A Study of Illegal Migration to India From Bangladesh Since 1975

A STUDY OF ILLEGAL MIGRATION TO INDIA FROM BANGLADESH SINCE 1975

INTRODUCTION:

The issue of illegal migration is highly emotive and sensitive in Bangladesh

and all governments have regularly denied the existence of the phenomenon.

Although this has often been flagged in the meetings between border officials,

Bangladesh finds it difficult to accept the fact that its citizens are illegally crossing

over into India in search of livelihood. Academic communities in both countries

have viewed the problem in the light of sociological and historical factors, but

Bangladeshi politicians have been very defensive and unwilling to examine the issue

through a rational prism. Rather ironically while Bangladesh push-sells its ‘hard

working, disciplined, multi-skilled, easily trainable human resources [which] remain

[Bangladesh’s] greatest asset’, and has been discussing the issue of legalising

migration of its working population to different parts of the world (including

Malaysia and Brunei), this subject remains a taboo as far as India is concerned.

The steady flow of Bangladeshis into India in search of livelihood had

initially resulted in demographic changes in the bordering states of West Bengal and

the Northeastern states of Assam, Tripura and Meghalaya. But gradually, this

phenomenon transformed into a much larger social problem in the far corners of

India, as Delhi, Mumbai, and Hyderabad, etc. Climate change, lack of new

agricultural techniques leading to low levels of food production, and inability to use

water resources efficiently 20 India’s Neighbourhood will mean that larger numbers

will seek employment opportunities outside, mainly in India.

1


DEFINITION OF TERMS:

MIGRATION DEFINITION:

Migration is the movement of people across a specified boundary for the

purpose of establishing a new or semi-permanent residence. External migration is

where residence changes between a residential unit in the DSA and one outside it,

and one outside it, and internal migration is where residence changes from one

residential unit to another in the same DSA.

Movement from one household to another household within the same

compound, home or homestead is internal movement. It is not classified as internal

migration and it is treated separately from internal migration.

ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION:

The act of entering a country without having the necessary authorization to

reside, temporarily or permanently, within its borders.

ILLEGAL IMMIGRANT:

The person who completes the aforementioned action; frequently called

“unauthorized alien.”

2


WAYS IN WHICH AN ALIEN BECOMES AN ILLEGAL IMMIGRANT:

1. Entering a country without the required valid documentation:

This applies to those aliens who intend to cross, or do cross, the border of a

country in any manner (by land, sea, or air), without the required immigration

inspection and/or authorization from the proper authorities (in the U.S., the

Attorney General). It also applies to an alien who successfully enters a country with

fraudulent documentation.

2. Remaining in a country without valid documentation:

This applies to those aliens who enter a country legally, with a tourist or

worker visa, but remain in the country after the expiration of their visas. It also

applies to those aliens who enter a country with a resident visa (temporary or

permanent), but, because of a lack of necessary documentation or other reasons, do

not continue the appropriate process to guarantee their right to legally remain in

that country. Additionally, it applies to the alien who remains in a country with

fraudulent documentation.

3


Much of the insurgency in the Northeast region, especially in Assam, revolves

around the issue of Bangladeshi migrants. The question of illegal migration is also

being viewed within the overall context of radicalization of the Bangladeshi society.

Cadres of the Jama’at-e-Islami of Bangladesh have been active in Northeast India,

with reports of Pakistani support to radical groups in Bangladesh adding another

dimension to the problem. Unless the issue of illegal migration is resolved

comprehensively, it will have implications for our foreign and security policy besides

being highly sensitive politically.

4


PROS AND CONS OF ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION:

Illegal immigration is defined as the trespassing across the national borders

in a way that violates the immigration laws of the concerned country. The most

commonly seen pattern of illegal migration is from countries with low socio-

economic level to comparatively developed ones. Although there are a myriad of

causes behind it, the primary motivation that plays a major role in illegal

immigration is the hope for greater economic opportunities and improved quality of

life. Crossing the prohibited borders is not the only way in which the process of

illegal immigration is carried out. There are times when a person enters a country

legally, but violates the terms and conditions of his visa and passport. If he overstays

in the destination country, crossing the legally allowed time frame, it equally

accounts for illegal immigration.

There are various models which purposefully justify the concept of illegal

immigration. At the end of the day, when we look at things, it is all about a person

trying to better his life. It is here that compassion and justice intermingle to form a

complex concoction, giving rise to a moral question as to who is at fault. Is it the

man who left the door open or the man who entered the house without permission?

