Automobiles Sector Overview - 2014

15.9

34.0

FY13 FY20

Two wheelers (million units)

3.2

8.6

FY13 FY21

Passenger vehicles (million units)

Source: IHS, NEMMP 2020, ACMA, Aranca Research;

Note: E – Estimate

By 2020, India's share in the

global passenger vehicle

market to double to 8 per cent

from 4 per cent over 2010–11

Third-largest automobile

industry by 2016E

Two–wheeler sales to rise from

15.9 million in FY2013 to 34.0

million by FY2020E

World’s second-largest two

wheeler manufacturer

Passenger vehicle sales to

increase from 3.2 million in

FY2013 to 8.6 million in

FY2021E

Passenger vehicle sales to

nearly triple by 2020E

CAGR: 11%

4%

8%

2010 2020

India's share in global passenger vehicle market

CAGR: 13%

Growing demand

Source: Automotive Mission Plan (2006–2016)

Notes: R&D – Research and Development; FDI – Foreign Direct Investment; FY – Indian Financial Year (April – March);

FY16E – Estimated figure for Financial Year 2016

Growing demand

• Strong growth in demand due to rising income, middle class, and a young population is likely to propel India among the world’s top five auto manufacturers by 2015

• Growth in export demand is set to accelerate

Innovation opportunities

• Tata Nano and the upcoming Pixel have opened up the potentially large ultra low-cost car segment

• Innovation is likely to intensify among engine technology and alternative fuels

Policy support

• The government aims to develop India as a global manufacturing as well as R&D hub

• There has been a wide array of policy support in the form of sops, taxes and FDI encouragement

Rising investments

• India has significant cost advantages; auto firms save 10-25 per cent on operations vis-à-vis Europe and Latin America

• A large pool of skilled manpower and a growing technology base would induce greater investments

FY10

Market

size:

USD57.7

billion

FY16E

Market

size:

USD145

billion

Advantage

India

Source: Tata Motors, Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), Aranca Research

Note: JV – Joint Venture

• Closed market

• Five players

• Long waiting

periods and

outdated models

• Seller’s market

• Joint venture (JV):

Indian government and

Suzuki formed Maruti

Udyog; commenced

production in 1983

• Component

manufacturers entered

the market via JV

• Buyer’s market

• Sector de-licensed in

1993

• Major original

equipment

manufacturers (OEMs)

started assembly

operations in India

• Imports permitted from

April 2001

• Introduction of value-

added tax in 2005

• More than 35 market

players

• Removal of most import

controls

• Indian companies gaining

acceptance on a global

scale

• Setting up of National

Automotive Board to act

as facilitator between the

government and industry

0.4 million

units (1982)

0.6 million

units (1992)

11 million

units (2007)

20.7 million

units (FY13)

Before 1982

1983–92

1993–2007

2008 onwards

Automobiles

Two-wheelers

Mopeds

Scooters

Motorcycles

Electric two-wheelers

Passenger vehicles

Passenger cars

Utility vehicles

Multi-purpose vehicles

Commercial vehicles

Light commercial

vehicles

Medium and heavy

commercial vehicles

Three-wheelers

Passenger carriers

Goods carriers

Revenue trends over the past few years

(USD million)

Source: SIAM, Datamonitor, Aranca Research

Note: * Does not include three wheelers

The gross turnover of automobile manufacturers in India expanded at a CAGR of 17.7 per cent over FY07-11

Excluding three wheelers, trucks accounted for the largest share of revenues (47.8 per cent in 2011)

Market* break-up by revenues (2011)

30.5

36.6 33.3

43.3

58.6

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

47.8%

31.8%

20.4%

Trucks

Cars

Two Wheelers

CAGR: 17.7%

Total production of automobiles in India (million units)

Source: SIAM, Aranca Research

Note: CAGR – Compound Annual Growth Rate

Production of automobiles increased at a CAGR of 11.8 per cent over FY05-13

Passenger vehicles was the fastest growing segment, representing a CAGR of 12.9 per cent

