%erty aso moststridenty deno'nce war" often in near9(aci-st terms* et they o((ose the+ery economic (oicies most ikey to enco'rage (eace* F market critics donEt realize

the o=io1s economic and philosophical =al1e o markets ! prosperit) and reedom 9 they sho'da((reciate the 'nintended (eace di+idend* Trade enco'rages (ros(erityand sta%iityV technoogica inno+ation red'ces the -nancia +a'e ofcon'estV go%aization creates economic interde(endence" increasing the

cost of war* Nothin3 is certain in lie, and people are moti=ated ) ar more than economics. L't it

t'rns o't that (eace is good %'siness* &nd ca(itaism is good for (eace*

Lreaking down neoi%eraism kis eadershi(6'm_ni and 5_+y # (Directors o Research at the Centre National de laRecherche Scienti>1e in aris Prard D1mnil and Domini1e ;=). ?The Crisis oNeolieralism and '.S. Oe3emon)B. http/00www.ei3ew1m.at0wordpress0wp!content01ploads0"##K5"5##7!$*.pd U8Leginning the historica in+estigation at the end o the $Kth and eary 2#thcent'ries in the United States" neoi%eraism a((ears as the third s1ch jsocial order.

& -rst -nancia hegemony (re+aied rom the e3innin3 o the cent1r), %'t it wasdesta%iized d'ring the ;reat 6e(ression and the New Deal, a (eriod of intensecass str'gge* The social order characteristic o the period that stretches rom the New Deal to the late$KL#s can e denoted as jsocial democratic or je)nesian, with si3ni>cant diferences amon3 co1ntries. Fts mainsocial eat1re was a jcompromise etween mana3erial and pop1lar classes, parallelin3 the containment o

capitalist interests. Oow neoi%eraism was esta%ished historicay lies e)ond the limits othe present st1d). Con=ersel), the description o the methods 1sed is rather strai3htorward. A new discipline wasimposed on workers, with the control o their p1rchasin3 power, new laor conditions, and the decline o welare.hile, ater orld ar FF, a lar3e percenta3e o pro>ts were conser=ed within non>nancial corporations to the end o

in=estment, in neolieralism, (ro-ts were a+ishy distri%'ted as di+idends and" '( to2###s" a arge fraction was (aid o't as interest. olicies aimin3 at price stailit) were

s1stit1ted or macro policies tendin3 to 3rowth and emplo)ment* >inancia reg'ations inheritedfrom the ;reat 6e(ression were grad'ay ifted. Gestrictions tointernationa trade were eiminated to the %ene-t of free trade, and thefree internationa mo%iity of ca(ita was im(osed to most co'ntries.

Neolieral 3loalization allowed or the deplo)ment o transnational corporations worldwide. The United States

emerged rom the two world wars as the eading internationa (ower. Whie otherim(eriaist co'ntries, as Hrance or the 'nited in3dom, were sti in+o+ed in thedefense of their traditiona em(ire" the United States a%andoned the >rst

attempts at the constit1tions o s1ch an em(ire at the end o the $Kth cent1r), to the %ene-t of the

ilsonian =ision o the inormal dominance of the most ad+anced among ca(itaistco'ntries, with the 3rad1al imposition o the dollar as international c1rrenc). The Preat Depression did notdestailize this he3emon), which was dramaticall) consolidated ) the =ictorio1s participation o the co1ntr) inorld ar FF. The 'nited States ne=er accepted the new r1les o the :retton oods a3reements limitin3international trade and the international mo=ements o capital, and the dollar was con>rmed as a s1stit1te or a

tr1l) international c1rrenc). Ater orld ar FF, the United States fo'ght for the deense, in ront o the

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So=iet 'nion, o the so!called jree world and or their own dominance wordwide. =er)where,

corr1ption, s1=ersion, and wars were 1sed to these ends. The U*S* economy came to dominatethe non>nancial and >nancial word economy* The transnationa cor(orations of theco'ntry were the most (owerf'" in (artic'ar -nancia instit'tions* Fn the$K#s, man) anal)sts o 3loal trends pointed, howe=er, to a decline o '.S. he3emon) and the ormation o a

jtriad (the 'nited States, 1rope, and +apan8. Jeoi%eraism in=erted these trends and

strengthened the (reeminence of the U*S* economy. As o the "###s, the U*S*economy was (resented to other ma$or ca(itaist co'ntries as a mode to%e em'ated" and the United States as a eader to %e foowed*