This article focuses on the positive and negative aspects behind illegal immigration.

5


ADVANTAGES OF ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION

One of the prime advantages that the destination country faces because of

illegal immigration is cheap labor. This keeps the economy moving smoothly

as the immigrants fill up for the low-wage jobs.

Illegal immigration increases the consumer base for the variety of goods and

services produced in the country, hence boosting the economy in a big way.

Quite often, the illegal immigrants contribute to the social security funds and

then do not claim it back. This is add-on revenue for the state economy.

It has been observed that illegal immigrants pay sales tax on time and

diligently contribute to the revenue model of the country.

Illegal immigrants, who are property owners and possess real estate

properties, also pay real estate taxes and boost the economy of the state.

While purchasing real estate, the immigrants, in turn, generate commissions

for agents and brokers.

Usually, the illegal immigrants take up properties in depressed locales, where

finding tenants is a major difficulty.

Illegal immigrants also contribute to mortgage loan profits. The financial

and auto insurance loans immensely contribute to the insurer’s profit

margins as well as to the country’s income.

Since the illegal immigrants enjoy the banking services of the country, they

pay interests and dividends to the banks, again strengthening the country’s

economy.

6


DISADVANTAGES OF ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION

Due to illegal immigration, the overall population of the country spurts and

results in major difficulties. There is overcrowding and increased burden in

public places and public transport to name a few.

Serious judicial problems arise in case an illegal immigrant commits a crime

and escapes the country borders.

There is an increased crime rate among the population as well as increased

risk of cases related to human trafficking.

It is also seen that illegal immigration results in a burden on tax-based

resources, costing taxpayers billions of dollars.

Once the illegal immigrants fulfill the demand for cheap labor and low

wages, there is a continued demand for it.

There is a growing imbalance in the authorized immigration quotas which

results in disparity between the legal immigrants who diligently follow every

rule and those who don’t and still live together within the aspired territories

of a country.

The country invests in quite a fortune for illegal immigrant maintenance cost

and at the end of the day there is no government reimbursement of the fund.

The illegal immigrants may pose a potential threat to the working and

middle class citizens.

It has been thoroughly observed that those who successfully trespass the

border, inspire those who are left behind to tread on the same prohibited

path.

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There is a lingering fear of a gradual imbalance in the ethnic diversity, which

can lead to the dominance of one particular language or culture in the

society.

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9


ILLEGAL MIGRATION ON AGENDA OF INDIA-BANGLADESH BORDER

FORCES' MEET:

NEW DELHI: Following the recent violence in Assam, illegal migration from

Bangladesh is among the top issues to be discussed in the five-day meet between

Border Security Force (BSF) and Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) starting on

September 25 in Dhaka.

Various solutions including joint patrolling and fencing of vulnerable entry

points, mainly in Dhubri district of Assam, and imposition of night curfew in the

border areas used for such infiltration are expected to be discussed. BSF will give

BGB a list of Bangladeshi nationals apprehended while crossing the border in the

past one year.

10


STUDIES ON BANGLADESHI MIGRANTS IN INDIA :

Not many studies have been carried out in India about the nature, the

dimensions and the magnitudes of Bangladeshi migrants living in India, even

though it figures prominently during the times of communal violence, political

disturbances (e.g. Assam movement) and election campaigns. A few notable studies,

however, do exist on this issue, which are mainly done by the demographers as well

as by social and political scientists/thinkers. In this section, some of these studies

have been reviewed and their main observations/findings are mentioned below.

Samaddar (1999) in his book on ‘The Marginal Nation’ analyses the issues

relating to ‘trans-border migration’ from Bangladesh to West Bengal. He has raised

questions on ‘illegal migration’ and ‘national security’ within a broad perspective,

which accommodates the historical, cultural and geographic dimensions along with

the economic and demographic aspects of the phenomenon. He demystifies the

constructs of ‘borders’ and ‘national territory’ by bringing to the fore the

viewpoints of the migrants themselves. He has questioned the practical value of

these terms by showing how the flow of people across the Indo-Bangladesh border is

prompted by historical and social affinities, geographical contiguity, and economic

imperatives. Pitted against the natural urge for survival, ‘nation’ and ‘border’ are

easily marginalized in the minds of the people who then find ‘illegal’ ways to tackle

these man-made barriers obstacle in the path of their well being. The net result is

that the very future of transplanted concepts such as ‘nation-state’, ‘national

security’ and ‘national borders’ has fallen in doubt in the present-day South Asia.

