Conference on Climate Change and Energy Cooperation in South Asia Organized by: SAARC Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SAARC CCI) In Collaboration with:

Conference on

Climate Change and Energy Cooperation in South Asia

 Organized by: SAARC Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SAARC CCI)In Collaboration with: Bhutan Chamber of Commerce & Industry (BCCI)

Supported by: Friedrich-Naumann-Stiftung für die Freiheit

Hotel Zhiwaling, Paro, Bhutan22-23 April, 2012

Energy Development Schemes/ Energy Programs

Mollah Amzad HossainEditor, Energy & Power

[email protected]

Bangladesh at a Glance Bangladesh at a Glance Official Name : People’s Republic of

Bangladesh

Political System : Parliamentary Democracy

Population : 148 Million

Area : 147,570 km

Time Zone : GMT+6 Hours

GDP Total : USD 112 b (FY 2011)

GDP Per Capita : USD 755 (FY 2011)

Total Exports : USD 23 Billion (FY 2011)

Total Import : USD 34 Billion (FY 2011)

Forex Reserve : USD 12 Billion (FY 2011)

Currency : BDT (1 BDT = 1.22 US Cents)

Major Citites : Dhaka, Chittagong, Khulna, Sylhet, Rajshahi, Barisal.

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3

Primary Fuel Supply Scenario

Gas: No significant gas discovery in recent years; Depleting gas reserve restricts gas-based power generation

Coal: Near term option; Indigenous or Imported; Base Load; Oil: Volatile market; High price; For peaking plant LNG: Necessary to ensure reliable gas supply Nuclear: No pollution; Expected to be future Base-Load

option, Safe and reliable technology;

Energy Development Schemes/Energy Programs Bangladesh Energy Scenario

Electricity Growth : 14 % (July-Jan FY-2012) (Av. 7 % since 1990)

Generation Capacity: 8005 MW (March, 2012) Total Consumers : 13 Million Transmission Lines : 8,600 km Distribution Lines : 2,78,000 km Per Capita Generation : 265 kWh (incl. Captive) Access to Electricity : 53 %

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Public Sector

SL. Generation Capacity (MW)

1. BPDB 3483

2. APSCL 662

3. EGCB 210

Subtotal 4,355 (54 %)

Private Sector1. IPPs 1272

2. SIPPs (BPDB) 99

3. SIPPs (REB) 226

4. 15 YR. Rental 168

5. 3/5 YR. Rental 554

6. Quick Rental 1331

Subtotal 3,650 (46 %)

Total 8,005

Present Power Generation Capacity (March, 2012)

Considering 20% Maintenance and Forced Outage, Available Generation Capacity is about 6400 MW without fuel constraint

Energy Development Schemes/Energy Programs Bangladesh Energy Scenario

• Total 24 Hours Demand Around 200 Mkwh• Installed Generation Capacity 192 Mkwh• Total Farm Generation Capacity Around 154 Mkwh• From Natural Gas Capacity Around 108 Mkwh• From Imported Fuel Capacity Around 55 Mkwh• From Own Coal Capacity Around 8 Mkwh• From Hydro Capacity Around 8 Mkwh• Highest Generation Around 110 Mkwh• Average Generation Around 90 Mkwh• Short Supply of Energy Around 90 Mkwh (in Summer)

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Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Max.Demand with DSM (In April)

6765 7518 8349 9268 10283 11405

Gen addition - Public Sector

800 632 1467 1660 1410 750

Gen. addition - Private Sector

963 1354 1372 1637 772 1600

Regional Power Imp 500

Capacity Retired 40 344 950 462 632

Gen. Capacity (End of Dec) 7613 9559 12554 14901 16621 18339

NET 7308 9177 12052 14305 15956 17605Dependable Capacity (End of Dec)

5628 7158 9521 11444 12765 14084

Max Surplus/Shortfall (In Summer)

-1137 -360 1172 2176 2482 2679

-17% -5% 14% 23% 24% 23%

Estimated Demand Supply Gap up to 2016 (Calendar Year)January, 2012

CY

Gas + LNG HydroCoal

(Dom + Imp)Power Imp + Renewable

OilTotal (MW)

Capacity (MW)

%Capacity

(MW)%

Capacity (MW)

%Capacity

(MW)%

Capacity (MW)

%

2011 5107 67% 220 3% 200 3% 0 0% 2086 27 7,600

2012 5707 60% 220 2% 200 2% 0 0% 3432 36 9,600

2013 7283 58% 220 2% 200 2% 512 4% 4339 35 12,000

2014 9278 62% 220 1% 766 5% 630 4% 4027 27 15,000

2015 10206 61% 220 1% 1538 9% 630 4% 4027 24 16,000

2016 10956 60% 220 1% 3138 17% 630 3% 3395 19 18,000

2017 11557 57% 220 1% 4938 24% 630 3% 3095 15 20,000

Fuel Mix up to 2017

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Generation Capacity by Fuel Type

COMILLA (N)

FENCHUGANJ

SILCHARFENCHUGANJ

BHERAMARA

BAHARAMPUR

BAHARAMPURBHERAMARA

PURNIABARAPUKURIA

THAKURGAON

500MW [2013-]  500MW [2018-]  

1000MW

250MW

750MW

Regional Power Exchange: Possibilities

PALLATANACOMILLA (N)

