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Antibody Testing for COVID-19 DavidCrowe
[email protected]
May13,2020
Itisnowtimeforadiscussionofantibodytesting.Manypeoplenowwanttoknowhowmanyhavebeensilentlyinfectedinthegeneralpopulation,howmanyareimmune,andhowthisaffectsthefatalityrate.Thisrequiresantibodytestingandthereisatleastasmuchinterestinthisnow,astherehasbeenintheCOVID-19RT-PCRRNAtestingthatisusedtodeclaresomeoneinfected.
Executive Summary
ApositiveRT-PCRtestisusedtotellpeoplethattheyhaveCOVID-19RNAandaredeemedinfectedandinfectious,despitethetechnology’snumerousflawsandknownfalsepositives.AntibodytestsarenowbeingusedundertheassumptionthatsomeonewhoispositiveforantibodiesforCOVID-19haspreviouslybeeninfectedand,iftheyhaverecoveredfromsymptoms,isnowimmune.Antibodiesareourbody’simmunesystemreactiontoviralproteins,knownasantigens.Antibodytestsincorporateantigens,andachemicalthatallowstheintensityofthereactiontobemeasuredusinglight.Ideallyantigenswouldcomefrompurevirus,butCOVID-19virushasneverbeenpurified,thusantigensarecreatedartificiallyfromproteinsbasedonportionsofthe30,000baseRNAgenomethatisbelievedtocomefromthevirus.ThemajorantibodytypesthatarelookedforareIgM,believedtobeagenericinfectionfightingantibodythatarisesaboutaweekorsoafterinfection,andIgG,believedtobemorespecific,andbelievedbysometotakelongerforthebodytocreate.Aftertheinfectionisresolved,IgMantibodiesarebelievedtograduallydisappear,whileIgGremain,providingongoingimmunity.Unfortunately,thisidealizedpictureisnotsupportedbytheavailableevidence,eitherbecausetheevidencedoesnotexist,isinsufficient,orbecauseitdirectlycontradictsthemodel.Positiveantibodytestsshouldbeimpossiblebeforethepersonisfirstinfected(RNApositive).Yet,oldbloodsamples(2019orbefore)havetestedpositiveinsignificantnumbers.Almost14%ofsavedbloodfromolddonationstestedpositiveinaDutchstudy,andinthevalidationoftheCellexandChembiotests,4.4%and3.6%ofoldsampleswerepositive.Theidealizedantibodymodelisbasedonthedateofinfectionasthestartingpoint,butthisdateisneverknownwithcertainty.EvenwhensomeonecameintocontactwithaCOVID-19RNApositivepersononacertaindatethatisnotaguaranteethatthiswasthedateofinfection,giventhat,priortothelockdown,peoplecouldapparentlybeinfectedwhileplayinginthepark,eatingatarestaurant,walking
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downthestreet,attendingaconcert,orparticipatinginanyothernowbannedactivity.Whenantibodysurveysareperformed,thevastmajorityofpeoplewhotestpositivehadnoideathattheyhadpreviouslybeeninfected,andcannotpossiblybesureaboutthedate.Thus,theincubationperiodforthevirusisimpossibletodetermineaccurately,aswellastherangeofdaysafterinfectionthatIgMandIgGstarttodevelop.Thismakesanaccurateantibodymodelimpossibletoconstructbasedoncurrentlyavailabledata,despitenumerousbeautifulgraphsshowingthismodelinidealizedform.
Simplemodelsthatillustratethetimingofantibodiesshowthequantity(titer)risingsmoothlyand,forIgM,eventuallypeakinganddecliningsmoothly.Yetmanystudieshavefoundnegativeteststhroughoutthesymptomaticperiod.AtestdevelopedbytheWadsworthCentreinNewYorkfound40%ofsamplesnegativeforantibodies11-15daysaftersymptomsstarted,andevenmorebetween16-20days.Thisindicatesthatantibodiesmaycomeandgorandomlyandnotbehaveinasmoothandpredictablefashion.Notestdocumentation,antibodysurveysorscientificstudiesshowedthedisappearanceofIgMantibodies,predictedbythemodel,perhapsbecauseitdoesnothappen,orittakesmorethan30days,themaximumexamined.Thismightnotbeterriblyimportantinpractice,butitisanotherindicationthatthebeautifulmodelsshownintheformofgraphsaresimplistic,ifnotoutrightwrong.OtherproblemswithantibodytestsincludeasignificantnumberofsamplestestingantibodypositivefrompeoplewhowereCOVID-19RNAnegative(althoughsomehad‘COVID-like’symptoms),withnoevidencethatthepersonwaseverinfected.InoneChinesestudythepositiverateonpresumablyneverinfectedpeoplewas25%.Antibodytests,likemostinfectiousdiseasetests,areoftenreportedas‘Positive’or‘Negative’,buttheresultsarereallywhethertheintensityofacolorchangeinthetestkitwasaboveorbelowanarbitrarynumber.Thereliabilityofthiswascalledintoquestion,inadvertently,byonetestmanufacturer,whoshowedthatcontinuallydilutingsamples50:50didnotresultinahalvingofthecolorchangeateachstep.Insomecases,lessmaterialresultedinsignificantlymoreintensecolorchanges.Researchershavetriedtoconnecttheantibodytiter(inreality,thisisjustthecolorchangeintensity)withtheseverityofsymptoms,buttwoChinesepapersthatstudiedthishadtoadmitthattherewasnodifferencebetweenmildlyandseverelysymptomaticpeopleinthequantityofantibodies,norbetweenthosewithorwithoutpre-existingconditions,norinthedurationofsymptoms.Testmanufacturersalwaysruntheirtestonbloodsamplesfrompeoplewithunrelatedmedicalconditionsasacheck.Eventhoughonlyasmallnumberofsampleswereexamined,forasmallnumberofconditions,differentmanufacturersfoundasignificantpercentageofsamplespositiveforCOVID-19antibodies,thatwereknownnottohaveCOVID-19,butinsteadcontainedotherviruses,bacteriaormycoplasma,orwerefrompeoplewithauto-immuneconditions,indicatingthattheantibodiesarenotspecific.Forexample,10%ofHepatitisBsampleswerepositive,
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33%ofRespiratorySynctitiaVirus,10%ofauto-antibodiesand17%ofStreptococcus.AlargenumberofpopulationsurveyshavebeencompiledbyDeanBeelerandtheyrevealawiderangeofpercentagesofpopulationsantibodypositive,fromlessthan1%inmanycasesto32%inapoorpartofBoston.Thisisgenerallyseenasanindicationofhowfarthroughthepopulationthatthevirushasrampaged.Oneflawofmostofthesesurveysisthatthepopulationischosennon-randomly,anddoesnotrepresentthegeneralpopulation.Thegroupmaybeahouseholdsurvey,volunteers,highschoolstudentsandstaff,healthcareworkers,blooddonors,orpeoplegoingforbloodtestsatalab.Butafarbiggerproblemisthatthenumberproducedisimpossibletovalidate.When1.5%ofSantaClaravolunteerstestedpositive,itwasassumedthatthatwastruth.This‘truth’assertsthatallofthesepeoplewereRNA-positiveatsomepointintherecentpast.Butthereisabsolutelynoevidenceforthis.The‘truth’assumesthatallthepeoplewerenegativeforCOVID-19antibodiespriortotheassumedperiodofRNA-positivity.Butthereisabsolutelynoevidenceforthis.
