Chapter 10: National Security PS130 World Politics Michael R. Baysdell Saginaw Valley State University.

Chapter 10: National Chapter 10: National SecuritySecurity

PS130 World PoliticsPS130 World Politics

Michael R. BaysdellMichael R. Baysdell

Saginaw Valley State Saginaw Valley State UniversityUniversity

Defense: United StatesDefense: United States

19% of United States Federal Budget19% of United States Federal Budget 1.4 Million active duty in 5 services1.4 Million active duty in 5 services 1.2 Million reserve1.2 Million reserve Joint Chiefs of Staff report to PresidentJoint Chiefs of Staff report to President Volunteer Military with registrationVolunteer Military with registration Between 1700 and 2200 nuclear warheads Between 1700 and 2200 nuclear warheads NATO MemberNATO Member Committed by Treaty to also defend Japan, Committed by Treaty to also defend Japan,

South Korea, Australia, OASSouth Korea, Australia, OAS

Mandatory and Discretionary Mandatory and Discretionary SpendingSpending

Mandatory spendingMandatory spending refers to money that refers to money that lawmakers are required lawmakers are required by law to spend on by law to spend on certain programs or to certain programs or to use for interest payments use for interest payments on the national debt. on the national debt. Includes Social Security, Includes Social Security, Income Security, Income Security, Medicare, Debt Interest, Medicare, Debt Interest, Veterans benefitsVeterans benefits

Discretionary spendingDiscretionary spending is is spending about which spending about which government planners can government planners can make choices. VERY make choices. VERY small!! (Education, small!! (Education, Employment, Social Employment, Social Services, Transportation, Services, Transportation, Justice, EnvironmentJustice, Environment

Administration of JusticeAdministration of Justice

HealthHealth

MedicareMedicare

Income securityIncome security

Social SecuritySocial Security

Veteran’s benefitsVeteran’s benefits

OtherOther

Net interestNet interest

DefenseDefense

Science, space and Science, space and technologytechnology

Energy, natural Energy, natural resources,&environmentresources,&environment

AgricultureAgriculture

TransportationTransportation

EducationEducation

Note: Because of rounding, totals may be less or greater than 100%.Note: Because of rounding, totals may be less or greater than 100%.Source: Source: Statistical Abstract of the United StatesStatistical Abstract of the United States

2%2%

1%1%

2.5%2.5%

2%2%0.7%0.7%

1%1%1%1%

15%15%16%16%

3%3%

8%8%

12%12%

14%14%

23%23%

Federal SpendingFederal Spending

History of Defense Dep’tHistory of Defense Dep’t

1789: Department of the Army1789: Department of the Army 1789: Department of the Navy1789: Department of the Navy Merged 1947, into Department of Merged 1947, into Department of

Defense under 1 civilian secretaryDefense under 1 civilian secretary 2002: NorthCom created to partially 2002: NorthCom created to partially

overrule Posse Comitatus Act of 1878overrule Posse Comitatus Act of 1878 2003: Department of Homeland Security2003: Department of Homeland Security 2006: National Missile Defense activated2006: National Missile Defense activated

Recent U.S. Military Recent U.S. Military DeploymentsDeployments

US has used force in history over 200 times, from small covert US has used force in history over 200 times, from small covert actions to World War IIactions to World War II

1983: Grenada1983: Grenada 1986: Libya (1981/86 shootdowns; 86 attack after nightclub 1986: Libya (1981/86 shootdowns; 86 attack after nightclub

bombing, led to Pan-Am 103)bombing, led to Pan-Am 103) 1989: Panama1989: Panama 1990-91: Persian Gulf War1990-91: Persian Gulf War 1993: Somalia1993: Somalia 1995: Bosnia1995: Bosnia 1999: Kosovo1999: Kosovo 2001: Afghanistan2001: Afghanistan 2003: Iraq2003: Iraq 2005: Liberia 2005: Liberia

