Chukchi Sea and Beaufort Sea Weather Research and Forecasting WRF Mesoscale Meteorology Model Mid-Term Project Meeting Funded by Bureau of Ocean Energy.

Chukchi Sea and Beaufort Sea Weather Research and Forecasting WRF

Mesoscale Meteorology Model

Mid-Term Project Meeting

Funded byFunded by Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Regulation Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Regulation

and Enforcement (BOEMRE)and Enforcement (BOEMRE)

BOEMRE Project Manager BOEMRE Project Manager Warren HorowitzWarren Horowitz

Lead Conducting OrganizationLead Conducting OrganizationInternational Arctic Research Center (UAF)International Arctic Research Center (UAF)

BOEMRE Need for WRF Mesoscale BOEMRE Need for WRF Mesoscale Meteorological Model Meteorological Model DevelopmentDevelopment

There are fundamental unknowns in There are fundamental unknowns in our understanding of circulation and our understanding of circulation and the forcing mechanism associated the forcing mechanism associated with the Beaufort and Chukchi shelf’s with the Beaufort and Chukchi shelf’s dynamics and ability to predict dynamics and ability to predict pollutant transport and dispersal. pollutant transport and dispersal. (Modified from MMS Beaufort Sea (Modified from MMS Beaufort Sea Physical Oceanography Workshop)Physical Oceanography Workshop)

Study ObjectiveStudy Objective

• To achieve more accurate along To achieve more accurate along shore and cross shelf wind gradients shore and cross shelf wind gradients for wind velocities, direction, for wind velocities, direction, temperature, and other significant temperature, and other significant surface environmental variables.surface environmental variables.

Study ObjectiveStudy Objective

To improve our understanding of the To improve our understanding of the mesoscale meteorology of the Chukchi and mesoscale meteorology of the Chukchi and Beaufort seas to include a better Beaufort seas to include a better understanding of the sea breeze and understanding of the sea breeze and orographic impacts with the ultimate goal to orographic impacts with the ultimate goal to ensure a more accurate simulation of ocean ensure a more accurate simulation of ocean circulation models, oil spill trajectories, and circulation models, oil spill trajectories, and future improvements of our Oil Spill future improvements of our Oil Spill Resource Assessments (OSRA) for the Resource Assessments (OSRA) for the Alaska OCS. Alaska OCS.

Study ProgressStudy Progress

• WRF Mesoscale Meteorological Model for WRF Mesoscale Meteorological Model for the Beaufort and Chukchi seas. (2009 WRF the Beaufort and Chukchi seas. (2009 WRF model run)model run)

• Comprehensive surface observational Comprehensive surface observational database encompassing the WRF model database encompassing the WRF model domain. (QA/QC, summary statistics, domain. (QA/QC, summary statistics, climate) (draft completed)climate) (draft completed)

• Collection of field data from offshore Collection of field data from offshore meteorological buoys. (Completed 2009)meteorological buoys. (Completed 2009)

• Compare model, surf observations, and Compare model, surf observations, and collected buoy data (Ongoing)collected buoy data (Ongoing)

Study ProgressStudy Progress (Cont.) (Cont.)

Hindcast WRF Mesoscale Model/ ClimatologyHindcast WRF Mesoscale Model/ Climatology• Define seasonal variability and long term trends Define seasonal variability and long term trends

by conducting a long-term hindcast simulation by conducting a long-term hindcast simulation with the optimized data-modeling system 1979-with the optimized data-modeling system 1979-2009. (2009, this meeting)2009. (2009, this meeting)

• Document the high-resolution climatological Document the high-resolution climatological features of the Beaufort/Chukchi seas surface features of the Beaufort/Chukchi seas surface winds, including an analysis of the inter-annual winds, including an analysis of the inter-annual variability and long-term change, as well as the variability and long-term change, as well as the physical processes and mechanisms for shaping physical processes and mechanisms for shaping the Beaufort/Chukchi seas wind field climatology the Beaufort/Chukchi seas wind field climatology (1979-2009). (2009, this meeting)(1979-2009). (2009, this meeting)

Interim and Final Products from Interim and Final Products from this Studythis Study

• Five Year WRF Production Simulation Five Year WRF Production Simulation (Estimated spring 2011)(Estimated spring 2011)

• Final Observational Database (Estimated Final Observational Database (Estimated spring 2011)spring 2011)

• Final 30 Year WRF Model Simulation Final 30 Year WRF Model Simulation (Estimated Fall/Winter 2011(Estimated Fall/Winter 2011

• Final Climate Analysis from WRF 30 Year Final Climate Analysis from WRF 30 Year Model Run (2012)Model Run (2012)

• Final Report and Journal Article (2012)Final Report and Journal Article (2012)

Deployment of the BOEMRE Deployment of the BOEMRE Surface Meteorological Buoy Surface Meteorological Buoy in the Beaufort Sea August 5- in the Beaufort Sea August 5-

September 14, 2009September 14, 2009

Schematic of surface met Schematic of surface met buoybuoy