Historica data and de+eo(ments (ro+e neoi%eraism isn8t theroot ca'se of economic ine'aity or crises*Jor-ed 12 (hD Candidate in conomics at S@AS ! 'ni=ersit) o ;ondon Ton).&_The most detailed acco1nt a=ailaleE Z more praise or _The Hail1re o Capitalistrod1ctionE,& http/00pl1topress.wordpress.com0"#$"0#*0""0the!most!detailed!acco1nt!a=ailale!more!praise!or!the!ail1re!o!capitalist!prod1ction0U8ritin3 on the conomics o Fmperialism lo3, Ton) Nor>eld praises Andrew limanEsThe >ai're of Ca(itaist Prod'ction as ?proal) the most detailed, and

efecti=e, assessment o the economic statistics ehind what happened d1rin3 theeconomic crisisU that is a=ailaleB. Nor>eld writes/ The Hail1re o Capitalistrod1ction has two main theses. Hirstl), it ar31es that the ma2or post!war crisis othe $K#s did not res1lt in eno13h destr1ction o capital =al1es to pro=ide the asisor s1stained acc1m1lation thereater. This meant that pro>tailit) showed little, ian), si3n o reco=er) and economic 3rowth remained weak. This, in t1rn, set thesta3e or credit!dri=en, spec1lati=e 1les, not least the i33est and most recentone that has 1rst with s1ch intractale conse1ences. Secondl), and ollowin3rom this anal)sis, it arg'es that the common radica arg'ments a%o't thenat're of the crisis are myths. _Jeoi%era. economic (oicies did not c'trea wages and did not di+ert reso'rces into >nance and awa) rom prod1ction.& cose ook at the data for the US -nds no e+idence for these assertions*

Fnstead, the sow growth of incomes and in+estment is shown to %e aconse'ence of prolems with capital acc1m1lation, prolems that res1lted rominade'ate (ro-ta%iity` Ois case is well made, and is con=incin3. These arecritica (oints for an attack on the notion that mistaken 3o=ernment policies Zor a _neoi%era co1pE, as some writers s133est Z are the root ca'se of thecrisis. liman shows that the deterioration in (ro-ta%iity" in+estment"growth" etc" %egan in the late $K7#s or in the $K#s, (rior to the %eginningsof the neoi%era. era that is 1s1all) dated rom $KK!L$ with the Rea3an ('S8and Thatcher ('8 political re3imes.

Jeoi%eraism is key to hegemony* Dt makes the go%a order

sta%e and coo(erati+eEdeman 1# (ormer 'nder Secretar) o Deense or olic), was rincipal Dep1t)Assistant to the Wice resident or National Sec1rit) Afairs, ric S. ?'nderstandin3AmericaEs Contested rimac),B Center or Strate3ic and :1d3etar) AssessmentsU8O1ntin3ton has pointed o1t that 'S primac) at the end o the Cold ar wasimportant or two other reasons. The >rst was that no other (ower in theinternationa system co'd Mmake com(ara%e contri%'tions tointernationa order and sta%iity.B The second was that the percei=ed fai're of



the So+iet mode eft the United States ?as the ony ma$or (ower whosenationa identity is de-ned %y a set of 'ni+ersa (oitica and economic+a'es.B :eca1se these =al1es were not central to the national identit) o other(owers the) did not ha+e the same dri+e as the United States to (romotethem in internationa a=airs. This wiingness to (ro+ide certain go%a('%ic goods that increased the chances of internationa coo(eration was

also acknowled3ed ) Roert +er=is, who was otherwise skeptical ao1t the efort tomaintain 'S primac). Dt also faciitated acce(tance of US (rimacy and the'ni(oar system %y other co'ntries. Those oser=ations remain =alid toda)."GAltho13h the point remains contro=ersial it seems apparent that &merica, whileclearl) creatin3 some resentments with its policies, contin'es to %e seenA(artic'ary %y go+ernmentsB as relati=el) %enign in its interactions withother powers. &merica shares a 1ndamental +iew of the word rooted in theneoi%era orthodo,y of free markets" o(en societies" and democraticinstit'tions that emer3ed as a consens1s prescription or peace and prosperit)ater the collapse o comm1nism. This Mtransnationa i%eraismB incines national elites to see a %road con4'ence of interest with the United States andred1ces their tendenc) to tr) and co1nteralance American power. &s the

g'arantor of the internationa word economy and a pro=ider o sec1rit) andstailit) eca1se o its alliance s)stem, the United States (ro+ides go%a ('%icgoods which others cannot (ro+ide. Fn that sense the 1estion that Stanle)Oofman posed some )ears a3o o whether the 'nited States sho1ld p1rs1e primac)or world order seems to e a alse dichotom). As 9ichael 9andela1m haspers1asi=el) ar31ed, to the degree that there is word order" it e,ists%eca'se &merican (rimacy" com%ined with the tri'm(h of neoi%era ideas,has aowed the United States to (ro+ide go+ernmenta f'nctions to the restof the word, chie amon3 them ein3 the maintenance o the 3loal commons —air, sea, and space.