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Based on data, reports and travels along the Indo-Bangladesh borders and to the

migrants and their hamlets, Professor Samaddar has analysed the problem of trans-

border migration.

The story of the massive exodus of people from Bangladesh and the process

of their resettlement of these migrants in West Bengal in the late 1940s and the

1950s was carefully examined by Prafulla Chakrabarti (1990) in his ‘Marginal

Men’. But it remains unclear how the partition of India and the consequent

population movements that followed were naturalised (thus also ‘nationalised’). In

spite of the trauma so vividly portrayed by Prafulla Chakrabarti, the immigrants

were naturalised in various districts of West Bengal. He has pointed out one reason,

that is, the predominantly urban milieu of the phenomenon. In this milieu, the

exodus and resettlement both were cataclysmic events; the process of naturalisation

in larger context escapes the eyes of the authorities. Peasant migration from

Bangladesh to Jalpaiguri, Siliguri, Dinajpur, 24 Parganas and Nadia in the 1940s

and 1950s retained the peasant nature of earlier population movement. The study of

Nanda in 2006 gives us an overview of the economic aspects, which leads to the

movement of Bangladeshi to West Bengal.

Pranati Datta (2004) in her article “Illegal Bangladesh Migration to West

Bengal” has also spoken about illegal Bangladeshi migration but her study is

confined to the State of West Bengal in India. She looked at the effects of the

migration and the ways and means to check it. She has extensively discussed the

factors like the Farakka Barrage, the Enemy/ Vested Property Rights, which was

enacted in East Pakistan during 1965 and various other political and religious

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issues, which led to the inflow of these illegal migrants into West Bengal. She has

pointed out that the political patronage of West Bengal acts as the main pull factor

for these migrants.

The article “Population Movement from Bangladesh to India: What Do the Census

Data of 1981 and 1991 Reveal?” by Nanda (2006) has also focussed on the major

determinants of the out-migration from Bangladesh to India. He has made a

detailed study of the ecological and economic factors, which were missing in the

writings of Pranati Datta.

However, the main attempt of this article was to measure the flow at the

State level, to pattern the locational spread of Bangladeshi immigrants in India, to

identify the specific geographical regions of concentration in terms of sex

composition and rural and urban destination. His study was based on the data

provided by the Censuses of India 1981 and 1991.

Sangeeta Thapliyal (2000) in her article “Bangladeshi Migrants in India: A

Cause of Concern” has also examined the various determinants of the inflow of the

Bangladeshi migrants into India. She has stressed more on the political problems

and factors, which have led to the inflow. She has further highlighted the problems,

which arose in the North-Eastern States of India as a consequence of immigration of

Bangladeshi migrants.

Hazarika (2000)’s study was limited to the States in the North-East of India.

In one of his writings in “Rites of Passage”, he has identified land hunger,

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population pressure and environmental factors in Bangladesh as the primary push

factors, which are responsible for the efflux of people, apart from the attraction of

greater economic security and the pressure of ethnic diaspora in India. He has made

a distinction between environmental and political refugees and provided valuable

information about the paths of migration across chars (river islands), the numbers

of entrants, and their destinations in India. His study was based on the extensive

fieldwork conducted in Assam and Bangladesh, and data were culled from

decennial censuses and other statistical records, and also through interviews with

the knowledgeable persons in area. He has criticised the vision and the will of the

Governments in both the countries and argued against the rights of citizenship

given to Bangladeshi migrants in India, an action that has caused instability in the

North-Eastern region of India as a whole.

Pramanik (2005) has looked into the various aspects of Eastern and North-

Eastern region of India and Bangladesh, particularly, the demographic changes due

to infiltration/ migration from Bangladesh into India and its impact on this sub-

region. He has shown that there has been a decline in Hindu population and an

extra-ordinary upswing in Muslim population in all the districts of West Bengal.

Further, another study on ‘illegal migration’ has shown that illegal migration from

Bangladesh to India are going on unabated during the last three decades. In

Bangladesh era, Hindus are coming as usual like in the days of Pakistan due to

religious persecution and political pressure but a new feature also started emerging

as people from majority segment (Muslim) for different reasons and purposes

started coming to West Bengal (Pramanik, 2006).

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Thus many studies have only focused on the social, political and economic

factors which have acted as push factors attracting migrants. But none of them has

mentioned about their ultimate settlement process. Certain questions on ‘social’,

‘economic’ and ‘political’ status of these migrants after their settlement in India still

remain unanswered.

