Crisis or Opportunity Spring Convention: National Council of Higher Education Loan Programs (NCHELP) Broomfield, Colorado May 15, 2012 Presentation by: David Longanecker President, Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) American Higher Education Today & Tomorrow (From A WICHE Perspective)
Crisis or Opportunity Spring Convention: National Council of Higher Education Loan Programs (NCHELP) Broomfield, Colorado May 15, 2012 Presentation by:
Mar 27, 2015
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Crisis or OpportunityCrisis or Opportunity
Spring Convention:National Council of Higher Education Loan Programs (NCHELP)
Broomfield, ColoradoMay 15, 2012 Presentation by:David LonganeckerPresident, Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE)
Spring Convention:National Council of Higher Education Loan Programs (NCHELP)
Broomfield, ColoradoMay 15, 2012 Presentation by:David LonganeckerPresident, Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE)
American Higher Education Today & Tomorrow
(From A WICHE Perspective)
WICHE Mission“. . . to expand educational access and excellence for all citizens of the West.”
WICHE Mission“. . . to expand educational access and excellence for all citizens of the West.”
Crisis or Opportunity: Common Lore:
Weiji/Crisis Danger Opportunity
True Linguistic Interpretation: Bad times, plan and simple
WICHE Mission“. . . to expand educational access and excellence for all citizens of the West.”
WICHE Mission“. . . to expand educational access and excellence for all citizens of the West.”
Do we face a Crisis, Bad times, plain & simple?
The Demographic Situation
Young AdultsNot A simple story
WICHE Projections of High School GradsWICHE Projections of High School Grads
Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity 1992-2022. 2008.
WICHE Projections of High School GradsWICHE Projections of High School Grads
Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity 1992-2022. 2008.
WICHE Mission“. . . to expand educational access and excellence for all citizens of the West.”
WICHE Mission“. . . to expand educational access and excellence for all citizens of the West.”
Do we face a Crisis, Bad times, plain & simple?
The Demographic Situation
Young AdultsNot A simple storyBut one common thread – growth is all
Hispanic
WICHE Projections of High School GradsWICHE Projections of High School Grads
Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity 1992-2022. 2008.
WICHE Projections of High School GradsWICHE Projections of High School Grads
Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity 1992-2022. 2008.
College-Going Rates – First-Time Freshmen Directly Out of High School as a Percent of Recent High School Graduates, 2006
College-Going Rates – First-Time Freshmen Directly Out of High School as a Percent of Recent High School Graduates, 2006
0
25
50
75
Mississip
pi
New
Yo
rk
No
rth D
akota
So
uth D
akota
Massach
usetts
New
Mexico
Co
nn
ecticut
New
Jersey
Min
neso
ta
Geo
rgia
Virg
inia
Kan
sas
Marylan
d
No
rth C
arolina
Louisian
a
Mich
igan
New
Ham
psh
ire
Main
e
Nebraska
Delaw
are
So
uth C
arolin
a
Ten
nessee
Ind
iana
Co
lorado
Alabam
a
Pen
nsylvania
Natio
n
Ken
tucky
Wisco
nsin
Iow
a
Illino
is
Flo
rida
Oh
io
Haw
aii
Oklah
om
a
Mo
ntan
a
Wyo
min
g
West V
irgin
ia
Misso
uri
Arkan
sas
Califo
rnia
Texas
Verm
on
t
Rh
od
e Island
Nevad
a
Wash
ington
Oreg
on
Utah
Alaska
Idah
o
Arizo
na
Source: Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Opportunity Via NCHEMS
WICHE Mission“. . . to expand educational access and excellence for all citizens of the West.”
WICHE Mission“. . . to expand educational access and excellence for all citizens of the West.”
Do we face a Crisis, Bad times, plain & simple?
The Demographic Situation Young Adults
Not A simple storyBut one common thread – growth is all
HispanicDilemma – Trends are divisive
Some want sustaining support/others want support for growth
Race still matters
WICHE Mission“. . . to expand educational access and excellence for all citizens of the West.”
WICHE Mission“. . . to expand educational access and excellence for all citizens of the West.”
Do we face a Crisis, Bad times, plain & simple?
The Demographic Situation
Older Adults 40 million with some college, no degree New starts – not much prospect for success Dilemma
Limited resources Americans can’t stand triage
WICHE Mission“. . . to expand educational access and excellence for all citizens of the West.”
