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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report This research product is commissioned and paid for by the company covered in this report. As such, this report is deemed to constitute an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit (i.e. not investment research) as defined in MiFID II. Concordia Maritime Reason: Preview of results Company sponsored research Not rated Awaiting the IMO 2020 spark We expect Q2’19 EBITDA of SEK 37m Refining profitability to support tanker demand Crude oil market providing support We expect Q2’19 EBITDA of SEK 37m Suezmax rates began Q2’19 from a low point and accelerated to levels of up to USD 23kpd later in the quarter, averaging ~USD 15kpd (down 28% q-o-q and up 49% y-o-y), below the CBE of ~USD 25kpd. MR tankers slowed to ~USD 11kpd per day (down 16% q-o-q and up 44% y- o-y), beneath their CBE of ~USD 17kpd. Adjusting for the earlier exiting of the chartered-in fleet and slightly lower rates in Q3’19, we expect Q2’19 EBITDA of SEK 37m and decrease our 2019e EBITDA to SEK 292m (SEK 346m). The Q2 results are due on 15 August. Refining profitability to support tanker demand With IMO 2020 approaching, the IEA expects refinery runs to strongly increase by 0.5 MMBD and 1.1 MMBD in Q3’19 and Q4’19, respectively, helping to spur product tanker demand. Increased runs have historically contributed to strong tanker cycles, and will be incentivised by enlarged refining margins from the regulation. Oil Major Repsol in its recent Q2’19 call conservatively guided a 22% refining margin increase solely due to the regulation, which is a position we believe most complex refiners will exploit by increasing their seaborne oil product trading. Crude oil market providing support Our oil market estimates imply a substantial stock draw in Q3’19 which will cause short-term pain in the tanker market. However, we expect this to reverse to a small build in Q4’19 in tandem with the seasonally strong winter months, with oil supply gaining momentum and resulting in a substantial build and higher tanker rates in Q1’20. Most notably, Non- OPEC supply growth will exceed global demand growth, pushing substantial oil volumes onto the market and reducing Call-on-OPEC. Assuming continued OPEC cuts, incremental Non-OPEC volumes will have a ~138% longer haul than OPEC volumes from the MEG when heading to Asia. When adjusting for fleet supply growth the net effect will be a tanker shortage, which should help the tanker market firm substantially starting from Q4’19. 25/07/2019 Performance Equity Research - 31 July 2019 23:05 CET SEKm 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Sales 828 1,053 1,132 1,287 1,102 EBITDA 51 57 292 551 374 EBITDA margin (%) 6.2 5.4 25.8 42.8 33.9 EBIT adj -625 -130 46 303 125 EBIT adj margin (%) -75.5 -12.3 4.0 23.5 11.4 Pretax profit -660 -182 -55 200 35 EPS rep -13.83 -3.81 -1.15 4.19 0.74 EPS adj -3.90 -3.81 -1.15 4.19 0.74 Sales growth (%) -20.3 27.2 7.5 13.7 -14.4 EPS growth (%) -1,052.4 72.4 69.9 464.7 -82.4 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Estimate changes (%) 2019e 2020e 2021e Sales -4.4% 3.3% 3.3% EBIT (rep) -56.4% 6.1% 10.2% EPS (rep) -943.8% 7.2% 27.6% Source: ABG Sundal Collier Share price (SEK) 12.6 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services, Sweden CCORb.ST/CCORB SS MCap (SEKm) 601 MCap (EURm) 57.1 Net debt (EURm) 96 No. of shares (m) 47.7 Free float (%) 100.0 Av. daily volume (k) 3.6 Next event Q2 report: 15 Aug 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 Jul 16 Sep 16 Nov 16 Jan 17 Mar 17 May 17 Jul 17 Sep 17 Nov 17 Jan 18 Mar 18 May 18 Jul 18 Sep 18 Nov 18 Jan 19 Mar 19 May 19 Concordia Maritime OMX ST H PI 1m 3m 12m Absolute (%) 13.0 16.1 25.4 OMX STH PI (%) 0.9 -1.5 4.5 Source: FactSet 2019e 2020e 2021e P/E (x) -11.0 3.0 17.1 P/E adj (x) -11.0 3.0 17.1 P/BVPS (x) 0.55 0.46 0.45 EV/EBITDA (x) 5.5 2.3 2.7 EV/EBIT adj (x) 35.3 4.1 8.0 EV/sales (x) 1.42 0.97 0.91 ROE adj (%) -5.1 16.7 2.7 Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0 FCF yield (%) 18.8 59.2 40.8 Net IB debt/EBITDA 3.4 1.2 1.1 Lead analyst: Lukas Daul Dennis Anghelopoulos
15

Concordia Maritime...the Stena Sphere helps the company to achieve meaningful access to financing and top-tier operational competence. Concordia Maritime 31 July 2019 ABG Sundal Collier

Jul 05, 2020

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Page 1: Concordia Maritime...the Stena Sphere helps the company to achieve meaningful access to financing and top-tier operational competence. Concordia Maritime 31 July 2019 ABG Sundal Collier

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report This research product is commissioned and paid for by the company covered in this report. As such, this report is deemed to

constitute an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit (i.e. not investment research) as defined in MiFID II.

Concordia Maritime

Reason: Preview of results

Company sponsored research

Not rated

Awaiting the IMO 2020 spark

We expect Q2’19 EBITDA of SEK 37m

Refining profitability to support tanker demand

Crude oil market providing support

We expect Q2’19 EBITDA of SEK 37m

Suezmax rates began Q2’19 from a low point and accelerated to levels

of up to USD 23kpd later in the quarter, averaging ~USD 15kpd (down

28% q-o-q and up 49% y-o-y), below the CBE of ~USD 25kpd. MR

tankers slowed to ~USD 11kpd per day (down 16% q-o-q and up 44% y-

o-y), beneath their CBE of ~USD 17kpd. Adjusting for the earlier exiting

of the chartered-in fleet and slightly lower rates in Q3’19, we expect

Q2’19 EBITDA of SEK 37m and decrease our 2019e EBITDA to SEK

292m (SEK 346m). The Q2 results are due on 15 August.

