Climate change, Agrobiodiversity and livelihoods in Indian Himalaya Himalaya: biodiversity hotspot and global environmental significance Climate change:

Climate change, Agrobiodiversity and livelihoods in Indian Himalaya

• Himalaya: biodiversity hotspot and global environmental significance

• Climate change: scientific and farmers’ worldviews

• Strengths, weaknesses and scope of building on indigenous agricultural systems

Agricultural systems: the diversity

Policy changes over time

• 1894 – Forest Policy: serve the agricultural interests more directly than at present

• 1952: The solution to food problem primarily by intensive cultivation and not by weakening the very basis of national existence by encroaching upon forests

• 1988: Discourage diversion of productive agricultural lands to forestry in view of the need for increased food production

• 1992: National Policy Statement on Environment and Development

• 2003-2006: Biodiversity conservation and climate change: Biodiversity Action Plan, Biodiversity Act, National Communication to UNFCC

• 2008- Tribal (Forest Rights) Bill, Biodiversity Management at Village Level, Decentralization of Authority, Climate change action plan

Climate change trends: scientific worldview

• Global warming : 1.0 to 7.5 deg C• India: 0.4 to 2 deg C per 100 years; increase in max temp• Contrasting trends from different models in Greater Trans

Himalaya• Warming based on models and long term climate data

analysis – no warming from dendrochronology• -6-8% in rainfall in north-east and +10-12% in west• +2 deg C and +7% precipitation: the ‘best guess’• Sporadic extreme events ???

Uncertainty/low precison of predictions/complexity of climate change; urgent global corrective strategies and policies

Climate change trends: farmers’ worldview

• Feel warming but fail to quantify rates: decline in area and duration of snow

• Good climate: low rainfall in March-May, peak monsoon in July-August, moderate rainfall/heavy snowfall in December-January, absence of cloud bursts, with uncertainty/unpredictability of the date of onset of monsoon and high rainfall events, drought/flood years – changes in the trend

• High elevation villages more prone to abnormally high precipitation, mid elevation villages to low precipitation and foot hill villages to both types of events

• Bad climate in both cropping seasons in a year very rareLiving with uncertainty: autonomous rather planned

adaptations

Associated (natural ecosystems) and planned biodiversity (crops)

• Protection of agricultural land and dwellings from run-off and wildlife

• Recharge of springs (drinking water) and streams (irrigation water)

• Availability of livestock feed and FYM

• Availability of NTFPs crucial for livelihood

• Cultural values

2007 (Flood Year 1620 mm) 2008 (Drought Year 920 mm)

050

100150200250300350400450500

May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Rain

fall

(mm

)

2007

2008

Spatio-temporal variation in climate

• North-eastern India: 2007 flood year and 2008 drought year

• Central Himalaya: 2007 - low rainfall in monsoon crop season and high rainfall in winter season; 2008 – high rainfall in monsoon crop season and low rainfall in winter crop seaon

0

100

200

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600

NO

R 0

7F

NO

R 0

8F

KDC

07F

KDC

08F

DR

U 0

7F

DR

U 0

8F

LEI 0

7F

LEI 0

8F

SAN

07F

SAN

08F

TOL

07F

TOL

08F

KHU

07F

KHU

08F

MAN

07F

MAN

08F

Gra

in b

iom

ass

(g/m

2)

SOC: higher in drought year: 4 % in KDC, 10-15% in NOR, LEI, SAN, TOL, MAN, 16-18% in DRU, KHU

0

500

1000

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2500

2007

2008

2007

2008

2007

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2008

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2007

2008

2007

2008

C.caj V.mun V.ang

G.max G.sp V.ung M.uni E.cor

Bio

mas

s (g

/m2)

Roots Stems Leaves Fruits

Crop diversity by stress tolerance and economic value

Economic value Stress tolerance

Maize, soybean, wheat, common cash crops

High Low

Fingermillet, Barnyard millet, Barley

Low High

Horsegram and Sesame

High High

Managing the risks: village landscape scale

Uncertainty of rainfall

Cultivating distant fields

Homegarden Negligible Negligible

Rainfed crop system

High High

Rainfed agroforestry system

High Low

Irrigated crop system

Low High

Shifting agriculture Low Low

Farmers’ observations about global warming induced changes

• Feasibility of potato and cauliflower cultivation in higher elevations

• Emergence of defoliators of Amaranths in higher elevations

• Early flowering and maturity of winter crops• Decline in apple/other temperate fruit yields• Early flowering of Rhododendron arboreum• Early fruit ripening in Prunus cerasoides• Increase in dominance of Bauhinia vahlii twining around

Pinus roxburghii• Wild species not as much sensitive to climatic variability

as domesticated species

Changes in agrobiodiversity and management practices: socio-economic driving factors and implications

FYM/Fodder 1100 –1850 m 1963 1993

1850-2400m 1963 1993

2400-2600m 1963 1993

Manure input 15.0 16.5 18.3 27.4 16.8 32.4 Fodder yield 5.0 4.3 3.3 2.1 1.5 0.2 Monetary return 21.3 34.2 27.9 52.5 36.8 77.3

Crop Soil loss

(kg ha-1)

Run-off

(m3 ha-1)

Amaranth

Barnyard millet

Fingermillet

Paddy

Potato

4250

2872

2300

3279

18080

798

324

301

491

1371

Least significant difference

(P = 0.05)

2320 261

Soil loss and run-off (n = 5 plots) from rainy season crops grown in Pranmati watershed, central Himalaya, India.