WICHE Mission“. . . to expand educational access and excellence for all citizens of the West.”
Do we face a Crisis, Bad times, plain & simple?
The Economic Situation
Where we stand in global competition
Differences in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) Between Younger and Older Adults - U.S. and OECD Countries, 2005
Differences in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) Between Younger and Older Adults - U.S. and OECD Countries, 2005
Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Education at a Glance 2007
0
20
40
60
Korea
Canada
JapanIrelandN
orway
New
Zealand
United K
ingdomA
ustraliaD
enmark
Luxembourg
France
IsraelB
elgiumS
weden
United S
tatesN
etherlandsS
witzerland
Finland
Spain
Estonia
IcelandP
olandC
hileS
loveniaG
reeceG
ermany
Hungary
Portugal
Austria
Slovak R
epublicC
zech Republic
Mexico
ItalyT
urkey
25 to 34
45 to 54
Differences in College Attainment (Associate & Higher) Between Younger & Older Adults—U.S. & OECD Countries, 2009
Differences in College Attainment (Associate & Higher) Between Younger & Older Adults—U.S. & OECD Countries, 2009
Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Education at a Glance 2011
Differences in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) Between Younger and Older Adults - U.S., 2005
Differences in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) Between Younger and Older Adults - U.S., 2005
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS
WICHE Mission“. . . to expand educational access and excellence for all citizens of the West.”
WICHE Mission“. . . to expand educational access and excellence for all citizens of the West.”
Do we face a Crisis, Bad times, plain & simple?
The Economic Situation
Where we stand in global competition Is this really Important?
Relationship Between Educational Attainment, Personal Income, and Economic Strength
Relationship Between Educational Attainment, Personal Income, and Economic Strength
Source: NCHEMS
AL
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE IL
IN
IA
KY
LA
MDMA
MS
NJ
NY
NDOK
OR
SC
SD
UT
VA
WAMN
NH
TN TX
WV
WI
WY
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Pers
onal In
com
e P
er
Capit
a,
20
00
Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher
MT
HI
AK
GA
KS
ME NE
NV
NC
OH PAVT
ID
MI
MO
NM
RIFL US
Low Income, High Educational AttainmentLow Income, Low Educational Attainment
High Income, High Educational AttainmentHigh Income, Low Educational Attainment
State New Economy Index (2002)
Top Tier
Middle Tier
Low Tier
WICHE Mission“. . . to expand educational access and excellence for all citizens of the West.”
WICHE Mission“. . . to expand educational access and excellence for all citizens of the West.”
Do we face a Crisis, Bad times, plain & simple?
The Economic SituationWhere we stand in global competition Is this really Important? YESThe Public Policy Response
The Completion Agenda President Obama – First Again: Lumina: The Big Goal:
And Rhetoric won’t be enough
WICHE Mission“. . . to expand educational access and excellence for all citizens of the West.”
WICHE Mission“. . . to expand educational access and excellence for all citizens of the West.”
Do we face a Crisis, Bad times, plain & simple?
The Economic Situation Past Tricks Won’t Get Us There
Immigration Migration New Enemy – emigration
Educational Attainment Is The Key The Dilemma – It’s Quite a Leap
Closing the Gap: Annual Percent Increase in Credential Production Needed to get to 60% by 2025
Closing the Gap: Annual Percent Increase in Credential Production Needed to get to 60% by 2025
Nor
th D
akot
a
WICHE Mission“. . . to expand educational access and excellence for all citizens of the West.”
WICHE Mission“. . . to expand educational access and excellence for all citizens of the West.”
Do we face a Crisis, Bad times, plain & simple?
The Economic Situation Past Tricks Won’t Get Us There
Immigration Migration New Enemy – emigration
Educational Attainment Is The Key The Dilemma – It’s Quite a Leap
The Imperative – The Trifecta More of everything/Particularly More Hispanics/ Many
More Adults
WICHE Mission“. . . to expand educational access and excellence for all citizens of the West.”
WICHE Mission“. . . to expand educational access and excellence for all citizens of the West.”
Do we face a Crisis, Bad times, plain & simple?