Refining profitability to support tanker demand

With IMO 2020 approaching, the IEA expects refinery runs to strongly

increase by 0.5 MMBD and 1.1 MMBD in Q3’19 and Q4’19, respectively,

helping to spur product tanker demand. Increased runs have historically

contributed to strong tanker cycles, and will be incentivised by enlarged

refining margins from the regulation. Oil Major Repsol in its recent Q2’19

call conservatively guided a 22% refining margin increase solely due to

the regulation, which is a position we believe most complex refiners will

exploit by increasing their seaborne oil product trading.

Crude oil market providing support

Our oil market estimates imply a substantial stock draw in Q3’19 which

will cause short-term pain in the tanker market. However, we expect this

to reverse to a small build in Q4’19 in tandem with the seasonally strong

winter months, with oil supply gaining momentum and resulting in a

substantial build and higher tanker rates in Q1’20. Most notably, Non-

OPEC supply growth will exceed global demand growth, pushing

substantial oil volumes onto the market and reducing Call-on-OPEC.

Assuming continued OPEC cuts, incremental Non-OPEC volumes will

have a ~138% longer haul than OPEC volumes from the MEG when

heading to Asia. When adjusting for fleet supply growth the net effect will

be a tanker shortage, which should help the tanker market firm

substantially starting from Q4’19.

25/07/2019

Performance

Equity Research - 31 July 2019 23:05 CET

SEKm 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

Sales 828 1,053 1,132 1,287 1,102

EBITDA 51 57 292 551 374

EBITDA margin (%) 6.2 5.4 25.8 42.8 33.9

EBIT adj -625 -130 46 303 125

EBIT adj margin (%) -75.5 -12.3 4.0 23.5 11.4

Pretax profit -660 -182 -55 200 35

EPS rep -13.83 -3.81 -1.15 4.19 0.74

EPS adj -3.90 -3.81 -1.15 4.19 0.74

Sales growth (%) -20.3 27.2 7.5 13.7 -14.4

EPS growth (%) -1,052.4 72.4 69.9 464.7 -82.4

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data

Estimate changes (%)

2019e 2020e 2021e

Sales -4.4% 3.3% 3.3%

EBIT (rep) -56.4% 6.1% 10.2%

EPS (rep) -943.8% 7.2% 27.6%

Source: ABG Sundal Collier

Share price (SEK) 12.6

Oil & Gas Equipment & Services, Sweden

CCORb.ST/CCORB SS

MCap (SEKm) 601

MCap (EURm) 57.1

Net debt (EURm) 96

No. of shares (m) 47.7

Free float (%) 100.0

Av. daily volume (k) 3.6

Next event Q2 report: 15 Aug

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jul 1

6

Se

p 1

6

No

v 16

Jan

17

Mar

17

May

17

Jul 1

7

Se

p 1

7

No

v 17

Jan

18

Mar

18

May

18

Jul 1

8

Se

p 1

8

No

v 18

Jan

19

Mar

19

May

19

Concordia Maritime OMX STH PI

1m 3m 12m

Absolute (%) 13.0 16.1 25.4

OMX STH PI (%) 0.9 -1.5 4.5

Source: FactSet

2019e 2020e 2021e

P/E (x) -11.0 3.0 17.1

P/E adj (x) -11.0 3.0 17.1

P/BVPS (x) 0.55 0.46 0.45

EV/EBITDA (x) 5.5 2.3 2.7

EV/EBIT adj (x) 35.3 4.1 8.0

EV/sales (x) 1.42 0.97 0.91

ROE adj (%) -5.1 16.7 2.7

Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0

FCF yield (%) 18.8 59.2 40.8

Net IB debt/EBITDA 3.4 1.2 1.1

Lead analyst: Lukas Daul

Dennis Anghelopoulos

Page 2: Concordia Maritime...the Stena Sphere helps the company to achieve meaningful access to financing and top-tier operational competence. Concordia Maritime 31 July 2019 ABG Sundal Collier

Concordia Maritime

31 July 2019 ABG Sundal Collier 2

Oil price estimates (Brent USD/bbl)

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data

EPS estimate changes, 2019e, SEK

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet

EPS estimate changes, 2020e, SEK

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet

Quarterly sales and adj. EBIT, SEKm

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data

OpportunitiesWhile declining asset values and day rates are risks for oil

tanker companies, increasing asset values and day rates

would, all else equal, be positive. A tight freight market

results in increased day rates, which consequently drives

asset values. Increasing net asset values would be

supportive for valuations across the sector, whilst

sustained day rates at healthy levels mean increased

dividend capacity with the potential for highly attractive

dividend yields.

RisksDeclining asset values and day rates are, in our view, the

biggest risks for listed oil tanker companies. Low day rates

and lack of funding could lead to deteriorating asset

values, which in turn would put pressure on NAVs.

Furthermore, sustained day rates at depressed levels

could lead to balance sheet issues for ship owners. A more

balanced oil market is likely to lead to higher oil prices and

less tanker demand for stockpiling.

4954

5052

61

67

74 75

6863

6865 65 65 65 65 65 65 65

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Q4

16

Q1

17

Q2

17

Q3

17

Q4

17

Q1

18

Q2

18

Q3

18

Q4

18

Q1

19

Q2

19

e

Q3

19

e

Q4

19

e

Q1

20

e

Q2

20

e

Q3

20

e

Q4

20

e

Q1

21

e

Q2

21

e

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

ABGSC FactSet Consensus Mean

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

ABGSC FactSet Consensus Mean

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

quarterly sales quarterly adj. EBIT

Company descriptionConcordia Maritime is an international tanker shipping

company focusing on the transportation of crude oils, oil

products, chemicals, and vegetable oils. The company

owns a fleet of ten P-MAX product tankers, two IMOIIMAX

chemical/product tankers, one Suezmax, and shares in six-

contracted MR (ECO)-vessels. Concordia’s position within

the Stena Sphere helps the company to achieve

meaningful access to financing and top-tier operational

competence.

