COMMUNICATION OF AGROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION – GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES M.V.K. Sivakumar Agricultural Meteorology Division World Meteorological Organization.

COMMUNICATION OF AGROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION – GLOBAL

PERSPECTIVES

COMMUNICATION OF AGROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION – GLOBAL

PERSPECTIVES

M.V.K. Sivakumar

Agricultural Meteorology Division

World Meteorological Organization

M.V.K. Sivakumar

Agricultural Meteorology Division

World Meteorological Organization

PRESENTATIONPRESENTATION

• Introduction • Importance of Information• Communication of information – examples from different regions • User community and information for users• Types of products needed by the users • Recent developments - technological advances• Future challenges • Conclusions

User concerns for environment and

sustainable agriculture point to the urgent need

for a transition from chemical- and machinery-intensive to knowledge-

and labor-intensive farming technologies.

User concerns for environment and

sustainable agriculture point to the urgent need

for a transition from chemical- and machinery-intensive to knowledge-

and labor-intensive farming technologies.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

energy

output

ener

gy p

er h

ecta

re (

109 j

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s)

outp

ut

per

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)

North America

Western Europe

Oceana Africa Latin America

Near East

Far East

Commercial Energy Use and Cereal Output per Hectare (1972)Commercial Energy Use and Cereal Output per Hectare (1972)

Source: Stout, B.A. 1982. Energy for World Agriculture. In Energy Management and Agriculture. Royal Dublin Society.

INFORMATIONINFORMATION

IS KEY ...

We are drowning in information, We are drowning in information, while starving for wisdom …while starving for wisdom …

The World henceforth will be run by The World henceforth will be run by PEOPLEPEOPLE

able to put together the able to put together the RIGHT INFORMATION RIGHT INFORMATION

at the at the RIGHT TIME.RIGHT TIME.

IMPORTANCE OF AGROMETEOROLOGICAL

INFORMATION• Useful for both strategical

and tactical decisions. • Strategic decisions

- Crop planning- Management practices- Marketing

• Tactical decisions- Sowing- Cultivation- Spraying- Irrigation scheduling etc.,

COMMUNICATION OF AGROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION

- EXAMPLES FROM DIFFERENT REGIONS

COMMUNICATION OF AGROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION

- EXAMPLES FROM DIFFERENT REGIONS

ISSUES FROM AFRICA (Akeh and Muchinda, 2002).

ISSUES FROM AFRICA (Akeh and Muchinda, 2002).• Based on responses from 29 NMHSs and 4 institutions to a

questionnnaire

• All respondents issue agrometeorological bulletins and advisories

• 75% of the respondents do not involve agricultural research and extension agencies in the preparation or dissemination of agromet bulletins.

• 80% of respondents stated that their products are targeted at Govt agencies, NGOs, regional and international organizations.

• 80% of the respondents have not made any effort in obtaining feedback from users.

• 90% of the respondents have not made any efforts to assess the economic value and benefit of the use of information provided.

ISSUES FROM ASIA (Kamali and Lee, 2002).ISSUES FROM ASIA (Kamali and Lee, 2002).

• Based on responses from 14 NMHSs to a questionnnaire

• With the exception of 2 NMHSs, all respondents issue agrometeorological bulletins and advisories

• In most cases, products are targeted at Govt agencies, large farming and industry companies. Some provide information to farmers.

• No systematic effort is made to obtain feedback from users.

• Some efforts are made to assess the economic value and benefit of the use of information provided.

• Early warnings are given and distributed to the authorities.

ISSUES FROM SOUTH AMERICA (Carvajal et al. 2002).

ISSUES FROM SOUTH AMERICA (Carvajal et al. 2002).• Based on analysis of eight countries.

• With the exception of 2 NMHSs in South America, all respondents issue agrometeorological bulletins and advisories

• In most cases, products are targeted at general public, farmers, association of producers, technicians, authorities, and commercial companies.

• No systematic effort is made to obtain feedback from users.

• No effort is made to assess the economic value and benefit of the use of information provided.

• Early warnings are given and distributed to the authorities and farmers.