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.6

1.8

2.4

3.0

3.1

3.2

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.4

0.6

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.4

0.4

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.8

0.8

0.8

6.5

7.6

8.5

8

8.4

10

.5

13

.4 1

5.5

15

.9

FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

Passenger Vehicle Commercial Vehicle Three Wheelers Two Wheelers

Market share by volume (FY13) Two wheelers dominate production volumes; in FY13, the

segment accounted for about three quarters of the total

automotive production in the country

India is the world’s second-largest two wheeler

manufacturer and fourth-largest producer of commercial

vehicles

77%

15%

4% 4% Two Wheelers

Passenger Vehicle

CommercialVehicle

Three Wheelers


Share in production of passenger vehicles (FY13) Share in production of commercial vehicles (FY13)

80.7%

19.3%

Passenger cars

Utility vehicle

29.4%

70.6%

MCV & HCV

LCV


Notes: LCV – Light Commercial Vehicle;

MCV – Medium Commercial Vehicle;

HCV – Heavy Commercial Vehicle

Share in production of three-wheelers (FY13) Share in production of two-wheelers (FY13)

18.3%

81.7%

Goods Carrier

Passenger carrier


5.9%

78.7%

15.3%

Mopeds

Motorcycles

Scooters

Exports of automobiles from India (million units)

Automobile export volumes increased at a CAGR of 19.1 per cent over FY05–13

Two-wheeler segment reported the fastest growth (22.2 per cent) followed by three-wheelers (16.3 per cent) over FY05–13

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.1

1.5

2.0

2.0

FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13



Exports shares by volume (FY13) Two wheelers accounted for the largest share in exports (by

volume) at 67 per cent in FY13

Passenger vehicles comprised a sizeable 19 per cent of

overall exports

Exports of passenger vehicles registered the highest growth

at 9.02 per cent in FY13

19%

3%

11%

67%

Passenger Vehicle

CommercialVehicle

Three Wheelers

Two Wheelers


Growth forecast for sales


Note: E – Estimate, UV – Utility Vehicle

Auto sales across categories are estimated to rise 6-8 per

cent in FY14

Passenger vehicles are projected to grow 5-7 per cent in

FY14

Passenger car segment is estimated to expand 3-5

per cent

SUVs are projected to increase 11-13 per cent

Commercial vehicles are forecast to rise 7-9 per cent

LCVs are estimated to grow 10-12 per cent

MCVs and HCVs are projected to increase 1-3 per

cent

Three wheelers are estimated to rise 3-5 per cent in FY14

Two-wheelers are expected to grow 6-8 per cent in FY14

4%

27% 28%

12%

3%

8%

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E

Auto sales growth

Growth forecast for the auto segment

13%

33%

25%

3%

2%

7%

-33%

50%

33%

0%

-2%

9%

0%

20%

33%

0%

5%

5%

5%

25%

28%

16%

3%

8%

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E


16.8 22.0

30.0

FY13 FY15 FY20

Two & three wheelers (million units)

0.8 1.4

2.2

FY13 FY15 FY20

Commercial vehicles (million units)

3.2

5.0

9.0

FY13 FY15 FY20

Passenger vehicles (million units)

Passenger vehicles to increase at a CAGR of 16

per cent during FY2013–20

Commercial vehicles expected to register a CAGR

of 16 per cent during FY2013–20

Two and three wheelers projected to expand at a

CAGR of 9 per cent during FY2013–20

CAGR: 16%

CAGR: 16%

CAGR: 9%

Source: SIAM, Vision 2020, Aranca Research

The Indian luxury car market expanded at a CAGR of 30 per cent, with 23,000 units in 2011 (about 1 per cent of the passenger vehicle market in India). The market is dominated by players such as BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Jaguar

India has the world’s 12th-largest HNI population, with a growth of 20.8 per cent (highest among the top 12 countries)

With expansion in the education and realty sectors, and increasing wealth of IT professionals, more consumers aspire to own luxury cars

The Indian luxury car market is estimated to expand at a CAGR of 25 per cent during 2012–20 and reach 150,000 units by 2020 (accounting for 4 per cent of the estimated 6.8-million-unit domestic car market)

