A View from the US Sao Paolo, Brazil August, 2006 Jonathan Pershing, Rob Bradley Climate, Energy and Pollution Program World Resources Institute .

A View from the US

Sao Paolo, BrazilAugust, 2006

Jonathan Pershing, Rob BradleyClimate, Energy and Pollution ProgramWorld Resources Institute http://www.wri.org

B A S I C

• Observed 20th century climate change

― Emissions― Impacts

• Projections: future expectations for emissions

• US Policy― Federal― State ― Private

Overview

The US contributes the largest share of global GHG emissions…

Rest of World

US (20%)

Global GHG Emissions

Source: WRI/CAIT, 2000 Data

U.S. Emissions Mix

% S

hare

of

Fue

l Mix

Source: IEA Statistics

4

Source: WRI/CAIT

GHG Flow Diagram: Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions

GHG Flow Diagram: Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions

State GHG Emissions, 2001MT CO2 eq of CO2, CH4, N2O, PFCs, SF6, includes land use

Source: WRI/CAIT

Change over 20th Century:Annual Mean Temperature

ºF

Americans may soon have to settle for a Non-Glacier National Park.

Projections: future expectations for emissions

US CO2 Emissions Projections

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

EIA High

EIA Ref

EIA Low

IEA (USA & Canada)

POLES

Source: WRI/CAIT

Projected Future GHG Emissions Growth

% Percent change from 2000

Source: WRI, Baumert et al, 2005

“Heat index” combines temperature and humidity to measure discomfort. Washington DC July heat index was 87°F in 1970, reaches about 98°F in a 2xCO2 world and 110°F in a 4xCO2 world. Under BAU, we’re headed for 4x.

Drought Expectations

The Palmer Index is most effective in determining long term drought—a matter of several months—and is not as good with short-term forecasts (a matter of weeks). It uses a 0 as normal, and drought is shown in terms of minus numbers; for example, minus 2 is moderate drought, minus 3 is severe drought, and minus 4 is extreme drought.

A one meter sea level rise

US Policy

― Federal― State ― Private Sector

Bush Administration Climate/Energy Policy Initiatives

• Goal: to reduce US GHG intensity by 18% by 2012– Equivalent to ~4% reduction relative to BaU– Total emissions increase by 31% over 1990 levels– Further measures in 2012 if target not met

• Voluntary initiatives– Improve voluntary registry (provide baseline to give “credits” for

real reduction; likely to require legislation)– Climate VISION Partnership (12 sectors and BRT work with EPA,

DOE, DOT and USDA to reduce GHG emissions)– Climate Leaders (EPA corporate partnership with individual

companies; 50 companies now participating)

• Fuel economy standards for light trucks (20.7mpg 22.2mpg by 2007)

• Tax incentives for GHG reductions (RE, EE and sequestration)

USG Roadmap for Climate Change Technology Development and Deployment for the 21st Century

Source: U.S. Climate Change Technology Program Strategic Plan, Draft for Public Comment – September 2005

US Technology Program Budget

US Climate Technology Program

Activity   Agency 2007 Proposed Budget ($millions)

IGCC & Sequestration DOE 123.8

Hydrogen Storage DOE 34.6

Cellulosic Biomass (Biochemical Platform R&D)

DOE 32.8

Advanced Nuclear DOE 25

Low Wind Speed Technology

DOE 19.1

Transportation Fuel Cell Systems

DOE 7.5

Methane Partnership EPA 13

Numerous Proposals have been made in the US Congress… …

although few have passed

• GHG reduction

• GHG Reporting

• Supporting International Negotiations

• Energy Policy

• Appropriations

• Power Plants

• Transport

• Hydrogen

• Clean Coal

• Carbon Sequestration

• Buildings

• Waste recycling

• Science/Research

McCain-Lieberman Climate Stewardship Act

• Summary: – A bill establishing a market-driven system

of greenhouse gas tradable allowances– Cap: at 2000 levels by 2010

• Voting History:– October 2003: 43-55– June 2005: 38 - 60

Sense of the Senate (Vote 54-43)

• Congress finds that—(1) greenhouse gases accumulating in the atmosphere are causing average temperatures to rise… and are posing a substantial risk…;(2) there is a growing scientific consensus that human activity is a substantial cause…; and(3) mandatory steps will be required to slow or stop the growth of greenhouse gas emissions ….

