Building Blocks of a Climate Risk Management Frameworkindiaatcop23.org/images/presentation/Building Blocks of a... · 2017-11-15 · Building Blocks of a Climate Risk Management Framework

Building Blocks of a Climate Risk Management

Framework

Reinhard Mechler, Thomas Schinko (IIASA, Vienna)

Ashish Chaturvedi (GIZ India)

• Climate-related losses and damages have increased dramatically over the past few decades

• Multiple drivers of increase in risk:

• Socioeconomic development

• Climate variability and climate change

• Vulnerability

• Most recent climate projections indicate

• a significant increase in the frequency and/or intensity of extreme weather events as well as

• severe slow-onset climate-related changes (e.g. sea-level rise).

Point of departure

• Urgent need to develop and implement effective climate risk analysis and management approaches

• Current debate shows: vulnerable communities in hot-spot countries need to be better equipped to manage climate-relate risks

• A broad climate risk analytical approach helps to operationalize decision-support at scale local, national and int’l and provides a framework for detecting and evaluating significant risks

Point of departure

• A number of approaches already exist but fall short of meeting the information needs of policy-makers and local governments.

• Develop a Climate Risk Management framework to assess and determine response to climate-risks at the national as well as the state level dealing with large scale climate vulnerabilities as well as residual risks

Scope and Aim

• Responding to climate-related risks involves decision making in a changing world, with continuing uncertainty

• Iterative risk management is a useful framework for decision making in complex situations characterized by large potential consequences, persistent uncertainties, long timeframes, potential for learning, and multiple climatic and non-climatic influences changing over time.

(Iterative) Climate risk management as dominant framework

IPCC, 2014

6 step climate risk analytical framework

Transformative adjustment/risk

management

Fundamental adjustment/risk

management

Step 1:

Step 2:

Step 3:

Step 4:

Step 5:

Step 6:

Incremental adjustment/risk

management

Evaluate risk tolerance and

limits – Conduct risk

segregation into acceptable,

tolerable and intolerable

Identify risk – Conduct a

qualitative and quantitative

risk assessment

Develop context specific

methodology to assess

impacts for the system of

interest

Identify system of interest

(sector, region) – Conduct

hotspot and capacity

analysis

Identify and assess feasible

options to avert, minimize and

address potential climate-

related loss and damage

Status quo – Assess the

information needs and

objectives of the overall

CRM framework

Step 1 – Define Status Quo

Step 2 – Identify System of Interest

Step 3 – Develop Context Specific Methodology

Product Purpose Resource commitment

Time commitment

Expertise required

Application

Informational, impact-focused study

Provide a broad overview of past losses and damages

+ Person- weeks Empirical skills, statistics

Himachal Pradesh analysis:

understanding hazards and

changes

Backward-looking risk-based analysis (broad-scenarios using what is available-more practical)

Overview of past and future risks building on reported loss and damage

++ Person-months

Risk management, economics,

statistics

Tamil Nadu analysis:

identifying observed impacts

Forward-looking risk-based analysis incl. climate scenarios (new scenario information and generation, attribution assessment, more scientific)

Detail forward-looking scenario-based risk analysis building on hazard, exposure and vulnerability analyses

+++ Person-months up to person-year

Risk management, economics, statistics, climate

scenarios

Tamil Nadu analysis:scenario

projections of future risks

Step 4 – Identify Risks

Figure: Expected urban damage due to riverine flood risk in India (in % of GDP) in 2030 for

different combinations of RCPs and SSPs, compared to 2010. The range of the results

always represents the min-max range over 5 different GCMs. Source: GLOFRIS (2017)

Step 4 ctd. – Impact chains: Tamil Nadu

adelphi and GIZ (2015)

Step 5 – Evaluate Risk Tolerance and Limits

Figure: Risk tolerance for Tamil Nadu as evaluated from household responses

Step 6 – Identify Feasible Options

Today

High

Moderate

Low

RIS

K

Farmers keep land uncultivated and seek alternative livelihoods Salt tolerant high yielding varieties of paddy seeds Fertilizers (mixed with gypsum) Building up of new pond, Renovation of tank and reservoirs. Sea dyke/bund Increasing height of field bunds Desalinization of land Created sand bund with urea bag filled with mud. Constructed overhead water tank

Fundamental

Transformative

Incremental

Bas

elin

e r

isk

Figure: Rrisk and options space in Tamil Nadu as identified from household responses (farm level)

• Synergistically informs Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) and policy and actions that deal with residual risk.

• Interventions comprise of:

• Incremental (standard DRR and CCA interventions directly addressing specific risks, e.g., raising dikes),

• Fundamental (non-standard interventions in the system of interest, e.g., opening floodplains instead of dike) and

• Transformative (interventions focused on building resilience e.g., voluntary migration from floodplains to cities to provide alternative livelihoods).

• Align top-down insight from expert-based methods with bottom-up information on households' and communities' risks gathered through participatory processes.

Conclusions

Thank you for your attention!

For further details, please contact

Ashish Chaturvedi

[email protected]