Jeoi%eraism so+es go%a (o+erty*Landow 1 (Senior ellow at the CAT@ Fnstit1te Do13 :andow. ?PloalizationSer=es the orldQs oorB, 9arch "%th, "##$ http/00www.cato.or30dail)s0#G!"%!#$.htmlU8Fndeed, the prolems o 3loalization m1st alwa)s e &compared to what4& Yes,actories pa) low wa3es in Third orld co1ntries. :1t workers in them ha=e neitherthe ed1cation nor the skills to e paid at Hirst orld le=els. Their aternati+e isnot a Western 'ni+ersity ed'cation or Siicon Oaey com('ter $o%" %'t ane+enower9(aying $o% with a oca -rm or 'nem(oyment* The choice iscear according to Edward ;raham of the Dnstit'te of DnternationaEconomics" in (oor co'ntries" &merican m'tinationas (ay foreign citizensan a+erage of *) times the (er ca(ita ;6P* I+era" the (rocess ofgo%aization has %een good for the (oor* D1rin3 the $KL#s, ad=ancedind1strialized co1ntries 3rew aster than de=elopin3 states. Fn the $KK#s, as3loalization accelerated, poor nations 3rew at *.7 percent ann1all), twice that otheir richer nei3hors. 6es(ite the i'sion of eft9wing acti+ists that moneyfas from the sky" (o+erty has %een the norma condition of h'mankindthro'gho't most of history* &s e+en ar, acknowedged" ca(itaism iswhat eiminated the o+erwheming (o+erty of the (re9 ind'stria word*

That remains the case toda). Reso1rce endowment, pop1lation le=el and densit),

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orei3n aid transers, past colonial stat1s none o these correlate with economicwealth. @nl) economic openness does.The latest =ol1me o the conomic Hreedomin the orld Report, p1lished ) the Cato Fnstit1te and think tanks in %# otherco1ntries, >nds that economic liert) stron3l) correlates with economicachie=ement.olicies that open economies stron3l) correlate with economic 3rowth.Ly ('ing co'ntries into the internationa market(ace" go%aization

enco'rages market reforms* With them comes increased weath*



Sec'rity



Threats Gea

I'r identi-cation of threats are acc'rate 99 recognition of

enmity is a (re9re'isite to acc'rate foreign (oicy (anning*6oran .11 F Professor at JU9ichael Scott Doran, a Wisitin3 roessor at the Roert H. a3ner Prad1ate School o 1lic Ser=ice at New York 'ni=ersit). Oe is a ormer Senior Director or the 9iddleast at the National Sec1rit) Co1ncil and a ormer '.S. Dep1t) Assistant Secretar)o Deense. ?Response/ Ara Sprin3, ersian inter/ ill Fran mer3e the innerHrom the Ara Re=olt4B. Horei3n Afairs. New York/ +1l0A13 "#$$. Wol. K#, Fss. G- p3.$L*

The a'thors are arg'ing against a straw man* Jo one, m)sel incl1ded,%eie+es that the resistance %oc ed %y Dran is @omni(otent,& and noone ar31es that the est wa) to co1nter it is ) &rel)in3 solel) on sec1rit)relationships with the re3ionQs elites.& The danger from Dran is asymmetric

Tehran has de+eo(ed a set of toos that, time and a3ain, ha+e (ro+edtheir e=ecti+eness against Washington %y denying it oca aies,increasin3 the economic cost o its operations, and killin3 its soldiers. Dt is(recisey this sy" semico+ert nat're that (ermits ?aye and Wehrey to(a'si%y caim that the resistance %oc is @more fract'red than iscommony 'nderstood*@ The) pro=ide no e=idence or this assessment. Fsi3ni>cant >ss1res do tr1l) eMist, then the 'nited States sho1ld hammer atthem hard, crackin3 apart the loc once and or all. Yet 1ltimatel), the elie inthe weakness o these onds is 21st that!an article o aith, not a reasonedanal)sis. The Franian! S)rian aMis took shape in the earl) $KL#s as ano1t3rowth o the Fran!Fra ar. Tehran and 6amasc's had a shared

