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Appeasement Disad-NFL Nats

Jun 02, 2018



  • 8/10/2019 Appeasement Disad-NFL Nats



    Appeasement Disadvantage 2.0


  • 8/10/2019 Appeasement Disad-NFL Nats




  • 8/10/2019 Appeasement Disad-NFL Nats




    < UQ >

    The plan appeases violent Latin American regimes spills over anddestabilizes every global hotspotFarah 12 [Doug. Senior Fellow at the Intl Assessment and Strategy Center. President of IBIConsultants. Transnational Organized Crime,Terrorism, and Criminalized States in Latin America: An Emerging Tier-One National Security Priority 2012, Strategic StudiesInstitute Publication.]Latin America , while not generally viewed as part of the stateless regions phenomenon, or part of the failed state discussion,presentsmultiple threats that center on criminalized states, their hybrid alliance with extra-regional sponsors of

    terrorism, and nonstate TOC actors. The groups within this hybrid threat often rivals, but willing to work in temporaryalliancesare part of the recombinant criminal/terrorist pipeline, and their violence is often aimed at gainingcontrol of specific territory or parts of that pipeline, either from state forces or other nonstate groups . In areasoutside effective government control, the state is either absent or ineffective , contributing to the governance problem through corruptionand negligence. Only Colombia has made significant progress in recouping internal space for the government, and that progress is fragile and in dangerof being reversed.126 While the basic model of the pipeline holds up well, the emerging situation can be likened to new branches of the pipeline being built in regions where it previously had no access. The combination of ungoverned spaces, criminalized states, and TOCgroups poses a growing, dangerous, and immediate threat to the security of the United States. The traffic in drugs,

    weapons, and humans from Latin American northward relies on the same basic pipeline structures to move. Thesame recombinant chains also move bulk cash, stolen cars, and weapons from the United States southward. Thisdemonstrates that these groups can successfully cross our border, and do, multiple times each day, in both directions. The pipelines are seldomdisrupted for more than a minimal amount of time, in part because the critical human nodes in the chain, and key chokepoints in the pipelines, are notidentified, and the relationships among the different actors and groups are not understood adequately. As noted, pipelines are adaptable and versatileas to productthe epitome of modern management systemsoften intersecting with formal commercial institutions (banks, commodity exchanges,legitimate companies, etc.), both in a physical and virtual/cyber manner, in ways difficult to determine, collect intelligence on, or disaggregate fromprotected commercial activities which may be both domestic and international in nature, with built-in legal and secrecy protections. Whilethesituation is already critical , it is likely to get worse quickly . There is growingevidence of Russian and Chinese

    organized crime penetration of the region,particularly in Mexico and Central America , greatlystrengthening thecriminal organizations and allowing them to diversify their portfolios and supply routesa particular example being precursor chemicals forthe manufacture of methamphetamines and cocaine. The Chinese efforts to acquire ports, resources, and intelligence-gathering capacity in the regiondemonstrate just how quickly the situation can develop, given that China was not a major player in the region 5 years ago. Iranian, Russian, andChinese banks operating in the region all offer new ways to move money into unregulated channels that benefit 65 both terrorist and criminalorganizations, along with corrupt officials. At the same time, there is strong evidence thatstates of the Bolivarian Axis , led by Venezuela andincluding Ecuador, Nicaragua, and Bolivia,not only tolerate increased criminalactivities in their territories, but also sponsor nonstate

    armed groups designated as terrorist entities by the United States, including the FARC in Colombia, and Hezbollah. These states appear to allowtheir stateless areas to be franchised out to these groups in order for the nonstate actors to both fund their activities and spread unrest throughout theregion. Of particular concern is the relationship of these Bolivarianstates , which support nonstate actors in the hemisphere, withIran , a state that has for many years funded, trained, and protected Hezbollah, one of the most effective and efficient nonstate (or quasi-state)terrorist actors in the world.The growing presence of Hezbollah in the Latin American drug trade both directly and through its proxies in West Africa and Southern Eurasiapresents a new and important threat to U.S. security . The only thing the Bolivarian nationsproclaiming 21st -century socialism an d the reactionary theocratic regime in Iran, have in common is a stated hatred for the United States and thedesire to inflict damage on the nation they view as the Evil Empire or the Great Satan. This is a new type of alliance of secular (self-proclaimedsocialist and Marxist) and radical Islamist organizations with a common goal directly aimed at challenging and undermining the security of the UnitedStates and its primary allies in the region (Colombia, Chile, Peru, Panama, and Guatemala).This represents a fundamental change

