Climate-related impacts Does GCOS have a role? Michael Glantz GCOS 13-16 October 2008 Geneva, Switzerland www.fao.org/docrep/ u8480e/U8480E2t.jpg
Mar 27, 2015
Climate-related impactsDoes GCOS have a role?
Michael Glantz
GCOS
13-16 October 2008
Geneva, Switzerland www.fao.org/docrep/ u8480e/U8480E2t.jpg
Global warming’s “Tipping points”
• IPCC 1st to 3rd Assessments
• IPCC 4th Assessment
• Inconvenient Truth
• Nobel Prize
The Spotlight has shifted
• From …
• WG 1 IPCC SCIENCE
•To … •WG 2 IPCC IMPACTS
Problem ClimatesIn “The Earth’s Problem Climates”
Trewartha (1960) wrote that…
“Many areas [of the earth] are climatically sonormal or usual that they require little comment in a book which professes to emphasize theexceptional”
In “Weather and Climate”R.C. Sutcliffe (1960) wrote that…
“No climates are normal”
What about …Climate?
1984
The climate future is arriving earlier than expected
• Some of the changes associated with a warmer climate are appearing faster than expected
– Melting of the Arctic sea ice– Greenland ice sheet melting– Rising sea level– Warm ecosystems moving
upslope– Glaciers melting globally
Melting Glaciers
Columbia Glacier, Alaska
5 Aspects of Climate
• Climate variability
• Climate fluctuations
• Climate change
New global climate state
• Extreme meteorological events
• SEASONALITY
Perceptions of Climate
• Climate as a constraint
• Climate as a hazard
• Climate as a resource
Perceptions of risk(preceptions "R" Us)
• Risk taking
• Risk averse
• Risk making
Source: B. Fischhoff
How are we doing it?Wholesaling and Retailing
climate, water and weather science
• Wholesaling• Broadcasting
– What it is– Why is it useful information– Who should use it?
• Retailing• Tailoring
– How to use it in specific locations, sectors, activities
– Convincing people of it value– Demonstrating its usability
Perception of Climate’s Impacts on Agriculture
weather
Weather
USDA 1984
Reality of Climate’s Impacts on Agriculture
drought
USDA 1984
Commoner’s “4 Laws of Ecology”
1) Everything is connected to everything else.
2) Everything must go somewhere.
3) Nature knows best.
4) There is no such thing as a free lunch.
Could these also be the 4 Laws of Climate ?
Climate Change Impacts on the United States, USGCRP, 2000
“Climate Science”in the 21st Century
• Understand the Climate SystemUnderstand the Climate System
• Understand its componentsUnderstand its components
• Society is a componentSociety is a component
Coping with climate change and its impacts
• Mitigation
• Adaptation
• Prevention
• Bring back prevention
Physical changes are to be expected
Societal changes are also to be expected
EWSs more important than some governments might realize
Shanghai Harborsocietal changes
1987 2004
Photographs taken from same location
Societies are having to adapt to subtle Creeping Environmental Changes
• Urban heat island• Air pollution• Acid rain• Global warming• Ozone depletion• Soil erosion• Deforestation• Mangrove destruction• Desertification• Water quality & quantity• Increasing population• Increasing affluence• Increasing demands for energy
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
• The equivalent of the IPCC
• Review this document for enhancement of the GCOS mission
What one generation leaves for the next generation
Natural changes; different timescales
Human induced; not all changes are bad
The proverbial 11th hour; little time to act
Too costly, too late. Move on.
Focus here
This level captures attention
Changes become critical
Thresholds of environmental change
Why Care about Hotspots?
• Avoid surprises
• Earliest warning of possible instabilities– Governmental vulnerability– Environmental degradation
• Crossing unforeseen thresholds– Economic progress– Human health and public safety– Food security and insecurity
www.biotech-info.net/ raffensperger/sld007.htm
Precautionary Principle
Late lessons from early warning
European Environment Agency
Words Matter:The concept of climate proofing
• Similar to other idealistic goals, such as• Eradicating poverty
• “No child left behind”
• MDGs by 2015
• Sustainable development
• It is a ‘feel safe’ and ‘feel good’ concept• But… is it realistic? Does it raise ‘false hopes”?
• Toward Climate Proofing is more correct!
Proposed geo-engineering schemes to control climate
After Kellogg & Schneider
REDIRECTING AGULHAS CURRENT
TOWING ICEBERGS
CREATE THERMAL MOUNTAINS
HYDROPOLE
TOW ICEBERGS
Damming the Med
South-North water diversions in China
* And now … aerosol injections to the stratosphere
Christian Kerr, Australian writer (25 May 2005)
• We can't drought proof Australia. What we can do is try to idiot proof public policy – and spend public money in the way that delivers the best possible outcomes.
People and the seasons
• People, societies, and economies are attuned to the normal (expected, not actual) flow of the seasons
• Most people on the globe depend on the normal flow of the seasons for their food supply
Temperature Anomalies (July 2001 compared to July 2003)Deadly Heat Wave in Europe, 2003
2005 was a Busy, Destructive, Deadly & Expensive Hurricane Season
Source: WeatherUnderground.com, December 7, 2005.
2005 set a new record for the number of hurricanes &
tropical storms at 26, breaking the old record set in 1933.
All 21 names were used for the first
time ever, so Greek letters were used for the final 5
storms: Alpha though Epsilon
Global warming and changes in seasonality
• People live by the expected flow of the seasons
• Hunting season, growing season, harvest time, disease outbreaks, rainy season, water season, etc.
• Rainfall timing, intensity, location, extremes are expected to change
• Societal activities that are climate, water and weather dependent will be affected in subtle ways.
Summary thoughts
Plethora of forecasters: too many cooks in the kitchen?
• Many forecast models
• Heavy competition to ‘get it right’ and to be first doing so
• (onset, intensity, duration, impacts)
Integrating knowledge• We must distinguish between
what is interesting and what is essential to know to cope with climate change and its impacts.
• develop methods to link and integrate quantitative and qualitative knowledge, compiled for different time and space scales in different environments.
www.nt.gov.au/.../ bushbook/images/image81.gif
Climate Equity and Ethics• Inter-generational versus intra-
generational equity• Environmental justice
• Downwind• Downstream
• Natural disasters and poverty (the poor tend to live in high risk zones)
• North-South views on climate change• Polluter Pays Principle (except if you
are the polluter!)• Precautionary Principle (“better to be
be safe now than sorry later”)• Nature’s Bank analogy (everyone
knows about banks)
Priority setting
• Governments and institutions must decide about how they are going cope:
• preventive, adaptive, mitigative responses to climate change and its impacts, local to global.
• Not to do this puts responses to climate change and impacts in an “ad hoc” piecemeal modus operandi
cain.ulst.ac.uk/ dd/report10/report10.gif
Why I think time is important to GCOS (and the WMO)
• GCOS has a ‘window of opportunity’
• Focus is shifting from IPCC Assessment for WG1 (Climate Science) to WG2 (Climate Impacts)
• Decision makers want to know about impacts in their jurisdictions
• ‘Ecosystems’ make up the interface between society and the atmosphere (climate)