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Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) [email protected] http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2012 March 20, 2012
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Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) [email protected].

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Page 1: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Climate Change: The Move to Action(AOSS 480 // NRE 480)

Richard B. RoodCell: 301-526-8572

2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)[email protected]

http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood

Winter 2012March 20, 2012

Page 2: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Class News

• Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W12• 2008 and 2010 Class On Line:

– http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action

Page 3: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Project Timeline

• 22 March 2012– In Class Review: Each group should prepare about a

15 minute, 5 – 10 slides, of status of project. Projects will be in different stages, but should have a good idea of the scope and where you are going. This will be a time get some input and refine and focus.

– This need not be polished, but should represent vision, structure, and some essential elements of knowledge.

• 10 and 12 April 2012: Final presentation

Page 4: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

The Current Climate (Released Monthly)

• Climate Monitoring at National Climatic Data Center.– http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html

• State of the Climate: Global

• Interesting new document?– OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: The C

onsequences of Inaction

Page 5: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Today

• An interim synthesis of lectures, readings, discussions

Page 6: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Subjects that need covering

• Stabilization

• Military

• Interface to adaptation

• Geo-engineering

• Sea Level

• Elements of Argument

Page 7: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Climate Science-Policy Relation

CLIMATE SCIENCE KNOWLEDGE

UNCERTAINTY POLICY

PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE

OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE

Page 8: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Framework Convention on Climate Change

Page 9: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Dangerous climate change?

Stern, 2006

Page 10: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Economics

• What about economics does the cost of climate change motivate the development of policy, motivate action?– Stern Report

• What are things that link society together?

Page 11: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Stern Report

• Considered a radical revision of climate change economics.– If we don’t act now it will cost between 5% and 20% of

gross domestic product (an aggregate measure of economy.)

• Stands in contrast to many studies that usually come to numbers of closer to 1%– The idea that initiation of a policy with a slow growth

rate will have little impact on the economy or environment in the beginning, but will ultimately become important when the nature of expenditures is more clear.

Page 12: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Global economic analysis

– Stern Review: Primary Web Page– Stern Report: Executive Summary

– Nordhaus: Criticism of Stern Report– Tol and Yohe: Deconstruction of Stern Report

Page 13: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Stern Review: Criticisms

• Document is fundamentally political: An advocacy document.

• Not up to the standards of academic economic analysis

• Not based on empirical observations of the economy– Observed discount rates– Observed behavior

Page 14: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Economics

• We see here a wide range of projected economic impacts– 1 % Gross Domestic Product– 20 % Gross Domestic Product

• Large difference strongly related to discount rate: how fast does the cost of an investment depreciate?– Empirical– Belief based evaluation of environment and impact on

most vulnerable people

Page 15: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Economics-Policy Relation

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS KNOWLEDGE

UNCERTAINTY POLICY

Economic analysis is not the compelling catalyst to converge the development of policy – at

least on the global scale.

Different story on the local scale.

PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE

OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE

Page 16: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Energy Security-Policy Relation

ENERGY SECURITY KNOWLEDGE

UNCERTAINTY POLICY

PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE

OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE

Page 17: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

An integrated picture?

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

KNOWLEDGE

UNCERTAINTY POLICY

CLIMATE SCIENCE

ENERGY

PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE

OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE

Page 18: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

POPULATION

An integrated picture?

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

KNOWLEDGE

UNCERTAINTY POLICY

CLIMATE SCIENCE

CONSUMPTION

ENERGY

PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE

OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE

Page 19: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Policy?

• As all of these pieces are brought to bear on policy, the fragmentation of those interests begins to show up in policy.

Page 20: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

POPULATION

An integrated picture?

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

KNOWLEDGE

UNCERTAINTY

CLIMATE SCIENCE

FragmentedPolicy

CONSUMPTION

ENERGY

PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE

OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE

Page 21: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Fragmented Policy

• Represents the real, rational interests of different elements.– short-term, long-term; local, global; poor, rich

• As a whole, however, does not work together, and

• may collectively work against, for instance, mitigation of climate change.

• Fragmented policy becomes, perhaps, an accelerator or more integrated, more federal or global policy.