hostiity toward Laghdad and toward the U*S*9ed regiona order more%roady* This enmity toward U*S* interests, especiall), sti hods tr'etoday/ Fran and S)ria ha=e maintained the lon3est contin1o1s re3ional alliancesince the states o the 9iddle ast 3ained their independence in the )earsater orld ar FF. Oezollah, or its part, is or3anicall) connected to FranQsRe=ol1tionar) P1ards. Are there tensions amon3 these actors4 'ndo1tedl),as there are in an) relationship. :1t is there an) serio1s reason to elie=e thatthe loc can e split apart witho1t re3ime chan3e in either Fran or S)ria4 No.a)e and ehre) e,hi%it what mi3ht e called the academic faacy" inwhich the necessary sim(icity of strategic conce(ts is mistaken forsim(e9mindedness Ahence the diagnosis of @a two9dimensiona

reading of the strategic ma(@B* The idde East is inherenty com(e,and (resents (oicymakers in Washington with a m'ti(icity of actorsthat o(erate from a arge +ariety of moti+es* Dt is im(ortant, howe=er,not to et a fascination with com(e,ity make one %ind to end'ringand conse'entia concentrations of (ower* The 'nited States m1st trainitsel to see a lar3e d1ne as somethin3 more ormidale than 21st endless3rains o sand. Ly dismissing the cohesion of the resistance %oc" and%y denying the se+erity of the threat that %oc (oses" the hands9o=



a((roach o a)e and ehre) ine+ita%y eads to the incoherence ofc'rrent U*S* (oicy* Syria is an instr'cti+e case. The 1prisin3 there hascreated the most remarkale o circ1mstances/ a prolem in the 9iddle ast inwhich the 'nited StatesQ strate3ic interests and its =al1es are in perectali3nment. =en more, street protests and the stateQs r1tal crackdown ha=e

3i=en ashin3ton potential le=era3e o=er a re3ime that has amo1sl) el1dedall pre=io1s eforts at coercion. Yet '.S. oIcials ha=e 3i=en the Assad re3ime apass. @n April , three weeks into the 1prisin3, Secretar) o State Oillar)Clinton pla)ed therapist to :ashar al!Assad, the miMed!1p adolescent. &hatwe ha=e tried to do with him,& she said, &is to 3i=e him an alternati=e =ision ohimsel.& @n 9a) 7, e=en ater the re3ime had shown its most r1tal ace,Clinton restated her elie that Damasc1s has &an opport1nit) still to rin3ao1t a reorm a3enda.& Amon3 his man) crimes, &ssad aided the m'rderof U*S* sodiers in Dra" is widey ass'med to ha+e %een %ehind thekiing of the 5e%anese eader Ra> Hariri" and today is sa'ghteringci+iians on his own streets with a cr1elt) 1n1s1al e=en ) the standards oAra a1tocracies. @ all the dictators in the re3ion, wh) is it this m1rderer whorecei=es the therape1tic approach4 The contrast with how ashin3ton treated3)ptQs Oosni 91arak is strikin3. Fn Her1ar), resident :arack @amaeMpressed a 1ni=ersal commitment to democratic =al1es and on that asisdemanded that 91arak step down immediatel). Thanks in part to the depth o '.S. in<1ence in 3)pt, @ama 3ot his wish/ 91arak, a '.S. all) o *# )ears,was 3i=en the 1mQs r1sh. :) contrast, Assad, an enem) o lon3 standin3 anda m1ch more r1tal dictator than 91arak, is ein3 treated with kid 3lo=es.Ao=e all, the United States m'st disting'ish ceary %etween friendand foe* When U*S* (oicymakers and e,(erts see ony com(e,ity anda+oid cear categorization" they end '( treating the United States8aies as enemies and its enemies" inc'ding Dran" as aies*



6efense

Jo im(act F threat constr'ction isn.t s'3cient to ca'se wars?a'fman

St1art + a1man, proessor o olitical Science and Fnternational Relations at the'ni=ersit) o Delaware. ?Narrati=es and S)mols in Wiolent 9oilization/ Thealestinian!Fsraeli CaseB. Security Studies $L/*, G## Z G*G

