Can Energy Production Scale?

Can Energy Can Energy Production Scale?Production Scale?

Choices and Challenges for Choices and Challenges for the Current Centurythe Current Century

Our Waveform of Consumption

Three Main Challenges

Electricity Production: per capita consumption is increasing faster than energy efficiency

Electricity Distribution: Aging grid already at capacity

Fuel Usage: 3.5 Billion gallons a day (would be more if not refinery limited) 400 million gallons a day in the US

Production and Consumption on the Century Timescale

A Century of Change A Century of Change (1900 (=1) vs 2000)(1900 (=1) vs 2000)

• Industrial Output: 40

• Marine Fish Catch: 35

• CO2 Emissions: 17

• Total Energy Use: 16

• Coal Production: 7

• World Population: 4

No More Fish by

2100 at this rate

of Consumption

Waveforms of GrowthWaveforms of Growth

The Terrawatt Power ScaleThe Terrawatt Power Scale

Currently we are a 14.5 TW PlanetCurrently we are a 14.5 TW Planet

The Earth Limited Scale

Scaling from the last century leads to the absurd: 235 TW of required Power

Well, what kind of facilities/infrastructure would need to be built to generate 235 TW of Power?

Option 1:

Build 40,000 more of these worldwide:

Hey What about World Wide Wind?

We would need to build 50 million of these 5 MW machines

This requires 75 Billion Tons of Steel whoops, we ain’t got that much Steel left

Option 3: Pave the Deserts

We only need 30 million square kilometers spaced out continuously in each time zone.

Note that the entire Sahara desert is 9 million square km.

More Earth LimitationsMore Earth Limitations

Total fuel cell production limited by Total fuel cell production limited by amount of accessible platinum on the amount of accessible platinum on the planet; 500 million vehicles planet; 500 million vehicles lithospheric lithospheric exhaustion in 15 yearsexhaustion in 15 years

Higher efficiency PVs limited by accessible Higher efficiency PVs limited by accessible amount of Cadmium or Gallium or Indiumamount of Cadmium or Gallium or Indium

Conventional Transmission media limited Conventional Transmission media limited by available new Copperby available new Copper

Clear need for Carbon based materials Clear need for Carbon based materials (fiber, nanotubes) to overcome this.(fiber, nanotubes) to overcome this.

Business As Usual ScenarioBusiness As Usual Scenario

Population stabilizes to 10-12 billion Population stabilizes to 10-12 billion by the year 2100 by the year 2100

Total world energy use from 2000 to Total world energy use from 2000 to 2100 is 4000 Terra Watt Years (Current 2100 is 4000 Terra Watt Years (Current world use is about 14.5 TW years)world use is about 14.5 TW years)

40 TWyr is compromise between 40 TWyr is compromise between current 14.5 TWyr and scaled 235 current 14.5 TWyr and scaled 235 TWyrTWyr

Ultimately Recoverable Ultimately Recoverable ResourceResource

Conventional Conventional Oil/GasOil/Gas

Unconventional OilUnconventional Oil CoalCoal Methane ClathratesMethane Clathrates Oil ShaleOil Shale Uranium OreUranium Ore Geothermal Steam Geothermal Steam

- conventional- conventional

1000 TWy (1/4 1000 TWy (1/4 need)need)

20002000 50005000 20,00020,000 30,00030,000 2,0002,000 4,0004,000

Other PossibilitiesOther Possibilities

Hot Dry RockHot Dry Rock Sunlight/OTECSunlight/OTEC Wind EnergyWind Energy Gulf StreamGulf Stream Global BiomassGlobal Biomass

1,000,0001,000,000 9,000,0009,000,000 200,000200,000 140,000140,000 10,00010,000

In Principle, Incident Energy is Sufficient but how to recover and distribute it in the most cost effective manner?

Dollars Per Megawatt per unit Dollars Per Megawatt per unit Land use per unit Material UseLand use per unit Material Use

20 KW power buoy 20 KW power buoy 5 MW Wind Turbine5 MW Wind Turbine LNG closed cycleLNG closed cycle Wind FarmWind Farm PV FarmPV Farm Stirling FarmStirling Farm Pelamis FarmPelamis Farm

850 Tons per MW850 Tons per MW 100 Tons per MW100 Tons per MW 1500 MW sq km 1500 MW sq km 600 MW sq km600 MW sq km 50 MW sq km50 MW sq km 40 MW sq km40 MW sq km 30 MW sq km30 MW sq km