5G Technolgy webinar, Shahram G Niri

Sponsored By

Exploring 5G: Performance Targets, Technologies & Timelines

Today’s Presenters

Gabriel Brown

Senior Analyst

Heavy Reading

Shahram G Niri

Independent Technologist

(& Former General Manager for the 5G

Innovation Center)

Moderator Presenter

• Introduction to 5G

• 5G Market Activity

• 5G Technologies

• Q&A

Agenda

5G Introduction

5G Market Activity

5G Technologies

Drivers For Next Generation (5G)

Growing Population

Hyper Connectivity

Limited Resources

Higher Capacity

Green Technology

Cost Efficiency

Quality of Experience

Number of connections and also the volume of data over wireless networks continuously growing at a significant rate

Users more demanding on quality & price

Capacity challenge is real particularly in radio

Radio spectrum the blood line of wireless is a finite resources, scarce and expensive

The data volume growth will continue but dependent on the service quality offered by the NW and of course the data tariffs

Sustainability of mobile broadband business - Ever increasing

traffic, higher TCO and flattening ARPU

3G & 4G both promised improvements in NW capacity, data rate, efficiency, cost and quality. 5G will be no exception but the sheer

scale of the challenges this time makes 5G research different.

Dr Shahram G Niri, July 2014 7

Values subject to assumption

Modest increase in number of devices and usage

Traffic growth: ~70% CAGR

In 2020 depending on the environment

traffic per km2 (1.5 to 60 Gb/s/km2)

UK needs at least ~ 15 - 20 x capacity (2013-2020)

Current LTE technology will not accommodate the predicted traffic growth

The next generation will need to be designed not for 2020 but for 2025-2030 capacity

Capacity Challenge

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Gb

/s/k

m2

Traffic growth for cases a to d

Case a: Inner London business Case b: Office Case c: UK Peak Case d: UK mean

Impact of transmission mode change (ISD=300, 20 MHz bandwidth)

X f

old

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

SU-MIMO 2x2 SU-MIMO 2x4 JP CoMP 4x2 SU-MIMO 8x2

Transmission Mode

Dr Shahram G Niri, July 2014 8

Significant air interface capacity - Focus on area NOT JUST link spectral efficiency - Designed for small Cells (capacity), extended to coverage - More spectrum (Licensed & unlicensed operation, spectrum sharing & other sources)

Super low latency - Sub 1 ms, TTI: 10-25 ms - Faster signaling for higher data rate, in line with data rate - U plan latency: frame structure, control signal timing, HARQ - For new services (MTC, gaming, ….) - For distributed control

Super reliable - For new services and applications - Smart transport, e-health, intelligent control, …

The higher capacity and lower latency necessary for wide range of services BUT not all the services required in the same location, at the same time nor by the same air interface

May need tradeoffs in capacity, coverage and data rate

Air Interface Performance

X10

(Faster than 4G) X100+

(Connections) X1000+

(Capacity)

10 100 1000

Sub 1 ms latency

99.99% reliability & availability

Tech 3G HSPA+ LTE LTE-A 5G

Bandwidth MHz

5 5 20 100 100+

SE b/Hz/cell

0.5 2 4 ~8 10+

Peak Rate Mb/s

2 42 & 11

326 & 86

1000 & 375

10000 & 5000

Latency ms

50 20 10 10 0.1-1

ASE Gb/s/km2

?

Dr Shahram G Niri, July 2014 9

OPEX

60%

CAPEX

40%

Greener Telecom

Lower CTO

Greener technology (energy efficiency) - Current 2% ICT share of CO2 emission is likely to increase - Power consumption doubled in past 5 years - More power efficient HW & SW, needed - Reducing signaling through intelligent O&M and SON - Alternative energy sources

Reduced Total Cost of Ownership - For x1000 need to achieve 1/1000 delivery cost per bit!? - Deliver cost will need to be recalculated as cost per bit/km2 - Saving through energy consumption - Saving through lower cost of operation (Plug & Play, Self managed NW, Zero touch)

- Spectrum and infrastructure sharing - Longer HW life cycle time - New business models -> new revenue models

Efficiency & Cost Requirements

Dr Shahram G Niri, July 2014 10

Multiple access Carrier bandwidth RT Delay

TDMA 124 KHz 150 ms

WCDMA 5 MHz 50 ms

OFDMA&CS-OFDM 20 ->100 MHz 10 ms

Small Cell / High frequency 100 Mhz -> higher 0.1-1 ms

Data rate 9.6 - 100 kb/s -> GPRS

2 - 42 / 100 Mb/s -> HSPA+ & MC

300 Mb/s - 1 Gb/s -> LTE-A

10 – 100 Gb/s Asymmetric & balanced UL/DL

Transport TDM Copper & MW

TDM/ATM Copper & MW

IP/MPLS Fiber & MW

IP/MPLS - Self Backhauling Fiber, MW & mmW

Core NW CS Core CS and PS core All PS (Flat IP) Flatter, NFV, SDN

Services

Voice /SMS Voice & Data /Multimedia

IP Voice & Data Mobile Internet

IP Voice & Data (HD, 3D, …) TV (Broadcast & Multicast), D2D

Service Pricing

Voice and SMS Usage based

Usage based -> Unlimited/Capped

Unlimited/Capped OTT, Cloud Free voice(?), Unlimited/Capped

Spectrum L band Licenced operation

L band Licenced operation

L & S band Licenced operation

Millimetre band (C, K, E, ….) Licensed & unlicensed operation

Spectrum sharing

2G 3G

4G

Full IP Flat Architecture Efficiency 1 STD

Capacity Spectral efficiency QoE New Services New operation models Others

Digital Mobility & Roaming 4+ STDs

2.5G GPRS

3.5G HSPA

LTE-A

Multi-media CS & PS 2 STDs

5G

1990’s 2000’s 2010’s 2020’s

SDR

Technology & Standards Evolution

?