Page 3: Concordia Maritime...the Stena Sphere helps the company to achieve meaningful access to financing and top-tier operational competence. Concordia Maritime 31 July 2019 ABG Sundal Collier

Concordia Maritime

31 July 2019 ABG Sundal Collier 3

Detailed estimates and consensus table

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet, company data

Concordia Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons.

SEKm Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19e Q3'19e Q4'19e Q2'19e Dev. 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e 2019e 2020e 2021e Dev. Dev. Dev.

Income Statement

Revenues 200 227 259 368 311 245 268 308 295 -17% 1,053 1,132 1,287 1,102 1,184 1,246 1,067 -4% 3% 3%

EBITDA 7 -9 -18 77 82 37 68 105 80 -54% 57 292 551 374 300 503 355 -2% 10% 5%

EBITDA margins 4% -4% -7% 21% 26% 15% 25% 34% 27% 5% 26% 43% 34% 25% 40% 33%

EBIT -36 -56 -66 28 21 -25 6 43 19 n.m -130 45 303 125 104 285 114 -56% 6% 10%

EBIT margins -18% -24% -26% 8% 7% -10% 2% 14% 6% -12% 4% 24% 11% 9% 23% 11%

Net profit -39 -57 -67 -19 2 -52 -21 16 -7 n.m -182 -55 200 35 6 187 28 n.m 7% 26%

# avg. shares 47.7 47.7 47.7 47.7 47.7 47.7 47.7 47.7 47.7 47.7 47.7 47.7 47.7 47.7 47.7 47.7

EPS -0.81 -1.19 -1.40 -0.41 0.04 -1.08 -0.44 0.34 -0.15 n.m -3.81 -1.15 4.19 0.74 0.13 3.92 0.59 n.m 7% 26%

DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 n.m 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 n.m. n.a. n.a.

Key BS and CF figures

Gross interest bearing debt 1,620 1,686 1,626 1,539 2,398 2,340 2,283 2,225 1,539 2,225 1,994 1,700

Gross cash 193 360 264 224 217 174 156 172 224 172 298 249

NIBD 1,427 1,326 1,362 1,315 2,181 2,166 2,127 2,052 1,315 2,052 1,696 1,451

NIBD/share (USD) 29.9 27.8 28.5 27.6 45.7 45.4 44.6 43.0 27.6 43.0 35.5 30.4

Book equity/share (USD) 25.3 25.9 24.2 22.2 24.2 23.1 22.7 23.0 22.2 23.0 27.2 27.9

Operating cash flow -4 -69 -31 -11 -10 15 39 75 -116 119 446 288

Free cash flow -24 -85 22 72 5 15 39 75 -15 134 356 245

Free cash flow /share (USD) -0.5 -1.8 0.5 1.5 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 -0.3 2.8 7.5 5.1

Page 4: Concordia Maritime...the Stena Sphere helps the company to achieve meaningful access to financing and top-tier operational competence. Concordia Maritime 31 July 2019 ABG Sundal Collier

Concordia Maritime

31 July 2019 ABG Sundal Collier 4

Investment case

…and refineries took the opportunity to prepare for IMO 2020…

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Bloomberg

…with refinery throughput expected to increase substantially in H2’19…

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, IEA

…with the majority of growth coming from East of Suez…

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, IEA

…with increased oil product builds helping to spur trade and tanker demand

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, IEA

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

Refinery Outages (kbpd) 5yr range

5yraverage

2019

2018

Take advantage of cheap crude

IMO 2020 preparations

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

Global Refining, Crude Throughput (MMBD)

Range 13-18 2018 Average 13-18

11.9 12 1212.3

12.6 12.4 12.6 12.7 12.575 12.6

10.7 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.810.5

10.710.9 10.725

11.2

7.37.6

8.2 8.1 7.9 7.9 8.1 8.3 8.058.4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19e Q3'19e Q4'19e 2019 2020

China, Other Asia, and Middle East Refinery Runs (MMBD)

China Other Asia Middle East

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20

VLC

C r

ate

s

MM

BD

Implied Refined Product Balance vs. VLCC rates

Implied global refined product balance VLCC rates ABGSCe

Rates low due to oversupply and stock draw

Better supply-demand picture due to scrubber retrofits

Refinery margins have been weak…

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Bloomberg, Baltic Exchange

250

350

450

550

650

750

850

950

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Feb-13 Oct-13 Jun-14 Feb-15 Oct-15 Jun-16 Feb-17 Oct-17 Jun-18 Feb-19

Index

US

D/b

bl

Refinery Margins vs. Baltic Clean Tanker Index

Global Refinery Margin BCTI Index

Page 5: Concordia Maritime...the Stena Sphere helps the company to achieve meaningful access to financing and top-tier operational competence. Concordia Maritime 31 July 2019 ABG Sundal Collier

Concordia Maritime

31 July 2019 ABG Sundal Collier 5

Our oil markets estimates imply stockbuild which should be supportive for tanker rates

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Clarksons (rates)

Non-OPEC supply is growing stronger than global oil demand…

...with the substantial supply growth …

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Clarksons (historical rates)

…implying a reduction of Call-on-OPEC

This should substantially increase the average haul…

Source: ABG Sundal Collier,

…and help clear the incoming supply

1.36

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

Q1'1

5

Q2'1

5

Q3'1

5

Q4'1

5

Q1'1

6

Q2'1

6

Q3'1

6

Q4'1

6

Q1'1

7

Q2'1

7

Q3'1

7

Q4'1

7

Q1'1

8

Q2'1

8

Q3'1

8

Q4'1

8

Q1'1

9

Q2'1

9e

Q3'1

9e

Q4'1

9e

Q1'2

0e

Q2'2

0e

Q3'2

0e

Q4'2

0e

VLCC rates vs. Implied stock build

Implied Stock Build

VLCC Rates

MMBD USD/d

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00 Non-OPEC vs. World Oil Demand Growth

