ANALYSIS OF CARRYING CAPACITY AND CRITICAL GOVERNANCE STRATEGIES FOR THE STRAITS OF MALACCA HM Ibrahim & Mansoureh. Sh Maritime Institute of Malaysia B-6-8.

ANALYSIS OF CARRYING CAPACITY AND CRITICAL GOVERNANCE STRATEGIES

FOR THE STRAITS OF MALACCA

HM Ibrahim & Mansoureh. ShMaritime Institute of Malaysia

B-6-8 Megan Ave II,12 Jalan Yap Kwan Seng,

50450, Kuala Lumpur, MalaysiaEmail: [email protected]

6th MIMA INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE STRAITS OF MALACCA"CHARTERING THE FUTURE" 1

OUTLINE

• Introductiono The Settingo Importance of Straits of Malacca

• Shipping traffic scenario

• Carrying Capacity of the Straits

• Critical Governance Strategies

• Summary & recommendations

26th MIMA INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE STRAITS OF MALACCA"CHARTERING THE FUTURE"

Maritime Institute Of Malaysia(MIMA)


VISION

“To be a Centre of Excellence for Maritime Policy Research”


• Established in July 1993

• MIMA is a Maritime Policy Research Institute to further national interests in the maritime sector

• MIMA takes a comprehensive approach in dealing with maritime issues, thereby contributing towards a meaningful, comprehensive a cogent maritime policy for Malaysia

• Comprise 4 centres and a resource library– Maritime Economic Industries (MEI)– Maritime Security Environment (MSE)– Ocean Law and Policy(OLAP)– Straits of Malacca (SOM)

• Resource Center


SERVICES

• Conduct research• Disseminate information through seminar,

conferences and other fora• Publish books, proceedings, opinions and

options• Provide consultancy services• Resource centre for maritime affairs• Network with national and international like

minded institutes


76th MIMA INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE

ON THE STRAITS OF MALACCA"CHARTERING THE FUTURE"

IMPORTANCE OF THE STRAITS

• Crucial waterway for global seaborne trade• 40% of world trade; worth US$6.8 Billion /annum• 50% of world oil trade• Economical lifeline to the littoral states; coastal communities• A major shipping route for petroleum and oil tankers, More

than 75,000 ships ply Straits per annum (2008)• A unique, tropical estuarine environment rich in renewable

and nonrenewable natural resources(525,906 tonnes fish landing in 2005, Malaysia Fishery Statistics)

• Coastal and marine tourist/recreation activities throughout the coastal areas of SOM


Energy Shipping Lane and Strategic Passages in Asia Pacific

11.0 mb/d

15.3 mb/d 5.5 mb/d

5.3 mb/d2.1 mb/d

2.2 mb/d

9

10

TYPE 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

VLCC/DEEP DRAFT CR 2027 3163 3303 3301 3487 3477 3788 3851 3753

TANKER VESSEL 11474 13343 14276 14591 15667 16403 14759 14784 14931

LNG/LPG CARRIER 2473 2962 3086 3141 3277 3343 3099 3297 3413

CARGO VESSEL 5674 6603 6476 6065 6193 6624 6340 6477 8467

CONTAINER VESSEL 14521 18283 20101 20091 19575 20187 20818 22615 23736

BULK CARRIER 3438 4708 5370 5754 6256 6531 7394 8129 9684

RORO/CAR CARRIER 1229 1761 1764 1980 2182 2440 2515 2863 3137

PASSENGER VESSEL 1919 3301 3151 3490 3033 2838 2299 2009 1870

LIVESTOCK CARRIER 42 70 108 108 80 46 45 51 51

TUG/TOW VESSEL 566 774 610 422 478 568 420 372 444

GOV/NAVY VESSEL 93 117 155 111 120 130 153 81 95

FISHING VESSEL 52 44 60 38 35 67 34 39 36

OTHERS 457 828 854 942 1951 982 957 1081 1101

TOTAL 43965 55957 59314 60034 62334 63638 62621 65849 70718

PRESENT TRAFFIC SCENARIO IN STRAITS OF MALACCA

Source: VTS –Port Klang

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SHARE OF DIFFERENT TYPE OF VESSELS IN SOM TRAFFIC COMPOSITION

Source: Malaysia Marine Department

MARITIME CASUALTIES IN SOM

• 475 accidents in period of 1975-1995

• Type of casualties:

– Collision ; 101

– Explosion ; 81

– sinking; 153

– Engine trouble : 123

– Others ; 18

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MAJOR OIL SPILL IN STRAITS OF MALACCA

13

YearVessel Name Type of oil

& HNS

Qty of

Spill/(000bbl)

