A Climate Change HDR: Update from Croatia Seth Landau, Susan Legro, Sandra Vlasic ESD COP Meeting, Bratislava October 15, 2008.

A Climate Change HDR:Update from Croatia

Seth Landau, Susan Legro, Sandra VlasicESD COP Meeting, Bratislava

October 15, 2008

“A Good Climate for Change”

• Background

• The Process/Methodology

• Key Findings:– Vulnerability&Sectors– Response capacities– Public awareness– Mitigation

• Lessons Learned

Background: Why Use Croatia as a Regional Pilot?

• Varied economy• Vulnerable to climate

change• Strong research

community• Good relationship

with government• Public interest• At a “crossroads”• ...but...

So, Let’s break the silence...

The HDR Process, 1/2

• Stakeholder consultation– Interviews– Project development workshop

• Finding a focus – For the report– For the work to be done (TORs)

• Assembling the team– International consultants– National experts + institutions– Project staff– Advisory Board (Stakeholders)

The HDR Process, 2/2

• Conducting research– Data; physical impacts; economics– Cost estimates for vulnerability and adaptation– Public opinion survey (1000 households)– Institutional capacity assessment

• NOW: Review Process– Review meeting with stakeholders– Expert peer review– Internal UNDP review (BDP and HDR experts)

• NEXT: Production and Launch– Lead-up to COP-13

Vulnerability: Key Findings 1/2 Climate variability is already having an impact on the Croatian

economy:

• The August 2003 heat wave caused an estimated 4% increase in mortality.

• The same year, hydro-electricity production decreased by almost 20% due to the drought. The likely cost for Croatia was EUR 96 million in compensating for losses in electrical production due to lower river flows.

• Wetland services from nutrient/ pollution removal are about EUR 238 million. This may be a low number because of other services (including wood products, hunting).

• 2000 - 2007 extreme weather events have resulted in average annual costs to agriculture of EUR 176 million – a figure greater than direct payments made to farmers by government during that period.

...key findings 2/2• Future climate change will likely have an impact on a

broad range of sectors, though it is not currently possible to say how with the level of current knowledge.

• It is likely that future climate change – changes in the precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, and the frequency of extreme events – will have an impact on some of the most vulnerable economic systems in Croatia.

• These systems, while not all involved in economic production and thus not easily quantified, account for an equivalent of almost 25% of the Croatian economy – EUR 9.226 billion per year.

Impacts on sectors and systems 1/2:

– Agricultural production, which will likely see a drop in yields of various crops, though maize is the only one which has been tested.

– Hydro-power production may drop due to less river flow

– Ecosystem services/wetlands - especially pollution removal and wood production – may be reduced because of decreased precipitation.

• Tourism sector: a peak time of the year may face challenges due to uncomfortably hot summers and opportunities due to better weather during spring and autumn. Impacts on “supply chain”? Impacts on attractiveness?• The coastline has numerous areas that may be vulnerable to sea-level rise (23/50/88cm) including Neretva Delta, Stari Grad on Hvar, the island of Krapanj, Vrana Lake near Biograd and Krka river.• The fisheries and mariculture industries will likely benefit in some ways from increased production, though there are risks from invasive species and sea temperatures that are too warm for production.

Findings

Coastal areas will likely be in danger of flooding from sea level rise perhaps over 100 square kilometres of land.

• People’s health – especially older people – will be more at risk due to heat waves during the summer. At the same time, mild winter temperatures will likely reduce health problems caused by cold weather. Additionally, changes in allergen patterns may cause problems.

• Certain groups in Croatian society are

particularly at risk due to the effects

of climate change• Workers in weather-dependent industries• The elderly

Climate change will not affect all Croatians equally.

Groups in society that face a greater risk from future climate change:

• residents of certain regions that face the double burden of low incomes and employment in/ reliance on weather-sensitive industries.

• the elderly, who face added health risks due to heat waves.

• poorer segments of society may find it difficult to cope with rising commodity prices (including energy and food) because of limited income.

GHG Emissions in Croatia

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Tonnes of CO2eq (x 1000)

1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

Energy Industrial Processes Solvent and Other Product Use

Agriculture Waste Removals (LULUCF)

Mitigation – further opportunities?(draft)

• Looking towards the year 2020, there is a large potential for reduction of emissions that can put Croatia on track towards reducing emissions.

• Croatia should be able to reduce its emissions beyond that of 1990 levels – perhaps as much as 18% through measures that would have either a small net economic benefit or cost less than 1% of current GDP for the year 2020.

• Massive involvement of the public, the private sector, and various government actors will be necessary.

Key Findings: Awareness

• Croatians are aware of climate change and very concerned about it.– 96% of Croatians think that climate change is “very

serious” or “serious”• Less aware of indirect effects (price increases)• Overestimate their knowledge about climate change

– 66% said they knew “a lot” or “a fair amount” about climate change

– Less than half of these people could name two causes or two consequences of climate change

Key Findings: Response Capacity

• Government is already taking strong steps to address mitigation (carbon fee, EE policies)

• Adaptation considerations must be integrated into sectoral and regional development policies

• There is a need to increase coordination among ministries– The NHDR recommends an Inter-ministerial Commission on

Climate Change

Capacities...

• The fundamental elements of a framework to mitigate climate change are being put into place.

• The government is already moving to address climate change mitigation through instruments such as the carbon fee and the European emission trading system that is currently being established.

• Many companies and NGOs are working to include emissions reductions as part of their programs.

• However, there is a need for increased coordination at the national level – including involvement of sectors such as agriculture and transportation in efforts to reduce emissions.

• There are also policy decisions being considered by the government, such as sectoral development strategies that do not take climate change issues into consideration

Lessons to Date

• Early stakeholder involvement is crucial– Framing report, identifying gaps, setting priorities

• Experts in certain fields may be more difficult to find than for an average HDR– Adaptation is a relatively young field

• Need to distinguish between an HDR and the National Communications to the UNFCCC– An independent selective report with

recommendations– Not a reporting tool, not comprehensive– Publicity and outreach, delivering messages

Lessons to Date

• Need to establish realistic expectations for research within the HDR process– Time and data will always be limited!– Focus efforts strategically

• Data availability is a challenge, particularly in adaptation– Need to look at global, regional sources– Consider many different kinds of data

• Identifying gaps in research and areas for further study is also important– Adaptation -- simply outlining the needs is important – Climate change and HD -- calling attention to links

This report has only begun the process by identifying some of the probable vulnerabilities to climate change. More work is necessary. Further research is necessary before implementation of actual adaptation projects. However, there are some no regrets measures that would be good regardless of climate change.

• ....coming out in mid-November

• UNDP Croatia NHDR 2008

• Thank you the Adaptation team/BRC/BDP!

Thank you!