The luxury SUV segment is growing at about 50 per cent, while luxury sedans are increasing 25–30 per cent

Scenario

Key drivers

Notable

Trends

Source: World Wealth Report (2011) of Merrill Lynch Wealth Management and Capgemini, Aranca Research

Note: HNI - High Networth Individuals


Note: Data is for FY10

The automotives industry is concentrated with leaders in each segment commanding a share of over 40 per cent

Market leader Others

Passenger vehicles 45% 20% 10% 4%

MCVs & HCVs 63% 23% 7%

LCVs 59% 30% 4% 4%

Three wheelers 41% 40% 10%

Motorcycles 59% 24% 7% 6%

Scooters 51% 21% 14% 10%

New product launches • Large number of products available to consumers across various segments; this has

gathered pace with the entry of a number of foreign players

• Reduced overall product lifecycle have forced players to employ quick product launches

Improving product-

development

capabilities

• Increasing R&D investments from both the government and the private sector

• Private sector innovation has been a key determinant of growth in the sector; two good

examples are Tata Nano and Tata Pixel; while the former has been a success in India, the

latter is intended for foreign markets

Alternative fuels

• In FY11, the CNG market was worth more than USD330 million; CNG cars and taxis are

expected to register a CAGR of 28 per cent over FY11–FY14

• The CNG distribution network in India is expected to increase to 250 cities by 2018 from

30 cities in 2009

New financing options

• Carmakers such as BMW, Audi, Toyota, Skoda, Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz have

started providing customised finance to customers through NBFCs

• Major MNC and Indian corporate houses are moving towards taking cars on operating

lease instead of buying them

Note: NBFCs - Non-Banking Finance Companies

Strong

government

support

Growing demand

Inviting Resulting in

Growing demand Increasing

investments Policy support

Rising income,

young population

Greater

availability of

credit and

financing options

Strong growth in

exports

Goal of

establishing India

as an auto-

manufacturing hub

R&D focus; GOI

has set up a

technology

modernisation fund

Policy sops, FDI

encouragement

Rising

investments from

domestic and

foreign players

Greater product

innovation; market

segmentation

Demand projected

to remain strong,

making returns

attractive

Note: GOI – Government of India

Increasing income and middle-class population

• GDP per capita has grown from USD1,432.25 in 2010 to

USD1,500.76 in 2012, and is expected to reach

USD1,869.34 by 2018

• Apart from the impact of rising incomes, widening of the

consumer base will also be aided by expansion of the

middle class, increasing urbanisation, and changing

lifestyles

• A young population is boosting demand for cars

• Demand for commercial vehicles increased due to the

development of roadways and greater market access

Changing income dynamics of India’s population

Source: IMF, McKinsey Quarterly, Aranca Research

1 3 7 2 6

17 12

25

29 35

40

32 50

26 15

2008 2020 2030

Globals (>18412.8) Strivers (9206.4-18412.8)

Seekers (3682.5 - 9206.4) Aspirers (1657-3682.5)

Deprived (<1657)

Million Household,100%

222 273 322

Easy availability of credit

• Greater access to credit eases the purchase of

passenger and commercial vehicles

• The auto finance industry has grown at the rate of 13 per

cent over FY08-13; the car finance penetration has

increased from 68 per cent – 70 per cent in FY08-10 to

70 per cent – 72 per cent in FY11-13

• BMW, Audi, Toyota, Skoda, Volkswagen and Mercedes-

Benz have started providing customised finance to

customers, dealers and suppliers through dedicated

non-banking finance companies (NBFCs)

Indian car finance market size

Source: Kotak Mahindra Prime, Aranca Research

Note: Greater distributional efficiencies, increasing demand

(especially from rural areas) due to rising disposable incomes

have created new markets for products within the country

1.5 1.9 2.5 2.6 2.7

7.7 9.3

13.2 12.9

11.7


Car industry sales volume (mn) Car finance industry (USD bn)