Itassumesthatthe98.5%whotestednegativewereneverRNA-positive.Butthereisabsolutelynoevidenceforthis.Itassumesthatthe98.5%neverhadtheantibodiesbeinglookedforbefore.Butthereisabsolutelynoevidenceforthis.IcouldassertthattherealfractionpositiveinSantaClarawas98.5%,not1.5%,andthereisnolessevidenceformyassertionthanfortheresultsfromantibodytesting.
Thesesurveysoftenaskifpeoplewhotestedantibodypositivehad‘COVID-like’symptomsinthelastfewweeksormonths(andmostsaythattheydidnot).Butthesesymptoms(fever,cough,lossofsmellortaste,fatigue)aresogenericthattheyareabsolutelynotevidencethatthepeoplewerepreviouslyCOVID-19RNApositive.OnesolutionwouldbeatimeseriessurveyofalargenumberofpeoplecurrentlynegativeonbothRNAandantibodytests(uninfectedandneverinfected).Everyfewdaysthesepeoplewouldgiveadropofbloodandanasalswab.SomewouldbecomeRNApositive,andthencouldbeexaminedmorefrequentlyfortheexactpatternofantibodydevelopment,throughtothedisappearanceofIgMantibodies.Thisexperimentwouldbetimeconsuming,intrusive,inefficient(asmostpeoplemayneverbecomeinfected)andexpensive.ButconsideringthevastsumsofmoneyspentonCOVID-19research,quarantiningandtreatment,andtheevenmoretremendoussumsofmoneylostbyahobbledeconomy,andtheassertionofourpoliticiansthattheyfollowthescience(nottheheadlemming),thiswouldsurelybeworthwhile.Antibodytestsmightbefatallyflawed,buttheycanbeusedinhighlydestructiveways.Ifthenumberofpeoplewhoareantibodypositiveremainsbelowthelevelof‘herdimmunity’(90%orso)itwillbeanexcusetopromoteorevenmandatevaccination,afteravaccineisrushedontothemarket.Antibodytestscouldalsobeusedtoindefinitelyquarantinepeoplewhodonottestpositive,assertingthattheyareatdangerofbecominginfected,andthenspreadingittoothers.Theycouldbe
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usedtoseparatefamilies,arguingthatthechildrenmustbeputinfosterhomesbecausetheparentsareatriskofaninfectionatanytime.FaultytestshavebeenusedtoindefinitelyquarantineChinesecitizens.Butnow,dowehavemorecivilrightsintheUK,UnitedStates,Canadaorothermodern,oncedemocraticcountries?
Wehavebeenherebefore.ABBCstoryfrom2008,“LifeSentence”,alwaysmakesmecry.Startingin1907nearly50womenwerelockedinanasylumwithintheLongGroveinsaneasyluminSurreybecausetheyweredeemedcarriersoftyphoid.Theyweresaneandhealthywhentheyentered,butmostweredrivenmadbythesolitaryconfinement,byhumiliationsliketoiletsthatflushedboilingwater,warmlyremindingthemthateventheirexcrementwasadangertotheworld,bythenurseswearingPPE.Aftertheystoppedimprisoningsuchwomeninthe1950s,theprisonersremained.In1992,whentheasylumclosedforgood,thethreeremainingwomenweredeemedinsaneandrelocatedtootherinstitutions,theirentirelivesdestroyedbyaninfectiouspanic.Despitethis,theUKDepartmentofHealthtoldtheBBCthatthereneverhadbeenapolicyofincarceratingpeopledeemedcarriersofaninfectiousdisease[32].ThisdocumentisbasedonanexaminationofallantibodytestdocumentationsubmittedtotheUSFDA(FoodandDrugAdministration)andaseriesofantibodysurveysofgroupsofpeoplefromaroundtheworld.
A Little Background
COVID-19isallegedtobeanRNAvirus,sotheRNAwillbeinyourbodyassoonasyouareinfected.RT-PCRisanultra-sensitivetest(capableofreliablydetectingasfewasfivemoleculesofRNAinasample,andpossiblytriggeringonjustone)andthereforeshouldbepositivealmostimmediatelyafterinfection.1IgMantibodiesarebelievedtobeproducedbythebodyasgenericinfectionfighters,soonafterinfection.AninfectedpersonwillnotbeIgMpositiveimmediately,butwithinafewdaysatmost.Theseantibodiespersistforawhileaftertheinfectionisresolved,butthenfadeaway.
IgGantibodiesarebelievedtobeproducedbythebodyasveryspecificfightersofaparticularinvader,suchasCOVID-19.SomescientistsbelievertheytakelongerthanIgMtobeproduced,butallagreethattheypersistlongaftertheinfectionisresolved,possiblyforalifetime.
