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Mar 12, 2020
AES CORPORATION
May 9, 2006
AES CORPORATION AES Kazakhstan Business Review
Dale Perry Vice President
1www.aes.com
Financial Goals
Revenue Growth
Gross Margin Growth
Earnings Per Share Growth
ROIC Improvement(1)
Cash Flow Growth
Subsidiary Distributions(1)
Restructuring Opportunities
Growth Goals
Platform Expansion
Greenfield Investment
Privatization/M&A
AES Goals AES 2008 Target AES Kazakhstan Role
AES Kazakhstan Strategic Overview
--
$3.5 Billion
13-19% per Year
11%
$2.6-2.9 Billion
--
--
--
--
--
Above Average
Above Average
Above Average
Above Average
Above Average
Increasing
Significant
Significant Opportunities
Focused Opportunities
Focused Opportunities
Contains Forward Looking Statements
(1) Non-GAAP financial measure. See Appendix.
2www.aes.com
Kazakhstan Highlights
15,185,844 Population (July 2005 est.) AlmatyLargest City Astana Capital
major deposits of petroleum, natural gas, coal, iron ore, manganese, chrome ore, nickel, cobalt, copper, molybdenum, lead, zinc, bauxite, gold, uranium
Economic Drivers
6.9%Inflation Rate (2004 est.) US $7,800Per Capita GDP (2004 est.)
1 (KZT) = 0.007472 (USD) Exchange Rate (01/10/2006) Kazakhstan Tenge (KZT)Currency
Kazakhstan at a Glance
3www.aes.com
40
50
60
70
80
90
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006E 2008E 2010E
Nominal GDP
Kazakhstan Electricity Demand Growth
Source: Company information
TW h
N om
inal G D
P (U
S $ B
illions)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Generation (TWh)
Contains Forward Looking Statements
Recent correlation between electricity demand and GDP growth expected to continue
4www.aes.com
Kazakhstan Electricity Market Characteristics
Generation Distribution Commercial BaseTransmission
18,200MW installed capacity (approximate)
67% Coal 11% Other thermal 22% Hydroelectric
50% private sector ownership (approximate)
AES is largest private sector generator
Three regional transmission systems – government owned
23,000 km of 220 KV – 500KV lines Transmission dispatch Manages system ancillary services
9 - 500KV interconnections to the Russian grid
Zonal transmission tariff ranges from $3.15 - $6.50/MWH
12 major distribution & regulated supply companies, predominantly government owned
Annual tariff review
Tariff methodology is cost plus profit
Moving away from Electricity Supply Organization (ESO) price regulation
ESO contracts typically range from hourly to quarterly
Bi-lateral contracts between generators/traders and consumers/traders
Government entities are required to purchase directly from generators (i.e. no traders)
5www.aes.com
Overview of AES Kazakhstan Power Assets
(1) Management only with no revenues Note: Capacities are gross
Ekibastuz Gres I 4,000MW (coal) Maikuben mine
Western System
Southern
Northern, Central and Eastern
Russia
Uzbekistan
Kyrgyzstan
RussiaShulbinsk 702MW (hydro)
Ust-Kamenogorsk 331MW (hydro) 1,356MW (coal CHP)
Sogrinsk CHP 301MW (coal)
Distribution Businesses Under Management
Eastern Kazakhstan REC(1) 280,000 Customers
Semipalatinsk REC(1) 180,000 Customers
Ust-Kamenogorsk Heat Net(1) 260MW (coal)
6www.aes.com
Kazakhstan Generation Market Profile
www.aes.com
2005 Generation (MWh) Market Share (%)(1)
KarGRES 10%
Total Installed Capacity = 18,200MW
AES 29%
Imports and Other 20% Aksu GRES
22%
GRES-2 12%Bukhtarma HPP 7%
AES Ekibastuz 18% AES UK HPP 4% AES Shulba HPP 4%
AES UK & Sogra CHPs 3%
(1) Excluding Western Kazakhstan 2005 generation figures
7www.aes.com
Kazakhstan Electricity Market History
