Top Banner
Exhibit 2: Key Figures for European Telecom Companies P/E EV/Sales Beta Telecom Italia (TI) 76.04 114.87 12.01 3.62 34.55 0.79 Deutsche Telekom (DT) 67.91 119.06 12.01 1.98 6.12 1.43 France Telecom (FTE) 54.41 100.94 11.11 2.14 5.7 2.00 British Telecom (BTY) 23.92 37.61 10.17 1.32 4.14 1.37 Swisscom (SCM) 18.00 18.79 15.04 2.03 7.64 0.53 Koninklijke KPN NV (K 15.99 23.61 12.8 1.91 4.71 1.73 Telekom Austria (TKA) 5.89 9.91 27.54 2.45 6.76 0.64 Average 14.38 2.21 9.95 1.21 Source:finance.yahoo.com - March 5, 2004 Market Cap EUR b Enterpri se Value EUR b EV/ EBITDA
20

Belgacom IPO

Jan 16, 2016

Download

Documents

Sajjad Ahmad

Belgacom IPO
Welcome message from author
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Page 1: Belgacom IPO

Exhibit 2: Key Figures for European Telecom Companies

P/E EV/Sales Beta EV/MktCap

Telecom Italia (TI) 76.04 114.87 12.01 3.62 34.55 0.79 1.51Deutsche Telekom (DT) 67.91 119.06 12.01 1.98 6.12 1.43 1.75France Telecom (FTE) 54.41 100.94 11.11 2.14 5.7 2.00 1.86British Telecom (BTY) 23.92 37.61 10.17 1.32 4.14 1.37 1.57Swisscom (SCM) 18.00 18.79 15.04 2.03 7.64 0.53 1.04Koninklijke KPN NV (KPN 15.99 23.61 12.8 1.91 4.71 1.73 1.48Telekom Austria (TKA) 5.89 9.91 27.54 2.45 6.76 0.64 1.68Average 14.38 2.21 9.95 1.21 1.56Source:finance.yahoo.com - March 5, 2004

RFMKT RISK P

Market Cap

EUR b

Enterprise ValueEUR b

EV/EBITDA

Page 2: Belgacom IPO

0.520.821.080.870.511.170.380.76

4%5%

7.82%

Beta Assets

Page 3: Belgacom IPO

AssumptionsGrowth rates

fix 1% Cost of debt 5%mobile 1% Tax rate 34%

intl 1% Payout ratio 50%Depreciation 0%

Income Statement 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Sales 5,454 5,509 5,455 5,510 5,456 5,511EBITDA

Fix 1,109 1,120 1,131 1,143 1,154 1,166Mobile 1,113 1,124 1,135 1,147 1,158 1,170

Intl 28 28 29 29 29 29EBITDA 2,250 2,273 2,295 2,318 2,341 2,365

Depreciations 787 787 787 787 787 7870 0 0 0 0 0

EBIT 1,463 1,486 1,508 1,531 1,554 1,578Interest 27 26 26 26 26 26Taxes 208 496 504 512 520 528Minority interest 154 156 157 159 160 162Net Income 1,074 808 821 835 848 862

Statement of cash flowsNet income 1,074 808 821 835 848 862

Minority interest 154 156 157 159 160 162

Depreciation 787 787 787 787 787 7870 0 0 0 0 0

733 0 0 0 0 0Cash flow from operation 1,282 1,750 1,765 1,780 1,796 1,811Capex 485 787 787 787 787 787Free cash flow 797 963 978 993 1,009 1,024Dividend 440 404 411 417 424 431Dividends to minority 78 79 79 80 81

0 -1,000 0 0 0 0D Debt 0 0 0 0 0 0Cash flow from financing -440 -1,482 -489 -497 -504 -512Change in cash -518 489 497 504 512

Balance sheetFixed Assets 4,381 4,381 4,381 4,381 4,381 4,381WCR 78 78 78 78 78 78Cash & ST invest. 110 -408 81 577 1,082 1,594

4,569 4,051 4,540 5,036 5,541 6,053

Book equity 2,548 1,952 2,362 2,780 3,204 3,635Minority interest 446 524 602 682 762 843Provisions and pensions 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050Debt (interest bearing) 525 525 525 525 525 525

4,569 4,051 4,540 5,036 5,541 6,053

D Provisions

D ProvisionsD WCR

D Equity

Page 4: Belgacom IPO

FCF 100 100 100 -100= DIV 100 50 50 50- Var Equity 0 0 -50- Var Debt 0 -20 0+ Var Cash 0 30 0 -150