Current Issues in DefenseCurrent Issues in Defense

Preemption strategyPreemption strategy IraqIraq Draft—highly unlikely; not favored Draft—highly unlikely; not favored

by Pentagonby Pentagon New threat: TerrorismNew threat: Terrorism

U.S. Membership in U.S. Membership in OrganizationsOrganizations

United Nations, 1945 (World Bank, United Nations, 1945 (World Bank, IMF WHO, all UN organizations exc. IMF WHO, all UN organizations exc. ICC)ICC)

Rio Treaty leads to OAS, 1947Rio Treaty leads to OAS, 1947 NATO, 1949NATO, 1949 ANZUS, 1951 (New Zealand inactive)ANZUS, 1951 (New Zealand inactive) SEATO now deadSEATO now dead NAFTA w/Canada and MexicoNAFTA w/Canada and Mexico

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War: The Human RecordWar: The Human Record War is as ancient as humanityWar is as ancient as humanity

– Increase in frequency: almost 1,000 wars Increase in frequency: almost 1,000 wars during the last millenniumduring the last millennium

– 30% of all wars have occurred in last 200 30% of all wars have occurred in last 200 yearsyears

Severity also on the riseSeverity also on the rise– 75% of all war deaths have occurred since 75% of all war deaths have occurred since

19001900– Continued threat of nuclear warContinued threat of nuclear war

Lower percentage of countries involved in Lower percentage of countries involved in international conflict– higher percentage of international conflict– higher percentage of countries involved in civil conflictscountries involved in civil conflicts Concept of a “just war”Concept of a “just war”

““Just Wars”—St. AugustineJust Wars”—St. Augustine

Just wars are usually defined as those Just wars are usually defined as those which avenge injuries, when the nation or which avenge injuries, when the nation or city against which warlike action is to be city against which warlike action is to be directed has neglected either to punish directed has neglected either to punish wrongs committed by its own citizens or to wrongs committed by its own citizens or to restore what has been unjustly taken by it. restore what has been unjustly taken by it.

Further, that kind of war is undoubtedly Further, that kind of war is undoubtedly just which God Himself ordains.“just which God Himself ordains.“

Analysis of some recent conflictsAnalysis of some recent conflicts

What Causes War?What Causes War?

Dissatisfied with status quo (Hitler and Versailles Treaty)Dissatisfied with status quo (Hitler and Versailles Treaty) Nationalism/JingoismNationalism/Jingoism Self-defenseSelf-defense Collective self-defense/Help a helpless 3Collective self-defense/Help a helpless 3rdrd party party Perception of leaders (Galtieri, Hussein)Perception of leaders (Galtieri, Hussein) Preemptory strikes more effective, self-defense implications (Bush 43 and Iraq)Preemptory strikes more effective, self-defense implications (Bush 43 and Iraq) ReligionReligion Conquest (outlawed by UN Charter)Conquest (outlawed by UN Charter) Parity—both sides are evenly matched and think it would be possible to beat the Parity—both sides are evenly matched and think it would be possible to beat the

otherother Preponderance—one side really believes it can clean the other side’s clockPreponderance—one side really believes it can clean the other side’s clock Xenophobia—fear of foreigners (unites citizens)Xenophobia—fear of foreigners (unites citizens) No single root cause of warNo single root cause of war Each level of analysis sheds some light on the question of why we fightEach level of analysis sheds some light on the question of why we fight

– System-levelSystem-level– State-levelState-level– Individual-levelIndividual-level

What Promotes Peace?What Promotes Peace?