Dr Shahram G Niri, July 2014 11

New Air Interface (Small Cells)

New waveforms New duplexing Higher order modulation Interference cancelation / utilization Massive MIMO / Distributed MIMO MU 3D Beam forming Multi-cell cooperation New MAC (Light MAC)

Radio Frequency

Millimeter wave New licensing regime Licensed & unlicensed band operation Spectrum sharing Dynamic allocation

Cognitive radio and network Opportunistic & adaptive use of resources Spectrum sensing Automated networks/ Plug & play Lower and smarter use of energy

Mixed Cell & Het-Net management Centralized RAN / Cloud RAN SW Defined Radio (SDR) & Networks (SDN)

Separation of data & control planes No cell architecture Integrated NW (Mobile+ broadcast/multicast)

Network sharing

Enabling Technologies to Make-up 5G

New NW Architecture

Intelligent & Adaptive Networks

Dr Shahram G Niri, July 2014 12

,

int erference 0

log 1j k

ki

i j

P

C WP N

Multi-cell Cooperation

Coordinated Scheduling 3D Beam forming

Higher order modulation

More Spectrum Carrier Aggregation Full-duplex radio Cognitive Radio Dynamic Spectrum Sharing Non-orthogonal transmission

More Antennas (Large MIMO)

Interference cancelation / utilization

Higher capacity to be delivered by a combination of several techniques AND densification of network (Small Cells)

New Air Interface For 5G

Simplified air interface capacity equation

- Much higher spectral efficiency - Enhanced frequency and time synchronisation - Better interference cancelation / utilisation - Higher order modulation and better coding - Transmit and receive simultaneously - More resilient to channel estimation error - Better use of highly fragmented spectrum - A much better radio resource management - Multi cell operation - Cooperative transmission in uplink and downlink - More antennas (larger MIMO) - Separation control and data plane

- Designed for small cells - A more suitable MAC protocol for small cell - Much higher energy efficient

- Enable new services - Scalable for various traffic requirements - AND more!

13 Dr Shahram G Niri, July 2014

New generations are mainly defined by new air interfaces / waveforms A new air interface / new physical layer not for a few dB gain but a total overhaul of the physical layer

Business

Model

5G

Lowering TCO (cost per bit / km2) Greener telecommunications Increasing life time of the products

(delivering technology through SW)

New air interface Spectrum & radio frequency Millimetre wave New NW architecture Intelligent & adaptive network

“Perception of infinite capacity for users” Quality of Experience (Latency &

Reliability) New services, e.g. Device 2 device

Rethinking spectrum allocation Dynamic Allocation Spectrum sharing Licensed & unlicensed operation Integrated NW & services

(Mobile+ Broadcast/Multicast)

New business models Network sharing New revenue models B2C, B2B, B2B2C, C2C Utility service type operation

An Opportunity to Rethink the Mobile Business

5G success depends not only the technology but also rethinking business models, policies and economics of radio spectrum regulation

Dr Shahram G Niri, July 2014 14

2G, 3G, 4G

5G (?)

5G 5G

BW: 100+ BW: 100+

Licensed Unlicensed / Soft Licensed

BW: <100

1GHz 3GHz 30GHz 60GHz 90Ghz

Bandwidth (GHz)

Cell Size (m)

Speed (Gb/s)*

Frequency Band

1-10 10-100

Licensed Unlicensed

Shared

Best use of low (below 6Ghz) & high frequencies (mmWave) - Sub 6GHz as core spectrum, mmWave (10-100 GHz) for ultra dense access & backhaul, Supplementary Services Ideally 100+ MHz channel bandwidth Dynamic Spectrum Allocation Coordinated Shared Access Use of temporal & local availability of spectrum Carrier Aggregation

Core Spectrum

Supplementary Spectrum

Spectrum remains a challenge for 5G and for the wireless industry

5G & Spectrum

Dr Shahram G Niri, July 2014 15

LTE A Mar 10

3G/ HSPA+

LTE B(?) Sep 14 R

12

4G / LTE Dec 08

Dec 09

Jun 13

R99 2000

R1

3 R

14

Sep 15(?)

5G 2016 (?)

(?)

Higher Order Modulation, D2D, MTC+, CA +, ...

Unlicensed LTE, ....

CDMA

New Waveform

OFDMA

5G Standardization & 3GPP Release Evolution

Dr Shahram G Niri, July 2014

3G: Started in 1989, standards in 1999, commercial in 2003 4G: Started in 2000, standards in 2008, commercial in 2011 5G: Standardisation 2016, commercial readiness in 2020+

16

• 5G will consist of a combination of techniques

• Much denser network and small cells will be a key part of 5G design

• Spectrum remains a challenge for the wireless industry; spectrum sharing will be critical in 5G

• A greater degree of network sharing may be needed

• 5G success depends rethinking business models, policies and economics of radio spectrum regulation

Concluding Remarks

Q&A

Thank You!