Census Bureau Updates

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Census Bureau Updates

SDC Affiliates Fall MeetingsSalem, Oregon

Seattle, WashingtonSeptember 16 & 19, 2014

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Releases / Updates

American Community Survey

2020 Decennial Census

Data tools and apps

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American Community Survey

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Fall 2014 Releases

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Data Product Planed Release Date Population Size of Area

2013 ACS 1-Year Estimates September 18 , 2014 65,000 +

2011-2013 ACS 3-Year Estimates October 23, 2014 20,000 +

2009-2013 ACS 5-Year Estimates December 4, 2014 All Geographies

The American Community Survey is the only source of local statistics for most of the 40 topics it covers - - such as education, occupation, language,

ancestry and housing costs - - for even the smallest communities.

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Questionnaire Topics

American Community Survey (ACS)Demographic

SexAgeRaceEthnicityHousehold RelationshipGroup Quarters

Social

Families EducationMarital Status FertilityGrandparent CaregiversVeteransDisability StatusLanguage at HomeCitizenshipMigration

Economic

IncomePovertyFood Stamps / SNAPEmployment StatusOccupationIndustryJourney to WorkPlace of WorkHealth Insurance

Housing

Tenure Occupancy Structure Housing ValueTaxes / InsuranceUtilitiesMortgageMonthly RentVehicles

Items in red were also collected on the 2010 Census

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Content Review

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Information Gathering

Field Representative Survey: May 2014 • 1,063 responses from six Regional Offices and three

Contact Centers (representing 96.6% response rate from 1,125 interviewers in sample)

• 6 questions concerning perceived intrusiveness, burden, sensitivity for each item on the questionnaire

• 3 most “problematic” ACS questions based on preliminary score and number of mentions

• Income – wages • Type of Internet access • Property value

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Information Gathering

Data user feedback form: June-July • Received 932 responses, representing 3,405

total mentions of high-value or frequently-used questions

• Most important or most frequently used ACS questions

• How did this person usually get to work last week? (457)

• What is the highest degree or level of school this person has completed? (283)

• What was this person's total income during the past 12 months? (247)

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Information Gathering

Advisory Committee Input: May-July Working Group

• Kickoff held with Census Bureau May 8

• Met to review questions for value/burden to stakeholder

communities and to document example uses

• Developed a report of their recommendations

• Presented results to NAC Committee August 6

Findings Perceived intrusiveness and burden considered Nearly all questions found to be of benefit to small

population groups and small geographic areas

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Information Gathering

Federal agencies input: April-July • Participation from 23 agencies representing

over 300 uses• Majority of agencies reporting same number

or more uses over the OMB 2012 process• Commerce OGC has made a strong

commitment to this project and is heavily engaged in legal reviews of all the input to provide the legal opinion on the statutory basis for cited uses

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Analysis

Analytic approach is determined Methodology documentation is underway

Decision memo on business rules – 1st Draft (June)

Decision memo on selection criteria – 1st Draft (July)

Full methodological description with appendices for each data input stream – 1st Draft (July)

To mitigate potential bias, criteria pre-specified prior to review of data inputs

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Next Steps

Develop recommendations from analysis: August

Report out findings: August - December

Federal Register notice (60 day comment period): October - December

Vet responses received through Federal Register notice: December

Make decisions that inform the OMB package: December – January

Submit OMB package: Early Spring 2015

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Content Review - Milestones

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Current ACS Challenges

Issue Congressional Discussion

Burden Intrusiveness Defund or Eliminate Survey Harassment

Mandatory Voluntary

Penalties Reduce or Eliminate Survey

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Issue: Mandatory vs. Voluntary Respondent participation mandatory (current)

• Most respond on their own (59% self-response rate)• Phone & field interviews boost overall response rate

(97.4%)

Impact of voluntary• Testing found survey costs would increase by at least

$90 million annually• Reduced quality due to (1) declines in participation

and (2) number of completed interviews (rather than increase in survey errors)

• Inability to release estimates for small geographies and small population subgroups

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ACS Data Uses Project

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What are we collecting?

Examples of how the ACS data are used

Subjects and geographic areas

Type of data user

Data product used

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Why is it important to collect?

Based on the challenges, communicate better the importance and utility of the ACS data to: (1) the public, (2) congressional leaders, (3) local / state / federal agencies, and (4) businesses, among others

Get a better understanding of the ways ACS data are used

Information can feed into the content review process

Information may impact our data products plan

Outreach messaging can be targeted for groups with similar data needs/uses

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How Will Information Be Used?