Page 22: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Impacts

• The knowledge that comes from climate science suggests a set of impacts– Agriculture– Forestry– Fisheries– Public health– Water resources– ....

Page 23: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

An integrated picture?

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

KNOWLEDGE

UNCERTAINTY

CLIMATE SCIENCE

FragmentedPolicy

IMPACTS

POPULATION

CONSUMPTION

ENERGY

PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE

OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE

Page 24: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Consideration of Impacts (1)

• Existing problem with existing system to address the problem– Weaknesses in the system often associated with

population stress, by vulnerable population, highly (anti) correlated with wealth and education

• Strongly dependent on extreme events, not the average– Hence want to know how extreme events will change

• Not clearly and distinctly addressed by efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions– Motivator for “Kyoto like” policy?

Page 25: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Consideration of Impacts (2)

• Strongest levers for addressing the problem are– Societal capability (social integration, structure,

communications)– Environmental warnings and alerts – Education (first responders, general public, ....)– Engineering (air conditioners, green spaces, ...)

Page 26: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Imagine your job was to reduce deaths from heat waves

POPULATION CONSUMPTION ENERGY CLIMATE CHANGE

It’s going to get hotter!

MITIGATE CLIMATE CHANGEor

USE MORE ENERGYor...

Page 27: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Integrated or systematic impacts

• Water resources, public health, agriculture, taken in isolation rich countries can imagine that they have technological and engineering solutions to these problems, but

• what about their combined impacts

Page 28: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

An integrated picture?

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

KNOWLEDGE

UNCERTAINTY

CLIMATE SCIENCE

FragmentedPolicy

IMPACTS

INTEGRATEDIIMPACTS

?

POPULATION

CONSUMPTION

ENERGY

PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE

OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE

Page 29: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

What important elements are still missing?

• Law

• Business

• Religion

• Geopolitical

• Migration – what people do

• Education

Page 30: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

There are important elements still missing

• Law– Law offers a possible entry into the “system.”

• Links policy and de facto laws• Links economic windfalls and losses• Links impacts• Links ethical considerations• ....

– Promotes, perhaps, policy

Page 31: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

From Farber: Legal Status

• Climate models establish a lower end estimate for global temperature impacts, but the distribution is less clearly bounded on the high side – or in simpler terms, the high-end risk may be considerable. The models are better at predicting temperature patterns than precipitation patterns, and global predictions are considerably firmer than more localized ones.

• Economic models are much less advanced, and their conclusions should be used with caution. Unfortunately, economists are not always careful about incorporating uncertainty into their policy recommendations.

Page 32: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

From Farber: Legal Status

• Climate scientists have created a unique institutional system for assessing and improving models, going well beyond the usual system of peer review. Consequently, their conclusions should be entitled to considerable credence by courts and agencies.

• Model predictions cannot be taken as gospel. There is considerable residual uncertainty about climate change impacts that cannot be fully quantified. The uncertainties on the whole make climate change a more serious problem rather than providing a source of comfort. The policy process should be designed with this uncertainty in mind. For instance, rather than focusing on a single cost-benefit analysis for proposed regulatory actions, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), which oversees federal regulatory policy, might do better to require the development of standardized scenarios for agencies to use.

Page 33: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

The Polar Bear Problem

• The picture of polar bears in the sea motivated a lot of discussion about the Endangered Species Act ...– but, legal approaches have a difficult

path,cause and effect, who are the damaged and damaging parties, what laws are relevant ...

Polar Bear as Endangered Species

Page 34: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

So what are the legal pathways?

• Public nuisance• Clean Air Act• National Environmental Policy Act• Federal policy of pre-emption

– Less stringent federal regulations rather than more stringent state regulations

• Like tobacco liability litigation• Like gun liability litigation• Endangered Species Act

Page 35: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

National Environmental Quality Act (1969)

• Purpose• Sec. 2 [42 USC § 4321].• The purposes of this Act are: To declare a

national policy which will encourage productive and enjoyable harmony between man and his environment; to promote efforts which will prevent or eliminate damage to the environment and biosphere and stimulate the health and welfare of man; to enrich the understanding of the ecological systems and natural resources important to the Nation; and to establish a Council on Environmental Quality.