Electricity sector functions as a single vertically integrated system operated by the Ministry of Energy
Sector is bankrupted by barter and non- transparent transactions
Rapid un-bundling of Generation
Creation of national grid company , Kazakhstan Electricity Grid Operating Company (KEGOC)
Stalled attempt to privatize distribution
Creation of a regulatory body to form electricity market and ensure its effective functioning
Cash collection and barter transaction issues are significant business issues
Kazakhstan and Russia are electrically disconnected due to high non-payment issues from Kazakhstan
Bi-lateral contract relationships develop
Lack of long term regulatory certainty
Reserve margins drop, with some load shedding seen in peak winter season
Convoluted mix of free market and regulated market begins to clear up
Implementation of zonal transmission tariff methodology
Continued integration with adjacent energy systems of Central Asia, Russia and China
Creation of the Wholesale Electricity Power Pool
New Electricity Law completely un-bundles electricity sector, creating retail supply companies split from distribution (wires) businesses
Sector sees regulatory interaction with both Anti-monopoly Committee (natural monopolies) and Competition Committee (market dominance activities)
Non-payment issues decrease as demand increases, in-line with country’s economic recovery
Kazakhstan and Russia are re- connected
No long term contracts exist in market
1995-1997 1998-2000 2001-2005 2006 and future
Contains Forward Looking Statements
8www.aes.com
Import/export approved by KEGOC
Regulation agreement is in place for all generators
Hot, cold reserve pool are nominated day ahead into
KEGOC
Balanced schedules submitted to KEGOC
Wholesale Energy Market
Bi-lateral trades monthly, yearly, multiyear
Kazakhstan Electricity Market Operation Model
Large Industrials
Transmission & Dispatch, System Operator
C
U
S
T
O
M
E
R
SMarket Operator
REC’s and Genco’s
Exports and Traders
9www.aes.com
Kazakhstan Power Prices are Some of The Lowest in The World
Source: IEA US DOE, national sources and ECON aggregate
Current Kazakh wholesale power prices are among the lowest in the world
E st
on ia
La tv
ia
Li th
ua ni
a
Bu lg
ar ia
& R
om an
ia
B os
ni a
& H
er ze
go vi
na
Tr an
sc au
ca su
s
Ky rg
yz st
an
U kr
ai ne
M ol
do va
R us
si a
K az
ak hs
ta n
C EN
TR EL
N O
R D
EL
U C
TE
0
20
40
60
U S$
/ M
W h
10www.aes.com
Tight Russian Reserve Margins Expected by 2009
Source: Renaissance Capital Report: “Form and Substance” August 2005
RussiaSiberiaUral North
Caucasus European
Russia
Equilibrium energy price (US$/MWh)
Required capacity payment (US$/kW*year)
Total wholesale price (US$/MWh)
Cost of new entry (US$/MWh)
Wholesale price discount to cost of new entry (%)
Peak demand (GW)
Available capacity (GW)
Available peak capacity (GW)
Reserve margin (%)
$16
80
27
27
0%
71
89
80
11%
$16
103
29
29
0%
9
10
9
(1%)
$13
97
26
26
0%
32
38
35
7%
$8
117
23
24
5%
31
35
32
1%
$16
98
29
29
0%
150
181
154
3%
Ekibastutz Target Markets
11www.aes.com
Contains Forward Looking Statements
U S
$ C
en ts
/ K W
h
2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E
300MW (Units 3 - 7)
500MW (Unit 1)
0
1
2
3
Potential AES Ekibastuz Price and Demand Scenario Offers Attractive Growth Prospects
AES Ekibastuz Repowering Investment and Potential Timeline at Assumed Power Prices
500MW (Unit 8)
500MW (Unit 2)
12www.aes.com
AES Kazakhstan Financial Overview
Revenue
Gross Margin
Income Before Tax & Minority Interest
Distributions to AES Corporation
2003
$103
$25
$21
$29
2004
$137
$36
$30
$8
($ Millions)
2005
$158
$40