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ILLEGAL MIGRATION ON AGENDA OF INDIA-BANGLADESH BORDER

FORCES' MEET:

NEW DELHI: Following the recent violence in Assam, illegal migration from

Bangladesh is among the top issues to be discussed in the five-day meet between

Border Security Force (BSF) and Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) starting on

September 25 in Dhaka.

Various solutions including joint patrolling and fencing of vulnerable entry

points, mainly in Dhubri district of Assam, and imposition of night curfew in the

border areas used for such infiltration are expected to be discussed. BSF will give

BGB a list of Bangladeshi nationals apprehended while crossing the border in the

past one year.

16


ILLEGAL MIGRATION AS A THREAT TO INDIA’S INTERNAL SECURITY:

Illegal migration mainly takes place in the eastern and north-eastern parts of

the country from neighbouring Bangladesh.

Bangladeshis have been moving out of their country due to economic,

political and social reasons. There is a serious crisis of ‘lebensraum’ (living space) in

Bangladesh due to alarming population growth rate without proportionate

availability of land. This is going to worsen further in the future with the impact of

climate change and natural disasters. As per 2011 estimates, the population density

of Bangladesh is 964 per sq km, one of the highest in the world. Only Singapore and

small city-states like Bahrain or the Vatican have higher figures.And, this is

expected to increase further in the coming years.

As observed by the Group of Ministers Report, illegal immigration from

Bangladesh has led to demographic upheaval and generated serious communal,

political, social and economic tensions and conflicts in several areas of the northeast

of India. The most affected states are West Bengal, Assam, Megalaya, Nagaland,

Bihar, and Tripura, although migrants “have spread to far off states like Tamil

Nadu, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Delhi.” Although the exact figure is

not known, it is estimated that there are about 15-20 million Bangladeshis staying

illegally in India. The illegal migration of Bangladeshis in fact triggered the

agitation in Assam by All Assam Students Union (AASU) in 1979-85. Despite the

Assam Accord of 1985 , the issue remains unresolved to this day and the “silent

17


demographic invasion” persists. Due to vote-bank politics, the motivation to block

illegal migrants from Bangladesh is absent. The gravity and scope of threats arising

out of illegal migration was highlighted by the then Governor of Assam, Lt Gen S.

K. Sinha in his report. Inter alia, he points out.

This silent and invidious demographic invasion of Assam may result in the

loss of the geo-strategically vital districts of Lower Assam. The influx of these illegal

migrants is turning these districts into a Muslim majority region. It will then only be

a matter of time when a demand for their merger with Bangladesh may be made.

The rapid growth of international Islamic fundamentalism may provide the driving

force for this demand. In this context, it is pertinent that Bangladesh has long

discarded secularism and has chosen to become an Islamic State. Loss of Lower

Assam will sever the entire land mass of the North East, from the rest of India and

the rich natural resources of that region will be lost to the Nation.

This applies to other states of the north-east, especially those that share

borders with Bangladesh like Tripura and Meghalaya. In Tripura, the migrants

have reduced the locals to a minority leading to rise of insurgent groups like All

Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF). Bangladeshi migrants have even spread to far off

states in the region like Arunachal Pradesh, and other parts of India and are seen as

potential threat bearers. Some of these migrants give shelter to Bangladeshi militant

groups like HuJI (B) and are very amenable to ISI activities. The Supreme Court, in

its 114-page judgment, in July 2005 observed that “The presence of such a large

number of illegal migrants from Bangladesh, which runs into millions, is in fact an

‘aggression’ on the State of Assam and has also contributed significantly in causing

18


serious ‘internal disturbances’ in the shape of insurgency of alarming proportion

making the life of the people of Assam wholly insecure and the panic generated

thereby has created a fear psychosis.”

Despite the enormity of the issue, the response has been grossly inadequate.

The entire stretch of 4,096-km India-Bangladesh border is heavily populated,

making monitoring extremely difficult. Fencing has to a large extent been acting as

an obstacle, but only 2,760.12 km have been fenced so far. The remaining stretch

should be fenced at the earliest, complimented with floodlights and hi-tech

surveillance devices. Most importantly, existing border has to be demarcated at the

earliest to make them free of ‘enclaves’ and ‘adverse positions’; much of activities

take place in these undemarcated areas. Although the Border Security Force (BSF),

in charge of policing the border, has been doing its job creditably, the force levels

are not sufficient to monitor the long and difficult border. Apart from raising new

battalions, it is important not to divert the BSF for duties other than border

management. They also have to be equipped legally to handle situations at borders

that include not only illegal migration, but also smuggling, drug-trafficking,

counterfeits, and militant movements.