Page 36: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

What are the obstacles?

• Political Question / Judicial Competence– Court being asked, essentially, to make policy

• Standing– The ability to show particular, or personal

harm.

• Causation– Demonstration that a particular, say, power

plant or manufacturer has caused the harm

Page 37: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Law Readings on Local Servers

• Supreme Court: Massachusetts versus EPA• Sigman: Liability and Climate Policy• Massachusetts Petition to the U.S. Supreme Co

urt• US Govt Response to Massachusetts Petition• University of Pennsylvania Law Review (2007)

Page 38: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

A case that has formed a path into climate change

• Massachusetts versus US Environmental Protection Agency– Clean Air Act

Page 39: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Clean Air Act

• Relevant text of Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act” "The Administrator [of EPA] shall by regulation prescribe . . . standards applicable to the emission of any air pollutant from any class or classes of new motor vehicles or new motor vehicle engines, which in his judgment cause, or contribute to, air pollution which may reasonably be anticipated to endanger public health or welfare."

• Section 302(g) of the Clean Air Act defines "air pollutant" as "any air pollution agent or combination of such agents, including any physical . . . substance or matter which is emitted into or otherwise enters the ambient air."  302(h) states that "effects on welfare" include "effects on soils, water, crops, . . . wildlife, weather . . . and climate . . .”

Page 40: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

California and Clean Air Act

• When the Clean Air Act was written California was given the ability to make more stringent standards.– States can choose either the California

standard or the less stringent national standard

(A motivator for federal policy is often the existence of many state and local policies.)

Page 41: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Supreme Court Decision

• Supreme Court found in favor of Massachusetts– Had argued that they were threatened by sea level

rise.• There was standing.

– Had argued that carbon dioxide was a pollutant.• Supreme Court said carbon dioxide is a pollutant based on

the definition in the Clean Air Act.

– EPA did have the regulatory authority to regulate CO2.

Page 42: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Bush EPA Arguments

• That to control carbon dioxide from cars was an issue of efficiency, which was the sole domain of the Department of Transportation.

• That for the EPA to act would be a piecemeal approach to the problem, against the President’s wishes.

• That taking action on cars would have no real effect because of other sources of CO2, including China.

• That there was a political history that precluded EPA from acting.

Page 43: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Since then

• California Attorney General Petition to EPA– “Global warming threatens California's Sierra

mountain snow pack, which provides the state with one-third of its drinking water. California also has approximately 1,000 miles of coastline and levees that are threatened by rising sea levels.”

Page 44: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Since then

• 2008: EPA has not, formally, taken action, and even their own lawyers have been quoted in the press as saying that EPA is not on solid legal grounds for doing nothing.– A political decision.

• 2009: EPA Pressing using Clean Air Act to regulate CO

2

Page 45: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

More News

• 2009: 2 Days before Copenhagen– EPA Decides to Enforce

– How does U.S. Stake in Auto Industry impact this?

Page 46: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Even newer news

• 2010: Bipartisan Move to Block EPA Regulating CO2– Text of Joint Resolution

• 2011:– Forbes: EPA and Climate in Budget and

Government Shutdown– NY Times: State Greenhouse Gas Initiatives

Lose Fed Support

Page 47: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Law vs Policy

• Law, at least with U.S. EPA, leads to the idea of regulation.– In general, “people” prefer policy to regulation

business risk?

• Pushes towards regulation are deferred based on recession, recovery, political positioning

Page 48: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Where does litigation sit in the climate problem?

• Motivator for the development of policy.

• Law works on short-term and local scales.– Does not, often, extend to long-term and

global scales.• Deliberative, case-by-case

Page 49: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

An integrated picture?

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

KNOWLEDGE

UNCERTAINTY

CLIMATE SCIENCE

FragmentedPolicy

IMPACTS

INTEGRATEDIIMPACTS

?

LAW

POPULATION

CONSUMPTION

ENERGY

PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE

OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE

Page 50: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Subjects that need covering

• Stabilization

• Military

• Interface to adaptation

• Geo-engineering

Page 51: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Elements of the Political Argument

Page 52: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

PA1: Just a Theory

• A common statement is that greenhouse gas is just a theory, equating theory with conjecture.– Theory is not conjecture, it is testable.