Antibodies and Antigens
Antibodiesarebelievedtobegeneratedbytheimmunesysteminresponsetoaforeignprotein,knownasanantigen.InthecaseofCOVID-19,anantigenwouldbeaproteinprobablyfoundontheoutershellofthevirus(becausetheinternalproteins
1Oftenonlysamplesfromsomeareasofthebodyarepositive(e.g.nosebutnotthroatorstool),leadingtothebeliefthatthevirus,unlikebloodborneviruses,onlycolonizesasmallpartoftherespiratorytract.Samplesfromdeepinthenose(nasopharyngeal)arebelievedtobemostreliableforearlydetection[27].
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areunlikelytostimulateanimmunereaction).Whenanantibodybindstoanantigen,itisasignaltothebodytodestroytheforeignobject,suchasavirusparticle.Antibodytestscontainoneofmoreoftheseantigens,thatareboundtochemicalsthatproducesomekindofcolorchangeorfluorescencewhenanantibodybindstothem.Theresultoftheantibodytestisreadastheintensityofthiscolorchangeorfluorescence.Thismakesreadingtestsresultseasiertoautomate.Theantibody-antigenreactioniscontinuous,andnotbinary,notnaturally‘negative’or‘positive’.Therefore,manufacturersrecommendaparticularintensityofcolorchangeorfluorescenceasthedivisionbetween‘negative’(antibodiesnotpresent)and‘positive’(antibodiespresent).Somemanufacturersrecommendanintermediatezonebetweennegativeandpositive,andspecimensinthiszonemaybere-tested,possiblyimmediately,orpossiblyinthefuture,whenitisbelievedthat,ifthereactionisreal,antibodylevelswillhaveincreasedtoaclearlydetectablelevel.Sinceantigensareviralproteinstheobviousplacetoobtainthemwouldbefrompurifiedvirus.However,sinceCOVID-19virushasneverbeenpurified,thisiscurrentlyimpossible.Inlieuofthis,traditional,impurematerials(e.g.nasalswab)wouldbeaddedtoacellculture,andproteinsthatwerebelievedtobeviralwouldbepurifiedandusedasantigens.Butinmoderntestsmostantigenproteinsare‘recombinant’,producedartificiallyfromthepublished30,000baseRNAsequencebelievedtobeCOVID-19.
Sources of Data
ThisarticleisbasedonareviewofallantibodytestsapprovedunderFDAEmergencyUseAuthorization[33],alistofsurveysmaintainedbyathirdparty[23]andseveralmedicalpapers.
Status of Antibody Tests
TheonlyjurisdictionwithaformalstructureforapprovalofantibodytestsistheUnitedStatesbut,untilveryrecently,itwasjustacharade,asthetestmanufacturersdidnotneedtoprovidevalidationdata.Now,validationdatamustbeprovided,buttheFDAcanonlydoapaperanalysis[3].Imagineifauto-manufacturershadtobuildcarstocertainEPA(USEnvironmentalProtectionAgency)fuelefficiencystandards,butratherthansendingacartotheEPAfortesting,theycoulddothetestingattheirfacilities,andjustsendtheresultsinafterwards.Then,therewouldhavebeennoneedtowritesoftwaretofakethefuelefficiencybyrunningtheenginedifferentlyundertestingconditions.
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A Theoretical Timeline
ThetheoreticaltimelineofanRNAvirusdiseaseisshownbelow:
Phase Description Exception
Pre-infection NoRNA,IgMorIgG Peoplewillhaveantibodiestopreviousinfectionsthatmaycross-reactwithCOVID-19antibodies.
Infection RNAshouldbedetectablebyRT-PCRalmostimmediately.
Incubation DuringthisperiodofafewdaysIgMantibodiesshouldbecomedetectable[1][2].IgGmaybecomedetectable.ItisbelievedthatIgGantibodiesdevelopatthesametimeorafterIgM,butnotbefore.
Symptomaticresolution
Ifapersondevelopssymptoms,theyshouldhavedetectableRNA,IgMandIgGduringthisperiod
AsymptomaticResolution
DespitethelackofsymptomsinmanyormostCOVID-19RNApositivepeople,peopleinthisphaseshouldsimilarlybepositiveforRNA,IgMandIgG.
Cure ThereisnofunctionalvirusleftinthebodysothepersonshouldbeRNAnegative.IgMandIgGwillbepositive.
RT-PCRtestsmayproducefalsepositivesresultsduetonon-infectiousRNAleftoverfromtheinfectionorotherreasons.
Post-infection AtsomepointIgMantibodieswaneandthepersonisleftwithjustIgGantibodies,whichprovideimmunity,possiblylife-long.
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AgraphfromthetestmanufacturerDiazymeillustratesthisbelief,whichindicatesthattheimmunesystemisawareoftheconceptofa7-dayweek(othersimilargraphsindicatethat,forotherviruses,multiplesof10daysarepreferred)[26].
ApaperfromtheJournaloftheAmericanMedicalAssociationdiffersinshowingIgMandIgGantibodiesarisingatthesametime[27]:
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ThispaperwillshowthatCOVID-19antibodytestingdoesnotsupportthistimeline.
Timeline in Practice
Pre-Infection: No Positive Test Results
BeforepeopleareinfectedwithCOVID-19theyshouldtheoreticallybenegativeforRNAandalltypesofantibodies.Inthefollowingtable,notethattestsforonlyoneantibodytypewillperformbetterastheyonlyhaveonechanceforafalsepositive,whereastestsformultipleantibodytypescouldtestpositiveforanytype.Thelowestvalueisshadedinblue,andthehighestinred.
Test or Study Antibodies Pre-outbreak samples positive2 (%)
Abbotttest[6] IgG 4/997(0.4%)
Cellextest[4] IgGorIgM 11/250(4.4%)
Chembiotest[5] IgGorIgM 5/125(3.6%)
DiaSorintest[9] IgG 8/1090(0.7%)
EuroImmuntest[10] IgG 30/1415(2.1%)
Idahosurvey[21] IgG 1/1020(0.1%)
Netherlandssurvey[24] IgA,IgG,IgM 30/218(13.8%)
Netherlandssurvey[24] IgM 3/28(10.7%)
Plateliaserum[8] Combined 3/687(0.4%)
Rochetest[13] Ngene 10/5272(0.2%)
Wadsworthtest[11] IgA,IgG,IgM 1/256(0.4%)
Infection: RNA-Positive Only
Theoretically,someonewhohasjustbeeninfectedwithCOVID-19willberapidlypositiveforRNA(duetothesensitivityofthetest)butitwilltakeafewdaysforantibodiestodevelop.Thereisnodataavailableatpresent,asitwouldrequiredailybloodsamplesfromalargenumberofpeoplewhowereinitiallynegativeforalltests,sothatthetimeseriescouldbeexamined.Thistypeoftestingcouldvalidateallaspectsofthetheoreticaltimeline,butwouldalsobeveryexpensive,intrusive(dailyswabsandbloodtests)andwouldneedaverylargenumberofpeople
2Sometestshada‘borderline’or‘indeterminate’categoryandthesewerecountedaspositive.
