Top Banner
Calculate, map and used of critical loads and exceedances for acidity and nitrogen in Europe Professor Harald Sverdrup Chemical Engineering, Lund University, Sweden Harald.Sverdrup@chemeng.lth.se
33

Calculate, map and used of critical loads and exceedances for acidity and nitrogen in Europe

Jan 15, 2016

Download

Documents

Calculate, map and used of critical loads and exceedances for acidity and nitrogen in Europe. Professor Harald Sverdrup Chemical Engineering, Lund University, Sweden. Harald.Sverdrup@chemeng.lth.se. The European game plan. An effect-based methodology. Defining the critical load. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Welcome message from author
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
  • Calculate, map and used of critical loads and exceedances for acidity and nitrogen in EuropeProfessor Harald Sverdrup Chemical Engineering, Lund University, SwedenHarald.Sverdrup@chemeng.lth.se

  • The European game plan

  • An effect-based methodology

  • Defining the critical loadThe maximum amount of pollution into an ecosystem that does not cause significant damage to system resources, survival, structure or function

  • The critical loadContributions toacidity in the systemContributions toneutralization inthe system

  • Targets to protect

    For Sweden, it is proposed that the aspects to protect are:

    1. Tree vitality and growth potential for the major species used in production,

    2. The potential for natural rejuvenation of the tree vegetation

    3. Fertility aspect of the soil as expressed by the base saturation,

    4. Biodiversity of the ground vegetation

    For aquatic ecosystems the aspects to protect are suggested to be:

    1. The most sensitive fish species native to the waterbody

    2. Crayfish in those waterbodies it is native to

    3. The biodiversity of the aquatic community, evaluating the range of organisms native to the system

    Tabulated values are available for limiting BC/Al ratios for trees, ground vegetation and crops, as well as their corresponding pH values.

  • Response was measuredNorway spruce: BC/Al=1.2Scots pine: BC/Al=1.0Birch: BC/Al= 0.8 Beech, Oak: BC/Al==0.6

  • Many effect parameters are available

    Ecosystem

    Type

    Ecosystem component

    Indicator organism

    Indicator function

    Causative parameter

    Limiting value

    Diagnostic

    Monitoring parameter

    Forest ecosystem

    Tree cover

    Norway Spruce

    Root vitality,

    Growth potential

    (Ca+Mg+K)/Al

    pH

    [Al3+]

    1.2

    4.4

    0.5 mg/l

    Growth,

    Needle loss, Tree vitality

    Natural

    rejuvenation

    (Ca+Mg+K)/Al

    pH

    [Al3+]

    0.7

    3.9

    1 mg/l

    Rejuvenation rate,

    Species long term survival

    Scots pine

    Root vitality,

    Growth potential

    (Ca+Mg+K)/Al

    pH

    [Al3+]

    1.2

    4.4

    0.5 mg/l

    Growth,

    Needle loss, Tree vitality

    Natural

    rejuvenation

    (Ca+Mg+K)/Al

    pH

    [Al3+]

    0.6,

    3.9

    1 mg/l

    Rejuvenation rate,

    Species long term survival

  • Models available for critical loads for acidity and nitrogenEmpirical modelsSkokloster modelEmpirical nitrogen critical loadsSimplified modelsSimple mass balance (SMB)F-factor models (lakes)Integrated steady state modelsPROFILE modelIntegrated dynamic modelsVSD model (soils)MAGIC model family (lakes)SAFE/ForSAFE-VEG model family (terrestial ecosystems)

  • The order of the actionsStatic approach first - Simple mass balance models - Complex approach; PROFILE - Create critical loads mapsApply dynamic models at sites with enough data - Single sites - qualitative assessments - Generate regional approach - representative information capture and transformation

  • PROFILE/ForSAFE

  • Revised critical loads for forests, lakes and streams

  • Critical Load for acidity and nitrogen in the grid system

  • Critical loads for ecosystems in Europe, forests, open land and lakes

  • The best solution is sought for

  • The Swedish example1988 exceedence was far too much !

  • Medel: 37 mekv/m2/rExceedance depend on the receptor chosen

  • Exceedance with the Gteborg protocol

  • Sulfur deposition 1980-2010Green = 3-6 kg S/ha yrRed > 25 kg S/ha yr

  • Exceedance of critical loadsBlue < 3 kg S/ha yrRed > 25 kg S/ha yr

  • Validation is difficult

  • Exceedance and effects are NOT simultaneous in time

  • 13 NFCs submitted Dynamic Modelling outputs:

    Austria, Bulgaria, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Germany, France, Great Britain, Ireland, Italy, Norway, Luxembourg, Poland, Sweden.Countries now into integrated regional dynamic modelling

  • What are the model predictions?

    Recovery does not reverse the path of acidificationFast effect initially, very slow final recoveryRecovery is not 100%

  • Prediction: Lake pH in Scandinavia

  • Dynamic simulations:Soil pH in the long runin Sweden

  • But BC/Al what we work with

  • Soil base saturation, lost ?

  • Simple messages to policy?Critical load (CL)No significant harmful effects if deposition dont exceed CLTarget load (TL)Recovery by specified year if deposition dont exceed TL

  • Interpretation of target loadsWill not recover by 2030Will recover by 2030

  • TLmax(S)-2030 5th percentile CLmax(S)

  • 20 years with critical loads1968 Acidification put on the official agenda by Prof Svante Oden in Uppsala1979 Convention on long range transboundary air pollution1985 First Olso protocol on flat rate 30% sulfur emission reduction1990 The second Oslo protocol, effects based but settling on 60% sulfur emission reduction1999 The Gteborg protocol, effects based settling for -85% S/-30% NOx2010 revision of the Gteborg effects based protocol

  • ConclusionsInternational efforts to prevent acidification have been very successful

    Critical oads very extremely successful in linking environmental goals through science to policy

    Acidification remains as a large and significant problem in large areas of Europe

  • Time for questions !!

  • Discusssion slide

  • Hva skulle ha hendt om vi ikke hade hatt noen internasjonale avtaler og nedfall som i 1980 for all fremtid ?Gissa !Do nothin and keep acid rain for good ?

  • Base saturation melts like butter in the sun