Cracking the code…Insights for mobile from behavioral sciences - Pondering Panda

November 5 & 6, 2014

DoubleTree by Hilton Hotel Cape Town

Upper Eastside, South Africa

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SHIRLEY EADIE - PONDERING PANDA

THE CODECRACKING

M

!Fast!

Intuitive!Instinctive!Automatic!

Unconscious

Slow!Analytical!Controlled!Deliberate!Effortful

System 1 System 2

+ = R110

2% of total!body weight

20% of total!energy consumption

Cognitive Biases

Context Biases Time Biases Social Biases

TIMECONTEXT SOCIAL

{Framing} !

The context within which something is presented or ‘framed’, alters how it is perceived.

CONTEXT

{Anchoring} !

The impact of numbers, sometimes random numbers, on decision making.

CONTEXT

75%

80%

{Salience} !

Information that stands out, is novel, or seems relevant is more likely to affect our thoughts & actions.

CONTEXT

n = 1 369 | Ages: 15 - 34 | Weighted to national proportions across age, gender and race | Split cell methodology!Survey ran in November 2013

Order Bias

When did you last have fast food?Q

Today (top of response list)

Today (bottom of response list)

TODAY

n = 1 369 | Ages: 15 - 34 | Weighted to national proportions across age, gender and race | Split cell methodology!Survey ran in November 2013

Order Bias

When did you last have fast food?Q

TODAY

Today (top of response list)

Today (bottom of response list)

Increased order bias on small screens • Rotations vital • Eliminate scrolling • Reduce character set • Reduce response fields

!Split cell methodology

• Capitalise on large samples • One concept - One cell

M

Mobile application

{Present Bias} !

The tendency to give more weight to present events than future ones.

TIME

Impact of Time of Day

67%

48%

67%

48%

n = 4 793 | Ages: 13 - 34 | Weighted to national proportions across age, gender and race | Split cell methodology!Survey ran in August 2014

Lunch (11:30 -14:00)

Rest of the day

How likely would you be to buy a 330ml Coke, a tomato-and-cheese sandwich and a small packet of Simba chips, for R25.00?

Q

Very Likely (During Lunch) Very Likely (Rest of Day)

Impact of Time of Week

n = 5 661 | Ages: 15 - 34 | Weighted to national proportions across age, gender and race | Weekly tracker | Conducted in March 2014 across 5 weeks | Interviews (Sunday & Monday) conducted close to reported behavior (past weekend)

Sunday Evening

Monday Morning

Monday Afternoon/ Evening

%

How was the weekend for you?Q

Those who answered ‘GOOD’

46%51%

54%

{Diversification Bias} !

The tendency to overestimate the extent to which we will make different decisions in future.

TIME

Diversification Bias

0

20

40

60

80

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3

Sequential

Advance

Adapted from Read, Loewenstein and and Kalyanaraman (1999)

Mobile device - ideal for in-the-moment or close-to-the-moment research

Essential to date & time stamp interviews

Include temporal analysis where relevant

Make use of Predictive Analytics to model future behaviour (e.g.: CHAID)

Simulate future scenarios using newly available analytical techniques (e.g.: BrandStretcher)

M

Mobile application

{Social Norms} !

The extent to which other people in our environment play a role in shaping our behavior.

SOCIAL

Who’s counting?

Those told that the average consumption of alcohol was 5 units, were more than twice as likely

to admit to drinking 5 units themselves

{Me Error} !

The tendency to consistently overestimate our ability or accurately judge our behavior.

SOCIAL

How’s YOUR driving?

n = 445 | Ages: 18 - 34 | Vehicle drivers | Weighted to national proportions across age, gender and race!Survey ran in September 2014

Thinking about your driving skills compared to other drivers in South Africa, which of the following best describes you? My driving is…

Q

38% rate themselves in the top 10%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Top 5% I am one of

the best drivers

Top 10% I am a really

good driver

but not great

%

• Me to We research • Reduces ‘Me Error’ • Allows for smaller sample set

!!

• Mobile interviewing ideal for - • Researching socially sensitive topics • Reducing interviewer bias • Reducing group think!

!

M

Mobile application

http://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/consumed/201203/do-you-diversify

http://www.exactitudes.com/index.php?/series/detail/3

http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555

About 38% of the adult population in sub-Saharan Africa lack the basic literacy and numeracy skills needed in everyday life.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DRCMdnCr6h0

http://www.amazon.com/Predictably-Irrational-Revised-Expanded-Decisions/dp/0061353248/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1414742653&sr=1-1&keywords=predictably+irrational

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/10/081006130542.htm

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/14/business/for-penney-a-tough-lesson-in-shopper-psychology.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

http://www.amazon.com/Everything-Obvious-Common-Sense-Fails/dp/0307951790/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1414742686&sr=1-1&keywords=everything+is+obvious+once+you+know+the+answer

http://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/consumed/201203/do-you-diversify

References

http://blog.ponderingpanda.com/2014/07/risk-savvy/http://www.understandingprejudice.org/apa/english/page7.htm

http://www.behavioraleconomics.com/

http://www.units.miamioh.edu/psybersite/fans/inoutbias.shtml

http://allpsych.com/psychology101/groups.html

http://www.simplypsychology.org/conformity.html

http://education-portal.com/academy/lesson/group-behavior.html#lesson

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fup-jRZKd1M

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FnT2FcuZaYI

http://www.thepowerofintroverts.com/about-the-book/

http://www.amazon.com/The-Thinking-Clearly-Rolf-Dobelli/dp/0062219693

http://www.amazon.com/The-Domesticated-Brain-Pelican-Introduction/dp/0141974869

http://www.amazon.com/Risk-Savvy-Make-Good-Decisions/dp/0670025658

References

#MRMW

Title Sponsor Silver Sponsors Bag Sponsor

Association & Media Partners

November 5 & 6, 2014

DoubleTree by Hilton Hotel Cape Town

Upper Eastside, South Africa

#MRMW

Organized by