Page 5: Belgacom IPO

-10050

15000

Page 6: Belgacom IPO

# shares 400 mEarnings 808 mRF 4%Mkt Risk Premiupm 5%Beta Assets 0.76Cost of capital 7.800%

Belgacom as a cash cowValue 10,359 Price/sh 25.90

Payout 50%RORE 8%Div 404g 4.00%

Value 10,632 Price/share 26.58

Page 7: Belgacom IPO

Key figures for European telecom companies

$/€ 1.2164Billion USD Market Cap Enterprise P/E forw EV/Sales EV/EBITDA BetaTelecom Italia (TI) 92.5 139.73 12.01 3.62 34.55 0.79Deutsche Telekom (DT) 82.6 144.82 12.01 1.98 6.12 1.432France Telecom (FTE) 66.18 122.78 11.11 2.14 5.7 1.999British Telecom (BTY) 29.1 45.75 10.17 1.32 4.14 1.365Swisscom (SCM) 21.9 22.86 15.04 2.03 7.64 0.528Koninklijke KPN NV (KPN) 19.45 28.72 12.8 1.91 4.71 1.733Telekom Austria (TKA) 7.16 12.06 27.54 2.45 6.76 0.638

Source:finance.yahoo.com - March 5, 2004

Exhibit 2: Key Figures for European Telecom Companies

P/E EV/Sales EV/EBITDA Beta

Telecom Italia (TI) 76.04 114.87 12.01 3.62 34.55 0.79Deutsche Telekom (DT) 67.91 119.06 12.01 1.98 6.12 1.43France Telecom (FTE) 54.41 100.94 11.11 2.14 5.7 2.00British Telecom (BTY) 23.92 37.61 10.17 1.32 4.14 1.37Swisscom (SCM) 18.00 18.79 15.04 2.03 7.64 0.53Koninklijke KPN NV (KPN) 15.99 23.61 12.80 1.91 4.71 1.73Telekom Austria (TKA) 5.89 9.91 27.54 2.45 6.76 0.64Average 14.38 2.21 9.95 1.21Source:finance.yahoo.com - March 5, 2004

Market CapEUR b

Enterprise ValueEUR b

Page 8: Belgacom IPO

EV/MktCap Beta Asset1.51 0.521.75 0.821.86 1.081.57 0.871.04 0.511.48 1.171.68 0.38

0.76

EV/MktCap

1.511.751.861.571.041.481.681.56

Page 9: Belgacom IPO

2001 2002 2003 SourceRevenuesRevenues total 5467 6422 5454 F-3Non recurrent revenues 0 1085 0 F-3Revenues recurrent 5467 5337 5454 F-3Fixed line 3422 3188 3108 p 52Mobile 2077 2075 2181 p 55International 606 625 626 p 57

Sum 6105 5888 5915Inter-segments 638 551 461 p 52, 55, 57Revenues recurrent 5467 5337 5454

EBITDAFixed line 1136 1008 1109 p 52 33.2% 31.6% 35.7%Mobile 853 1006 1113 p 55 41.1% 48.5% 51.0%International 37 6 28 p 57 6.1% 1.0% 4.5%EBITDA recurrent 2026 2020 2250Non recurrent expenses 62 764 897 F-3EBITDA 1964 2341 1353

Depreciations and amortisation 829 859 787

EBITEBIT recurrent 1197 1161 1463EBIT 1135 1482 566

Financial costs 26 25 27 F-3Consolidation 25 12 4 F-3

Earnings befores taxesrecurrent 1146 1124 1432total 1084 1445 535

Taxes 429 203 208 39.6% 14.0% 38.9%Minority interests 102 99 154Net Incomerecurrent 615 822 1070total 553 1143 173

Number shares 400 401 402EPS recurrent 1.5375 2.049875 2.661692

D19
Tranfer of pension fund to state
Page 10: Belgacom IPO

2001 2002 2003Fixed Assets 5,127 4,601 4,381Current Assets (non cash) 1,230 1,084 1,518Cash 808 1,612 110

7,165 7,297 6,009

Book equity 2,630 2,978 2,548Minority interests 205 293 446LT Interest bearing debt 827 547 371Pensions 1,252 1,545 840Provisions 195 209 210Other LT debt 54 61 49ST interest bearing debts 474 78 154Other ST debts 1,528 1,586 1,391

7,165 7,297 6,009

Fixed Assets 5,127 4,601 4,381WCR -352 -563 78Cash and ST investment 808 1,612 110