Non-OPEC Supply y-o-y growth Oil Demand Growth

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5 Non-OPEC Supply growth MMBD vs. VLCC rates

Non-OPEC supply growth VLCC rates ABGSCe

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

Call on OPEC MMBD vs. VLCC rates

Call-on-OPEC VLCC rates ABGSCe

104

84

9895

40

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Houston - China Brazil - China Norway - China Average Non-OPEC Ras Tanura - China

Average Roundtrip Duration75

82

-19 -17

-69

-42

-12

24

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

2019 2020

Supply vs. Demand - VLCC Equivalents

Non-OPEC supply growth Call-on-OPEC reduction

Net Fleet growth VLCC equivalents Net Effect - VLCC equivalents

Page 6: Concordia Maritime...the Stena Sphere helps the company to achieve meaningful access to financing and top-tier operational competence. Concordia Maritime 31 July 2019 ABG Sundal Collier

Concordia Maritime

31 July 2019 ABG Sundal Collier 6

Valuation

NAV per share (SEK)

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Clarksons, company data

NAV sensitivity

63

0

63

46

18

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Steel Value Other GAV NIBD NAV

CCOR NAV Breakdown per share (SEK)

14

4

26

9

12

15

18

20

2325

28

31

12.7

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

NAV Sensititvity

Page 7: Concordia Maritime...the Stena Sphere helps the company to achieve meaningful access to financing and top-tier operational competence. Concordia Maritime 31 July 2019 ABG Sundal Collier

Concordia Maritime

31 July 2019 ABG Sundal Collier 7

Rates

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Clarksons

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Clarksons

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Clarksons

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Suez Timecharter Rates

1yr 3yr 5yr

5,000

7,000

9,000

11,000

13,000

15,000

17,000

19,000

21,000

23,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

MR Timecharter Rates

1yr 3yr 5yr

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Baltic Clean Index (BCTI)

Rates performance table

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Clarksons

Last Done LD -1y Δ y-o-y YTD YTD -1y Δ y-o-y 10y avg Δ vs. LD

Suez Spot 13,460 11,629 16% 17,941 8,720 106% 23,515 -43%

MR Spot 7,678 7,734 -1% 12,085 8,754 38% 11,963 -36%

Suez TC 24,500 16,000 53% 23,491 16,207 45% 23,400 5%

MR TC 14,750 12,750 16% 14,000 13,397 5% 14,355 3%

Baltic Dirty 626 722 -13% 727 684 6% 753 -17%

Baltic Clean 507 497 2% 586 560 5% 609 -17%

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Baltic Dirty Index (BDTI)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

MR Spot Rates

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Suez Spot Rates

Page 8: Concordia Maritime...the Stena Sphere helps the company to achieve meaningful access to financing and top-tier operational competence. Concordia Maritime 31 July 2019 ABG Sundal Collier

Concordia Maritime

31 July 2019 ABG Sundal Collier 8

Values

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Clarksons

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Clarksons

©

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19

Suezmax Resale (USDm)

Suezmax Resale

36

29

31

33

35

37

39

41

Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19

MR Resale (USDm)

MR Resale

61.5

67.0

50.0

36.0

20.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

Suez NB Suez Resale Suez 5y Suez 10y Suez 15y

Current Suez Values

36.539.0

30.0

19.0

10.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

MR NB MR Resale MR 5y MR 10y MR 15y

Current MR Values

Values performance table

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Clarksons

Last done LD -1y Δ y-o-y Δ YTD 10y avg Δ vs. LD

Suez NB 62 59 4% 2% 61 -1%

Suez Resale 67 59 15% 2% 64 -5%

Suez 5y 50 44 15% 9% 50 0%

MR NB 37 36 3% 0% 35 -4%

MR Resale 39 36 8% 4% 36 -7%

MR 5y 30 27 12% 9% 26 -12%

Page 9: Concordia Maritime...the Stena Sphere helps the company to achieve meaningful access to financing and top-tier operational competence. Concordia Maritime 31 July 2019 ABG Sundal Collier

Concordia Maritime

31 July 2019 ABG Sundal Collier 9

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data

Income Statement (SEKm) Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019

Sales 211 198 194 200 227 259 368 311

COGS -201 -196 -184 -193 -236 -189 -203 -153

Gross profit 10 2 10 7 -9 70 165 158

Other operating items 0 0 0 0 0 -88 -88 -76

EBITDA 10 2 10 7 -9 -18 77 82

Depreciation on tangibles -55 -50 -43 -43 -46 -48 -49 -60

Depreciation on intangibles 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

EBITA -45 -48 -33 -36 -56 -66 28 21

Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other impairment and amortisation 0 -474 0 0 0 0 0 0

EBIT -45 -522 -33 -36 -56 -66 28 21

Interest Net 2 -11 -9 -2 -2 -1 -48 -19

Other financial items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Associated income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other EO items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Pretax profit -44 -533 -42 -39 -57 -67 -19 2

Tax 0 0 0 0 0 -0 -0 -0

Net profit -44 -533 -42 -39 -57 -67 -19 2

Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Net profit discontinued 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Net profit to shareholders -44 -533 -42 -39 -57 -67 -19 2

EPS -0.92 -11.17 -0.88 -0.81 -1.20 -1.40 -0.41 0.04

EPS Adj -0.92 -1.24 -0.88 -0.81 -1.20 -1.40 -0.41 0.04

Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Tax rate (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0.1 0.5 5.6