E+en when hostie narrati+es, 3ro1p fears" and o((ort'nity are stron3l)(resent" war occ'rs ony if these factors are harnessed* Ethnicnarrati+es and fears m'st com%ine to create signi-cant ethnic hostiityamong mass ('%ics* Poiticians m'st also seize the o((ort'nity tomani('ate that hostiity, e=okin3 hostile narrati=es and s)mols to 3ain orhold power ) riding a wa+e of cha'+inist mo%iization* S1ch moilizationis oten sp1rred ) prominent e=ents (or eMample, episodes o =iolence8 thatincrease eelin3s o hostilit) and make cha1=inist appeals seem timel). F theother 3ro1p also moilizes and i each sideQs elt sec1rit) needs threaten the

sec1rit) o the other side, the res't is a sec'rity diemma s(ira o risin3ear, hostilit), and m1t1al threat that res1lts in =iolence. & +irt'e of thissym%oist theory is that sym%oist ogic e,(ains why ethnic (eace ismore common than ethnonationaist war* E+en if hostie narrati+es" ears, and opport1nit) e,ist" se+ere +ioence 1s1all) can still %e a+oided if ethnic eites skill1ll) de-ne gro'( needs in moderate ways andcoa%orate across gro'( ines to pre=ent =iolence/ this isconsociationalism.$ ar is likel) onl) i hostile narrati=es, ears, andopport1nit) sp1r hostile attit1des, cha1=inist moilization, and a sec1rit)dilemma



;eneric Sec'rity ;ood

Threat constr'ction is good F it aows 's to antici(ate and(re+ent danger

Lerke Joseph Berke, Found. And Dir. Arbours Crisis Centre, 1998, Even Paranoids Have Enemies, p. !"

Fnternal and eMternal persec1tion come to3ether in the theoretical model o _the paranoid processE Z a set ode=elopmental and deensi=e mechanisms which ser=e to delineate the indi=id1alEs inner ps)chic world andhis eMperience o his emer3in3 sel, while, at the same time, contri1tin3 to the shapin3 o his sense o

si3ni>cant o2ects in his eMperiential world (9eissner $KL78. Ine of this mode.s corecom(onents" the (aranoid constr'ction. refers to a cogniti+ereorganization taking (ace in an attem(t to s'stain a comforta%esense of sef which" howe+er" may %e at the e,(ense of reaity testing .

This process, in its eMtreme orm, leads to the ormation o a persec1tor) ond, where a link is estalishedetween, on the one hand, the paranoid indi=id1al and, on the other, his persec1tors and the terri)in3orces that threaten to en31l him. This can ecome a ri3id constr1ction that reinorces the spiral oparanoia!persec1tionparanoia. 9eissner 1nderstands this mechanism as oferin3 a sense o cohesion and

d1railit) to a ra3ile sel, tho13h it oten in=ol=es a hi3h de3ree o patholo3) and =ictimization. Fnstances othis process ao1nd in indi=id1als, instit1tions, and 3ro1ps (incl1din3 whole nations8 where =iews o internaland eMternal sit1ations are (a81sed to ser=ice a rittle sense o identit). H1ll) reco3nizin3 this predicament,and the dan3ers in=ol=ed, re1ires thinkin3 ao1t and toleratin3 o1r own con<ict1al parts.

Parado,icay" a certain degree of (aranoia is desira%e as it is a %asisfor discrimination (Se3al $KKG8- when we et a new e,(erience to'ch 's"we acknowedge that it may %e %ad or good" which ena%es 's toantici(ate danger* Dn eaders of an organization" for instance" acertain degree of (aranoid (otentia can %e a 'sef' reso'rce" aso((osed to a dangero's nai+ety that wo'd (re+ent the eader from%ecoming aware of the sit'ations of acti+ation of aggression in thegro'(" or regression to (rimiti+e e+es of f'nctioning* Where the

eader can %e aware of" and a((rehend risk and danger" there is the(ossi%iity of (re(aration for the gro'( to face them and co(e withthem*

Scenario creation isn8t the same as threat constr'ction" it.scr'cia to see if (oicies are a good idea and red'ce the risk ofn'cear war* ar+is" Schoo of Economic \ Poitica Science" 2k!(Darr)l S.;. +ar=is ! School o conomics V olitical Science, '. o S)dne) ! "*&olitical Risk in Fnternational Relations/ mpirical Mperiences and Concept1alApproaches& School o conomics and olitical Science, orkin3 apers8