Design and

engineering skills

Manufacturing

skills

Manpower

costs

Supplier

base

Raw

materials

East Asia

Korea

China

Thailand

Indonesia

Vietnam

Central & Eastern

Europe

Czech Republic

Romania

Poland

Slovakia

Russia

Hungary

Turkey

Latin America Brazil

Mexico

Less competitive than India In competition with India Source: ACMA, Aranca Research

Auto Policy 2002 • Automatic approval for foreign equity investment up to 100 per cent; no minimum

investment criteria

• Encourage R&D by offering rebates on R&D expenditure

Automotive Mission

Plan (AMP) 2006–16

• AMP’s vision is to make India a preferred destination for designing and manufacturing of

automobiles and achieve a market size of USD154 billion by 2016

• Setting up of a technology modernisation fund focussed on SMEs

• Establishment of automotive training institutes, auto design centres and special auto parks

NATRiPs

• Set up at a total cost of USD388.5 million to enable the industry to be on par with global

standards

• Nine R&D centres of excellence with focus on low-cost manufacturing and product

development solutions

Dept. of Heavy

Industries & Public

Enterprises

• Worked towards reduction of excise duty on small cars and increase budgetary allocation

for R&D

• Weighted increase in R&D expenditure to 200 per cent from 150 per cent (in-house) and

175 per cent from 125 per cent (outsourced)

Notes: SME – Small and Medium Enterprises, R&D - Research and Development, NATRiP – National Automotive Testing and R&D

Infrastructure Project, AMP - Automotive Mission, JNNURM - Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission

Union Budget FY14 • Proposal to allocate USD2.7 billion for JNNURM to bolster sales volumes of Medium and

Heavy Commercial Vehicles (MHCV)

• Business description

Vehicles Research & Development Establishment (VRDE), Ahmednagar

• Research, design, development and testing of vehicles

• Centre of excellence for photometry, electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) and

test tracks

Indore — National Automotive Test Tracks (NATRAX)

• Complete testing facilities for all vehicle categories

• Centre of excellence for vehicle dynamics and tyre development

Automotive Research Association of India (ARAI), Pune

• Services for all vehicle categories

• Centre of excellence for power-train development and material

Chennai Centre, Tamil Nadu • Complete homologation services for all vehicle categories

• Centre of excellence for infotronics, EMC and passive safety

Rae Bareilly Centre • Services to agri-tractors, off-road vehicles and a driver training centre

• Centre of excellence for accident data analysis

International Centre for Automotive Technology (iCAT), Manesar

• Services to all vehicle categories

• Centre of excellence for component development, noise vibration and

harshness (NVH) testing

Silchar Centre, Assam • Research, design, development and testing of vehicles

• Centre of excellence for photometry, EMC and test tracks

Source: ACMA, Aranca Research

Delhi–Gurgaon–

Faridabad

Kolkata–

Jamshedpur

Chennai– Bengaluru–

Hosur

Mumbai–Pune–

Nashik–

Aurangabad

List of companies

North

West

East

South

• Ashok

Leyland

• Force

Motors

• Piaggio

• Swaraj

Mazda

• Amtek

Auto

• Eicher

• Honda

SIEL

• Maruti

Suzuki

• Tata

Motors

• Bajaj Auto

• Hero

Group

• Ashok

Leyland

• Bajaj Auto

• FIAT

• GM

• M&M

• Eicher

• Skoda

• Bharat

Forge

• Tata

Motors

• Volkswag

en

• Renault-

Nissan

• M&M

• Tata

Motors

• Hindustan

Motors

• Simpson

& Co

• Internatio

nal Auto

Forgings

• JMT

• Exide

• Ashok

Leyland

• Ford

• M&M

• Toyota

Kirloskar

• Volvo

• Sundaram

Fasteners

• Enfield

• Hyundai

• BMW

• Bosch

• TVS

Motor

Company

• Renault-

Nissan

Source: Aranca Research

Note: All figures as of 2011-12

WEST: Maharashtra, and

Gujarat are hubs for

heavy and light vehicle

manufacturing

EAST: Jamshedpur is the

site for Tata’s heavy

vehicle manufacturing

SOUTH: Chennai hosts

manufacturing plants for

heavy and light vehicles

NORTH WEST: Rajasthan is

a major hub for light vehicle

manufacturing

NORTH: Delhi is a hub for light

vehicle manufacturing, whereas

Haryana and Uttarakhand are

hubs for heavy vehicle

manufacturing

Heavy Vehicle Manufacturing Plant

Light Vehicle Manufacturing Plant

Revenue trends over the past few years

(USD billion)