Homegardens are richer in SOC (+) compared to forests

00.40.81.21.6

22.42.8

RA HG PF OFSo

il o

rgan

ic c

arb

on

(%

)

0-10 cm 10-20 cm 20-50 cm 50-100 cm Mean

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

RA HG PF OF

To

tal

Kja

ldh

al N

(%

)

0-10 cm 10-20 cm 20-50 cm 50-100 cm Mean

0

0.0002

0.0004

0.0006

0.0008

0.001

0.0012

RA HG PF OF

Av

ail

ab

le P

(%

)

0-10 cm 10-20 cm 20-50 cm 50-100 cm Mean

0

0.0002

0.0004

0.0006

0.0008

0.001

0.0012

RA HG PF OF

Av

ail

ab

le P

(%

)

0-10 cm 10-20 cm 20-50 cm 50-100 cm Mean

Basal area of well management agroforestry systems comparable to forests

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Lopping regime

Gra

in y

ield

(kg h

a-1)

WheatMustardLentil

Yield of winter season crops grown under unlopped and 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% lopping of agroforestry trees in village Banswara, India. LSD (P=0.05) between means of a crop grown under different lopping regimes are given as vertical lines.

Important characteristics (mean standard deviation, n = 5) of oak-based and pine-based organic manure.

Manure type Characteristic Oak Pine

Moisture (%) 226.21 19.21 303.50 20.50 Carbon (%) 24.66 0.58 33.33 0.58 Nitrogen (%) 1.40 0.03 1.16 0.03 Cellulose (%) 12.33 0.57 17.00 2.64 Lignin (%) 14.01 1.05 17.33 0.29 Polyphenol (%) 0.32 0.04 0.37 0.03 C/N 17.68 1.25 28.73 0.48 Lignin / N 10.04 0.71 14.94 0.25 Polyphenol + Lignin/Nirtogen

10.26 0.72 15.26 0.25

Carbon sequestration rate (t ha-1 yr-1) in soil and vegetation after rehabilitation in a low altitude village (Banswara, Chamoli) and a high altitude village (Khaljhuni, Almora ) villages in Indian Central Himalaya. Characteristics Carbon sequestration Banswara Khaljhuni

Soil (0-15 cm) 2.2 3.4 Tree bole/bamboo culm

0.9 4.3

Total 3.1 7.7

A high degree of variability – by season, within and between site – differences in belowground community not as marked as

in the aboveground community

-2

-1

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-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4

DCA axis 1

HG

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PF

OF

-3

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-2 -1 0 1 2 3

DCA axis 1

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OF

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-1

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DCA axis 1

DC

A a

xis

2 HG

RA

PF

OF

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

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1.5

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-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4

DCA axis 1

DC

A a

xis

2 HG

RA

PF

OF

Pre-monsoon Monsoon

Post-monsoon Annual average

New crops – Medicinal Species

• Growth of Aconitum spp not limited by low CO2-low temperature conditions

• Warming stimulated growth of Allium stracheyi, Arnebia benthamii and Dactylorrhiza hatagirea and depressed growth of Angelica glauca and Rheum emodi, the coexisting alpine species

• Upward movements of vegetation belts: temperature pull, earth surface processes, edaphic controls and species attributes

Socio-cultural capital favoring sustainability

• Community pressure for proper management of agricultural land with local labour, village level food self-sufficiency and exchange of seeds without any monetary consideration

• Catastrophes if livelihood based on timber trade • Income from non-timber forest products permissible only

to weaker sections but subsistence uses to all • Limits to forest resource utilization and access to groups

of families and not individuals• Sacred forests around hill tops and streams• Accommodating people suffering from natural hazards

and disasters

Identify changes and trace their driving factors (climate change)

(6) (7)

(8) (1)

(2) (3) (7)

(5) (4) (1) Large scale outmigration in highly inaccessible location. (2) New apportunities of income due to improved accessibility. (3) Socio-cultural change from subsistence to market economy (4) Population pressure /land scarcity. (5) Incentive for settled agriculture. (6) Large scale cutting due to road construction/other development activities. (7) Improvement to accessibility. (8) Weak enforcement of policy.

Cutting isolated trees

Dense Natural forest

Wet paddy cultivation in valley/flatland

Shifting cultivation longer cycles >10years

Open forests

Toko/orange/bamboo/timber plantation.

Conversion of fallows to plantation

Shifting cultivation

shorter cycle 7-8 years

Wet paddy cultivation on terrace slopes

Reduction in area under

shifting agriculture

Replacement of

millets by paddy

For sustainability through cooperation and collaboration

• Consistent and unambiguous definitions for effective communication, comparisons and synthesis

• Unifying, standard and globally agreed methodology

• Critical and threshold values

Policy

Knowledge Behaviour

Capacity building