5,583 5,650 4,569

Book equity 2,630 2,978 2,548Pensions 1,252 1,545 840Provisions 195 209 210 2002 2003Minority interests 205 293 446 88 153Interest bearing debt 1,301 625 525 99 154

5,583 5,650 4,569

Page 11: Belgacom IPO

in balance sheet

Page 12: Belgacom IPO

2001 2002 2003Cash flow from operation activities before WCRCash flow from operation activities 1687 1062 1030Non recurrentRevenues 0 1085 0Non recurrent expenses 62 764 897Recurrent Cash flow from operation activities 1749 741 1927

Variation WCR 29 -310 733Cash flow from operation 1658 1372 297

Cash flow from investment activities -1104 710 -485

Free cash flow 554 2082 -188

Dividend 296 663 440D Capital 0 0 -325D Minority interest 28 -11 0D Debt 313 -605 -57

45 -1279 -822

599 803 -1010D cash 601 521 -764D ST investment -2 281 -246

599 802 -1010

Page 13: Belgacom IPO

Buy back 2004Number of shares 400,000,000 Cancellation of 2003 Amount

buyback Price per shaShareholders Number shar

Belgian State 200,000,001 50.00% 200,000,001 51.60% 200,000,001ADSB 177,619,040 44.40% 177,619,040 45.82% 0Dexia 3,750,000 0.94% 3,750,000 0.97% 3,750,000KBC 3,750,000 0.94% 3,750,000 0.97% 3,750,000Sofina 2,500,000 0.63% 2,500,000 0.64% 2,500,000Belgacom 12,380,950 3.10% 0 0.00% 38,095,238Public 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 139,523,802Total 399,999,991 387,619,041 387,619,041

9

399,932,16067,840

187,619,040

Page 14: Belgacom IPO

Buy back 20041000000000

26.2538,095,238

51.6%0.00%0.97%0.97%0.64%9.83%36.0%

Page 15: Belgacom IPO

TaxRate 0%Beta Equity EV/MktCap D/E BetaAsset

Telecom Italia 0.79 1.51 0.51 0.52Deutsche Telecom 1.43 1.75 0.75 0.82France Telecom 2 1.86 0.86 1.08British Telecom 1.37 1.57 0.57 0.87Swisscom 0.53 1.04 0.04 0.51KPN 1.73 1.48 0.48 1.17Telekom Austria 0.64 1.68 0.68 0.38Average 1.21 0.76

1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 20

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

EV/MktCap

Be

taE

qu

ity

Page 16: Belgacom IPO

1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 20

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

EV/MktCap

Be

taE

qu

ity

Page 17: Belgacom IPO

Valuation

Risk-free interest rate 5% Sales 5,509Market risk premium 6% EBITDA 2,273Beta asset 0.87 Earnings 808 Beta assetrA 10.22%# shares 400 mEarnings 2004 808 mPayout 50%EPS 2004 2.02Value as cash cow 19.77g min 5.11%DPS 2004 1.01Value as cash cow 19.77g min + 1% 5.61%Value 21.91

Assumptions:Risk-free interest rate 5%Market risk premium 6%Beta asset 0.87rA 10.22%Long term growth rate 3%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Free cash flow unlevered 980 995 1,011 1,026 1,041VU 12,931 13,272 13,633 14,016 14,423PVTS 179V 13,110Share buy back 1,000Pension & prov 1,050 ComparablesFinancial debt 525 EV/Sales 2.35Minority 1,639 EV/EBITDA 5.69Equity value 8,896.10 P/E 11.02Price per share 22.24

V 13,450Share buy back 1,000Pension & prov 1,050Financial debt 525Minority 1,681Equity value 9,193.60Price per share 22.98

Using the WACCAssumptionsTax rate 34%Risk-free interest rate 5%Market risk premium 6%

Page 18: Belgacom IPO

Beta asset 0.87rA 10.22%Long term growth rate 3%Leverage L=D/V 25%

WACC calculationUsing MM 9.35%rE 11.37%WACC traditional 9.35%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Free cash flow unlevered 980 995 1,011 1,026 1,041V 14,686 15,079 15,493 15,932 16,396Share buy back 1000Pension & prov 1050Financial debt 525Minority 1,836Equity value 10,275.11Price per share 25.69

Page 19: Belgacom IPO

Long term growth rate1% 2% 3% 4%

0.50 25.13 29.12 34.70 43.070.75 19.61 22.10 25.35 29.781.00 15.75 17.42 19.50 22.181.25 12.90 14.08 15.50 17.26