Scenario 3eneration has its ori3ins in the Cold ar when strate3ic anal)sts de=eloped the method or

helpin3 to think 1t1risticall) ao1t dri=in3 orces, chains o e=ents, or possile tri33er points that mi3ht leadto con<ict etween the arsaw act and NAT@, and how, i this occ1rred, the con<ict mi3ht proceed. Fn

essence, scenario generation was 'sed to (ot ogicay (a'si%e(ossi%iities and then to mode res(onses" strategic (ositioningstrategies" and to [ form'ate war9-ghting and contingency (ans. Coldar scenario generation was said to %e so s'ccessf' in modeingcirc'mstances of (ossi%e n'cear confrontation with de+astating andmass annihiation o'tcomes" that (oicy makers were mo+ed to



de+eo( the doctrine o 9AD (91t1all) Ass1red Destr1ction8 and +ario'sa+oidance strategies to a+ert the (ossi%iity of n'cearconfrontation*7G The essence o scenario 3eneration is de>ned ) PeofCo)le as ?a 21sti>ed and traceale se1ence o e=ents which mi3ht pla1sil)e ima3ined to occ1r in the 1t1re.B7% Fmportantl), scenarios are not

Mforecasts" (references or (redictions" %'t (a'si%e" chaengingdescri(tions of what might ha((en—in the form of a set of storiesa%o't aternati+e f't'res.B77 To this end, scenario anal)sis 1ilds on man) o the techni1es o the Delphi

method. :1t rather than 1se intermediaries to desi3n s1r=e) 1estionnaires, identi) eMperts and s)nthesize and interpret responses ,scenario generation aows e,(erts to de+eo( scenarios that ay %areass'm(tions and the rationae on which inter(retations are made"and to de+eo( (ossi%e sketches of antici(ated e+ents and their(ro%a%e time ines* The thinking %ehind this is to aow those who'tiize scenarios to make informed decisions and to e+a'ate thescenarios generated reati+e to the ass'm(tions on which they ha+e%een %ased* Apart rom the militar), some o the >rst instit1tions to emplo) scenario 3eneration were commercial or3anizations.

The Ro)al D1tch Shell Compan), or eMample, pioneered scenario anal)sis 1nder the a1spices o three prominent indi=id1als, eter Schwartz ,ees =an der Oei2den and eter Checkland.7 Oowe=er, despite some *# )ears o scenario 3eneration no ormal models eMist- indeed the notiono ormal techni1es is acti=el) resisted. Rather, scenario 3eneration stresses creati=e, ima3inar), challen3in3 disco1rses ao1t possileb 1t1res) lookin3 at the dominant dri=ers o societal chan3e and risk. These are normall) cate3orized 1nder the well known ST acron)m (political,economic, social and technolo3ical actors8 as the primar) dri=ers o chan3e and risk, andb primar) determinations o 1t1re worlds, processes

and e=ents.b Scenarios, howe=er, are not 'sed to write the f't're %'t too'tine (ossi%iities in reation to key decisions that need to %e takentoday and of the (ossi%e f't're im(ications of these decisions gi+ena constanty changing en+ironment* Dt is" in this sense" an attem(t toma( (ossi%e tra$ectories and o'tcomes and ogicay constr'ctimages of ca'se and e=ect so that the rami-cations of decisionmaking can %e 'nderstood in terms of its coatera im(ications andconse'ences. eter Schwartz encaps1lated the process with the pro=ocati=e title o his ook/ The

art o the ;on3 Wiew.7L The precise methods associated with scenario 3eneration are n1mero1s and the method emplo)ed

normall) contin3ent on the intended p1rpose. An3ela ilkinson and sther idinow, or eMample, s133est that scenario 3eneration alls into o1r

discrete cate3ories/ identi>ed o2ecti=es, known constit1ti=e 0 en=ironmental elements- ormall) mapped tra2ectories- scenarios 3enerated. ".Fnd1cti=e 9ethod/ De=elopment o a series o scenarios rom an assemla3e o a series o possile e=ents. *. Fncremental Approach/ De=elopsima3es and maps and descries an ?oIcial 1t1reB—or the one the or3anization thinks most likel) to emer3e, and then de=elops scenarios onthe asis o decisions and how the) will interact with the ?oIcial 1t1reB and their possile conse1ences and efects. G. Normati=e Approach/Starts with a set o characteristics o ass1med conditions, or a scenario ramed in a orward time horizon, and works ackwards to see what itre1ires (decisions, e=ents, processes, attri1tes8 to 3et there and i this is easile.7Kb eter Schwartz s133ested that 21st as no=els ha=ethemes which pro=ide contin1it), lo3ical connections, and th1s a central narrati=e enalin3 interpretation and assessment, scenarios too need atheme. :1t what4 Schwartz s133ested se=eral themes- challen3e and response, or eMample/ ?erhaps ;ondonEs position as a centre or >nancialser=ices is challen3ed ) Hrank1rt orb Tok)o- what are the dri=ers and 1ncertainties which will afect the =iailit) o a strate3ic response4B @ther

