BUET Workshop 14 th Novembver 2009 What is Climate Change? A combined long term effect of rising global temperature leading to changes in air and oceanic.

BUET Workshop 14 th Novembver 2009 What is Climate Change? A combined long term effect of rising global temperature leading to changes in air and oceanic circulations and consequently rainfall patterns over time and space Global mean temperature rise is due to concentration of CO 2, methane, N 2 O and other gases, often called green house gases, caused mainly by fossil fuel use, deforestation and to an extent due to wet paddy cultivation

BUET Workshop 14 th Novembver 2009 Global Worming and Climate Change Ainun Nishat, Ph. D Senior Advisor, Climate change IUCN The International Union for Conservation of Nature Email: [email protected]

BUET Workshop 14 th Novembver 2009 Is Climate Change real ..? Climate change has risen to the top of international policy agenda. G-8 has agreed to reduce green house emission by 50% by 2050. Is it enough? IPCC TAR 2001: The Earths Climate system has demonstrably changed on both global and regional scales since the pre-industrial era. The IPCC- FAR(2007), concludes that global warming is unequivocally the result of human activities. CO 2 emission has increased from 280 ppm before industrial revolution to about 380 ppm. May reach 800+ ppm by end of this century. Global average temperature is already up by 0.8 C. Stern Review ( 2007) : poorest countries and people will suffer earliest and most. Scientific consensus is clear; now we need to urgently focus on what to do about it. Attempts are being made to fix the ceiling at 500ppm and at 2.0c. Is it likely to happen? Climate change and climate variability are now real and a stable situation is not likely to be achieved soon.

BUET Workshop 14 th Novembver 2009 I. Major Climate Change concerns

BUET Workshop 14 th Novembver 2009 Variations of the Earths Surface Temperature

BUET Workshop 14 th Novembver 2009

Role of Human Systems on Global Warming Blue Band - natural; Red band Man made

BUET Workshop 14 th Novembver 2009 Global Warming Sea Level Rise Snow Cover SPM (IPCC, 2007)

BUET Workshop 14 th Novembver 2009 Comparison of Yearly Mean Temperature Global Bangladesh Northern Hemisphere Dhaka

BUET Workshop 14 th Novembver 2009 Temperature Trend in Maijdee Court The regression equation shows that annual average temperature has an increasing tendency and has increased by 0.86C from 1952 to 2001 Source: Study report on Extreme Hydrological events

BUET Workshop 14 th Novembver 2009 Projected impacts of climate change 1C2C5C4C3C Sea level rise threatens major cities Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly developing regions Food Water Ecosystems Risk of Abrupt and Major Irreversible Changes Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial) 0C Falling yields in many developed regions Rising number of species face extinction Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system Significant fall in water availability e.g. Mediterranean and Southern Africa Small mountain glaciers disappear melt-water supplies threatened in several areas Extensive Damage to Coral Reefs Extreme Weather Events Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding, heat waves Possible rising yields in some high latitude regions Source: stern review

BUET Workshop 14 th Novembver 2009

Flood Inundation Depth Map Existing Condition Land Level (m PWD) Inundation Depth (m) 7.00-19.00 4.00- 7.00 2.00- 4.00 0.00- 2.00 0.00- 0.15 0.15- 0.30 0.30- 0.60 0.60- 0.90 0.90- 1.80 1.80- 3.60 Above 3.60 No Sea Level Rise Upstream flow: Average Year (Year 2000 flow) Land Level (m PWD) Inundation Depth (m) 7.00-19.00 4.00- 7.00 2.00- 4.00 0.00- 2.00 0.00- 0.15 0.15- 0.30 0.30- 0.60 0.60- 0.90 0.90- 1.80 1.80- 3.60 Above 3.60 Upstream flow: Average Year (Year 2000 flow) Land Level (m PWD) Inundation Depth (m) 7.00-19.00 4.00- 7.00 2.00- 4.00 0.00- 2.00 0.00- 0.15 0.15- 0.30 0.30- 0.60 0.60- 0.90 0.90- 1.80 1.80- 3.60 Above 3.60 Upstream flow: Average Year (Year 2000 flow) Land Level (m) PWD) Inundation Depth (m) 7.00-19.00 4.00- 7.00 2.00- 4.00 0.00- 2.00 0.00- 0.15 0.15- 0.30 0.30- 0.60 0.60- 0.90 0.90- 1.80 1.80- 3.60 Above 3.60 Land Level (m PWD) Inundation Depth (m) 7.00-19.00 4.00- 7.00 2.00- 4.00 0.00- 2.00 0.00- 0.15 0.15- 0.30 0.30- 0.60 0.60- 0.90 0.90- 1.80 1.80- 3.60 Above 3.60 Upstream flow: Average Year (Year 2000 flow) Flood Inundation Depth Map: Projection Year 2015 Sea Level Rise 10 cm Flood Inundation Depth Map: Projection Year 2030 Sea Level Rise 14 cm Flood Inundation Depth Map: Projection Year 2050 Sea Level Rise 32 cm Flood Inundation Depth Map: Projection Year 2100 Sea Level Rise 88 cm