Gross margin (%) 4.7 1.0 5.2 3.5 -4.1 27.0 44.9 50.7

EBITDA margin (%) 4.7 1.0 5.2 3.5 -4.1 -6.9 21.0 26.3

EBITA margin (%) -21.5 -24.3 -17.0 -18.2 -24.4 -25.6 7.7 6.8

EBIT margin (%) -21.5 -263.8 -17.0 -18.2 -24.4 -25.6 7.7 6.8

Pretax margin (%) -20.7 -269.5 -21.7 -19.3 -25.2 -25.8 -5.2 0.6

Net margin (%) -20.7 -269.5 -21.7 -19.3 -25.2 -25.9 -5.3 0.5

Growth rates Y/Y Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019

Sales growth (%) -24.8 -8.1 -30.4 -11.2 7.5 30.7 89.8 55.7

EBITDA growth (%) -82.5 -96.3 -90.8 -76.2 -chg -chg 671.0 1,067.1

EBIT growth (%) -chg -chg -chg -chg -chg +chg +chg +chg

Net profit growth (%) -chg -chg -chg +chg -chg +chg +chg +chg

EPS growth (%) -chg -chg -chg +chg -chg +chg +chg +chg

Adj earnings numbers Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019

EBITDA Adj 10 2 10 7 -9 -18 77 82

EBITDA Adj margin (%) 4.7 1.0 5.2 3.5 -4.1 -6.9 21.0 26.3

EBITA Adj -45 -48 -33 -36 -56 -66 28 21

EBITA Adj margin (%) -21.5 -24.3 -17.0 -18.2 -24.4 -25.6 7.7 6.8

EBIT Adj -45 -522 -33 -36 -56 -66 28 21

EBIT Adj margin (%) -21.5 -263.8 -17.0 -18.2 -24.4 -25.6 7.7 6.8

Pretax profit Adj -44 -59 -42 -39 -57 -67 -19 2

Net profit Adj -44 -59 -42 -39 -57 -67 -19 2

Net profit to shareholders Adj -44 -59 -42 -39 -57 -67 -19 2

Net Adj margin (%) -20.7 -30.0 -21.7 -19.3 -25.2 -25.9 -5.3 0.5

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Concordia Maritime

31 July 2019 ABG Sundal Collier 10

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data

Income Statement (SEKm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

Sales 543 468 531 810 1,038 828 1,053 1,132 1,287 1,102

COGS -315 -323 -330 -386 -719 -776 -996 -840 -736 -728

Gross profit 228 145 201 424 320 51 57 292 551 374

Other operating items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

EBITDA 228 145 201 424 320 51 57 292 551 374

Depreciation on tangibles -151 -144 -145 -214 -237 -202 -187 -247 -248 -248

Depreciation on intangibles 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

EBITA 78 0 57 210 83 -151 -130 46 303 125

Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other impairment and amortisation -411 0 0 0 0 -474 0 0 0 0

EBIT -334 0 57 210 83 -625 -130 46 303 125

Interest Net -36 -39 -40 -35 -26 -36 -52 -100 -103 -90

Other financial items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Associated income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other EO items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Pretax profit -369 -39 17 174 57 -660 -182 -55 200 35

Tax 13 10 -8 -1 13 0 -0 -0 0 0

Net profit -356 -29 9 174 69 -660 -182 -55 200 35

Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Net profit discontinued 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Net profit to shareholders -356 -29 9 174 69 -660 -182 -55 200 35

EPS -7.46 -0.60 0.19 3.64 1.45 -13.83 -3.81 -1.15 4.19 0.74

EPS Adj 1.15 -0.60 0.19 3.64 1.45 -3.90 -3.81 -1.15 4.19 0.74

Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Tax rate (%) 3.6 26.2 46.7 0.3 22.4 0 0.1 0.2 0 0

Gross margin (%) 42.0 30.9 37.9 52.3 30.8 6.2 5.4 25.8 42.8 33.9

EBITDA margin (%) 42.0 30.9 37.9 52.3 30.8 6.2 5.4 25.8 42.8 33.9

EBITA margin (%) 14.3 0.1 10.6 25.9 7.9 -18.2 -12.3 4.0 23.5 11.4

EBIT margin (%) -61.4 0.1 10.6 25.9 7.9 -75.5 -12.3 4.0 23.5 11.4

Pretax margin (%) -68.0 -8.3 3.1 21.5 5.5 -79.7 -17.3 -4.8 15.5 3.2

Net margin (%) -65.5 -6.2 1.7 21.5 6.7 -79.7 -17.3 -4.8 15.5 3.2

Growth rates Y/Y 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

Sales growth (%) -2.9 -13.9 13.6 52.5 28.2 -20.3 27.2 7.5 13.7 -14.4

EBITDA growth (%) -5.9 -36.6 39.0 110.7 -24.6 -84.0 10.9 413.4 88.6 -32.1

EBIT growth (%) -409.9 100.1 14,025.0 271.2 -60.7 -857.0 79.2 135.0 564.5 -58.6

Net profit growth (%) -519.8 91.9 130.9 1,853.9 -60.1 -1,052.4 72.4 69.9 464.7 -82.4

EPS growth (%) -519.8 91.9 130.9 1,853.9 -60.1 -1,052.4 72.4 69.9 464.7 -82.4

Profitability 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

ROE (%) -22.9 -2.2 0.6 10.1 3.5 -39.9 -15.9 -5.1 16.7 2.7

ROE Adj (%) 3.5 -2.2 0.6 10.1 3.5 -11.3 -15.9 -5.1 16.7 2.7

ROCE (%) -9.3 0.3 1.8 5.6 2.8 -18.3 -3.9 2.5 13.8 6.1

ROCE Adj(%) 2.6 0.3 1.8 5.6 2.8 -3.5 -3.9 2.5 13.8 6.1

ROIC (%) -9.5 0.0 0.9 5.5 2.7 -21.0 -5.1 1.6 9.4 4.1

ROIC Adj (%) -9.5 0.0 0.9 5.5 2.7 -21.0 -5.1 1.6 9.4 4.1

Adj earnings numbers 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

EBITDA Adj 228 145 201 424 320 51 57 292 551 374

EBITDA Adj margin (%) 42.0 30.9 37.9 52.3 30.8 6.2 5.4 25.8 42.8 33.9

EBITA Adj 78 0 57 210 83 -151 -130 46 303 125

EBITA Adj margin (%) 14.3 0.1 10.6 25.9 7.9 -18.2 -12.3 4.0 23.5 11.4

EBIT Adj -334 0 57 210 83 -625 -130 46 303 125

EBIT Adj margin (%) -61.4 0.1 10.6 25.9 7.9 -75.5 -12.3 4.0 23.5 11.4

Pretax profit Adj 42 -39 17 174 57 -186 -182 -55 200 35

Net profit Adj 55 -29 9 174 69 -186 -182 -55 200 35

Net profit to shareholders Adj 55 -29 9 174 69 -186 -182 -55 200 35

Net Adj margin (%) 10.1 -6.2 1.7 21.5 6.7 -22.5 -17.3 -4.8 15.5 3.2

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31 July 2019 ABG Sundal Collier 11