Location/incident

type

1992 MT spirit &Ocean blessing Crude oil 100 Malacca

Strait/collision

1975 Showa Maru Crude 54 Malacca/grounding

1977 Evoikos/Orapian Global Crude 175 Singapore/Collision

1999 SS sun vista Fuel 14 Malacca/sinking

2000 Natuna Crude 49 Malacca/grounding

2001 MV indah lestari Phenol 650 Tonnes Johor Strait/sinking

Total 392 (000bbl)

Source: N.Basiron; Profile of Straits of Malacca

RISK GOVERNANCE IN CRITICAL GLOBAL

INFRASTRUCTURE (CGI)

• Increase in shipping traffic > 6.2%/year

• Risk of collision increases with increase in traffic

• As a first appraisal for Risk Governance, the Carrying Capacity to be determined


CARRYING CAPACITY

• The ability of a system to support an activity or feature without causing any damage to the system while allowing for self rejuvenation (UNEP,1996)

• The ability could support a positive natural increase in a system based on the system limitation (Johnson&Thomas,1996).


CARRYING CAPACITY FACTORS


CARRYING CAPACITY-QUEUING MODEL

• Carrying Capacity= Maximum Arrival rate*24*365

• Arrival Rate=(Level of Service & Traffic Flow Rate)


WAITING TIME; TRAFFIC FLOW RATE

– Sufficient time for a vessel to pass SOM and use its facilities, Waiting time depends on LOS and Arrival rate ;

W=

• TFR is the study of interactions between vehicles, drivers and infrastructure with the aim of understanding and developing an optimal transport network with efficient movement.(Ref:HCM,2006)

Source: Markov Process- Queuing Theory

/12

//1

2


VESSEL ARRIVAL RATE

Terminology (Transportation Manual):The number of vessels passing a given point per unit time

Vessel Arrival Rate= Number of Vessel arrive in one year/365/24

(Ref : Transportation system & Service policy ; J.G.Schoon)

No. Year Arrival

Rate(ship/

hour)

1 1999 5.00

2 2000 6.4

3 2001 6.7

4 2002 6.9

5 2003 7.00

6 2004 7.2

7 2005 7.2

8 2006 7.5


6th MIMA INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE STRAITS OF

MALACCA"CHARTERING THE FUTURE"20

CARRYING CAPACITY FIGURES

• Arrival rate at(TFR=0.27)= 7vessel/hour

C.C=7*24*365*2= 122,640 vessel/year

• MIMA projected 122,640 vessels in 2024

• World Bank predicted 122,500vessels in 2025

• JITI* projected 140,000 vessels in 2020

*Japan International Transport Institute


IMPLICATIONS

• Congestion will start when number of ships reach the Carrying Capacity of 122,640 annually (predicted be in 2024)

• Urgent need for a traffic system to avoid accidents/catastrophy

• Governance strategies required to ensure that transit through the Straits is maintained.

• Urgent study of risk assessment and risk management in SOM required


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RISK MATRIX

Risk =Probability*Consequence

• To facilitate the ranking and validation of ranking, it is generally recommended to define consequence and probability indices on a logarithmic scale

Log (risk)=Log (Probability) + Log( Consequence)

Risk index= Frequency Index + Severity index


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ALARP MATRIX; STRAIT OF MALACCA; 2000-2007;VESSEL NUMBER / TYPE

Acceptable

ALARP

Intolerable

Catastrophic VLCC/LNG

General cargo

RORO

Tanker

Severe Passenger vessel Bulk Carrier Container

Significant Fishing

Minor TUG,Navy

Live stock

Extremely Remote

Remote Reasonably Probable Frequent


QUO VADIS

• Carrying Capacity to be exceeded 2024

• Safety and security system in place

• Is this sufficient?


Safety Security

TSS EIS

STRAITREP MSP

VTS MMEA etc

DGPS etc.


STEPS OF CRITICAL GOVERNANCE STRATEGIES

•Vision•Principle•Objectives•Action plans

CRITICAL GOVERNANCE STRATEGIES

• Cooperative Mechanism

• MEH

• Bosphorus Straits traffic system

• Maritime spatial planning (North sea model)

• SOMMACIS

• Or some combination of the above.


SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS

• Carrying Capacity of SOM in 2024

• Risk analysis

• Risk governance

• Critical governance strategies

• First we need a “Vision for the Straits of Malacca”


Source: www.marinetraffic.comLocation: English channel

Legend


http://www.marinetraffic.com/

THANK YOU

Maritime Institute of Malaysiawww.MIMA.gov.my

Email: [email protected]


EPILOGUE

• Prior to 1972- Homocentric

• UNHE -5 June 1972- Biocentric

• UNED -3 June 1992- Ecocentric(Earth Summit)

“Straat De MelakaCentric”

ANALYSIS OF CARRYING CAPACITY AND CRITICAL GOVERNANCE STRATEGIES FOR THE STRAITS OF MALACCA HM Ibrahim & Mansoureh. Sh Maritime Institute of Malaysia B-6-8.

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