Apart from creating physical hurdles, it is also important to discourage

illegal migrants through suitable deterrent legislation. Till recently, illegal migrants

in Assam were handled by Illegal Migration (Determination by Tribunals) Act,

1983, that was held as unconstitutional by the Supreme Court in 2005 as it was

“coming to the advantage of such illegal migrants as any proceedings initiated

19


against them almost entirely ends in their favour, enables them to have a document

having official sanctity to the effect that they are not illegal migrants.9 An exclusive

refugee/migration law is long pending. It is also vital to issue multi-purpose identity

cards, at least to curb further illegal migration. At some pockets of Indo-Bangladesh

border, issue of temporary work permits can be considered so that Bangladeshis can

come, work and go back. At the macro level, India should help in the overall

economic development and prosperity of Bangladesh so that its citizens need not to

go elsewhere for their livelihood.

20


PROBLEMS FACED BY INDIA WHILE DEALING WITH ILLEGAL

MIGRANTS:

* Security personnel have no coherent system to deal with massive flow of

Bangladesh migrants, so much so their arrest and prosecution is also rare. An

incident can be stated here to prove this point. Ranbir Singh Pura Sep 2002, border

Security officials (BSF) handed over 162 Bangladeshi illegal immigrants to the local

police. The police refused to arrest them because the local police station had no

space to house so many people.

* Dual immigration laws followed in India; The illegal migrants (determination by

Tribunal) Act 1983 is followed in Assam and the Foreigners Act 1946 is for the rest

of the country.

* Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) has also given its assessment stating that

some Bangladeshis are being trained as saboteurs in Pakistan, acting as a security

threat.

* Another difficulty is the riverine terrain of the border area, which makes fencing

difficult and poor border management policy

* Despite the border agreement signed by the then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi

and Sheik Mujibur Rahman. 40.6 Km still remains undemarcated and another 6.5

km is still disputed.

21


* Bangladeshi migrants fulfill the technical requirements of an Indian citizen by

possessing voter’s identity card, ration card, putting the local authorities on a fix.

* Further problem exists because the migrants have settled down permanently,

encroached lands and are enjoying the rights of natural citizens.

Bangladesh Migrants Present In various States

22

Numbers in

millionStates

5.4 West Bengal

4 Assam

0.5 Bihar

1.5 Delhi

0.8 Tripura

0.5 Rajasthan

0.5Maharashtr

a


ADVANTAGES OF MIGRATION FOR THE BANGLADESHIS:

* About 15 billion dollars are earned annually by Bangladesh migrants hence it’s a

great boost to the country’s GDP.

* Dhaka will have less population to feed if the exodus of people to India and

Pakistan continues. BSF argues that Bangladesh intentionally allows its national to

migrate to overcome the problem of population explosion.

* Thriving leather and processed meat industry success due to the cattle smuggling

from India, wherein Indian cattle are bought at throw away prices and the finished

product is exported to the Middle East at almost 3-4 times the cost price. One figure

estimates about .5 million dollar worth cattle heads per month from West Bengal

are smuggled into Bangladesh.

* A considerable number of laid off workers from Bangladesh Jute Industry have

sought haven by joining hands with the illegal traders in the cattle industry, if they

leave it now it will be a big loss for them.

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* Porous border allows for smuggling of large quantities in cash and kind.

24


ILLEGAL MIGRATION AND CHALLENGES FOR INDIA:

The issue of illegal migration is highly emotive and sensitive in Bangladesh

and all governments have regularly denied the existence of the phenomenon.

Although this has often been flagged in the meetings between border officials,

Bangladesh finds it difficult to accept the fact that its citizens are illegally crossing

over into India in search of livelihood.

Academic communities in both countries have viewed the problem in the

light of sociological and historical factors, but Bangladeshi politicians have been

very defensive and unwilling to examine the issue through a rational prism. Rather

ironically while Bangladesh push-sells its ‘hard working, disciplined, multi-skilled,

easily trainable human resources [which] remain [Bangladesh’s] greatest asset’,1

and has been discussing the issue of legalising migration of its working population to

different parts of the world (including Malaysia and Brunei), this subject remains a

taboo as far as India is concerned.