ISSUES FROM NORTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN (Solano and Frutos 2002).ISSUES FROM NORTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA

AND THE CARIBBEAN (Solano and Frutos 2002).

• Very few NMHSs have independent agrometeorological services. Only Canada, Colombia, Cuba and USA have such services.

• Few NMHSs issue agrometeorological bulletins and advisories

• In most cases, products are targeted at farmers, association of producers, technicians, authorities, and commercial companies.

• No systematic effort is made to obtain feedback from users.

• Yearly evaluation is conducted on the cost of preparing the bulletins.

• Early warnings are given and distributed to the authorities and farmers.

ISSUES FROM SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC (Chan and Whitaker 2002).

ISSUES FROM SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC (Chan and Whitaker 2002).

• Based on responses from 7 countries to a questionnaire. • Generally agrometeorological services are provided together with other services of the NMHSs. Only one country has an independent service.

• No agricultural research and extension agencies are involved in issuing agrometeorological bulletins and advisories

• In most cases, products are targeted at farmers, land users, agricultural researchers, extension workers, land development personnel, foresters etc.,

• No systematic effort is made to obtain feedback from users.

• Developing countries do not assess the economic value of the information provided.

ISSUES FROM EUROPE (Dunkel 2002)ISSUES FROM EUROPE (Dunkel 2002)

• Based on responses from 30 countries and one agency.

• Seventeen of the 30 respondent countries have independent agrometeorological units.

• In 19 countries, agricultural research and extension agencies are involved in the preparation of the agrometeorological bulletins and advisories.

• Nine of the countries target farmers. In seven countries the target is the government while in 12 countries extension services or private companies were mentioned as the target.

• In most countries, no systematic effort is made to obtain feedback from users.

• Most countries also do not assess the economic value of the information provided.

LACK OF ADEQUATE INTERACTIONS WITH USERS

PROBLEM

Learn from users about their requirements and tailor the information to their needs

Know which data fit the information needs

Develop analytical tools

INADEQUATE SYNTHESIS ABUNDANCE OF DATA

HOW DO WE DEFINE THE USER COMMUNITY ?

HOW DO WE DEFINE THE USER COMMUNITY ?

The user community for The user community for agrometeorological data and agrometeorological data and

information can be understood information can be understood in its broadest sense to cover in its broadest sense to cover

the “spectrum from institutions the “spectrum from institutions and governments to farmers at and governments to farmers at

the subsistence level”the subsistence level”

CATEGORIES OF USERS COULD VARYCATEGORIES OF USERS COULD VARY

• Farming Community

• Research Community

• Governmental Bodies

• Private sector

• Public

• International Agencies.

CONTENT OF INFORMATION VARIES WITH END USERS

Depending on its purpose, the content of information Depending on its purpose, the content of information can be related to: can be related to:

special advisories provided to farmers through the national extension service

general advisories accessed by farmers directly through the electronic media

early warning advice to prevent famine crisis development of agricultural planning policies development of national climate policies as a follow-

up of the Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change general issues disseminated to the public.

INFORMATION MUST BE RELEVANT TO THE NEEDS OF THE USERS

INFORMATION MUST BE RELEVANT TO THE NEEDS OF THE USERS

• In order to be valuable for the end-users, the content of information must correspond to the particular needs of the end-user.

• Agrometeorological information is often not comprehensive. In many cases, it refers only to the "meteorological" component (i.e., weather conditions, forecasts of future weather events, analyses of past weather)

• It neglects the "agricultural" part, which is the linkage between physical and biological parameters. This linkage is required by farmers to make informed agricultural decisions.

WE NEED TO BE AWARE THAT USER DEMANDS

ARE DYNAMIC AND SHOULD

ADJUST ACCORDINGLY

WE NEED TO BE AWARE THAT USER DEMANDS

ARE DYNAMIC AND SHOULD

ADJUST ACCORDINGLY

LONG-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTINGLONG-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTING

One of the persistent demands from the agriculturists is to have reliable forecasts of seasonal weather patterns as it could help them take appropriate decisions.

Farmer demands can vary from multi-year to seasonal to within-season forecasts.

The activity for which each of these forecasts is needed and the scale of forecasts vary, but their utility is unique and hence the demand is consistent.