Source: Department of Industrial Policy & Promotion (India),

Aranca Research

FDI inflows in the automotives sector aggregated USD8.3 billion (4.3 per cent of the total FDI) over April 2000 – March

2013

1.2 1.2

1.3

0.9

1.5


FDI in automobile industry (USD billion)

Delhi–Gurgaon–

Faridabad

Kolkata–

Jamshedpur

Chennai– Bengaluru–

Hosur

Mumbai–Pune–

Nashik–

Aurangabad

Ahmedabad

Source: Respective Company Websites, News Articles, Aranca Research

Global car majors have been ramping up investments in India to cater to the growing domestic demand. Also, these

manufacturers plan to leverage India’s competitive advantage to set up export-oriented production hubs

• Planning to double its current investment level of about USD2.5 billion over the next five years

• Aims to raise its market share from 1.5 per cent in FY13 to 10 per cent by FY17

• Investing in Chennai and Sanand plants to raise capacity to 0.44 million cars & 0.61 million engines by

FY14

• Long term strategy to export 25 per cent of vehicles and to make India compact car global production base

• Is in the process of expanding its dealer network from 33 in January 2013 to 50 by 2014 end

• Plans to raise the number of car offerings in the sub USD46,000 category

• Plans to launch up to eight models over the next 5–6 years

• Aims to invest USD460 million in Rajasthan plant by 2014 to build a new assembly line for cars

• This will include a new diesel engine component production and a forging plant

• Expects to invest another USD163 million at Bidadi plant near Bengaluru

• Plans to increase capacity to 310,000 units by 2013 with an investment of USD187 million

• Plans to invest USD552-737 million over the next two to three years to develop new products

• Plans to infuse USD46 million to double India capacity to 20,000 vehicles by the end of CY13

Source: Company Website, Aranca Research

1983 1994 1997 2001 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Roll-out of people’s

car (Maruti 800)

Capacity

expansion

Enhanced R&D

capability

Increased

productivity

Product portfolio

expansion

Continuing market

leadership

Product portfolio

comprising 16

passenger vehicle

models

Accounted for 45

per cent share in

the Indian car

market

Plans to produce

1.7 million cars by

2013

2011

Roll-out of 10

millionth car

1994

Production of

1 millionth car

In the process of

establishing

Suzuki’s largest

R&D facility

outside Japan

2012

Total sales

crossed 1million

units in FY12

Plans to setup

two facilities

in Gujarat


1945 1954 1961 1977 1982 1986 1991 1998 2005 2008 2010 2012

Joint ventures

Acquisitions

Enhancing

R&D capability

Product portfolio

expansion

Market expansion

Disruptive innovation JV with

Daimler AG

Production of

first

indigenously

designed LCV

Acquisition

of Jaguar

and

Landrover

Acquired

stake in

Hipo

Carrocera

SA

Launched

Indica, India's

first fully

indigenous

passenger car

Establishment

of Tata

Engineering &

Locomotives

Launch of the

first

indigenous

CV

Introduction

of

Megapixel,

an electric

vehicle

Launched

Tata Nano

Tata Nano sales FY 2010-13 (units)


Note: YOY – Year on Year

Tata Nano ranked among the top 10 best-selling cars of

2012. It was recently declared the most trusted four-wheeler

brand by ‘The Brand Trust Report, India Study 2013’