The steady flow of Bangladeshis into India in search of livelihood had

initially resulted in demographic changes in the bordering states of West Bengal and

the Northeastern states of Assam, Tripura and Meghalaya. But gradually, this

phenomenon transformed into a much larger social problem in the far corners of

India, as Delhi, Mumbai, and Hyderabad, etc. Climate change, lack of new

agricultural techniques leading to low levels of food production, and inability to use

water resources efficiently 20 India’s Neighbourhood will mean that larger numbers

will seek employment opportunities outside, mainly in India.

25


Much of the insurgency in the Northeast region, especially in Assam,

revolves around the issue of Bangladeshi migrants. The question of illegal

migration is also being viewed within the overall context of radicalisation

of the Bangladeshi society. Cadres of the Jama’at-e-Islami of Bangladesh

have been active in Northeast India, with reports of Pakistani support to

radical groups in Bangladesh adding another dimension to the problem.

Unless the issue of illegal migration is resolved comprehensively, it

will have implications for our foreign and security policy besides being

highly sensitive politically.

26


THE CAUSES OF MIGRANT FLOW

THE PULL FACTOR

Bangladeshis migrate to India because of both political and economic

reasons. The first wave of migration was prompted by political reasons. Bangladesh

21 During the early years after the formation of Bangladesh (this was also true in

the aftermath of the Babri mosque demolition in 1992) the changed political

situation led to considerable forced migration of Hindus into India, who took

advantage of the economic and social support extended by their relatives across the

border or even by those who had migrated earlier.

In the next phase, the flow of both Hindu and Muslim migrants increased

due to economic reasons, especially during the 1980s through the 1990s, however,

the numbers of Muslims were substantially more than the Hindus. Some political

parties in the bordering provinces of West Bengal, Assam and Tripura do not ppose

migration from Bangladesh, because the migrant population acts as vote banks for

them. That apart, some commentators have suggested that Bangladesh is

propagating the idea of lebensraum (expanded living space or habitat) which has led

to such large presence of Bangladeshis especially in the border region. Inevitably,

despite attempts by the Indian Government to resolve the problem, the solution has

remained elusive. Indeed most of these illegal migrants continue to provide cheap

labour in the Indian metros, while a sizeable number of them, especially in the

Northeast, who entered illegally in the past 40 years, are now landowners and

businessmen.

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There are several studies that have documented this problem. Apart from the

security considerations that this issue involves, the humanitarian concerns are

overwhelming for both India and Bangladesh. Human trafficking is flourishing and

has its network across the borders in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan. Families pay

thousands of rupees to middlemen to get into India from Bangladesh, and few of

them move towards the border with Pakistan. This flow of undocumented

population also involves thousands of children and women being trafficked across

the border. There is a deeply entrenched network on both sides of the border that

manufactures illegal documents for the migrants and facilitates the entry of (as well

as provision of residential access to) these undocumented migrants in India.

According to one study, earlier, each immigrant had to pay Rs 1,000 to Rs 2,000,

now they are being charged between Rs 5,000 to Rs10,000 per document per person.

THE PUSH FACTORS EMANATING FROM BANGLADESH:

The population growth rate in Bangladesh is tabulated

Table 2.1: Population Growth Rate in Bangladesh

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

1.59 1.59 1.59 2.06 2.08 2.09 2.09 2.06 2.02 1.29 1.55 1.45

28


According to the latest World Population Data Sheet brought out by the

Population Research Bureau (PRB) in 2011, Bangladesh’s population is likely to

reach 226 million by the mid-2050s—a 37 per cent rise from present levels.10

Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated countries in the world, with a total

area of 55,598 sq miles (143,999 sq km), a population density of 966 per sq km and

total cultivable land of 8.29 million hectares.11 The population of Bangladesh which

was 118 million in 1991 increased to 162.2 million in 2010, as per United Nations

estimates, and the population density will increase to about 1350 per sq km in 2030.

All indications suggest that, despite aggressive measures to control the birth

rate, the population will double in less than 40 years, with about 90 per cent of the

growth occurring in rural areas. The density will undoubtedly keep on increasing,

outstripping the state’s ability to provide for the bare necessities.

Presently a little more than one quarter of the population lives in urban

areas, where population density is 200 times greater than the national figure and

population growth is twice the national average. It is estimated that the population

of urban areas will increase to 50 per cent by 2040. Dhaka city, now inhabited by 12

million people, will be the fourth most densely populated city of the world by

2025.14 By 2030, half the population (nearly 100 million people) will be living in

urban areas, most of them below the poverty line.15 At present there is no specific

organisation in Bangladesh dedicated to studying this issue. The Bangladeshi

Supreme Court expressed its deep concern about overpopulation in the country in

29


August 2010. It issued a ruling, asking the Government to explain within four weeks

why it (the Government) should not be asked to take steps to control over-

population, create an independent ministry and make separate allocation for

population control.