International Union for Conservation of Nature14 TH November 2009 Vulnerabilities Physical Vulnerability Context Extreme Temperat ure Sea Level RiseDroughtFloodCyclone and Storm Surges ErosionSectoral Vulnerability Context River Flood Flash Flood Coastal Inundation Salinity Intrusion ++++++++ +++++-Crop Agriculture ++++ ++-Fisheries ++ ++++++ -Livestock +++ -- +++++Infrastructure +++++++- + -Industries +++ +++++-Biodiversity ++++ ++ - -Health ----+++++ Human Settlement +++-++-+-Energy

BUET Workshop 14 th Novembver 2009 Comments of Rural Communities (IUCN 2003) Excessive rainfall at times, untimely and irregular heavy rain, Increase in tidal bores, increase in number of cyclonic conditions, variation in tidal flow Increase in frequency of flash flood, Temperature variation, change of seasonal cycle, cloudy and cold winter, increase in droughts and dry spells, Storms and hailstorms,, Increased surface temperature, Intensity of mist/fog increased in the winter.

BUET Workshop 14 th Novembver 2009 Options for Adaptation FLOOD MANAGEMENT Flood management Dams and reservoirs flood management infrastructure dykes/embankment/ polder/ levee/bund sluices, pump stations, flood Evacuation shelters Evacuation Shelter management Flood forecasting system Lead time, Language Dissemination Drought Management Barrages Irrigation facilities, pump stations, tube wells.

BUET Workshop 14 th Novembver 2009 Options for Adaptation Storm surge and Cyclone/Typhoon/ Hurricane Coastal dykes/embankment/ polder/levee Coastal aforestation Cyclone Shelters Evacuation Shelter management Cyclone forecasts and Warning Lead time, Language Dissemination Erosion control measures River training Capacity enhancement for Disaster Management Capacity of local level institutions GO-NGO relationship

BUET Workshop 14 th Novembver 2009 Where are our concerns North: Compromise with life style Snow melting & dry ski-slopes Floods Impact on ecosystem Hurricanes and typhoons Sea level rise Health issues Malaria Heat waves Capacity to cope with disasters Reduction of green house gas emission level South: Food and livelihood security Urban drainage problems Floods and cyclone : forecasting and warning dissemination Improvements in IWRM including resolution of trans- boundary waters. Salinity increase & sea level rise River and coastal erosion Disaster management Understanding impact on ecosystem Question of future survival

BUET Workshop 14 th Novembver 2009 II. Progress up to Bali

BUET Workshop 14 th Novembver 2009 Global Responses The international political response to climate change began with adoption of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) in 1992. Calls for all signatories including developing countries: to develop their inventories of GHG emission; formulate and implement national and regional programs related to mitigation and adaptation; Promote and cooperate in development, application, diffusion, including transfer of technologies aimed at GHG emission reduction; Promote sinks of Green House Gases; Cooperate in adaptation to impacts of climate change; Promote and cooperate in increasing the scientific understanding and in education training and awareness raising. These initiatives should be reflected in National Communications. Annex-1 countries have prepared 4 th Communication, developing countries have submitted 1 st Communication and preparing 2 nd Communication.