Interdependence—if you really need Interdependence—if you really need something from the other state, you something from the other state, you can’t risk warcan’t risk war

Alliances—collective security Alliances—collective security mechanisms make aggressors less mechanisms make aggressors less likely to attacklikely to attack

Communication (Prisoner’s Dilemma Communication (Prisoner’s Dilemma hampers)hampers)

Prisoner’s dilemmaPrisoner’s dilemma Two prisoners are accused of a crime.Two prisoners are accused of a crime. If one confesses and the other does not, the one who confesses will If one confesses and the other does not, the one who confesses will

be released immediately and the other will spend 20 years in prison. be released immediately and the other will spend 20 years in prison. If neither confesses, each will be released. If neither confesses, each will be released. If both confess, they will each be jailed 5 years. If both confess, they will each be jailed 5 years. They cannot communicate with one anotherThey cannot communicate with one another. . Given that neither prisoner knows whether the other has confessed, it Given that neither prisoner knows whether the other has confessed, it

is in the self-interest of each to confess himself. is in the self-interest of each to confess himself. Paradoxically, when each prisoner pursues his self-interest, both end Paradoxically, when each prisoner pursues his self-interest, both end

up worse off than they would have been had they acted otherwiseup worse off than they would have been had they acted otherwise Demonstrates how many conflicts are caused by system-level factors, Demonstrates how many conflicts are caused by system-level factors,

although all 3 levels of analysis offer insight into why war happensalthough all 3 levels of analysis offer insight into why war happens

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System-Level Causes of System-Level Causes of WarWar Distribution of powerDistribution of power

– Number of poles and their relative powerNumber of poles and their relative power Anarchical nature of the systemAnarchical nature of the system

– Self-help system creates a tension-filled cycle Self-help system creates a tension-filled cycle of escalating arms -> tensions -> arms -> of escalating arms -> tensions -> arms -> tensionstensions

Economic factorsEconomic factors– Global patterns of production and use of Global patterns of production and use of

natural resourcesnatural resources– Increasing gap between rich and poorIncreasing gap between rich and poor

Biosphere stressBiosphere stress– Limited resources, such as water or oilLimited resources, such as water or oil

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State-Level Causes of WarState-Level Causes of War MilitarismMilitarism

– Belief that the nature of modern politics has deep Belief that the nature of modern politics has deep military rootsmilitary roots

Externalization of internal conflictExternalization of internal conflict– Diversionary war: When governments try to Diversionary war: When governments try to

consolidate their power by fomenting tensions with consolidate their power by fomenting tensions with other countriesother countries

Type of countryType of country– Nature of political structure (authoritarian versus Nature of political structure (authoritarian versus

democratic) and economic resourcesdemocratic) and economic resources Political CulturePolitical Culture

– Influence of the historical experiences and religious Influence of the historical experiences and religious beliefs that construct the national identitybeliefs that construct the national identity

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Individual-Level Causes of Individual-Level Causes of WarWar

Human CharacteristicsHuman Characteristics– Instinctual human behaviors, such as Instinctual human behaviors, such as

territorialityterritoriality– Human aggression stemming from Human aggression stemming from

stress, anxiety, or frustrationstress, anxiety, or frustration Individual LeadersIndividual Leaders

– Importance of individual personalities:Importance of individual personalities: Risk-taker or cautious conservativeRisk-taker or cautious conservative Influence of individual experiences and Influence of individual experiences and

emotionsemotions

Lessons from ByzantiumLessons from Byzantium Edward Luttwak, who says he has studied Byzantine documents and other Edward Luttwak, who says he has studied Byzantine documents and other

writings for two decades, advises Americans to learn 7 lessons from writings for two decades, advises Americans to learn 7 lessons from Byzantium. They are:Byzantium. They are:

1. Avoid war by every possible means ... but always act as if war might start 1. Avoid war by every possible means ... but always act as if war might start at anytime. ... Train intensively and be ready for battle at all times.at anytime. ... Train intensively and be ready for battle at all times.

2. Gather intelligence on the enemy and his mentality, and monitor his 2. Gather intelligence on the enemy and his mentality, and monitor his actions continuously.actions continuously.

3. Campaign vigorously, both offensively and defensively, but avoid battles, 3. Campaign vigorously, both offensively and defensively, but avoid battles, especially large-scale battles.especially large-scale battles.

