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Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc A Glimpse of the Future A Glimpse of the Future Presented to Presented to ISHC, San Diego 2005 ISHC, San Diego 2005 by by Kenneth R. Greger Kenneth R. Greger CEO & Managing Director CEO & Managing Director Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc. Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc. © 2005 Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc. © 2005 Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.
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A Glimpse of the Future Presented to ISHC, San Diego 2005 by Kenneth R. Greger CEO & Managing Director Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc. © 2005 Greger/Peterson.

Mar 26, 2015

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Page 1: A Glimpse of the Future Presented to ISHC, San Diego 2005 by Kenneth R. Greger CEO & Managing Director Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc. © 2005 Greger/Peterson.

Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

A Glimpse of the FutureA Glimpse of the Future

Presented toPresented toISHC, San Diego 2005ISHC, San Diego 2005bybyKenneth R. GregerKenneth R. GregerCEO & Managing DirectorCEO & Managing DirectorGreger/Peterson Associates, Inc.Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

© 2005 Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.© 2005 Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

Page 2: A Glimpse of the Future Presented to ISHC, San Diego 2005 by Kenneth R. Greger CEO & Managing Director Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc. © 2005 Greger/Peterson.

Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

Before considering the future, it neverBefore considering the future, it never

hurts to reflect back on the past…hurts to reflect back on the past…

Page 3: A Glimpse of the Future Presented to ISHC, San Diego 2005 by Kenneth R. Greger CEO & Managing Director Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc. © 2005 Greger/Peterson.

Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

"We don't like their sound. Groups "We don't like their sound. Groups of guitars are on the way out."of guitars are on the way out."

Decca Studios when turning down the Beatles in Decca Studios when turning down the Beatles in 19621962

Page 4: A Glimpse of the Future Presented to ISHC, San Diego 2005 by Kenneth R. Greger CEO & Managing Director Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc. © 2005 Greger/Peterson.

Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

””There is no reason anyone would There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."want a computer in their home."

Ken Olson, President of Digital Equipment Corp Ken Olson, President of Digital Equipment Corp 19771977

Page 5: A Glimpse of the Future Presented to ISHC, San Diego 2005 by Kenneth R. Greger CEO & Managing Director Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc. © 2005 Greger/Peterson.

Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

To appreciate how Talent, To appreciate how Talent, Skill Sets & Recruiting will Skill Sets & Recruiting will

changechange

One must first appreciate how the Hotel Industry will

change…

Page 6: A Glimpse of the Future Presented to ISHC, San Diego 2005 by Kenneth R. Greger CEO & Managing Director Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc. © 2005 Greger/Peterson.

Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

Of course, there will still be a roomOf course, there will still be a room

Page 7: A Glimpse of the Future Presented to ISHC, San Diego 2005 by Kenneth R. Greger CEO & Managing Director Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc. © 2005 Greger/Peterson.

Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

And PDA check-in is a likely realityAnd PDA check-in is a likely reality

Page 8: A Glimpse of the Future Presented to ISHC, San Diego 2005 by Kenneth R. Greger CEO & Managing Director Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc. © 2005 Greger/Peterson.

Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

But gaining access to the room may involve…But gaining access to the room may involve…

Biometric Identification SystemsBiometric Identification Systems

Page 9: A Glimpse of the Future Presented to ISHC, San Diego 2005 by Kenneth R. Greger CEO & Managing Director Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc. © 2005 Greger/Peterson.

Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

Or RFID (Radio Frequency Identification)Or RFID (Radio Frequency Identification)

Page 10: A Glimpse of the Future Presented to ISHC, San Diego 2005 by Kenneth R. Greger CEO & Managing Director Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc. © 2005 Greger/Peterson.

Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

And then there’s the eFridgeAnd then there’s the eFridge(Even programmable by management for Happy Hour!)(Even programmable by management for Happy Hour!)

