A global clean and sustainable energy future JUCCCE Kickoff Document July 18-19, 2007, Beijing.

A global clean and sustainable energy future

JUCCCE Kickoff Document

July 18-19, 2007, Beijing

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Joint US-China Cooperation on Clean Energy (JUCCCE)

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End-use energy demand* by regionQBTU

60124

92

110

186

264

51

44

41

* *

*

*

*

*

*

Rest of world

*

*

***

*

*

The US and China are 2 top energy users and generators of emission

*Transformation losses (power generation. refining) allocated to end-use segments

**Belgium, France, Germany, Island, Ireland, Luxemburg, the Netherlands, Norway, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom

Source:MGI Global Energy Demand Model

36Share of the U.S. and ChinaPercent

38

5.5

4.0

8.5

10.0

13.8

6.7

2.7

2.2

* **

*

*

*

*

*

Rest of world

Middle east

Japan

Northwestern Europe**

China

U.S.

CO2 intensity by regionBillion tonnes

40 43

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60124

92

110

186

51

44

41

264

* *

*

*

*

*

*

Rest of world

*

*

***

*

*

End-use energy demand* by regionQBTU

2.2

2.0

4.5

0.6

The US and China are among the largest energy consuming countries

*Transformation losses (power generation. refining) allocated to end-use segments

**Belgium, France, Germany, Island, Ireland, Luxemburg, the Netherlands, Norway, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom


CAGR, 2003 - 20Percent

36

1.1

4.4

Share of the U.S. and ChinaPercent

38

0.9

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45

54

*US

*North Western Europe

*Japan

China

Middle East

67

At per capita level, the US remains the highest, while China is likely to exceed world average in the next decade


80

85

*

*

82

*


0.2

0.7

3.5

Global average

2003 2020

End use energy per capitaMillion BTU

0.7

3.4

1.2

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Security of energy supply is increasingly critical in both countries …

Energy gap between demand and supplyQBTU, 2003 and 2030

Source:IEA “World energy outlook”, MGI Global Energy Demand Model

US China

7767

116

92

27%

33%

109

54

134

609%

19%

2030 2003 2030

XX%Imbalance as % of total demand

Domestic supply

Domestic demand

2003

US

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… and investment required to build up energy infrastructure is likely to soar

Forecast changes of investment to energy infrastructure* in 2005 - 30USD trillions

3.7

3.22.7 *

*Investment is needed to expand supply capacity, and to replace exhausted and obsolete supply facilities

Source:IEA “World energy outlook”; McKinsey analysis

3.7

2.5

2.0

*

IEA 2003 forecast

IEA 2005 forecast

IEA 2006 forecast

US China

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*US

*Japan

*North Western Europe

*China

*Middle East

3.8

Although the CO2 emission per capita is small in China today …


4.7

*

*

*

*

*


0.2

0.4

4.0

Global average

2003 2020

CO2 intensity per capitaTonnes per capita

1.5

2.1

1.3

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China will become the largest country of CO2 emission in 2020

5.5 6.7

4.0

8.5

10.0

13.8

2.7

2.2

* **

*

*

*

*

*

Rest of world

Middle east

Japan

Northwestern Europe

China

U.S.

CO2 intensity by regionBillion tonnes

CAGR, 2003-20Percent

Share of U.S. and ChinaPercent


2.3

1.9

4.20.01.5

4.5

1.2

40 43

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China's dependency on coal is one of the major drivers of CO2 emission increase

39 40 3949

2423 17 16

2123

2317

43

1422

2134

54

1193108 122

1**

*

*

North-western Europe

**

*

*

*

**

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

**

*

*

*

*

Primary energy source by fuelQBTU; percent; 2003

Unit CO2 emissions for heatingtCO2/Million BTU

*NG

*Oil

*Coal

*

*

Coal was the highest CO2 emission level among major energy sources

Source:IEA, MGI Global Energy Demand Model

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39 39

23 20

2423

8102*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

**

*

*

*

CAGRPercent

Primary energy source by fuelQBTUs; Percent

21 22

5461

117

1

*

*

*

2003

*

*

*

*

*

***

*

*

*

*

*

*

*0.4

U.S. China

Source:IEA, MGI Global Energy Demand Model

0.24.6

0.4

1.0

0.9

-2.7

1.01.44.7

3.5

3.3

1.5

The balance of different energy sources in the US may stay stable, while China may move towards more coal

CAGRPercent

1.0

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CO2 needs to be capped soon at 450 ppm to avoid severe environmental consequences

Source:IPCC, Hansen-Sato’s research, NASA, UN University, lit search

367315280

* * *

540-*

*E

Atmospheric carbon dioxideppm

Climate changes from 1900Degree centigrade

"The temperature limit implies that CO2 exceeding 450 ppm is almost surely dangerous, and the ceiling may be even lower" - Mariko Sato, Columbia univ., co-author with James Hansen

+*

+*

+*

+*

+*

Base temperature

in 1900

2005 Est.

2016 Est.

2050Est.

2100Est.

Possible scenarios

• Glacier dissolution in Peru which lead to shortage of drinkable water

• 50% decrease of tropical rain forest in Queensland

• Dying of shelf coral, starting from Indian Ocean• Glacier dissolution in Greenland

• Threat of drinkable water for 1.0 - 2.8 billion people

• 12 - 200 million people will be under starvation threat

• Annihilation of northern forest in China• Permanently frozen ground dissolution and

desertification in Tibet

• Dengue fever threats 50 - 60% of world population

• Destabilization of West Antarctica ice-sheet

!!

!!

!!

!!

!

!

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There may be significant imbalance between supply and demand in 2050

Source:Nocera-Lewis research; IEA; EIA; MGI Global Energy Demand Model

"Theoretical" supply/demand balance in 2050 with CO2 capped at 450 ppm

Supply • To avoid severe environmental damage from CO2

emission, CO2 has to be maintained at below 450 ppm, which limits the consumption of carbon related fossil fuel

• Carbon-free renewables supply also has a limit– Biomass: 209 ~ 299 QBTU, requiring 10 - 15% of

total land area in the earth– Nuclear: ~ 239 QBTU, implying buildup of 8000 new

reactors (1 gig each). – Solar: ~ 99 QBTU, which requires PV land area as

large as 1.5% of the total area of the U.S.– Wind: ~ 63 QBTU, if every site on the globe with

class 3 wind or greater were occupied with windmills– Hydro: 21~ 60 QBTU, if dams were placed on every

untapped river on the earth

Demand • Total population reaches 9 billion in 2050• 1,357 QBTU total energy consumption in the

aggressive case, assuming worldwide people all reach the current level of Western Europe GDP per capita

• 896 QBTU total energy consumption in the conservative case, assuming worldwide people all live at the current level of Equatorial Guinea

457350

95*

*

631~ 760

1,088 - 1,217

* (est.)

896 ~ 1,357

* (est.)

Up to 20%

Fossil fuel

Carbon-free renewables

Global energydemand

Global energy supply and demand gap in 2050QBTU

Global energysupply

A global clean and sustainable energy future JUCCCE Kickoff Document July 18-19, 2007, Beijing.

Documents

china source

energy infrastructure

energy users

enduse energy demand

clean energy juccce

china percent source

us slide

security of energy supply