4. Replace the battle of attrition and occupation of countries with maneuver 4. Replace the battle of attrition and occupation of countries with maneuver warfare -- lightning strikes and offensive raids to disrupt enemies.warfare -- lightning strikes and offensive raids to disrupt enemies.

5. Strive to end wars successfully by recruiting allies to change the balance of 5. Strive to end wars successfully by recruiting allies to change the balance of power. Diplomacy is even more important during war than peace.power. Diplomacy is even more important during war than peace.

6. Subversion is the cheapest path to victory. So cheap, in fact, as compared 6. Subversion is the cheapest path to victory. So cheap, in fact, as compared with the risks and costs of battle that it must always be attempted. ... with the risks and costs of battle that it must always be attempted. ... Remember: Even religious fanatics can be bribed.Remember: Even religious fanatics can be bribed.

7. When diplomacy and subversion are not enough and fighting is 7. When diplomacy and subversion are not enough and fighting is unavoidable, use methods and tactics that exploit enemy weaknesses, avoid unavoidable, use methods and tactics that exploit enemy weaknesses, avoid consuming combat forces, and patiently whittle down the enemy's strength."consuming combat forces, and patiently whittle down the enemy's strength."

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Effectiveness of Force: Effectiveness of Force: Evaluating Evaluating Its Success by Utilitarian StandardsIts Success by Utilitarian Standards

Measurement:Measurement:– Cost/benefit analysisCost/benefit analysis

What are the trade-offs?What are the trade-offs? No objective way to measure the costs of No objective way to measure the costs of

loss of human life, human anguish, and loss of human life, human anguish, and economic destructioneconomic destruction

– Goal attainmentGoal attainment Were the goals rational and legitimate to Were the goals rational and legitimate to

begin with?begin with?

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Conditions for the Successful Use of Conditions for the Successful Use of ForceForce

Clearly defined, long-standing, and previously demonstrated commitmentClearly defined, long-standing, and previously demonstrated commitment Strong commitments, publicly announced by leadersStrong commitments, publicly announced by leaders Military force used to counter other military force, not to control political Military force used to counter other military force, not to control political

eventsevents Force used early and decisively instead of through extended threatening Force used early and decisively instead of through extended threatening

and slow escalationand slow escalation Clearly established goalsClearly established goals Secure domestic support for actions and goalsSecure domestic support for actions and goals Develop a plausible exit strategy to avoid endless entanglementDevelop a plausible exit strategy to avoid endless entanglement Use overwhelming force, get in and get outUse overwhelming force, get in and get out Powell Doctrine (named after U.S. General Colin Powell during the run-up Powell Doctrine (named after U.S. General Colin Powell during the run-up

to the Persian Gulf War in 1990-91) to the Persian Gulf War in 1990-91) Powell Doctrine asserted that all of these above conditions must be Powell Doctrine asserted that all of these above conditions must be present to achieve military and political success when using armed present to achieve military and political success when using armed forcesforces

Opponents of the Iraq War claim Bush administration failed to follow Opponents of the Iraq War claim Bush administration failed to follow several principles of Powell Doctrine in launching war against Iraq in 2003 several principles of Powell Doctrine in launching war against Iraq in 2003 and the military occupation of the country through 2007.and the military occupation of the country through 2007.

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The Changing Nature of The Changing Nature of WarWar

Technology has increased killing power--Civil War Minie Technology has increased killing power--Civil War Minie Ball and Ironclads changed war worldwideBall and Ironclads changed war worldwide

Nationalism has increased numbers and intensity of Nationalism has increased numbers and intensity of warswars

Technology and nationalism have expanded scope of Technology and nationalism have expanded scope of warwar

More expensiveMore expensive More diverse population now participates, suffersMore diverse population now participates, suffers More civilian casualtiesMore civilian casualties Strategy has changedStrategy has changed