    because both 66 primary state allies in the alliance (the governments of Venezuela and Iran)host and support nonstateactors , allowing the nonstate actors to thrive in ways that would be impossible without state protection. Given this reality , it is imperative thatU.S. intelligence community, military, and law enforcement agencies develop a much deeper and more nuanced

    understanding of how the criminalized state/TOC/terrorist groups and foreign hostile state and nonstate foreign actors exploit the ungovernedor stateless spaces in areas of close proximity to U.S. bordersand the dangers they represent both in their current configuration, and their futureiterations. Understanding how these groups develop, and how they relate to each other and to groups from outside the region, is vitalparticularlygiven the rapid pace with which they are expanding their control across the continent, across the hemisphere, and beyond. Developing a predictivecapacity can be done based only on a more realistic understanding of the shifting networks of actors exploiting the pipelines; the nature and location ofthe geographic space in which they operate; the critical nodes where these groups are most vulnerable; and their behaviors in adapting to new politicaland economic developments, market opportunities and setbacks, internal competition, and the countering actions of governments. In turn, aneffective strategy for combating TOCmust rest on a solid foundation of regional intelligence which, while cognizant of the

    overarching transnational connections, remains sensitive to unique local realities behind seemingly ubiquitous behaviors. A one-size-fits-all

    policy will not suffice . It is not a problem that is only , or primarily, a matter of state or regional security, narcotics, money

    laundering, ter67 rorism, human smuggling, weakening governance, democracy reversal,trade and energy, counterfeiting and contraband,immigration and refugees, hostile states seeking advantage, or alterations in the military balance and alliances.It is increasingly acombination of all of these.It is a comprehensive threat that requires analysis and management withina comprehensive,

  • 8/10/2019 Appeasement Disad-NFL Nats



    integrated whole-of-government approach . At the same time, however expansive in global terms, a strategy based on geopoliticsthefundamental understanding of how human behavior relates to geographic spacemust always be rooted in the local.

    The signal of appeasement ignites a host of conflicts and collapseshegemonyCohen 3-19[Eliot. Director of Strategic Studies at Johns Hopkins. Eliot Cohen: American Withdrawal and Global Disorder The Wall StreetJournal, 3/19/13 ln] In Mr. Obama's second term the limits of such withdrawal from conventional militarycommitments abroad will be tested.In East Asia, an assertive China has bullied the Philippines (with which the U.S. has a 61-year-old defense pact)over the Spratly islands , and China has pressed its claims on Japan (a 53-year-old defense pact) over the Senkaku Islands. Atstake are territorial waters and mineral resources symbols of China's drive forhegemony and an outburst of nationalegotism. Yet when Shinzo Abe, the new prime minister of an understandably anxious Japan, traveled to Washington in February, hedidn't get the unambiguous White House backing of Japan's sovereignty that an ally of long standing deserves and needs. In Europe,an oil-rich Russia is rebuilding its conventional arsenal while modernizing (as have China and Pakistan) its nuclear arsenal.Russia has been menacing its East European neighbors , including those, like Poland, that have offered to host

    elements of a NATO missile-defense system to protect Europe. In 2012, Russia's then-chief of general staff, Gen. NikolaiMakarov, declared: "A decision to use destructive force pre-emptively will be taken if the situation worsens." This would be the sameRussia that has attempted to dismember its neighbor Georgia and now has a docile Russophile billionaire, Prime Minister Bidzin

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