May request testimonials to support and validate the ACS

• For educational or promotional purposes

• Organizations may be asked to do a video on how they use ACS data

• Information requested by executives and Congress will be readily available

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ACS Improvements

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Survey Improvements

Sample Reallocation

Objective: improve the reliability of the estimates for small areas (under 20,000 population)

• Increased sampling rates for small tracts and governmental units

• Slightly decreased sampling rates in larger tracts

Begun in January 2011

• First result: 2011-2015 ACS 5-year estimates, to be released December 2016

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Survey Improvements

ACS Sample Expansion

Sample expanded from 2.9 million to 3.54 million addresses per year

Sample increase began for o Mailout in June 2011o CATI in July 2011o CAPI in August 2011

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Survey Improvements

Expected Results

Tract Size Category

Average Tract Size

CVs before reallocation and sample expansion

CVs after reallocation,

before sample expansion

(2.9M)

CVs after reallocation and sample expansion

(3.54M)

0 – 400 291 66% 41% 35%

401 – 1,000 766 41% 30% 25%

1,001 – 2,000 1,485 29% 29% 25%

2,000 – 4,000 2,636 26% 29% 25%

4,000 – 6,000 4,684 19% 29% 25%

6,000 + 8,337 15% 28% 25%

Five Year Coefficients of Variation (CVs) for typical tracts, by size where red > yellow > green

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Survey Improvements

Internet Response Option Ongoing digital transformation

61st U.S. Census Bureau survey with Internet response option Households in sample receive letter with login

instructions to secure website Participants have the ability to review responses Assistance available to respondents

Advantages More convenient for respondents More cost-effective

Secure and confidential

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https://respond.census.gov/acs

Available beginning 2013

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2020 Decennial Census

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The Context

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 (estd) 2020 (proj)$0.00

$20.00

$40.00

$60.00

$80.00

$100.00

$120.00

$140.00

$160.00

$180.00

$200.00

$14

$29

$40

$70

$108

$181

Rising costs of 2010 Census largely driven by three factors: (1) Declining self-response

rates requiring the hiring of a large field staff

(2) Paper-based and labor-intensive methods requiring a large field infrastructure

(3) Substantial investments in major, national updating of the address frame just prior to the enumeration (2009)

Census Cost per Housing Unit (2010$)

(Projected cost for 2020 assumes no change in design and past patterns of cost growth; also

includes the costs for American Community Survey)

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Goals The strategic outcome is to develop a design

which strikes a balance between delivering the highest quality census while reducing costs and managing risks.

The 2020 Census has four strategic goals: • An accurate and complete census• Embraced and valued results • An efficient census • A well-managed census

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2014 Census Test

Where/When Is Test Being Conducted?

Approximately 190,000 housing units

• Part of Montgomery County, MD

• Part of Washington, DC

Temporary field office in Silver Spring, MD

End of June through September

• “Census Day” (reference date) was July 1, 2014

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2014 Census Test

Overall Goals

Making decennial headcount quick, easy, and safe for all to participate

Provide substantial taxpayer savings while maintaining commitment to high quality and accuracy

• Smart use of technology

• Use of existing government data sources (administrative records)

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2014 Census Test

Why These Locations?

Sites meet criteria for highly developed (urban) areas near less developed areas

Size of sites provides efficient and cost effective ways to test workloads

Sites’ proximity to Census Bureau Headquarters in Suitland, MD allows for easy, cost-effective observation

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2014 Census Test

Why These Locations?

Subset* of non-responding households in these two test sites will receive in-person visits to test alternative field data collection procedures

*In areas chosen based on demographic factors that include the following . . .

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2014 Census Test

Why These Locations?

Vacancy rates Household size 2010 Census response rates Mix of residences owned or rented, and

single- or multi-unit Age of householders in area Householder race and ethnicity Availability of administrative records

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2014 Census Test

What is the Census Bureau Testing?