• Sense of the SenateCongress should enact a comprehensive and effective national program of mandatory, market-based limits and incentives on emissions of greenhouse gases that slow, stop, and reverse the growth of such emissions….

-- US Senate: June 2005

The Safe Climate Act of 2006 (H.R. 5642, Rep Waxman)

• Freeze U.S. GHG emissions in 2010 at the 2009 levels.  • Beginning 2011, cuts emissions by roughly 2% per year

(reaching 1990 emissions levels by 2020).  • After 2020, cuts emissions by roughly 5% per year (by 2050,

emissions will be 80% lower than in 1990).• Implemented by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

(EPA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) through:– Cap-and-trade program (with auctioned permit revenues supporting

“Climate Reinvestment Fund”)– Standards for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from motor

vehicles that are at least as stringent as the current California standards.  EPA must tighten these standards in 2014 and periodically thereafter.

– Standards requiring an increasing proportion of electricity to be generated from renewable energy sources, reaching 20% in 2020. 

– Standards requiring utilities to obtain, each year, 1% of their energy supplies through end use energy efficiency improvements

Climate Action Plans

Source: Pew Climate Center

Renewable Energy Mandates

Source: Pew Climate Center

States with Biofuel Mandates

Source: WRI, CAIT

Ethanol Mandates Biodiesel Mandates

US Renewable Resources

Geothermal

Source: U.S. Climate Change Technology Program Strategic Plan, Draft for Public Comment – September 2005

• Goal: A regional cap-and-trade program initially covering CO2 emissions from power plants

– Stabilize emissions at base levels through 2014

– Reduce by 10% by 2018• Region statistics:

– 7 states represent 7% US total GHG emissions

1.5% of world GHG emissions ( Australia, rank 15th)

• Other states: MD (just signed), MA (expected to rejoin with new governor)

US market developing too

31

California Policies

• Transport–Starting in 2003,10% light duty vehicles

to be zero emitting–15% of buses with zero emissions by

2008• Registry of GHGs (CCAR)• RPS: 20% by 2017• $62 million public research program

GHG and Fuel Economy Standards

EU

Canada

US

Japan

Australia

China California

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

MP

G -

Co

nve

rte

d t

o C

AF

E T

est

Cyc

le

Fox News Climate Change Poll(October 25-26, 2005)

Crisis Major Problem Minor Problem

Not a Problem Don't Know

Manufacturers Government Citizens

All/Combiniation Don't Know

“Who do you think should be mostly responsible for protecting the nation’s environment?”

“Do you think the Global warming situation is bestdescribed as a crisis, amajor problem, or is it notproblem at all?”

US Shareholder Resolutions on Climate Change

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Source: WRI based on Investor Network on Climate Risk

Closing Thoughts

Concluding Comments

• Climate change impacts are already being seen in the US, and are projected to become more severe

• Federal action is limited: The Bush Administration has paid only lip service to the problem, and Congress, while authoring many proposals, has passed very few

• Most climate efforts are at the State and local level; these are beginning to shape both pubic opinion and corporate behavior.

• For the foreseeable future, the US is likely to operate in a highly fragmented policy regime, including combinations of government regulations, markets and technology, augmented by private sector initiatives; these will vary from State to State and sector to sector.

• Ultimately, the race is between effective policy and emissions reductions, and climate change and increased impacts. So far, impacts are winning.

– This may change in the next presidential election – but perhaps less than many would wish as a result of the entrenched nature of the US energy sector in the economy