MULTI-YEAR FORECASTS AND AGRICULTUREMULTI-YEAR FORECASTS AND AGRICULTURE

Area Activity Parameter Scale ofForecast

Response

FORESTRY Plantationestablishment

TemperatureRainfall

10 years Species choice,spacing inplantation

SEEDPRODUCTION

Strategy Rainfall 5-10 years Choice ofappropriateranges of crops &varieties

DROUGHT-RECOVERY

SUBSIDIES Rain 2-5 years Issue appropriateseeds, Distributehardy smallstock

LIVESTOCKMANAGEMENT

Herd size Rain 5-10 years Culling policy,retention ofyoung females inherd, grazingdevelopment

SEASONAL WEATHER FORECASTS FOR FARMERSSEASONAL WEATHER FORECASTS FOR FARMERS

Weather feature Response AreaLead timeRequired

MinimumPrecision/Accuracy

RequiredDrought 1. To farm/Not to farm

2. Choice of crops & tillagesystems

3 months 90%

Mid Season Drought- start date

Choice of variety &planting date

3 months 80%

Mid Season Drought- length

Choice of crop 3 months 60%

Dry Season - length 1. Disposal of crop residues2. Fodder rationing tolivestock

1 month 40%

Weather feature Response AreaLead timeRequired

MinimumPrecision/Accuracy

RequiredOverall Quality ofRainy Season

1. Choice of Crops, cropvarieties & tillage systemsy

3 months 80%

Planting Rains - date Timing of field operations 0.5-1 month 80%

Planting Rains -nature

Whether to risk dryplanting

0.5 month 80%

End of rainy season- date

1. Timing of harvestoperations2. Possibility of latecatchcrops

2 months 80%

Winter rains -amount

1. Plan summer crops ofoptimum winter ceral crop2. Possibility of other crops

6 months 80%

SEASONAL WEATHER FORECASTS FOR FARMERSSEASONAL WEATHER FORECASTS FOR FARMERS

WITHIN SEASON FORECASTS AND THE FARMERWITHIN SEASON FORECASTS AND THE FARMER

Common FarmingOperation

Key Weather Feature(s) Lead timeMinimumPrecisionrequired

Response

Planting - seedsTransplantingFodder - haymaking - silage Spraying -

RainDry weatherDry weatherDry weather and windDry weather and wind

1-3 days1-3 days1-3 days1-3 days

1 day

80%95%95%80%80%

Timing““““

General - topdressing

Rain 1-3 days 80% Timing

Field - weeding Dry weather 1-3 days 80% Timing

Operations - inter-row cultivation

Dry weather 1-3 days 60% Timing

Irrigation Past evapo-transpiration dataexpected “ “ “

1 week1 week

80%80 %

Adjustirrigationschedule

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS -

TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS -

TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES

BETTER TOOLSBETTER TOOLS

• Enhanced computing power makes data manipulation easy.

• Advances in forecasting techniques are increasing the lead time and the accuracy.

• Information is becoming available rapidly and at low cost through modern communication tools such as internet.

What is best about the internet?

Fast and efficient delivery of information Variety of resources in “one” place Universal(?) access Links

Internet for information dissemination

The internet can potentially provide an efficient means of dissemination

Currently there are several obstacles to its widespread use

Once infrastructure is overcome, it may be limited only to the imagination

As always, web development requires knowledge of user needs

• Revolutionary changes in audio-video media make it easy to take the information to users.

• Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and other spatial modelling tools make it possible to integrate biological, physical and socio-economic factors in a holistic manner

BETTER TOOLS (CONTD.)BETTER TOOLS (CONTD.)

INNOVATIVE PARTNERSHIPSINNOVATIVE PARTNERSHIPS

RANETRANET

The project is a cooperative effort of many national to international organizations that have come together to provide resources and technical expertise in order to improve overall access to climate and weather observations and products. 