The Finance Situation
Higher Education has been wacked hard, and not evenly
Educational Appropriations per FTEPercent Change by State, Fiscal 2006-2011(SHEEO SHEF 2011)
Educational Appropriations per FTEPercent Change by State, Fiscal 2006-2011(SHEEO SHEF 2011)
Total Educational Revenue per FTEPercent Change by State, Fiscal 2006-2011(SHEEO SHEF 2011)
Total Educational Revenue per FTEPercent Change by State, Fiscal 2006-2011(SHEEO SHEF 2011)
Public FTE Enrollment and Educational Appropriations per FTE, U.S., Fiscal 1986-2011(SHEEO SHEF 2011)
Public FTE Enrollment and Educational Appropriations per FTE, U.S., Fiscal 1986-2011(SHEEO SHEF 2011)
WICHE Mission“. . . to expand educational access and excellence for all citizens of the West.”
WICHE Mission“. . . to expand educational access and excellence for all citizens of the West.”
Do we face a Crisis, Bad times, plain & simple?
The Finance Situation
Higher Education has been wacked hard, and not evenly Result: Unbelievable tuition increases
WICHE Mission“. . . to expand educational access and excellence for all citizens of the West.”
WICHE Mission“. . . to expand educational access and excellence for all citizens of the West.”
Do we face a Crisis, Bad times, plain & simple?
The Finance Situation
Higher Education has been wacked hard, and not evenly Result: Unbelievable tuition increases The Dilemma for Financial Aid Professionals
State Grants Can’t Keep Up Pell Increases Are Not Sustainable
WICHE Mission“. . . to expand educational access and excellence for all citizens of the West.”
WICHE Mission“. . . to expand educational access and excellence for all citizens of the West.”
Or, Do we face Zhwanji – an Opportunity?“Don’t Let A Crisis Go To Waste”
WICHE’s Mission: . . . Through interstate cooperation, innovation, resource sharing, and sound public policy . . .
Programming Examples: Student Exchange State Authorization Reciprocity Agreement
Networking Examples CACG Network and Collaborative Adult College Completion Network WICHE Cooperative for Educational Technologies (WCET)
Policy Analysis & Research Knocking On The College Door– Projections of High School Graduates Multi-state Data Exchange
WICHE Mission“. . . to expand educational access and excellence for all citizens of the West.”
WICHE Mission“. . . to expand educational access and excellence for all citizens of the West.”
Or, Do we face Zhwanji – an Opportunity?“Don’t Let A Crisis Go To Waste”
Our MantraWe Can Do This
We have better information from which to manage than ever before State Unit Record Data Bases—blending education & workforce The National Student Clearinghouse Measurement of Student Learning Outcomes Predictive Analytics (data mining)
And we have a new mentality to use this information – evidence based practice and decision-making
As a result,
WICHE Mission“. . . to expand educational access and excellence for all citizens of the West.”
WICHE Mission“. . . to expand educational access and excellence for all citizens of the West.”
Or, Do we face Zhwanji – an Opportunity?“Don’t Let A Crisis Go To Waste”
We can do this better Students can learn more
Technology enhanced (hybrid) learning Reinvented Remediation Reducing meandering– recognizing choice as the enemy for
many More students can learn
Use technology to expand reach Capture the spirit of “access to success” Use smart incentives in financing structures
Incentives for institutions Incentives for students -- young and not so young
WICHE Mission“. . . to expand educational access and excellence for all citizens of the West.”
WICHE Mission“. . . to expand educational access and excellence for all citizens of the West.”
Or, Do we face Zhwanji – an Opportunity?“Don’t Let A Crisis Go To Waste”
We can do this cheaper Technology can reduce costs Disruptive innovation (and innovators) are
reducing costs The magic of marginal costs can save
resources Improving based on evidence
WICHE Mission“. . . to expand educational access and excellence for all citizens of the West.”
WICHE Mission“. . . to expand educational access and excellence for all citizens of the West.”
Or, Do we face Zhwanji – an Opportunity?“Don’t Let A Crisis Go To Waste”
We can do this faster Recognize time as the enemy (Complete
College America’s message) Reduce clutter in the curriculum Reduce degree creep Recognize the value of high value certificates
and applied associate degrees Believe our own research
WICHE Mission“. . . to expand educational access and excellence for all citizens of the West.”
WICHE Mission“. . . to expand educational access and excellence for all citizens of the West.”
So, Why Should We Do This?
from WICHE’s perspective: It’s not for the sake of higher education Higher education is just the means to an end The end goal: . . . To strengthen higher education’s
contributions to the social, economic, and civic life of the West.
Enough, already!
Or, Do we face Zhwanji – an Opportunity?“Don’t Let A Crisis Go To Waste”
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