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data

Cash Flow Statement (SEKm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

EBITDA 228 145 201 424 320 51 57 292 551 374

Net financial items -36 -39 -40 -35 -26 -36 -52 -100 -103 -90

Paid tax 13 10 -8 -1 13 0 -0 -0 0 0

Non-cash items 8 -13 -18 18 -57 -66 -64 -53 24 -47

Cash flow before change in WC 214 103 135 406 250 -50 -59 139 473 237

Change in WC -46 -67 -50 -29 -5 81 -57 -20 -27 51

Operating cash flow 168 36 86 378 245 31 -116 119 446 288

CAPEX tangible fixed assets -428 -65 -88 -459 -90 -78 -3 -6 -90 -43

CAPEX intangible fixed assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Acquisitions and disposals 10 12 328 0 826 477 61 0 0 0

Free cash flow -251 -16 326 -82 981 430 -59 113 356 245

Dividend paid -48 -24 0 0 -24 -24 0 0 0 0

Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0

Other non cash items 10 81 -102 237 -4 -19 88 878 24 -47

Decrease in net IB debt -289 41 224 156 953 387 37 991 381 199

Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

Goodwill 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Definite intangible assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Tangible fixed assets 3,065 2,916 3,130 3,809 3,166 2,306 2,303 3,026 2,867 2,662

Other fixed assets 48 110 207 1 21 0 15 15 15 15

Fixed assets 3,113 3,026 3,336 3,810 3,186 2,306 2,318 3,041 2,883 2,677

Inventories 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Receivables 127 193 243 271 277 196 254 274 301 250

Other current assets 97 82 0 0 273 223 97 85 85 85

Cash and liquid assets 144 106 137 274 406 244 126 88 213 164

Total assets 3,481 3,407 3,716 4,355 4,142 2,968 2,795 3,487 3,481 3,175

Shareholders equity 1,331 1,292 1,575 1,869 2,090 1,222 1,062 1,097 1,297 1,332

Minority 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total equity 1,331 1,292 1,575 1,869 2,090 1,222 1,062 1,097 1,297 1,332

Long-term debt 1,980 1,863 2,014 2,129 1,700 1,413 1,108 878 647 352

Pension debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Convertible debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Deferred tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other long-term liabilities 0 0 0 0 0 0 193 1,033 1,033 1,033

Short-term debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 221 231 231 231

Accounts payable 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other current liabilities 170 252 127 357 353 334 212 250 275 228

Total liabilities and equity 3,481 3,407 3,716 4,355 4,142 2,968 2,795 3,488 3,482 3,176

Net IB debt 1,835 1,747 1,877 1,855 1,273 1,169 1,188 1,005 649 404

Net IB debt excl. pension debt 1,835 1,747 1,877 1,855 1,273 1,169 1,188 1,005 649 404

Capital invested 3,239 3,209 3,578 4,080 3,442 2,502 2,557 3,300 3,168 2,911

Working capital 127 193 243 271 277 196 254 274 301 250

EV breakdown 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

Market cap. diluted (m) na 558 616 931 663 597 582 601 601 601

Net IB debt Adj 1,835 1,747 1,877 1,855 1,273 1,169 1,188 1,005 649 404

Market value of minority 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

EV na 2,306 2,492 2,786 1,936 1,766 1,770 1,607 1,250 1,005

Capital efficiency (%) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

Total assets turnover (%) 15.0 13.6 14.9 20.1 24.4 23.3 36.5 36.0 36.9 33.1

Capital invested turnover (%) 16.1 14.5 15.7 21.2 27.6 27.8 41.6 38.7 39.8 36.3

Capital employed turnover (%) 15.7 14.5 15.8 21.4 26.7 25.8 41.9 49.3 58.8 53.9

Inventories/sales (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Customer advances/sales (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Payables/sales (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Working capital/sales (%) 19.1 34.2 41.1 31.7 26.4 28.6 21.4 23.3 22.3 25.0

Financial risk and debt service 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

Net debt/equity (%) 137.9 135.2 119.2 99.3 60.9 95.7 111.9 91.6 50.0 30.3

Net debt/market cap (%) na 322.8 305.5 226.9 166.8 185.2 229.0 167.1 107.9 67.1

Equity ratio (%) 38.2 37.9 42.4 42.9 50.5 41.2 38.0 31.5 37.3 42.0

Net IB debt adj./equity (%) 137.9 135.2 119.2 99.3 60.9 95.7 111.9 91.6 50.0 30.3

Current ratio (%) 216.2 151.5 298.3 152.7 271.1 198.4 110.5 92.8 118.4 108.6

EBITDA/net interest (%) 636.2 367.3 505.5 1,200.8 1,234.4 144.5 109.8 291.4 537.0 414.5

Net IB debt/EBITDA (%) 803.5 1,207.5 932.7 437.6 398.2 2,278.6 2,087.3 344.1 117.8 108.0

Interest cover (%) 186.1 18.2 136.8 554.2 206.2 -155.9 -120.1 50.9 294.9 139.0

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31 July 2019 ABG Sundal Collier 12

