Dagnija blumberga presentation

Rīgas Tehniskā universitāte

Enerģētikas un elektrotehnikas fakultāte

Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūtswww.videszinatne.lv

Renewables vs Fossil

Fuels

Dr. Dagnija Blumberga profesor,

Director of Institute of Energy Systems and Environment

Dr. Andra Blumberga profesor,

Riga Technical University

Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts

2

Development of Energy Sector in Latvia

Share of renewable energy resources in 2020

EU 20%

Latvia 40%

Is it possible for Latvia ro reach target?


3

RES target for Latvia (info: Ministry of Economy

December,2009)


4

Kopējā PER piegāde

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2007 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

GW

h

elektroenerģija

bioetanols un biodīzeļdegviela

citi resursi (salmi,kūdra)

naftas produkti un degakmens eļļa

ogles (ietver koksu un nolietotās

riepas)

dabasgāze

biogāze

koksne

Primary Energy use. Alternative Scenario


5

Development of Latvian energy sector. Alternative 1.

Investments in

Natural gas power station

400 MW + 400 MW + ...

or

Coal power station

400 MW

or

Nuclear power station

???


6

Development of Latvian energy sector.Alternative 2

Investments in

Energy efficiency improvements

Development of renewable energy resources:

Biomass cogeneration

120 MWe + 5 cities * 50 MWe

Wind energy

1000 MWe offshore

500 MWe onshore

Replacement of natural gas installations in DH

and decentralised systems


7

Some economical calculation


8

Some Economical Calculations for RES today

Data from Latvenergo (published B&B 05/05/2010) about green energy additional costs

Market price

21 (28) Ls/MWh

Higher tariff than market price of electricity

70 Ls/MWh -21 (28) Ls/MWh = 49 (42) Ls/MWh

Paid green energy in 2009

150 000 MWh/year

Total exceeded payment for green energy

49 (42) Ls/MWh * 150 000 MWh/year = 7,35 (6,36) million Ls/year


9

Some Economical Calculations. Alternative 1

Costs for RTEC 2 -2 step (with no heat load for DH system in Riga). No data available from Latvenergo

Investments costs 35 million Ls/year

July 2012 fuel costs 55 Ls/MWhe + 85 Ls/MWh + x/MWhe = 140 Ls/MWhe + 20 Ls/MWh

Market price

21 (28) Ls/MWh

Higher tariff than market price of electricity

160 - 21 (28) = 139 (132) Ls/MWh


10

Comparison of electricity purchase tariffs

Large natural gas power stations has

uppermost support in Latvia ~ 160 Ls/MWh

Larger natural gas power stations 400 MWe has

higher support than smaler cogeneration

RES –E from biomass power station has less

support ~ 100 Ls/MWh than large natural gas

power station


11


Import increases: Natural gas use costs

RTEC 2 -1step 18 000 000 – 144 000 000 Ls/year

RTEC 2 -2step 22 000 000 – 176 000 000 Ls/year

Greenhouse gases increase

RTEC 2 -1step 1,6 million – 12,8 milion t CO2/year

RTEC 2 -2step 1,6 million – 12,8 milion t CO2/year

In 20 years Latvia will pay for import of natural gas

for 2 RTEC -2

6 - 8 bilion Ls


12

Heat energy tariffs

Apstiprinātie Latvijas pilsētu siltumtarifi 2008./2009. apkures sezonā, bez PVN

Sarkans - koģenerācija, zaļš - šķelda, pārējie - pamatā dabasgāze vai cits kurināmais

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

"L

ud

zas

Bio

-En

erģ

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"L

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Ap

saim

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tājs

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i -"

Bio

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ija"

Valk

a

"M

ad

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Sil

tum

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uld

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Sil

tum

tīkli

"

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ukum

a S

iltu

ms"

Alū

ksn

e -

"Sim

on

e"

Ven

tsp

ils

"L

imb

ažu S

iltu

ms"

"K

rāsl

avas

Nam

i"

"V

alm

iera

s Sil

tum

s"

"P

ļaviņ

u K

P

"K

om

fort

s", T

ukum

s

"V

an

gažu N

am

saim

nie

ks"

"A

izkra

ukle

s Sil

tum

s"

Ogre

s P

A "

Mālk

aln

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Bausk

as

silt

um

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īgas

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ese

man

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Sig

uld

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Rem

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kab

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Cēsi

s,

SIA

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B"

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augavp

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Sil

tum

tīkli

"

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us

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Rēzekn

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ort

um

Jelg

ava"

"Jū

rmala

s Sil

tum

s"

Ola

ine

"Sala

spil

s Sil

tum

s"

"L

iep

āja

s E

nerģ

ija"

Ls / M

Wh


13


Biomass use

New jobs 100 000 jobs/year

Local fuel 10 Ls/MWh (natural gas 35 Ls/MWh)

Development of local technologies - taxes 10 – 100

million Ls

Less tariffs for energy

Wind energy use

Solar Energy


14

What is going on with RES in Latvija

From system dynamic analysis it is easy to explain


15

STRESSALCOHOL

SPORTS

DEPENDANCEdelay

short term

solution

long term

solution

delay2


16

ENERGY

CONSUMPTION

NATURAL GAS RENEWABLE

ENERGY SOURCES

DEPENDANCEdelay

short term

solution

long term

solution

delay2


17

ENERGY

CONSUMPTION

NATURAL GAS RENEWABLE

ENERGY SOURCES

DEPENDANCEdelay

short term

solution

long term

solution

delay2

misinformation


18

laiks

Enerģijas patēriņš

Dabas gāze

Atjaunojamie energoresursi


19

EU target possible is to reach if

to change state energy policy

to increase energy efficiency

to increase share of

biomass in electricity and heat energy production

wind energy production

to support only efficient renewable energy

resources (no support for fossil fuel)

to start solar energy use

To renew small scale hydropower stations


20

Changes in legislation

Changes in state support for fossil electricity:

No payment for installed capacity for fossil fuel power

stations

To avoid low efficiency operation of power stations

including in tariffs

Changes in regulation of tariffs: bussiness

approach

Sustainable energy development - energy plans

of municipalities

.....


21

Influence of RES Policy (info: Ministry of Economy

December,2009)


22

More information

RTU Institute of Energy Systems and

Environment

Kronvalda bulvaris 1

LV-1010, Riga, Latvia

Tel.: +371 – 67089 - 908

Fax: +371 – 67089 - 908

E-Mail: [email protected]

Web: www.videszinatne.lv

Dagnija blumberga presentation

Documents

renewable

latvian energy

natural gas

vides aizsardzbas

energy systems

economy december

economical

market price