themes s133ested incl1ded winners and losers or in>nite possiilit). The theme is not im(ortant(er se" %'t a too (ro+iding a catayst or f'cr'm +ia which to stresstest the ass'm(tions" the ogicaity of o'tcomes" the im(ications ofstrategic decisions and the risks and o((ort'nities that might(resent* As with other third 3eneration approaches, scenario anal)sis is not apanacea, oferin3 oth insi3hts 1t also displa)in3 limitations. Dt em%races

atera creati+e thinking and chaenges organizations (commercial,non!commercial and state ased8 to think a%o't aternati+e f't'res ore+ents otherwise not antici(ated* To the eMtent that it is ale to do thiss1ccess1ll), it has o%+io's ad+antages or contin3enc) plannin3, risk identi>cation,

miti3ation plannin3 and risk a=oidance. Ft th1s helps =ario1s commercial, state and non!commercial actorsto na=i3ate 1ncertaint) and risk en=ironments rather than st1mle 1pon them witho1t d1e tho13ht tomana3ement and response. The normal ca=eats ao1t s1ch approaches appl), howe=er/ the 1alit) o theanal)sis is directl) proportionate to the 1alit) o the anal)sts- interpretati=e discretion i not mana3ed andappropriatel) tested and checked, can derail the constr1ction o 1alit) scenarios and their 1tilit)



6isease Sec'ritization ;ood

>ear and sec'ritization of disease is key to (re+ent thee,(osion of go%a e(idemics

D1ncan Watts (writer or Slate ma3azine8 April *#, 2##! ?@1trea/ Fn epidemics, is eara 3ood thin3B http/00www.slate.com0id0"#L"*#L0:1t this eminentl) reasonale reasonin3 ails to acco1nt or the e=idence that is not at hand/ & the f'ssmay we ha+e contained what co'd ha+e %een a tr'y (anic9worthye(idemic* Whie we ha+e yet to earn how %ad the e(idemic wi get" it isamost certain that witho't the O@Qs (re9em(ti+e go%a aert and theres'ting a+aanche of news stories a%o't the disease" the sit'ationco'd ha+e %een far worse than it is. Tho13h SARS is not 1ite as conta3io1s as the <1, it can stille spread thro13h relati=el) cas1al contact. F lots o sick people were takin3 lon3 plane <i3hts or wanderin3aro1nd on the streets or da)s, the risk o catchin3 it rom them mi3ht not e ne3li3ile. e know that a hand1lo indi=id1als can spread the disease rom one co1ntr) to "7 others in a matter o weeks (SARS was introd1ced toOon3 on3, which now has the hi3hest rate o inection, ) a sin3le person arri=in3 rom mainland China8. Oowm1ch worse wo1ld the epidemic e i tra=elers had not a=oided certain cities- i airports had not 1arantined

s)mptomatic passen3ers- and if sick (eo(e had not con-ned themse+es Aor %eencon-ned8 to their homes4 Almost certainl) m1ch worse, in which case we wo'd ha+e had the

h)steria and the economic damage, an)wa). And we8d aso ha+e an e(idemic on ascae that was reay something to (anic a%o't. All this sho1ld lead 1s to rethink

Roose=eltQs amo1s 1ip ao1t earin3 onl) ear itsel/ Dt a((ears that fear can %e a 'sef'too for the ('%ic good* Ine reason that HDO managed to s(read go%ay,

reakin3 o1t o its core pop1lation o 3a) men, prostit1tes, and intra=eno1s dr13 1sers, was d'e to agenera (erce(tion that it co'dn8t. AFDS is the prolem that it is toda) eca1se we werenQt

scared eno13h. (And perhaps we sti aren8t scared eno'gh* =en as the n1mer o OFW!positi=eindi=id1als soars past the *# million mark in Arica, health clinics contin1e to re1se needles—a practice that has

een reco3nized or o=er a decade as the sin3le most efecti=e wa) to spread the =ir1s.8 So, o'r rea

concern o'ght not to %e that we are too easiy scared" %'t that we are

too easiy reass'red . China, or eMample, mi3ht ha=e pre=ented the epidemic rom spreadin3 o1tsidethe r1ral area in which it >rst roke o1t i its p1lic health a1thorities had instilled a little more pre=enti=e ear inthe pop1lation. Articles s133estin3 that ear o the disease and not the disease itsel is the real prolem ma)