• Theory suggests some amount of cause and effect – a physical system, governed by quantitative conservation equations.

– Theory is not fact, it can and will change.– Need to consider the uncertainty, and the plausibility that the theory

might be wrong.• Often it is stated in this discussion that gravity is only a theory.

– True, and the theory of gravity is a very useful theory, one put forth by Newton.

– True, we don’t exactly understand the true nature of the force of gravity, there are “why” questions.

– Formally, Newton’s theory of gravity is incorrect – that’s what Einstein did.

• Still, it is a very useful and very accurate theory, that allows us, for example, to always fall down and never fall up – and go to the Moon with some confidence.

Page 53: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

PA2: Greenhouse Effect

• This is generally not a strongly argued point. Warming of the surface due to greenhouse gases make the planet habitable.– Habitable? Water exists in all three phases?

• Water and carbon dioxide and methane are most important natural greenhouse gases.

• Often a point of argument that water is the “dominant” gas, so traces of CO2 cannot be important.– Water is dominant … often said 2/3 rds of warming. Because there is

so much water in the ocean, the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere is largely determined by temperature. (The relative humidity.)

– This is where it is important to remember the idea of balance, the climate is in balance, and it is differences from this balance which we have co-evolved with that are important.

• Burning fossil fuels is taking us away from this balance. It is like opening or closing a crack in the window … it makes a big difference.

Page 54: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

PA3: What happens to this CO2

• A “new” political argument: CO2 from fossil fuels is small compared to what comes from trees and ocean. True. But a lot goes into trees and oceans as well. So it is the excess CO2, the CO2 on the margin that comes from fossil fuel burning. Not all of this goes into the trees and oceans, and it accumulates in the atmosphere.

• There are 8.6 Petagrams C per year emitted– 3.5 Pg C stay in atmosphere– 2.3 Pg C go into the ocean– 3.0 Pg C go into the terrestrial ecosystems

• Terrestrial ecosystems sink needs far better quantification– Lal, Carbon Sequestration, PhilTransRoySoc 2008

• It’s a counting problem! One of our easier ones.

Page 55: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

PA4: Cycles

• Some say that there are cycles, they are natural, they are inevitable, they show that human have no influence.– Cycles? yes natural? Yes

• Inevitable There are forces beyond our control

– We can determine what causes cycle; they are not supernatural

• Greenhouse gases change• “Life” is involved ocean and land biology

• Humans are life This is the time humans release CO2

Page 56: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

PA4: Cycles CO2 and T

• At the turn around of the ice ages, temperature starts to go up before CO2; hence, T increase is unrelated to CO2

– Need to think about time and balance here …• There are sources of T and CO2 variability other than the

radiative greenhouse gas effect.– If CO2 increases in the atmosphere, there will be enhanced

surface warming, but is the increase large enough to change temperature beyond other sources of variability?

– If T increases, there could be CO2 increases associated with, for instance, release from solution in the ocean

– CO2 increases could come from burning fossil fuels, massive die off of trees, volcanoes have to count, know the balance.

Page 57: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

PA4: Cycles: Ice Ages

• In 1975 scientists were predicting an ice age. Now warming. You have no credibility, why should we believe you now.– In 1975, small number of papers got a lot of press

attention.– 2010 Think scientific method

• Observations, observations, observations• Improved theory, predictions, cause and effect• Results reproduced my many investigators, using many

independent sources of observations• Consistency of theory, prediction, and observations• Probability of alternative description is very small.

Page 58: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

The last 1000 years: The hockey stick

Surface temperature and CO2 data from the past 1000 years. Temperature is a northern hemisphere average. Temperature from several types of measurements are consistent in temporal behavior.

Medieval warm period

“Little ice age”

Temperature starts to follow CO2 as CO2 increases beyond approximately 300 ppm, the value seen in the previous graph as the upper range of variability in the past 350,000 years.

PA5:

Page 59: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

PA5: Hockey Stick

• This is the “hockey stick” figure and it is very controversial. Quality of data, presentation, manipulation, messaging.– Rood blog– Nature on Hockey Stick Controversy

• There are some issues with data, messaging, emotions of scientists here, but the data are, fundamentally, correct.