– Power to defeat is the traditional goalPower to defeat is the traditional goal– Power to hurt increasingly importantPower to hurt increasingly important

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Classifying WarfareClassifying Warfare

Offensive versus defensive:Offensive versus defensive:– Not always this simpleNot always this simple

Mutual-responsibility warfare (World War I mobilization)Mutual-responsibility warfare (World War I mobilization) Description of World War I situationDescription of World War I situation Where does preemptive war fit?Where does preemptive war fit? Legitimacy of Bush Doctrine justifying preemptive war in Legitimacy of Bush Doctrine justifying preemptive war in

Iraq in 2003 hotly debatedIraq in 2003 hotly debated

Four categories of international conflict:Four categories of international conflict:– TerrorismTerrorism– Unconventional forceUnconventional force– Conventional forceConventional force– Weapons of mass destructionWeapons of mass destruction

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TerrorismTerrorism

No widely accepted definition of terrorismNo widely accepted definition of terrorism Terrorism is best understood as:Terrorism is best understood as:

– a form of political violencea form of political violence– carried out by individuals, by NGOs, or by relatively small carried out by individuals, by NGOs, or by relatively small

groups of covert government agentsgroups of covert government agents– specifically targeting civiliansspecifically targeting civilians– using clandestine attack methodsusing clandestine attack methods– having the power to harm people and create fear by targeting having the power to harm people and create fear by targeting

civilians an damaging facilities, and systems involved in civilians an damaging facilities, and systems involved in transportation, trade, and energy production. transportation, trade, and energy production.

– as an effort to influence domestic and global politics and the as an effort to influence domestic and global politics and the foreign policies of targeted nationforeign policies of targeted nation

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Important Objections to This Important Objections to This Understanding of TerrorismUnderstanding of Terrorism

Can noble ends justify terrorist means?Can noble ends justify terrorist means?– In other words, is one man’s terrorist In other words, is one man’s terrorist

another man’s freedom fighter?another man’s freedom fighter?– Do the ends ever justify the means?Do the ends ever justify the means?– How important is the intent?How important is the intent?

Can actions taken by uniformed military Can actions taken by uniformed military force be classified as terrorism?force be classified as terrorism?– When are military actions not acceptable, When are military actions not acceptable,

under any circumstances?under any circumstances?

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Sources of TerrorismSources of Terrorism

State terrorism:State terrorism:• Carried out directly Carried out directly

by an established by an established government; government; clandestine clandestine operatorsoperators

• National National governments and governments and leaders are held leaders are held responsibleresponsible

Transnational Transnational terrorism:terrorism:

• Carried out by Carried out by international international nongovernmental nongovernmental groupsgroups

• al Qaeda most famous al Qaeda most famous exampleexample

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Terrorist Weapons and Terrorist Weapons and TacticsTactics

Conventional weapons of terrorism:Conventional weapons of terrorism:– Many terrorist attacks still use guns and bombsMany terrorist attacks still use guns and bombs– 9/11 tactics fit this category9/11 tactics fit this category– Suicide car , truck, and body carrying bombs and explosives Suicide car , truck, and body carrying bombs and explosives

targeting public transportation systems and "soft targets" such as targeting public transportation systems and "soft targets" such as discothequesdiscotheques

Radiological terrorism:Radiological terrorism:– The use of nuclear weapons is unlikely, but the use of a “dirty The use of nuclear weapons is unlikely, but the use of a “dirty

bomb” or destroying a nuclear power plant are much more realisticbomb” or destroying a nuclear power plant are much more realistic

Chemical and biological terrorism:Chemical and biological terrorism:– Need to be concerned: Chemical weapons have been used before Need to be concerned: Chemical weapons have been used before

(Tokyo subway)(Tokyo subway)– Need to remain calm: Increased awareness, vigilance, and security Need to remain calm: Increased awareness, vigilance, and security

measures with this form of terrorism in recent yearsmeasures with this form of terrorism in recent years