BUET Workshop 14 th Novembver 2009 Goals set out in 1992 through UNFCCC Stabilization of the GHG concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climatic system. Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient: To allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change. To ensure that food production is not threatened, and To enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.

BUET Workshop 14 th Novembver 2009 Global Response (cont...) Parties to the UNFCCC adopted the Kyoto Protocol (KP) with the unprecedented, legally enforced ambition of limiting and reducing the greenhouse gas emissions. Annex-I countries have a target to bring down the GHG emission, individually or jointly, by at least by 5%below 1990 levels in the first commitment period of 2008 to 2012. Countries are to make demonstrable progress in achieving their commitments by 2005. Is it happening? --- No. Negotiation for post 2012 period has been initiated through Bali Action Plan. Heads of Govt. met in New York on 24 th September 2007; Ministers and senior officials met on 11-12 th February 2008.

BUET Workshop 14 th Novembver 2009 III. Outcome of Bali COP ( COP13/MOP3)

BUET Workshop 14 th Novembver 2009 Bali action Plan 13 th COP held in Bali launched a comprehensive process to enable the full, effective and sustained implementation of the UNFCCC through long- term action, now, up to and beyond 2012, in order to reach an agreed outcome and adopt a decision at COP-15. The process will produce: A shared vision for long-term cooperative action, Set long term global goal for emission reductions, To achieve ultimate objective of the UNFCCC, and Uphold the principles of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, and Take into account social and economic conditions and other relevant factors. The process will address: Enhanced national/international action on Mitigation Enhanced action on Adaptation, Enhanced action on Technology development and transfer to support action on Mitigation and Adaptation, Enhanced action on provision of Financial Resources and investment to support action on Mitigation and adaptation and technology cooperation.

BUET Workshop 14 th Novembver 2009 Enhanced action on Mitigation By all developed countries Quantified emission limitation and reduction objectives Nationally appropriate mitigation commitments or actions: Measurable, Reportable, and Verifiable. By all developing countries Nationally appropriate mitigation actions, Supported and enabled by technology, finance and capacity-building, in the context of sustainable development : Measurable, Reportable, and Verifiable. Positive incentives on REDD

BUET Workshop 14 th Novembver 2009 Enhanced action on Adaptation International cooperation to support urgent implementation of Adaptation actions through: Assessment of Vulnerability Prioritization of actions Financial needs assessment Development of risk reduction and disaster management strategies Integration of climate considerations into sectoral and national planning Support programme for capacity building in formulating programmes and projects to address the adaptation needs. Financial mechanism to support the implementation of activities. Development of new and innovative support mechanisms such as insurance etc.

BUET Workshop 14 th Novembver 2009 Enhanced action on Technology transfer Technology development and transfer to support action on Mitigation and Adaptation by: Scaling up of the development and transfer of technology to developing countries through effective mechanisms and enhanced means for removal of obstacles to, and provision of financial and other incentives. Accelerated deployment, diffusion and transfer of affordable environmentally sound technologies, Cooperation in research and development of current, new and innovative technology.

BUET Workshop 14 th Novembver 2009 Enhanced action on Finance Positive incentives for emission reduction activities of developing countrys. Financing for implementation of adaptation actions. Mobilization of public- and Private-sector funding and investment, including facilitation of carbon- friendly investment choices Improved access to adequate, predictable and sustainable financial resources including concessional funding.

BUET Workshop 14 th Novembver 2009 IV. Bali Action Plan and Road to Copenhagen

BUET Workshop 14 th Novembver 2009 Bali Action Plan and Road to Copenhagen Road Map for long-term action, now, up to and beyond 2012 as international response to Climate Change has been agreed upon. Mitigation is no longer a task for only Annex-1 or developed countries. Developing as well as LDCs are also obligated to push for GHG reduction. China, India, Indonesia etc. are also major polluters. Ad Hoc Working Group (AWG) on long term Cooperative Action has been set up. AWG will complete its work in 2009 and present their outcome in COP 15 in Copenhagen. First session of the AWG was held in Bangkok in March 2008. 3 more sessions in 2008. ( June, September and December). At least 4 sessions in 2009. Bangladesh submitted Bangladeshs position on the Bali Action Plan in February 2008.

BUET Workshop 14 th Novembver 2009 V. What we are doing

BUET Workshop 14 th Novembver 2009 A strong compliance regime is required. Efforts should be made to ensure that global mean temperature will not increase beyond 2 c. ( some countries are trying to make a realistic estimate of 3 c. A deep emission cut is needed. IPCC suggested that developed counties need to reduce their emission, below 1990 level, by 25-40% by 2020, for stabilization at 450-550 ppm. Peaking date is very important. Larger alliance among developing countries on post Kyoto situation. Additional funds commitment for adaptation needs and its disbursement mechanism. Binding adaptation funds Technology transfer at an affordable price Some negotiation issues at global level

BUET Workshop 14 th Novembver 2009 Bangladeshs Climate Change Strategy Basic premises Synergy with a globally negotiated strategy while Adaptation Plan has to be based on national context Accepts Bali Action Plan and its 4 building blocks: adaptation, mitigation, technology transfer and adequate financial flows Security of food, water, energy and livelihood must be inviolate for any climate change strategy and action. Adaptation need arises due to GHG emission mainly by Annex 1 countries polluter pays principle; financial flows to be compensatory grants;

BUET Workshop 14 th Novembver 2009 Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan Released on 10 th September in London 2008; revised and updated in July 2009; waiting for approval 6 Thematic Areas Food Security, Social Protection and Health (9) Comprehensive Disaster management (4) Infrastructure (7) Research and Knowledge Management (5) Mitigation and Low Carbon Development (7) Capacity Building and Institutional Strengthening (5) 37 programmes ; 4 new programme added BCCSAP is a living document; updating will be necessary at intervals based on better understanding of issues as they emerge; Key issues in taking BCCSAP forward are: financing, institutional arrangement and coordination, coordination with donors, etc; Food Security; water security; livelihood security; energy security and health security be ensured Progress towards sustainable development and achievements in attaining MDGs are not hampered.

BUET Workshop 14 th Novembver 2009 Bangladeshs Climate Change Strategy Basic premises Synergy with a globally negotiated strategy while Adaptation Plan (NAPA) as well as Mitigation Plan (NAMA) have to be based in national context Accepts Bali Action Plan and its 4 building blocks: adaptation, mitigation, technology transfer and adequate financial flows Security of food, water, energy and livelihood must be inviolate for any climate change strategy and action. Adaptation need arises due to GHG emission mainly by Annex-1 countries polluter pays principle; financial flows to be compensatory grants; ( Role of the World Bank and GEF is being debated).

BUET Workshop 14 th Novembver 2009 Theme 1: Food Security, Social Protection and Health P1. Institutional capacity for research towards climate resilient cultivars and their dissemination P2. Development of climate resilient cropping systems P3. Adaptation against drought P4. Adaptation in fisheries sector P5. Adaptation in livestock sector P6. Adaptation in health sector P7. Water and sanitation programme in climate vulnerable areas P8. Livelihood protection in ecologically fragile areas P9. Livelihood protection of vulnerable socio-economic groups (including women)

BUET Workshop 14 th Novembver 2009 On Road to Copenhagen .. Intense negotiations going on; drafts on website. Must understand group dynamics. G77 and China EU USA Umbrella Group Environmental Integrity Group AOSIS LDC Arab league Africa Group

BUET Workshop 14 th Novembver 2009 USAs position ... Declared their position a few weeks back. Recognizes the magnitude and seriousness of what science demands. Commits to reach a strong international agreement in Copenhagen based on robust targets and ambitious actions that will be embodied in US domestic law and on the premise that the agreement will reflect the important national actions of all countries with significant emissions (countries with greater responsibility/capability) ( LDCs left out) Proposes to identify desirable global indicators. Parties to implement nationally appropriate Mitigation Action Plans as shown in Appendix -1 (in place of Annex-1). Proposes up to 2020 as next commitment period. Supports REDD related activities. Proposes to develop robust Adaptation framework. Recognizes the need for a dramatic increase in flow of resources for both adaptation and Mitigation.

BUET Workshop 14 th Novembver 2009 THANK YOU

BUET Workshop 14 th Novembver 2009 What is Climate Change? A combined long term effect of rising global temperature leading to changes in air and oceanic.

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