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becausemostmayneverhaveanypositivetestsand,aheadoftime,itwouldbeimpossibletotellwhowouldeventuallybecomeRNA-positive.ThebestthatcanbedoneistoguessatthedateofinfectionbasedoncontactwithsomeonewholatertestedRNApositive,butthereisneverproofthatthiswasactuallythedateofinfection,itisstilljustasupposition.
ThetimeatwhichsomeonefirstdevelopssymptomsorlearnstheyareRNA-positiveisnotveryusefulbecauseitmayoccuravariablenumberofdaysaftertheyareinfected.
Incubation: Antibodies Start to Develop
Thispartofthetheoreticaltimelinehasthesameproblemasthemomentofinfectionandwouldalsorequiretimeserieswithdailytestingofalargenumberofpeople.ButperhapswecansometimesbeluckyandsomeonewillbetestedearlyenoughthattheywillbeRNApositiveandthedevelopmentoffirstIgMandthenIgGantibodies.IntheChembiotestvalidationIgGantibodieswerefoundinallfourRNApositivesamplescollectedwithin6daysofthedevelopmentofsymptoms,butIgMantibodiesonlyinoneoutoffour[5].ItshouldhavebeentheotherwayroundifIgMoccursbeforeIgG.Astudyof30severelyandmildlyillCOVID-19patientsfoundthat,“ahigherproportionofpatients…hadearlierIgGthanIgMseroconversion[firstdetectionofantibodies]”[28].Sometestsandstudiesmadeitimpossibletovalidatethistheorybecausetheyusedtotalantibodies,notdistinguishingbetweenIgMandIgG(Platelia[8]).ManyothertestsonlyreactedtoIgGantibodies,socomparisonwithIgMwasnotpossible.ThereislimitedinformationbutitdoesnotsupportthenotionheldbysomethatIgMantibodiesdevelopbeforeIgG.ThisisconsistentwiththefirstSARScoronavirusinwhichIgGantibodieswerefoundbeforeIgMantibodies,callingintoquestiontheusefulnessofIgMantibodiesasanearlywarningsystem[25].And,giventhatIgMantibodiesdisappearovertime,theyarenotusefulfordetermininglaterimmunityeither.
Symptomatic Resolution: RNA and Antibodies
Oncesymptomsarenoticed,enoughtimeshouldhavepassedforIgMantibodiestodevelop,soduringthedaysorweeksofresolutionofsymptomseverypatientshouldbepositiveforRNA,IgMandIgG.DuringSARS,alsoblamedonacoronavirus,asmallsampleofisolatedpatientsmostlydevelopedIgGantibodiesby14daysaftersymptoms,andallby30days[25].
TheChembiotestfoundIgGantibodiesin100%ofRNA-positivesamplesfrom0-21daysafterfirstsymptoms,exceptfor4/10(40%)ofsamplescollectedbetween7-10
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days.TheEuroImmuntesthadpositiveIgGresultssporadicallyfromthefirstdayofsymptomsthroughday15,andthenconsistentlythroughday36,thelastdaytested,whilenegativetestswerefoundfromthedayofsymptomsthroughday18.Therewereverysmallnumbersoftestsperformedoneachday(1-6)withanaverageoflessthantwotestsperpatient[10].
TheAbbottIgGtesthad0positiveresultswithin3daysoffirstsymptoms,25%positivewithin3-7days,86%within8-13daysand100%after14days[6].Similarly,Diasorinfound11/44(25%)positiveforIgGwithin5daysoffirstsymptoms,44/49(90%)between6and14days,and40/41(98)after15days[9].TheOrthoVitriostestfound8%IgGnegativetothe‘N’genewithin5daysofthepersontestingRNApositive,butthefractionthenwentup,11%ontests6-15daysafterRNApositivity,and25%duringthe16-22dayperiod[12].Theyalsotestedpeopleaknownnumberofdaysaftersymptom,andagainasignificantfractionwerenegative:8%12-17daysaftersymptomsandmore,17%,18-32daysaftersymptoms.TheWadsworthtest[11]simultaneouslydetectsIgA,IgGandIgMantibodies,socannotbeusedtodistinguishthetimingofdifferentantibodies.However,itsurprisinglyhadnegativeresultson40%ofsamplesfrompeoplewhowereknowntohavebeenRNApositivefor11-15days,43%positivefor16-20days,and12%positiveformorethan20days.Ifindeterminateresultsareincludedwithnegative(sincetheyarenotclearlypositive)thepercentagesare69%(11-15days),51%(16-20days)and21%(over20days).TwoadditionalstudieswiththeWadsworthtestshowedthat,atleast25daysaftersymptomoffset,6%wereantibodynegative,and12%wereeitherantibodynegativeorindeterminate.Inotherwords,negativeresultsforIgA,IgGandIgMwerefoundlongaftersomeantibodiesshouldhavedeveloped.