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Causes of TerrorismCauses of Terrorism

System-level analysis:System-level analysis:– Product of the global unequal distribution of Product of the global unequal distribution of

wealthwealth State-level analysis:State-level analysis:

– Result of national alliances that breed tensionResult of national alliances that breed tension Individual-level of analysis:Individual-level of analysis:

– Driven by human nature, by psychology, and by Driven by human nature, by psychology, and by an individual’s personal experiencesan individual’s personal experiences

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Causes of Terrorism, Causes of Terrorism, continuedcontinued

Terrorism continues because it is effective Terrorism continues because it is effective and is often seen as the only optionand is often seen as the only option

Important role of globalization and Important role of globalization and spreading technology–with both weapons spreading technology–with both weapons and communicationsand communications

Seen as a low-risk, cost-effective, and Seen as a low-risk, cost-effective, and potentially high-yield means of winning potentially high-yield means of winning useful tactical objectives, such as massive useful tactical objectives, such as massive publicity, freeing of political prisoners, and publicity, freeing of political prisoners, and so onso on

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Combating TerrorismCombating Terrorism

Current emphasis is on diplomacy, Current emphasis is on diplomacy, intelligence gathering, national law intelligence gathering, national law enforcement, and military actionsenforcement, and military actions

Not much focus on addressing the Not much focus on addressing the root causes of terrorism, such as root causes of terrorism, such as poverty alleviation and economic poverty alleviation and economic developmentdevelopment– Major criticism of U.S. “war on terror”Major criticism of U.S. “war on terror”

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Unconventional ForceUnconventional Force Arms transfers: Destination and sourcesArms transfers: Destination and sources

– Mostly to LDCs/Mostly from EDCsMostly to LDCs/Mostly from EDCs– Can help LDCs meet defense needs and boost the economy of Can help LDCs meet defense needs and boost the economy of

EDCsEDCs Arms transfers: DrawbacksArms transfers: Drawbacks

– CostCost– Increased risk of regional violence and warfare, sparking a Increased risk of regional violence and warfare, sparking a

regional arms race among nations regional arms race among nations – Maintaining authoritarian governments in power,Maintaining authoritarian governments in power,

– Potential to face one’s own weaponsPotential to face one’s own weapons

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Unconventional Force: Special Unconventional Force: Special OperationsOperations

Include overtly and covertly sending one’s Include overtly and covertly sending one’s special operation forces (SOFs), intelligence special operation forces (SOFs), intelligence operatives, or paramilitary agents operatives, or paramilitary agents

Small-unit activities, such as commando Small-unit activities, such as commando operations and intelligence gatheringoperations and intelligence gathering

Increased use of SOFs by U.S. government since Increased use of SOFs by U.S. government since 9/11 including in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Iran9/11 including in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Iran

Rumsfeld proposed loose rule sets for these Rumsfeld proposed loose rule sets for these “trigger pullers”—probably a smart call“trigger pullers”—probably a smart call

Risks: possible escalation (Vietnam, Risks: possible escalation (Vietnam, Afghanistan)Afghanistan)

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Conventional ForceConventional Force

Overt and coercive military Overt and coercive military interventionintervention

Norm throughout most of historyNorm throughout most of history

Involves uniformed military Involves uniformed military personnel, usually in large numberspersonnel, usually in large numbers

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Conventional Force: Goals Conventional Force: Goals and Conductand Conduct

War is part of diplomacy, not a War is part of diplomacy, not a substitute for itsubstitute for it

War should be governed by War should be governed by political, not military, political, not military, considerationsconsiderations

War should be fought with clear War should be fought with clear political goalspolitical goals

Avoid unchecked escalationAvoid unchecked escalation

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The Dangers of Escalation:The Dangers of Escalation:Standards to Avoid Unchecked Standards to Avoid Unchecked EscalationEscalation