1se1ll) enale 1s to 3o ao1t o1r li=es in a more prod1cti=e ashion- 1t if they (ers'ade 's not totake the ne,t s'ch o't%reak of disease as serio'sy" they wi not %edoing 's a fa+or in the ong term. :1t, )o1 ma) wonder, how m1ch ear is health)4 And acedwith a m)riad o ima3inale threats, which ones sho1ld we e most scared o4 As terri)in3 as a K# percentmortalit) rate is, there are 3ood reasons that the O@ did not consider the Arican ola o1treak to e o thesame ma3nit1de as SARS in China. :) nat1re, ola is m1ch harder to transmit than SARS- it also deilitates its=ictims relati=el) 1ickl). As lon3 as local response is swit, the potential or ola to spread 3loall) is limited, nomatter how de=astatin3 an o1treak is. ola is literall) too deadl) or its own 3ood. SARS, ) contrast, had&3loal& written all o=er it rom the =er) >rst- it was the O@Qs reco3nition o this that prompted s1ch an earl)and a33ressi=e awareness campai3n. Fn $K$L, the Spanish <1 ca1sed more than "# million deaths worldwideand was the most deadl) epidemic o all time. Fn the 'nited States, the diseaseQs spread was drasticall)accelerated ) lar3e p1lic 3atherin3s celeratin3 Armistice Da)—which were held well ater the epidemic was in

1ll swin3. 9an) more Americans—some 7%,###—were killed ) in<1enza than ) the Preat ar itsel. &neary wa+e of fear a%o't this deady disease might ha+e a+erted m'ch ofthe catastro(he. This historical lesson has not een lost on the O@, and the rest o 1s wo1ld do well topa) attention, too. Fn a world that is 3rowin3 e=er more connected, at an e=er aster pace, the distant has ecomenear, and the 1rdens o others ha=e ecome o1r 1rdens. 'nder those circ1mstances, itQs @ to e a little araid

—in act, o1r fear may %e what sa+es 's*



&t >ais

The at fais F materia ha%its in4'ence state action more thandisco'rse F they can.t change to(9e+e state %eha+ior %eca'se

there.s a massi+e (sychoogica %ias towards maintaininge,isting (ractices F ony working within e,isting instit'tionaogics so+es +ioenceHo(f 1#(Ted, Associate roessor o olitical Science at The @hio State 'ni=ersit), ?The lo3ico hait in Fnternational RelationsB, 1ropean +o1rnal o Fnternational Relationsp1lished online $7 +1ne "#$#,http/00e2t.sa3ep1.com0content0earl)0"#$#0#70#L0$*%G#77$$#*7*%#"8

The ogics of ha%it and practice di=er 1ndamentall) rom the lo3ics oconse1ences and appropriateness %y stressing that the actions of actorsin the world are often not the (rod'ct of dei%erate cac'ation of any

sort, instr1mental or normati=e. The practice t1rn also has remindedconstr1cti=ist FR scholars that inters'%$ecti+e reaity is not $'st s(okeninto e,istence" %'t is acted into e,istence, too (Ne1mann, "##"8.

Constr'cti+ism has ong ignored what states and their a3ents do"

whie concentrating on what they say . 6isco'rse has %een red'ced to

te,ts" ignoring (ractices. Df interaction creates inters'%$ecti+e reaity,theorists o practice pointed o1t, then we sho'd %e (aying attention tothese actions, not 21st eMchan3es o words. F _practice theor) mo=es thele=el o sociolo3ical attention ?downB rom conscio1s ideas and =al1es to theph)sical and the hait1alE, then the practice t1rn has )et to 1ll) appreciatewhat it means to e hait1al (Swidler, "##$/ %8. The lo3ic o practice is more

re<ecti=e and a3ential than the lo3ic o hait and, conse1entl), eMpects armore chan3e in the world. The lo3ic o practice is dedicated to remo=in3 theh1man mind rom the theorization o practice, while the ogic of ha%itmakes the a'tomatic system in the %rain a critica factor in e,(aining'nre4ecti+e (erce(tions, attit1des, and (ractices. hile the lo3ic opractice treats 1nre<ecti=e practices as the taproot or all other lo3ics oaction, the ogic of ha%it ass'mes, at least at this earl) sta3e otheorization, that a ogics ha+e their (ace in e+eryday ife. The