Strategies to encourage householders to respond via mail, Internet, and other options (“self-response”)

Strategies to target in-person interviews to more efficiently follow-up with households that do not self-respond (“nonresponse follow-up” or “NRFU”)

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2014 Census Test

What Is the Scope of the Test? Internet self-response mode and contact strategies for

Internet preregistration

E-mail and automated voice invitations

Mobile devices used by field staff to enumerate non-responding households

Alternative NRFU contact strategies

Use of administrative records to identify cases to remove from nonresponse workload

Use of adaptive design methodologies to manage field enumerator work assignments

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2014 Census Test

What’s on the Questionnaire? Wording changes from 2010 Census

• Testing changes on race and Hispanic origin questions, combining race and ethnicity into one question

• Testing new response categories for opposite sex and same-sex husband/wife/spouse and unmarried partner relationships, both on the Internet and on paper data collection questionnaires

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2014 Census Test

Will There Be Other Tests?

Additional testing activities planned for 2015 and subsequent years

• Plans still under development

• Will likely be conducted in different geographic areas across the United States

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2014 Census Test

Important Terms

Self-response• Where households complete and return their

census questionnaire in a timely manner (includes Internet response) – require no in-person follow-up visit

Administrative records• Collected by government agencies to run or

administer a program (IRS, for example)

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2014 Census Test

Will Results Be Released?

Test is designed to measure how well a variety of new technologies and census-taking methods work• Not designed to obtain a complete and

accurate count• Official population counts will not be released

Test will support the critical research on potential methods for the 2020 Census

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Data Tools and Apps

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Homepage: census.gov

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Developers & Mobile Apps

Data Tab

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Developers Page

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Mobile Apps

Economic Indicators

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Mobile Apps

Dwellr

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Mobile Apps

Pop Quiz (of States)

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Census Homepage: census.gov

QuickFacts

QuickFactsPopulation threshold: 5,000Geographies: State, county, placeTopics: Current demographic, business, & geography facts, and links to historic data (through “Browse data sets”)

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census.gov > Data Tab > Data Tools and Apps

Census Explorer

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Four Editions

Census Explorer

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Census ExplorerCensus Explorer (thematic maps)

Sources: 2012 American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2011 County Business Patterns, Census 2000, & 1990 CensusGeographies: U.S., state, county, census tractTopics: Variety of demographic (currently 11) and economic (currently 6) variables

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census.gov > Data Tab > Data Tools and Apps

Easy Stats

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Easy Stats

Easy StatsGeographies: State, county, placeTopics: Financial, jobs, housing, people, education -- all variables are crossed with race and ethnicity

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Easy Stats

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American FactFinder (AFF): factfinder2.census.gov

Census Homepage: census.gov

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factfinder2.census.gov

American FactFinder (AFF)

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Help

American FactFinder

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Assistance with AFF• Click Help (AFF mainpage, top right)

• Online User Guide• Virtual Tour• Community Facts• Guided Search• Advanced Search• Download Options• Using Data• Tables• Maps• Narrative Profiles• Tutorials• Glossary

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Community Facts

American FactFinder (AFF)

Community Facts tab

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factfinder2.census.gov

American FactFinder (AFF)

Community Facts tab

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AFF Community Facts

Each of the 10 filter bars presents a single variable for the selected geography, aswell as links to additional

tables for the same topic and the same geographic area

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factfinder2.census.gov

American FactFinder (AFF)

Guided Search tab

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Recommended for Novice Data Users

AFF Guided Search

User answers prompts, then clicks “Next” or a

numbered arrow to proceed -- arrows 1 through 4 may be

selected in any order

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factfinder2.census.gov

American FactFinder (AFF)

Advanced Search tab

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AFF Advanced Search

Filter bars facilitate searches. Object is to select filters, such as Topics, to refine search. All filters will appear in the Your

Selections box to be applied to the final table selection.

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Topics Filter Bar

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“People” Menu Expanded

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Product Type = Table Format

See page 8 of the Quick Reference Guide for full

descriptions of product types

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Census Programs on AFF

Alphabetical listing of all programs loaded on American FactFinder

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Datasets on AFF

Latest release is at the top of the list

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Key Word Search

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census.gov Footer

Census & ACS Questionnaires

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census.gov Footer > About Us > History

Census Questionnaires

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Census Questionnaires Archive

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census.gov Footer > People & Households > ACS

ACS Questionnaires

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Workshop Information and

Data Questions

Los Angeles Regional Office

818-267-1725 or

888-806-6389 (toll-free )

Linda ClarkData Dissemination Specialist

Pacific Northwest & AlaskaU.S. Census BureauLos Angeles Region

[email protected]

Mobile: 206-446-8794