MYANMARCHITTAGONG

500 MW

ALIDUARPURBOGURA

1000MW

Chittagong 3x660MWChittagong 3x660MW

Import Coal

Road Map for Coal Power Development (as of 2030)

　　　　 : Potential Coal PS: Potential Coal PS　　　　 : Potential Coal : Potential Coal CenterCenter　　　　 : Ocean-going vessel: Ocean-going vessel　　　　 : Transship: Transship

Khulna 2x660MW Khulna 2x660MW (Dom Future)(Dom Future)

Domestic Coal

K-D-P 6x1000 MW USCK-D-P 6x1000 MW USCK-D-P 8x 600 MW USCK-D-P 8x 600 MW USC

MatarbariMatarbari

Coal Center

Zajira/New Meg 3x600MWZajira/New Meg 3x600MW

ChittagongChittagong

Sonadia IslandSonadia Island

Railway

Total 19,200MW Total 19,200MW (New)(New)

Moheshkhali/Matarbari 4x600MWMoheshkhali/Matarbari 4x600MW

Meghnaghat 2x600MWMeghnaghat 2x600MW

RE, EE & Conservation

• Plan to Add 5% Power from RE by 2015 and 10% by 2021• World Successful Model in Solar Home System (SHS). Already

Installed 1.5 Million SHS Total Capacity 64 MWp. Plan to Installed more 1 million by next year.

• Solar Irrigation: Installed 30 project and Plan to Installed 100 more

• Grid Connected Solar Power Plant abound 100MW• Stan alone Roof Top Solar• Wind: 2MW Installed, More 200MW Planed. Work going on

for Wind Mapping.• Biogas and Improved Cooking Stove (IVS).

RE, EE & Conservation

• GOB Enact National Renewable Policy• On Way to Form Sustainable and Renewable

Energy Authority• Distributed 20 Million CFL• Draft Energy Conservation Act ready for Pass• Energy Efficient Buildings Act Way to Final• Energy Auditing and Product Leveling Way to

Start.

Investment by 2030 (Gen & Tran)Fuel Type Capacity (MW) Investment (Billion US$)

Domestic Coal 9850 13.92

Imported Coal 7800 12.47

Natural Gas 8956 7.63

Furnace Oil 5217 5.89

Diesel 500 0.56

Hydro 100 0.14

RE 111 0.36

Cross Border Power 3500 ------

Sub Total 36034 40.97

Transmission ------- 7.53

Total -------- 48.5

Investment

• Apart from That GOB need $17 Billion more for Built LNG Terminal and Coal Import Infrastructure.

• Power Purchase from IPP, SIPP, Rental $ 1 Billion/Annually

• Annual Cost for Gas, Coal, LNG and Fuel Oil Cost not Included in Earlier Slide (Expert Opinion -- Gas $550M, Coal $3B, LNG $2.5B and Fuel Oil $3B/ Annually)

• Local Finance Not Enough Need FDI

Regional Energy Scenario

• Bangladesh 8000 MW Shortage 40-50%• Bhutan 1488 MW, No Shortage, Export to India• Pakistan 20922 MW, Shortage 5000-7000MW• Nepal 714 MW Monsoon Supply 660MW Winter 325MW

Power cut 12 to 16 Hours, Exporter and Importer• Afghanistan Around 1200MW (66% Imported)• Sri Lanka 2878MW (Costly Electricity) No Shortage • India Around 200,000MW, Peak Shortage Around 15% All SAARC Countries are Facing Shortage of Power, Except

Bhutan

Energy Resource

• Bhutan and Nepal Have Huge Hydro Potential • North East India Have Around 60,000MW Hydro Potential• Myanmar Have 7000MW Hydro Potential Near Bangladesh• India and Bangladesh Need More and More Power for their

Economic Growth, But Both of them facing Shortage of Primary Energy Like Coal, Gas

• Bangladesh Fully Depends on Gas (77% Power from Gas), 3 Bt Coal reserve and Around 10 TCF Gas

• So, Bangladesh Needs to Import Power from neighbouring Countries

Regional Cooperation

• Nepal-India Power Exchange; Bhutan-India power Exchange• Bangladesh-India Power Exchange (250MW+250MW) from

Baharampur to Bheramara (On Going)• Bangladesh-India Power Exchange from Tripura (Proposed)• India-Sri Lanka Power Exchange (Planning Stage)• Power from Central Asia through Afghanistan-Pakistan-India;• Bangladesh-Myanmar Power Exchange

SAARC Energy Cooperation

• SAARC Power Grid• Four-Nation Power Grid• SAARC Energy Ring• Cross-border Energy Project • Multi-lateral discussion, bilateral discussion;• Political Challenges

SAARC Energy Cooperation

• India: regional cooperation through bilateral cooperation

• Main obstacle was to start India-Bangladesh power Exchange

• India-Bangladesh-India Power Exchange (develop N-E hydro resources)

Challenges

• Transforming bilateral Power Exchange into Multi-lateral

• Four-nation Power Grid (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal)

• Four-nation Power Pool, Power Trading• Competition and Low-carbon Development

Political Challenges

• India should Take the Lead • India-Pakistan Energy Exchange• Pump Energy from Central Asia and the

Middle East• SAARC Energy Resources Fall Short of it

Requirement; • Start Working on Outside SAARC Cooperation

by Now

Conclusion

• Political Leadership Should Find Cooperation Formulae

• Identify Technical Barriers & Solve Them• Legal Framework• Efficient Use of Energy• Energy Conservation