Keep lines of communication openKeep lines of communication open Limit goalsLimit goals Restrict geographic scopeRestrict geographic scope Observe target restrictionsObserve target restrictions Limit weapons usedLimit weapons used

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Warfare with Warfare with “Weapons of Mass Destruction” “Weapons of Mass Destruction” Term invented after 1937 German Condor Legion Term invented after 1937 German Condor Legion

bombing of Guernicabombing of Guernica Includes nuclear, biological, and chemical Includes nuclear, biological, and chemical

weaponsweapons 1972 Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) bans 1972 Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) bans

all production, possession, and uses of biological all production, possession, and uses of biological weapons, but they still pose a serious threatweapons, but they still pose a serious threat

Chemical weapons are the most prevalent Chemical weapons are the most prevalent because they are relatively easy and inexpensive because they are relatively easy and inexpensive to produceto produce

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Nuclear WeaponsNuclear Weapons

Although the number of nuclear weapons has Although the number of nuclear weapons has declined since the end of the Cold War, a huge declined since the end of the Cold War, a huge number of powerful nuclear weapons exist in number of powerful nuclear weapons exist in numerous statesnumerous states

Russia and the United States remain the nuclear Russia and the United States remain the nuclear GoliathsGoliaths

China, France, Great Britain, India, and Pakistan all China, France, Great Britain, India, and Pakistan all openly possess nuclear weaponsopenly possess nuclear weapons

Iran, North Korea, and Israel have undeclared nuclear Iran, North Korea, and Israel have undeclared nuclear weaponsweapons

Debate over ease of construction/Iranian capability*Debate over ease of construction/Iranian capability*

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The Role of Nuclear The Role of Nuclear WeaponsWeapons

Backdrop of power and influenceBackdrop of power and influence DeterrenceDeterrence Actual use–What are some possible Actual use–What are some possible

paths?paths?– Irrational leaderIrrational leader– Calculated attackCalculated attack– Last gasp nuclear warLast gasp nuclear war– Inadvertent nuclear warInadvertent nuclear war– EscalationEscalation– Terrorist group obtains a nuclear deviceTerrorist group obtains a nuclear device

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Nuclear Deterrence, Non-Nuclear Deterrence, Non-proliferation and Strategyproliferation and Strategy

Three main issues:Three main issues:– How to minimize the chance of nuclear war?How to minimize the chance of nuclear war?– How to maximize the chance of survival if How to maximize the chance of survival if

nuclear exchange does occur?nuclear exchange does occur?– How to persuade nuclear nations that are not How to persuade nuclear nations that are not

signatories or not in compliance with the signatories or not in compliance with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) to Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) to secure their nuclear materials and technologies secure their nuclear materials and technologies from the grasp of terrorist organizations?from the grasp of terrorist organizations?

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DeterrenceDeterrence

Persuading the enemy that attacking Persuading the enemy that attacking you is not worth the costyou is not worth the cost– Capability and credibility are criticalCapability and credibility are critical– Mutual assured destruction (MAD)Mutual assured destruction (MAD)

Deterrence through punishmentDeterrence through punishment– Nuclear Utilization Theory (NUT)Nuclear Utilization Theory (NUT)

Deterrence through damage denial Deterrence through damage denial or limitationor limitation

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Nuclear Non-Proliferation Nuclear Non-Proliferation Strategies Strategies

Economic and humanitarian assistance to non-Economic and humanitarian assistance to non-compliant nuclear nations and "rogue states" in compliant nuclear nations and "rogue states" in exchange for these nations agreeing to dismantle their exchange for these nations agreeing to dismantle their nuclear weapons programs and submit to international nuclear weapons programs and submit to international inspections of facilities by IAEAinspections of facilities by IAEA

Provision of technical assistance to non-compliant or Provision of technical assistance to non-compliant or "rogue" nuclear nations to assist in dismantling and "rogue" nuclear nations to assist in dismantling and securing of nuclear weapons, material, and technologysecuring of nuclear weapons, material, and technology