RANETRANETRadio and Internet for the Communication of

Hydro-Meteorological and Climate Related Information

011001010110110110

011001010110110110

Person-Person

Radio

Fax

Television

Internet

Satellite and Digital Wireless

Communications

InstitutionsModeling

Computing

Observations

Institutions

Technology & KnowledgeDependency of

Seasonal Forecasts

Technology & KnowledgeDependency of

Seasonal Forecasts

Training

Other Clim-Weather Products

TECH TOOLS FOR SUCCESSTECH TOOLS FOR SUCCESS

2)2) The compiled information is then sent via the internet to a satellite uplink station located in South Africa. Some of this information is automatically updated while other requires manual uploading.

3)3) At the top of nearly every hour the uplink station sends the uploaded information to the satellite for broadcast over all of Africa.

5)5) The broadcast can be used by meteorological services, extension agencies, or even local communities who might use the content to improve their own products or to translate information into the local language and according to local interest.

1)1) Global, regional, national, and local information is gathered from various producers and then blended into single presentation that is compatible with satellite broadcast.

6)6) Technologies, such as the VITA PGS allow rural communities to and extension agencies to send information requests, provide feedback, and receive technical support.

4)4) The broadcast is then received by digital radios that are hooked into

computers.

Current and Planned CoverageCurrent and Planned Coverage

Africa Learning Channels (ALC)Africa Learning Channels (ALC)•Voice Content•Data (multi-media content)

RANET Is Broadcast On the ALC Data Channel4mb of data at the top of nearly every hour•several 25mb broadcasts each week

WorldSpace FoundationAfrica Learning Channel Multi-Media Service Broadcast Capacity

The Africa Learning Channel (ALC) Multi-Media service broadcasts content at a rate of 64kbps, which is delivered in small packages that fit within a 21 megabyte broadcast hour.

Currently the ALC Multi-Media Service rotates material on a six hour basis each day. Although much of the material is rebroadcast to ensure that users have received content, there is nonetheless a total weekly capacity, with the current schedule, of 882 megabytes. Alterations to the schedule could potentially expand this capacity to 1.2 gigabytes per week.

Information broadcast over the system is sent directly to a user’s hard drive where it can be viewed instantaneously and without bandwidth restrictions associated with land line infrastructure. Information remains on a user’s hard drive until it expires or is replaced by updated content.

WorldSpace digital radio receiver protected by wooden box at low amplitude FM radio station in Bankilare, Niger.

The POWER OF NETWORKS•Bankilare Experience•Rural Women•Environmental Issues•Integration

FUTURE CHALLENGES: ADAPT A BOTTOM-UP APPROACH

FUTURE CHALLENGES: ADAPT A BOTTOM-UP APPROACH

Much of the agrometeorological information, despite the rapid technological advances, does not reach small farmers with limited means.

Back to the basics - involve the users right from the beginning ie., adopt a bottom-up approach.

Recognize that users are many and they have diverse needs.

FUTURE CHALLENGES: NEED A PARADIGM SHIFT FROM DATA TO

INFORMATION

FUTURE CHALLENGES: NEED A PARADIGM SHIFT FROM DATA TO

INFORMATIONData collection in itself is a futile exercise if no information is generated from the data. Data gathering dust in filing cabinets is wasted human effort and money.

Information in itself is of no value if nobody uses it. Hence ask why we generate this information in the first place.

Outdated information serves no one. If information can not be generated on time for the end user, why do we even bother to produce it ?

FUTURE CHALLENGES - NEED TO OPERATIONALIZE FUTURE CHALLENGES - NEED TO OPERATIONALIZE THE FORECASTSTHE FORECASTS

Forecast

Timescale

Operational Status Depending on Region

Untried Experimental Pre-operational Operational

Multi-year most areasat

global/hemispherical scale

- -

Seasonalsomeequatorial andhigh latitudeareas

many areasa number of

promising areasincluding southern

Africa

parts of USA,Australia and afew favoured

areas

Within season most areas many areasincluding Southern

Africa

some developedeconomies

well researchedareas including

USA and Europe

CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS

Exciting opportunities exist today to help the agricultural world through agrometeorological advisory services.

A better understanding of the user needs is needed to provide agrometeorological information in a timely and useful manner.

More active collaboration among agrometeorologists, agronomists, extension agents and non-governmental organizations should be encouraged.

Improved two-way communication between farmers, policymakers and researchers is crucial.

WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION