Bloomberg Intelligence: US Communications Outlook 2015

Bloomberg IntelligenceCommunications Outlook

Let’s examine some intriguing trends expected for 2015 in the

communications sector:

U.S. Advertising & Marketing

Global programmatic ads, or the automated buying and selling of ad inventory, may rise 33% to $28 billion in 2015, according to MagnaGlobal. The U.S. dominates and at $14 billion will account for 50% of the global market.

Display ads are rising 20% a year, which may lead worldwide programmatic trading to grow to $53 billion by 2018. Ad agencies are stepping up programmatic investments to avoid being cut by advertisers, who can make purchases directly.

Publicis is raising its digital exposure to 50% by 2015 on its recent $3.7 billion purchase of Sapient. This re-ignited ad M&A after the failed $35 billion merger of Publicis and Omnicom in 2014.

Havas has said that it will make acquisitions in Southeast Asia even though it has been mentioned by Sir Martin Sorrell and others in the industry as an M&A target. Dentsu and WPP have said that they are interested in small to mid-sized deals, and Interpublic said that it sets aside $200 million annually for M&A.

U.S. Cable & Satellite

Streaming services may unravel the traditional video bundle and disrupt the $200 billion pay-TV market in 2015.

HBO will launch direct-to-consumer streaming subscriptions, targeting broadband-only homes without pay-TV connection. The move could drive pay-TV subscribers to cut the cord or trim packages.

This follows CBS’s recent introduction of a streaming service for its broadcast network. MagnaGlobal projects over-the-top homes, or those that receive video via streaming services, to rise 26% to 8 million in 2015.

Two mega pay-TV deals expected to close in 2015, with approval from the FCC ad Justice Department, would reorder the industry’s competitive landscape.

AT&T’s purchase of DirecTV would create the second-largest pay-TV operator with 26 million subscribers after the 30 million subscriber Comcast-Time Warer Cable combination. Should the deals go through, they may spur M&A among other cable operators seeking to build scale. Dish may pursue T-Mobile, parter with a wireless carrier or possibly just sell only its spectrum.

U.S. Entertainment

Entertainment M&A has been heating up and may gain steam in 2015, spurred by mega pay-TV deals. Even as Time Warner rejected Fox’s bid and Softbank’s M&A talks with DreamWorks ended quickly, DreamWorks may seek a different deal following the end of its merger talks with Hasbro.

Starz executives met with Fox about a possible aqcuisition as smaller networks go after deals to gain leverage in pay-TV negotiations. RealD rejected Starboard’s takeover offer while MSG may split its sports and event businesses.

Most media companies including Discovery, Viacom and Time Warner posted weak ad results as 2014 progressed, fueling concerns about a slowing ad market and the possibility of a secular decline into 2015.

TV ads are losing out to online platforms that are becoming a large component of most ad campaigns. The total upfront market declined 5% in 2014, with cable networks dropping for the first time since 2009. Magna projects a 1% dip in 2015 U.S. TV ads to $66.9 billion.

Bloomberg Intelligence offers valuable industry and company data, interactive charting and written analysis with government and credit insights from a team of independent experts, giving trading and investment professionals deep insight into where crucial industries stand today and where they may be heading next.