This rapid population growth puts severe pressures on the limited land

resources, leading to land degradation in some areas. Bangladesh is characterised

by high agricultural density which coupled with high population growth puts

‘tremendous pressure on the existing land and resources’. Because of the growing

number of the poor, the access to development programmes is limited to only a

few.17 This creates incentives for the population to cross the border into India,

which offers greater economic opportunities.

THE BANGLADESH ECONOMY:

According to the current governor of Bangladesh Bank, the economy is now

on the threshold of a higher growth path; on course for a 6.7 per cent real GDP

growth in 2011, and is likely to be well above 7 per cent in 2012.18 The Bank’s

overall assessment of the economic activity indicates that the economy will perform

reasonably well in the coming years. As per the prediction of the official Economic

Review Bangladeshi economy (for the year 2011) is poised to attain a growth rate of

above 8 per cent by 2014. Although more moderate estimates project the economy’s

likely growth at 6.3 per cent, as against Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics’ projection

of 6.7 per cent, according to the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, Bangladeshi

economy grew by 5.7 per cent in 2009-2010, while the forecast was for 6 per cent

growth, despite the fact that the overall investment scenario remained depressed.

30


otwithstanding the above, experts feel, population must be regulated through

capital formation, which can ensure a higher rate of productivity at the existing

standard of living, to increase economic growth. As per the latest government

figures put out by the 2011 Economic Survey of Bangladesh, about 40 per cent of

the population lived below the poverty line.

The Government, exporters and policy makers, who had been seemingly

complacent about being immune to the global economic crisis fallout, even in the

last half of 2008, are now waking up to the problems associated with the demand-

drop in the US and Europe. The Bangladeshi economy, largely dependent on

remittances, has also begun to face the effect of the global downturn. Bangladesh

Bank data showed in 2009 that 3 per cent of Bangladesh’s $7.9 billion remittance,

during 2008-09, came from the Gulf, a region where economies are now contracting

because of the falling oil prices and global downturn. Remittance from more than

6 million expatriate Bangladeshis in the 2009-10 fiscal year totalled $10.97 billion

dollars, around 13.20 per cent higher than the previous year. In 2010-11, it touched

$11.65 billion and by May 2012, it reached $11.77 billion.

According to government estimates, the number of legal migrants from

Bangladesh exceeded 6 million in 2009, or about 4 per cent of the population. In

recent years, the annual outflow of migrants dropped appreciably, a trend that

exhibited a sharp increase in 2007 and 2008, when the number of migrants had

crossed the 8 million mark.

Around 80 per cent of all Bangladeshi migrants are located in oil exporting

countries, of which the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia alone accounts for 41 per cent.

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Other major destinations outside the Middle East include Malaysia, which accounts

for a hefty 11 per cent, but in terms 24 India’s Neighbourhood

of remittances its contribution is only about 3 per cent.

However, Bangladesh’s labour export, the country’s second biggest source of

foreign exchange, has fallen by 21 per cent in 2010. Due to political turmoil in

the region, there has been a drop in labour migration from Bangladesh and only

385,000 Bangladesh workers went abroad in 2010 as against 475,000 in 2009.

Kuwait, that had 40,000 Bangladeshi workers some years ago, accepted only 21

persons in 2010. Kuwait reflects the declining trend observed in Saudi Arabia and

the United Arab Emirates. The Gulf region absorbed over a half of the Bangladeshi

workers abroad who sent home $10 billion in 2008-09.

Bangladesh is a huge labour surplus country. According to the government

statistics brought out in the Labour Force Survey 2005-06, the country had an

economically active population of about 56.7 million, out of which 54.1 million were

employed in different professions. The study revealed that there were about 2.6

million unemployed people in Bangladesh, which would put continuous pressure on

the government to create more jobs to bring down the current rate of

unemployment of about 4.5 per cent.

DIMINISHING LAND AVAILABILITY

Agriculture is the backbone of the economy accounting for 20.60 per cent of

GDP and 48.40 per cent of employment. More than 90 per cent of the population

derives its basic calories from rice. Rice alone accounts for 18 per cent of the GDP

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and 55 per cent of the people are employed in its production, processing and

marketing sectors.