Page 60: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

PA5: Hockey Stick: Science

• But place the surface temperature record of the hockey stick in context using the scientific method.– Reproduction of results by independent researchers,

through independent analyses– Verification of results in other types of observations

sea level rise, ocean heat content, earlier start of spring

– Consistency of signals with theory upper tropospheric cooling

– Evaluation of alternative hypotheses

Page 61: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

PA5: Hockey Stick: Temperature source

• There has developed a discussion between those who believe in surface temperature data and those who believe in satellite data.– Scientifically, it should not be a matter of belief, but validation. Each

system has strengths and weaknesses. Differences should be reconciled, not held as proof of one over the other.

• Surface: Issues of how sited, representative, urban heat island– If ignored (wrong), then data flawed– If taken into account (right), then data are manipulted

• Satellite data objective and accurate?– Read the literature! Took years to get useful temperature. Every satellite is

different, calibrated with non-satellite data

• And ultimately: Scientific method– Reproduction of results by independent researchers, through

independent analyses– Verification of results in other types of observations – Consistency of signals with theory – Evaluation of alternative hypotheses

Page 62: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Projects

Page 63: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Use of climate information

• Research on the use of climate knowledge states that for successful projects, for example:– Co-development / Co-generation– Trust– Narratives– Scale

• Spatial• Temporal

Lemos and Morehouse, 2005

Page 64: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Projects

• Broad subjects and teams defined• Meeting 1 with Rood

– Now to early March: Project vision and goals

• Meeting 2 with Rood– Mid to late March: Progress report, refinement of goals if needed

• Class review– Short, informal presentation, external review and possible

coordination

• Oral Presentation: April 10 and 12• Final written report: April 25

Page 65: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Project Teams

• Education / Denial– Allison Caine– Nayiri Haroutunian– Elizabeth McBride– Michelle Reicher

Page 66: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Project Teams

• Regional– Emily Basham– Catherine Kent– Sarah Schwimmer– James Toth– Nicholas Fantin

Page 67: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Project Teams

• City– Jian Wei Ang– Erin Dagg– Caroline Kinstle– Heather Lucier

Page 68: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Project Teams

• University– Nathan Hamet– Adam Schneider– Jillian Talaski– Victor Vardan

Page 69: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

glisaclimate.org

• Goal to facilitate problem solving– Based on class experience – Support narratives– Build templates for problem solving

Page 70: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Approach to Problem Solving

Page 71: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Granularity

• No matter how we cut through this problem we come to the conclusion that there is a lot of granularity within the problem. This granularity represents complexity, which must be used to develop a portfolio of solutions rather than to classify the problem as intractable.

Page 72: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

The previous viewgraphs have introduced “granularity”

• This is a classic short-term versus long-term problem.– Ethics– Economics– Reaction versus anticipation

• Similarly, regional versus global• Rich and poor• Competing approaches

– Mitigation versus adaptation– Transportation versus Electrical Generation– This versus that

Page 73: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

We arrive at levels of granularity

TEMPORAL

NEAR-TERM LONG-TERM

SPATIAL

LOCAL

GLOBAL

WEALTH

Small scales inform large scales.Large scales inform small scales.

Need to introduce spatial scales as well

Sandvik: Wealth and Climate Change

Page 74: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

What is short-term and long-term?

25 years 50 years 75 years 100 years0 years

ENERGY SECURITY

ECONOMYCLIMATE CHANGE

Pose that time scales for addressing climate change as a society are best defined by human dimensions. Length of infrastructure investment, accumulation of wealth over a lifetime, ...

LONGSHORT

There are short-term issues important to climate change.

Election time scales

Page 75: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Structure of Problem Solving(http://glisaclimate.org/home )

Page 76: Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu.

Knowledge Generation Reduction

Disciplinary

Problem Solving UnificationIntegration

Complexity challenges disciplinary intuition

• The details of the problem often de-correlate pieces of the problem.– What do I mean? Think about heat waves?

• This challenges the intuition of disciplined-based experts, and the ability to generalize.– For example --- Detroit is like Chicago.

• The consideration of the system as a whole causes tensions – trade offs - optimization