Page 11: A Glimpse of the Future Presented to ISHC, San Diego 2005 by Kenneth R. Greger CEO & Managing Director Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc. © 2005 Greger/Peterson.

Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

Sophisticated Data Warehousing Sophisticated Data Warehousing will be employedwill be employed

Page 12: A Glimpse of the Future Presented to ISHC, San Diego 2005 by Kenneth R. Greger CEO & Managing Director Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc. © 2005 Greger/Peterson.

Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

Interoperability will be crucial, but Interoperability will be crucial, but will remain a challengewill remain a challenge

Telephony

Point of Sale

BuildingControls

Entertainment

Distribution

Hotel Operations

AmadeusCendantPegasus

Sabre

HoneywellSamsungSiemens

AvayaCiscoNEC

NortelSiemens

InfoGenesisMicros

ParComcastLG

LodgeNetOnCommand

Philips

Page 13: A Glimpse of the Future Presented to ISHC, San Diego 2005 by Kenneth R. Greger CEO & Managing Director Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc. © 2005 Greger/Peterson.

Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

Blogs will have achieved a certain Blogs will have achieved a certain level of influencelevel of influence

•LaborLabor•GuestsGuests•VendorsVendors•Etc.Etc.

Page 14: A Glimpse of the Future Presented to ISHC, San Diego 2005 by Kenneth R. Greger CEO & Managing Director Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc. © 2005 Greger/Peterson.

Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

• Rooms that are light, noise and temperature Rooms that are light, noise and temperature sensitive in order to create a sleep profile sensitive in order to create a sleep profile tailored to each guest.tailored to each guest.

• Alarm clocks that control the increase of Alarm clocks that control the increase of light in a room rather than emitting a tone.light in a room rather than emitting a tone.

• Windows replaced by guest-selected Windows replaced by guest-selected computer-generated scenes to create a computer-generated scenes to create a more restful, relaxing in-room environment.more restful, relaxing in-room environment.

• In-room virtual entertainment centers.In-room virtual entertainment centers.

And there will be much more…And there will be much more…

Page 15: A Glimpse of the Future Presented to ISHC, San Diego 2005 by Kenneth R. Greger CEO & Managing Director Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc. © 2005 Greger/Peterson.

Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

•Room configurations better suited to the Room configurations better suited to the future traveler profile, particularly in the U.S. future traveler profile, particularly in the U.S. where more than half the population is where more than half the population is expected to be 65 years or older by 2010. expected to be 65 years or older by 2010. 

•Electronically controlled mattresses to Electronically controlled mattresses to provide guests with the right level of provide guests with the right level of firmness and support. firmness and support. 

•In-room exercise amenities and nutritionist-In-room exercise amenities and nutritionist-designed menu personalization.designed menu personalization.

Page 16: A Glimpse of the Future Presented to ISHC, San Diego 2005 by Kenneth R. Greger CEO & Managing Director Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc. © 2005 Greger/Peterson.

Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

And let’s not overlook Outer Space!And let’s not overlook Outer Space!

Page 17: A Glimpse of the Future Presented to ISHC, San Diego 2005 by Kenneth R. Greger CEO & Managing Director Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc. © 2005 Greger/Peterson.

Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

So what’s the impact of all this onSo what’s the impact of all this on

Talent Talent Skill SetsSkill Sets

& & Recruiting?Recruiting?

Page 18: A Glimpse of the Future Presented to ISHC, San Diego 2005 by Kenneth R. Greger CEO & Managing Director Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc. © 2005 Greger/Peterson.

Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

Talent Talent

- Entrepreneurs will start younger, potentially a negative impact to employers

- Mediators will be utilized to facilitate generational harmony Mediators will be utilized to facilitate generational harmony

- Potential shortage of humanPotential shortage of human capital, and a future filled withcapital, and a future filled with retirees:retirees: • • Between 2005 and 2015,Between 2005 and 2015, # of people 65 and older# of people 65 and older is expected to increase 26%is expected to increase 26% • • 40 to 54 yr-olds will shrink 40 to 54 yr-olds will shrink by 5%by 5% • • Americans 25 to 39 will grow by only 6%Americans 25 to 39 will grow by only 6%

Page 19: A Glimpse of the Future Presented to ISHC, San Diego 2005 by Kenneth R. Greger CEO & Managing Director Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc. © 2005 Greger/Peterson.

Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

TalentTalent - Dual income households will push for more flexible scheduling Dual income households will push for more flexible scheduling

alternatives to balance work and personal lives. alternatives to balance work and personal lives.

- A battle will rage between the public and private sector for workers:

- As early as 2006, 31% of the federal government’s workforce of 500,000 will be eligible for retirement- Retirements will sweep away the most knowledgeable workers in both sectors over the next 7 years- Rising healthcare coverage in the private sector may shift the hiring advantage to the government

- More women will be graduating and ascending to top More women will be graduating and ascending to top management; wage gap shrinksmanagement; wage gap shrinks

Page 20: A Glimpse of the Future Presented to ISHC, San Diego 2005 by Kenneth R. Greger CEO & Managing Director Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc. © 2005 Greger/Peterson.

Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

Skill Sets Skill Sets

- Executive Committee: The use and understanding of cutting edge technology - including information technology - will be critical to all functions, and to guest experience and personalization. Multi-cultural experience and sensitivity will be essential. Leadership and mentoring skills will be key to developing future executives re: mitigating the predicted crisis of human capital. Overall agility required.

- Frontline StaffFrontline Staff: It’s still a people : It’s still a people business - little will change, but all business - little will change, but all must be technologically savvy and must be technologically savvy and cross-trained accordingly. The need cross-trained accordingly. The need for multi-lingual capability will be for multi-lingual capability will be much more prevalent.much more prevalent.

Page 21: A Glimpse of the Future Presented to ISHC, San Diego 2005 by Kenneth R. Greger CEO & Managing Director Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc. © 2005 Greger/Peterson.

Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

Skill Sets Skill Sets - CorporateCorporate: Leadership and Strategic Planning; Information : Leadership and Strategic Planning; Information

Technology; Brand and Direct Marketing, including data Technology; Brand and Direct Marketing, including data capture and warehousing re: guest preference information and capture and warehousing re: guest preference information and use of sophisticated CRM strategies; Human Resource use of sophisticated CRM strategies; Human Resource recruitment and retention (including healthcare expertise); recruitment and retention (including healthcare expertise); Multi-national legal and business experience; Labor Law and Multi-national legal and business experience; Labor Law and negotiating skills; M&A expertise and Investment Banking on a negotiating skills; M&A expertise and Investment Banking on a global scale; Security/Privacy expertise; Financial Planning, global scale; Security/Privacy expertise; Financial Planning, Reporting and Controls; Spa andReporting and Controls; Spa andWellness; Engineering and Tech-Wellness; Engineering and Tech-nology, Purchasing/Outsourcing,nology, Purchasing/Outsourcing,Telecommunications, Entertainment,Telecommunications, Entertainment,R & D and more.R & D and more.

Page 22: A Glimpse of the Future Presented to ISHC, San Diego 2005 by Kenneth R. Greger CEO & Managing Director Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc. © 2005 Greger/Peterson.

Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

Recruiting Recruiting - Corporate Recruiters will emulate Corporate Recruiters will emulate

the NBA and start recruiting from the NBA and start recruiting from high schoolshigh schools

- Online auctions for temp employees re: just-in-time workforce objectives

- Resumes will go high tech and Resumes will go high tech and video-conferencing will be video-conferencing will be ubiquitousubiquitous

- The forthcoming human capital shortage will create a seller’s market like that of the late 1990’s

- Potential new business opportunity: Potential new business opportunity: Retirement consultingRetirement consulting

Page 23: A Glimpse of the Future Presented to ISHC, San Diego 2005 by Kenneth R. Greger CEO & Managing Director Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc. © 2005 Greger/Peterson.

Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

Recruiting Recruiting

As for retained executive search, this As for retained executive search, this headhunter feels pretty comfortable headhunter feels pretty comfortable moving into the future…moving into the future…

Page 24: A Glimpse of the Future Presented to ISHC, San Diego 2005 by Kenneth R. Greger CEO & Managing Director Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc. © 2005 Greger/Peterson.

Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

Recruiting Recruiting

After all, there are some things After all, there are some things technology will never replace!technology will never replace!

Page 25: A Glimpse of the Future Presented to ISHC, San Diego 2005 by Kenneth R. Greger CEO & Managing Director Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc. © 2005 Greger/Peterson.

Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

Page 26: A Glimpse of the Future Presented to ISHC, San Diego 2005 by Kenneth R. Greger CEO & Managing Director Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc. © 2005 Greger/Peterson.

Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

Challenger, James E. Challenger, James E. Workplace PredictionsWorkplace Predictions. California Job Journal, January 2004.. California Job Journal, January 2004.

Collins, Patrick. Collins, Patrick. Space Hotels - Civil Engineering's New FrontierSpace Hotels - Civil Engineering's New Frontier. 2002.. 2002.

Fast ForwardFast Forward: 25 Trends That Will Change the Way You Do Business: 25 Trends That Will Change the Way You Do Business . Workforce. Workforce, June 2003, June 2003

Hotel Goofs and Gaffes; Sheraton Hotels and Resorts Launches First Ever Written Service Guarantee Alleviating Top Hotel Goofs and Gaffes; Sheraton Hotels and Resorts Launches First Ever Written Service Guarantee Alleviating Top Ten List of Travel WoesTen List of Travel Woes. Starwood Hotels & Resorts, September 2002.. Starwood Hotels & Resorts, September 2002.

Hotel Room of the FutureHotel Room of the Future. Hotel Online, April 27, 1999.. Hotel Online, April 27, 1999.

Hotel Technology Next Generation (HTNG) Selects 21 Companies to Participate in Hotel Technology Next Generation (HTNG) Selects 21 Companies to Participate in Designing the Future of Hotel Guest Room Technology.Designing the Future of Hotel Guest Room Technology. Hotel Online, October 2004. Hotel Online, October 2004.

Major Forces Driving Change in the Multinational Hospitality IndustryMajor Forces Driving Change in the Multinational Hospitality Industry. International Hotel & Restaurant Association, . International Hotel & Restaurant Association, March 2003.March 2003.

Enabling the next generation of hospitality innovationEnabling the next generation of hospitality innovation. Microsoft Smarter Hospitality. Architecture White Paper, . Microsoft Smarter Hospitality. Architecture White Paper, November 2004.November 2004.

Patton, Carol. Patton, Carol. Future Shock.Future Shock. Workindex.com, May 2003. Workindex.com, May 2003.

Rice, DouglasRice, Douglas: Systems Interoperability: Taming the Interface BeastSystems Interoperability: Taming the Interface Beast (Hotel Technology Next Generation) (Hotel Technology Next Generation)

Schweyer, Alan. Schweyer, Alan. Take a Look in the MirrorTake a Look in the Mirror. Mansueto Ventures LLC.. Mansueto Ventures LLC.

Stanford, Kelly. Stanford, Kelly. High Wired:  The Hotel Room of the Future.High Wired:  The Hotel Room of the Future. Hotel Online, March 2004. Hotel Online, March 2004.

Top 10: Hotels WorldwideTop 10: Hotels Worldwide. IGN Entertainment, Inc.. IGN Entertainment, Inc.

Virgin Galactic. virgingalactic.com.Virgin Galactic. virgingalactic.com.

Research ResourcesResearch Resources (partial list)(partial list)