The problem is aggravated by the cropping intensity in Bangladesh that has

already reached 180 per cent, one of the highest in the world. Furthermore,

agricultural land is increasingly being diverted to other uses such as housing, roads

and industrial development. To be sustainable, future production must be achieved

with less land, less labour and less water with no harm to the natural environment.

By the year 2030, the population will be requiring 39.8 million tones of rice

and keeping the area more or less constant and the required total yield would have

to be 3.8 t/ha (tonnes/hectare) against the present yield of 2.58 t/ha (with average

farm size of less than 1.0 acre).26 It is a herculean task to say the least.

Given the large number of people dependent on food subsidies, regularly

occurring natural disasters have compounded Bangladesh’s problems. Floods and

cyclones followed one another during a period when there was global food crisis,

causing a severe food crisis in Bangladesh. In 2009, Bangladesh Government had

ordered the purchase of 400,000 tons of rice from India at TK 30.10 per kg or $430

per metric tonne.

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CONCLUSIONS:

Migration is a global phenomenon, and will continue to do so. Every

country, including India, aspires to regulate migration according to their

requirements. But, not all country is successful; and hence illegal cross border

migration has been a concern to them. By its very nature, illegal migration is

extremely difficult to measure; and in the Indian context, it is far more complex in

view of the ethnic ties that the migrants share with

the native population. It will remain so in the near future.

Efforts to control illegal cross-border immigration remain highly inadequate

in India; and will remain so in the absence of a political consensus on the issue. But,

the reality is that unabated cross-border immigration has enormous demographic

and social implications, capable of creating tensions and conflict between the

immigrants and the natives; and more so among the natives. This is particularly

worrisome in North-East India, which has been the victim of cross-border

immigration for the last several decades. Campaign against such migration in India

also divides its people on communal lines. Hence, the future tensions and conflict

will be not only between the immigrants and the natives, but also among the natives.

Bangladeshi immigrants in the region are actually ‘settlers’ and thereby a

competitor for space: land, water, services and jobs. Hence, their presence is

perceived as a potential threat, capable of altering the demographic and political

profile of the region. The natives often allege that the avenues for gainful

employment among low-skilled Indian are shrinking due to continued influx of low-

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skilled workers from across the border. Hence, cross-border migration contributes

to unemployment among the natives.

Further, illegal immigrants do have negative implications for states seeking

to provide adequate education, health, and housing. At the domestic political level,

there is increasing evidence of illegal migrants being included in the voters’ lists.

Therefore, we cannot just underestimate the social and demographic implications of

the illegal migration and this will be particularly disastrous for small states of the

region. Clinching evidence of this is the emergence of ‘Sumias’ in Nagaland and the

emerging demographic shift in Assam, where there is fear of the getting Assamese

reduced to a minority in their own land as the tribes of Tripura have been done in

Tripura. This demographic shift led to the emergence of insurgency movements in

Tripura and Assam. As time passes, it turns into a biggest challenge to the security

and development of the region.

Another aspect of illegal migration into India is that of the security aspect.

The presence of a large number of foreign nationals has also created a vulnerable

constituency for exploitation by hostile Bangladeshi and Pakistani Intelligence

services. Some insurgent groups have now become close allies of ISI. The threat has

been further compounded with the emergence of several Islamist extremist groups

in the region. Islamic groups have been silent on the burning issue of illegal

migration. ULFA no longer

talk about migrant issue.

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Certainly the ‘transnational Bangladeshi identity’ is likely to emerge in the

region in the near future given the ethno-nationalist aspirations that are brewing.

Indeed, India had chosen to ignore cross-border immigration; and its ramifications.

If deportations continue at current levels it will take more than 1000 years to deport

an estimated 15 million illegal migrants. Therefore, India needs to adapt time-bound

strategies to regulate cross border migration.

Successive central government and state governments have taken little

efforts to tackle the problem. Corruption in the local administration has further

compounded the dilemma. In the meantime, vote-bank politics is fast becoming a

serious challenge. However, there is need for creating people’s awareness on the

issue; and arrive at a national consensus. Based on the above discussion, the study

deserves to forecast few scenarios associated with immigration; and then revisit

some of the remedial measures, which are necessary to be carried out at the national

and local levels.

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A Study of Illegal Migration to India From Bangladesh Since 1975

Documents

seek employment

agricultural

bangladeshi

highly sensitive

vulnerable

border security

population

border guard