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data

Valuation and Ratios (SEKm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

Shares outstanding adj. 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48

Fully diluted shares Adj 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48

EPS -7.46 -0.60 0.19 3.64 1.45 -13.83 -3.81 -1.15 4.19 0.74

Dividend per share Adj 1.0 0.5 0 0 0.5 0 0 0 0 0

EPS Adj 1.15 -0.60 0.19 3.64 1.45 -3.90 -3.81 -1.15 4.19 0.74

BVPS 27.88 27.08 32.99 39.15 43.78 25.60 22.24 22.99 27.17 27.91

BVPS Adj 27.88 27.08 32.99 39.15 43.78 25.60 22.24 22.99 27.17 27.91

Net IB debt / share 38.4 36.6 39.3 38.9 26.7 24.5 24.9 21.1 13.6 8.5

Share price na 11.70 12.90 19.50 13.90 12.50 12.20 12.60 12.60 12.60

Market cap. (m) na 558 616 931 663 597 582 601 601 601

Valuation 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

P/E na -19.4 69.2 5.4 9.6 -0.9 -3.2 -11.0 3.0 17.1

EV/sales na 4.93 4.69 3.44 1.87 2.13 1.68 1.42 0.97 0.91

EV/EBITDA na 15.9 12.4 6.6 6.1 34.4 31.1 5.5 2.3 2.7

EV/EBITA na 5,764.3 44.1 13.3 23.5 -11.7 -13.6 35.3 4.1 8.0

EV/EBIT na 5,764.3 44.1 13.3 23.5 -2.8 -13.6 35.3 4.1 8.0

Dividend yield (%) na 4.3 0 0 3.6 0 0 0 0 0

FCF yield (%) na -2.9 52.9 -8.8 147.9 72.1 -10.1 18.8 59.2 40.8

P/BVPS na 0.43 0.39 0.50 0.32 0.49 0.55 0.55 0.46 0.45

P/BVPS Adj na 0.43 0.39 0.50 0.32 0.49 0.55 0.55 0.46 0.45

P/E Adj na -19.4 69.2 5.4 9.6 -3.2 -3.2 -11.0 3.0 17.1

EV/EBITDA Adj na 15.9 12.4 6.6 6.1 34.4 31.1 5.5 2.3 2.7

EV/EBITA Adj na 5,764.3 44.1 13.3 23.5 -11.7 -13.6 35.3 4.1 8.0

EV/EBIT Adj na 5,764.3 44.1 13.3 23.5 -2.8 -13.6 35.3 4.1 8.0

EV/cap. employed na 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5

Investment ratios 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

Capex/sales 78.8 13.8 16.5 56.7 8.6 9.4 0.3 0.5 7.0 3.9

Capex/depreciation 283.8 44.8 60.7 214.4 37.7 38.6 1.6 2.4 36.2 17.2

Capex tangibles/tangible fixed assets 14.0 2.2 2.8 12.1 2.8 3.4 0.1 0.2 3.1 1.6

Capex intangibles/definite intangibles nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm

Depreciation on intangibles/definite intangibles nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm

Depreciation on tangibles/tangibles 4.9 4.9 4.6 5.6 7.5 8.8 8.1 8.1 8.7 9.3

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Analyst certification I/We, Dennis Anghelopoulos, Lukas Daul, the author(s) of this report, certify that not withstanding the existence of any such potential conflicts of interests referred to below, the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my/our personal view about the companies and securities covered in this report.

Analyst valuation methods ABG Sundal Collier analysts may publish valuation ranges for stocks covered under Company Sponsored Research. These valuation ranges rely on various valuation methods. One of the most frequently used methods is the valuation of a company by calculation of that company's discounted cash flow (DCF). Another valuation method is the analysis of a company's return on capital employed relative to its cost of capital. Finally, the analysts may analyse various valuation multiples (e.g. the P/E multiples and the EV/EBITDA multiples) relative to global industry peers. In special cases, particularly for property companies and investment companies, the ratio of price to net asset value is considered. Valuation ranges may be changed when earnings and cash flow forecasts are changed. They may also be changed when the underlying value of a company's assets changes (in the cases of investment companies, property companies or insurance companies) or when factors impacting the required rate of return change.

Important Company Specific Disclosure ssss

The following disclosures relate to the relationship between ABG Sundal Collier and its affiliates and the companies covered by ABG Sundal

Collier referred to in this research report.

Unless disclosed in this section, ABG Sundal Collier has no required regulatory disclosures to make in relation to an ownership position for the

analyst(s) and members of the analyst's household, ownership by ABG Sundal Collier, ownership in ABG Sundal Collier by the company(ies) to

whom the report(s) refer(s) to, market making, managed or co-managed public offerings, compensation for provision of certain services,

directorship of the analyst, or a member of the analyst's household, or in relation to any contractual obligations to the issuance of this research

report.

ABG Sundal Collier has undertaken a contractual obligation to issue this report and receives predetermined compensation from the company covered in this report.

w

mo

ABG Sundal Collier is engaged in providing liquidity in Concordia Maritime ’s securities at the time of this report’s publication.

mo

ABG Sundal Collier is not aware of any other actual, material conflicts of interest of the analyst or ABG Sundal Collier of which the analyst knows or has reason to know at the time of the publication of this report.

Production of report: 31/07/2019 23:05 CET.

All prices are as of market close on 25 July, 2019 unless otherwise noted.

Disclaimer This document has been prepared by ABG Sundal Collier which is the marketing name referring to all or any of ABG Sundal Collier ASA, ABG Sundal Collier AB or ABG Sundal Collier Partners LLP and any of their affiliated or associated companies and their directors, officers, representatives and employees.

This research product is commissioned and paid for by the company covered in this report. As such, this report is deemed to constitute an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit (i.e. not investment research) as defined in MiFID II.

This research product has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination. This report is provided solely for the information and use of professional investors, who are expected to make their own investment decisions without undue reliance on this report. The information contained herein does not apply to, and should not be relied upon by, retail clients. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. Research reports prepared by ABG Sundal Collier are for information purposes only. ABG Sundal Collier accepts no liability whatsoever for any losses arising from any use of this report or its contents. This report is not to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy. The information herein has been obtained from, and any opinions herein are based upon, sources believed reliable, but ABG Sundal Collier makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. All opinions and estimates herein reflect the judgment of ABG Sundal Collier on the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

This research report does not, and does not attempt to contain everything material that there is to be said about Concordia Maritime .