Diplomatic agreements to provide peaceful nuclear Diplomatic agreements to provide peaceful nuclear technology to these rogue nuclear nations in exchange technology to these rogue nuclear nations in exchange for their agreement to halt and dismantle nuclear for their agreement to halt and dismantle nuclear weapons programsweapons programs

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Nuclear Non-Proliferation Nuclear Non-Proliferation StrategiesStrategies

Imposition of economic sanctions against Imposition of economic sanctions against "rogue nuclear nations" that refuse to comply "rogue nuclear nations" that refuse to comply with the non-proliferation provisions of the NPTwith the non-proliferation provisions of the NPT

Removal of economic sanctions against Removal of economic sanctions against nations that agree to give up their nuclear nations that agree to give up their nuclear weapons programsweapons programs

Enhanced on-site inspections of nuclear Enhanced on-site inspections of nuclear weapons facilities by the IAEAweapons facilities by the IAEA

Threats of possible military strikes against Threats of possible military strikes against nuclear facilities of "rogue states"nuclear facilities of "rogue states"

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Nuclear Non-Proliferation Nuclear Non-Proliferation StrategiesStrategies

All of the previously mentioned strategies in play as All of the previously mentioned strategies in play as the U.S., EU, IAEA, and Russia negotiate with Iran the U.S., EU, IAEA, and Russia negotiate with Iran over its nuclear weapons programover its nuclear weapons program

All of the previously mentioned strategies under All of the previously mentioned strategies under consideration or implemented as U.S., China, consideration or implemented as U.S., China, Russia, South Korea, and Japan negotiate with Russia, South Korea, and Japan negotiate with North Korea over the fate of its nuclear weapons North Korea over the fate of its nuclear weapons programprogram

Combination of international diplomatic, economic, Combination of international diplomatic, economic, technological incentives and sanctions convinced technological incentives and sanctions convinced Libya to abandon its nuclear weapons program in Libya to abandon its nuclear weapons program in 20032003

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Nuclear StrategyNuclear Strategy

The first-use optionThe first-use option

Missile defense systems—Israel, Missile defense systems—Israel, U.S.U.S.

Chapter Objectives: Chapter Objectives: ChecklistChecklist

After reading this chapter, students should be able to:After reading this chapter, students should be able to: 1. Identify reasons for studying war and summarize the hu man record of war, 1. Identify reasons for studying war and summarize the hu man record of war,

including the incidence, death toll, frequency, and severity.including the incidence, death toll, frequency, and severity. 2. Discuss the causes of war by applying the three levels of analysis: system, 2. Discuss the causes of war by applying the three levels of analysis: system,

state, and individual.state, and individual. 3. Discuss how the nature of war has changed as a result of nationalism, 3. Discuss how the nature of war has changed as a result of nationalism,

technology, and changes in strategies.technology, and changes in strategies. 4. Be able to identify the different types of war.4. Be able to identify the different types of war. 5. Discuss the nature, limits, sources, and record of terrorism, as well as terrorist 5. Discuss the nature, limits, sources, and record of terrorism, as well as terrorist

weapons and tactics, causes of terrorism, and combating terrorism.weapons and tactics, causes of terrorism, and combating terrorism. 6. Understand unconventional warfare, including the benefits and drawbacks of 6. Understand unconventional warfare, including the benefits and drawbacks of

arms transfers and special operations.arms transfers and special operations. 7. Define and describe the goals and conduct of war, as well as ways to avoid 7. Define and describe the goals and conduct of war, as well as ways to avoid

unchecked escalation.unchecked escalation. 8. Analyze the role of biological, chemical, and nuclear weapons in warfare.8. Analyze the role of biological, chemical, and nuclear weapons in warfare. 9. Discuss how a nuclear war may start.9. Discuss how a nuclear war may start. 10. Understand nuclear deterrence and nuclear strategy. 10. Understand nuclear deterrence and nuclear strategy.

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