Debiasing milad ghasemi amirhosein mosayebi

DBIASiNG!

ANCHOR

CONFIRMATION ANCHOR

AVAILIBILITY

HINDSIGHT AVAILIBILITY

CURSE-OF-KNOWLEDGE

OVER CONFIDENCE

CURSE-OF-KNOWLEDGE

BIAS

ES!!

!How to Get Rid of THEM?!

A brief introduction

OVERVIEW

OVERVIEW

Adoption and Diffusion

Debiasing Strategies

Nature of Biases

A brief introduction

PREVIEW

PRERVIEW

Descriptive Behavior

Normative Behavior

Debiasing

Nature of Biases

Debiasing Strategies

Adoption & Diffusion

Straregic-Based

Association-Based

Psychophysical-Based

Cognitive Strategy

Motivational Strategy

Technological Strategy

DEBIASING STRATEGIES

MOTIVATIONAL STRATEGIES

Nature of Biases

Debiasing Strategies

Adoption & Diffusion

MOTIVATIONAL STRATEGIES

Incentives

Accountability

IncentivesMOTIVATIONAL STRATEGIES

Increase Effort

Motivate people

LOST PILOT EFFECT

AccountabilityPre-emptive self-criticism because of:

Justifying decisionFavorable impressionAvoiding embarrassment

MOTIVATIONAL STRATEGIES

Possible ProblemsGiving people what THEY wantAudience with Known & Unknown preferences

MOTIVATIONAL STRATEGIES

COGNITIVE STRATEGIES

Nature of Biases

Debiasing Strategies

Adoption & Diffusion

COGNITIVE STRATEGIES

Training in biases

Training in representation

Training in rules

Consider the opposite

CONSIDER THE OPPOSITE

Anchoring

Overconfidence

Hindsight

TRAINING IN RULES

The rules can be thought in the form of mathematics

and logic

The rules can be applied in everyday life decisions

TRAINING IN REPRESENTATIONS

People reason better about “frequencies” than about “probabilities”

ProbabilitiesFrequencies

TRAINING IN BIASES

Is “Awareness” Enough?

TECHNOLOGICAL STRATEGIES

Nature of Biases

Debiasing Strategies

Adoption & Diffusion

Decision Models & AnalysisGroup Decision MakingDecision Support Systems (DSS)

TECHNOLOGICAL STRATEGIES

• Model– Pros and Cons (1772) – Linear Models

• Multiattribute Utility Analysis (MAU)– Elicit weights directly from a decision maker

• Decision Analysis

TECHNOLOGICAL STRATEGIES

Decision Models & Analysis

TECHNOLOGICAL STRATEGIES

Cons•Public Judgments•Social Influence•Social Costs of Rejection•Free Ride

Pros•Error-Checking system•Synergies•Statistical•Diverse Attitudes

Group Decision Making

"a computer based system to aid decision making“

TECHNOLOGICAL STRATEGIES

Decision Support Systems (DSS)

Computers Advantages:

• Process large amount of data• Implementing complex algorithms

DSS Advantages:

• Facilitating and speed up the progress of problems solving• Improves personal efficiency• Increases organizational control• Running consistency checks , Sensitivity analysis

ADOPTION AND DIFFUSIONA Pragmatic View Point

Nature of Biases

Debiasing Strategies

Adoption & Diffusion

The main question is:

ADOPTION AND DIFFUSION

How to encourage people to adopt better decision

strategies?

People resist being debiased

ADOPTION AND DIFFUSION

Me?!Biased?!

IMPOSSIBLE!!!

ADOPTION AND DIFFUSION

Promote Adoption

Compliance to behavioral norm

Internalization of beliefs

Vs.Internalization of beliefs

Compliance to behavioral norm

ADOPTION AND DIFFUSION

“Learn it, Teach it, Use it, Inspect it”How can it be fixed?

ADOPTION AND DIFFUSION

Simple

Domain-Specific

Social

Top-Down

Complex

Domain-General

Indivisual

Bottom-Uop

Vs.

Cognitive Repair

ADOPTION AND DIFFUSION

The Most Successful

ADOPTION AND DIFFUSION

Simple

Domain-Specific

Social

Top-Down

Complex

Domain-General

Individual

Bottom-Up