Differenttestsgiveverydifferentresults,fromChembio,positiveforIgGonalldaysaftersymptomsdeveloped,toAbbottwhichhadonly25%positivewithin3daysofsymptomsdeveloping.Thisindicatesthatthetestsarenotallmeasuringthesamething,ornotwiththesamelevelofsensitivity.Additionally,therelevanttimingisfromthedateofinfection,notsymptoms,andthatisunknowninalmosteverycase.Asurveyof85COVID-19patientsinWuhan,ChinafoundthatthemajorityofsampleshaddetectableIgMantibodiesfromthefirstdaymeasuredto30daysorbeyond,buttherewasnotimewhereallteststakenwerepositive(themaximumwas94%onday19aftersymptoms).IgGsamplestakenonday30orlaterwere100%positive,butonly14outof85patientsweretestedduringthisperiod.Priorto30daysallgroupsofsampleshadatleast9%negative,andsomeasmuchas60%.Alargeflawinallthevalidationsisthatthepeoplesampledatdifferenttimesarenotthesame,soindividualanomalies(suchasthedisappearanceofIgGantibodies,andthenreappearance)cannotbeseen.Again,atimeseriescouldprovideinformationthatshowsthatthedevelopmentofantibodiesfollowsapredictablepatterninindividuals.
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TheonlythingapproachingatimelineisfoundintheAbbotttestdocumentationwhichshowstwopeoplewhohadtwonegativeIgGtestsfollowedbyseveralpositivetests.Thetwopeople,however,seroconvertedatratherdifferenttimes.Onebetweendays6and7aftersymptomsandtheotherbetween10and11[6].Asusual,theamountoftimefrominfectiontothedevelopmentofantibodieswasunknown.SincetheAbbotttestisIgGonly,therewasnoinformationonIgM.Insummary,formuchofthetestdocumentation,therewereamixtureofpositiveandnegativeIgGandIgMtestresultsovermuchofthetimetested,andforsometests,rightuptotheendoftheperiod.Thiscouldbeduetolargevariationsinthedevelopmentofantibodiesineachperson,falseresultsfromcertaintestkits,orboth.
Asymptomatic Resolution: RNA and Antibody Positive
FromatestingperspectivetheasymptomaticresolutionofaninfectionshouldalsobeatimewhenpeoplearepositiveforRNA,IgMandIgG.Theproblemisthatthepersonaffectedisnotsick,andmuchlesslikelytobetested.Again,atimeseriesofmanypeoplecouldidentifyasymptomaticinfections,andcouldtestthehypothesisthatthesepeoplewouldfirstbecomeRNApositive,thenIgMpositive,thenIgGpositivebeforetheresolutionoftheinfection.TheinformationthatisavailableontheappearanceofantibodiesinasymptomaticpeoplewhoareRNA-positiveisabsentthedateofinfection,whichistheonlydatethatmatters.Therefore,thereisnousefulinformationonthistheoreticalphase.
Post-Infection: Disappearance of IgM Antibodies
IgMantibodiesshoulddisappearafterapersonhaseliminatedthevirus(becomingRNAnegative).
TheChembiotestvalidationobtainedsamplesfrom2peopleat21daysaftersymptoms,andbothwereIgMpositive[5].Similarly,asurveyof85patientsinWuhan,China,followedpatientsforover30daysanddidnotdocumentthedisappearanceofIgM[29].Additionally,thedisappearanceofIgMantibodiesimpliesthattheyappearedinthefirstcase,buteveninpeoplewhoareRNApositivewithsymptoms,therearestillsometimesnegativeIgMtests.ThisisoftenmaskedbyconsideringsomeonewhoisIgMORIgGpositive,tobeantibodypositive.ThedocumentationavailabledoesnotexcludethepossibilitythatsomepeoplenevergeneratedIgMantibodies.ThedataprovidedinthisarticledoesnotsupportthenotionthatIgMantibodieseventuallydisappear,butitmayjustbebecausethepatientswerenotfollowedlongenough.
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Performance Issues
Positive Results on Coronavirus Negative People
COVID-19antibodytestsshouldonlyveryrarelybepositiveonpeoplewhotestedRNAnegative(whowerelikelytestedmultipletimes,usingsamplesfromdifferentareasofthebody),eveniftheywerehospitalizedforsymptomsthatmighthaveseemed‘COVID-like’butactuallytestedRNAnegative.ThereisalwaysthepossibilitythatsomeofthesepeoplepreviouslyhadaCOVID-19infection,probablyasymptomatic(otherwisetheywouldlikelyhavebeentested),butinnoneofthesecaseswasthereanyevidenceforthis.
Test or Study Antibodies RNA negative, antibody positive (%)
Autobiotest[7] IgGorIgM 3/312(1.0%)
Chembiotest[5] IgGorIgM 4/41(10.3%)
Wadsworth[11] IgA,IgG,IgM 1/30(3%)
Wu[22].Hospitalpatients. IgG 39/380(10.3%)
Wu[22].Returningworkers. IgG 98/1021(9.6%)
Xiangetal[29] IgG 20/84(24%)
Xiangetal[29] IgM 21/84(25%)
Antibody Measurement Performance
Antibodiesaregenerallymeasuredbyacolorchangewhichcanbemonitoredbyreflectance,fluorescenceoropticaldensity.Thecolorchangeshoulddeepen,orthefluorescentglowshouldincrease,withthequantityofvirusinapredictable(preferablylinear)fashion.Inotherwords,ifthebloodisdiluted50%thenthereflectance,fluorescenceoropticaldensityshoulddropbyhalf.
IntheChembiovalidation,whenbloodsampleswerecontinuouslydilutedbyhalf,theydidnotfollowapatternofopticalreflectancethatwasrelatedtotheamountofdilution.Withonesample,afterreflectancedroppedfrom36to16onthefirstdilution(closetohalf,asexpected)thereflectancestayedbetween11and16untilthefifthdilutionwhereitroseto24,whichwasalmostconsideredapositiveresult(25wasthecutoff).Onthesecondsample,theIgMreflectancealmostdoubledonthefirstdilution(asopposedtodropping).Thiswastheonlytestvalidationthatincludedasimilarexperiment,sothereisnoevidencethatantibodytestingresultscanbeusedtoestimatethequantityofvirus.Italsocallsintoquestionthemeaningfulnessofanumericcutoffinthefirstplace,todistinguishpositivefromnegative(andpossiblyborderlineorindeterminate).
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Disease Severity Predictive Value
Theamountofantibody,measuredbysurrogateslikereflectanceoropticaldensity,isoftenmeasured,withtheimplicationthatthelevelofantibodiesreflectstheseverityofthedisease.OnesurveyofCOVID-19patientsexaminedtwotypesofIgMandIgGlevels(anti-NP[internalnucleoprotein]andanti-RBD[surfacespikeproteinreceptorbindingdomain])foragroupof7severelyillpatientsandagroupofmildcaseandconcludedthat,“Serumantibodylevelswerenotcorrelatedwithdiseaseseverity”[28].Therewassimilarlynoobviouspatterninthesamestudywithpatientswithorwithoutco-morbidities.