The compensation of our research analysts is determined exclusively by research management and senior management, but not including investment banking management. Compensation is not based on specific investment banking revenues, however, it is determined from the profitability of the ABG Sundal Collier Group, which includes earnings from investment banking operations and other business. Investors should assume that ABG Sundal Collier is seeking or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report. The research analyst(s) responsible for the preparation of this report may interact with trading desk and sales personnel and other departments for the purpose of gathering, synthesizing and interpreting market information. From time to time, ABG Sundal Collier and its affiliates and any shareholders, directors, officers or employees thereof may (I) have a position in, or otherwise be interested in, any securities directly or indirectly connected to the subject of this report, or (II) perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other services from, a company mentioned in this report. ABG Sundal Collier relies on information barriers to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas of ABG Sundal Collier, into other areas, units, groups or affiliates of ABG Sundal Collier.

Norway: ABG Sundal Collier ASA is regulated by the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway (Finanstilsynet); Sweden: ABG Sundal Collier AB is regulated by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority (Finansinspektionen); UK: This report is a communication made, or approved for communication in the UK, by ABG Sundal Collier Partners LLP, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the conduct of its business. US: This report is being distributed in the United States in accordance with FINRA Rule 1050(f)(3)(B) by ABG Sundal Collier Inc., a FINRA member which accepts responsibility for its content. Research analysts are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA or the NYSE, and are not associated persons of ABG Sundal Collier Inc. and therefore not subject to FINRA Rule 2241, the research analyst conflict rules. Research reports distributed in the U.S are intended solely for “major institutional investors”, as defined under Rule 15a-6 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Each U.S major institutional investor that receives a copy of this research report by its acceptance represents that it agrees

Concordia Maritime Concordia Maritime Concordia Maritime Concordia Maritime Concordia Maritime Concordia Maritime Concordia Maritime Concordia Maritime Concordia Maritime Concordia Maritime Concordia Maritime Concordia Maritime Concordia Maritime

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31 July 2019 ABG Sundal Collier 14

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Concordia Maritime

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Financials

Magnus Andersson +46 8 566 294 69

Mads Thinggaard +45 35 46 30 18

Patrik Brattelius +46 8 566 286 64

Jan Erik Gjerland +47 22 01 61 16

Jonas Bru Lien +47 22 01 61 71

Food & Beverages

Morten Raunholt Eismark +45 35 46 30 16

Healthcare

Rickard Anderkrans +46 8 566 286 73

Daniel Thorsson +46 8 566 286 82

Victor Forssell +46 8 566 286 92

Jannick Lindegaard Denholt +45 35 46 30 13

lnvestment Companies

Derek Laliberte +46 8 566 286 78

IT

Aksel Øverland Engebakken +47 22 01 61 11

Daniel Thorsson +46 8 566 286 82

André Thormann +45 35 46 30 19

Simon Granath +46 8 566 286 32

Jesper Birch-Jensen +46 8 566 286 13

Media

Aksel Øverland Engebakken +47 22 01 61 11 Derek Laliberte +46 8 566 286 78 Andreas Lundberg +46 8 566 286 51

Metals & Mining

Martin Melbye +47 22 01 61 37

Bengt Jonassen +47 22 01 60 98

Petter Nyström +47 22 01 61 35

Oil & Gas

John Olaisen +47 22 01 61 87

Karl Fredrik Schjøtt-Pedersen +47 22 01 61 65

Oil Service

John Olaisen +47 22 01 61 87

Haakon Amundsen +47 22 01 60 25

Lukas Daul +47 22 01 61 39

Karl Fredrik Schjøtt-Pedersen +47 22 01 61 65

Online Gaming

Aksel Øverland Engebakken +47 22 01 61 11

Erik Moberg +46 8 566 286 87

Stefan Knutsson +46 8 566 286 37

Jesper Birch-Jensen +46 8 566 286 13

Pulp & Paper

Martin Melbye +47 22 01 61 37

Øystein Elton Lodgaard +47 22 01 60 26

Renewable Energy

Casper Blom +45 35 46 30 15

Petter Nyström +47 22 01 61 35

Retail

Andreas Lundberg +46 8 566 286 51

Ludvig Kapanen +46 8 566 286 91

Seafood

Martin Kaland +47 22 01 60 67

Services

Andreas Lundberg +46 8 566 286 51

Morten Raunholt Eismark +45 35 46 30 16

Victor Forssell +46 8 566 286 92

Shipping & Transport

Dennis Anghelopoulos +47 22 01 60 37

Casper Blom +45 35 46 30 15

Lukas Daul +47 22 01 61 39

Telecom Operators

Peter Kurt Nielsen +44 207 905 5631

Utilities

Martin Melbye +47 22 01 61 37

Petter Nyström +47 22 01 61 35

Small Caps

Daniel Thorsson +46 8 566 286 82

Laurits Louis Kjaergaard +45 35 46 30 12

Norway Sweden Denmark United Kingdom USA Germany Singapore

Pb. 1444 Vika Box 7269 Forbindelsesvej 12, 10 Paternoster Row, 5th fl 850 Third Avenue, Suite 9-C Schillerstrasse 2, 5. OG 10 Collyer Quay

NO-0115 OSLO Norway

SE-103 89 STOCKHOLM Sweden

DK-2100 COPENHAGEN Denmark

LONDON EC4M 7EJ UK

NEW YORK, NY 10022 USA

DE-60313 FRANKFURT

Germany

Ocean Financial Center

#40-07, Singapore 049315

Tel: +47 22 01 60 00 Tel: +46 8 566 286 00 Tel: +45 35 46 61 00 Tel: +44 20 7905 5600 Tel. +1 212 605 3800 Tel +49 69 96 86 96 0 Tel +65 6808 6082

Fax: +47 22 01 60 60 Fax: +46 8 566 286 01 Fax: +45 35 46 61 10 Fax: +44 20 7905 5601 Fax. +1 212 605 3801 Fax +49 69 96 86 96 99

Concordia Maritime