CPPR Quarterly Lecture by Dr. Sandeep Shastri, on emerging trends in Elections

JAIN UNIVERSITY

April 7, 2023 1

Emerging Electoral Landscape :

Analysis of Indian Democracy

6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)

SANDEEP SHASTRIPro Vice Chancellor, Jain University

National Coordinator, Lokniti Network

JAIN UNIVERSITY

2

Approaching the Theme

Using the `Window` Offered by 2014

Elections

Will 2014 confirm existing trends or

…

…is 2014 in any way

different?

April 7, 2023 6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)

JAIN UNIVERSITY

April 7, 2023 3

Nature and Structure of the Contest

• States at the Centre• An attempt to make it a

Plebiscitary style race?

6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)

JAIN UNIVERSITY

April 7, 2023 4

Is there a generation gap?

•What does AAP represent?

•Citizen response?

6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)

JAIN UNIVERSITY

5

Three Visible Trends

Poor Rating of the UPA and its Implications

Consolidation by the NDA in its Strongholds

An emerging non-Congress, non-BJP alliance – Third Front , Federal Front

April 7, 2023 6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)

JAIN UNIVERSITY

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Explaining the Trends • Vote Share Shift

• Explaining this shift

• Implications

April 7, 2023

UPA

NDA

Others

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12

-8

11

-3

Series1

6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)

JAIN UNIVERSITY

7April 7, 2023 6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)

JAIN UNIVERSITY

8April 7, 2023

UPA

Manmohan Singh

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Intensity of Dissatisfaction

JAIN UNIVERSITY

April 7, 2023 9

Overall North Central West East South

26

22

2730 30

23

52

59

53 5250

46

Should UPA get another chance Yes No

JAIN UNIVERSITY

10April 7, 2023

45%

30%

6%

19%

Image of UPAVery Corrupt Somewhat Corrupt Not at all corrupt Don’t Know

6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)

JAIN UNIVERSITY

April 7, 2023 11

43%

29%

23%5%

Why dissatisfied

Lack of Development/ poor governance Price Rise CorruptionOther

6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)

JAIN UNIVERSITY

April 7, 2023 12

Metro India Town and Cities

Villages Upper Class Middle Class Lower Class Poor

-29

-22

-12

-19

-15

-12

-16

Satisfaction/ Dissatisfaction

6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)

JAIN UNIVERSITY

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Support for NDA• Positive image of the State

Governments

• Impact among young voters– 18-25 : 15% – 26-35 : 8 %– 36-45 : 9%– 46-55 :4%– Above 56 -2%

April 7, 2023 6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)

JAIN UNIVERSITY

April 7, 2023 14

The `Modi` factor

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

27

14 1310

1310

8

70

Modi Rahul

Party

Local candidate

PM Candidate

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

45

27

16

43

23

28

BJP supporters All

6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)

JAIN UNIVERSITY

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Third Front/ Federal Front

Keeping their

Options Open • The Numbers

Game • Pre and

Post Election Allies

The Internal

Contradictions

• Divided we Stand …

United we Fall

• State Level Contests

AAP as a factor • Its Strategy • Its Appeal

April 7, 2023 6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)

JAIN UNIVERSITY

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To Summarize Has the NDA

peaked too

early ?

Nature of Alliances (open

or tacit) that are emerging

Candidate

Choice

How close is the front

runner to 272

April 7, 2023 6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)

JAIN UNIVERSITY

April 7, 2023 17

Post Poll Scenario • A NDA led government

– X factors – Expectations

• A Non Congress, Non BJP coalition

– Implications – Stability

6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)

JAIN UNIVERSITY

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Questions Comments

April 7, 2023 6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)