ApaperfromShanghaistudiedantibodytiters(levels)in175recoveringCOVID-19patients,andfoundaweakcorrelationwithage,butnocorrelationwithpeoplewhoneverdevelopedhighlevelsofantibodiesandthedurationofdisease[31].
Cross Reactions
Antibodytestsareoftensubjecttocross-reactionswithotherconditions.Thiscouldbebecausethemedicalconditionproducessimilarantibodies,orbecausesomethingrelatedtothatconditionreactswithothertestcomponents.
Condition Test or Study Antibodies Positive (%)
ANA(anti-nuclearantibodies)
Euroimmun[10] IgG 1/29(3.4%)
Auto-antibodies Euroimmun[10] IgG 1/10(10%)
Chikungunyavirus Wadsworth[11] IgA,IgG,IgM 2/5(40%)
Chlamydophila EuroImmun[10] IgG 1/15(7%)
Coronavirus229E Chembio[5] IgG 1/1(100%)
Cytomegalovirus(CMV) Abbott[6] IgG 1/5(20%)
HepatitisBpositive Diasorin[9] IgG 1/10(10%)
HIV Wadsworth[11] IgA,IgG,IgM 1/5(20%)
InfluenzaApositive Diasorin[9] IgG 1/10(10%)
Mycoplasma EuroImmun[10] IgG 1/15(7%)
RespiratorySynctitiaVirus(RSV)
EuroImmun[10] IgG 1/3(33%)
Rheumatoidfactor Diasorin[9] IgG 1/10(10%)
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Streptococcus EuroImmun[10] IgG 2/12(17%)
WestNilevirus Wadsworth[11] IgA,IgG,IgM 1/5(20%)
Thechoiceofconditionstocheckforiscompletelyunderthecontrolofthemanufacturerandevenwhennocrossreactionswerefoundforacondition,thenumberofsamplestestedwassosmallthatthepossibilityofafairlyhighrateoffalsepositivecrossreactionsstillexists.Forexample,asampleof10cannotshowthatevena10%falsepositiverateisunlikely.
General Criticisms of Tests
Evenwheretestvalidationdataconformstotheexpectationaboutthebehaviorofantibodies,therearecriticismsthatcanbemade:
• Manufacturersareresponsibleforprovidingthedata,andtheyknowthereisnopointinsubmittingdatawithmajorredflags,meaningthattheycanspendtimeadjustingthesamplestheyareusing,andhowtheyareanalyzedtoensurethatthesubmittedreportmakestheirtestlooksgood.
• Thereisnowaytovalidatethemanufacturervalidationdata.• Thereisnoconsistentsetofvalidationteststhatneedtobeperformedbyall
manufacturers.• TimeseriesfromthetimeofinfectionthroughatleastthedeclineofIgM
antibodiesarenotprovidedinanycase.• Wheninformationisprovidedovertime,itisnotforthesamepeople.• Timingofantibodyresultsisfromthedayoffirstsymptoms,orthedayof
testingRNA-positive,notfromtheearlierdateofinfection.• Inmanyvalidationtestsonlytinynumbersofsamplesaretested.Sometimes
across-reactionwassearchedforbytestingonlyonesample.Yet,witheven1%crossreactionsbeingimportant,wellover100sampleswouldbeneeded.
• Onlyalimitednumberofconditionsweresearchedforcross-reactions.• Sincethetestswerevalidatedbythemanufacturersinidealenvironments,it
canbepredictedthatperformancewillbelowerwhenusedinpracticebypurchasersofthetests.
Theseflawsinantibodytestsarefatal.Atpresentnoantibodytestsareproperlyvalidated,andtheresultscannotbereliedupon,particularlynottomakesweepingchangesinsociety,suchasmandatoryvaccinationandquarantineofpeoplewhodonothavethe‘right’antibodytestresults.
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Population Surveys
Severalsurveysoflocalpopulationsforantibodieshavebeenundertaken.InmanycasesthisistoestimatethepenetrationofCOVID-19intothegeneralpopulation,whohavemostlybeenasymptomatic,orexperiencedonlyminorsymptoms.
Population being Surveyed
Itisveryhardtocomparethesesurveysbecausetheyusecompletelydifferentsamplesofpeople.Somearerandomhouseholdsurveys,althoughrandomizationmaybereducedbyallowingmultiplehouseholdresidentstoparticipate.Othersaresurveysofblooddonors,peoplewhohavegivenbloodatalabforreasonsunrelatedtoCOVID-19,volunteersrecruitedbyfacebookads,oratatestingcenterinapublicplace.Nosurveycanbetakenasrepresentativeofthegeneralpopulation.
Validating the Fraction Positive
Theresultofapopulationsurveythateveryoneisinterestedinisthepercentagepositive.Thisisgenerallymuchhigherthanexpectedbythosewhofocusonthenumberofknowncases,bydramaticallyexpandingthenumberoflikelycases.ThesesurveysleadtotheconclusionthatthedeathratefromCOVID-19isgreatlyexaggerated(especiallyintwoCaliforniasurveys)andthatherdimmunitymayoccurnaturally.Butthereisnoevidencethatthefractionsofthepopulationthatareantibodypositivearemeaningful,forseveralreasons:
• ThepresenceofantibodiesistakentomeanthatthepersonwaspreviouslyRNApositivewithnosymptoms,orminorsymptoms.Noneofthesurveyshaveproofthatallthepeople,orevenamajority,werepreviouslyRNA-positive(andpresumedinfected),andthetimehasobviouslypassedtoobtainthisinformation.
• ThepeoplewereassumedtobeantibodynegativepriortobecomingRNApositive.Noneofthesurveyshaveevidenceforthis.
• TheabsenceofantibodiesistakentomeanthatthepersonwasneverCOVID-19RNApositive.Noneofthesurveyshaveevidenceforthis.