Nano was the only petrol car among the top-selling cars of

2012 to post a positive yoy growth. Tata adopted a different

marketing pitch and launched the 2012 Tata Nano, which

offered a lot of new features for no extra charge

Sales of the Nano more than doubled to 73,848 units in

FY13 from its launch in FY10

Currently, Tata exports Nano to Sri Lanka and Nepal and

has plans to export the car to Bangladesh. The company is

likely to add new export markets such as Africa, South

America, and Southeast Asia

Tata has launched a new variant of the Nano in 2013 and is

in the process of launching a new variant in 2014 to

augment sales. A CNG variant was launched in the second

half of 2013, while the diesel version is likely to be launched

in the first half of 2014

30,763

70,432 74,527 73,848

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

Sales

65 87 117

145 149 178

231 230

298

377

483

563

331

FY

02

FY

03

FY

04

FY

05

FY

06

FY

07

FY

08

FY

09

FY

10

FY

11

FY

12

FY

13

8M

FY

14

M&M auto sales – domestic and export

(‘000 units)


M&M has been the market leader in utility vehicles in India

for over 50 years since building the first Willys jeep in 1947

Manufactures passenger vehicles, utility vehicles, light

commercial vehicles (including three-wheelers)

Produces 15 passenger vehicle models and 8 commercial

vehicle models, noteworthy among which are Scorpio, Thar,

Xylo, XUV 500

Global player in exporting products to several countries in

North America, Europe, Africa, South America, South Asia,

and the Middle East; exported 32,457 units in FY13

Recorded four wheeler revenue of USD3.3 billion in FY13

Launched Verito Refresh, Quanto, and Rexton in FY2013

Launched the e20 electric car in March 2013 after acquiring

carmaker Reva Technology

In 2013, inked a partnership with online shopping portal

Snapdeal.com to sell its two-wheelers

CAGR: 22%

Note: M&M – Mahindra & Mahindra

• Strong support from the

government; setting up of

NATRiP centres

• Private players, such as

Hyundai, Suzuki, GM, keen

to set up R&D base in India

• Strong education base, large

skilled English-speaking

manpower

• Comparative advantage in

terms of cost

• The world’s cheapest car

(Tata Nano) has directed

focus on the low-income

market

• Bajaj Auto, Hero Honda and

M&M plan to jointly develop

a technology for two-

wheelers to run on natural

gas

• Electric cars likely to be a

sizeable market segment in

the coming decade

• Tata Motors to launch

MiniCAT, a car running on

compressed air, thereby

stepping into the next era

where cars would not require

any fossil fuel and emissions

would be almost nil

• General Motors, Nissan and

Toyota announced plans to

make India their global hub

for small cars

• Light vehicle sales estimated

to cross 3 million by the end

of 2012

• Strong export potential in

ultra low-cost cars segment

(to developing and emerging

markets)

India is fast emerging as a

global R&D hub

Opportunities for creating

sizeable market segments

through innovations

Small-car manufacturing hub

Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM)

Core 4-B, 5th Floor, India Habitat Centre

Lodhi Road, New Delhi – 110 003

India

Phone: 91 11 24647810–2

Fax: 91 11 24648222

E-mail: [email protected]

CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

CV: Commercial Vehicle

FDI: Foreign Direct Investment

FY: Indian Financial Year (April to March)

So FY10 implies April 2009 to March 2010

GOI: Government of India

HCV: Heavy Commercial Vehicle

INR: Indian Rupee

LCV: Light Commercial Vehicle

OEM: Original Equipment Manufacturers

PV: Passenger Vehicle

SIAM: Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers

ULCC: Ultra Low Cost Car

USD: US Dollar

Wherever applicable, numbers have been rounded off to the nearest whole number

Year INR equivalent of one USD

2004-05 44.95

2005-06 44.28

2006-07 45.28

2007-08 40.24

2008-09 45.91

2009-10 47.41

2010-11 45.57

2011-12 47.94

2012-13 54.31

Exchange rates (Fiscal year)

Year INR equivalent of one USD

2005 45.55

2006 44.34

2007 39.45

2008 49.21

2009 46.76

2010 45.32

2011 45.64

2012 54.69

2013 54.45

Exchange rates (Calendar year)

Average for the year

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Automobiles Sector Overview - 2014

Business

units source

fy13 fy21 passenger

units fy13

fy16e market size

market players removal

investments india

growing demand source

indian government