• Itisassumedthatthetestsusedwouldallgiveapproximatelythesameresult.Sincetherehasbeennocross-validationoftests,thisisanunfoundedassumption.
Viruspurificationcannotbeusedtovalidateantibodytestswhenthevirusisbelievedtohavebeendefeatedandisnolongerinthebody.OnlyatimeseriescouldidentifypeoplewhobecomeRNA-positive,andthenmonitortheirantibodydevelopmentovertime.
Summary of Fraction Positive
ThissectioncontainsinformationfromantibodysurveysinatablemaintainedbyDeanBealer[23].Itshowsthegroupbeingsurveyed(cohort),thetypeofantibodies
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lookedfor(notalwaysprovided),thepercentagewhowereantibodypositiveand,insomecases,thepercentagewhowereasymptomaticintheweeksbeforethetest.Acronymsusedinthetable:HCW=HealthCareWorkers;HS=HighSchool;n/s=Notspecified;THL=in-houseantibodytest.
Region Cohort Antibodies Positive% Asymptomatic
Boston (Chelsea)
RNA negative volunteers n/s 32.0% 50.0%
Czech Selected or random n/s 0.4%
Denmark Blood donors 17-69 IgM 0.7%
Denmark Blood donors 17-69 IgG 0.7%
Denmark Blood donors 17-69 IgM+IgG 0.4%
Geneva Representative sample IgG 5.5%
Germany 405 households from random sample of 600
n/s 15.0%
Helsinki Gave blood sample at lab. Week 13
Rapid+THL 0.7%
Helsinki Gave blood sample at lab. Week 14
Rapid+THL 0.0%
Helsinki Gave blood sample at lab. Week 15
Rapid+THL 2.7%
Idaho General IgG 1.8%
Iran 196 households IgM or IgG 22.2% 55.6%
Kobe Outpatient blood tests IgG 3.3%
Los Angeles Representative sample n/s 4.1%
Madrid HCW IgA, IgG, IgM 9.3%
Miami-Dade Random county residents n/s 6.0% 50.0%
Moscow First week of survey n/s 3.0%
Moscow Second week of survey n/s 9-10%
Netherlands RNA negative blood plasma donors
IgA, IgG, IgM 3.1%
New York Recruits at grocery stores and community centers
n/s 12.3%
Oise, France HS pupils, staff IgG, anti-N gene 25.9% 17.0%
Oise, France Blood donors IgG, anti-N gene 3.0%
Santa Clara Facebook ads targeted at Santa Clara County
IgG or IgM 1.5%
Scotland Blood donors, March 17 n/s 0.0%
Scotland Blood donors, March 21-23 n/s 1.2%
Slovenia General n/s 3.0% 95.1%
Stockholm General n/s 2.3%
Sweden HCW n/s 20.0%
Switzerland Population representative survey, week 1
IgG 3.2%
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Switzerland Population representative survey, week 2
IgG 5.3%
Switzerland Population representative survey, week 3
IgG 8.7%
Switzerland Population representative survey, 5-19 years old
IgG 6.1%
Switzerland Population representative survey, 20-49
IgG 8.4%
Switzerland Population representative survey, 50+
IgG 4.3%
Switzerland Population representative survey, Female
IgG 3.2%
Switzerland Population representative survey, Male
IgG 5.3%
Wuhan RNA-negative returning workers IgG 9.6%
Wuhan RNA-negative returning workers IgM 0.0%
Wuhan RNA-negative hospitalized patients
IgG 10.3%
Wuhan RNA-negative returning workers IgM 0.0%
Atpresentthisinformationissimplyprovidedasaconvenientsummary.Drawingconclusionsfromitisdifficult,excepttosaythatiftheantibodytestscanbebelieved,innoareahavethemajorityofpeoplebeeninfected.Ontheotherhand,theresultsmaynotevenbeclosetothenumberofpeoplewhoactuallydidexperienceaninfectionasthereisnowaytovalidateanantibodytestinthegeneralpopulation,withouthistoricalrecordsofcoronavirus‘infection’status(i.e.atimeseriesdocumentingRT-PCRRNApositivityandthesubsequentdevelopmentofantibodies).Wherethefractionofpeoplewhohadbeenasymptomaticintheweeksbeforetheantibodytest(notonthedateofthetest,astheinfectionhaspresumablybeenresolvedsometimeago),amongagroupofantibodypositivepeople,wasreported,thenumberswerealloverhalf,exceptforthestudyinOise,France,inwhichparticipantswereaskedtoreportanyrespiratorysymptomsoverthelastthreemonths,whichweremostlyrunnynose,cough,headache,tiredness,sorethroatandfever.Abouthalfwerelistedashaving“major”symptoms(sohalfwereasymptomaticorhadminorsymptoms),but‘major’symptomsincludedfever,coughandlossofsensationsofsmellortaste.Thebottomlineisthatifwedefinemajorsymptomsbytheneedforhospitalization,95%didnothavemajorsymptoms.
Antibodies and Air Pollution
AnantibodysurveyofNewYorkprovideddataforvariousregionsofthestate.ThereisanobviouslyhigherrateofantibodypositivepeopleintheNewYorkCityarea,andadramaticallylowerrateinruralareas.Thiscouldbeexplained(andwillbe)bygreatertransmissioninthecity,butalsocouldbeduetogreaterairpollutioninthecity.Therearealreadystudiesthatshow,forexample,anassociationbetweenairpollutionandthefrequencyofRNApositivetests,andbetweenairpollutionanddeathsblamedonCOVID-19.
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Onestudyestimates,“Anincreaseof1microgrampercubicmeteroffineparticulatesintheairisassociatedwithan8%increaseintheCOVID-19deathrateintheUnitedStates”[16].AnotherstudyfoundasimilarcorrelationinChina,ItalyandtheUSAusingsatellitemeasuresofparticulatematter,CarbonMonoxideandNitrogenDioxide[18].AstudyinEnglandcorrelatedCOVID-19lethalitywithNitrogenOxide,NitrogenDioxideandOzonelevels[19].AnItalianstudyshowedaveryhighcorrelationbetweenthenumberoftimesparticulatematterlimitswereexceededinanareaandthenumberofinfected(i.e.RNA-positive)people.Mostofthepollutedareas,bythismeasure,wereinnorthernItaly[17].AstudyinLondon,EnglandshowedastrongcorrelationbetweenhigherairpollutionandhighernumbersofRT-PCRRNAtestrates[20].ReturningtotheNewYorkdata,thehighestfractionofpeoplewhotestedantibodypositiveaftervolunteeringfortestingatgrocerystoresandcommunitycenterswasinNewYorkCity(20%)followedbyWestchester/Rockland(14%)andLongIsland(11%).TheregionswiththelowestfractiontestingpositivewereSouthernTier(2.4%),CapitalDistrict(2.2%)andCentralNY(1.9%).SouthernTierisahillyandagriculturalareaonthesouthernborderofthestate.TheCapitalDistrictcontainsthecityofAlbany,andisdependentlargelyongovernment,healthcareandeducationemployment.CentralNYcontainsthecityofSyracuse.Whileonceindustrial,mostemploymentisnowineducation,research,healthcareandservices.Thisevidenceisfarfromproofthatfalsepositiveantibodytestscanbeinducedbyhighlevelsofairpollution,butgiventhatRNApositivityandCOVIDdeathsareassociatedwithairpollution,itisahypothesisthatshouldbeconsidered.
Review of Timeline
Basedonthefindingsinthispaperwecanreviewtheevidenceforthetheoreticaltimeline.
Phase Description Exception
Pre-infection NoRNA,IgMorIgG. Asignificantnumberofoldbloodsampleshadantibodiesdetected.
Infection RNAshouldbedetectable. Outsidethescopeofthispaper.
Incubation IgMantibodiesshouldbecomedetectable[1][2].IgGmaybecomedetectable.
LimitedinformationasinfectionisusuallyonlydeclaredoncesymptomsorapositiveRNAtestisfound.Thedateofinfectionisneverknown.
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Symptomaticresolution
Ifapersondevelopssymptoms,theyshouldhavedetectableRNA,IgMandIgGduringthisperiod
Thereareseveralcaseswheresamplesarenegativeforallantibodiestested.
AsymptomaticResolution
DespitethelackofsymptomsinmanyormostCOVID-19RNApositivepeople,peopleinthisphaseshouldsimilarlybepositiveforRNA,IgMandIgG.
ThereislimitedinformationsincemostasymptomaticpeoplearenottestedforRNA.
Cure ThereisnofunctionalvirusleftinthebodysothepersonshouldbeRNAnegative.IgMandIgGwillbepositive.
AsignificantnumberofsamplesarenegativeforIgMandIgGevenmanydaysafterfirstsymptoms.
Post-infection AtsomepointIgMantibodieswaneandthepersonisleftwithjustIgGantibodies.
AsignificantnumberofsamplesarenegativeforIgG.Thereisnoinformationonimmunityfromre-infection.
Conclusions
PositiveCOVID-19antibodytestshaveonlybeenfoundinaminorityofpeopleinthegeneralpopulationevenwherethevirusisbelievedtohavebeencirculatingformonths.Thesefractionsaregenerallytakenastruth,butonewouldexpectahighlyinfectiousvirustohavespreadmuchmorewidely.Thereisalotridingonthisdata,ifonlyasmallminorityofpeoplehaveCOVID-19IgGantibodies,thenitmaybedeclaredbyvaccineproponentsthatnaturalimmunityisnotpossible,andthatavaccinemaystillbenecessary,evenmandatory.
Thefaithinthisdataishardtounderstandsincethereisnoevidencethatthevastmajorityofpeopleinsurveyswereever‘infected’(i.e.wereeverRNApositive)andnoevidencethattheantibodiesseenduringthesurveywerenotpresentinthepast.Ontheotherhand,thereisalsonoevidencethatthemajoritywhotestnegativeweretrulynever‘infected’(i.e.neverwereRNApositive).
Determiningimmunityisalsovirtuallyimpossible.Obviouslytherewouldbeethicalproblemsre-challengingpeoplewithavirusthatisbelievedtobefatalinsomepeople.Thereare,however,asignificantnumberofpeoplewhotestRNApositiveaftersymptomshaveresolved,andaftertestingRNA-negative.Thiscouldbeusedasevidencethatre-infectionispossible(strengtheningthecaseforavaccine)butgiventhatthesepeopleareasymptomatic,mayjustindicatefalsepositives[30].
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ThereisnoevidencecurrentlythatthepresenceofIgGantibodiespreventspeoplefrombecomingRNApositiveagainor,conversely,thattheabsenceofIgGantibodiesmakespeoplevulnerabletobecomingRNApositive.ProofthatagroupwithoutCOVID-19IgGantibodiesaremorevulnerablecouldnotjustlookatthere-occurrenceofRNA,becausethatusuallyoccurswithoutsymptoms.EvenifoccurrenceofRNAwithsymptomsismorecommon,onewouldhavetoshowthattheoverallriskofseriousillnessanddeathwashigher,afteradjustingforbaselinedifferencesbetweenthegroupswithandwithoutIgGantibodies.Theoneexperimentthatcouldshowwhetherantibodytestsareactuallymeaningfulwouldbeatimeseriesofalargenumberofpeoplewhoarecurrentlynegativeonalltests.Thisexperimentwouldbetimeconsuming,inefficient(asmanypeoplewouldneverbecomepositiveonanytests),intrusive(frequentnasalswabsandbloodtests)andobviouslyveryexpensive.Thosearepracticalconsiderations,butintheabsenceofsuchanexperimentwearealmosttotallyinthedarkaboutCOVID-19antibodytesting.GiventhebillionsbeingspentonCOVIDandthetrillionsbeinglostbytheeconomy,itsurelyisnotimpossibletodosomeworthwhilescience.Additionally,ifviruswaseverpurifiedfrompeoplewhowereRNApositiveandsymptomatic,thiscouldbeusedtoexposeanimals,andcouldbeusedtodetectantibodiesthataredefinitelyfromCOVID-19,andnotjusttoproteinsderivedfromtheputative30,000baseCOVID-19genome.
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Revision History Revision Major changes
3 Editorialrevisions.Executivesummary.Secondpapershowingnocorrelationbetweendiseasesymptomsandantibodylevels.